4 years younger than Burell, higher OPS.

UZR has Burrell costing nearly 30 runs on defense over the last two years.

Just what day of the week are you thinking of?

I think Burrel’s natural position is at Daunting Horse…..
as in DH! But, I like his bat. Just not sure how those #s would hold up at the Coliseum.

I am talking ice cold, (Lambeau in February cold).

But, Dunn’s definitely not worth it and Burrell may not either. Personally, I’d like a reasonably priced Giambi because of the sentimental value.

but I understand the flexibility for the team if Dunn or GIambi were signed over him. Burrell is a butcher in the field, and probably cannot play 1st for his life either. With GIambi you can play him at first and at least know what your going to get without holding much back as far as youth..(assuming Barton is in AAA or the bench, which I really dont want to happen).

Burell’s Offense

Using his 2009 Marcel wOBA (and an arbitrary 550 PA) to convert into runs above average: ((.367-.331)/1.15)*60 = 18.17

Eyeballing his last three years in LF, his UZR/150 is going to be about -15 runs below average

This comes out to be a net total of 3.17 runs above average. Now comes the last step, adjusting for position. If Burrell were to play all his games in LF, he would be (3.17-7.5) -4.33 runs below average.

Redoing the numbers using first base (and since I don’t have data for his UZR/150 at 1b, I’m going to guess that he’d be -10 runs per 150 games), he comes out to be 8.17 runs above average without a positional adjustment. Throwing the adjustment in, he’s going to be (8.17-12.5) -4.33 runs below average, again.

Giambi, at first base (and using his marcel wOBA for 550 PA) is going to be:
((.359-.335)/1.15)*550 = 11.48 runs above average.

Giambi’s career UZR/150 at 1b is -3.9. So, add those two together, and you get 7.58 runs above average. Throw in the positional adjustment, and he’s (7.58-12.5) -4.92 runs below average.

Just for funsies, here are Barton’s numbers (keeping all metrics the same)

Marcel wOBA runs above average: ((.333-.335)/1.15*150 = -.26 runs below average

Career UZR/150 at 1b is 6.8 runs above average

Net runs: 5.54 runs above average

Positonal adjustment: 5.54-12.5 = -6.96

Of course, all my numbers used here are set at arbitrary points, but I tried to be practical. Burell is probably the best upgrade assuming his 1b defense doesn’t suck TOO bad, but he’s going to be quite expensive for such a marginal upgrade. If I’m going to sign someone, I think I’d want to go with Giambi. Of course, if no one gets signed, it’s a good thing to remember that Barton is young and has hit well in AAA. He is likely to improve, and he is already at or near league average as a 1b, so the only way is up for him.

another team.