In my description of linear weights two Staturdays ago, I made an error. Tom Tango of The Book Blog pointed out that I had the wrong run values for stolen bases and caught stealing. Here is the corrected version:
Event Run Value
Now, some might say that steal attempts are leveraged - that is, assigning a run value to steals is misleading, because you attempt steals when you have a chance to impact your probability of winning, not just your probability of scoring. In that case, you can do a few mathematical shenanigans and come to the conclusion that the 0.175 leveraged runs you get from a typical steal is more like .20 "random" runs. You can do the same thing with the caught stealing value and substitute - 0.49 for the -0.467.
Thanks to Tom for pointing out the error.
Also: LINK DUMP!
Does this admission of error negatively impact your impression of salb918?
No, he's still awesome. (22 votes)
No, it's not possible to have an even more negative view of salb918 than I had previously. (8 votes)
Yes, my faith in our stat-addled alien overlords has been irrevocably shaken (23 votes)
Who's salb918? (18 votes)
He's the short guy. (17 votes)
Oh, right. Thanks. (21 votes)
109 total votes