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Baseball Is Complicated - Why Always Look For A Simple Answer?

Maybe I don’t know anything about baseball, or maybe I have missed a very fundamental part of a ‘simple’ statistic, but since Fire Joe Morgan was willing to take apart this article, I strongly suspect it’s not just me.

Maybe I simply expect too much from the official MLB.com site, but in my opinion, there are a few things wrong with a statistic like this.

From the Mets ‘mailbag’:

I enjoy reading your stories. You give straight answers to tough questions, and I look forward to your Mets mailbags. That being said, I have a comment about two recent stories dealing with Brian Schneider. Does the statistic "RBIs per 100 at-bats" really measure how valuable a hitter is? You have cited that stat in at least two stories comparing Brian Schneider to Paul Lo Duca.
Schneider is a strong defensive catcher, and a below-average hitter. The RBI as a stat is not nearly as telling about a player's ability to be a productive hitter as are on-base percentage, slugging percentage, home runs, extra-base hits and even the vastly overrated batting average stat. I just feel that citing that statistic adds little, and is somewhat insulting to students of the game.
-- James K., no hometown given

I beg to differ, and I guess I'm obligated to explain my use of RBIs per 100 at-bats because yours is one of nine e-mails I've received that have questioned it. To me, it is a fundamental and quite legitimate means of measuring run production.
Computers have contributed to a current glut of statistics that, to a degree, distort the picture. We have so many now that we lose focus on what is most important. The objective of the game is to win, and to win a team must outscore its opponent. Nothing, therefore, is more important than runs -- both producing and preventing them.

Is this really where we are in measuring baseball? Are we looking for such a simple answer to ‘how good a player is’ that we now have narrowed it down to how many RBI’s they have in 100 at-bats? Anyone who has ever tried to explain the game of baseball to someone from another country knows how complicated this sport truly is. Why would we expect our analysis of individual players to be any different?

It’s statistics like this that award a pitcher a Cy Young award based solely on their win totals. Are we going to base our MVP now on number of RBI’s? And if you’re going to make up a statistic, can’t you use something like RBI’s in number of RBI chances instead of merely 100 AB’s?

Are RBI’s even that important? Are they a statistic even within a player’s control? What am I missing?

0 recs  |  Comment 35 comments

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RE: the author of said article

This dude just doesn't understand rate stats and in that he is trying to bastardize a counting stat into a rate state.

First, yes, RBIs are very important as they drive in a run.  It is the same thing with scoring the run.

Second, RBIs should not be the measuring stick of a player because as you query; they are situation dependent and therefore using plate appearances (which this dude doesn't use... um, hello, sac fly... idiot) is not a viable denominator.  This is also the same as scoring runs.

Third, I would agree that moving runners over is more important.  I mean, if player A is on 1st, and player B hits a single, then depending on the speed of player A and the location, velocity, etc of said single could produce a run... but maybe not.  This is just one example of why it is unfair to use RBIs to define a player's effectiveness.  I mean, think of all of the poor player's who have had the Big Hurt hitting in front of them... that is if RBIs were one of their bonus stipulations versus say having a player like Rickey Henderson hitting in front of you.

Anyway, the point is, this dude is an idiot and should not be writing for MLB.com because I only idiots look at it this way... well, I guess I will give him credit for wanting to look at a subject in a different light... it is just that he is using a black light and he has been smoking crack, y'know?  Not very effective way to enlighten one's self... actually, maybe it is... I have never tried... so... yeah.

by bjk15 on Feb 10, 2008 10:57 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

This article got FJM'd

linky

"Evidently, a large number of people said, 'We really need more vermin at the ballpark, Artie.'" - Nick, 10/7/07

by doctorK on Feb 10, 2008 1:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

D'oh!

Maybe I should've read the whole posting by BBG before adding that last comment.

/Bonehead

"Evidently, a large number of people said, 'We really need more vermin at the ballpark, Artie.'" - Nick, 10/7/07

by doctorK on Feb 10, 2008 1:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Except when I'm bored and looking at leaderboards

I never, ever, ever look at RBIs. I don't know who had the most last year, or on the A's, or the career RBI totals of my favorite players.

What bugs me is the argument that runs are most important, and RBIs measure how many runs were driven in, so therefore it must be important. For some reason, people can't understand that it's what a player does that (may or may not) cause a run to be driven in (walks, singles, doubles, etc.), and how often those things are done, that really determines run production.

by thejd44 on Feb 10, 2008 11:11 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

This is me bugging you:

A team cannot win without scoring more than the other team.  Similarly, a team cannot win without limiting the other team to scoring less runs than their own team scores.

Thus simplicity bears out as runs are the most important stat in baseball.

by bjk15 on Feb 10, 2008 11:17 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Runs are absolutely the most important

stat in baseball -- in terms of determining who won baseball games. It's subtle ... but true.

That said, Runs and RBIs are just slightly better than useless when evaluating how much a player actually contributed to their teams scoring runs, and, thus, winning and losing.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Feb 10, 2008 12:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Unless you believe in "clutchness"
What are they going to do...send you to baseball jail?

by methodrampage on Feb 11, 2008 12:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I like to judge players by

RBIs per lunar month.

Brain Sabean lol.

by rebus on Feb 10, 2008 11:17 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

this is really stupid

Everyone knows that the only thing matters in baseball isn't runs, but wins -- and of course it doesn't matter how many wins a team gets in the regular season, it's only the ultimate success that counts.

My new ultimate stat is WSRBI: multiply the number of World Series titles won in a given season by the number of regular-season runs he drove in. That will tell you how much each player in the majors contributed to his team's ultimate goal.

The best that can be said about this is that it's imaginative. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Feb 10, 2008 11:25 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Worst player in MLB

ARod with a WSRBI of 0.

Based on this important new stat, I am forced to admit that maybe the NY media was right all along...

by AsFanInLA on Feb 10, 2008 2:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

zackly

Don't mean a thang if you ain't got that rang.

The best that can be said about this is that it's imaginative. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Feb 10, 2008 2:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Your views

are compelling and I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

Above all else, tater tots.

by Leopold Bloom on Feb 10, 2008 8:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

can I have $10?
The best that can be said about this is that it's imaginative. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Feb 10, 2008 10:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Somewhat tangentially

When I work on my cars I like to have a radio going, with an A's game if the time is right, and with some other sport filler if I have to.  Yesterday that was KNBR's live broadcast of their Fan Fest (score another thing the Giants have that we don't).

Anyway, during one segment the broadcast crew was yukking it up, and Jon Miller went on a long ramble about OPS.  Except he pronounced it "Ops" (rhymes with drops), and he and Kuiper and Krukow proceeded to put on a faux-dopey little skit, as if to suggest without quite saying that some pointy-headed Poindexters on the eastern side of the bay get excited by the intricacies of (gasp) adding two numbers together, while we real-men Giants fans know that what matters is runs.  At which point Miller began to introduce Randy Winn and his awesome accomplishment of having been the only Giant to hit .300 last year.

Almost drove me to KSFO.  Almost.

There is an A in Whimsy.

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Feb 10, 2008 11:27 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Another thing that bugs me

Is the blatant hyprocrisy among those who mock "statheads." A guy like the Mets mlb.com writer will rip something like OPS for being too mathematical, yet he's INVENTING HIS OWN STATISTICS. He's doing exactly what his ilk criticizes, except he's doing it with bad math and a poor understanding of how the sport works.

A guy like Joe Morgan will say things about how stats don't tell you much, then go on and on about how many runs a player scored (not that runs scored are totally meaningless, there are just better measures out there) or how many saves a pitcher has.

So the real question is: Why do these meatballs act this way? And do they even realize how hypocritical they are? And is it wrong that this hypocrisy makes me want to cause significant damage to their skeletal integrity with a 2x4?

by thejd44 on Feb 10, 2008 12:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The answer(s) is/are:
  1. Because they are incompetent and unaware.
  1. No, for an example, see most human beings.
  1. No, however, with all actions there are ramifications for ... acting them out.

Personally, I cannot wait for these same idiots to be absolutely flummoxed by Pitch F/x data.  Seriously, their heads are going to explode when a "stathead" quantifies the velocity of a pitch.  It'll be great.

by bjk15 on Feb 10, 2008 12:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Haven't You Figured It Out?

These guys are being paid to be experts. It's an ego-blow to learn that other people, using computers and analysis, can make better judgements than they can, they who know every player personally and ostensibly watch every game. They're also guys who were around in the days when everyone believed that averages, RBIs and wins were the be-all and end-all in determining the quality of a player. These stats serve as their comfort food, and they don't want to lose them.

But mostly, they're scared their reason for working is being put in doubt. What's really funny to me, though, is how not only does a site like FJM work that angle, but more often than not, it also puts their work as writers to the test. The thing is: many of these guys, particularly the ex-players, aren't really writers. So they can't write and their expertise is extremely limited. By all rights, they should have different day jobs. So they're very threatened because, in a way, they've been busted.

What amazes me, beyond the sheer insecurity of these sportswriters and sports pundits, is how many think they can write funny columns. Um, they can't.

by richwol on Feb 11, 2008 10:59 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

At one point last season

I was making fun of Bobby Crosby in the game threads for a long streak of plate appearances without an RBI.  I think the streak reached well into the 60s in plate appearances.  But that is really nothing more than a statistical oddity.  I noticed as I was keeping track of the streak how few real RBI opportunities Crosby was getting.

Raw RBI numbers are not too significant.  However, the number of pop-ups with runners on third base and less than 2 out is very significant, because that can result in objects flying across my living room, causing considerable damage.

by Soaker on Feb 10, 2008 12:48 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

RBIs as an individual stat

My opinion is that the RBI is nearly worthless as an individual stat because it depends on what the hitter's teammates did before he had the at-bat that generated the RBI. Two examples:

  1. Runner at second, two outs. Hitter smokes a single to LF. If the runner is Ichiro Suzuki, he scores without a play. If the runner is Frank Thomas, maybe he makes it to third. The hitter did the right thing, but whether or not he gets an RBI depends on who was on base.
  1. Barry Bonds posted an OPS+ of 170 last season, but a number of writers flamed him for not having enough RBIs (he only had 66). It wasn't his fault that the rest of his team never got on base.

Another thing that drives me nuts is when RBIs are used as a measure of a great season (the standard is 100+ RBI). FJM had a post where Joe Morgan nailed someone for not having a good season because he only had 80-some RBIs. Just for reference, Ruben Sierra had 101 RBI in 1993 for the A's while posting this truly awful line: .233/.288/.390 (OPS+ 86). According to the RBI-heads, he had a great year that season.

"Evidently, a large number of people said, 'We really need more vermin at the ballpark, Artie.'" - Nick, 10/7/07

by doctorK on Feb 10, 2008 1:32 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Just remember what I said a few saturdays ago.

Runs are the only way to measure offensive contribution.  Runs scored and RBI were a (bad) proxy for a century.  Now we have better ways.  Onward and upward.

stat-addled alien overlord

by salb918 on Feb 10, 2008 2:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

and like A.E. Housman once said

people use statistics like a drunk uses a lamppost -- for support, not for illumination.

I was one of those guys who was impressed by RBI totals growing up. It was a sexy stat back then.

But like salb says, onward and upward.

"Baseball- like movies, newspapers, and magazines- has fallen into the hands of rich, vulgar people who neither love or understand it." - Hal Crowther

by 67MARQUEZ on Feb 10, 2008 3:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

A's signed Sweeney
Off topic, but just wanted to make it known Sweeney was brought into the fold. Minor-league deal too, so a good move I think.

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/02/10/as-sign-mike-sweeney/

by ET90210 on Feb 10, 2008 3:42 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

but what's his RBI/100AB rate?
The best that can be said about this is that it's imaginative. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Feb 10, 2008 4:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

17.9 for his career ...

14.3 in 2007

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Feb 10, 2008 4:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

he's obviously forgotten how to win

Good thing he's coming to Oakland in '08.

The best that can be said about this is that it's imaginative. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Feb 10, 2008 5:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I miss the GWRBI.
"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL

by oblique on Feb 10, 2008 5:40 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I miss GWAR
The best that can be said about this is that it's imaginative. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Feb 10, 2008 5:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

GWAR song

dedicated to Bobby Crosby

"U Ain't Shit"

My life is in a rut, I need a good
kick in the butt! My mind meets the
Hand of Doom--Dontcha know--He's
in this room!!!
U-ain't-shit-until!!
U learn how to rock!!!
Where's my fuckin' axe? Don't need
no shit playin' sax! Get the fuck--
get the fuck outta my face! Cause
tonight there's meat on the menu!
U ain't shit until you learn how to
rock!!!

by ChickenStanley on Feb 10, 2008 6:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I miss the old GWEN Stefani.
"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL

by oblique on Feb 10, 2008 8:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I miss Elmer Fudd

at Nashville's biggest landmark.

Above all else, tater tots.

by Leopold Bloom on Feb 10, 2008 8:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I miss CBGB's.

Gabba gabba hey.

Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com - Stop by and mock me for getting my domain stolen.

by Ozzz on Feb 11, 2008 10:11 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

HollywoodOz: the only man who could ...

... talk his way into CBGB's, and talk his way out of CGV's.

The best that can be said about this is that it's imaginative. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Feb 11, 2008 11:37 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Monkeyball: He's like SCTV.
Only with less dependence on Eugene Levy.
Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com - Stop by and mock me for getting my domain stolen.

by Ozzz on Feb 11, 2008 12:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I miss GUMMI bears

damn diet.

"Baseball- like movies, newspapers, and magazines- has fallen into the hands of rich, vulgar people who neither love or understand it." - Hal Crowther

by 67MARQUEZ on Feb 11, 2008 11:28 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

My personal favorite stat:

RSNB - or Runs Scored by Next Batter.

It measures the 'vibe' created by the hitter, and the luck he brings those that follow.

Which, incidentally, it only marginally less useful than measuring Wins by a pitcher, or RBIs, since both are entirely dependent on other people doing their jobs well, being at the right place at the right time, and the opposition sucking ass.

Picture it:
Rickey draws a walk.
Rickey steals 2nd.
Rickey steals 3rd.
Hitter pops out to left field, Rickey tags up and gets home.

But Rickey didn't score no RBI. Rickey's RBI's per 100 ABs sits at zero!

RICKEY IS WORTHLESS!!

The guy's a Mets fan. Case closed.

Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com - Stop by and mock me for getting my domain stolen.

by Ozzz on Feb 11, 2008 10:16 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

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