Furcal to make his decision Next Week (again)
by Zonis on Dec 10, 2008 11:57 PM PST
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PrintRafeal Furcal appears to be en route to making his decision next week... just like he did a week or so ago... and the week before.
Agent Paul Kinzer said that he expects Rafael Furcal to make a decision on his future next week.
The Dodgers, A's, Blue Jays and Royals are Furcal's known suitors, and the Blue Jays and Royals would both have to make moves to trim payroll in order to have any chance of affording him. It'll probably come down to the Dodgers and A's.
Source: ESPN.com
The Toronto Star believes that the Blue Jays are not really interested in Furcal, and that Furcal's Agent, Paul Kinzer, is using the Blue Jays as a negotiating ploy. The Kansas City Royals can not make any moves until they clear payroll, which essentially means dumping Jose Guillen's contract-a contract that no one will be willing to take with so many players on the market that could be had for cheaper and who are better.
So I think it will end up like this. Will Furcal choose the low year-high money contract from the Dodgers (2/25?) or go with a 4 year deal from the A's (to whom I assume they'd have to bump up their offer from 4/36 to at least 4/39).
And should the A's really sign Furcal anyways, with his injury history? Should the A's stick with Bobby Bones Crosby one final year, hoping on his 'Potential'? Should the A's deal for a Shortstop Prospect like Jason Donald from the Phillies? Or an established Shortstop who might cost something in prospects, such as JJ Hardy (MIL) or Yunel Escobar (ATL)?
And even with all this, can the A's make any more signings that they need to win, such as Randy Johnson (who's suitors have increased from just the A's and Giants, to include the Rangers, Dodgers, Angels and Cubs) or one of the three 1B/DH's out there that could be the bat that would allow us to score more than 3 runs a game (Dunn, Burrell, Giambi)?
So yes, another Furcal thread. But hey, its the winter meetings, so anything can happen.
Happy Rule 5 Day Everyone!
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I have to say this...
Bobby Crosby is probably one of the worst if not the worst shortstop in MLB right now. The A’s don’t have any real alternatives in their system over the next couple of years. If it weren’t for these two facts, I would pretty much tell Furcal to go **** himself.
Because all of the Furcal nonsense is annoying me.
"To this day and dating back 25 years, before every game he plays, Henderson stands completely naked in front of a full length locker room mirror and says, "Ricky’s the best," for several minutes."
by VORP is too nerdy on Dec 11, 2008 12:06 AM PST reply actions
well we have Cardenas, who could be ready in 2010 if he plays at AA and AAA in 2009
but then again, who knows if he can stick at SS.
facepalm.jpg
I think we can plan for Cardenas not to stick at SS. I'll be pleasantly surprised if he can play 2B.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 11, 2008 1:04 AM PST up reply actions
That's not the point.
The point is that the Furcal sweepstakes have become a circus. How many times was he going to make his decision? Isn’t this the third or fourth time he was supposed to make his decision? Then the A’s were essentially the only players left in the market, and he turns down their offer because it’s too low. Okay. Yeah. You’re a 31 year old short stop with a bad back. You missed most of 2008. You declined fairly steeply in 2007…. And you expect the same pay you’re getting right now for the next 4 years? Come on…
It just stinks with stupidity.
"To this day and dating back 25 years, before every game he plays, Henderson stands completely naked in front of a full length locker room mirror and says, "Ricky’s the best," for several minutes."
by VORP is too nerdy on Dec 11, 2008 2:48 AM PST up reply actions
I'd rather just go with Petit/Pennington.
This protracted Furcal wooing in hopes of getting him signed is annoying. Damn guy probably didn’t even have to foot the lunch bill for himself, his wife, and agent. He got a free lunch while touring Oakland! FREE LUNCH!
I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.
by franks a lot on Dec 11, 2008 6:32 AM PST up reply actions
I agree
Petit should get the nod. Use the money being offered for Furcal for Randy Johnson or John Smoltz. The staff needs a valuable veteran. And according to Bobby Cox on XM MLB channel on Monday, he rates Smoltz at 65-70% in rehab progress.
Just my 2cents of the 36million offered to R.F.
Billy Beane plays with the A's like Legos.
Why do contract negotiations bother you?
There’s nothing really odd here, except that Furcal has probably overestimated his open market value.
by thejd44 on Dec 11, 2008 12:17 PM PST up reply actions
+1
I have to agree with you. The guy has an agent who is holding out for bigger money, that is his job. Free agency is the game, and he is just playing it. It SUCKS that he is dicking around with us, but I am just glad this off season we are actually having this problem instead of trying to get excited about picking up some has-been.
I dream of Fremont and rainbows
by OptimistPrime on Dec 11, 2008 12:53 PM PST up reply actions
+1
As fans we feel frustrated by Furcal, Scott Boras, etc., but I know for certain that all of us would feel completely different if we were in Furcal’s shoes. I mean, if I believed that I stood to make an additional $3-4 million just by holding off on signing a deal, why would I rush?
Someone’s going to sign Furcal… and almost certainly for a pretty dece chunk of change, so he’s in no hurry. Then again, this is getting a bit lengthy and I’d love some resolution finally!
Blogadilla.com: The Tijuana of the Internet
I agree.
Usually, when a team signs a really- big-name FA early in the offseason, its more indicative of the team overpaying (Hunter, Silva, etc.) as opposed to the FA really not having suitors.
There’s nothing odd here. Let the market do its work. Furcal’s price ain’t going up unless someone decides to be a dumbass, and if that’s the case, then the A’s should kindly back the hell out of negotiations and let the other team way overpay.
Dude. This.
This is typical
I have no beef with a player trying to get as much as he can get in December. Seems like typical contract negotations to me. Frustrating to fans who want to start thniking about how their team’s roster is filling out, but Furcal shouldn’t leave money on the table to appease the fans of the team he might play for… we’re talking about millions of dollars here.
I disagree that the solution is to just go with Petit/Pennington. Those guys are barely upgrades over Crosby offensively. Furcal (assuming he’s healthy) is a significant upgrade over all of them, and puts us in a better position to contend next year (our window with Holliday is small).
Anyway, I think Furcal will end up signing in LA if we don’t increase our offer from 4/36. I think we need to get over $10M annually to bring him in, and we have to hope the Dodgers don’t add a third guaranteed year…
by Uncle Charlie on Dec 11, 2008 12:58 PM PST up reply actions
I don't necessarily blame him.
But, for me, it became ridiculous when they were essentially pretending like the Blue Jays were seriously interested in him to gain leverage.
"To this day and dating back 25 years, before every game he plays, Henderson stands completely naked in front of a full length locker room mirror and says, "Ricky’s the best," for several minutes."
by VORP is too nerdy on Dec 11, 2008 3:35 PM PST up reply actions
Leverage?
Someone call Nathan Ford!
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Dec 12, 2008 1:54 AM PST up reply actions
re
Royals are apparently signing Farnsworth for $9m (wtf?).
by AgitationStation on Dec 11, 2008 5:51 AM PST reply actions
less money for furcal
and i don’t think they have a real shot, anyway, given the improbability of getting rid of guillen’s contract anytime soon. i think its us and LA. and i’m not sure about LA, either…i would think they want to figure out the manny situation before moving on anyone else.
by guy incognito on Dec 11, 2008 6:35 AM PST up reply actions
If I'm Furcal and just thinking about the money...
I’d take the Dodgers offer. Look at is this way… If he gets a 2/25 contract that means he only needs to get a 2/11 contract after that to equal what the A’s offered. Even if he has 2 off years or even hits the DL for significant time, he’ll still get that kind of money.
The A’s better have upped their ante or Furcal is going to stay a Dodger.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
Also, I'm starting to think
he just doesn’t want to play for the A’s…
That’s why he’s taking so long.
It would be so simple for him to go to Billy now, and say “I’ve got 2/25 + an option year from LA, and my family is down there, and we’ve been a good team. I want 4/44, because 4/36 is not much of an upgrade on 2/25. Can we get it done? No? Ok, I’ll be happy in LA.”
I think this may be right...
Furcal may not want to play in Oakland, and just be using the A’s offer to get more out of the Dodgers. It wouldn’t be at all surprising for him to turn down whatever other offer we make, and to accept a two-year deal from LA.
by Uncle Charlie on Dec 11, 2008 1:03 PM PST up reply actions
money is one thing
but becasue of his injuries, he wants a club that wants to throw money at him incase his back flares up again
Down grade
Since Furcal keeps screwing the A’s tells me he doesn’t want to come to Oakland just use the A’s as a wedge to get a better deal. Beane should come out and say its a 3 year deal now and vesting for a 4th. I now rather see the A’s sign Cabrera fior 2 years and move on. Furcal is proving he is not a team player.
Furcal is much better than Cabrera...
It’ll be interesting to see what all the ANers say about Cabrera when he’s with Oakland considering what was said about him when he was in LA.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
less bagage
Furcal was hurt is which worries me. Furcal as you can see is not interested in coming to Oakland. He is using the A’s to get a better contract from LA. Kinzer other free agent krod signed but Furcal is dragging it out as long as possible which makes me wonder why for only a few million more he is doing it. I feel his back injury is worse and he knows he needs more time to heal. Time for the A’s to move on. Cabrera defense is solid and his bat is better than Crosby. A upgrade.
Furcal is only slightly better than Cabrera
really. i do not jest. Furcal is probably at best a 1 win upgrade from Cabrera, and that’s assuming that he stays healthy a full season. Cabrera has a much stronger health record than Furcal, so I think the two players are closer than you might think. However, Furcal is significantly younger and better, but I’m not so sure I wouldn’t rather have Cabrera on a 2 year deal.
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 11, 2008 10:02 AM PST up reply actions
Cabrera costs picks, and is not as good as Furcal
Cabrera’s offense is barely an upgrade over Croz. Bill James (not the best projection system, but not the worst) projects Crosby to have a 680 OPS next year and Cabrera to have a 705 OPS. That isn’t worth a draft pick and a 2/18 deal (or whatever it’ll take to get Cabrera). Either we go for broke on Furcal (projected 765 OPS next season), or we settle for Croz and look elsewhere. Cabrera shouldn’t be in the discussion.
by Uncle Charlie on Dec 11, 2008 1:08 PM PST up reply actions
That's what I was getting at.
Cabrera: 1 win upgrade, costs 9M and a draft pick
Furcal: 2 win upgrade, costs 10-12M and no picks
Makes sense to pay the extra 3M and retain a pick to get the better player.
Right...
… I was agreeing with you.
Spend the money. Save the draft pick. Get a better player.
by Uncle Charlie on Dec 11, 2008 1:18 PM PST up reply actions
If it were just $3m, absolutely ...
but the extra 1-2 years means its really $15-$27m …
A second round pick is not worth more than a couple mil … (if that)
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
That's only partially accurate
It’s extremely unlikely that the A’s will have a homegrown option ready to replace Cabrera in 2011, which means you’re shopping again in the FA market. Sure, you could always trade for a SS but then you’d have to factor the lost talent into the “cost” equation.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Yes, but that has nothing to do about the cost as devo was describing it
The monster at the end of this blog.
That's true ...
my point was that the second round pick is practically irrelevant, relative to the other cost factors …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
There are exceptions to the norms
But, it isn’t the norm for a 2nd round pick to be a top prospect/good player/even a useful player.
Dude. This.
Sure, but that doesn't make the pick irrevalent.
Especially with the apparent new desire to go over slot on guys.
The pick isn't irrelevant, you are right
but preventing a potential albatross situation if/when Furcal lands on the DL for long periods of time is worth giving up the pick.
Drafts are roulette wheels, especially when you get into later rounds.
Dude. This.
The second round is not a later round, and the A's have drafted quite well there.
Last 10 2nd round picks:
Tyson Ross
Grant Desme
Josh Horton
Trevor Cahill
craig Italiano
Jared Lansford
Michael Rogers
Kurt Suzuki
Andre Ethier
Steve Stanley
There’s a lot more hits than misses there.
+1
This isn’t basketball.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
It isn't?
OK, I need to rethink some of my earlier posts.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The point, of course, being that in basketball second round picks are useless
Heck, even late first round picks are pretty lame.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Cabrera: Little to no injury history
Furcal: Balky back, injury history.
Who would you rather have long term (all else being equal, which of course they are not)
Whatever you pay Cabrera, he is likely to make good on. Whatever you pay Furcal…well by the end of his deal, we’ll be wanting to replace him anyway.
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 11, 2008 1:49 PM PST up reply actions
injury history?
really?
2002: 154
2003: 156
2004: 143
2005: 154
2006: 159
2007: 138
2008: 36
Those are his games played. Hardly what I would call a player with an injury history.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s his back, that has always got the risk of going out again, but he does not have an injury history…
by stranahanahan on Dec 11, 2008 2:46 PM PST up reply actions
He wasn't health in 2007 ...
and his performance stunk …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
yeah, his performance was for sure sub par
but i’m just saying 2 years in a row of poorer health don’t scream injury history….
by stranahanahan on Dec 11, 2008 3:40 PM PST up reply actions
Yersinia pestis should be avoided like back injuries
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
ya i was sorta strong on the words
strong health record when he was younger…but now not so much. I suppose the same thing could happen to Cabrera the next few season, but at least he doesn’t have any preexisting and substantial injuries going into next season (that we know about). I’d rather have a risky player on a 2 year contract and have him perform slightly less well than a risky player on a 4 year contract perform slightly better. I don’t think the difference between the two is going to make or break our season, and I think Cabrera is a safer option to sign. You can’t really look too the future as a point to sign Furcal (since we have no options) because we don’t know who is going to come available in trade, who in our system will actually blossom and who will suck, etc. etc. It’s not that I’m against getting Furcal, I’m just saying that Cabrera is NOT a bad option to go with for the next two years when you’re deciding between him and sticking with Crosby or signing Furcal.
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 11, 2008 6:47 PM PST up reply actions
How is he screwing the A's?
It’s not like he said he’d sign and then backed out. He’s just looking for the best deal.
by methodrampage on Dec 11, 2008 8:53 AM PST up reply actions
I agree -- we're all feeling our way in a weird market.
1— Furcal is one of premier FAs.
2 — sez he wants 4/50.
3 — A’s reasonably offer 4/36ish, not willing to overpay when there are other needs, economy is tanking and nobody else is bidding.
4 — he waits ‘til Meetings instead, some dust settles and he’s offered 2/25 — which beats hell outta 4/36ish.
5 — A’s prolly sweeten offer — 4/40, 3/34? No idea, but I’d guess Billy wouldn’t go above that vicinity, continue to work other options.
6 — Fickle Furkle flinger fathoms fate.
Based on that progression, I don’t fault anyone, including his agent who already has gotten him a better deal by waiting to the Meetings — although he lost some cred by trying to dredge up the Jays as serious suitors. Billy must know how JP thinks.
The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
by The Dogfather on Dec 11, 2008 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
This could be the first time in history somebody wants Cabrera because the OTHER GUY is not a "team player"
Actually, that’s hilarious.
by thejd44 on Dec 11, 2008 12:18 PM PST up reply actions
No kidding
Cabrera was notorious in Chicago for petitioning the official scorer to change his errors to hits (or to charge his errors to other players) so that he would be able to get max value on his free-agent contract. The guy is the ultimate “me-first” player.
by Uncle Charlie on Dec 11, 2008 12:52 PM PST up reply actions
I have no problem with that
Any team basing dollars on errors is retarded anyways. My problem with Cabrera is that he’s not a very good player.
I'll tell you this:
If Furcal finally does sign with the A’s, he’d better dazzle me.
Ray: "How fun is it to be up here playing in the Big Leagues?"
Gio: "It's *SUPER* fun!!!"
I'm also on the verge of not giving a shit.
"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."
-Charles Manson
by kaweahkaweah on Dec 11, 2008 9:51 AM PST up reply actions
the verge of *not*?
Sweet! You’ve got wireless internet in your bathroom?
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
No, but I'll keep you posted.
"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."
-Charles Manson
by kaweahkaweah on Dec 11, 2008 10:11 AM PST up reply actions
I donwanna know how this comes out.
MB needs no further ammunition.
The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
by The Dogfather on Dec 11, 2008 10:16 AM PST up reply actions
I'm sure it will all work out in the end.
"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."
-Charles Manson
by kaweahkaweah on Dec 11, 2008 11:25 AM PST up reply actions
I do
I’ve posted to AN from the john before.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Speaking of which ...
I have a strong signal everywhere in my place … and I do mean EVERYWHERE ….
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
If he really comes here and replaces BoCro, he'll have me at 'hello.'
One degree of separation from Billy Flynn.
The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
by The Dogfather on Dec 11, 2008 9:52 AM PST up reply actions
For those who "just dont give a shit anymore"
I think you’ve become too accustomed to BB’s style of dealing, which typically means you hear about the deal before you’ve even heard a rumor.
This is how negotiations go. Be patient. If the A’s land Furcal, the lineup is going to look SOLID. we can start dreaming of PLAYOFFS.
that is something to be excited about. not jaded.
Save Rajai Davis
especially if the Angels lose out on Tex
but we’ll have to worry about Texas, if they sign Sheets.
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 11, 2008 10:03 AM PST up reply actions
I'm not too concerned about the 5 starts he's gonna make...
Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.
or the bloated Texas ERA.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
well some of them will be against us....
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 11, 2008 1:52 PM PST up reply actions
Trade idea
The Braves look like they’ll be missing out on Burnett, and I could see them shifting their focus back to Peavy and getting a 3rd team involved to land SD a better pitching prospect. The Braves have also been rumored to have interest in Furcal if they can move Yunel Escobar. So, here we go. Be gentle.
San Diego gets: RHP Trevor Cahill, LHP Jo Jo Reyes, OF Gorkys Hernandez and RHP Andrew Bailey
Atlanta gets: RHP Jake Peavy
Oakland gets: SS Yunel Escobar
Im just wondering
if maybe this looks a little light on what the Padres would be getting back for Peavy. I’m a fan of Bailey and think he will be an above average major league reliever, or the Pad’s could try him out as a starter again and see where it goes. Bailey kind of reminds me of the Josh Outman situation when we aquired him last season for Blanton. Not sure where he’ll end up, but throws hard and has a chance to be a solid big league pitcher.
I dunno. Cahill is probably, what, a Top 15 prospect?
Gorkys Hernandez was rated a B- by Sickels
JoJo Reyes, I’m not sure about him, and I think Bailey can be a useful bullpen piece.
I mean, I’m not sure how much leverage SD has since Peavy has to approve any trade. Getting a pair of high ceiling guys isn’t bad.
Reyes is the Braves' version of Greg Smith
except that Reyes’ got the results that matched his performance, while Smith got those lucky, flukish results.
He was MUCH more dominant than Smith in the minors though and might have been rushed to the bigs (he was brought up in 2007 when the Braves’ rotation first imploded).
If I’m the Braves, I don’t do the deal. Escobar and Reyes maybe, but NOT Reyes, Gorkys, AND Escobar. If Escobar is included, other top prospects need to be kept out. The Braves are giving up more than they’re getting back, when you take into account salary/control.
Dude. This.
I'm not so sure
that the Braves are giving up too much. One highish upside guy in Escobar, a #3-4 upside starter, and a good but not great OF prospect doesn’t seem like too much for two years of one of the best pitchers in baseball. This would also enable the Braves to make a play on Furcal. Adding Peavy and Furcal would go a long ways to greatly improve that team.
I doubt the Padres would trade Escobar for Cahill. I wouldn't
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 11, 2008 3:56 PM PST up reply actions
I'd be inclined to keep Cahill and Anderson
everyone else in the organization is available (save, of course, the obvious ineligables; recent drafties and signings).
facepalm.jpg
+1
That’s how I see it. Cahill and Anderson could give the A’s a shot at true dominance (World Series level teams). Everyone else has to be available at the right price – those guys only for a ridiculous overbuy.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
this
plus i would have a really hard time figuring out which one i would want to give up of the two
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Dec 11, 2008 3:37 PM PST up reply actions
They're still prospects...
And could potentially go the route of… Dan Meyer. If you can get a young, proven, cheap SS. And yeah, I’m drooling over what they could do if they both reached their ceilings, but they’re still just prospects..
Is it just me?
Or is there a little bit too much fascination with Escobar?
UZR has him at about +5 with the glove (fSSS warning) … with the bat, he’s maybe +10 …
He’s never shown the ability to hit for much power, he’s no burner on the base paths — he has shown good control of the strike zone and his on base skills are good (but not great), but I would say his upside is no better than Rafael Furcal right now (slightly different skill sets, though) … I mean, I appreciate that he is young and lacks the health risks — but, and understand that this is coming from someone who is a big fan, I think Cahill is too large of a price to pay …
Also, keep in mind that while Escobar is under team control for 5 more years, he is going to be a Super-2, so he will get arbi for 4 of them …
I’d rather have Orlando Cabrera for two years, who should be nearly as good and then take my chances with finding a replacement after 2010 …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
And I think Cahill is going to blossom inside of 2 years ...
It’s not that Escobar isn’t better — he is better — I just don’t see him as being worth the price …
BTW, I also have no problem starting the year with Gregorio Petit as our starting SS …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
No need to defend keeping Cahill
I just wanted to use the bad Cab joke.
The monster at the end of this blog.
+2
I tend to agree with Devo here. Cahill appears to be too high a price. The only reason to do it is we are unbalanced right now and have too much pitching and too little hitting, allowing/necessitating us to make a trade where we get the worse end in order to fill our needs. This however, is not something ANers or Beane like to do.
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Dec 11, 2008 2:14 PM PST up reply actions
Escobar
has a career OPS+ of 109 to go along with above average SS defense over his first two big league seasons. He’s 26, so he’s likely to only improve over the next several seasons. To me, you can’t find a much better replacement at SS for 2009 and beyond. Next years SS FA market is even more thin then this years, and unless Cardenas sticks at short the A’s have nobody coming through the system that will be ready before 2011.
But that OPS+ was built on a flukish BABIP in 2007 ...
He’s young, but he’s not that young — and the fact that he’s already a pretty polished, quality player, means he kind of lacks upside. He already knows how to hit — he controls the strike zone well — so there isn’t that much room for improvement there.
He could get stronger, but if he bulks up too much, he’ll lose the ability to play SS, since, while he’s got a good glove, his speed is already a bit lacking for the position.
It’s hard to see him as better than .820 OPS (in a neutral park, lower in Oakland) while still maintaining the ability to play short …
Also, given his LD%, you could argue that he got lucky on his BABIP in 2008 as well …
Again, he’s a good player. I’d rather have him than either Furcal or Cabrera … just not at the expense of Cahill (or Anderson).
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
You're not adjusting for position there
+5+10+7.5 is an all-star talent. He’s in his prime. He’s cheap. He’s NOT a super-two (check out his service time at Cot’s if you want confirmation of this). And he’s ready when Matt Holliday is in town.
I agree that Furcal is a superior option. But if he is unavailable, I’d make the move for Escobar.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
There's a listing of Super-2 players on Cot's?
I can’t find it …
He has one year and 121 days of service time, usually the cut-off for Super-2 is around 115 days. He’s not a lock (and someone with access to a better database could come up with a much more accurate prediction) but, unless you have some specific reason to offer otherwise, I’m going with he’s more likely than not to have Super-2 status after 2009.
I don’t see how a +15 SS (relative to position) is better than about 10th in MLB (and I’m rounding up …)
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
I have to agree with you here
121 days of service time means it’s probable he’ll end up a Super-2.
The monster at the end of this blog.
The cutoff
is usually more like 130-140 days. At least that’s what a previous post of mine claims, citing unspecified links from the internets.
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
It can go lower, though
Cots lists players who could potentially be Super-2 eligible in their 2009 arbitration list. Ronny Cedeno has 121 extra service days and could qualify. The rule for Super-2 is the players with the top 17% (IIRC) of service time short of 3 full years. So it all depends on how many other players have less than 3 years service time.
The monster at the end of this blog.
It can
Among last year’s arb-eligible players, it looks like Casey Kotchman had the least service time with 2.144.
The year before it was Antonio Perez, Randy Flores, and Alex Rios (2.130).
2.121 is possible, but in most years would not qualify.
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
The solution is simple
One of us can look at all 30 rosters and come up with the service time of every player with more than 2 years and less than 3 years in the Show. Make a list in descending order and mark the top 17%. That group is you Super-2 list.
After you.
The monster at the end of this blog.
That's not a solution
since the original question was what the cutoff will be a year from now, when Escobar would putatively be eligible.
All I said was that the cutoff was usually around 130-140 days. Your insistence on disputing that is somewhat baffling.
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
Who's disputing anything? We're both saying 121 could qualify, it's certainly a possibility.
And I meant a year from now you could add up the service time of every big league player.
The monster at the end of this blog.
He's not +15 relative to position
The average shortstop sucks at hitting.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
You're right ... that wasn't written right, and, as you see below, I've recanted a bit ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
SSs who were better than +15 last year ...
Hanley Ramirez (50 BRAA, -1 UZR) +49
Jose Reyes (31, -1.5) 30
Jimmy Rollins (16, 11.4) +27
JJ Hardy (14, +11.6) +26
Umm … okay, so the SS position is really lousy right now … so, yeah … he would be an “All-Star” … but a pretty lousy one …
That said, a +15 estimate for Escobar is optimistic, I think, given his BABIP, relative to LD% …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Escobar has a pretty high GB% and a very low IF/F
So you would expect his BABIP to be a little higher than predicted by LD% alone.
Using LD, GB, and FB% his predicted BABIP in 2007 is about .339, and .317 in 2008, so he really hasn’t been all that lucky overall.
I'd rather not give up Cahill...
… but I’d probably do that deal. Yunel’s a good SS. Cahill is a top-notch prospect, but one at a position of relative depth.
by Uncle Charlie on Dec 11, 2008 1:10 PM PST up reply actions
Well there goes that idea....maybe-
Jake Peavy Rumors: Thursday
By Tim Dierkes [December 11 at 3:27pm CST]
3:27pm: MLB.com’s Mark Bowman says the Braves “won’t even think about renewing their pursuit of Peavy unless the talks are initiated by the Padres, who will no longer find a compensation package that includes Yunel Escobar.” Escobar is apparently off the table because the Braves no longer have Brent Lillibridge.
I could still see Escobar being traded considering the Braves have expressed interest in Furcal. Missing out on Burnett leaves them some cash to put towards Furcal.
Also
I doubt the Braves were all that high on Lillibridge considering his mediocre season, so to say Escobar is no longer available with Lillibridge gone is probably just some tough bargaining on the part of Braves’ management. They showed interest in Furcal before the traded Lillibridge so obviously they weren’t completely convinced Lillibridge would be the answer to Yunel’s departure.
except...
aren’t the Padres missing a SS too, now that they traded away Greene? I’d think they’d want to plug that hole. They already have some decent OF, though they’re looking at trading away one of them not named Giles (they’re trying to keep total payroll to less than $40 million due to the owner’s divorce, and California’s community property laws…).
by rollierollieOxenfree on Dec 11, 2008 9:43 PM PST up reply actions
I for for one remain hopeful
Dare I say, optimistic? I believe Furcal would be a real
I dream of Fremont and rainbows
MLB Trade Rumors sez...
The A’s have asked about Mark Derosa. Probably not much to this, but if he can still cut it at short, he’d be a good option for a few years. He’s put up some pretty good numbers the last few years, especially for a middle infielder.
"All your baserunner are belong to Greg Smith" ~ walk off bunt
Where the hell would they play him?
He’s really not an option at shortstop.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
probably misdirection by Beane for negotiating position with Furcal
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
I like DeRosa in general
No he’s not a SS but he’s a viable backup 3Bman as insurance for Chavez, and he’s an underrated (IMO) hitter with good pop from the right side. I’d like to see the A’s pick him up, but I also wouldn’t pencil him in as an every day player anywhere.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
DeRosa can't play SS
My guess is that they’d get him to play 1B, start Barton out at AAA, and move him to 3B when Chavez inevitably gets hurt.
Dude. This.
as a fellow bandwagoner, even I feel impelled to grab Grant from McC's "dead horse" animated gif
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
Allow me. I've got a few of my own.
There’s this one:
but I’ve also got this one, which I enjoy very much:
what keys make that smilie?
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Dec 11, 2008 3:40 PM PST up reply actions
so it takes 1 month to decide?
the agent has given 3 or 4 deadlines, which no one forced him to…now says a decision around christmas
so far in a couple since about 6 or 7 middle infielders have been signed or traded
you know what forget playing games with them…seems to me that A’s have been strung along for this ride which is why it was an uneventful winter meetings
Furcal signs with Dodgers
Per ESPN: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2251575
Furcal signs for 3/39 with Dodgers
Ooops...I'm a retard
Please disregard my last comment. This was from 2005…geez – I should actually look more carefully at what I am pulling up before I get excited and post it. Wow.
Oakland hopeful to sign Rickey
Per NYT: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=950DE5D7153AF93BA15752C1A96F948260
Finally, a true leadoff hitter.
Save Rajai Davis
IIRC that deal raised quite a stir
by being the first $3M/year contract…
"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL
Athletics’ Transfer to Kansas City Wins Final American League Approval
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
You. freaked. me. OUT.
And I even passed on the link/freaked a friend out before I read the rest of the comments! Argh.
If I don't comment on your comment how will you know you are completely wrong? -Rocktopus
This
"Insane Asylum Is Wrecked and Hundreds of Former Inmates Are Roaming About the Country " explains the existence of the Giant fan base.
"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."
-Charles Manson
by kaweahkaweah on Dec 11, 2008 6:40 PM PST up reply actions
That is an awesome headline.
If I don't comment on your comment how will you know you are completely wrong? -Rocktopus
So, Beane's still humming "I kissed Furcal and I liked it"
"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."
-Charles Manson
RJ prefers the Giants?
I especially like this quote from his agent (Emphasis Mine):
“Randy’s really interested,” one of his agents, Barry Meister, said Thursday, the final day of the winter meetings. "We made a check list of everything that’s important, and San Francisco checks off on every box. They’re in the National League. They’ll be competitive. They train in Arizona.
Really? Competitive? I guess the free agent spree of signing Renteria, Howry and Affeldt has helped them more then I realized. I know the NL West is bad, but C’mon they are still not close to the Dodgers or DBacks.
jj hardy for kurt suzuki
?
Stay calm. I'm a relatively respectable citizen -- a multiple felon, perhaps, but certainly not dangerous
No.
Then we’d have a black hole at catcher instead of shortstop. If there was a surplus of catching like in Texas, then yes.
Say something funny.
As recline on the comfort of my couch
with macbook on lap….This Furcal business is getting old and I do bet he is playing us for the Dodgers. But whatever, from my couch in December, well into the hot-stove season, I can almost soften towards a “what the heck, lets see if Crosby can come through one more time.”
alaska A residing in colorado.
I feel like we've been negotiating with Furcal
for 32 years.
{scribbles furiously into notepad about Crosby remark}
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
this does get old after awhile
reminds me of the old line “I have decided to make a decision….”
but sure, he can play it out. apprently the Dodgers have a 2 yr contract, but with some incentives. Colleti’s quoted as saying he wants the player to share some of the risk. So I wonder what the A’s contract looked like (other than a piece of paper with words on it), in terms of absorbing risk of injury, especially given their relucatance to break another DL record.
by rollierollieOxenfree on Dec 11, 2008 9:46 PM PST reply actions
Just saw this little blurb from John Shea at SF Chronicle
Looks like Beane is playing it ultra cool and professional with both Furcal and Giambi. Man, I want to sit down and play poker with Billy some day!
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/12/11/SP9214LJTK.DTL
In case that last link did not work here it is again. Dammit!
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/12/11/SP9214LJTK.DTL
Nice to see Beane keeping tabs on Furcal.
Of course Beane didn’t find it necessary to meet with Giambi’s agent personally in Vegas. There’s too much excitement to be busy with a player the A’s don’t even need at all that much.
And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic...
plus the quote for the lazies
The Dodgers are one of four teams with the A’s, Blue Jays and Royals continuing to push for Rafael Furcal. The market is believed to be at least $10 million to $12 million annually for at least three years, possibly four. The Blue Jays have said they will not go four years, and the Dodgers are even wavering on three. The A’s remain the frontrunners.
groundbreaking news, for sure
Save Rajai Davis
keep crosby, furcal is an expensive injury risk
beane is all about signing guys who are possibly undervalued because of injury histories, but furcal is commanding/demanding too much money to qualify as any sort of a bargain. i’d rather gamble on the (*cheap*) in-house potential of crosby, petit, etc. this year and then if spend money or prospects next year if nobody in our organization has turned the corner. that would also keep more money available for a pitcher or a 1B/DH type…
i might have missed this in another thread, but what about signing Bobby Abreu instead of Giambi? abreu appears, to the untrained eye, to draw walks, work the count, and hit for decent power and average. if he could take a pay cut, he seems like he could fit in nicely to the 1b/DH/occasional right field rotation. i’d like to keep him out of right as much as possible because once his cleats touch the warning track he’s a lock to miss a fly ball, but his bat could be nice. any thoughts on this from the resident sabermetricians?
dunno how willing he would be to leave the outfield....
A’s did try and trade for him a couple of years ago, his stats are remarkably consistent since he’s been in the league, but I dunno if we will start to see a decline in the coming years, he’ll be 35 when next season starts…
However, OBP numbers started to fall last 2 years, not significant, but enough to wonder…
by stranahanahan on Dec 12, 2008 7:44 AM PST up reply actions
What in-house potential?
The only “in-house” candidate I think is worth a damn is Petit, and the A’s pretty obviously disagree with me given their behavior toward him last season. Crosby and Pennington have all the potential of a dead battery.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
{puts Crosby and Pennington in a tube sock, knocks Furcal's agent out cold}
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
Not that kind of "potential"
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
crosby still has potential
he had a decent 2004 season for a rookie (obviously). take away the next 3 injury-shortened seasons and pretend 2008 happened right after 2004. in his 2nd full MLB season, his OBPS and HR numbers drop, but he also cut down on the Ks by a healthy margin with basically the same number of ABs. sophomore slumps are fairly common, and his was somewhat balanced by cutting the Ks down by 1/3. think about it: if last year really was his 2nd season, coming off the rookie year he had, would everybody have been calling for his head like they were? i think he would have gotten (deservedly) a little more slack, and there would be high expectations heading into his 3rd full MLB season.
out of curiousity, can somebody post his injury history? something for 2005-2007 showing how many games he played, then missed, then played, etc. there’s a good chance i’m misremembering, but i thought he was having a decent, improving, 2005 until he got hurt. from there it was on-again off-again with the DL, probably trying to rush back a few times, which will screw anybody up.
so coming off a full season last year which was basically reaclimating himself to being a full-time MLB player, i think he projects to probably have a decent year this year.
i especially like his ability over the last year to avoid the slider down and away
that’s certainly been a part of his game that has improved…..
oh, did you say Bobby Crosby???
by stranahanahan on Dec 12, 2008 2:11 PM PST up reply actions
Ibanez signs with Phillies
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3764268
I saw somewhere that the Angels were interested.
Anytime the Angels miss out on anyone decent, then that is a good thing. Now Ibanez wasn’t that good in the field but he was pretty handy with the bat. The only sad thing about this is that he’s not playing against them because he sure put up good numbers against them.
Shit.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
With the economy in deep recession
does BB abandon the notion of trying to re-sign Holliday to an extension?
"What do we do with Crosby? Well, in my neighborhood, trash goes out on Mondays." ~ Nico
Some more NOT BREAKING NEWS
Giants feel hopeful about Johnson, A’s about Furcal
If I don't comment on your comment how will you know you are completely wrong? -Rocktopus
Do we (ANers) feel Beane should pony up the rest of the dough
for Furcal? or would the $ be better spent for pitching and other hitters ? (i.e. Randy Johnson and Jason Giambi)
With the economy in deep recession, does BB abandon the notion of trying to re-sign Holliday to an extension?
"What do we do with Crosby? Well, in my neighborhood, trash goes out on Mondays." ~ Nico
What is there to explain?
I’m not saying that Holliday is gonna say yes to any potential extension but for the millionth time……why the fuck not?
:’O
Stark gets the situation right, in my opinion.
The A’s are still interested, but the popular theory among other clubs is that if Furcal wanted to be in Oakland, he’d already be there. And the Dodgers haven’t gone beyond two guaranteed years, plus a vesting option.
So an official of one team that checked in says that Furcal “seems like a guy who’s waiting for something to happen that hasn’t happened.” Our best guess is: He wants to return to L.A. But is he willing to give up a guaranteed year or two to do it? We might be about to find out.
It seems clear to me that the A's
are neither Furcal’s first nor third choice. Oakland is Furcal’s Plan B, no more no less. Sometimes “second choice” gets chosen; other times not.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Were you her second choice, or was she yours?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
He probably doesn't remember -
after all, it was 14 years ago.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
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