11 Games Left, Exciting Times
by Tyler Bleszinski on Mar 9, 2008 11:58 PM PDT
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PrintThis is an unconventional season for A's fans. At least compared to recent seasons. The A's are viewed by many as the team that is little to no threat in the American League since the word "rebuilding" doesn't usually have any correlation to the word "contending". They are seen as mutually exclusive.
Yet it appears to be one of the more fascinating spring trainings in recent memory. I still don't know who the A's will have as their starting center fielder come opening day. We still don't know who the A's fifth starter will be. Or even their third baseman right now. You could make educated guesses based on things like past performance and options left (Ryan Sweeney, Dana Eveland and Jack Hannahan) but that's about it. It could also very well be other options like Chris Denorfia, Greg Smith or Donnie Murphy.
There are 11 games left in the abbreviated spring training for our Oakland Athletics and there are many questions left unanswered. That probably means that the players like Gio Gonzalez and Carlos Gonzalez will make their start with Sacramento no matter how well they perform over these next nine days/11 games (two days of split squad in there too).
It's hard to believe that real baseball that actually counts is so close. The A's will have the luxury of being able to carry three extra players with them to Japan so the toughest decisions (ahem, Dan Johnson) won't have to be made until they get back to the United States. I'm still guessing that DJ will wind up being dealt, even if it is for little to no return. The A's simply have too many options for that position.
Any way, it's been a fascinating spring training mostly because so many players have performed so well that they're making the A's front office have some tough decisions which is one of the reasons this has been so much fun for us. I will tell you this. If I wasn't sold on Beane making some of the moves he made this offseason, I am officially sold on them now. The A's have some quality players in their system who are knocking on the door already and yet, there are also many more down the road. I may be naive, but I'm really excited to see how this team comes together this year. Even if the team performs as low as the expectations, there is the foundation for something great. And I think it might be sooner than people think.
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we can only hope
that you are right about johnson. but i'll be greedy and hope we can get something decent for him ;)
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
the thing about dj is
he really isn't that bad. Last year he had a higher OBP than Shannon Stewart despite his .236 batting average.
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
I'd rather have a guy who gets on base
because that correlates to runs and wins more than a guy with a nice batting average.
by thejd44 on Mar 10, 2008 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Id rather have a guy who doesnt get sun screen in his eyes...
Then have issues an entire season because of it.
Your 2008 East Bay Athletic Rivercats of the greater Fremont Area!
Walk < hit.
Does that mean I want a bunch of hackers? Certainly not. But if you're a .230 hitter, I don't care how much you walk.
So it goes.
If you're a leadoff hitter, I guess.
Not if you're supposed to be driving in runs.
It's funny, I think that focus on statistics inspired by Moneyball has actually caused people to overcompensate, and thereby overvalue OBP. Sometimes the A's look like a team that's patient to a fault.
So it goes.
Not really.
An OBP of 380 is going to be valuable, no matter the batting position, unless the guy has absolutely no power, even if you are supposed to be driving in runs, considering that league average OBP in the AL in 2007 was 338.
There's a section in Lichtman / Tango / Dolphin's Book that covers the relative value of OBP vs SLG in the various batting slots.
It's funny, but even with Moneyball, and the fact that OBP is supposedly no longer undervalued, people are still undervaluing OBP.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
You need both.
People used to only look at BA, now all they look at is OBP. Neither approach of looking at one to the exclusion of the other is useful. This explains how a team can be second in the AL in walks, 6th in OBP...and 11th in runs scored.
So it goes.
it can also be explained
by shit loads of injuries to key players
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
Doesn't affect the numbers
And even what I offered is an oversimplification. As rfloh hinted, it's not just a lack of hitting the ball that made the A's offense bad, it was their inability to hit it hard.
BA gets portrayed as a stat that has no value, and it simply isn't true.
So it goes.
i know i'm not saying that
I'm just suggesting that i don't think last years offense can accurately portray the actual offense. 2006 they were average in runs scored, and in 2005, without frank thomas, they scored more runs than in 2006 in a better pitching year.
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
Nobody looks at just OBP
If we're talking those simple stats, I also look at SLG. I almost never look at AVG, except as a small part of a much larger puzzle.
I just don't understand why people look at AVG. AVG is A PART of OBP. OBP is a more complete story. AVG is also a part of SLG, but SLG is a more complete story. In each case, it's like choosing to read just one chapter in a book before writing a review when you have the entire book in hand.
A .230 average is just fine if the guy has an OBP of .380 and a SLG of .450.
by thejd44 on Mar 10, 2008 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions
the slg % impact is less...
when he walks all the time.
Its effectively saying that he might not hit much, but he hits its well when he does. ala the Custian style.
DJ does get too much grief, but when D's shift against him every AB, I cringe at those DP's.
No Harden and No Chavez make the A's go, something something...
OBP and SLG can't capture it all.
A hit is still (almost always) more useful than a walk. Consider the following two scenarios, each of which supposes a runner at 2nd with two outs, the next two hitters reaching 1st, and the third making an out:
Scenario A
Batter walks, runners at 1st and 2nd
Batter walks, bases loaded
Batter makes out.
0 runs
Scenario B
Batter singles, run scores, runner advances to 2nd on throw, or a defensive error
Batter singles, run scores,
Batter makes out.
2 runs.
In both scenarios, the OBP is the same, but the results are very different. Slugging is only slightly higher.
When you walk instead of hit, two things happen. One is that baserunners are limited in their opportunity to advance bases in comparison to a hit. The other is that you lose the opportuntiy to let opponent error help out your offense as well (unless Frankie Rodriguez is pitching, anyway).
OBP to the exclusion of AVG explains why Ichiro can look like a pedestrian player on paper, when it's evident he clearly isn't one. His OBP is about the same as DJ's, and his slugging slightly less...but the ability to get a hit when one is needed, as evidenced in the AVG, makes him a much more useful player.
So it goes.
well if you're comparing ichiro and dj yes
but we're talking about the average player, not the player who set the all time hits record. Everyone talks about how awful DJ is, when in fact he really isn't that bad. I would much rather have DJ than Coco Crisp.
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
Why not just look at EqA?
Seeing as how it actually weights all of the events properly.
DJ's EqA was .270 last year. Ichiro's was .293. There's no question whatsoever that Ichiro was the more valuable player, especially considering that he plays a good CF instead of an average 1B.
(Coco Crisp's EqA was .247, indicating that he's far worse than Ichiro and only better than DJ if you need a center fielder and don't need a 1B.)
OPS is just a quick-and-dirty, easy to calculate shorthand for EqA (or the related "counting stats" like BaseRuns).
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Firstly, Ichiro's OBP is not
pedestrian, relative to DJ's, or on it's own. NOT, if you actually bother to take into account CONTEXT.
CONTEXT matters. You are comparing the OBP of a CF, a CF who by many accounts is good defensively, with a 1b / DH. That is a HUGE DIFFERENCE.
Secondly, OBP, does not capture baserunning. And no one is pretending that it does.
Of course a hit is more valuable than a walk. That is NOT the issue. The issue is your contention about 370 OBP and driving in runs.
Also, of course OPS cannot capture it all. It does not take into account baserunning. It is not park adjusted. And, it UNDERWEIGHTS OBP. OPS UNDERWEIGHTS OBP. People use OPS because it is easy to calculate, easy to understand. easy to explain, and is a huge improvement on BA / HR / RBIs.
If you want a comprehensive stat, you can use EQA, or the various other stats based on EQA, like BRAA.
Or, if you do not like BPro's stats, any linear weights type stat like Batting Runs, BaseRuns etc. Batting Runs is available on BBRef. The version on BBRef does not include SBs and CS. So, plug in the values into any linear type formula and then add the amount to the total on BBRef. Fairly easy.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Obviously both are needed
Of course, only focusing on just one stat to the exclusion of all others is unwise, whether OBP, SLG, BA. etc. But that does not mean that a driving in runs player can get away with a very low OBP, say 300, and be a good offensive player, not unless he is doing pretty much everything else very well
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
I actually like Dan Johnson...
but, where is there a place for him on this team? No wonder Linden is so negative about his chances. I have him penciled in as our 4th outfielder, but I seriously doubt that will happen, unfortunately.
Here's what I think:
Starting Rotation
1. Rich Harden
2. Joe Blanton
3. Chad Gaudin
4. Justin Duchscherer
4. Dana Eveland
Bullpen
5. Huston Street
6. Alan Embree
7. Lenny DiNardo
8. Andrew Brown
9. Fernando Hernandez
10. Dallas Braden
11. Keith Foulke
12. (a) Kiko Calero (DL)
12. (b) Greg Smith/Kirk Saarloos
Starting Position Players
Catchers
13. Kurt Suzuki
14. Rob Bowen
Infield
15. 1B Daric Barton
16. 2B Mark Ellis
17. 3B Eric Chavez
18. SS Bobby Crosby
Outfield
19. CF Travis Buck
20. RF Emil Brown
21. LF Jack Cust
Bench
22. Donnie Murphy
23. Jack Hannahan
24. Todd Linden
DH
25. Mike Sweeney
EXTRA ROSTER IN JAPAN
26. Chris Gissel
27. Jerry Blevins
28. Brooks Conrad
Now, obviously, they could start the season by keeping one of the young guys on the roster if Chavez isn't ready to go. But, let's face it, Chavez is on the team. So is Barton. So is Cust. So, in my opinion, is Sweeney. That means DJ is gone, one way or the other.
Go A's!
They won't need a 5th starter for a while...
so, that'll probably keep Johnson and/or Conrad on the roster into the opening couple of weeks of the season. Johnson so they can showcase him, Conrad to see if he can play.
Go A's!
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 10, 2008 12:36 AM PDT up reply actions
That makes two then,
you and his mother. Besides a hot month every season the man is awful. Can't wait to get rid.
As for your roster, we can't play Buck in CF. Otherwise it looks decent enough.
where you going to play Buck?
If not in CF, then where? Brown and Cust are going to be in the line-up, trust me. Billy didn't trade for Brown in order to let him sit.
Go A's!
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 10, 2008 1:43 AM PDT up reply actions
He signed Brown.
He didn't trade for him. 1 year, $1.45M, with incentives that can drive it up to about $3M.
So it goes.
The outfield won't work this way
We need two who can play center field and Cust and Brown and I believe Linden can't.
I think that Denorfia or R. Sweeney makes the team to balance that out. I can see an outfield of Buck, Denorfia, Cust and Brown.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
I don't think Denorfia has shaken the rust off yet...
and R. Sweeney certainly hasn't torn it up at the plate this spring. Linden can play center. He may win the job by default if he keeps hitting the way he has been. But, if he's right in thinking he's not going to make the team, I think Buck is their reasonable option in CF, unless you want somebody manning the position early in the season who is going to hit worse than Kotsay last year.
Go A's!
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 10, 2008 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Casilla might beat out Foulke...
and, it looks like Casilla will make it through Japan, at least, since Gissel was sent down today.
Go A's!
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 10, 2008 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Chavez may start the season on the DL
hopefully not for long...
Gaudin will as well, though if ready he'll be activated by mid-April.
Calero will also probably start the season on the DL.
Why on earth bring 14 pitchers for two games?
I don't even know why they'd bring more than 12. Bring 16 position players in case Chavez isn't ready.
by thejd44 on Mar 10, 2008 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Why not?
What's the point of having 16 position players?
More pitchers = more options out of the bullpen for those two games.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Bye Bye Danny Boy
I am so excited that DJ is going bye bye I think I just peed a little!
That is a pretty good looking roster, but can't say I don't secretly wish Gio and CarGon were on there. Soon, I know, but I really like them both! In fact, were it not for his switch hitting capabilities, I would rather take CarGon over Linden.
"Doesn't play well with the other children." Ms. Darias, principal, Broad Ave School
well, if I were writing the opening day line-up...
both CarCon and Gio might be on it. So might Henry Rodriguez. But, they've all got options, so Billy won't put them on the roster. Maybe, hopefully... if we're still in the chase at the trade deadline, we'll see all of those guys. One can hope.
Go A's!
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 10, 2008 1:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Another countdown is starting...
Wifethereof and I will be headed to Phoenix on Thursday night to see the A's play 4 games from Friday to Monday. Our first game? At the White Sox to see Swish. It'll be our last big vacation as a family before this major piece of news comes to pass... and I start to become a Twins fan. :-)
Anybody who wants to meet up with us this week can catch our contact info at the below link. Hope to see you there!
More than just ANtics: http://www.louisgray.com/live/
Thanks Jennifer!
Appreciate your note. We're around 100 days out from deployment... and there's still much more to do!
More than just ANtics: http://www.louisgray.com/live/
Good job on Twins!
I am going to be at the A's Giants SS game on Sat! You going to be there?
Your 2008 East Bay Athletic Rivercats of the greater Fremont Area!
Thanks!
Yes, my wife and I will be at the games on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday, including the Giants SS game on Saturday. And thanks for the congratulations on the twins. They just might be mildly disruptive to my current lifestyle. :-)
More than just ANtics: http://www.louisgray.com/live/
As long as you don't name
your children AJ and Morneau, that's cool.
Seriously though, congrats and have a blast!
by Tyler Bleszinski on Mar 10, 2008 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions
Thanks Mrs. Blez
With Maya being so cute, we knew we had to finally make a move to the free agent market and pick up a couple prospects ourselves.
More than just ANtics: http://www.louisgray.com/live/
congratulations
did you get the idea from beane?
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
I am a true Beane follower
As he goes, so do I. You nailed it.
More than just ANtics: http://www.louisgray.com/live/
no, dude, *you* n-
No, I shouldn't go there.
I wasn't thinking about anything. I'll have to try to do that more often. @('.')@
Congratulations to you, sir!
Your due date is just about the same as ours, although we're limited ourselves to one.
So it goes.
One is a good start
But as Ernie Banks said, "Let's play two!"
More than just ANtics: http://www.louisgray.com/live/
jeeper,
Congrats to you and your wife as well! Will your child be a boy or a girl? It's an AN baby explosion!
It ain't over yet...
we may be having another baby naming contest soon. Hmmmm... Dagny Barton Gordon kinda has a ring to it, dontcha think?
Go A's!
by FoolshGame22 on Mar 11, 2008 2:26 AM PDT up reply actions
That's so wonderful!
And a boy and a girl is the best! I hope that you are giving your wife lots of TLC! Congrats to the both of you .
does Denorfia have options left?
I ask because several commentators on the radio have mentioned that Denorfia's year away from playing ball is very evident in his rustiness at the plate, especially his bat speed. Perhaps some time in Sacramento might do him good.
For whatever reason, DJ has yet to prove that he can hit major league pitching on a regular basis -- which also negatively affects his trade value.
My guess is both Gonzalez' start the season at AAA, but that Gio in particular doesn't stay there very long.
Yes, he does
He has at least one option left, maybe two. Called up in 2005, definitely burned an option in 2006, did not last year (because he spent the whole year on the DL), so he has either one or two remaining.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
His contract was purchased in 9/2005
So I'd imagine he wouldn't have an option used for the 2005 season since he wasn't even on the 40-man until September. So it looks like he does have 2 left.
Sending him down to get his swing back would be a really good idea. Maybe you keep him for Japan, but he may as well start the regular season in AAA. That opens up an outfield spot so Ryan Sweeney and Todd Linden can both make the team.
by thejd44 on Mar 10, 2008 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions
There are 12 games left in Arizona
and 17 exhibition games remaining overall.
Plus the two pseudo-exhibition games against the Sox, which don't require the team to finalize roster cuts. So really there are 19 games left to determine "who makes the team".
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
According to the schedule on MLB.com
The A's only have 11 games left in Arizona unless there is an unscheduled game that I don't know about.
Did they add a game on the 13th or something?
by Tyler Bleszinski on Mar 10, 2008 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Oh, you're right, I forgot there was a day off Thursday
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I count 11 games in Arizona, 2 against Japanese teams, and 3 against the Giants after the Japan trip. Then there's the 2 real games against Boston with the expanded roster, so they do have 18 games before they have to make those final cuts. Todd Linden has some time to stop crying like an infant and play his way onto the roster.
by thejd44 on Mar 10, 2008 8:58 AM PDT reply actions
Seriously.... Sorry this isnt the TENURE Giants
I hate that its like "cry cry cry cry" then "well all I can do is play, the rest is out of my control". Well whimpering like a little baby is IN your control. I guarantee he wouldnt be so vocal if he werent hitting over .600 in Spring Training. Heck, if he could hit over .300 during regular season he wouldnt have a problem at all getting on any roster.
Your 2008 East Bay Athletic Rivercats of the greater Fremont Area!
What bothers me is that he's crying BEFORE he got cut! It'd be one thing to say this stuff if he hit .714, did everything, and still got sent to Sacramento. He might have a grip then. But right now he's still with the team and complaining about maybe not making it. There's just a much better way to go about it. Why not say "even playing well, there's a lot of talent here and making the team will be difficult"? He just came across as a bit of a jerk, even if the message behind what he's saying is fairly accurate.
by thejd44 on Mar 10, 2008 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions
anyon know if today's game
against Angels (Braden starting) will be on mlb.com audio? I didn't see it on mlb.com's schedule...but it's still early
Gio Go
BB has been pretty good at picking up talent in trades* …this Gio Gonzalez seemed to look good his last time out and the wrap suggested he could make the roster.
Adding another lefty would be huge. Anytime you can bring a LHP out of the pen to match up on a LHH or slow the running game is a great weapon. Also, it seems this guy is a potential future starter....again, lefties force the opposing manager's hand in making a line-up.
Any deeper insight on this guy?
* give Denorfia and the others time to pan out...though it might not be this spring as many dreamed for given the hole in CF
Gio's a starter
and a top prospect as starters go. He's got a curve which is almost as good as Zito's with a better fastball-- he could be that kind of pitcher.
No worries as far as the bullpen goes, though; whoever of Meyer, Braden and Eveland don't end up in the rotation will be available as a bullpen lefty, and Jerry Blevins, Alan Embree and Troy Cate (minor league free agent, but pitched rather well for St. Louis last year) are available as true relief specialists. The A's have (and will have for the forseeable future) one of the deepest left-handed relief corps in all of baseball.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
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