Okay, 'Ben Sheets' was a dirty trick to get people in here, but I seriously do love the guy and would like to see some pros and cons about acquiring him. He could come with a short-term contract I think, and I mean whatever the Rangers offer him we could match and he'd probably rather play in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oakland...

But anyway...

So I was looking at some baseball gambling sites, and I noticed that right now the A's are projected at a 1/41 shot to win the world series, in the lowest tier of the projected teams. Seeing as gambling reflects the consumer and not the expert, it is no surprise that the A's are perpetually undervalued, so I ask the question -- is now the time to take a shot at capitalizing on this inequality, albeit an unlikely winner?

Let's say the A's add Johnson and Giambi or Furcal, take your pick - whatever you prefer and the gambling odds remain the same immediately following these acquisitions, 1/41 longshot for the A's to win it all. Btw, the Angels are a 2/15 at present. The question is how great is the discrepancy here?

Well, lets now say that not only do these A's moves happen, but that the Angels miss out on both CC and Tex, acquiring some minor but only +2-3 wins overall impact FAs and/or trade acquisitions.

If this were to happen, I'd peg the A's at roughly 40% chance to win the division, with Angels at 45-50% and Rangers at 10-15% and Mariners at a percent of a percent. Add on top of that the chance to win the wild card, which seems slim given the AL East, but still existent, I'll say the A's have a 42% chance of making the playoffs in my scenario.

Now, the playoffs are indeed a crap shoot (right? RIGHT?!?!), but if the A's make it I'm betting they are more likely to be underdogs than not. So rather than a 1/8 chance, I'll say they would be more likely to have a 1/9 chance to win the series should they make the playoffs.

All in all, this would mean I would be projecting the A's to have about a 4.6% chance to win the world series, while the gambling community would presumably still be waging (if I acted promptly) that the A's have more like a 2.4% chance to win the world series.

Also, keep in mind if I hit a price-threshold on some of these sites, ~$100, they will give me another $50 on my bet, thus increasing the inequality payout by another 50% margin.

I want to pull the trigger, now, someone smart give me input to prevent this from happening. Either that, or all aboard the Titanic. Are my A's projections overly favorable given these assumptions? How about if the Angels do acquire Tex and little else?

Ben Sheets?!?!