DLD 12/10/08 CONGRATS mikea edition
by mrrickyg on Dec 10, 2008 1:42 PM PST
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PrintI just received the following in my weekly Mechanics Institute Chess Club e-mail newsletter:
"1) Mechanics' Institute Chess Club News
Oleg Shakhnazorov has won the Fall Tuesday Night Marathon with a round to go by defeating Expert Evan Sandberg last night. Shakhnazorov has 8 from 9 with Expert Larry Snyder second at 6.5 followed by a large group on 6.
IM Ricardo DeGuman won the 38th Carroll Capps Memorial held November 8-9 with a score of 5.5 from 6 to take home the $400 first prize. George Sanguinetti was second at 5 in the 59 player field followed by Keith Vickers, Gary Huang, Evan Sandberg, Michael Lin and Nikunj Oja on 4.5.
Rapidly improving Michael As****** (name slighlty changed to protect the innocent) won the 27-player Jim Hurt Memorial Under 1800 this past weekend scoring 5 from 6 to pick up 150 rating points and $200."
Way to go!
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MLB Trade rumors says...
A’s met with Furcal again, and the 4 year deal we offered him before was $36 million over 4 years.
facepalm.jpg
i think they could settle on 4/44...
i can’t imagine $8 million over 4 years would stop the A’s from improving their team so much.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
eh its really only 2 wins a season assuming NO decline and/or injury
which is HIGHLY unlikely. He’s a moderate upgrade, but not one to get crazy over.
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 10, 2008 2:23 PM PST up reply actions
Emil Brown to Matt Holliday was a 6 win improvement.
2 wins is pretty significant when you’re talking about a single player.
Any truth to the rumor that not all 4 years were guaranteed?
I heard something about vesting options on ESPN this morning.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Based on PAs or Games Played or something?
I could see that, actually. It makes sense, because if Furcal gets hurt then we (Hi PT) don’t get stuck with a 30M+ albatross, but if Furcal is healthy he’ll get paid.
That's exactly why offering Furcal that could've made him balk...
I’m sure he wants 4 guaranteed years. If it’s true that LA offered him 2/25 then we might be in trouble. That’s $12.5 million per year and then he would only need 2/11 contract after that to equal what oakland paid him.
Unless Oakland guarantees 4 years and probably $44 million… we don’t get him.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
Furcal turned down 2/25 from the Dodgers to extend, didn't he?
For some reason I think that’s the same deal being reoffered.
not so sure
If he makes it healthy to year 3, he’s good. On a 2 year deal, if he doesn’t make it to year 3, he’s screwed.
In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!
Kraut, what an asshole.
"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."
-Charles Manson
by kaweahkaweah on Dec 10, 2008 2:37 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't feel the least bit sauer about that remark.
Which is to say, I laughed.
I'm here to talk about the past.
Let's get sour on some krauts!
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Dec 10, 2008 5:27 PM PST up reply actions
best movie
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
... featuring all of those guys wearing blue jackets?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
something like that
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
Good work -- you're now a pro!
Can I have $10?
The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
They just said on KNBR
That omar visquel might go to the Dodgers, and A’s have an interest in Kevin Correia?
please, someone tell me it’s the vicoden?
BB should send scouts to watch cricket players.
by alea iacta est on Dec 10, 2008 4:04 PM PST reply actions
Correia would be a great pickup
He has some nice stuff and is only 28. Why the hell not? He could very easily make our rotation.
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Dec 10, 2008 5:28 PM PST up reply actions
Correia would NOT make our rotation.
Duke, Eveland, Gallagher, Braden, and Outman can all outpitch him as a starter with ease.
If Correia is on the big league club, it is as a reliever.
Dude. This.
if we get into a bidding match over him
will it be the correian war?
BB should send scouts to watch cricket players.
by alea iacta est on Dec 10, 2008 7:32 PM PST up reply actions
I'll have to chick on that and get back to you
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
Attention and fame, a Correia, Correia, Correia...
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
but kevin correiarrrrgh?
BB should send scouts to watch cricket players.
by alea iacta est on Dec 10, 2008 4:25 PM PST reply actions
Huh...never realized he was on the Pirates.
"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL
Well, we know who 11-14 on BA's list are...
BA came out with their “”http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/column/2008/267274.html" >Best of the Rest" list today, which is the 11 best AL prospects who didn’t make their organization’s top 10 list. As a testament to how deep the A’s system is, 4 of the 11 players are from the A’s. Here they are, with a brief excerpt:
Josh Donaldson, c, Athletics: offensive catcher with power and plate discipline, and the former third baseman is making strides behind the plate.
Sean Doolittle, 1b, Athletics: capable of hitting for average with maybe 20 homer per season and Gold Glove-caliber defense.
Corey Brown, cf, Athletics: legitimate power to all fields, and while he may not hit for a high average, he runs well and has a chance to stay in center field.
Henry Rodriguez, rp, Athletics: sporadic command and iffy changeup make him more suited for the bullpen, where he could be a closer relying on his heater and hard slider.
by Danny on Dec 10, 2008 4:25 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Rob Neyer and Keith Law admitted to BBWAA
next year someone nominate Blez, Nico, BBG, Grove, Salb, MonkeyB
Let's have our Piazza and eat the Cust too - SPWC
the link doesn't work?
Call me stupid but… what is BBWAA?
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
Baseball Writers Association of America
They vote for post season awards and the hall of fame. (I think they need 10 years of membership before they get a ballot)
Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.
As soon as FJM closes shop...
…Bruce Jenkins spews a whole column of intergalactic fail all over the internets.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Odd i sort of agree with his general concept
That’s not to say you should ignore stats altogether. But if you’re following stats year-to-year, then odds are the guys you remember and who’s stats cause you to frequently notice them over the course of their entire career. Some of his individual player thoughts are a bit faaaaiiillll though.
In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!
But he argues that you should ignore stats in favor of your "gut"
and then, predictably, goes on to quote a few selected stats (like Jack Morris’s CGs, for which he gives the wrong number). And the rest is a bunch of idiotic crap about “presence” and advice like “ask his teammates”. He won’t vote for Raines because he was “a level down from Henderson”. Who the hell wasn’t? He won’t vote for any other LF from the 80s or 90s because of Rickey? It’s so lazy I’m amazed he worked up the energy to actually type the thing.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
He's not voting for Rickey either
because of the complete games. Plus he wasn’t as good as Rogers Hornsby.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Oh there's no doubt his article is crap
but the suggestion that “gut” can play a role and to a degree should play a role makes sense to me. It’s HIS gut that seems to suck.
In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!
read the book "Blink"? good book. great bit about a tennis guy that could tell, with amazing accuracy
if a serve was going to be in or out before it happened.
gut has its place in the world. just as wOBA does.
Save Rajai Davis
by oakinboston on Dec 10, 2008 10:27 PM PST up reply actions
There was a brief discussion of this
here.
I liked WaddellCanseco’s comment the best.
99 MPH with as much control as a deflating balloon - CurveballKing on H-Rod
Hey, I'm famous
Last night I suffered a crushing defeat to the latest in a string of old Russians after being way ahead for most of 3.5 hours… It was like losing the last three of a five game series… Would have been tied for second in a strong group….
The A's colors are green and gold.
My day of note in the chess world......
http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1507560
The A's colors are green and gold.
congratulations Mike
that is a tremendous honor.
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on Dec 10, 2008 10:41 PM PST up reply actions
I love chess
but admittedly would get killed by anyone that knows any kind of strategy.
I usually play against people that are not very good. My idea is just to hang back until they make mistakes and win by a war of attrition. I don’t even bother attacking until I feel supremely confident I have the numbers to back me up.
Not always, but that’s my basic strategy going into a game.
Although I do know the four-move checkmate thing (I have no idea what it’s called officially), so if available I always take it and feed on the adulation of the peons.
99 MPH with as much control as a deflating balloon - CurveballKing on H-Rod
Given my general aptitude for strategy games, many of which I'm quite good at,
I’m shockingly poor at chess. I mean, just terrible. I only win if the opponent knows nothing about how to play or makes some horrible blunder.
My classic play is the “whoops, didn’t see that one coming…” one-move back-row checkmate.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
In former Soviet Union, crushing defeat suffers *you*
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
JJ Putz traded to Mets.
To Mets:
JJ Putz (Seattle)
Jeremy Reed (Seattle)
Sean Green (Seattle)
To Indians:
Joe Smith (Mets)
Luis Valbuena (Seattle)
To Mariners:
Aaron Heilman (Mets)
Endy Chavez (Mets)
Mike Carp (Mets
Franklin Gutierrez (Indians)
So much for Street to the Mets
And they just got themselves an insta-bullpen. The funny part is they’ll probably make K-Rod their closer because they think he’s better (actually, Putz is), but that mistake will be to their benefit as the 8th inning is often higher leverage.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Except Putz, who was almost literally unhittable in 2007,
was pretty so-so in 2008. So until we know which Putz will show up (something I wonder every time I host a party), K-Rod might actually be the better one to count on.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Also, JJ is no longer the biggest Putz on his own team
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Hey! put(s) that punny attitude down
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I don't know anything about Joe Smith or Luis Valbuena
So can somebody explain the reasoning behind this for the Indians? I thought Gutierrez was a solid prospect?
Just head over to Let's Go Tribe for a Cleveland perspective
Smith is a solid bullpen arm, Valbuena an up and coming 2B who may be ready on Opening Day.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Valbuena's good
Good patience, some pop, solid defense. Sort of a more-advanced, lower-upside Adrian Cardenas.
Gutierrez is probably a bit better from an objective standpoint (his defensive stats are AMAZING) but they needed infielders more than outfielders, so I have no problem with the trade from their end.
BTW, the M’s also got a bunch of peripheral prospects from the Mets that aren’t listed there.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
My first thought:
but what about LL’s “Tuesdays with Sean Green”?
by whiteshoes40 on Dec 11, 2008 9:26 AM PST up reply actions
Wasn't sure where to put this, so DLD it is
Does someone want to explain the “Playoffs are a crapshoot” Theory?
It’s seems to me that a team that has a .625 win percentage (100 win team) will have a better shot than a team with a 53% win percentage (85 Wins).
If a team has three great pitchers, or even two (ala Shilling and Johnson), it seems that they have better odds than a team without that makeup (e.g a team w/ 5 good starters, but no great ones). These are all predictable things you can build for. So why is it a crapshoot again? The existence of upsets does not make playoff success random…there’s still statistical probability that good teams will win.
Sorry this was disorganized, but I’m not even sure how to construct a playoffs are NOT a crapshoot argument…it seems obvious that they aren’t.
Because its's a short series.
Even with two great pitchers (Schilling and Johnson) it’s quite possible that they both have a couple bad games in a row.
Even with NO great pitchers, it’s possible that a bunch of guys all get really hot at just the right time and then an 83 win Wild Card team wins the World Series.
Right, that's why upsets happen
but the upset is still lower probability than the favorite winning.
crapshoot means equal probability, which would make playoffs random.
So when people say its a crapshoot
do they mean it’s a crapshoot that the teams have control over?
Cuz that’s a strange definition of crapshoot.
It's just a metaphor, and not even a "theory"
Basically all it means is that the better/best team(s) is much less likely to win in the playoffs than in the regular season.
The A's colors are green and gold.
If you roll a die 5 times it wouldn't be too big a surprise if you rolled the same number all 5 times...
It also wouldn’t be a surprise if you rolled a different number each time. It would be a big surprise if you rolled it 162 times and it came up the same number every time. You gotta roll it a lot for the randomness to get diluted. That’s all the crapshoot reference means. If you only get 5 throws, random stuff has more of an effect.
"I'm going to take a camera crew and march into Billy Beane's office and demand to know why instituting his newfangled cost-saving measures means that the run manufacturing plant had to get shut down." FJM
See I get that
but playoff games are not a true coin flip. It’s not like better players suddenly morph into less good players.
The better team still is more likely to win. I GET that randomness is a big factor. In fact, the best teams might have only a 60-40 advantage in a 5 game series. But that’s still not a crapshoot, and you can do things to improve your playoff odds, so it’s still in your control.
What I don’t like is the pretending that the playoffs are out of your control entirely, which is how that argument often sounds. We lost? Oh well, its a crapshoot anyways…
yea, I admit it
I’m sorry if its annoying (i know that’s likely)
I’m working on correlating regular season run differential with playoff preformance right now…this for some reason is important to me…haha
I don't think anyone claims that skill goes out the window once the playoffs start...
But a team that’s, as you say, “built for the playoffs” can still get eliminated by a lesser team due to just a couple hickups of randomness. A stupid baserunning error and a bunt that stays fair instead of rolling foul will affect the outcome of even a 7-game series, while those same occurrences hardly even get notices over a whole season.
You gotta build your team to get to the playoffs, and then let them keep doing their thing into the playoffs, hoping stupid random shit doesn’t derail your train… not to mix metaphors.
"I'm going to take a camera crew and march into Billy Beane's office and demand to know why instituting his newfangled cost-saving measures means that the run manufacturing plant had to get shut down." FJM
that's why they say "crapshoot" and not "coin flip"
coin flip: binary outcome
crapshoot: rough bell curve distribution of outcomes
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
I've thought about it more
“Playoffs are a crapshoot” is the underlying premise of building a team to make the playoffs, and assuming that once you’re there, you have no real control.
I wonder if this is what made the A’s less likely to win in the playoffs during the last decade. Our strategy (patience) was very effective against league average starters, and wilted against top end pitching.
I don’t know if this theory is true, but if you buy that the playoffs are a crapshoot, then you don’t even investigate the possibility that its true
Another theory is that you need big-game pitchers who thrive on pressure. One theory might say that pitching under pressure is a skill…since people who can’t do it tighten up, overthrow, etc. Again, I don’t even defend this theory…I just think that the “crapshoot” mentality justifies not even investigating it.
All I’m saying is that we frequently call the playoffs a crapshoot, and think of that observation as some sort of wisdom from moneyball. I think that the theory is
1. False since better team have at least a better chance, even if upsets frequently happen
2. Counterproductive, since it procludes study of things that might actually be relevant to winning playoff games.
Anyone want to defend the crapshoot argument as true or useful or both?
by ohmangoAs on Dec 10, 2008 11:14 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I think people are taking the word crapshoot too literally.
In short, I view it as too short of a series – whether it’s 5 or 7 games – to predict with any level of accuracy what will happen.
I mean, how many experts picked the Phillies to win the WS once the postseason began last year?
ok
I see people deploy it when planning strategy. Like, when we acquire Holliday, “It’s good because we have a shot in ’09 for the playoffs, and getting there is enough since the playoffs are a crapshoot.”
While its true we have a shot anytime we make it to the playoffs, I think there are things teams can do to build for the playoffs. They may have only marginal value, but I think we’re just lazy when we call it a crapshoot.
I know I’m being semantic here, and you’re right that I’m holding you to an unfairly literal definition of crapshoot. But I just don’t like it when people use the phrase, since it’s not literally true, and it may lead to a sort of laziness in developing a team.
by ohmangoAs on Dec 10, 2008 11:33 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think it leads to laziness.
I mean, when Beane said that all he can do is build a team that can win as many games as possible, he’s right. It goes both ways – you can be the 116 win Mariners and get booted in the first round, or you can be the 83 win Cardinals and win the whole F’n thing. The most important thing about the postseason is getting there, because you can’t win it if you’re not playing in it.
Another way to say it is that...
the best team at the start of the playoffs has maybe a %15 chance of winning the World Series and the worst team probably around %10, with every other team somewhere in the middle. That’s pretty close to even odds and it means that it’s pretty unlikely that in any given season the best team will actually be crowned the best team.
by WhiteElephants on Dec 10, 2008 11:36 PM PST up reply actions
Sure, if that's true
then I see the argument.
Do you really think the odds vary only from 15% to 10%? I think I might crunch some numbers really quick for the last 10 years…
I’m sorry, but this interests me.
Don't be sorry
I’m interested to see what you come up with, though ten years might be too small a sample. What will be your qualifier for best team, win/loss or RS/RA?
by WhiteElephants on Dec 10, 2008 11:49 PM PST up reply actions
I'm doing run differential right now.
We’ll see how much data I collect…depends on how long it takes.
One could also from that derive...
that the best strategy might not necessarily be to put together the best team in any given season if it means sacrificing playoff berths in future seasons. I think the main point in Moneyball is that the best strategy seems to be: just get to the playoffs as often as possible.
by WhiteElephants on Dec 10, 2008 11:44 PM PST up reply actions
this makes sense.
I like this explanation. Thanks. Seriously, that might be the answer I wanted to hear (as opposed to OMG the worst teams always win so its random anyways!)
people also misunderstand the distribution of outcomes in a crapshoot
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
I'm fully aware of what a normal distribution is
Thanks for contributing.
the point is that a crapshoot is NOT a normal distribution
see other post…
Technically there are only two outcomes in a crapshoot...
and they’re nearly equal in probability. Not a normal distribution at all.
For that matter, the outcomes involved in a given roll of a pair of dice (without the funky rolling, re-rolling, side betting, etc of an actual craps game) aren’t normal either. They’re pyramid-shaped, rather than bell-curved.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
The normal distribution
is still relevant to the long-term behavior of all of those situations because of the Central Limit Theorem.
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
Anyone know where I can find run differentials
from past seasons?
You could just extrapolate it from W-L records...
oh, wait…
"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL
Has anybody seen ...
these fiber-optic hats?
Saw one at Sears last night and they look pretty cool with green and gold alternating lights flashing on the A’s logo.
In fact, it might make a nice Christmas present for, say, your favorite frozen dessert.
Peppermint
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