The True X Factor?
by Tyler Bleszinski on Feb 18, 2008 8:00 AM PST
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PrintI've been thinking a lot about the A's rotation as I do believe the A's offense will be better this season.
And while everyone is rightfully focusing on names like Harden and Blanton as the the anchors of the rotation in 2008, a component that very well could be the deciding factor whether the A's are in the AL West cellar or the A's wind up competing for the division is the health and transition to the rotation of one Justin Duchscherer. You can read all about his recovery and transition to the rotation here.
Duke has been one of the best set-up men in baseball for the past several years. He and Scot Shields have arguably been the best (not counting Duke's injury-riddled year last year) in all of the American League. So it makes sense to take a guy who was pretty dominant as a starter in the minors and was one of the best in the pen in the bigs in some of the biggest situations and give him a chance in the rotation.
See if Harden can pitch more than 10 games this year, there is little question in my mind what he's going to give this team. Blanton is a pretty sure thing as a really good number two guy. Gaudin was outstanding last season when he was healthy. I still believe that he only went downhill because of an injury. That remains to be seen. But that's a pretty solid top three. Harden is a huuuuuge question mark, yes. Yet I'm just making the somewhat ridiculous assumption that he's finally going to be a part of the A's. The rotation looks pretty good 1 through 3 when making that assumption.
If Duke comes in and has his effective cutter back instead of that floating pitch he was tossing up there last season, then suddenly the A's rotation is really solid 1-4. The A's then can have a cage match to see who fills out the rotation at number five. Still, I do like the look of the rotation with the two big question marks being the obvious one in Harden and the not-as-obvious one in Duchscherer.
Then again, Duke is one of the lone remaining favorites of mine on the team. I love watching him pitch because there is nothing better to me than a guy who can work a batter even if he doesn't have overpowering stuff. I love watching a pitcher like Duke work. I'm just hoping he's healthy and ready to take advantage of the opportunity he's been yearning so desperately to get.
And so are the A's.
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I was just reading about that this morning
I agree that Duke can be counted on as more of an "X factor" than Harden. Rich, because of his past, is more of a hope and pray factor. But yeah, if Duke can regain past form, suddenly our pitching staff has some life. You're looking at four young guys (we'll include Harden) with loads of talent, and plenty of big-league experience to keep us afloat, and maybe even make a run at this thing.
"Oakland has now increased its payroll to the point that it now ranks third in the Bay Area among all McDonald's franchises.”
-Sandy Alderson, former A’s general manager.
Eveland has promise too.
This rotation could be really good or absolutely putrid. I predict a good month, before injuries and trades set in and the bottom falls out.
Harden and Duke don't have that many innings
In a diary a while back someone talked about how pictures who pitched more than 30 innings more than the last year could get hurt. Neither Hardin or Duke have pitched that many innings in a couple years.
Do they both need to miss starts every once in a while to keep fresh?
It's related more to pitchers pitching more than they ever have,
not just more than they did in the literal previous year-- and both Duke and Harden have had more or less full seasons as starting pitchers in their history.
In other words, if you've pitched 150, you're probably safe to go to 180 even if you only pitched 120 last year.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
You are so right
I think the lineup will do just fine, a good defensive team, a lot of good, but not great hitters, a little power. There are enough good players on this team to score enough runs to win. Everything hinges on starting pitching.
I don't believe in putting a starter as a #1, 2 et.al. It rarely works out that your #1 faces their #1 all the time. After the first week of the season it gets all jumbled up. It is not out of the realm of possibility that a player we least expect makes the starting rotation. It may not happen out of Spring Training but might by June depending on what goes on in the minors. Meyer, Eveland, Braden, Gio, who knows? Pitchers come out of nowhere all the time, if the A's get lucky, then perhaps there most worrisome concern can be resolved, that is what is so great about this team this year. Last year at this time Buck was scheduled for Sacramento, Gaudin was a reliever, I would not be surprised to find some similar happening this year.
although I must say
it seems like the first half of the season last year, Haren was always up against Felix or Bedard or Lackey or Beckett up until around the allstar break he was always handling the other teams aces...makes his win % for first half that much more impressive i guess
witty remark
by dtownmbrown on Feb 18, 2008 11:23 PM PST up reply actions
Gaudin
To me, Gaudin is more of an X-factor than Duke. Chad has more recently between the two shown that he can pitch effectively in the majors, and he pitched very well at that time. BB has gone on record as saying that Gaudin has the best pure stuff on the team outside of Harden. I think if Gaudin can come back from his injuries and pitch like he did in the first half last year then he can be a top of the rotation starter.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
Duke has always
been impressive in relief. I am wishing him the best as a starter and praying for his health to hold up. When he would come into a game I always breathed a sigh of relief. Blez.. I'm glad that you gave him a shout out.
The New Moneyball?
Take a failed young starter with promise, give him a year or two of relief work to hone his skills, then turn him back into a starter. It seems to have worked with Gaudin, failed with Kennedy, and now we'lll see how it goes with Duke.
If this is a pattern, then Meyer and Braden should go directly to the bullpen this year, and then if they mature appropriately, become starters again in '09 or '10..
That's the pattern, but Duke doesn't fit it
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought Duke went into long relief only because the club was stacked with starting talent at the time.
"Next year might be an all-out zoo." -- Barry Zito
Not What I Remember
He came up and had a couple of very good outings, then got bombed a couple of times. The A's moved him into long relief, where he proved very effective. Then he was moved to set-up man and then later spot closer. If he'd maintained his effectiveness as a starter, I'd assume he would've stayed a starter.
That article in today's oaklandathletics.com seems to be pure spin, IMHO.
I think Duke went into relief
because at the time he was a two-pitch pitcher with a below average fastball and terrific command - good enough to go 14-2 at AAA but not good enough to succeed in the big leagues. Now, with the addition of the cutter (and a changeup he doesn't use often, but does have), he is much better suited to starting successfully in the big leagues.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Makes Sense
My recollection, though, was that he was touted as having enough different pitches to be a starter when he first came up.
its thats true
then i feel like Dana Eveland should probably start out in our bullpen this year. He has been great in AAA, but not so great in MLB, so why not make him the new Duke? Plus, I just don't see Calero holding up for the whole season in '08.
This Is A's Brand Country
by DyeLongJustice on Feb 18, 2008 2:53 PM PST up reply actions
Duke
He was a starter throughout his minor-league career. He had a great year in Sacramento in 2003 (after the injury). In September of that year he was called up and put in the rotation. His first start was excellent, but the next two were bad.
2004 was the year that started with one roster spot left for Duchscherer or Harville, and many of us were surprised when Harville got moved and Duke went on the roster. I remember that was widely assumed we'd keep Harville because we clearly needed a reliever more than we needed a starter, and Duke was still perceived as a starter then, but Billy went with who he thought was the better player. (Good call on that by BB, by the way.)
That's how Duke became the long reliever. I don't know if it's true the starting pitching was "stacked" but we did have a full rotation in place. I think that was the year when we had four lefties (Mulder, Zito, Lilly, Halama; plus Hudson), and then later in the year Harden took Halama's place.
Somewhere along the way Duke got a reputation for being a pitcher who did fine the first time through the lineup, not so good the second time, and terrible the third time. I'm not sure if that's fair, but it was commonly perceived. Duke alludes to it in the Slusser article.
formerly known as mdl
I remember it slightly differently
Although to be fair, until you brought it up I'd completely forgotten that either/or choice between Harville and Duchscherer. That was an interesting situation.
I don't remember the starter vs. reliever debate (although I'll accept your recollection on that) so much as the hard-thrower vs. soft-tosser contrast. I didn't want to lose either one but I think I'd have kept the harder thrower. Billy made the right choice that time, though.
It's possible one of the reasons we kept Duke is that the hard thrower had better trade value; maybe no one wanted Duke. On the other hand, Harville also fell into one of baseball's "underdog" categories, the short right-hander. We did wind up trading him to the one team with a known predilection for short righties, the Houston Astros.
But we really screwed our chances for eventually having Harden-Haren-Harang-Harville make up three-fifths of our rotation and one-third of our staff and pretty much cornering the Har demographic.
That's pretty funny
Harde..Har..Har.Har...Har
maybe it's just opinion.
But I'd have called that rotation 'stacked' - at least to the point that Duke didn't fit anywhere. I love that you almost forgot Hudson on that staff. Heh. Duke got slid into middle/long relief (and the rest is history, ugh).
I hope we get a full year to evaluate how Duke is as a starter in the majors. He never really got a chance to throw innings and it's obvious he's a great reliever, so there was so no reason to move him back to the rotation until this year. There's worse things in life than being a really good reliever, but I'm sure he'd rather throw 180 innings, than 80.
Lot's of good pitchers bomb in their first month or two at the major league level.
Worth noting
that if you take this for the gospel, Andrew Brown could be starting for the team as early as mid-season. Which might not be a bad idea.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
X Factor
To be frank, I feel like our whole starting rotation is an "X Factor." I mean Harden, Blanton, Gaudin, Duke, and young stud in the 5 spot could be an awesome rotation, potentially even the best in the league. But all four of those guys have significant question marks in the injury, trade, or general quality categories. As talented as that rotation might be, I have sinking feeling that we'll all be singing Nick's Danny Haren lament ("When our ace is Lenny DiNardo...) come May 1st.
by Hegenberger Road on Feb 18, 2008 1:30 PM PST reply actions
Really?
Even firing on all cylinders, I see this rotation having a hard time being even the 3rd best in the AL West (never thought I'd see the day when I'd put the Mariners' 5 starters over the A's). Blanton seems like a pretty fringey to me as a #2-- I'd be interested to see where he ranks in the top 64 starters of the league (by VORP? I dunno, I'm not a very good stathead). And if there's a "young stud" worth throwing out there, I haven't seen him yet.
Lots of pessimism, I know, but I feel like this team isn't even as good as the injury-riddled one from last year. It's basically the same players, except the ones that produced at all got shipped out (Cust excepted).
Blanton is about 20th in the league
in VORP. Lots of above average innings = good for VORP.
As for "worst in the AL West," apparently you haven't had a gander at the Rangers rotation lately. Believe me, things could be a lot worse. I'm pretty sure the A's could replace their entire current rotation with the second string and still have a better rotation than Texas.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Oh, man
I'd never want to imply that the Rangers were better off. When I said "3rd best," I just meant that the Angels and Mariners have stronger rotations. Although your info about Blanton surprises me. Surprises the hell out of me, frankly. Regardless, I don't think it's a good sign when Lenny DiNardo has a realistic shot of throwing every fifth day.
VORP Projections
VORP projections for Blanton has him as 39th in the AL for pitchers, 31st for SP. Interestingly enough, they have Gaudin (25th) and Harden (21st) rated higher than Blanton, but I think you may want to look at WXRL before VORP. That projection has Blanton as 24th (Gaudin 26th, Harden 46th) for SP in the AL. Either way, if one wanted to group the top 14 pitchers as #1s, the next 14 as #2s, then Blanton fits into the latter according to WXRL, but if one was using VORP, then he would be a #3 SP.
Personally, I view him as a #3 SP. That is not a slight against him, it is just I don't view him as a guy who can stop a slide or take the pressure off of a #1 SP; I just don't. His K/9 pretty much sells it for me that his ceiling is as a #3 SP and quite honestly, I think he is going to turn into Livan Hernandez circa de 2007 by the time he hits 31 or so...
I confess that there are several parts of this Constitution which I do not at present approve, but I am not sure I shall never approve them. For having lived long, I have experienced many instances of being obliged by better information, or fuller consideration, to change opinions even on important subjects, which I once thought right, but found to be otherwise.
— Benjamin Franklin
I agree with you.
Blanton is solid but he's a definite number 3 guy on a good team...on ours he could end up as the ace if Harden does his usual "get their hopes up and let them crash and burn when I get hurt" routine.
I like the optimism
I'm looking for an 84-78 year.
I think the heavyweights pretty much kill the Athletics (NYY, Tigers, Angles, Rent Sox) but the A's make it up on Tampon Bay, KayCee, Toronto, Balimore.
"I never predict anything, and I never will." Paul Gascoigne, English footballer
by One won lost won on Feb 18, 2008 3:02 PM PST reply actions
Last year the A's dominated the AL playoff teams
and got rolled by Kansas City and Tampa.
On a game to game basis, baseball is so random that predicting the outcome of a small season series is close to impossible.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Agree, that is what happened in 2007
And that series "crash" at home, in Oakland, vs. KC in May, I feel that was the turning point of the season. It was awful.
Kind of why I'm looking for the reverse, this year. No MBradley, Piazza, Haren, Swisher....it doesn't feel like a team that forgets about the strugglers, unlike last year's team, who got up for the "Major" players like Boston, but mailed it in versus the weak teams.
"I never predict anything, and I never will." Paul Gascoigne, English footballer
by One won lost won on Feb 19, 2008 8:43 PM PST up reply actions
Don't want to start a fanpost about this, so ...
Anyone know what kind of hat the A's will be wearing with their new black unis? Will it be a new black hat of some sort? Or one of the current hats?
my next cinematic interlude will have to be "Fear of a Black Hat"
Even if they're clever, they become stupid with repetition. @('.')@
would that mean
That we'd all have to read and interpret as gospel, FYM - ASMD?
Rusty Cundieff just might be a genius, but I don't know if I can rate one-hit wonders that highly.
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