Josh's Meanderings: Holliday Edition

The Prospect Depth Chart below should help, at a glance, to tell how deep the A’s are at each position, in terms of quality and quantity. List is ranked by order they appear in the Community Prospect List.

A’s Top Prospect Depth Chart:
Starting Pitching:
[SC] [FG] [137+] Trevor Cahill, RHP
[SC] [FG] [133+] Brett Anderson, LHP
[SC] [FG] [119+] Gio Gonzalez, LHP
[SC] [FG] [114+] James Simmons, RHP
[SC] [FG] [126+] Vin Mazzaro, RHP
[SC] [FG] [000+] ]Michel Inoa, RHP
[SC] [FG] [136+] Henry Rodriguez, RHP
[SC] [FG] [000+] Fautino De Los Santos, RHP
[SC] [FG] [136+] Arnold Leon, RHP #
[SC] [FG] [107+] Josh Outman, LHP #
[SC] [FG] [076+] Brett Hunter, RHP
[SC] [FG] [114+] Tyson Ross, RHP
[SC] [FG] [118+] Craig Italiano, RHP
[SC] [FG] [124+] Carlos Hernandez, LHP

Relief Pitching:
[SC] [FG] [136+] Henry Rodriguez, RHP #
[SC] [FG] [136+] Arnold Leon, RHP
[SC] [FG] [107+] Josh Outman, LHP
[SC] [FG] [131+] Sam Demel, RHP
[SC] [FG] [083+] Andrew Carignan, RHP
[SC] [FG] [118+] Craig Italiano, RHP #
[SC] [FG] [080+] Andrew Bailey, RHP
[SC] [FG] [127+] Jared Lansford, RHP
[SC] [FG] [081+] Travis Banwart, RHP

Catcher:
[SC] [FG] [087+] Josh Donaldson, C
[SC] [FG] [102+] Petey Paramore, C
[SC] [FG] [099+] Landon Powell, C

First Base/Designated Hitter:
[SC] [FG] [117+] Chris Carter, 3B/1B #
[SC] [FG] [115+] Sean Doolittle, 1B/RF #
[SC] [FG] [106+] Matt Spencer, OF/1B

Middle Infield:
[SC] [FG] [107+] Adrian Cardenas, SS/2B #
[SC] [FG] [122+] Jemile Weeks, 2B
[SC] [FG] [000+] Nino Leyja, SS #
[SC] [FG] [086+] Gregorio Petit, SS
[SC] [FG] [103+] Jason Christian, SS
[SC] [FG] [000+] Dusty Coleman, SS
[SC] [FG] [105+] Cliff Pennington, SS

Third Base:
[SC] [FG] [117+] Chris Carter, 3B/1B
[SC] [FG] [107+] Adrian Cardenas, SS/2B
[SC] [FG] [000+] Nino Leyja, SS
[SC] [FG] [109+] Jeff Baisley, 3B

Centerfield:
[SC] [FG] [116+] Aaron Cunningham, CF
[SC] [FG] [000+] Rashun Dixon, CF
[SC] [FG] [111+] Corey Brown, CF
[SC] [FG] [101+] Javier Herrera, OF

Outfield:
[SC] [FG] [115+] Sean Doolittle, 1B/RF
[SC] [FG] [109+] Matt Sulentic, OF
[SC] [FG] [106+] Matt Spencer, OF/1B #
[SC] [FG] [101+] Javier Herrera, OF #
[SC] [FG] Robin Rosario, OF

[#] Some players may be listed at multiple positions. # indicates that this is their most likely position, or best position they can stick at. Other instances of the player mean that they can/might shift over to that position eventually, in either best case or worst case scenario. This does not take into account other players/prospects pushing them out of that position. [#]

The System has gone in several places from a position of need to a position of depth, and visa versa. Middle Infield, as soon as mid 2008, was a barren wasteland, with only Petit and Pennington there who could amount to anything. Since then, we’ve seen a haul of Middle Infield draft prospects as well as Adrian Cardenas from the Joe Blanton trade. The Problem for the A’s, however, is that pretty much all of this Middle Infield Depth is in the low minors, quite a few years away, while there is a pressing need at the MLB Level for a quality Shortstop.

Starting Pitching has also become a place of massive depth compared to 2007, when the system had great pitching in the Majors, but almost nothing in the minors-when Jason Windsor, Shane Komine and Mike Madsen were being touted as our top prospects.

But just as Pitching and Middle Infield depth has grown, the system is completely barren of Corner Infield depth. The only real true Corner Infield prospects the team has are Chris Carter and Sean Doolittle, both who are 1B prospects, though the team is trying to get Carter to stick at 3B. If he does somehow manage to play average, or slightly below, at 3B in the Majors, he would be a great welcome, but thus far it is not known if he can stick there, or even at First Base. Doolittle looks like a Gold Glove 1B, and a good hitter, but not quite as good as Carter with the bat. But aside from those two, there is no one else there (unless you count Matt Spencer and hope that his 2nd half of 2008 was the real Spencer). Compared to years past, when 1B/DH was the teams position of strength, this is definitely a change.

The System also has a rather amazing amount of Center field depth in the system, though somewhat a lack of Corner Outfield depth up the chart. This is made up for, though, by the slew of young outfielders on the 25 man roster (Sweeney and Buck), and OF depth on the 40 man Roster (Denorfia, Davis, Murton, etc…).

Catcher is also somewhat thin, but with Kurt Suzuki installed in the Majors, it is not a pressing need. Galarraga and Powell should battle for the Backup Catcher spot in 2009 or 2010, whenever Rob Bowen becomes obsolete or too expensive. And by the time that Suzuki is ready to leave, Josh Donaldson or Pete Paramore should be ready.

Holliday should be expected to be a 5 win player for the next couple years. If they give him 7 years, he’ll probably be 1.5 to 2 wins at the end of that.

the A’s SHOULD have “overpaid” for Furcal, too.

Sometimes, in order to field a competitive team, you have to bite the bullet and go beyond what you think a player is objectively worth because the realities of the marketplace and the player’s own affinity for another team/destination dictate that you have to clearly outbid everybody else if you want to get him.

As for Holliday, what I think Paul is saying is that there is no reasonable justification for believing that the A’s will get him on as “fair” or “reasonable” a contract as they, or even as the fanbase on this site, would find acceptable. That doesn’t mean the A’s can’t or shouldn’t go after him and try to sign him- it just means they have to decide if they’re willing to outbid others for his services, either by offering him such a huge deal now while he’s under contract for an extension that he says yes to it, or by offering him the most money over a comparable contract-length as anybody else in the marketplace is willing to offer in the 2009 offseason.

It’s easy to criticize teams for “overpaying” for players, but it’s also true that if you need a particular piece badly enough and have the money to make it happen and then you don’t get it done… well, you’ve failed in my view. The whole Furcal thing was a failure. It was a failure of the A’s front office to pay what they had to pay to get the serious upgrade to the shortstop position that they needed, when such a player was readily available and ready to be signed.

So they need to learn from this experience, vis-a-vis Holliday… if they really plan to try and keep him, that is. And if they want him, then they need to pay what it takes to keep him, even if bloggers and the press disdain them for “overpaying” to do it.

I would also submit, by the way, that Teixeira was eminently signable if the A’s had wanted to pursue him, and he probably would’ve been an even better FA target than Holliday who will likely be the lone bright star of a middling-to-poor FA market next offseason, far as position players go at any rate. We, as fans, look at the Yankees swooping in at the last minute to sign him for more money and cry foul and are unhappy that a team can do that. You know what? The A’s had the payroll flexibility this offseason to do that, too. And they could’ve done what the Yankees did… if they wanted to, and if they thought it was a smart decision going forward. Obviously they didn’t feel he was the player they wanted to go after, which is understandable since Doolittle and Carter are coming up and Barton is somebody they still believe in. Do they feel like Holliday is worth paying what it’ll take to keep?

We’ll see.

how much extra the A’s are willing to give him, and if the overall deal they offer him meets his expectations for what he might get on the free agent market after the season.

I do not believe he will give the A’s a discount from what he expects he can make as a free agent after the 2009 season. He already rejected Colorado’s offer of a high value extension previously.

If the A’s want to sign him long-term before he hits free agency, I think they will need to offer him enough money and years that he can say “you know what? even if I could get a tiny bit more on the open market, this is probably about as good as it gets… I’ll take it.”

You won’t get that sort of reaction/acceptance with a 6/140 deal or a 7/160 deal. You might get it with an 8/180 or 8/200 deal, though. So it’s just a question of whether or not the A’s are really willing to pay top dollar to keep him or not, and if they really think it’s in their best interest to do so. We can debate the wisdom of that move, but to think it won’t take that kind of money to get it done is, as Paul indicated, pretty naive or an exercise in wishful thinking.

The A’s should have a lot of money to play with next offseason…

(Recommends post)

They’re still saddled with the 4 largest contracts in history, Holliday would probably get close to that. With all their other guys assumedly getting arbitration raises, etc. maybe they don’t want to spend that money on LF, or perhaps they resign Damon…

Hell, they could probably do that now because the Teixeira deal leaves Swisher without a position in New York.

with an annoying one-line retort question that irks me. But I’m not breaking up with you again. I wish I cud quit yew!!

He’ll probably be an alright player. And he might develop into something great. But this is the last offseason where he’s going to be “unknown youngster with enormous potential.” If you think he’s not going to develop, now was the time to trade him.

Whether trading him for Holliday was the right move might depend entirely on if the A’s win the World Series in 2009.

thanks