FanPost

DLD: Erratum

In my description of linear weights two Staturdays ago, I made an error.  Tom Tango of The Book Blog pointed out that I had the wrong run values for stolen bases and caught stealing.  Here is the corrected version:

Event    Run Value
Single   +0.47
Double   +0.78
Triple   +1.09
Dinger   +1.40
Walk/HBP +0.33
Steal    +0.30+0.175
Caught   -0.60-0.467
Outs     -0.09

Now, some might say that steal attempts are leveraged - that is, assigning a run value to steals is misleading, because you attempt steals when you have a chance to impact your probability of winning, not just your probability of scoring.  In that case, you can do a few mathematical shenanigans and come to the conclusion that the 0.175 leveraged runs you get from a typical steal is more like .20 "random" runs.  You can do the same thing with the caught stealing value and substitute - 0.49 for the -0.467.

Thanks to Tom for pointing out the error.

Also: LINK DUMP!

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