The Answer at SS: Pennington?
by Uncle Charlie on Dec 8, 2008 10:27 PM PST
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PrintIf there's one thing everyone seems to agree on, it's that the A's won't make the playoffs with Bobby Crosby as the starting shortstop next year. If there's one thing everyone can't agree on, it's who we should bring in to take Crosby's place... Here's my case for Cliff Pennington
For anyone who hasn't used it before, Baseball Musings has a great tool called "The Lineup Analyzer." Here it is: http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py.
Now, I haven't tested the accuracy of the lineup analyzer extensively, but from the little research I have done, I have found it to be a good rough estimator of the run-scoring potential of an offense (based on the individual players' OBPs and SLGs). For example, if you punch in the OBP and SLG for the A's starting lineup last season (Suzuki, Barton, Ellis, Crosby, Hannahan, Brown, Sweeney, Gonzo, Cust), the lineup analyzer estimates the A's would score 4.1 runs/game, or approximately 664 runs. In fact, the A's scored 644 runs last season... pretty close. I did backwards-looking calculations for a number of other teams for the 2008 season, and the lineup analyzer seems to get pretty close in terms of "estimating" what a team will score based on the individual players' OBPs and SLGs (within 0.10-0.15 runs/game).
So, I decided to take the current 2009 A's lineup and punch their projected stats (from www.fangraphs.com, which has posted the Marcel and Bill James projections for next season... I used the average of the two) into the lineup analyzer to see where we were sitting right now (of course, using projected stats adds significant amount of uncertainty to this exercise, but it's a fun exercise nonetheless).
Here are those results: Suzuki (347 OBP / 390 SLG); Barton (349 OBP / 400 SLG); Ellis (329 OBP / 398 SLG); Chavez (333 OBP / 436 SLG); Crosby (304 OBP / 365 SLG); Holliday (392 OBP, 546 SLG); Sweeney (346 OBP, 400 SLG); Buck (348 OBP, 448 SLG); Cust (383 OBP, 476 SLG)... ESTIMATED RUNS PER GAME: 5.03.
One thing I wanted to do was to see how much better/worse our offense would be with Cliff Pennington at SS. From what I've read in Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, Pennington is a plus-denfender at SS. Yet, most people seem to have him pegged as a utility middle infielder because he doesn't have the bat to hold down a major-league job.
As we all know, a run saved is as good as a run earned... in my mind, that means that a plus-defender at a key defensive position should always get a look (especially one who has historically put up good OBP numbers)... So, I plugged Pennington into the lineup for Crosby and, lo and behold, the A's were now projected to score 5.08 runs per game. Not a huge increase, but 8-10 more runs over the course of a season is another win or so... and every win counts.
But, the more important thing about this exercise was realizing how little Rafael Furcal's bat would actually help us for the amount of money we'd be spending on him...
Taking my new 2009 A's lineup (with Pennington rather than Croz at SS), I chose two separate paths...
1. THE OUTSOURCING PLAN: Forget Pennington; sign Rafael Furcal (353 OBP / 408 SLG); keep the rest of the lineup the same... ESTIMATED RUNS PER GAME with Furcal at SS: 5.18
2. THE PENNINGTON/DUNN PLAN: Name Pennington starting SS; sign Adam Dunn (380 OBP / 512 SLG); replace Daric Barton with Dunn (and send Barton to AAA to learn LF, so he can take over for Holliday in 2010); keep the rest of the lineup the same... ESTIMATED RUNS PER GAME with Dunn: 5.30
Now, if the price for Furcal and Dunn is similar (say, 4 yrs, $48M), doesn't it make a more sense to spend our money on Dunn than it does on Furcal? And, that's before we even get to Furcal's balky back... or the fact that Dunn's two years younger than Furcal. Forget Furcal (who doesn't help us as much as we might think). Forget Tejada (who doesn't get on base and has lost most of his power). And forget Hardy (who will cost too much).
Focus on internal solutions to the SS problem. If Pennington can just be a 340 OBP / 340 SLG, we're better off getting his on-base skills and glove into the lineup and signing a truly big bat (like Dunn) who will put a charge into the lineup...
So, this is my projected lineup for next season:
Sweeney - CF
Buck - RF
Holliday - LF
Dunn - 1B
Cust - DH
Suzuki - C
Chavez - 3B
Ellis - 2B
Pennington - SS
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My responses
1. How about using Petit instead of Pennington. I, for one, think he’s the better player
2. Projections don’t have much value for young players with short MLB track records (in our case, most of the lineup). I, for one, think Barton beats that projection.
3. I don’t see how you used defense here. The tool you linked to doesn’t consider it and you don’t describe the way you incorporate it here. Crosby may be a weak SS, but he’s a better hitter than Pennington.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 8, 2008 10:53 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
My responses
1. I’m fine with that. I liked Pennington because of the high OBP. Don’t know as much about Petit.
2. Projections aren’t as accurate for young players, but they still have value. And, projection systems have gotten much better at translating minor-league stats to major-league stats… As for Barton, I could see him beating that projection (349 OBP / 400 SLG) this year, but I could also see him falling short of that. In other words, I didn’t look at that projection and say: “That’s way off.” Barton’s power is more projection than reality at this point, so 349/400 doesn’t seem way off to me. Dunn, on the other hand, is basically a sure thing to put up 380 OBP / 510 SLG.
3. The Baseball Musings tool doesn’t factor in defense. As I mentioned in my post, from what I’ve read, Pennington is a plus-defender at SS. That may be wrong, but that’s Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus saying it, so it’s not just my personal opinion. I acknowledge that Croz is a good defensive SS, but his on-base skills are so bad (and getting worse), that he is no longer an option… As for defense at 1B, whatever advantage Barton has over Dunn (it may be fairly big) is more than mitigated by Dunn’s offensive superiority and the fact that 1B barely qualifies as a defensive position.
On 3
I agree that Pennington is a better defender than crosby. My question is how you factored it in to get such precise runs/game numbers.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
just guessing
so i could be way wrong, but I don’t think the adjustment he posted factored in defense at all. Basically, the projection says the lineup will be .05 runs/game better with Pennington instead of Crosby, using the same formula. The projections are therefore saying that Pennington will have a marginally better offensive season than Crosby.
and for what it's worth
I’m a big fan of adding Dunn. But I like HRs, don’t mind strikeouts and think Barton or Cunningham could use some time at AAA.
I agree with this for both Barton and Cunningham.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 9, 2008 7:31 AM PST up reply actions
Not really true about 1B defense
Barton is projected by CHONE at 10 runs (or, if you will, 0.06 runs per game…) better than Dunn defensively. Yes, Dunn is a better player; no, Dunn is not better enough to justify signing him to a major contract (unless it’s a ridiculous steal).
As for Pennington, it’s wildly optimistic. Marcel is useless for that kind of sample size, and James projections are generically over-optimistic for mediocre hitters. ZiPS pegs him at .309 OBP, .293 SLG, which is much more in line with what I expect out of him. That’s an unacceptable hitting line from any position— even for shortstops, it’s replacement level.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 8, 2008 11:48 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
The only reason I can see for not signing Dunn if it's feasible is that they think Holliday's
attainable for the long term. Otherwise why the heck not? The budget is there. .
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 9, 2008 7:35 AM PST up reply actions
Because he is expensive and redundant and cannot play defense.
Misuse of resources and playing time.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Dec 9, 2008 8:58 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Good stuff
P-Thomas:
Where did you find the CHONE projections for 2009? Also, does anyone know what The Hardball Times’s projection system is called?
I agree with you — Pennington is not a viable option at SS if his ZiPs projection (309 OBP / 293 SLG) is more accurate. That kind of bat simply cannot find a place in a MLB-caliber lineup.
That said, I still think our priorities should be (1) finding a veteran starter to plug into our rotation and (2) finding a big bat to play at 1B/DH, rather than an upgrade at SS, where the upgrades are marginal…
If anyone has a link to CHONE projections or The Harball Times’ projections, please post…
by Uncle Charlie on Dec 9, 2008 9:03 AM PST up reply actions
Thanks man
Appreciate it. Does CHONE do hitting statistics, or just defense? I’ve never really used their projections before.
by Uncle Charlie on Dec 9, 2008 10:02 AM PST up reply actions
He does hitters but I'm not sure they're out yet
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I'm a little surprised
about how rosey they are about Travis Buck, especially given his 2008 performance. I honestly think he’s capable of those numbers and possibly better, though.
"To this day and dating back 25 years, before every game he plays, Henderson stands completely naked in front of a full length locker room mirror and says, "Ricky’s the best," for several minutes."
by VORP is too nerdy on Dec 9, 2008 12:16 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Not this conversation again!
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
Another vote for Petit instead of Pennington
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on Dec 9, 2008 1:13 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Sure but the A's seem to like Pennington better for whatever reason. I'm bewildered too, but...
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 9, 2008 7:36 AM PST up reply actions
My guess
is that they’re trying to make something out of him, showing that he was worth the first-round draft pick.
Say something funny.
One would hope someone as smart as Beane would be smart enough
to recognize obvious logical fallacies like that…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
i think pennington's obp will dip
because pitchers are going to challenge him seeing that he is completely void of any power whatsoever, and therefore he won’t walk.
"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"
They're gonna Kendall him
They're called RUNS for a reason.
i may not want crosby, but i really wonder if either petit or pennington are a better option for 2008 only.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
Agree
that spending money on big bat is better than on Furcal. A’s need offense. If this team is going to suck again while developing I’d prefer my losses to be 7-5 games instead of 4-0. At least it would be watchable.
wtf are you agreeing with from my comment?
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
He agreed that it was, in fact, a comment.
99 MPH with as much control as a deflating balloon - CurveballKing on H-Rod
Or he might be a Ramones fan.
Ray: "How fun is it to be up here playing in the Big Leagues?"
Gio: "It's *SUPER* fun!!!"
+1
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on Dec 9, 2008 1:57 PM PST up reply actions
No
What numbers are you using for Pennington here? ZiPS projects Crosby .234/.296/.344 (a little worse than the numbers you used), Petit at .260/.305/.336, and Pennington at .227/.309/.293. That’s not an upgrade.
And on defense, I don’t believe Pennington is a good or even average defender at shortstop. Please cite where BP or BA said that.
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
Response
I was using an average of the Bill James / BIS numbers and the MARCEL numbers. I hadn’t seen the ZiPS projections yet, so I’ll have to factor those in too.
MARCEL appears to be a bit rosier on Pennington than the others. Based on the projections I’ve seen, Pennington’s bat doesn’t appear to be good enough to be an everyday SS.
As for Pennington’s defense, here is what I was citing:
Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7796 (see the comment at 12:43 pm)
Kevin Goldstein again (Baseball Prospectus): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6786 (see the comment under Pheonix Desert Dogs… “Trevor Plouffe (Twins) and Cliff Pennington (Athletics) were both first-round picks. Both are plus defenders, with Plouffe adding gap power, and Pennington showing a knack for drawing walks and stealing bases. Unfortunately, neither of them has hit for much of an average since signing. Scouts have both still walking that fine line between future starter and future utility player…”)
Kevin Goldstein again (Baseball Prospectus): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6238 (see the comment under High-A Stockton)… “Cliff Pennington was dreadful last year at Stockton (.203/.302/.277), belying his first-rounder status in the 2005 draft, but he’s doing much better this year (.266/.372/.396). Scouts see a much different player now that his hamstring issues are completely behind him…”)
Baseball America: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/majors/organization-reports/oakland-athletics/2008/266218.html (talking about how his torn hammy affected his play, but now he’s playing great defensively at SS)
by Uncle Charlie on Dec 9, 2008 10:32 AM PST up reply actions
Marcels
Marcel is, according to its author, a benchmark for other projection systems – if your system is not more accurate than Marcel, then it has something wrong with it. If you have one of those other projections for a player, averaging it with Marcel will give an answer that is likely to be less accurate.
All Marcel does is take past major league performance from the previous three years and regress to the mean of a league-average hitter, with a small adjustment for age. That’s a reasonable first approximation for players who have been in the majors for long enough.
But for players like Pennington with little or no major league track record, it will automatically project them as being very close to league average. Other projection systems (ZiPS, CHONE, PECOTA) will take minor league track record into account, and will be much more accurate for young players.
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
Word...
… that is good info. I never knew how MARCEL did its projections, but your explanation makes sense. Sounds like MARCEL is good for projecting veteran players (for whom performance is less volatile) and basically worthless for younger players. I think I’ll stick to ZiPS, CHONE, PECOTA, and Baseball HQ for younger players.
by Uncle Charlie on Dec 9, 2008 11:01 AM PST up reply actions
Sounds like MARCEL is good for projecting veteran players
MARCEL is not good for projecting anything, it’s a banchmark for other projection systems.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
Gotcha
MARCEL is a good for nothing piece of garbage. MARCEL should be taken out behind the woodshed and shot. Don’t use MARCEL. I shall not do it.
by Uncle Charlie on Dec 9, 2008 12:58 PM PST up reply actions
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