This starts with a simple question: Can the A’s afford to keep Matt Holliday beyond 2009?

What follows is a detailed breakdown of the financial commitments and organizational depth of the Oakland A’s over the next 5 years. This involves a bit of educated guesswork in places but wherever dollar figures are involved my rule o’ thumb was to budget high and hope to spend less. And just in case I’ve bid low on anyone I round up on the overall budget prior to adding Holliday’s potential dollar figure. For the purpose of this exercise I’m placing Holliday’s contract at 6 years/$135 million starting in 2010. The money is evenly spread out over the length of the contract at $22.5 million annual. I don’t think that is what it’ll take to actually sign Holliday but again, I’m budgeting high and hoping to spend less.

I’ve also tried to factor the A’s budget based on current revenues and have not factored in a potential bump due to a new stadium or local TV contract. In 2007 the A’s spent between $83-85 million on player salaries and signing bonuses for their entire organization, I am basing my 2009-2013 projections on the high end of that figure so all of the following is based on an $85 million budget. Because of the economic downturn and the desire to see the A’s continue to invest in amateur talent both in the draft and abroad I’ve set a soft ceiling on the big league payroll at $75 million. I can go beyond that figure but I better have a damn good reason for cutting into my amateur budget.

One writer’s quirk you should be aware of. For various reasons I’ve decided that the yearly roster breakdowns will be based on who I think will be on the Opening Day roster. Take Aaron Cunningham for example. He has no dollar figure assigned to him in 2009 even though it is likely he’ll spend time in Oakland during the year. I believe he’ll spend the first couple months of the 2009 season playing full time in AAA, therefore he doesn’t factor into that year’s budget. I am expecting him to fill a role on the 2010 Opening Day roster and have essentially started counting his service time then. A player’s actual service time plays a big part in this breakdown. As you’ll see in 2010 the various starts and stops in the careers of certain players could make them eligible for arbitration under Super-2 status instead of after the normal 3 years.

Furthermore, take care when looking at the names in the Excel sheet I’m (hopefully) including. An italicized name is a player that won’t be on the 2009 opening Day roster but will eventually make the club. Keep in mind that the particular names aren’t meant as absolutes, I don’t know with complete certainty which prospects will blossom and which will bust. So when I pencil Anderson into the 2010 roster what I really mean is that 1 of the A’s many SP prospects will be ready for the big league rotation in 2010. I’m just using the most attractive name because it makes the picture look prettier.

Another thing to keep in mind is the CBA. The current deal runs through 2011 and it sets the league minimum salary at $400 K in 2009 and 2010, with 2011 seeing a cost of living adjustment that can’t drop below $400 K but will probably end up higher than the current figure. I’m guessing the 2011 minimum salary to be $410 K. I don’t know what will happen when the current CBA expires but I doubt it will change the financial structure so dramatically that any contracts teams carry into the new deal will be a problem.

2009

We start with 2009 because really, where else could we begin? Beane’s surprising trade for Matt Holliday actually got ESPN to notice the team for almost a full news cycle and that in itself is a major accomplishment. The numbers pretty much speak for themselves: I have Crosby listed with a $3.25 million price tag because I anticipate the A’s trading him and eating that much of his contract in order to land a decent prospect. As for Furcal, I’m taking a leap of faith that the A’s will land him. I know some people might think that he could be had for less than $12 million annual but I disagree. Furcal’s previous contract paid him 9/13/13 million with a $4 million kicker in January ’09, an average of $13 million a season. So $12 million a year is already a cut from his previous contract. We’ve seen his potential suitors (and the A’s competition) start to go in other directions and that is in large part because no one has been willing to go beyond a 3 year deal. I think the weakening market will allow the A’s to sign Furcal to a 3 year guarantee with an optional/vesting 4th year. The 2012 buy-out of $3 million allows Furcal to save face by boosting the 3 year average to $13 million… equal to his previous contract with the Dodgers. The projected payroll with Furcal is approximately $61 million, which means there’s still sufficient room to make another move or two to better the roster in 2009. There are several options that we could discuss, but after losing Smith’s 190+ IP I would hope that the A’s could sign/trade for a veteran arm to provide stability in the rotation.

Right now it appears that the top name on the list of possible targets is Randy Johnson. The Big Unit is 5 wins away from 300 (which means free media exposure as he closes in on the milestone, media exposure which could lead to an attendance boost and increased merchandise sells) and he pitched 184 innings last year, that’s more big league innings than any other pitcher on the current roster. (Dana Eveland threw 189 innings between the majors and AAA.) Johnson walked 44 and struck out 173 in 30 starts and his average fastball velocity was a shade less than 91 MPH so it looks like he’s got enough left in the tank for one more year. There is some concern about switching from the NL to the AL but that should be mitigated by pitching his home games in the Coliseum instead of the second best hitter’s park in the NL. Johnson is probably looking for a 1 year deal somewhere between $6-8 million. I’m basing that on the $10.5 million he made in 2008 and the $4 million he’s owed by Arizona as part of his original signing bonus. Once again I’ll budget high and call it a 1 year/$ 8 million deal. That put’s the A’s 2009 projected payroll at $69 million.

You’ll notice that I didn’t put Johnson’s name and salary on the spreadsheet. I figured I was already taking a chance by adding Furcal and I didn’t see the point in manipulating the roster over pure speculation. If Johnson’s agent is to be believed that are just under a dozen teams that have asked about the future Hall of Famer. If the A’s did land Johnson either Braden or Gio would get bumped from the rotation. If it’s Braden he probably ends up in the unnamed RP slot, serving as the 2nd lefty and long reliever. If Gio gets bumped I imagine he’ll go down to pitch in Sacramento’s rotation. The two bench spots will probably contain some combination of Joe Dillon, Jeff Baisley, Gregorio Petit, Cliff Pennington and Jack Hannahan. Their Spring Training performances plus Eric Chavez’s health will go a long way to deciding those spots.

There is another player that I haven’t mentioned, a free agent who could come into play even after all these other moves take place. The market for Adam Dunn has withered on the vine as it were and there are whispers that he might not make more than the $13 million he made last year. In fact, I saw one article talk about a 3 year/$36 million contract. I’m not sure how legit those numbers are, but let’s assume for the moment that they’re in the ballpark. I propose a 3 year/$36 million deal with an optional 4th year at $12 million or a $3 million buy-out OR a player opt-out with no cash. That way Dunn would be able to re-enter a revitalized FA market after his age 31 season and allow him to cash in for a bigger contract. If the A’s exercise the buy-out Dunn will have made an average of $13 million a year over the length of his stay in Oakland, the exact same figure he made in 2008. I really believe that face saving gesture adds incentive to sign with the A’s. Stick Dunn a 1B to limit the damage his glove would do and send Barton back to AAA to work on his 3B skills. If Travis Buck gets hurt or can’t hit then option 2 would be to send him down and move Dunn to LF, sending Holliday to RF and Barton back to 1B. We really want Buck healthy and productive in 2009!

Adding Dunn would boost the 2009 payroll to approximately $82 million. Now, keep in mind I’ve padded every salary that doesn’t have a specific number listed in Cots database. I could easily be a couple million over the actual hard figure and maybe we’ll get lucky and the A’s will be able to get someone to take all of Crosby’s salary, but either way we are under the original $85 million budget I allowed for myself. Remember, that $85 million is intended to cover both the big league payroll AND signing bonuses for the draft and the international market so I have severally hindered the A’s ability to sign amateur talent in 2009. There should be enough cash left over to pay slot in the draft but I’m not sure how much will be available to go over-slot. No way would there be enough to sign another Inoa, over even another Brett Hunter. Still, I'd like to see someone put together a projected W/L record for this roster!

2010

I have deliberately left Holliday’s roster spot open, because we still haven’t determined if the A’s can afford to keep him beyond 2009. For the purpose of this discussion I’ve replaced Duke with Brett Anderson, who actually made his big league debut at the end of 2009, thus the slight bump pay bump above league minimum. I’ve also decided that Randy Johnson bumped Dallas Braden from the 2009 rotation while Gio was busy establishing himself as the A’s #5 SP. (In case you were wondering, my 2009 rotation went Duke/Johnson/Eveland/Gallagher/Gonzalez.) I’m going to slip Braden back into the rotation but you could swap him with one of the A’s several upper level pitching prospects. There’s almost no difference in the financial cost between Braden and a pure rookie, maybe $20 K at most.

Rajai Davis, Dana Eveland, Joey Devine and Andrew Brown could all qualify for Super-2 arbitration in 2010. Since I’m budgeting high, I’m going to assume that all 4 players will be arbitration eligible. As I show in the spreadsheet, I think Davis and Brown can be replaced by more cost efficient players who have the potential to be even more effective performers. Eveland could emerge as a valuable mid-rotation SP and I’m figuring on Devine winning the Closer job in 2009, his Save total will boost his arby salary. $3 million for each would not be setting a new record for first time arbitration eligible players but the figures would be in the upper tier for their respective categories. What the Hell, we might as well figure as if these guys are going to be good in 2009!

So assuming I’m close with my arbitration figures the 2010 budget sits at approximately $47.25 million. That’s without Dunn and without Holliday. Adding Dunn raises the figure to $59 million and assuming a $22.5 million annual salary for Holliday (remember, we’re budgeting high and hoping to spend less) that would put the A’s 2010 player payroll at $81.5 million. We are once again under the $85 million hard cap but have limited the A’s ability to add amateur talent.

2011

This is the key year in determining whether or not the A’s can afford Holliday beyond 2009. I’ve kept Barton on the spreadsheet because I refuse to jinx things by adding Dunn’s name. As things stand now the A’s have 9 players on the current roster that’ll be arbitration eligible in 2011 if Beane doesn’t sign them to long term deals earlier in their careers. The numbers in parenthesis represent a rough estimate of what their arbitration salaries could be. Chavez and Ellis both have team options for 2011 and there continued presence on the roster will be determined by a combination of their performance from 2009-2010 and the development of certain prospects, most notably (and in this case specifically) Adrian Cardenas. It would help things considerably if Cardenas would live up to his hype and be ready to replace either of the A’s infield stalwarts by 2011.

I’ve already decided that Chris Schroder isn’t going to get arbitration; I’ve replaced him with the concept of Sam Demel. Santiago Casilla is a tougher call. If the A’s have more bullpen arms ready on the farm then I’m comfortable with shipping him off elsewhere rather than paying him $1.5 million, but since I don’t want to rely so heavily on prospect projections this far out I’m going to hold onto Casilla for now. (I’m very confident the A’s can find 1 cheap bullpen arm for 2011, I’m not as certain about them finding 2 bullpen arms in the same timeframe.) I’ve also added Trevor Cahill to the rotation. He’ll either take the place of Braden or he’ll replace Eveland if his cost begins to exceed his production. Or if I need the $5 million to pay for Holliday!

The 2011 payroll, based on the current roster (i.e. no Dunn or Holliday) sits at approximately $71 million. That’s including roughly $500 K for my back-up Catcher, whoever that may be. If Dunn gets signed I’ve traded Barton after he failed to convert to 3B during the 2009 season. That kicks in an extra $8.5 million into the kitty, meaning the payroll sans Holliday sits at $79.5 million. Holliday’s $22.5 million annual would bump that to $102 million and we still haven’t signed a draft pick. Does this kill the dream to keep Holliday?

Not exactly.

There are several options to shoehorn this under budget. The first way is the A’s could up their payroll! Aside from that, the A’s have options. Chris Carter or Sean Doolittle could/should be ready by 2011. Let’s assume its Doolittle for now. Trade Cust, move Dunn to DH and lave the rookie play 1B. If Cardenas is for real he could be ready to replace Ellis. Those two moves knock $14 million off the 2011 payroll. If Cardenas converts to 3B he could let the A’s buy-out Chavez’s last year for $9 million in savings. The A’s can save $1.5 million if they produce two bullpen arms in 2011 and trade Casilla. Like I mentioned before, Cahill could replace Eveland and save the A’s $5 million. It’s not so much that I’m making assumptions in 2011 as I’m recognizing available options.

2012

Things have settled down again in 2012. Chavez and Ellis are almost certainly off the books and have moved on to not so green & gold pastures while Furcal and Dunn are in an option year… theoretically! The A’s would have between 10-12 arbitration eligible cases that would probably cost up to $40 million. Dunn, Furcal and Holliday would cost $46.5. Figure another $3.5-4 million to round out the rest of the roster and you’re looking at a round number $90 million payroll. That figure could be easily trimmed by $5-10 million or the owners could have raised the overall budget after 4 years!

Conclusion

Can the A’s afford to keep Matt Holliday beyond the 2009 season? The answer appears to be “Yes”. The A’s farm system would need to produce 2-3 bullpen arms, 2 SP, 1 starting caliber 2B/3B, 1 1B/DH and 1 4th outfielder over the next 3 years for my proposal to work. Let me put it this way… if the A’s can’t produce that amount of homegrown talent within the allotted time then things have gone seriously wrong within the organization and the team’s screwed regardless of Matt Holliday’s presence. Adding Dunn to the equation adds protection to the line-up should Furcal’s back turn to clay; the A’s would be able to carry a light hitting replacement SS as long as Dunn, Holliday and Cust were pounding the snot out of the ball. The biggest downside is the A’s would have cut their amateur spending to roughly half of what they spent this last year.

Will all this happen? I don’t know.

The cash and young talent necessary to supplement a significant investment like Holliday seem to be available. I don't think there's a better, available player to invest that kind of money in than Matt Holliday. I'd like to see this happen, how about you AN?