BP's Pecota Released

by SuperBean on Feb 1, 2008 8:28 PM PST Comment 39 comments

While the Pecota cards are not online yet, members can download the entire leagues weighted mean projections now at BP.com. A few A's of note:

Cust: .239/.383/.438 21 HR in 439 ABs
Buck: .278/.353/.447
Barton: .273/.360/.425
Street: 2.62 ERA
Blanton: 4.40 ERA

It also thinks Harden is going to pitch 81 innings, DLS and Gio Gonzalez could already hold their own with ERAs under 5, and Crosby is in for another slow season.

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Comments

that SLG is way too low for Cust

but still an 800+ OPS, which is better than everyone else in our lineup sides Buck.

by Zonis on Feb 1, 2008 8:40 PM PST reply actions

Even giving him a horrible 139 Ks

that's a BABIP of only .320 or so (and an on-contact slugging percentage of only-- eyeballing here-- about .600).

I predict that that prediction will not be correct. It's predicting that his contact quality will regress from "by far the best in the league" to "slightly above average."

cardinalprecepts.blogspot.com

by PaulThomas on Feb 1, 2008 10:05 PM PST up reply actions

Yes

All the numbers for Jack seem low. Cust has 539 AB's in the majors. He has 31 Hrs, a .247 BA and a .868 OPS. PECOTA is low.

Jim

by jarforcefatherofforce on Feb 2, 2008 4:08 AM PST up reply actions

It's just shy of a ...

.200 IsoSlg ... which isn't unreasonable ...

he relies on an "unsustainable" BABIP, so, until he sustains it, expect his projections to be "pessimistic" ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Feb 2, 2008 4:35 AM PST up reply actions

Cust needs to go organic ...

... reduce his carbon footprint, rotate his crops, let one field lie fallow every season.

The best that can be said about this is that it's imaginative. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Feb 2, 2008 7:13 AM PST up reply actions

in contradistinction to Slashin' Byrnes

Double Fudge Brownie

by Ice Cream on Feb 2, 2008 7:20 AM PST up reply actions

we need to fight deForstation

The best that can be said about this is that it's imaginative. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Feb 2, 2008 7:35 AM PST up reply actions

dammit monkeyball, I'm a doctor not an agronomist

Double Fudge Brownie

by Ice Cream on Feb 2, 2008 9:29 AM PST up reply actions

and you make no bones about it

The best that can be said about this is that it's imaginative. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Feb 2, 2008 10:17 AM PST up reply actions

is this another Vegan reference?

by OaklandSi on Feb 2, 2008 5:06 PM PST up reply actions

Worse.

Star Trek. The original series. Vegans of a dog star variety.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Feb 2, 2008 5:30 PM PST up reply actions

Ooops.

Sirus it the dog star....isn't it?

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Feb 2, 2008 5:31 PM PST up reply actions

As mister 3 true outcomes I think it would be expected that his BABIP would be very high. Basically, many of the pitches that others put into play and get outs or get bloop singles or find a hole, Cust either strikes out or walks resulting in his relatively low batting average, high OBP, a high K rate.

by Donner on Feb 2, 2008 10:27 PM PST up reply actions

True. Cust is at least a .800 slugger.

by WaddellCanseco on Feb 2, 2008 9:19 AM PST up reply actions

Pecota was released?

I really thought he had some potential. :-(

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 1, 2008 9:05 PM PST reply actions

no, he was designated for assignment

rumor has it we're trading him for the infamous Player To Be Named Later.

by Zonis on Feb 1, 2008 9:28 PM PST up reply actions

Darn you Nico!

You're gonna overshadow my diary with your witty banter!!

by SuperBean on Feb 1, 2008 9:30 PM PST up reply actions

you got it all wrong

P is for penitentary...and Pecota was released.

put rings on his fingers and shoes on his feet!

"Baseball- like movies, newspapers, and magazines- has fallen into the hands of rich, vulgar people who neither love or understand it." - Hal Crowther

by 67MARQUEZ on Feb 1, 2008 9:37 PM PST up reply actions

or maybe it's for "penitentiary"

nico hates grammatical and spelling errors..

sigh, i'm going back to posting pictures.

"Baseball- like movies, newspapers, and magazines- has fallen into the hands of rich, vulgar people who neither love or understand it." - Hal Crowther

by 67MARQUEZ on Feb 1, 2008 9:41 PM PST up reply actions

A picture is worth a thousand words

which, of course, are full of grammatical errors.

by Zonis on Feb 1, 2008 11:49 PM PST up reply actions

Excellent, 67MARQUEZ!

More goats, please.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Feb 2, 2008 9:05 AM PST up reply actions

goats

"Baseball- like movies, newspapers, and magazines- has fallen into the hands of rich, vulgar people who neither love or understand it." - Hal Crowther

by 67MARQUEZ on Feb 2, 2008 7:30 PM PST up reply actions

that second one

is one of my fondest memories

by OaklandSi on Feb 2, 2008 9:35 PM PST up reply actions

i was camping with my brothers

i know...october?

anyway, it was even more surreal, listening to it on the radio

"Baseball- like movies, newspapers, and magazines- has fallen into the hands of rich, vulgar people who neither love or understand it." - Hal Crowther

by 67MARQUEZ on Feb 2, 2008 9:51 PM PST up reply actions

third picture

I didn't need to see that

by Cutthemullet on Feb 6, 2008 1:16 AM PST up reply actions

So what's the overall picture?

I'm always curious to see what PECOTA sees as overall W-L.

by MrIncognito on Feb 2, 2008 8:34 AM PST reply actions

Mark Ellis

Isn't he from South Pecota?

"The A's player I was always uneasy with when he came up in the critical spot was all of them."--Tosk

by EddieVegas_NRAF on Feb 2, 2008 10:34 AM PST reply actions

hahahaha good one

President of the Joey Devine fan club as of 1/15/08. Accepting applications for other positions. "He has no equivalent." -Paul DePodesta on Jeremy Brown

by flipgatey3 on Feb 4, 2008 10:26 AM PST up reply actions

fifth starter candidates

Last WHIP ERA EqH9 EqBB9 EqSO9 EqHR9
Braden 1.41 4.64 9.0 3.1 6.7 1.0
DiNardo 1.58 5.17 10.2 3.4 4.4 0.9
Eveland 1.53 4.75 9.1 4.0 5.5 0.7
Meyer 1.57 5.59 9.4 4.0 5.9 1.3
Saarloos 1.49 4.51 10.0 2.9 4.3 0.8
Smith 1.60 5.58 10.2 3.5 4.7 1.4
Windsor 1.64 5.81 10.5 3.7 5.5 1.2

if saarloos has a lower era than the other six, i'll eat my hat.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Feb 2, 2008 12:32 PM PST reply actions

Windsor isn't an option

he needs to spend at least a year recovering in AAA from surgery, and even then, his career might be done.

My guess is that the battle is primarily between Meyer, Eveland and Smith. Braden looks like he'd be best in the bullpen, especially if he can use the screwball.

by Zonis on Feb 2, 2008 2:46 PM PST up reply actions

I wana know what PECOTA says...

about Haren, Swisher, Kotsay and Scutaro versus their replacments. I Denorfia for Kotsay, Sweeney and Brown for Swisher and Murphy for Scutaro.

by Zonis on Feb 2, 2008 2:48 PM PST reply actions

Well...

I'll just use OPS...

Kotsay: .683
Denorfia: .714

Swisher: .874
Brown: .719
Sweeney: .702

Scoot: .717
Murphy: .687

by SuperBean on Feb 2, 2008 3:37 PM PST up reply actions

.714 for Denorfia?

Jeez. That's radically lower than everything else I've seen. (Most of them have been in the .750-830 range.)

Well, let's hope that's not the case, anyway.

cardinalprecepts.blogspot.com

by PaulThomas on Feb 2, 2008 9:28 PM PST up reply actions

others

zips: .788
james: .835
marcel: .780

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Feb 2, 2008 9:59 PM PST up reply actions