Why we CAN catch the Angels...from an Angels fan
by ChadGod on Dec 29, 2008 11:26 PM PST
96 comments
While waiting for the annoying MegaVideo cooldown period to end I decided to take a look at some of my favorite secondary baseball blogs: LL, BTBS, and of course, for novelty Halos Heaven. While there I came across an interesting nugget that puts words to my sense of optimism going into the 2009 season.
Here is one Angels fan's response to a fanpost thread entitled "How competetive will the Angels be in 2009?"
Well, lets seeThe Angels run prevention is still well above average. They did, however, lose their closer and 5th starter and gold glove first baseman.
Assuming the roster stands pat, the angels are projected at around the bottom third of total offense in the AL, while up around the top third for pitching.
The A’s stand the best chance at catching us with top tier run prevention and an improving offense.
Most likely errors will go up in a significant way from other infield positions with a somewhat weak first baseman. Aybar will not have the assurance of throwing to a vacuum at first, his throwing errors will most likely go up significantly.
The closer position is going to have to be filled in 09, which currently would be Shield’s position. This moves everyone up a notch, making the bullpen weaker. If the league figures out Arrendondo’s two pitches(fastball, splitter is all he throws) then our bullpen becomes immediately exploitable. And we have all seen how Shields pitches against Boston.
The lineup of
Figgins
Aybar/Izturis
Vlad
Hunter
Rivera
Kendrick
Napoli
Moralesis weak. Especially considering we have no clear cut DH if Vlad plays the field. Who would DH, Willits? GMJ? Mathis? Izturis when is isnt SS?
All extremely weak options for your DH spot.
Some things to think about:
Kendrick remains injury prone
Errors become an issue, a big one
None of the young kids have a break out year
Hunter and Vlad continue to decline
Saunders/Satana are not as effective
5th spot is a rotating craphole and provides 15-20 lossesA combination of any of all of those factors could easily see us fall from 100 game winners to taking 2nd.
...I think they are all still quite bummed about losing teixiera and thus feeling quite pessimistic, but still if they don't sign an impact player I do believe they could collapse.
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and, we will be quite bummed about losing Holliday...
of course, winning the West in 2009 will make me feel a little better about it. And, who knows, if we win the West, we could win the World Series. If the Cardinals and Phillies can do it, we can… I know… I know… I’m part of the “we” clique.
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Dec 29, 2008 11:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
someone should make a shirt about that.
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
by ChadGod on Dec 29, 2008 11:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
the next AN t-shirt top-seller...
I’d buy one.
and, I’m serious as a Monkeyball.
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Dec 30, 2008 1:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I call copyright!
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
by ChadGod on Dec 30, 2008 11:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Catching the Angels
The possibility is definitely there. It’s up to our young rotation and if we can add a bat that’s good enough if you ask me.
by Rated-R Superstar on Dec 29, 2008 11:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I think it's ridiculous heading over to Halo's Heaven and hearing most of them say how great they will be
But I would really like to ask them, if we switched the amount of times we used the DL with the amount of times they did, how different would our records have been?
by stranahanahan on Dec 29, 2008 11:48 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
dontcha think their counter would be...
you chose to draft/sign the injury-prone players, we didn’t. You chose to extend Kotsay and not keep Byrnes. We can’t help it if your GM is dumb. Just playing Devil’s Advocate, of course.
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Dec 30, 2008 12:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Byrnes?
Didn’t he miss a large chunk of time last season and aren’t the Dbacks trying to get rid of him? I love the guy, but he isn’t a top tier major league player.
by jeffro on Dec 30, 2008 9:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Also it wasn't a choice between Kotsay and Byrnes. It was Payton and Kennedy/Witasick or
Byrnes and Bradford (and Quintanilla).
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 9:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, lets do the classic Roster Comparison then
2008 wOBA / 2009 James Projected wOBA / POS / Name
Angels Lineup:
.319 / .332 / 3B Figgins
.310 / .293 / SS Aybar
.373 / .399 / DH Vlad
.353 / .344 / CF Hunter
.303 / .323 / RF Matthews Jr.
.306 / .344 / LF Rivera
.328 / .351 / 2B Kendrick
.399 / .378 / C Napoli
.284 / .340 / 1B Morales
I put GMJ in Right Field, DHed Vlad and put Rivera in Left.
A’s Roster:
.328 / .331 / CF Ryan Sweeney
.314 / .350 / RF Travis Buck
.418 / .407 / LF Matt Holliday
.371 / .384 / DH Jack Cust
.302 / .348 / 3B Eric Chavez
.314 / .328 / 2B Mark Ellis
.320 / .327 / C Kurt Suzuki
.302 / .331 / 1B Daric Barton
.288 / .304 / SS Bobby Crosby
While their lineup does look rather sad, ours does not look all too much better. We really could use an upgrade at Shortstop and First Base.
.383 / .396 / Adam Dunn
.374 / .380 / Pat Burrell
.377 / .385 / Jason Giambi
.368 / .375 / Bobby Abreu
Any of those in place of Barton would improve our lineup greatly.
As for Shortstop, I don’t know where to begin…
But I’d wager that this year, our rotation will not be nearly as good as the Angels. Next year, I could see our rotation being better, but this year we have Duchscherer penciled in for the #1 slot, but after him, no one is set in stone.
facepalm.jpg
by Zonis on Dec 30, 2008 12:00 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
damn, you did all that in the time it took me to draft two sentences...
mark me down as impressed.
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Dec 30, 2008 12:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Texas did finish second last year. I'd think they'd be the first one to look at when
looking at challengers:
2B Kinsler
CF Byrd
1B Davis
RF Hamilton
LF Cruz
DH Blalock
SS Young
C Teagarden
3B Arias
That’s a much better lineup than either the A’s or the Angels. They lose Bradley but they get Davis for the whole year, and they did have the best offense in the AL last year.
Their pitching is another story, but they’d benefit by replacing Vazquez at 3B with Arias and moving Hamilton to RF. It’s not entirely inconceivable that Holland gets into the rotation at some point this year, and Feliz could at least help the pen like Price did last year. It’s probably a year too soon to pick them as favorites, but I’d they’re certainly no less of a threat than the A’s.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 1:12 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I'd put them at even money for 2nd with the A's this year...
unless Billy pulls off a super-spectacular deal… oh wait, he did that last year and got us all of these “prospects.” Okay, well, if one of his many acquired prospects surprises this year, we could outhit Texas. oh wait… who am I kidding… even if all of his prospects outhit Texas, it’d only be in AA, so… Texas will probably outhit us next year. As usual…
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Dec 30, 2008 1:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Beane has to make another move or two...
or else trading for Holliday doesnt make much sense. I still think we end up with one of Giambi/Dunn/Burell. Any maybe a vet starting pitcher of the league average variety.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Dec 30, 2008 1:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What League-Average Starting Pitchers are still available?
Ones that won’t cost a draft pick, and will sign for a year or two so to not block all our top pitching prospects?
Man, I really wish we had gotten Randy Johnson.
facepalm.jpg
by Zonis on Dec 30, 2008 1:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Doesnt have to be a signing.
Some sort of trade is possible.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Dec 30, 2008 1:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm glad we didn't get Johnson...
I’d rather throw Cahill or Anderson in the rotation (or both of ‘em) than have RJ’s broke down ass losing games for us.
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Dec 30, 2008 1:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
P.S.
he’s the perfect Sabean signing.
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Dec 30, 2008 1:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
he's also a pretty good Beane signing...if he wasn't 8 mil
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 30, 2008 6:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Throw two pitchers who are not MLB-ready into the rotation?
thus fucking with their development.
Stupid, stupid idea. The A’s don’t need to dick around with the two most important pieces of our future (C & A) just for the sake of contending in ’09.
"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."
by Blicks on Dec 30, 2008 4:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well if you're right that they're not ready, the A's won't contend with them in '09.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 6:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Mulder is still worth a look.
From Buster Olney today:
1. Mark Mulder: He still is just 31 years old, is left-handed and isn’t that far removed from the days when he was a front-of-the-rotation type of guy. And he believes he might have found a solution to his mechanical problem, with the work he’s been doing this winter with a trainer who has increased his range of motion. He’ll throw for scouts in January, and who knows — if he can get back to his old delivery and regain some velocity with the strength and flexibility training he’s been doing, he will be poised for a comeback season.
I watched him pitch this year and his fastball was right where it was when he was here. Around 91. If he can prove to Beane hes worth a shot they should take a risk. That also reminds me that a guy like Gio with basically the same fastball can be an excellent starting pitcher with that kinda stuff, if he keeps his delivery right while keeping his walks down.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Dec 30, 2008 2:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd do it. Street's gone so #20 is now available.
The upside of a #2 starter is mighty attractive.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 4:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
and if u get him cheap, then there isn't much risk
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 30, 2008 6:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You also got to like the A's psychological advantage here
Mulder has mental issues as well as physical ones. The only place he was ever dominant was Oakland. Youd have to figure that would be a leg up for him in terms of signing small contracts.
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
by ChadGod on Dec 30, 2008 11:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It seems like they ought to be able to work out a split contract with a wide range
so that, eg, he gets 500K or so in the minors but 3-4 million in the majors. I’d do that; there’s still enough upside there to make it worthwhile, even though it’s a shot in the dark.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 30, 2008 12:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's just the kind of low risk / high upside deal
the A’s are always seeking.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 2:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Along with Mulder
What about any of these three as a vet SP
Mark Prior, Kenny Rogers or Carl Pavano?
Not advocating for any of them just gauging feelings for them as a option.
by A'sfaninNC on Dec 30, 2008 1:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not Rogers as he hates Oakland. Sure on the other two on an NRI.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 1:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Rogers does not know how to lose at the Coliseum
This could offset the fact that he also does not know how to pitch effectively anymore.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 2:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ya, I was thinking he'd not want to come.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 2:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Fuck Kenny Rogers!
He can kiss my ass………cannot stand that SOB!
by mrod on Dec 30, 2008 2:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I've heard that
Prior thinks he’s solved his arm issues as well. Apparently, his past physicians failed to diagnose/fix a major tear, which has since been remedied. I’ll believe it when I see it though.
"Good or bad, I don't know. This is awesome." ~Nick Swisher after being asked if it was wise to poor beer on Lew Wolfe's head.
by humdinger on Dec 31, 2008 6:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I've always felt it's a good idea to sign people like Mulder and Prior
I’ll take any injured formerly good pitcher for $1 million plus big bonuses. If only 20% of them work out, it’s still worth it – either they put you in contention or you trade them for something shiny.
by MrIncognito on Dec 31, 2008 10:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe we can sign them
and just use them as spare parts? yknow, for when duchscherererer et al break down.
I have no solutions, just rejoindres
by alea iacta est on Dec 31, 2008 11:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A lot of pitchers will sign for one or two years when february gets here and they do not have a team. BB will just wait and see who is left.
by RayJEdd on Dec 30, 2008 2:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
they also play in the best hitters park
if they played in oakland they would have been more like 4th or 5th in runs scored
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
by Cheezombie on Dec 30, 2008 2:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe, but their AEQR, which is park adjusted, was #1 in the AL.
A bit ahead of the Red Sox. The raw run total was way ahead of everyone else. Even park-adjusted they their offense was 282 Equivalent Runs more than Oakland.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 4:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, and they don't have bradley anymore
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
by Cheezombie on Dec 30, 2008 1:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ok that's 30 runs. What about the other 252?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 1:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Texas position players are projected a notch lower than ours because
their defense is HORRIBLE. I’m not worried about them unless their pitching develops during Spring training and ours doesnt.
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
by ChadGod on Dec 30, 2008 11:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They can't possibly be projected lower than ours. Who did that?
Nobody’s worse than ours.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 12:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Various places, the most recent one I saw being at Beyond the Boxscore
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 30, 2008 12:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Really? A lineup that scored 282 more AEQR than Oakland in 2008 is now worse?
Bradley or no Bradley. Holliday or no Holliday. Defense or no defense, I’m having trouble coming to grips with that.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 1:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
because 2008 isn't this teams real talent.
We already replaced a replacement level player with an MVP candidate, ellis was very unlucky with his babip, he was in line for the 2nd best season of his career. Chavez will play more games than last season(it’s pretty hard not to). Carlos Gonzalez will not have ABs.
A lineup of
Buckingham
sweeney
Cust
Holliday
Chavez/hannahan
Ellis
Barton
Crosby
Suzuki
has potential to be above average and is miles better than
Sweeney
Unlucky/unhealthy Ellis
Brown
Cust
hannahan
carlos gonzalez
Barton
Crosby
Suzuki
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
by Cheezombie on Dec 30, 2008 2:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
All this is fine but the difference is so astronomical I'm having trouble seeing a
projection that says it’s more likely than not that those 282 runs will be made up. Even with Bradley out and Holliday in. Even figuring in defense. It’s a gigantic difference.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 2:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I also don't agree that Ellis was unlucky in 2008
I think his BABIP was low because he hit an inordinate number of lazy routine fly balls, which just don’t tend to fall in under any circumstances. Perhaps he was dropping an aching shoulder, I don’t know, but the way he hit the ball he was not prone to bad luck, just a lot of easy outs.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 2:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
unless i see a number that shows weak line drives compared to other players with similar LD rates this means little to me
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
by Cheezombie on Dec 30, 2008 2:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
and do you really think he deserved a .249 babip even if he did hit a some more weak line drives than normal?
in other words, do you really think he deserved a drop from a 20% LD to a 14-15% based on that? that is HUGE
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
by Cheezombie on Dec 30, 2008 2:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, I do. And they weren't weak line drives.
When you drop your shoulder (for whatever reason), the balls that used to come off your bat as line drives instead come off as routine high fly balls. And that’s exactly what happened. I’m not at all surprised that he dropped from 20% to 15% line drives, because that’s exactly what it looked like.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 2:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
he had a 20.1% line drive
i’m asking if you truly think he deserved a .249 babip with a 20.1 LD% that includes weaker line drives
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
by Cheezombie on Dec 30, 2008 2:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I don't know
I just know that the overwhelming majority of his outs in 2008 looked to me like balls that never fall in, rather than balls that just “usually don’t fall in.” Maybe he was unlucky not to have more of his line drives go for hits, but not to the tune of “should have hit way higher” – maybe just a little higher.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 3:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
In other words, what I think he DIDN'T hit
were the normal number of “medium ground balls” and “medium fly balls” – balls that are usually played for outs but sometimes find holes. He hit some line drives, for hits, the usual number of routine bouncers, and a ton of lazy routine fly ball outs.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 3:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
but lazy routine fly ball outs aren't Line Drives
his line drive rate went UP, his walk rate went UP, his babip went DOWN significantly. If you adjust his stats with the expected babip with the LD rate he was in line with his career numbers, and very similar to 2007, but with a higher OBP due to the higher walk rate.
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
by Cheezombie on Dec 30, 2008 3:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Right, what I'm saying is that
he hit more line drives, and those were most of his hits. But he hit fewer “sometimes are hits” balls and a lot more “never are hits” balls, which is why his overall BA was low even with an increase in LDs.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 3:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of which...I can remember when
my balls were a hit……
by mrod on Dec 30, 2008 4:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
that's just, like, your opinion, man
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
by Cheezombie on Dec 30, 2008 4:32 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
He was unlucky
The Bendix formula gives his predicted 2008 LD rate as around .270, which is low (probably b/c of injury), and certainly much lower than the crude “LD rate plus .120” formula would give you, but still substantially higher than his actual rate of .249.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 30, 2008 4:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
you mean his predicted babip around .270?
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
by Cheezombie on Dec 30, 2008 4:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
and where do you find this Bendix formula?
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
by Cheezombie on Dec 30, 2008 4:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Respectively: Yes, and at the Hardball Times
Search the articles, and there should be one he co-wrote which contains a link to an excel document. I just downloaded the document so I could check it whenever the need arose.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 30, 2008 6:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He was crappy as Babe Ruth though.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 9:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You have to remember just how horrible Texas defense is
Hamilton is below average, Kinsler is bad, Michael Young is atrocious! I don’t remember anyone else, but no one is good.
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
by ChadGod on Dec 31, 2008 9:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Chris Davis is also below average at 3B, I think,
and Marlon Byrd was no great shakes in LF.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 31, 2008 9:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Right they need to move some people around to their natural positions
Hamilton to RF
Byrd isn’t that bad in CF
Davis to 1B
I’d put Arias at 3B and help the staff a bit. There aren’t any big K guys on there. Borbon should help in CF, maybe later in the year. Young wasn’t terrible last year (he won a Gold Glove!), but he should move to 3B when Andrus comes up in 2010.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 31, 2008 10:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Young was bad at defense last year
The Gold Glove is meaningless. He was about 4 runs below average with the glove last year, and with defense you have to take a much larger sample to get the same predictive power as offensive stats. Since he became a full time SS, he’s averaged 12.4 runs below average with the glove per 150 games played. He’s also 32 years old, so you can count on those numbers getting worse.
Young can hit a little, so that makes him worth something at SS, but he’s not all that.
For 2009, his Bill James projection in -1.5 with the bat, we’ll plug in his average -12.4 with the glove and the +7.5 positional adjustment and you about a half win below average, or about 1.5 wins above replacement.
by MrIncognito on Dec 31, 2008 11:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bradley, Holliday, and defense account for roughly 180 of those 280 runs
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 30, 2008 4:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow!
And I guess regression to the mean and Chavez and Ellis the others. I can see a scenario where the A’s lineup is better. I wouldn’t call it the most likely scenario though.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 9:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I can see one scenario,
but it involves me slipping heroin into Josh Hamilton’s orange juice.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 9:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't either
but it’s less insane than it sounds.
The runs scored differential would look a little more normal if you moved the Rangers players who are playing out of position to spots where they would be decent defensively (Young to 3rd, Kinsler to LF, etc) and replaced their incumbents at those positions with similarly talented overall players at the spots further up the defensive spectrum.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 30, 2008 10:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
for this topic, i would refer back to "Projecting the Enemy" by PaulThomas
Save Rajai Davis
by oakinboston on Dec 30, 2008 5:31 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Also a good article projecting a four team race on
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 8:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
calling Hanley Ramirez a four team race has got to be some sort of cgv
Save Rajai Davis
by oakinboston on Dec 30, 2008 11:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I realize you kid, but
for everyone else, just scroll down the page. A pretty underwhelming analysis however.
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
by ChadGod on Dec 30, 2008 11:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Underwhelming in detail, but the idea that all four teams are close means we shouldn't
focus exclusively on the Angels.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 12:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ugh. A bad link. I hate bad links. Should have stuck to the Louisiana Hots.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 30, 2008 12:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
In former Soviet Union, Louisiana hots stick to *you*
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Dec 30, 2008 12:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What do you guy think avout Dana Eveland?
He started off great and wore down as the wear went on. He was throwing 92-94 beginning of the year and 89-91 at the end. He threw a lot more innings in 08 than he ever did prior. At the end of the year he tweaked his delivery witch could explain some velocity lose. But I think he has a good yea in 09. 200 innings 3.90 ERA if he can keep is walks under control.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Dec 30, 2008 2:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Personally, I'm warming up to him a bit post revamped delivery
His lack of command and poor body language concern me, but OTOH I really do trust the A’s evaluation of pitchers and they seem to like him a lot. Plus, “late movement” is a key aspect of a pitcher’s stuff IMO and Eveland seems to have it. I still see him more as a #4 starter, but that’s an upgrade from the #5 moniker I attributed to him six months ago.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 2:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I have a little more faith in him than you.
I think hes a solid #3.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Dec 30, 2008 2:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Eveland
Every once in a while, I like to look at Baseball Reference’s similarity scores to see who they think a player is comparable to — for Eveland, the top match (at age 24) is Odalis Perez. Other matches (among active players) are Dave Weathers, Esteban Loaiza, and Adam Loewen. Not the most promising group, but certainly not as bad as it could be.
I see Eveland as no better than a #5 SP (on a contending team), but good enough to hold down that spot so long as he’s cheap. He’s good to have on the team right now, and I won’t be surprised when Cahill, Anderson, Mazzero, and Simmons leap right over him and squeeze him out of our long-term plans.
by Uncle Charlie on Dec 30, 2008 3:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I would be shocked...
… if Eveland put up a 3.90 ERA. SHOCKED!! I’ll be happy if he can put up a 4.50 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. He doesn’t have the stuff to maintain a 3.90 ERA over the course of 200 IP. When you don’t miss bats (6.3 K/9 in 2008) and you give up walks (4.1 BB/9 in 2008), you don’t end up with a 3.90 ERA.
by Uncle Charlie on Dec 30, 2008 3:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
you really think he will do worse than last season?
he had an fip of 4.09 which is damn solid
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
by Cheezombie on Dec 30, 2008 3:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
2008 was basically his rookie year as a starter.
And he had an ERA under 4 for most of the year. One would assume he could get better… not worse. I look for him to improve. He had a 4.09 ERA one start before his last start. He got lit up in his last starts for 7ER inflating his era to 4.34. So while his walks were to high he showed improvement after his tweaked delivery.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Dec 30, 2008 3:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Also he had a K:BB rate of
13:33 when he back from AAA with his new delivery.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Dec 30, 2008 3:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Err make that:
13:33 BB:K
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Dec 30, 2008 3:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Basically I think where we can all agree is that
if Eveland walks more than 4 batters per 9 IP again next year, he’ll probably not have an ERA under 4.00 – but that if he can lower his BB/9IP to around 3.5 or better, he has a chance.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 3:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
I just like him a bit more than most.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on Dec 30, 2008 4:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Eveland had a 7.4 K/9 and a 2.8 BB/9 in September 2008. If he can repeat those numbers in 2009, his ERA will be in the 3.50-4.00 range. If he cannot repeat those numbers (and he regresses to the 6 K/9-4 BB/9 pitcher that he was from April through August), then I don’t see him being much better than a 4.50-5.00 ERA pitcher. It’s all about missing bats and limiting baserunners.
by Uncle Charlie on Dec 30, 2008 4:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Those numbers seem about right.
However he throws, Eveland’s stats will be helped by pitching half his games in Oakland and all his games backed by Ellis and Co.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 30, 2008 4:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ground balls help a lot
Eveland is our only real ground ball pitcher right now, which is a shame given that the A’s infield defense is so good. Given the defense behind him and his peripherals last year, a 4.50 ERA would be a bit of a disappointment, but that’s why ERA isn’t a good stat.
by MrIncognito on Dec 31, 2008 7:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We should do those community projections like they do on LL
and I think we have done in the past as well? Get one of our heavyweights to fully weigh out the pros and cons and their own projections and then open it up for info gathering.
woohoo! great idea since I dont have to do the work. Eveland would be one of the more interesting, and pivotal, cases
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
by ChadGod on Dec 31, 2008 9:29 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
LL's projections weren't that good
It was a fun exercise, but you’re better off sticking with PECOTA and UZR.
by MrIncognito on Dec 31, 2008 11:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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