Five Reasons The A’s Will Be Better Than You Thought In 2008
by Nico on Mar 11, 2008 6:12 PM PDT
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PrintI’m feeling more optimistic about the A’s 2008 season than most fans, critics, and pundits are, and 31.84% of that is due to a condition called STPS (Spring Training Pollyanna Syndrome). But 68.16% of it is due to what I see when look at the roster and what I hear when I listen to the games. Here’s why I think the A’s, as currently constituted – which means Rich Harden and Bobby Crosby are healthy, Justin Duchscherer is recovered, Chad Gaudin is expected to be ok come mid-April, and Eric Chavez is in recovery mode with hope but no promises – can aim for a plus .500 season and a 2005-esque run at the division:
1. With Harden’s pristine health (until further notice), Gaudin’s raw stuff and increasing maturity/confidence, and with Duchscherer’s underrated “starter’s arsenal” of fastball, cutter, curve, occasional changeup, and pinpoint control/command, I think the “injured trio,” if basically healthy, will combine with Blanton to give the A’s a far better rotation than anyone really expected. Granted, there is ample potential for health to get in the way, but I believe that even post-Haren and pre-Gio-Cahill-Simmons-Fautino-Anderson, the starting pitching talent is there. Specifically, I have always believed in Duchscherer’s ability to perform as a quality #3 starter, and it appears we will finally find out.
2. I believe the A’s brass has finally embraced that a “take-and-rake, get deep into counts, don’t give up outs” offensive approach, and a “take calculated risks being aggressive on the bases, take it to the other team instead of always laying back, and make productive outs when it can lead to runs” offensive approach are not mutually exclusive. There is room for both, even if the first approach is the one you favor the lion’s share of the time. I think the A’s resistance to being creative, taking risks, and being unpredictable has cost them in recent years, when they simply haven’t had the talent to lay back and score a lot with a single basic approach. I know the A’s always talk a lot about baserunning, and being more aggressive and creative, in Spring Training, but I feel this year is different – that there has been a shift in philosophy from a front office that, to its credit, is always looking to avoid getting stuck in the “but we’ve always done it this way” rut. I think the A’s will score more runs than expected and that the increased emphasis on aggressiveness, creativity, and execution will be part of the reason why.
3. Here’s a shocker coming from one of AN’s oldest and most consistent Crosby-non-believers: I think Crosby will finally have his “breakout year” by way of realizing it helps to look at the pitch with both eyes and to shorten your swing a tad. Now don’t get me wrong: My definition of a Crosby “breakout year” might be different from yours. I could see him hitting .255/.335/.410 with excellent defense, good health, and an annoying penchant for overswinging at just the wrong times – and while that might not constitute the “breakout year” we had once hoped for it would make Crosby an asset instead of a liability. If it’s ever going to happen, I think it will happen in 2008.
4. For the A’s to contend, they would just have to hang in there (e.g., play .500 ball) until July 1st, because as in 2005, as with most young teams, the club is likely only to get better as the year progresses. It’s likely that both Gonzos, Carlos and Gio, will start the season in Sacramento and will prove to be too good for AAA competition by the end of June. They will be ready, willing, and able to give the A’s any needed boost to the lineup or rotation, as July 1st hits and service time is not compromised by a promotion to the big league club. Add those “high upside” options to the continued progress of Buck, Barton, and Suzuki – none of whom have even a full season of major league experience under his belt – and Oakland has a chance to come together and take off after the All-Star Break.
5. The bullpen is going to be a legitimate strength, making the rotation better by shortening games as necessary. The depth is impressive: Along with Street and Embree, Foulke is a wild-card but Andrew Brown looks awfully solid, Casilla, Blevins, and Devine all have plus-arms to choose from, and Henry Rodriguez has fast-track written all over him – move over, K-Rod, because H-Rod is on the way!
So I’m putting myself out there and calling for 86 wins in 2008’s “rebuilding year”. Until Harden’s first owie, anyway.
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i don't think it's a stretch
my brother and I were talking about this today. we both are feeling pretty good about our chances to compete. and yeah, maybe some of it is Spring fever, but for many of the reasons you've listed above, this may be a quick renovation, even by the A's standards.
I'm here to talk about the past.
I like the optimism
and in our division... I could see it happening. It's funny that you are feeling good about Crosby because I am too and I was talking with some other A's fans at work and they are as well! So maybe the good vibes are helping him out. Note to Devo: No, not that kind of vibe.
I'm still not sure the A's will contend for the West...
...but those are good reasons why they will be better than I thought -- particularly the pitching staff, which seems to be deeper than a lot of prognosticators are giving them credit for. But if Rich Harden goes down again, it'll be extremely difficult for me to have any semblance of optimism (for the team and even more so for Rich).
"[Moneyball] is huge [in Japan], I guess, so I'm like a David Hasselhoff type or something..." -- Billy Beane
by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Mar 11, 2008 6:56 PM PDT reply actions
Totally agree - all optimism is predicated
upon Harden's unexpected health mitigating Haren's departure better than we could dared to have dreamed.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If You Can't Find Optimism in Spring; Then Are You Really a Baseball Fan?
Why not believe the A's can contend??? Sure the club isn't bloated with big names, but there is a lot of talent there....and some attitude. The staff will be fine; out of all these new arms some will break out and contribute. There looks to be a few power threats on the offensive side...and sure, why shouldn't Crosby have a break out year with the bat?...and like always the A's GRIND...they will find a way and will entertain...
One question Nico?
would you be this optimistic if the A's were playing like the team across the bay?
by sf drift king on Mar 12, 2008 2:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Probably - I don't put much stock
in spring training stats/performance. Though if they looked as bad as SF does right now, maybe not. But if they looked so-so, yeah.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Bullpen a concern to me
It could just be Spring Training, but Embree and Street have looked a little wobbly. I'm not sanguine that our bullpen is going to be the strength that everybody thinks it's going to be. Plus I don't think we have starters who are going to tend to go deep into games, which is going to put even more stress on the bullpen.
Well, Embree has pretty much come out and said
that he's playing it close to the vest in spring. Add that to the generally tiny sample sizes, and you'd have a hard time convincing me that there's anything wrong with either of them.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
wouldn't worry about the pen
I think we should expect some wobbliness. Embree is a proven vet, he'll come around. Do you really expect Street to have an off-year? Doubtful, he still has improvement left in him. As for the rest....Albeit there are some question marks given the relative inexperience (minus Foulke), they look like good arms. If Foulke does hang in there and give us a 4.20 ERA I think that'll be a major contribution to the pen.
I agree that Embree's poor spring
is likely just to be "not airing it full-out" from a guy who relies so heavily on his fastball velocity. I can see cause for concern about Street, though, if fans in Phoenix have seen him with his elbow wrapped, talking about tightness, etc. and - this from a guy who has had injury issues surface already. But I if healthy, I concur that Street will be just fine. The changeup has elevated his game a lot.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
A 4.20 ERA is really not good for a reliever
That's essentially a 6th-inning guy.
The A's want him to be better than that, so they can flip him at the deadline. Otherwise, he's no asset.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
True
But I'll take a 6th inning guy. Aren't we grooming Casilla for that setup role? Isn't he our 7th inning guy? Last year Foulke posted a 4.3 ERA and had 14 holds for a team that had other go-to guys.
Keith Foulke is by no means going to be a coveted arm come the deadline. While I see your rationale behind wanting to move him, If they get anything for him it will be 3rd tier prospects or enough change to buy 30 coliseum dogs.
CORRECTION
I said last year when I meant HIS last year....'06. Are there not ways to edit your posts after posting? This is my first night posting after watching you guys hog the limelight these past few seasons of reading.
Sadly, no
You can edit fanposts, but not comments. It's irked me before.
The thing is, if the A's don't trade Foulke, they'll get nothing out of having him here. He's not going to get draft-pick compensation, because he missed all of last season. His contract is only a one-year deal with no option on a second year. If they just need a guy to eat innings, that's fine... but there are others, like Kirk Saarloos, who can fill that role amply.
Basically, if Foulke is pitching with an ERA of over 4, someone could be doing his job for free and he's not going to help the future club at all. Not only that, he's eating a roster slot-- I'd hate to see someone with relatively little service time get DFAed so the team can keep Foulke for a single season.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
"Are there not ways to edit your posts after posting?"
Yes - you just did it :-)
by green star oakland on Mar 12, 2008 1:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Here's how I see it
Last year, the A's won 76 games when they had to use two full teams of players. People jokingly called them the Sacramento A's, but really, that's basically what they were. Using injuries as an excuse isn't good, but when you use 50+ players it's valid. But when you look at the pure talent, I fully believe the A's were easily the most talented team in the division.
So the A's don't have Swisher and Haren this year. That'll probably hurt. But I think everybody else can pick up the slack. Buck for 140 games is an upgrade over Buck for 80 games. Barton > Johnson. Suzuki > Kendall. Anybody > Kotsay. Crosby = Crosby (he can't possibly be worse). Mark Ellis continues to do things with unicorns that one can't possibly imagine.
The A's didn't replace Swisher, but they might have added enough (development of young players counts as adding for this argument) that Swisher won't be missed too much offensively.
Losing Haren will hurt the starting pitching, but does anybody else feel like the bullpen has a chance to be the best in baseball? A great bullpen can make up for a so-so starting staff.
I'm also looking at things optimistically, but I just can't see them being worse than last year unless they all get hurt again. And, truthfully, I still think they have the most talent in the division. I just realize that it might take a little time for some of that young talent to hit its stride, and ovecoming the Angels this season probably isn't likely.
by thejd44 on Mar 11, 2008 7:55 PM PDT reply actions
I have always felt the A's would compete
They only lost 2 players. FYI Halos Heaven is now on the new 3.0 format. So if your looking for clockwerks, he is probably over there
dirty feeling
I just joined HH. it was so easy... just one click... oh no...
The A's colors are green and gold.
Doesn't the Rev make money
every time we visit the site?
That's been more than enough to keep me at arm's length...
Or is it only when you actually click on the ads?
(Are there really people out there who click on internet ads? Why? How in the world do those things ever make money? Clicking ads is like saying "Hi, please infect me with spyware and/or viruses while showing me ads for products I don't need.")
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I click ads
But usually, only on very targetted and focused sites. But then, I'm a computer geek, my system is locked up real tight.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
I'm still here too
I'm one of the guys that built the new SB Nation
by Trei Brundrett on Mar 12, 2008 7:04 PM PDT up reply actions
it's a stretch to believe that
Harden, Duke, Gaudin, Crosby, and Chavez will all recover to play most of the season. Least likely to stay off the DL? I'd still bet on Harden, but it's tough to bet against a bad back (or a pair of them). The question is really how good the A's can be when a couple of these guys are lost to the DL. If nothing else, I'm optimistic that this team will be more fun to watch than last year's.
by skutch on Mar 11, 2008 8:33 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
If Harden's healthy, the A's can weather injuries
from some of the others. I think Hannahan can step for Chavez pretty well for a given stretch, and the back-of-the-rotation depth of Greg Smith, DiNardo, Eveland - and soon Gio - can help the A's manage an injury to the middle-back of the rotation without everything falling apart. If Harden goes down, then as far as I'm concerned the A's can't compete.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I am not a firm believer
that Harden is going to stay healthy all season. This guys seems to be Mark Prior #2. I'm not going to make myself upset by allowing myself to believe harden will pitch anymore than two starts this season. If he does pitch anything more than that, then awesome, but if the last two years have proved anything, it's the Harden is one of the biggest question marks on the roster and I'm too afraid that playing the "what if" game is going to break my A's heart if our team starts off poorly and Harden goes down.
We've never been in that position. We wouldn't know how to operate, I mean, do we get him a corsage?-Billy Beane on signing a high profile FA
by DyeLongJustice on Mar 12, 2008 7:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Put down the Kool Aid
I love the A's , but 76 wins again is about as good as it might get. They can't hit for average or power and the outfield is better suited for Sacramento. The A's just won't be able to score that many runs. The staff should be okay, but not dominate enough to compensate for the lack of offense. Counting on Harden is like counting on Mark Prior.
Put down my Kool Aid!?!?
Why? So I can take a dose of your hateration on my Spring joy? No Way, I'll take the sugar water and red dye please!
c'mon man,
that's his opiinion, and some ppl happen to agree with it. I'm predicting a .500 season, roughly 80 / 82 wins is my best bet. I for one think this will be Harden's "return to health" season. I think he wants to do well so BB can trade him. I somehow suspect he doesn't like being here any longer and wants to get dealt.
by sf drift king on Mar 12, 2008 2:28 AM PDT up reply actions
Optimism
I feel excited as an A's fan about the 2008 season. The results so far from the spring training games do promote the optimism that Nico wrote about. Granted that the sample size is relatively small it's still a good sight.
What I didn't see in Nico's five reasons was that Cust is still putting up good numbers, the great surprise of Mike Sweeney, and hopefully Barton will continue to put up those crazy numbers.
With a full year of Buck, Suzuki, Cust, Barton, Ellis, and M. Sweeney the offensive should produce more runs than last year's team. If Bobby Crosby can stay productive / healthy than it will be an even greater bonus. The added run production will help our overall win count even though the rotation is still covered with health worries.
You can have all the optimism in the world but you'd still hold your breath every time Harden throws a pitch.
This will be an interesting year.....
Since it's now come up twice...
why are people assuming "a full year of Buck"?
Look, I love the guy's hitting approach, but the number of weird minor injuries he suffered last year was Baldelli-esque.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Cust is a monster.......
I feel like the A's have unleashed a beast in Jack Cust. For the 1st time in his pro career he has an assured place in the bigs. He is going to take the security the A's have given him, an MASH with it! All to the betterment of Chavy, Barton and Buck who should be hitting around him. I think that Ellis should get a shot at the #2 spot in the lineup. Its a great spot for a vet, hitting behind Buck, he can do the little things that the A's need in the duce spot.
we have a decent shot
better than what some commentators think. hopefully the a's can be this years version of the 07 D-Backs with a young team and all. the a's definitely did addition by subtraction this off-season. kotsay was past his prime, piazza was terrible, haren and swisher may have had the best year of their careers, and it was time to go younger. what i would expect opening day is a lineup of buck, ellis, chavez (DH), cust, barton, brown, crosby,suzuki, hannahan and by june/july it will probably be: buck, ellis, barton, cust (DH), gonzalez, suzuki, denorfia, murphy, and hannahan
"This guy threw at his own son in a father-son game." -Harry Doyle from Major League
by greenandgoldpolarbear on Mar 11, 2008 9:02 PM PDT reply actions
NICO - VERY OPTIMISTIC
with the outlook on the young guys getting "better and better" in such a timely fashion. It'll be closer to a miracle that allows the A's to hang in there till July and then continue to rise through September. Young players are more bound to go in and out of slumps than simply rise together in time for a playoff push in their first full year as you described. IF the A's are still contending in the race come July, it won't take long to hit that slump and slide from 5 to 10 games out.
I'm optimistic also, but let's be real in that our cause for optimism relies on Harden, Crosby and Chavez to be healthy. WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME THAT HAPPENED? We're living in Wonderland guys. Not to mention Harden, how about Gaudin and Ducscherer? Do we REALLY think all of these guys are just going to stay healthy throughout the year? Chalk it up as a victory if HALF of them do.
The division is NOT going to simply roll over for Oakland to have some magical rookie sensations trample them. Granted the A's were by FAR the most injured last season, and Seattle ended up with the opposite of the "injury bug" effect....Texas looked rather improved at the end of the year and the Angels are the Angels. There are three other teams in this division who have more reason for optimism than Oakland.
Now, that said...I'm pretty optimistic myself and I DO have a good feeling about this year. This is probably the WORST the A's will be for the next four or more years...and if you look at the talent it doesn't look all that bad.
I'll be there with you all at the home opener. So let's hope that slump that really nails our coffin for this year doesn't come until August or September. I want to see these guys in it just as bad as everyone else.
SPRING FEVER BABY!
I'm not sure what reason the Mariners or Rangers have for optimism
I suppose the Mariners could be optimistic that Bedard will win 20 games, but their offense is really somewhat terrible and not getting better.
No idea what the cause for Rangers optimism is supposed to be. They're in full rebuild mode just like Oakland, except their prospects are even further from the bigs.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Sure.
You're right, the Mariners could get worse but not by much. The Rangers aren't going to be worse. But my other points are still valid. The A's aren't going to touch 90 wins unless EVERYTHING goes better than perfect. 80 wins is a victory.
The Rangers aren't going to be worse?
They just traded one of the ten best hitters in baseball for prospects.
2/3 of their outfield is composed of Milton Bradley and Josh Hamilton. I don't know what the over/under on games played for those two is, but it can't be more than about 200.
They still have no pitching worth a damn.
I mean, there's some upside there, but I could easily see them losing 90-100 games.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Mariners in 2007
Were ridiculously healthy and their pythagorean record was 9 games worse than their actual record. They got lucky with injuries and lucky with wins (a significant number against Oakland). They were outscored last year.
When you consider that the best player on their team is 34 years old and doesn't exactly have skills that age well (A guy who's real value is in defense and speed should worry when he's in his mid-30s), I think expecting the M's to be above .500 is a little silly. Sexson and Vidro won't be getting better. I'm not a fan of their current home grown guys who are playing everyday in the majors. The Mariners really are a very meh team.
by thejd44 on Mar 12, 2008 12:20 AM PDT up reply actions
It might interest
you to know that Bill James, in a study in one of his abstracts found that Ichiro type skills DO AGE WELL.
It's why guys with skills like Giambi,or Richie Sexson, are said to have "old man skills", even when they were younger.
Comparatively, athletic guys like Ichiro, or Beltran, or Alfonso Soriano, appear to age better than guys with "old man skills".
This is because there are only so many DH positions available. And even DHs must run the bases. If you can't run the bases without tweaking a hamstring, an achilles, a groin, and going on the DL, your skills have NOT aged well.
They Mariners were indeed lucky with their pythag last year. But, they have replaced some of the team that produced that pythag. Bedard and Silva are a big improvement over the likes of Weaver, Ho, Baek. This does not mean that they are a great team, no. But you cannot just point to their pythag last year, and conclude that they are going to suck.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Re: Ichiro
I don't think Ichiro is anything like Beltran or Soriano.
Ichiro's batting average is inflated by getting all those infield hits every season. Once he loses a half-step or a step off his speed, those infield hits are outs, and instead of a .333/.379/.437 hitter he's .290/.335/.400 even if his actual ability to make contact doesn't dip at all. He also won't run the bases as well (or, at least, he won't steal as much/as effectively) and his defensive range will drop, too.
Ichiro is one of my favorite players in baseball history from the uniqueness standpoint. It's hard to compare him to anybody because there's really not anybody that much like him.
I've been trying to find his infield hits over his career but can't seem to locate it anywhere.
by thejd44 on Mar 12, 2008 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions
The thing about Ichiro
is that he probably could hit for power, he just doesn't choose to for whatever reason. If he loses a step, perhaps he'll change his swing to be more of a slugger.
Ichiro is basically one of a kind. He could start switch-hitting tomorrow and be hitting .300 from the right side by midseason. He'll find a way to keep producing offensively.
Defensively is a different story, as the various metrics and scouts already disagree on how effective he is in CF.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Ok, I should have been clearer
I mean fast athletic players. Ichiro is obviously not the same as Beltran, or Soriano in terms of power and also apporach, but they are all fast and athletic.
In his 1987 abstract, James did a study in the 1987 Baseball Abstract where he, matched young players who had similar value at similar ages, and then looked at the rest of their careers. Fast players / "young player skills" (SBs, runs scored) played a 43% more MLB games than the slow players / "old player skills" (walks, HRs).
Old: lowish BA, good OBP, good SLG, low SBs
Young: the inverse
Totals for each, ages, Win Shares:
21-23 615(Old)-614(Young)
24-26 1379-1482
28-30 1359-1518
31-33 1207-1340
34-36 674-916
37-39 214-346
40-42 20-117
Sure, an ageing Ichiro is not going to be less valuable on the bases. An ageing Jason Giambi, or Mo Vaughn, is going to be on the DL, and not even going to be able to run the bases AT ALL.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
not going to as valuable
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Rangers will always have trouble in that launce pad of a stadium......
No pitching want to go there, or stay there. Regardless of what happens in 08 and 09 for the Mariners, they have given away their future. All the better for the A's!
Humidor
Rangers management might want to look into a few Humidors. Seriously.
by Colorado Fan on Mar 12, 2008 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Have you been to Texas in the summer?
90-100 degrees at 90% humidity. Humidors are not the problem.
A bold forecast Nico
though perhaps not as daring as last spring's "this is the year that Vince Cotroneo hits the big time" prediction.
I'll hold my own wins forecast until the plane leaves for Japan--though I'm fairly sure it'll be lower than 86--but I do agree on the baserunning philosophy change. It does feel different this year, more fundamental (1st-to-3rd, secondary lead, lean on the correct foot, etc). Not at all unbefitting a team of guys still learning some of the finer points.
There is an A in Whimsy.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Mar 11, 2008 10:02 PM PDT reply actions
I must've drank the same
kool aid you did because I'm thinking very similarly. If this team can remain in the race until mid-September, this will be Billy Beane's greatest job ever.
by Tyler Bleszinski on Mar 11, 2008 10:17 PM PDT reply actions
I agree.
It would have to be his and almost any other GM's greatest job ever. Man this stuff tastes pretty good.
I'd love it to happen and will pray for it....but dude
Hmmmmmmm...
I smell Randy Bell
Randy, is that you?
"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagines such events unfolding!" Bill King
by Buck Turgidson on Mar 11, 2008 10:39 PM PDT reply actions
no?
shit... oh, that's what I smell. Just Major Guano from around the way
"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagines such events unfolding!" Bill King
by Buck Turgidson on Mar 11, 2008 10:48 PM PDT reply actions
My main concern: Cust in RF or no Sweeney DH: LOSE-LOSE
the offense is sparse as hell people. Our three best offensive players are Cust, Buck, and Barton. (chavez?)
After that, and maybe even before that, ROLL THE DICE. Over the last 4+ years, the A's offensive potential has never been realized. Players have consistently not met our hopeful expectations and we weren't able to unearth enough miracle players to offset it. Now its a little different, we have a whole new set of guys that could fill those long lusted after offensive hopes, but its going to take a lot. I'm not worried about the pitching, we have so many quality arms that hopefully we can trade several of them by the beginning of '09, but better hope for huge years from at least 2 A's on offense.
74 giggily wins!!
For the first time I can remember, I believe I am going to be happy with a 74 win season. Sure I could endure a 70 win season of the past, but this year will be different for Nicos reasons above. I don't sense the 4 to 5 year sub 80 string ('81-'86 & '93-'98) on the horizon. I think we have some growing up to do.......but I also think it will be damn fun to watch it happen. The possibility of a change in philosophy while loading our young guns seems to be the beginning of a new era rather than the ending of an old. I think ultimately I will be giggling like 6 yo in Disneyland, watching the new A's faces steal some bags, get some timely hits and make some over energetic plays while I blame losses on youth. I think this time next year we will have large sample size to fuel our "Division Title" fire.
The first rule of Oakland is - you do not talk about injuries. The second rule of Oakland is - you DO NOT talk about trainers." - Larry Davis
Not to rain on your parade or anything...
but who exactly do you see stealing the bases you think will be stolen? Denorfia? Emil Brown?
None of the guys the A's have picked up of late are exactly burners. I mean, there might be some thefts on targets of opportunity like Tim Wakefield, but the nearest legitimate base-stealing threats in the system (which I would define, I guess, as guys who can steal even when the defense knows they're going to) are all in A-ball.
I would encourage everyone to consider the fact that having a reputation as someone who will attempt steals-- without actually going out and DOING it very often-- may be the point of all of these various newspaper articles about baserunning. If you can get the defense to shift out of position and get a few freebie base hits without actually having to steal very often with the various sub-70% success rate baserunners the A's have lying around these days, why wouldn't you try?
It wouldn't surprise me if the A's stolen base rate after April (you have to advertise a little to get people to buy your act) was as low as it's ever been.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
did you define Eric Byrnes as a base stealing threat?
yet, he is.
Go A's!
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 12, 2008 12:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Had I been looking at his A-ball stats
in, I guess, 1999, yes, I would have flagged him as a base stealing threat. No one on the current starting roster other than Emil Brown (whose best thievery days are clearly behind him) has ever stolen as many bases as Byrnes did that year, at any level.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I think Buck, Denorfia, and Crosby are all
potential base stealing threats - not 50 steals but maybe 20 - if they get on base! And certainly those three and Ellis and maybe even E. Brown are capable of taking the extra base aggressively, whether that means going first to third, or tagging up from first on a fly ball, or taking advantage of a short wild pitch.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
won't Cust be in LF...
when Sweeney is DHing? Brown (and, eventually, CarGon) will play RF. Buck will play CF.
What they lose in defense, they'll more than make up for in offense.
Go A's!
Mid-2008 OF / DH / 1B / Backups
LF: Ryan Sweeney / Cust
CF: Carlos Gonzalez / Denorfia
RF: Buck
DH: Cust / Mike Sweeney
1B: Daric Barton / Mike Sweeney
I just don't see Buck playing any CF for the A's, unless we're in a 2007 pinch.
by Colorado Fan on Mar 12, 2008 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions
it will look that way at mid-2008, hopefully...
but, I don't see the A's starting off the season with both Carlos Gonzalez and Ryan Sweeney on the 25 man roster. I'm not sure they'll start the season with Denorfia on it either. He really doesn't look ready to me.
Seems a shame to waste Linden's good spring by not starting with him on the 25 and, perhaps, showcase him for a trade when Gonzalez, Sweeney and/or Denorfia are ready to play regularly.
Go A's!
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 12, 2008 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions
You underestimate the reluctance of GMs
to trade for something they could have had for free a few months earlier. It may be economically irrational, but people don't think that way.
And I'm not sure his spring, or even a few good months in the regular season, is enough to shake the aura of bust-hood that surrounds him in any case. He's a flier and an injury fill-in, but he's not any kind of trade chit.
If Denorfia needs more time to get his bat speed back, I could see him potentially breaking camp with the team. Or I suppose he could be the 4th outfielder.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I like this offense...
it is infinitely better than last year's, just becasue Kotsay and Kendall are gone. Barton will be better than Piazza.
Swish is tearing it up in Spring Training and most will think that is a loss. But, Conrad has a higher OPS. I am rooting for Brooks to make the team.
If Chavez isn't healthy, Hannahan will be better than last year's Chavvy, if not better than historical Chavvy.
Murphy might prove better than Scoot. He seems to have slightly more pop.
This offense is better this year than last.
The pitching? Like Nico said... if Harden stays healthy, I think 86 wins is a floor, not a ceiling.
Go A's!
multiplying zero by infinity?
Dude, you're blowin' my mind.
I wasn't thinking about anything. I'll have to try to do that more often. @('.')@
When I first saw this comment
I saw "multiplying Zito by infinity," which could be a dream (if you're Alyssa Milano) or a nightmare (if you're a Giants fan).
I guess it's mind-blowing either way.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Not too sure about the offense...
they still have to limit the DP's and hit more with men in scoring position.
If all works out, its better late than never.
Linden
I'd rather see Linden make the team than Emil Brown - no particular dislike of Brown, but I like Linden and his versatility (though the mouth could be silenced and I'd be ok)
Mike "lego my" Gallego
by catfish hunter on Mar 11, 2008 11:29 PM PDT reply actions
So Crosby is going to be the new T-Long?
If I'm reading point 3 correctly, isn't that what you are saying?
And I mean the post-contract, never met a lame-ass looping swing he didn't like T-Long.
:(
So the site upgrade really is that easy.
So we can talk "respectful" trash that much easier now?
Like it, so far.
P.S. You guys suck. But wow, it's gonna be an interesting 2009-2011...
Wake me up on opening day.
you'll be watching our dust all season in 2008, haloboy...
and, wondering what the f**k happened. The A's were supposed to be rebuilding this year.
Go A's!
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 12, 2008 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions
You have a good for a few years team..
but our team is young and getting better everyday. You will be lucky to come close to contending with post 2009.
Another good article Nico.
but let's not kid ourselves here. I too think the A's will overachieve and do better than everyone thinks, but that won't equate to 'competing' for the Division or even the wild card.
The AL this year will be like the NBA's Western conference. The strength of the competition was only one of the reason's why BB decided to rebuild.
NYY DET ANA
BOS CLE SEA
TOR CWS
MIN
Meh
The Twins are actually going to suck this year. Their offense is atrocious and not getting any better, and at least one of their pitching prospects is going to flame out.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Fire Emil Now!
I'm starting the irrational dislike for our only 'real' activity in the Free Agent market since Arthur Rhodes.
No Harden and No Chavez make the A's go, something something...
Uh
Loaiza?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
c&*# I knew I missed one...
I was picking my mind real free agents that busted. (Excluding Big Hurt since he only busted out for MVP consideration)
No Harden and No Chavez make the A's go, something something...
Give us a play by play on whats being said
Your 2008 East Bay Athletic Rivercats of the greater Fremont Area!
I have one great reson for optimsm....
Daric Barton. I think we are truly going to see at the age of 22 a great ball player in the making. He has always played ball well and has a high ceiling. I say watch for him to be the big contributer and consistent bat on offense... Im guessing .298 18 jacks 68 RBI's....... at 22.
Your 2008 East Bay Athletic Rivercats of the greater Fremont Area!
I don't think he'll hit 18 HRs, but
I'd be more surprised if he hit .260 than if he hit .310 - at age 22.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'm in!
Hand me a glass of that kool aid Nico, I am right there with you!
This team has a lot of character, guts and these guys are hungry. There seems to be a pervasively positive attitude and healthy competition to succeed. Hell, if anything, it will be much more fun to watch than the daily stretcher procession of last season. I think we have got the nucleus to be good for a while again. Thank you Billy.
"Doesn't play well with the other children." Ms. Darias, principal, Broad Ave School
well, this doesn't seem fair
The guys are hungry, but all you can offer them is Kool-Aid?
I wasn't thinking about anything. I'll have to try to do that more often. @('.')@
Blanton...Eveland...
Yeah, they're hungry.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
they've also got guts
I wasn't thinking about anything. I'll have to try to do that more often. @('.')@
I Was At The Game In ST When Duke:
Was told that he would be working out of the bullpen. He was miffed when he left the field and I didn't know why. When I found out that he'd been told that he wouldn't start I knew that look in his eye.
He had a fire burning inside of him. I am EXTREMELY excited for him to finally get a chance to be an ACE.
I think starting will actually be easier on his back/hip
(he seems to think so), and I just think he will do better than most expect pitching in the rotation. Duke starting is one of the reasons I'm bullish on the season - guys with his command, cutter, and curve can get guys out, period.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Ah... but does he have... moxie?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
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