Why Blanton Won't be Traded

by GusanoQuemador on Feb 13, 2008 10:09 AM PST Comment 36 comments

I believe the A's think that Blanton is better than the rest of baseball thinks he is. Trading him now would be breaking the cardinal rule in business: Buy Low, Sell High.

The A's see Blanton as a top of the rotation guy who is durable, and is getting better and better every year. He completed 7 innings in the 2nd half of the season 8 times compared to Haren's 2. For this reason they will be asking for a return much like the return we got on Haren, which is why we are seeing reports that our demands are too high for him.

Haren, on the other hand , was just the opposite. The A's didn't think he was as good as the rest of the industry thought he was. He was slightly over-rated having started the All-star game and some of his peripheral stats indicated that he was lucky in his success. This belief was supported by the fact that he came down to earth in the second half.

Blanton will be an Athletic as long as he continues to be under valued. Its very possible that Blanton has an excellent year and if the A's aren't in contention he could be traded at the deadline, but not until then.

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everyone has a price

I don't think the A's will get what their initial asking price was, but not trading Blanton if 2 of Bailey/Cueto/Votto are offered would be silly.

by rebus on Feb 13, 2008 10:32 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

i do love Blanton though.

probably a bit irrationally, but I think he can consistently manage that absurdly low walk rate and even improve his K/BB ratio this season. I think of him as a solid #2 and not having peaked yet.

by rebus on Feb 13, 2008 10:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think its going to be one of above 3 and Danny Herrera.
Danny Herrera

by apilgrim on Feb 13, 2008 3:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Not 1 of 3, but probably 1 of 2

It would make little sense for Beane to take Votto over Bailey or Cueto.

by methodrampage on Feb 13, 2008 3:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What about Cueto, Todd Frazier (3B/SS), + lower level prospect?

Why the love for Danny Herrera?

by Colorado Fan on Feb 13, 2008 3:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

5-8, 145?!

The guy is smaller than I am.

Doesn't exactly scream "projectable" to me.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Feb 13, 2008 4:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I am surprised you didn't already know about him PaulT. Hes 100% on the A's radar. I remember when I saw the Volquez for Hamilton trade, I knew the A's were going to try and go after him. Hes totally unprojectable-hes smaller than 5'8". Cueto is a small guy as well.

Anyway look at his peripherals-they are stunning. If he were 6'4" 185 lb. he would be the best pitcher in the minors.

Todd Frazier would be nice as well.

by apilgrim on Feb 13, 2008 10:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

what about Drew Stubbs?

I know we need future outfielders like we need 1st basemen, but Cueto+Stubbs sounds nice. I know next to nothing about the Reds' system though... how are their SS prospects (low minors)?

by rebus on Feb 13, 2008 5:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

todd frazier

is who you need to look up

President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown

by flipgatey3 on Feb 13, 2008 5:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

problem

with Frazier is he was the Reds (late) first rounder in 2007 and I think they would be unlikely to trade him this early in his Reds career. But it still could happen, thats just my guess.

by apilgrim on Feb 13, 2008 10:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

its a shame

we could have drafted Todd Frazier or Nick Noonan. I have to admit I was disappointed with Simmons. Why Simmons over Roemer? Anyway not a big deal, but I was hoping after our recent dip into high schoolers we would take a chance on Nick Noonan to develop for our middle infield.

by apilgrim on Feb 13, 2008 10:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

All I'm saying is...

that Beane probably won't be taking Votto + another lower prospect.

by methodrampage on Feb 13, 2008 5:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

not love

I don't love the guy, I just think he will be in the trade.

by apilgrim on Feb 13, 2008 10:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

gotcha

I go to www.mlbtraderumors.com, and i see Herrera's name popping up over there, too.

by Colorado Fan on Feb 14, 2008 8:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The essence of Moneyball.

by Dalesman on Feb 13, 2008 10:32 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I think this is probably true

For at least the time being the A's are in no hurry to move Blanton and I think that is correct. From what we have heard the price tag on Blanton seems to be set high and I don't think it will be lowered any time soon.

If Blanton is going to get moved some team is going to have to seriously up their valuation of him.

by DiegoAsFan on Feb 13, 2008 10:46 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Well don't you think...

That Beane NEEDS to get a MLB-ready SP in return? If that's the case, then most teams probably think that their MLB-ready prospect will at least be as good as Blanton.

"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra

by brenarlo on Feb 13, 2008 10:55 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Well don't you think...
That Beane NEEDS to get a MLB-ready SP in return?

No. Maybe one a year away, but we've got lots of warm bodies for this season (out of contention).

by rebus on Feb 13, 2008 11:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No I don't think...

Beane doesn't need a MLB-ready SP in return. He'd most likely be fine with a guy who is 1-2 years out. And no, not a lot of rookie SP are going to match Blanton's production.

by methodrampage on Feb 13, 2008 11:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

...

I've been telling most of my friends that we value Blanton more than anyone else... Although the Reds might think they could get another Harang off us. The deal will only go through with one of these "stacked" trades that have been shown.

mmmmmmm.... VORP Bring back Felix "Lost him to the cards" Jose!

by gdub171 on Feb 13, 2008 10:57 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Valuation

If Johann Santana can't get a great return, then certainly neither can Joe Blanton. I don't think he's going anywhere this season. If he turns in another season with great peripheral numbers, then I think Billy might get what he wants next winter. Of course, if it looks like the A's are contenders in 2009, Billy may want to keep him.

by richwol1 on Feb 13, 2008 12:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

This is a bad analogy

Santana's contract situation and Blanton's are not remotely similar.

Blanton's a value buy, not a Ferrari. I don't see any reason why Beane wouldn't trade him if someone is willing to meet the price he's set. Trading him now might not literally be trading him at his peak-- we have no idea when that will be-- but it would certainly be selling high.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Feb 13, 2008 12:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

i feel weird

not seeing the cardinal precepts link as your sig...but i like it.

how bout them cardinal anyway

President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown

by flipgatey3 on Feb 13, 2008 5:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Link's still in my profile

I might put it back if I can fit both of them into the sig.

I had to put that line in there though.

I'm actually working on trying to project NEXT season's Pac-10 as kind of a lark, so I'll probably be putting the first part of that up next week during the slow week for the Bay Area schools. And for once this week I should actually be watching both Stanford games.

I might noodle around with analyzing Cardinal baseball a bit this year, although I don't think I picked the best season to do it.

It's amazing in retrospect how stacked the 2003 team (which went to the championship) was. Jed Lowrie, Carlos Quentin, Danny Putnam and Ryan Garko were all starters on that squad.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Feb 13, 2008 6:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone to watch on the Cardinal?

Sean Ratliff, Joey August, Drew Soren?

by jeffro on Feb 14, 2008 3:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No idea

I've never even tried following college baseball before. It's a completely new thing to me.

I'm just trying to stave off the inevitable post-Stanley Cup Finals pre-Olympics intense sports boredom by a month or so.

I know it's anathema around here, but baseball-- only-- doesn't cut it for me. Not that I won't watch it-- I will-- it's just not "enough."

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Feb 14, 2008 4:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Have you ever coached, Paul?

Hoops, I mean.

"I still say put Jack Cust on some roller skates, arm him with a squeeze tube of epoxy, and let him loose in CF...righteous!" -MRod

by notsellingjeans on Feb 14, 2008 8:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Good lord, no

I have all the basketball ability of Warwick Davis on LSD. I'd get cut from the team at Coach K Fantasy Camp.

In other news, fouling deliberately at the end of games is the dumbest shit ever. As is giving every f***ing out of bounds ball to the home team even when it's obvious to TV viewers that it was off their player.

NOT happy right now.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Feb 14, 2008 10:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No it's not ...

when you're losing by 2 points with 20 seconds left or 5 with 30, can you think of any other way to get the ball enough times to have any chance at all?

Granted, it's not a high percentage move -- but the alternative is basically a guaranteed loss.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Feb 15, 2008 10:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not saying it's a dumb strategy

I'm saying that it's dumb that it's a LEGAL strategy.

Non-shooting fouls on consecutive possessions inside the final minute should be automatic intentional fouls.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Feb 15, 2008 12:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Why?

What problem could that possibly solve? I mean, I don't know about you, but I like sports to be more exciting, not less. Hitting free throws at the end of the game is an important part of winning. If your team can't do that, they don't deserve the W.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Feb 16, 2008 1:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What if?

What if the A's are only a handful of games away from a playoff berth in July? Stranger things have happened.

Would you personally keep Blanton or trade him for a 2 to 3 very highly rated prospects?

by jeffro on Feb 13, 2008 12:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

that's a gray area

if contention becomes realistic, you might as well wait until the off season. hey, if Blanton shoulders a great load down the stretch or (goodness gracious) in the playoffs, teams might line up. and that's with the big free agent market for pitchers next off season.

on the other hand, it would be difficult to turn down a very good value deal. so... gray area.

by rebus on Feb 13, 2008 12:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No

Stranger things have not happened.

by methodrampage on Feb 13, 2008 3:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Another thing to consider is...

...that if we trade him now, a team will be trading for 3 full years of him. In the middle of the season it will only be 2.5, and at the end of this year it would be 2 years, meaning the package we get in return will probably be smaller since the other team will be getting less in return.

I think Bailey and Cueto project to be better than Blanton (I could be wrong though) so I wouldn't mind pulling the trigger if we can get one of them from Cincinnati.

Juan Pierre: 44 Million Dollars, Juan Pierre's 3.4 WARP3: Priceless

by Travis Buck Nuckin on Feb 13, 2008 1:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

3 > 2.5, true,

But if that .5 is a stretch run for a team that thinks Blanton might put them into the playoffs or beyond, that's probably more valuable than just trading him to whoever's willing to give the most now.

by Nate on Feb 13, 2008 10:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs