Josh's Meanderings: Barton's Value in 2009
by Josh Deletchi on Dec 5, 2008 2:58 PM PST
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PrintWhen deciding whether or not to sign/trade for Adam Dunn, Jason Giambi, Pat Burrell, or Nick Johnson, it's very important to asses the worth of the man they'll (mostly) be replacing, Daric Barton. If we expect Barton to hit .226 again, the decision becomes a no brainer-sign whoever you have to in order to upgrade the lineup. However, if Barton lives up to the potential he showed in the minors, where he hit .299/.410/.456, even Dunn won't be a significant upgrade.
Per Fangraphs we saw that Bill James (.331 wOBA) and Marcel the Monkey (.333 wOBA) have Barton pegged as roughly a league average hitter. Even more impressively, Marcel doesn't take into consideration Barton's impressive minor league numbers. (I'm not sure if Bill James does). Of course, those projections aren't very reliable, simply because of Barton's lack of major league playing time (including his 2007 callup, he has 607 PA).
Is there another way to look at Barton as a hitter? Let's try his comparables. Via Baseball Reference his comparables through age 22. Here's how his comparables hit in their age 23 season.
Wally Pipp: Barton's #1 comparable. Hopefully Chris Carter can fufill his end of the deal :) .262/.331/.417 in 1916. The main reason for Pipp's improvement was power. He jumped from 4 home runs in 1915 to 12 in 1916.
Derrek Lee: This didn't go so well. Lee had hit .233 in 1998, but had shown good plate discipline and power potential. However, he cratered in 1999, batting .206/.263/.326 in 70 games, and spending half the year in AAA. Lee rebounded in 2000, playing the whole year and posting in OPS+ of 124. He's been fine ever since.
Ed Stevens: A guy that broke into the majors in 1945 at a age 21, had a 'meh' year in 1946, came back in 1948 (age 23) to hit .254/.313/.396 and played his last major league game in 1950 at 25 years of age.
George Scott: kind of the reverse Derrek Lee. He was decent as a 22 year old rookie in 1966, and then exploded in 1967 to hit .303/.373/.465. He had a terrible 1968, but recovered to have a fine career. He wasn't really that similar of a hitter to Barton, though-much less patience.
Willie Crawford: .234/.313/.381 He struggled in his year 23 season (1970), but developed into a fine hitter who played RF and LF for some good Dodger teams.
Ed Konetchy: Another deadballer! In 1908, Konetchy had hit .248/.309/.354 as a 22 year old. That doesn't sound too impressive, but he was actually an above average hitter! The National League as a whole hit .239/.299/.306 that year. Konetchy would explode in 1909, hitting .302/.397/.425, and stay at that level for several years. A good defensive first baseman, Konetchy is actually a very good comparable to Barton.
Howie Schultz: WW2 really ruined baseball for a few years, didn't it? Schultz broke into MLB in 1943 as a 20 year old. He stuck around as a below average hitter for the next couple years. As a 23 year old, when the real ballplayers came home in 1946, Schultz hit .253/.298/.353. He played his last MLB game in 1948.
Watty Lee: A two way player who hit .256/.319/.366 as a 22 year old in 1902. He hit .208/.265/.277 the next year, which was bad even for the deadball era. He played his last game in 1904. Somewhere, he's smiling down on Brooks Kieschnick.
Reggie Smith: He was league average as a 22 year old, then hit .265/.342/.430 in the pitchers heaven of 1968 on his way to becoming one of the most underappreciated players of all time.
Keith Hernandez: He was bad in half a season at 21 (.250/.309/.362), then made the leap between 21+22, hitting .289/.376/.428 in 1976 at age 22 and .291/.379/.459 at age 23.
What does this list tell us? That, unless it's WW2 or 1902, you don't get to the majors and show plate discipline at 22 unless you're a good hitter. 7 of the 10 players on the list had good to very good careers, and the three that didn't were playing in leagues with wildly fluctuating talent pools (the AL in 1901-04 and WW2 years). They were the watered down competition Cy Young and Hal Newhouser feasted on.
To conclude these ramblings, Daric Barton has hit .243/.341/.388 over a full MLB season. He has hit .299 over his minor league career. A simple regression to his mean in BABIP (his BABIP was .324 in Sacramento in 2007-though he'll likely hit below that) would make Barton a good hitter, and combining that with the expected improvement from age 22 to age 23 makes me expect Barton will rebound strongly. How strongly? Given what we know of his minor league track record, I think he'll beat his Marcel-which has him at average-and be between 0 and +10 runs with the bat. If he's +5 ( Derek Jeter was about +2 at .300/.363/.408), then his defense (+4 according to Sean Smith's 2009 projections) makes him about one win above average before considering a positional adjustment.
As a comparison, how is Adam Dunn compared to the average player? Looking at his BB-Ref batting runs (same as I used for Jeter), since 2004 he's been +41, +36, +13, +30, +26. I think +25 is reasonable. The defensive projection I used for Barton has Dunn at -6 at 1B (his outfield numbers are Custian). Not worrying about positional adjustment, since we're comparing two players at the same position, 'my' projections have Dunn roughly 10 runs, or one win, better than Barton for 2009. If you tihnk Barton is an average hitter, then Dunn's 15 runs ahead. If you think Barton will hit .226 again, sign Dunn.
23 year old players with the plate discipline and minor league track record of Barton don't come around every day. When they do, they are usually good players even if they struggle at first, as Barton's comparables show. Signing Dunn would help the A's in 2009, but I think the upgrade would be less than expected.
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I don't see how he's +25 unless you're doing some league and park adjustment or something
he’s had 1 season below +26 in his last 5 according to your list. And even then I don’t think Dunn is the type to suffer too much in this park, his HR are pretty monstrous generally.
Not that I’m advocating signing Dunn, though if the cost is something silly like 3/36 that I’ve seen going around recently than by all means please sign him.
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otoh, he's averaged +23 over the last 3 years
and he’s moving to a tougher league. I think it’s unlikely that he’ll collapse, or that he’ll be as good as he was in 04-05. +25 seemed like a good, if unscientific, midway point.
by Josh Deletchi on Dec 5, 2008 3:35 PM PST up reply actions
You don't think moving from Cincinnati to Oakland would do much to his numbers? Really?
by thejd44 on Dec 7, 2008 9:15 AM PST up reply actions
It'll knock a few points off his already fringey batting average... probably won't do much to his power
I’d expect him to basically hit just like Cust, except with about 5 extra home runs.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Nice writeup
I expect Barton to have a bounce-back year. Something like .270/.380/.400 seems perfectly reasonable.
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Dec 5, 2008 4:16 PM PST reply actions
The BBRef comparables list
is a fun toy, nothing more. Look up the criteria it uses. Besides being entirely completely arbitrary, there’s no park adjustment.
Also, is there any reason you mention Jeter? Barton and Jeter play 2 positions at
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
They fail to adjust for run environment at all,
which even takes a lot of the fun out of the toy part.
For some reason I tend to think of Barton as a younger, less powerful Dan Johnson
They both had a really good BB/K ratio, high BA, and therefore good OBP. Of course, I think the main difference was DJ showed more power in the minors and was also a lot older than Barton at the time of his MLB callup. I really think that DJ would be an above average hitter if given another year. He actually had two decent seasons and one bad one. On that same note, I think that Barton will probably be better as well.
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
Wasn't he the starting 1B in 2005?
How much more of a chance should he get?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 5, 2008 7:27 PM PST up reply actions
by that line of thinking
wasn’t Barton the starting 1b in 2008? i think that DJ shoulda gotten one more year….of course, if you believe that Barton won’t be good, then my argument is moot
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 5, 2008 7:28 PM PST up reply actions
ya but he was blinded by sunscreen!
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 5, 2008 7:35 PM PST up reply actions
Except in AAA where he saw the ball just fine
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 5, 2008 7:46 PM PST up reply actions
Different sun
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
tag-team QOTM
starting at DLJ’s sunscreen quote
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
i can see Nico's got my back
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 5, 2008 8:39 PM PST up reply actions
Pffffft {gak}
I hate it when fur gets in between your teeth.
OK, I kind of like it.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
T...M....I
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 5, 2008 8:53 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah and he was pretty good.
He’s had one bad year. He was only given one AB in oakland in 2008. That to me is not giving him a chance.
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
Dan Johnson's upside is Scott Hatteberg
Daric Barton’s upside is John Olerud.
by thejd44 on Dec 7, 2008 9:17 AM PST up reply actions
DJ hits more homers
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 7, 2008 9:46 AM PST up reply actions
The reason I wouldn't mind signing Dunn for a few years
is that Holliday will cost a fortune and some team like the Red Sox or Yankees could very well outbid the A’s. If Barton played at AAA next year, he could return to the mix in 2010 when Holliday leaves and Dunn/Cust fill his spot out in LF.
Holliday is going to cost more than Dunn obviously
he’s also a better player. Even if you put them at the same level with the bat, because you are concerned about Holliday’s road splits, Holliday has a significant edge over Dunn in the field and on the bases.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Welcome to the front page!
It’s not like the front-pagers have exactly been en fuego the past 48 hours.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
'it's the big time, kid'
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 5, 2008 7:08 PM PST up reply actions
I'd prefer food instead
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 5, 2008 7:22 PM PST up reply actions
You want a poster to be named food?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 5, 2008 7:27 PM PST up reply actions
that or possibly McLovin
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 5, 2008 7:29 PM PST up reply actions
We have McFood - doesn't that suffice but twice?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
or its only half as good....
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 5, 2008 7:35 PM PST up reply actions
And new guy dominates AN's "talent"
This is either exciting or depressing…
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Depressing for me
I’ve never had a diary promoted from the ranks! :-(
The monster at the end of this blog.
Sorry - I would have promoted your last one,
but at the time the front page hadn’t been stagnant for 2 days so I wasn’t especially looking to promote one. Timing is everything. That and a good bleat.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I like this post.
Don’t know who the hell Josh is, but that makes it kind of exciting. It’s like an AN key party.
Ray: "How fun is it to be up here playing in the Big Leagues?"
Gio: "It's *SUPER* fun!!!"
A key party? But we're A's fans--we don't swing unless we have to
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
I really like this write-up.
I’m not sure about the comparables. Having multiple dead ball comparables can’t be a good thing.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
It's kind of disconcerting that most of the comps
are players I’ve never heard of, or are dead, or both.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'm right here.
You don’t have to shout.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Nico should be whipped for missing that one
Problem is, he’d enjoy it.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Perfect timing -
I can’t find my pants anyway.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
But you know where the A's are.
In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!
by DMOAS on Dec 5, 2008 8:16 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
another tag-team QOTM
the saddest of possible words, grover to Nico to DMOAS
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
Not the first time I've been in the middle of three,
with fur on one side and someone I’ve never met on the other.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
insert Ed McMahon "whoaaaa" here
and a rimshot (please don’t take that one any further…)
by rollierollieOxenfree on Dec 5, 2008 9:59 PM PST up reply actions
I like flipgatey3 for QOTM Nomination OTM or QOTMNOTM!
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 5, 2008 10:15 PM PST up reply actions
computers play baseball?
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 5, 2008 7:40 PM PST up reply actions
Sure - Mac might even get into the Hall of Fame
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Barton would be okay if he was hitting 8th in the lineup for another year
I’d rather have Holliday and Barton than Dunn and some guy in Left Field
They're called RUNS for a reason.
Ed Konetchy: Another deadballer! In 1908, Konetchy had hit .248/.309/.354 as a 22 year old. That doesn’t sound too impressive, but he was actually an above average hitter! The National League as a whole hit .239/.299/.306 that year.
Someone explain to me how this game became the national pastime, again?
I can think of a lot of things I’d rather watch than that kind of offense. Sewing circles, for instance.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Ah, but then you know what you're missing
And you don’t get to sit and watch games in the outfield.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I have to think beer and gambling helped a lot.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 6, 2008 3:25 AM PST up reply actions
Hitters also took fewer pitches
so games went by faster, I would think.
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
Well, basketball didn't exist (not in any real, organized way)
And football was on the verge of being banned because everybody was dying on the field. Soccer was too European.
The answer: There really wasn’t any other option.
by thejd44 on Dec 7, 2008 9:21 AM PST up reply actions
I didn't expect to see this on this front page
when I visited AN this morning. Gee whiz golly gee, but it’s mighty exciting!
Congrats dude!
And post again. This was a good one.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 6, 2008 6:08 AM PST up reply actions
Excellent analysis.
I am 100% behind playing Barton 162 games at first next year, instead of wasting money on blocking him with Burrell or Dunn.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on Dec 6, 2008 12:27 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
yeah but what if, instead, he plays 162 games at third in Sacramento and does well?
Then having Dunn doesn’t block him, and he’ll only be 24 in the 2010 season.
Playing 162 games in Sacramento would be a feat
since the season is only 148 games long.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Not if the Cats go all the way!
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 6, 2008 9:15 PM PST up reply actions
That would be 159 games if they played every possible postseason game...
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
But playing 3b gets a +3 game positional adjustment
Hope is still alive!
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Send him to Stockton on off days to maximize PAs ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
It's a big gamble.
If Barton can’t hack third, he remains blocked. Plus, Carter and Doolittle still need a position. Unless Dunn is willing to do a two-year deal, which I doubt in the extreme, I can’t see him being worth it.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
I doubt the Dunn 2 year thing as well.
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
If Barton can't hack third, *then* he becomes a guy the team can look to trade.
If he plays his age 23 season as a 3B in Sacramento and doesn’t work out, he’s still tradeable as a 1B.
I don't understand that last clause at all
Either Burrell or Dunn is a lock to vastly outproduce Barton at the plate, even if Barton returns to form; and while Barton has apparently blossomed into an excellent fielding 1B and the other two are massive lead gloves, it’s only 1B. Plus, as mikev said, Barton can be tried at 3B in Sacto and he’ll only be 23—he’s potentially repositionable and young and with lots of eligibility to boot. And even if he remains at 1B and starts hitting again, he develops value as a possible trading chip.
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
Well, that depends what you mean by returning to form ...
if he hits like he did in the fall of 07, he’d be their equivalent with the bat and vastly superior with the glove, probably worth an extra 10-15 runs over a full season …
if he hits like a league average 1b, his glove would mostly cancel out the difference in offensive production …
“Only 1b” sure, it’s relatively easy, but the 1b makes the most plays of anyone in the field …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
so you're taking the Crosby's-one-good-month definition of "return to form"?
Also, yes, I agree that Staplehead generally looked very good in the field this year — but that could be as anomalous as his late-07 offensive surge. (Not likely, just splitting hairs.)
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
Well, he's only shown two kinds of form to this point ...
Barton of Sept 07/08 (really, really good)
and Barton in between … (really, really not good)
Truthfully, it would be a misnomer to call the second option I offered a “return to form” since he’s never done it …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Good post
I disagree on a few things but I’ve got other things on my plate. Welcome to the Front Page.
The monster at the end of this blog.
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