The Forgotten Division - Your AL Central
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 10:42 AM PST
77 comments
Until someone makes another move, I'm tired of talking about the AL West and you can't turn on ESPN without hearing about the AL East. Or so I've heard from people who actually turn on ESPN.
Remember this time last year, when the Tigers and Indians were going to be battling it out for the AL Central crown? How in hindsight, it was clear they weren't but so few of us saw things as they really would be, with the Tigers starting out hopeless only to improve to mediocrity and the Indians starting out bad only to improve to so-so, while the White Sox and Twins out played expectations and easily out played Detroit and Cleveland.
So let's get it right this time. We don't know who will be surprisingly injured or who might get old overnight, part of the unpredictability that makes baseball so wonderful. Ly aggravating. So no excuses. You know how old people are, you know how injury prone they are. You know who can hit, who can pitch, who can field.
Don't forget the Royals, as they're in the division too and their darkest years may be behind them. Five teams, five spots. Who will be at top, who will be at the bottom, and which runners-up will be in the race down to the end? And how many wins will it take to win the AL Central anyway? Good luck, and no taksies-backsies because you're writing in "pen".
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Ah, the good ole days...
and the Tiger juggernaut….that amounted to mostly naught. Where is Gary Sheffield these days?
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on Dec 30, 2008 10:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
"Tiggernaut"?
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Dec 30, 2008 11:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Now a Gordian knot.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on Dec 30, 2008 11:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
and Howe!
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Dec 30, 2008 1:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Twins
and 93 wins will take the division. White Sox will be last in the division. Royals will battle themselves to stay above .500, but will be 5-7 games under. Tigers and Indians have similar records, but Indians come in 2nd, at around 88-90 wins…
by stranahanahan on Dec 30, 2008 10:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Indians -- they're good in alternate years. I like their moves -- Wood, Smith, Valbuena
Victor returns. LaPorta in for Francisco. Carmona rebounds.
Twins with Liriano coming back 2nd. White Sox fall back a bit without Vazquez (I know I know) and Floyd regressing. Konerko and Thome are a year older. AJ too. Jenks seems ready for a collapse. Also Quentin’s good, but wow!
The Tigers aren’t as bad as last year, but their pitching after Verlander is terrible. Bonderman’s return should help a little, but Galarraga isn’t as good as 2008.
I gotta pick the Royals last. They’re still a ways away from their glory days of Hosmer, Moustakas, Butler and Gordon. Aviles should regress. Jacobs will be bad. They should try Soria as a starter, but probably won’t.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 11:18 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Plus, the Indians will win the Central with their final upgrade,
when they deal Jhonny Peralta to Oakland for Mazzaro and Buck, helping the A’s to take the AL West with Peralta at SS (ready to shift over to 3B if Chavy breaks), Garret Anderson spelling Cunningham in the OF, and Monkeyball following the Nationals because they didn’t sign Garret!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 11:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hee hee.
Unfortunately with Choo, Francisco and LaPorta they don’t need Buck badly enough to start Andy Marte at 3B. Too bad.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 11:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno about that deal
But I think that going forward Buck > Peralta. And he’s cheaper. I think it’s an overpay.
by thejd44 on Dec 30, 2008 1:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Even better!
Mazzaro and Baisley was my other thought.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 1:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't Mazzaro the next Fausto Carmona?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 2:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
a regressed aviles is still better than a tony pena jr., or whatever slop they gave 225 AB's to.
Aviles BABIP was high, but he’s hit well in the minors, so my guess is that he’ll be a .280 hitter with 10ish HR’s and a .340 OBP. If he actually does that, that’s a pretty decent SS if you ask me.
I really don’t think the Royals have a shot at winning the division unless EVERYTHING breaks exactly right for them (see the BtB post), but I do think they have a realistic shot of getting to .500 and not being last in the division.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 30, 2008 1:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Which makes one wonder - could Aviles be as good a SS target
as Furcal was. Sure, you’re buying high but at least you’re not buying injured. Aviles projects to be an average defensive SS and above average hitting SS, correct?
What would the Royals require in return? Maybe Mazzaro (I’ve traded him about 17 times now), and the dazzlingly amazing H-Rod, plus Petit or Pennington? Or might Buck or Cunningham be involved? Is there a win-win deal to be made here?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 2:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Gio and Rodriguez?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 2:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That seems reasonable on the surface
And while many will scream “Nooooo – Aviles had one ‘career year’ and you want to give up talent for a guy who at 29 was unwanted by everyone!!!!” I reply, “Crosby.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 2:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Crosby is 29 and unwanted by everyone.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 2:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No, there's BobbyCrosbysGirl
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 2:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah the love of a good woman....
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 2:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
with Dayton Moore at the helm
and in light of that Mike Jacobs deal, I’m not so sure that Moore wouldn’t at least consider Crosby in a return offer. I don’t mean that he’s the center piece, or even a positive piece at all, just that he might take him on (I mean, come on, they played Tony Pena Jr. at short last year, and at one time employed the infamous Angel Beroa). I’m thinking that they’d love to get their hands on some pitching prospects and could use BoCro as the replacement SS, and maybe something along the lines of Mazzaro, BoCro, +1 more middling talent for Aviles could get it done.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 30, 2008 4:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd be interested on people's takes on what it would take
for the A’s to land Aviles in a win-win deal. Folks, your best proposals? I’ll go with Mazzaro, Petit or Pennington (their choice), and Outman.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 5:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Way, way too much
Aviles is the next Jeff Keppinger.
I’d give one mid-level prospect for him— a B- or C+ guy. That’s it.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 30, 2008 5:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well he's not likely to be worth 44.1 RAR (Fangraphs) again
but he sure ain’t chopped liver, either. Maybe three people are too much, but maybe not. I would definitely consider a Mazzaro/BoCro Aviles swap for sure.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 30, 2008 5:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with DyeLongJustice -
My proposal is too generous, but one mid-level prospect for someone who has proven, if nothing else, that he can have one great major league season? C’mon. He’s worth more than that. It’s hard to imagine Aviles not being an upgrade, in 2009, from Crosby – with more years of contract control if he plays well enough to stay.
Given the supply and demand of SSs right now and how good Aviles was last year, he can regress and still be valuable. He’s worth a good prospect, minimally, whether it’s Mazzaro or Simmons. And it seems to me as if swapping a non C/A starter for Aviles is a good deal for Oakland. I don’t know if the Royals would swap Aviles for Simmons straight up, but I sure would.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 5:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Everything about Aviles's track record says this is a complete fluke
Long, mediocre minor league experience? Check.
Lack of secondary hitting skills? Check.
Inflated, otherwise unexplainable BABIP? Check.
Questionable defense/team lacks confidence in ability? Check, check, check.
He’s a flash in the pan. You’ll thank me next year when he’s hitting .280/.320/.380 with below average defense.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 30, 2008 9:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not if we have Crosby.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 9:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
For the record, I agree he's probably a flash in the pan
but I also think he may be more of a “Jeff Tam” type of flash in the pan who has a total of 2-3 good years before diving off a cliff into obscurity.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 9:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That line's pretty good. If he can manage a .700 OPS in Oakland and
defend like he did last year, he’s way better than Crosby.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 9:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I also don't see why one would predict
a .100 point drop in slugging pct. I looked up his minor league stats and while they were a bit up and down, mostly his slugging pct has suggested that whatever he hits it will come with good 2B/HR pop.
I totally agree that Aviles’ batting average will take a dive next year, but I would predict a line more like .280/.340/.420 with average defense. And I’d take that any day of the week – and I’d deal Simmons to get it.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 9:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Me too. Now to get Dayton on board....
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 10:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He has shown no inclination whatsoever to draw that many walks
He has atrocious plate discipline.
Someone explain to me how he’s any better than Clint Barmes. (Apart from costing more because he just had a lucksack season, of course.)
Just to put this on a grounded footing here, his CHONE projection next year is .280/.317/.425. Park adjust that to Oakland and you’re probably looking at an OPS in the .710 range, maybe worse. Since I think Crosby is a better defender, you’re looking at a difference of a win, maybe 1.5 between them. Damned if I’m giving Simmons up for that.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 30, 2008 10:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i think aviles would be a 1.5-2 win upgrade on crosby
assuming his defense holds. i’d say thats kinda worth it to kick the tires on.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 30, 2008 9:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Options don't exactly abound
Furcal’s a way better player, but is Aviles a way bigger risk at $400K on a year-to-year deal than Furcal would have been at $36-$40million on a four-year deal?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 9:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Aviles of 2008 was a 3.3 win upgrade on Crosby according to the
new awesome Fangraphs chart. A regression to 2 WAC is pretty safe.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 10:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The White Sox also don't have a center fielder
Or a second baseman. Or, if Fields isn’t good, a third baseman.
And they have Dotel and Linebrink for the foreseeable future.
by thejd44 on Dec 30, 2008 1:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Come now....Alexei is a CF and a 2B....and a 3B.
They also do have Thornton.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 2:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thornton is kind of a stud
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 2:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Crosby is kinda of a duts
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 30, 2008 5:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thornton is good
But they have Jenks, who has gone from a 98 mph fastball to a 92-93 mph fastball (and he doesn’t strike guys out anymore), and Dotel and Linebrink under long-term deals. They coul dbe in some trouble if those guys regress as it appears they will.
by thejd44 on Dec 31, 2008 12:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The first place team will have 87 wins.
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
by ChadGod on Dec 30, 2008 11:38 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
They probably should but the Indians will get 91 due to strength of schedule.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 11:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A healthy Fausto Carmona should be terrifying for everybody in that division
But whatever everybody predicts the Twins to do, you should probably add 10 or 15 wins to that total. They’re not a scrappy team. They a pretty goddamn good team.
by NateHST on Dec 30, 2008 11:47 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yikes. stranahanahan picked them to win 93....so that's 108!
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 12:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Royals are moving into a kind of grey area.
“How grey?”
“Charcoal.”
-Fletch
by Svidrigailov on Dec 30, 2008 11:52 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
twins will fall back as they won't have that rediculous BA w/ risp
White Sox will fall a bit back with the loss of some players, but not too far back as Konerko will bounce back after a season with an extremely unlucky babip. Its possibly for the Tigers to pull of what the White Sox just did, if their pitching pitches like it used to, but i’ll believe it when i see it. Royals were still the worst in the division last year despite their better record than the tigers. I see the Indians as having the best team on paper.
Indians
White Sox
Twins
Tigers
Royals
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
by Cheezombie on Dec 30, 2008 12:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
oh, indians 91 wins
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
by Cheezombie on Dec 30, 2008 12:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My predictions come Thursday.
They include me and xbhaskarx laughing over old times.
I'm here to talk about the past.
by 67MARQUEZ on Dec 30, 2008 12:35 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
but ... isn't this itself a prediction?
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Dec 30, 2008 12:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
excellent point
I could very well be too hungover to type come Thursday.
(That only counts as a half-prediction, right?)
I'm here to talk about the past.
by 67MARQUEZ on Dec 30, 2008 1:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Saying you will be too hungover on New Year's day
is a prediction in the same way that saying the sun will rise in the east that day is a prediction.
"Camelot sure fell apart, didn't it?"-Steve McCatty
by 5Aces on Dec 30, 2008 1:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So I’m not really 100% on predictions. Damn.
I'm here to talk about the past.
by 67MARQUEZ on Dec 30, 2008 2:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Off the wall prediction:
Because the Rays and the Red Sox STILL put together better seasons than New York, Bud Selig elects to award the AL Central crown to the 91-win, 3rd place Yankees.
by mikev on Dec 30, 2008 12:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I propose moving the Yankees to the Central permanently and the Tigers to the East.
Just to break up the Yankee – Red Sox thing.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 12:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
ESPN would die
I'm here to talk about the past.
by 67MARQUEZ on Dec 30, 2008 1:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ha Ha Ha....So true!
+100
"RIP: UserID: 553"
by Masaryk on Dec 30, 2008 1:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thankyou Thankyou Thankyou Nico
for giving me a new topic to think about. Anywho, my predictions:
White Sox
Indians
Nico
Twins
Royals
A bag of Doritos
Tigers
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 30, 2008 1:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I'll take it
I only finish 3rd, but I still finish ahead of a bag of Doritos.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 2:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but
what flavor Doritos?
I mean, I think you’re ahead of the standard Nacho Cheese and Cool Ranch, but those new Buffalo Flavored ones…I mean, I like you and all, but…
I see a deranged rabbit, on fire, cowering away from a vagina. I await the results of the Rorschaschererer. -Nico
by Leopold Bloom on Dec 30, 2008 3:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I've tasted buffalo, and believe me
it’s nothing to write home about. Very “woolly”.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 4:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I prefer the Schenectady Flavored Doritos
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Dec 30, 2008 5:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I prefer the alternate reality flavor
Synecdoche, NY Doritos
by vertig0 on Dec 30, 2008 5:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Charlie Kaufman: The Wire of screenwriters
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Dec 30, 2008 5:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Malkovich!
Malkovich, Malkovich Malkovich Malkovich.
I see a deranged rabbit, on fire, cowering away from a vagina. I await the results of the Rorschaschererer. -Nico
by Leopold Bloom on Dec 30, 2008 6:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Please help: I need an AN history link...
to where “The Wire of…” started. It still makes me smile every time, but I know that I will laugh harder when I know the back story.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Dec 30, 2008 9:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
All I know is that somebody here doesn't recognize The Wire as the best-written television show ever
I don’t really understand how that can be, but it is.
by thejd44 on Dec 31, 2008 12:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I've never seen it.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 31, 2008 12:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You should. Everybody should.
It’s like watching well-written novels (except better, because in addition to great writing there’s great acting) about the state of urban life in modern America. Don’t let anybody tell you it’s a cop show, because it’s so much more.
by thejd44 on Dec 31, 2008 12:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess DVD is the answer.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 31, 2008 10:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
all depends on where you’re from, i suppose.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 30, 2008 5:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Twins take it.
If their young pitchers build on their success from last season, and Liriano pitches as he did down the stretch (and then some), I’ll go with Minnesota. Having two of best five hitters in the division does not hurt either.
The Indians seem to follow the New York Jets model of having a winning season every other year, but I’m not sure any more. Hafner is on the decline, the pitching staff is too inconsistent, and paying Kerry Wood 10 mil is just never a good idea.
by Pucking Insane on Dec 30, 2008 6:19 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
plus no way cliff lee has a repeat
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 30, 2008 7:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Was he particularly lucky this year?
Sure, his W-L record was lucky (it would be for anybody), but he was still a legitimately good pitcher.
by thejd44 on Dec 31, 2008 12:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
no, he wasn't really lucky
and so theoretically it’s possible he does the same thing next year. I mean, I guess it’s more of a hunch than an actual statistical probability, but the fact that before this year, he hasn’t been all that great leads me to believe he’s likely to post an ERA in the mid-to-high 3’s, rather than 2.5.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 31, 2008 7:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Talent regression rather than luck regression
He’s never posted an FIP below 3.79 before, but last year he put up a 2.83.
His Marcel ERA projection is 3.80, which makes him a good #2 pitcher but nothing like the guy he was last year.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 31, 2008 12:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Five way tie.
all five teams finishing at 80-82 and the first ever five team playoff with the Twins winning it with an 82-82 record.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Dec 30, 2008 10:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
1. Twins
2. Indians
3. Tigers
4. White Sox
5. Royals
by BillMoresi on Dec 31, 2008 8:31 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Well I will eliminate two teams...
The Royals and the Tigers. The Royals I eliminate because well…I always eliminate them. The Tigers because they did NOTHING to improve their biggest problem…the bullpen. The starting rotation is no gem either. Cleveland went out and got a legitimate closer and also added versatile position player Mark DeRosa today. I would guess that most evey Tiger fan felt pretty upset about all of the money spent (30 mill)on Dontrelle Willis, he sure didn’t work out.
I would think that the Twins would be the favorite in the division…but it’s too early to guess as some of the teams are still making moves.
by IM4Oakgal on Dec 31, 2008 2:39 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
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