Jack Cust / Landon Powell
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 21, 2008 10:07 AM PST
73 comments
This is my first attempt at a fanpost, so hopefull I won't completely screw it up. I've been thinking about these two guys alot lately (not in that way). It seems like the A's could take a couple different routes concerning the future of the team in regards to first base, catcher and the DH positions. Please take a look at my thoughts below. Any feedback/tweaking is welcome.
I feel that it's pretty evident that M. Sweeney is not going to be in the future plans for the A's. I can't help but feel that his signing is to serve as a buffer to allow the younger guys to gain more experience, with the potential bonus being a chance to flip him at the trade deadline for more prospects. Therefore, i'm not going to include him at length in this post.
It appears that Jack Cust's value is probably as high right now as it will ever be. So, why not trade him to a contending team for some prospects? We have two guys in the minor leagues at this moment that have a great shot at becoming capable designated hitters. These two guys are Landon Powell and Chris Carter. I'm not going to claim to know much about Carter, but with Barton manning first base for the foreseeable future, he seems to profile better as a dh. Moving on to Landon Powell. This guy is a great hitter, but has already been through two surgeries on his knee. Most people would argue that he profiles to be a better defensive catcher than Kurt Suzuki. This point may be true, but i'm still very concerned about his health issues. From the outside looking in, it seems that he could have a much longer and more productive career as a dh.
So basically what I'm proposing is:
1. Trade Cust for prospects.
2. Leave Suzuki behind the plate.
3. Leave Barton at fist.
4. Allow either Carter or Powell to dh.
Realistically, if the rest of the team is learning how to play in the majors, why not allow the same thing to happen at the dh position?
Thoughts?
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i think the A's would do better
by allowing Powell a full, healthy season at AAA first. he's played all of 4 games there in his career.
Vern (too many Chris Carters) doesn't have any experience above A ball. I think he should take on A+ or AA this season, not the bigs.
on a side note– is Vern an option for 3B? that's how the Baseball Cube lists him. I see that his fielding percentage was a putrid .845 in rookie ball, the last place he played 3B, but he's still just 21 years old. I would think it would be on the A's minds if his arm was decent.
by rebus on Feb 21, 2008 10:43 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I don't want to discourage you ...
keep'em coming ...
but the premise of this diary is wrong:
"if the rest of the team is learning how to play in the majors, why not allow the same thing to happen at the dh position?"
C - Suzuki - nearly a full year of MLB experience
1b - Barton - rookie who has succeeded in his first MLB taste and who clearly has nothing to prove in the minors. He was promoted fairly slowly.
2b - Ellis - 5 year veteran
SS - Crosby - 4 year veteran
3b - Chavez - 9 year veteran
LF - Brown - 4+ year veteran
CF - Denorfia - 2 partial years of experience
RF - Buck - full year of MLB experience
DH - Cust - One year of MLB experience, clearly more than ready
SP - Harden - 4+ year veteran
SP - Blanton - 3 year veteran
SP - Duke - 4+ year veteran
SP - Gaudin - 3 year veteran
SP - Dinardo - 2 years of MLB experience
SP - Eveland - not a rookie, nothing left to prove at AAA
We're only going to likely have one rookie starter, everyone else is more or less established as a MLer. It's simply not true that our prospects are learning at the ML level.
Powell has only gotten a brief taste of AAA, Carter hasn't played above A-ball. It'd be silly to rush them.
I also don't think Cust's value is that high. People have a lot of doubts about him. If he performs well, it'll skyrocket, but for now, he has more value to us than anyone else ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Feb 21, 2008 11:04 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
true
I should have been more clear. I was primarily referring to guys that we expect to see in the majors either sometime this year or next. People like Carlos Gonzalez, Gio, possibly FDLS. Not necessarily people like Mark Ellis and so on. My only real concern regarding Cust is the fact that he's not going to have much surrounding him in the lineup this year. That is unless you count Crosby and Chavez. And i think we all know that you can't count on either one of them at this point. Concerning Harden, technically no he is not a rookie, but he has about as much actual pitching experience as one at the major league level.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 21, 2008 12:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"My only real concern regarding Cust is the fact that he's not going to have much surrounding him in the lineup this year. "
A. This has no discernible impact on hitter performance.
B. Even if it did, the OBP of the guys who are likely to be hitting in front of him (Barton, Buck, Denorfia) will be similar to last year's lineup.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Feb 21, 2008 12:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
well....
I hope this doesn't sound bad, so please don't take it the wrong way.
In reference to point A that you make above, i don't see how this could be possible. I've seen this argument in the past, but i'm not sure if there is actually a way to break it down stat-wise.
If i put myself in a pitcher's situation like the following, it seems pretty easy to conceive that the batter is going to see less 'hittable' pitches.
*Disclaimer: Keep in mind that this is purely hypothetical to demonstrate a point.
Example 1:
At Bat: Jack Cust
On Deck: 2002 Eric Chavez
Example 2:
At Bat: Jack Cust
On Deck: 2007 Eric Chavez
It seems that it would not be much of a stretch to imagine Cust getting better pitches in example 1 than in example 2. Why pitch to him when you know the next guy will swing at anything high and outside? Although this may not impact his performance, it would impact his opportunity to perform. Hopefully this makes some sort of sense, i'm trying to type this out while pretending to do some work.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 21, 2008 12:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's logically plausible
but empirically incorrect. There is a way to study this-- basically it involves taking comparisons of the same hitters hitting in front of better and worse lineup mates, and doing this a whole bunch of times across the whole of baseball.
There's no impact except on the amount of times a guy gets intentionally walked, and even there the impact is much much smaller than you would expect. Pitchers either don't "pitch around" guys often enough to matter, or they're bad at doing so to the point that it cancels out what they're trying to do. (I'd guess it's the latter, as I've seen plenty of meatballs thrown to guys in situations where every logical thought would be to throw something out of the strike zone.)
Also (this is irrelevant, but more info never killed anyone) high and away is exactly where you DON'T want to pitch Chavez. The hole in his swing is low and inside.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Feb 21, 2008 1:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
which makes
absolutely no sense. what left-handed hitter has a hole in his swing there? grrrrrr.
also...just as a player, i would tend to agree with orlando, but i see where you're going with the empirical standpoint.
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
by flipgatey3 on Feb 21, 2008 2:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, it's less that he has a specific hole
low and inside, and more that if you pitch him either low or inside, you have a much better chance of getting him out than if you don't.
If you imagine a 3x3 grid breakdown of the zone, Chavez's hot zones look like this:
HHC
HHC
CCC
So if you aim low and inside, even if you miss horizontally or vertically, you're still in the "cold" areas.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Feb 21, 2008 2:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i think you mean
CHH
CHH
CCC
i but i get the drift.
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
by flipgatey3 on Feb 21, 2008 5:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
In MLB 06
I have the camera behind the plate, facing the pitcher.
That's always how I conceptualize the strike zone.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Feb 21, 2008 5:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Only when batting!
You should reverse it and go behind the pitcher when you're pitching. Much more fun that way.
by mikev on Feb 22, 2008 8:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Rich Harden has 464-2/3 IP in the majors -- 2 full seasons worth of innings.
Carlos and Gio won't be learning at the ML level when they get called up later this year or next. They'll be proven in AAA and ready to get their shot. That's completely different from Powell and especially Carter.
I'll just second PT's comments re the lineup.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Feb 21, 2008 12:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
really?
I didn't realize that Rich Harden had that many innings pitched. wow. it seems almost impossible with him always on the disabled list. I guess i should have researched it. I agree with you regarding chris carter. i tried to look him up to gather more information, but chris carter is apparently a pretty common name. By the way, I appreciate your's and PT's comments. I'm always open to discussion with fellow fans that are capable of maintaining a meaningful dialogue.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 21, 2008 12:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
you should look it up as
Vernon Christopher Carter, that's his full name.
by rebus on Feb 21, 2008 12:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Vernon?
That's seriously his first name? Poor guy. You know he got picked on in school.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 21, 2008 1:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Harden pitched nearly 400 of those innings
over 2-1/2 years from from 2003-2005 ... he's only thrown 72 over the last two years. It's an easy mistake to make.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Feb 21, 2008 12:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
FdLS
has barely played pro ball: 122 pro innings, only 24 in A+ or above.
It's unrealistic to expect him to make the majors this year or even next year.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Feb 21, 2008 1:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
To be fair
the Cube doesn't usually have non-US statistics.
He probably has a year or two in the DR under his belt.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Feb 21, 2008 1:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Four things
1. Landon Powell is apparently on the mend as a catcher. I doubt he'll be winning any footraces in the near future, but he appears likely to return to the position. At worst, he's a platoon option with Suzuki (Rob Bowen with better defense and power). At best, Suzuki becomes the platoon guy or a trade chip. He's somewhat old for a prospect, but catcher is the slowest-developing position (which is why Suzuki's meteoric rise is so surprising-- clearly the team feels he's got all of the intangibles).
2. Chris Carter is a prospect who's never hit above Low-A ball. Am I excited about him? Sure. The guy's clearly got enormous power, and not just batting-practice power, either. That doesn't make him a sure-fire success, though. It's far too early to be counting him into any big-league plans.
(Also in this category is Sean Doolittle, who is clearly the #1 option at first base, defensively speaking, now that Swisher is gone. His upside is Casey Kotchman [hopefully without the weird ailments], which is pretty good. Still, he, Barton and Carter all being successful is a problem the A's would like to have.)
3. Cust has no trade value. Zilch. Until we hear otherwise, it's safe to assume that the rest of the baseball world views him as a fluke. He's a joke to them, one of those "only Oakland would play THAT guy" players. Other GMs roll their eyes at him-- and the smart ones who don't and are in the AL, like Shapiro and Epstein, already have established DHs.
It's just possible that one more year of great production could generate some trade interest from teams on the fringes-- specifically, Toronto and Tampa. Big Frank's contract may expire if he doesn't hit a plate appearance quota, but barring a major injury it's hard to see that happening. Tampa seems to already have plenty of DH candidates.
4. Cust's bat will play in the outfield. Is it as optimal as having him DH? Clearly not-- he's basically a replacement level fielder. But it won't kill the team. The A's outfield prospects aren't nearly to the point where Cust is blocking them off.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Feb 21, 2008 11:44 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Comment on Powell
Powell's age does work against him but everyone needs to remember that he's missed roughly one and a half seasons because of knee injuries. He's moved quickly when he's played, the issue is can you keep him on the field?
I care.
by grover on Feb 21, 2008 11:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He also "missed" a season
by returning to college for his senior year.
Although I'm generally of the opinion that this is not the worst thing in the world for catchers, unless the guy is a wunderkind.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Feb 21, 2008 12:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Preference
In all honestly, i think it boils down to me not being as high on Cust as alot of other people on this board seem to be. I could definitely be wrong, i just have a feeling he's going to come back down to earth sooner rather than later. Again, i could be completely wrong. It wouldn't be the first time. I still feel that Powell could produce at this level given a couple months to become more familiar with the league. However, i don't want to lose Suzuki or have him being used in a diminished capacity. That's the only reason i'm looking so closely at the dh position.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 21, 2008 12:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If you're higher on Suzuki than Cust as a hitter,
you need (shameless plug here) to read my piece on batted ball profiles.
Basically, Suzuki was lucky to hit as well as he did last year and will have to improve his ability to post the same numbers. Meanwhile, Jack Cust hits the ball harder than A-Rod.
Powell/Cust is a far, far better hitting tandem than Suzuki/Powell.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Feb 21, 2008 12:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not as a hitter
As a player in general. i think he has more to offer than Cust. Yes, Cust is a better hitter. But that's about all he has over Suzuki. Suzuki can play defense and has the potential to guide the young pitchers as they break into the majors. Ok, i'm now done defending myself :) Well played gentleman. I must actually do some work now.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 21, 2008 1:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That's as may be
The fact remains: you have two positions to fill, DH and C.
Cust is a crummy defender, but he's the best candidate for DH. Once that spot is full, you take the best catcher (Powell) and end up with the best combination.
The best player in the abstract is not necessarily the best player for a given team. A platoon hitter who OPSes 900 against lefties may be better than a guy who OPSes 750 against everybody-- if what you need is a platoon hitter.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Feb 21, 2008 1:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
To expect Cust to repeat 2007
is unrealistic, I agree.
I'm curious what you mean by "come back down to earth", though.
Do you believe he can put up an 830-860 OPS or thereabouts? In other words, somewhere around what Swisher and Buck did in 2007?
Also, Carlos Pena is an interesting comp for Cust. Like Cust, he had a breakout season last year. Like Cust, there have been no rumours about teams trading for him, before or after he signed his extension.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Feb 21, 2008 1:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Pena
I liked Carlos Pena when he played for the A's. But you are right about his name never coming up in trade rumors.
what i meant regarding the 'coming back down to earth line' was that he outperformed everyone's expectations last year. Prior to that, he was pretty much a career minor leaguer. Whether that was because he wasn't given a decent opportunity or because he wasn't really that good remains to be seen. I feel that 2007 was a plateau for him. I hope wrong about this, but his past stints in the majors doesn't exactly fill me with confidence. I hope i am wrong though. I would love for him to have that kind of success for a prolonged period of time.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 21, 2008 1:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
how?
he was god awful. i made a facebook group mid-season last year called "carlos pena still sucks" in his honor, because i'm still pissed that he couldn't pan out for us.
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
by flipgatey3 on Feb 21, 2008 2:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So, in your opinion
he is a career minor leaguer?
That I disagree with. His bat was pretty damn good in the minors. As good as any good hitting prospect's.
Team did not want to give him a chance because of his baserunning: the famous baserunnning gaffe when he was wtih the Orioles did not help, and his D.
I'm not saying that he is going to be special, but in my opinion, a career similar to Geronimo Berroa's is a good possibility, with Matt Stairs being a fairly possible upside.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Feb 21, 2008 10:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Minor Leaguer
That remains to be seen. I'm just saying that he was looking like a career minor leaguer prior to last season. I'm anxious to see how he performs this season now that he has a pretty much full major league season under his belt. Just as the pitchers have now had plenty of time to adjust to him as well. I think it will be interesting to see if he is capable of making the necessary adjustments to perform at this level.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 22, 2008 6:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the problem here
is that your definition is basically tautological: he was in the minor leagues for his career, therefore he was a career minor leaguer.
His stats sure as hell didn't look like those of a career minor leaguer. Have you looked at his AAA numbers? They're ridiculous. He was posting OPSes of like 1.100. If there was a AAA Hall of Fame, he would absolutely have been on pace to get into it.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Feb 22, 2008 9:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just curious
as to why his past teams seemed to have given up on him. i know his defense and baserunning are both way beyond sucky, but it still seems like someone would have been willing to give him a fair shot in the majors based on his offensive production alone. Then again, i don't know what goes through most of the gm's heads. Just seems a little odd. I don't want to come off as i'm totally bagging on Jack Cust. All in all, i do like him. I just question whether or not holding on to him at this point is really going to benefit this team a couple of years from now.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 22, 2008 10:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't see how it could hurt ...
can you?
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Feb 22, 2008 10:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No
Of course it wouldn't hurt to have him on the team. On the other hand, it wouldn't HURT to have Nick Swisher or Dan Haren on the team either. They were both traded to build for the future and i completely agree with the decision to trade them. Since the team is indeed building for the future, why would they not consider trading Cust? I realize that there are quite a few people on here that assume he has no trade value and/or suitors, but stranger things have happened. I just think it's an avenue that should be considered.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 22, 2008 10:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt Billy Beane is sticking his thumbs in his ears
and humming when teams call about Jack Cust, if that's what you're saying... but if no one's calling about him, there's no reason to start trying to shop him. It's pointless. He'll never get equal value for him right now.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Feb 22, 2008 11:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
that's pretty much what i'm getting at
I'm not saying to try to force a trade, just to 'test the waters' and see what kind of offers you get. You never know when that possiblity of a team stepping up with an amazing offer will come to fruition. Kind of like what happened with Swisher. Although this scenario is unlikely, it's not impossible.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 22, 2008 11:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
For some reason,
despite all the talk of OBP and OPS no longer being undervalued, guys like Cust, or Carlos Pena, who K quite a bit, who sometimes will look bad when they K, who will watch strike 3 go past down the middle, still appear to be undervalued.
All the while mediocre proven vets like Sean Casey, Kevin Millar, Mientkiewicz, get millions to provide production that guys like Cust can replace.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Feb 22, 2008 11:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
The thing that really bothers me the most about cust is his strikeout rate. I understand that most power hitters are going to strike out alot, but his strikeout total is ridiculous. For example, take Adam Dunn. Dude is know for being a power hitter and a strikeout machine. He had one more strikeout than Cust did last year in 127 more at-bats. So if you look at Cust's 164 SO's in 395 at-bats, that's roughly .415 K's per AB. Dunn had 165 SO's in 522 AB's. Assuming that Cust gets up to that number of AB's this year, his K total is going to be insane unless he learns to make better contact. That would put him on a pace for almost 217 K's. To me, there is no excuse for that unless you are hitting atleast 50 home-runs a year. Come to think of it, i probably just helped confirm PT's point about him not having much trade value at this point. Carry on.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 22, 2008 12:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Upside of low contact is
his league-leading (by a lot) 20% BB rate. Those aren't going away either. If he has 200 Ks, and 130 BBs, that would be dandy.
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on Feb 22, 2008 12:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
walks
I agree that the walks are nice, but isn't his primary reason for being here to drive in runs? You can't do that if your walking. It's kind of a double-edged sword. You don't really want him swinging at bad pitches, but you don't necessarily want him watching strikes go right down the middle of the plate either. I'm sure i'll get bombarded after my next comment, but that's fine. I can't help but feel that his high walk rate is a by-product of his high strike out rate. To clarify, most pitchers will get wild and miss the plate on random occasions. So, i question how many of his walks are a result of him recognizing that the pitch is going to be a ball, or whether they are a result of him not recognizing whether the pitch is a ball or strike and not swinging and the pitcher missing the strike zone for a ball. It's one of those things that we will probably never know. Hell, I'm not even sure if this response makes sense to anyone but me.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 22, 2008 12:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He's not "just guessing"
Cust has one of the best eyes for the strike zone of anyone in baseball. If he looks miffed after getting called out, you can be pretty certain that the ump made a bad call. And now that we have Gameday, we can actually confirm this.
I'm not kidding when I say that the A's lost two games last season because of Cust being called out on a pitch that was not in the strike zone.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Feb 22, 2008 12:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i'll have to take your word for that
I'm sure you've seen him play considerably more than i have. My only response to that is, regardless of how good his eye is, umpire's make bad calls. It's just human nature. If the game is on the line, he needs to protect the plate. You can't always rely on the umpire making the correct call. If he knows it's going to be a borderline pitch, he should adjust his approach to be more defensive.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 22, 2008 12:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The problem is that defensive hitting
usually results in bad contact and overaggressive swinging. (Unless you're an inhuman machine like Placido Polanco.)
There's always a tradeoff.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Feb 22, 2008 12:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They both come from:
1. Rarely swinging
2. Rarely making contact when he does swing, because he's trying for a home run every swing.
Every time on base is a chance to score and also not an out. And he drives in plenty of runs.
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on Feb 22, 2008 12:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No ... his primary reason for being here is not to drive in runs ...
it's to help the team score runs, by any means necessary -- whether that is driving in the run, moving a runner closer to scoring, via hit or walk or getting on base so that someone else can drive him in.
The primary reason for "being here" is exactly the same for every offensive player.
His high k-rate, low BA will lead to fewer RBIs than you'd expect, given his power -- but he makes up for that by getting on base more than most -- helping the team to score runs by any means necessary.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Feb 22, 2008 12:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
by any means necessary
Jack X?
Someone is wrong on the Internet. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Feb 22, 2008 12:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
alright
so do you not put high OBP guys in front of him in the lineup with the intention of him driving them in? Isn't that typically why you have a power hitter in the cleanup spot? I agree with what you are saying to an extent, as that should be any player's goal. but to say that someone like cust, the dh, who usually will bat cleanup is not looked to for the purpose of driving in runs just seems a little hard to fathom. If the whole idea is to get on base by any means necessary, then why not sign Barry Bonds. Dude is on base constantly when he plays. Yes he is clubhouse cancer and all around bad person, but he would put the team in a position to score alot of runs.
*Second Disclaimer: I do not condone the signing of Barry Bonds. I do not want Barry Bonds on this team. In fact, I hate Barry Bonds.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 22, 2008 1:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well there are plenty of reasons not to ...
PR, pending felony charges, lack of a position to play him in, team would likely not contend with him, anyway, etc ...
but from a pure baseball standpoint, yes, the offense would be better if he were a member of it.
I know that what I'm saying flies in the face of a century of baseball conventional wisdom. I'm okay with this, though, because the conventional wisdom is wrong. A little more contact would make him a better player, it's true, but that doesn't mean he's not a good player as it is.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Feb 22, 2008 1:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
dude
Hey i was just messin' with you. I agree with alot of what you guys have been saying. Not all of it though. I created this post because it was an idea i was tossing around. Realistically, it really doesn't matter how much sense it does or doesn't make. I'm not the one making the deals. Being a newcomer here, it was kind of fun going back and forth with you, PT and a few others. I'll have to get involved with these discussions more in the future. I'm just glad to actually have other A's fans to talk baseball with. Regardless if we share the same point of view or not.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 22, 2008 7:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, some pitchers
will get wild and miss the plate on random occasions. But, this applies to every hitter in MLB, not just Cust. Yet, Cust walks a lot, while some others, like Howie Kendrick, pretty much not at all.
And yes, the walks are linked to his Ks, AND his power. Guys like Cust, Dunn, Thome, Howard, deliberately trade contact, for walks and slugging.
It would be nice if Cust could cut down on his Ks, occasionally put the ball in play more, while retaining the walks and power. At which point he is unlikely to be playing for the A's; instead, he would be earning millions in NYC, Boston.
Or maybe he cuts down on his Ks, but the power and walks go down, and to paraphrase David Ortiz, he starts "hitting like a leetle beetch".
Cust is not a Bonds. He is not a Manny Ramirez. Not Thome. He does not need to be. A good useful player for cheap is very useful.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Feb 22, 2008 11:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The other upside is that
when he does make contact, he rips the stitches off the ball. He's at or near the top of the league in every indicator of contact quality. Half his batted balls are either line drives or a deep fly balls.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Feb 22, 2008 12:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
true
Yes that's true. I just think his pitch recognition needs to improve.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 22, 2008 12:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
Cust's a vet at this point. He knows what he can and can't do at the plate.
Example: 3-2 count. Pitcher throws a pitch at the lower outside corner. Let's say you have a .150 batting average on strikes in that zone. You evaluate the pitch as a fifty-fifty pitch-- might be a strike, might be a ball, right on the borderline.
In most cases, you're better off taking the pitch even though you might be called out. He's not striking out looking because he has a bad eye, he's striking out because he has a GOOD eye and knows he's sunk if the pitch is in the zone. So why not roll the dice and hope it gets called a ball?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Feb 22, 2008 12:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Powell is good defensively
Which should keep him at catcher until his knees force him to move. Even if it's to possibly lower the risk of injury, you don't want to make a perfectly good defensive player a DH this early in his career.
(Formerly known as "Nebraska")
The Pastime -- A Minor Consideration -- Catfish Stew
by Ryan Armbrust on Feb 21, 2008 12:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Other than 60 games in AA as a 25 year old,
Powell hasn't done anything to suggest he'd be an acceptable option at DH. The offensive gap between catchers and DHs is enormous; in the AL last year, catchers had an 88 OPS+, while DHs were at 111.
Powell's bat and glove could make him a valuable catcher if he can stay healthy. He'd lose virtually all of his value by moving to DH.
by Danny on Feb 21, 2008 12:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
How about moving Powell to 3B?
Assuming that he could keep his weight under control, that is.
by mikev on Feb 21, 2008 1:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
One thing I learned from this fanpost
If you post one, you better do some research because the regulars on this site are smart.
Don't let it stop you from posting in the future though. It was a good topic.
A's all the way in 08 . . . oh never mind!
by micdog2001 on Feb 21, 2008 1:34 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
i did about....
as much research as i was able to do given that i am at work. Next time i'll just wait til i get home and take more time to put it together.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 21, 2008 1:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, no sweat
I don't think anyone out there, myself included, has any problem with someone saying "hey, what about this?" If I think it won't work, I'll say so-- but at least it's a discussion topic. I have no objection whatsoever to this FP on a qualitative level.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Feb 21, 2008 1:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Quick Question about Cust
Once we remove those first two weeks, what were Cust's stats for the rest of the year? I think the reason Cust is so lightly regarded around the league is that once you remove those two weeks, what you get isn't so hot..
Or maybe I'm wrong. This is something I've been curious about all off-season.
by richwol1 on Feb 21, 2008 4:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
From May 22 through the end of the season ...
109 G 440 PA .249/.395/.454
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Feb 21, 2008 4:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's Cool
I kind of asked for it when i said 'any feedback/tweaking is welcome'. I would be disappointed if i posted something on here and didn't get a response from you guys. Afterall, isn't that the point of this site?
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 21, 2008 2:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
i love the topic
powell needs some more press...that guy could be good for sure.
good work.
President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown
by flipgatey3 on Feb 21, 2008 2:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Powell
I'm really rooting for this guy to make it. He went to college in my home state, so there is some personal bias there.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 21, 2008 2:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Can anyone speak a bit about Suzuki?
Everything I heard about him the last couple of seasons was positive, and people seemed to be generally excited to see him be called up. As far as I understood it, it was an inevitability.
The current sentiment doesn't seem to be so hot on him, though. Why the disparity now that he's the full time catcher? Is it because his limited stats don't indicate that he can sustain his pretty good hitting from the end of last year? Is he just not as good of a catcher as Powell, Bowen, or someone else?
I guess I'm just curious as to Suzuki's history as a prospect and why the general feeling about him seems to have shifted.
by RenoTy on Feb 21, 2008 9:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I think you're misinterpretting the Suzuki sentiment
Kurt profiles to be a solid-average to maybe a bit above average at Catcher. No one will outwork him. Kurt would not be a liability if he started for the next 6 years.
But he's not a natural. He's someone who has maximized his potential but he's never had an abundance of tools.
Powell, for example, has always been better behind the plate when healthy. He's got the better arm and can switch hit with power. Powell has the better tool set but has been slowed by injury.
Powell could be great. Suzuki can be an average starter for the next 10 years.
I care.
by grover on Feb 21, 2008 9:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe I am misinterpretting...
It's good to know where he stands now, but did people feel this way about him before he was called up? A lot of 'average' players tend to get stuck in the minors, and nobody really expects them to do much, but from what I remember, which I admit is completely subject to my terrible memory, people seemed to be pretty excited about him for a time.
Maybe it's a case of minor league numbers not telling the whole story? Or am I off my rocker and he was never really thought of as anything more than above average?
Thanks for the reply and info, by the way.
by RenoTy on Feb 21, 2008 10:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the excitement
was partly a product of the "ABK" phenomenon-- Anyone But Kendall.
The fact that it was obvious that Kendall was done, and that the front office actually recognized this fact, was an inestimable relief to a ton of people.
And Suzuki is not a bad player. He's already pretty good, and he has some upside because of his youth, particularly in the power department. He'll probably improve as a defender over the next few seasons. He held his own last season, albeit not in the "hey, this guy is really awesome" way that Buck and Barton played when they were in the lineup.
But people don't look at him and think "wow, this guy could hit 25 homers a year," the way they do with Powell (or Anthony Recker, for that matter). I put up a post the other day about "playoff level," and that's the level which Suzuki seems less likely to reach than the other two.
If Suzuki is your platoon catcher, that's a really, really good thing for your team, because it means you're locked in at a difficult defensive position. If he's your starting catcher, it's not a particularly good thing, but it's not a bad thing either.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Feb 21, 2008 11:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Suzuki
I really like Kurt Suzuki. This is the main reason why i created this post in the first place. It's not that i want to get rid of Cust. It's more along the lines of me wanting to see Powell get a shot. The only downfall is that Powell and Suzuki are both catchers. By downfall i mean, it's not necassarily bad for the team. But it is bad if you are like me and would love to see them both play regularly. Kurt Suzuki is one of those guys that i feel is going to surprise alot of people in a couple of years. I can't honestly base this on anything in particular, but i think he is going to outperform a lot of people's expectations. That being said, if you are a very analytical person, PT's assesment of him is probably the much safer bet.
"Didja ever look at a dollar bill, man? There's some spooky s*** goin' on there. And it's green too." -Slater
by OrlandoAsFan on Feb 22, 2008 6:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Paul, by platoon do you mean platooning Suzuki and
Cust, with Powell moving back and forth between C and DH?
by WaddellCanseco on Feb 22, 2008 11:49 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I suspect it would actually be better
to just do a straight platoon of the catchers. Catchers need actual days off, and DHing is a mediocre substitute for a day off.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Feb 22, 2008 12:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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