The A's '09 Starting First Baseman Will Be...
by notsellingjeans on Dec 1, 2008 9:37 PM PST
176 comments
The arbitration deadline has passed, and there were a few interesting A's-related developments:
a.) The team declined to offer arbitration to Frank Thomas and Alan Embree.
b.) The Diamondbacks and Phillies decided against offering Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell arbitration. Although both players were Type A free agents, any team may now sign them without yielding any of their own draft picks.
Does that make either player more attractive from your point of view? Is the team perhaps more likely to engage them? Neither player is a good defender, although they both have first-base experience and might be less of a liability at first base than they are in left field.
Please vote below!
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Granted it's
a. a major longshot
b. possibly unadvisable long-term
c. a defensive hit to take
but you have to like this lineup (in any order):
Sweeney – CF
Furcal – SS
Cust – DH
Holliday – LF
Burrell – 1B
Chavez – 3B
Suzuki – C
Buck – RF
Ellis – 2B
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 1, 2008 9:44 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
especially if you could persuade Burrell to come home for only 1-2 years
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on Dec 1, 2008 9:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The second round draft pick never really appealed to me, honestly
I’m just not a crazy fan of Dunn/Burrell, and the future ramifications such a signing may have.
I know that's a pisser, baby.
by Blicks on Dec 1, 2008 9:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
they say genius only strikes once
once: platoon cust, burrell, dunn at 3rd.
twice: ask if we can have tejada back
thrice: send crosby to AAA to work out that batting mechanics problem hes recently acquired.
four times: trade chavvy for two indian pitching prospects and a player to be named later (A-Rod)
five: celebrate with the bubbly after the As clinch the division, 60 games into the season.
by ErikFanClubPres on Dec 1, 2008 11:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If the A's go outsid to get their 1B, and decide not to go with Barton
then I think it comes down to a choice between Burrell and Dunn.
Burrell will be 32 next seasn and Dunn will be 29.
Burrell is Right Handed, Dunn is Left Handed.
Burrell’s OPS the last 3 years: .890, .902, .874, Homeruns: 29, 30, 33
Dunn’s OPS the last 3 years: .855, .940, .889/.901, Homeruns: 40, 40, 40
There are good arguments to be made for both. I know we need more Right Handed Bats, but Dunn has out produced Burrell, and is younger. Who would be better at First Base? Burrell has never played the position, Dunn has, but Dunn has been worse defensivly in LF. Burrell has pretty good numbers both both Righties and Lefties, while Dunn has a large platoon split, being much better against RHP than LHP.
So when it comes down to it, I think I’d go with whichever I could get. Whichever signs with us for the lowest $.
facepalm.jpg
by Zonis on Dec 1, 2008 9:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Burrell played 500 innings of first base his rookie year
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on Dec 1, 2008 9:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
which was how many decades ago ;)
facepalm.jpg
by Zonis on Dec 1, 2008 9:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I suppose an interesting question to add to your analysis
is, “How would Dunn or Burrell’s 1B defense compare to Giambi’s?” That’s kind of a barometer for minimal levels of acceptability/unacceptability.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 1, 2008 9:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You read my mind
I asked Keith Law and I trust his judgment. I’ll let you know when he gets back to me.
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on Dec 1, 2008 9:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I read your mind,
because I enjoy short stories.
Thank you! I’ll be here all week!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 1, 2008 9:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not our fault we can't read what you don't have
I bet you think Cindi’s really your friend, too.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Dec 1, 2008 9:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Me. I'm going to play first base.
Ray: "How fun is it to be up here playing in the Big Leagues?"
Gio: "It's *SUPER* fun!!!"
by Poppy on Dec 1, 2008 9:53 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
It's actually harder than second fiddle, just FYI
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 1, 2008 9:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No Mark Teixeira on the poll?!
Hey, I can still dream. He’s still a free agent as of this moment in time (to the best of my knowledge.)
Giambi seems more likely every passing day, for reasons I can’t quantify or explain (it’s just this feeling of dread I cannot shake.)
But I’d rather have Dunn than Giambi, or Burrell, and I honestly think Barton might need to get his confidence and groove back at AAA before returning to the MLB club to make good, so I’ll vote Dunn. Nick Johnson is still intriguing, but what are the odds he’s healthy enough to even be traded?
Dunn deal, in the context of this question.
by still bills kingdom on Dec 1, 2008 9:58 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
your second paragraph is probably going to be correct
a source i have (neighbor who works for the a’s) swears that the a’s are hoping that giambi is overvaluing himself and will sign for a lesser contract (a la mike piazza) in a couple weeks, once his cell phone doesn’t ring for a while.
i could definitely see this coming to fruition.
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Dec 2, 2008 12:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting inside info there, thanks for sharing.
I could definitely see that happening too; the only other thing I’ve heard, and I think PT has stated it previously a couple times around here, is that the Rays are supposedly in pursuit of the Giambino for DH duties (or at least seriously kicking the tires and considering it.)
All in all, if the A’s are successful in signing Furcal (which I grow more leery of with each passing day, as I suspect he and his agent are waiting around for a team he really prefers to sign with to make a move and clear space to offer him a deal) then I think Giambi will be the next piece of the puzzle, but only if he is willing to take a 2 year deal with maybe a 3rd year option and at a reasonable (your Piazza contract sounds about right for yearly value) price.
If it comes to pass, I’ll just be hoping for a Giambi renaissance and that his defense at 1B isn’t mind-numbingly awful. Who knows? Maybe a return to Oakland will do him good… after all, as Yogi Berra said, “baseball is 90% mental- the other half is physical…”
by still bills kingdom on Dec 2, 2008 9:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Mmmm thanks for info
I’m somewhat warming up to Giambino, I’d prefer him on a 1 year deal with an option over say… Dunn/Burrell on 2+ years, and Giambi will be cheaper.
They’ll all suck at defense though, which is what I don’t like.
I wonder if Spartacust could play some 1B. He might be an improvement over Giambi/Dunn/Burrell at 1B.
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 2, 2008 9:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And the position shuffle pipe dreams continue
Cust cannot play 1B, it has been tried before.
Dunn, on a two year deal (which I can’t imagine he’d sign) would be MUCH better than Giambi on a one year deal (which I can’t imagine he’d sign).
My analysis is that Giambi is likely to want 2-3 years, at 5+ per year. That contract makes no sense for the A’s (Insert my repetitive arguments here). Dunn probably wants 4-6 years, and unless he’s extremely expensive would be worth it. The issue is that I’d much rather have Holliday than Dunn and I don’t see how we can have both. Pre-Holliday, Dunn was my FA target. Now, I think Furcal makes the most sense followed by RJ, Penny, and no signings.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 10:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh I agree with avoiding Giambi/Dunn/Burrell as a whole. That's my ideal.
The market might force Giambino into a 1 year deal. There are many more desirable FA DH types on the market, and not many teams need one, and now that Dunn/Burrell/Abreu don’t cost draft picks, that makes Giambi even less appealing. I could imagine Giambi settling for one with an option, but not Dunn settling for two.
I’m just tossing out hypotheticals on the whole “Cust to 1B” thing.
Furcal should be the #1 target IMO. I agree.
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 2, 2008 10:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Why wasn't Holliday your FA target pre-Holliday?
If you catch my drift.
The trade really— really— is not going to make him magically love Oakland. He’s going to cost the bloody same as he did before the A’s dealt for him.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 2, 2008 10:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Honestly, I didn't think about signing Holliday until the A's traded for him
It just never crossed my mind. I was strongly against the trade until a good bit of time after the trade went down.
Holliday’s going to cost the same, you’re right. I’d still like to target him.
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 2, 2008 11:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Because Holliday wasn't a FA
I wanted the A’s to sign Dunn this off-season.
I reject the notion that there is no chance the A’s could extend Holliday, and imagine that if we do it would involve bumping his 2009 salary.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 11:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't say the A's have no chance of extending Holliday
I said the A’s chances of re-signing Holliday now are practically identical to what their chances of signing him next offseason would have been had they not made the trade.
And why would you want the A’s to sign a worse player for only slightly less money money going into a less competitive season, when in all likelihood the team will be better entering the 2010 season?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 2, 2008 11:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I strongly disagree
Oakland wouldn’t have even been on Holliday’s map if he had spent ’09 in Colorado.
Now the A’s are at least a candidate to sign him. He’ll have some familiarity, and if he likes it here, there will be a chance of re-signing him.
Anyone who has ever moved to a terrible place, or changed jobs and found their new one to be undesirable, knows the benefits of “the known” vs. “the unknown”.
And signing Dunn might actually help the A’s sign Holliday long-term. Holliday might want to be surrounded by an expensive, good hitter or two.
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on Dec 2, 2008 11:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not if it costs him $8 million off his annual paycheck he won't
The A’s can’t afford Dunn and Holliday. Not unless they finagle a trade for Yunel Escobar or something. They certainly can’t afford Dunn, Holliday and Furcal.
As for your other point, if he was a normal player, I would agree with you. Holliday is not a normal player— he is represented by Scott Boras. Scott Boras clients do not re-sign with their teams unless they receive ridiculously favorable offers that outweigh anything they are likely to receive on the market (Lohse, A-Rod).
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 2, 2008 12:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with the first paragraph
Which is why now I don’t want Dunn.
I agree with NSJ about him playing for a year helping him decide. Even if he does test the market, a year of positive experiences (and one of our strengths seems to be clubhouse atmosphere) may help him choose us instead of holding out for other teams (as Furcal seems to be doing).
I’m with Blicks as far as the “not on my radar” as the explanation for wanting to sign Dunn now. Holliday is not the kind of player we usually get to have. Now, however, we have him so keeping him is more likely than it was pre-trade.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 12:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You can't really make those blanket statements.
Scott Boras influences clients, and makes suggestions. They don’t always follow him lock step.
Carlos Pena signed an extension with Tampa Bay, and he’s a Boras client. Greg Maddux turned down more money from the Yankees to become a Brave.
The point is, ulitimately Matt Holliday will decide his own fate. And he’s not Kyle Lohse, and he’s not A-Rod. He really couldn’t be much different than those two – all they have in common is their agent.
And none of us are in a place to determine what the A’s can “afford”. It’s the most nebulous aspect of intelligent fandom. You can analyze a player’s defense, you can analyze prospects, you can look at stats. But I don’t much stock in an opinion of what the A’s can “afford”. We don’t see the books, we don’t know the full picture of the A’s revenue and expenses. (Or, their willingness to lower their profit margin in the short-term). We can spitball, we can make intelligent guesses, we can look at previous years’ major league payrolls…but a blanket statement like, “The A’s can’t afford Dunn and Holliday” doesn’t make much sense.
We don’t have the information to say one way or the other.
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on Dec 2, 2008 2:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I tend to avoid putting unnecessary disclaimers in front of every sentence
but if you force me to, I will: Based on historical patterns of what the A’s have spent in prior seasons and a reasonable estimation of the team’s current revenue… they can’t afford to sign Holliday, Furcal and Dunn.
On Carlos Pena: a. He was not a free agent when he signed his extension with Tampa Bay, and b. any agent worth a damn would have advised him to take that contract.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 2, 2008 2:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
PT per you comments above. I am now just waiting for Beane to do the deal of the Century for Escobar.
And it won’t cost us any of our top 20 prospects.
This is my dream and I am keeping it ;-)
“Of all the things I’ve lost, I miss my mind the most.”
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
by Eastbayjim on Dec 2, 2008 3:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If three guys on the team make a combined $55M annual,
and every other player on the roster is a 0-3 service time guy, it’s still a sub-$75M payroll team. You could have a few players in their first year of arbitration, and it’s still an $80M payroll team. And that’s with three expensive, top-tier FAs (Furcal, Dunn, Holliday).
It is possible. It just requires imagination, and constant trading of assets when they become valuable/expensive.
There are enough pitchers in the system right now that Beane could potentially have an entire staff of $400K guys within a few years, so long as he continually trades off assets in the late arb years (like he did with Street, or the back end of Haren’s deal).
Again, it is possible. It just requires more imagination and creativity than is typically used in constructing an ML roster.
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on Dec 2, 2008 4:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I still hold a modicum of optimism with the Boras factor
a little more than four years ago, people said that a team would never win a seven-game series when trailing 3-0. And I’d love to see what happens with Beane and Boras in the same room.
"This is Rickey, calling on behalf of Rickey."
by scatterbrian on Dec 2, 2008 3:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Overall
I have read where Holliday says winning is more important to him than a huge contract. Dont know much about Holliday, but have always been a big fan because I think he plays the game the right way. Anyways do we take him at his word for this and if the A’s do indeed have a winning playoff type season and have a core of guys Holliday views as solid, for the course of the contract he would potentially sign, do we think he would take a slight pay cut and stay because he has said in the past hed rather win?
by yawedout21 on Dec 2, 2008 6:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I find it safer to simply never take anyone who says something that self-serving at their word
Call me a cynic.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 2, 2008 7:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Everyone says it, no one means it.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 7:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So it's kind of like
“I’ll call you”?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 2, 2008 9:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting scenario:
There’s at least a small chance that the A’s and Giants could be bidding over two key FAs this off-season (Furcal and Burrell).
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on Dec 1, 2008 10:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
And Randy Johnson???
We all know what Sabean thinks of 40+ year-olds.
by ervance on Dec 1, 2008 10:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
good point
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on Dec 1, 2008 10:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That would pretty much max out the A's budget in 2009
And it would make it nearly impossible to hang on to Holliday after the season. I think I’d rather pay $5 million more annual for Holliday than Burrell.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Dec 1, 2008 10:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
they dont sign holliday long term imo
burrell or dunn still gives you a power bat beyond 09 to replace some of the production when holliday leaves or its back to cust and who knows
by Asfan4ever723 on Dec 1, 2008 10:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Why not?
Burrell might come at a bargain basement price of under $15 million annual, Dunn is probably a lock on that number. Why not drop an extra $5 million on Holliday?
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Dec 1, 2008 10:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
Holliday is a better all around player than those two guys for sure…You make a great point however I dont think the A’s view Dunn or Burrell as an option right now. I think that they may decide to try and work something out with Holliday long term. Your point is good though
by yawedout21 on Dec 2, 2008 6:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
See my post above this one - I'd be interested in your comments
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 2, 2008 6:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The one titled "A Bird In The Hand..."
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 2, 2008 9:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So if we sign either Dunn or Burrell then Barton is out for at least 3 years?
I seriously doubt either would sign for less than 3 years which means you are giving up on Barton. And paying $15 to $18 mil a year to do that.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
by Eastbayjim on Dec 1, 2008 10:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How do you know whether he'll be able to handle the position defensively?
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 1, 2008 11:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sigh
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 10:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
{brings bandwagon to skidding stop}
{backs up, runs over nevermoor, brings bandwagon to another skidding stop, backs up again so monkeyball can fling stuff at nevermoor, leaves}
by mikev on Dec 2, 2008 10:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
{converts to 3B}
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 11:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
{convinces A's to sign nevermoor}
Save Rajai Davis
by oakinboston on Dec 2, 2008 12:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
{commits several errors/game}
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 12:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
< admires nevermoor's grit >
"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL
by oblique on Dec 2, 2008 12:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So, you take Barton from first because he didn't produce and place him at 3rd where he sucked in AAA and still won't produce up to 3B standards?
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
by Eastbayjim on Dec 2, 2008 5:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He sucked at 1st in AAA, too.
He was better than average at 1B in the majors.
He’s got a good arm as a former catcher, and it’s not uncommon for catchers to switch to third base.
Besides, if you’re convinced that Barton isn’t going to improve offensively, why the hell leave him at first base, where standards for being average are even higher than at 3rd?
Basically I’ve yet to see any reason for him NOT to try third base again. Something happened last season and his defense got a lot better than scouting reports said it was — who knows, maybe he actually started listening to coaches or something because he realized that playing at the MLB level is kinda hard compared to the minors?
Not only that, but Barton to 3rd actually makes a LOT of sense for the organization. There’s nothing as far as 3B prospects in the system, but there are Doolittle, Carter, and Donaldson on the 1B/DH horizon. Unless you think that Barton is destined to be trade bait — or a bust — there’s going to have to be some sort of move, whether it’s him or one of the other prospects.
by mikev on Dec 2, 2008 9:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
unless Carter to 3b works muuaaaaaaahahahahaha!
also donaldson at 3b seems to be plausible for all the same reasons you listed.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Dec 2, 2008 3:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Barton's arm was one of the reasons he was converted from C to 1B
Sickels from 12/04:
Defense is another issue. Barton is a big guy, not fat, but not especially athletic or mobile. His arm is OK, but his release is slow and he is not very good at controlling the running game and probably never will be. He has some leadership skills with pitchers, but he doesn’t block pitches especially well. This is not for lack of effort; his work ethic is excellent. But athletically, he is simply stretched at catcher. He doesn’t run well enough to be an outfielder, and will probably end up at first base eventually.
"This is Rickey, calling on behalf of Rickey."
by scatterbrian on Dec 2, 2008 3:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
OK, that was from 4 years ago when he was 18.
His arm seemed just fine this year, didn’t it?
by mikev on Dec 2, 2008 5:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
His arm seemed just fine ...
every time he had to throw across the diamond? Which was how often from 1B?
The point is that 3B or C have farther to throw, right?
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on Dec 2, 2008 10:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
obviously the distance is the same
the frequency of throws is the main difference. But third base is a just a much harder position to play. Hot corner and all…
"I specifically don't want to spend my career collecting paychecks and having October off. I want to be in a situation where I feel like I can make the postseason every year, not only if the perfect storm comes together. I am not saying Colorado can't do that. But approaching free agency and making decisions about being somewhere long term, you have to consider more than money. The money gets to the point, it's a lot either way." - Matt Holliday
by scatterbrian on Dec 3, 2008 12:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree but it will take awhile for him in AAA to get up to speed at 3B and hopefully he will regain his stroke at the same time
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
by Eastbayjim on Dec 2, 2008 3:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Barton is only out if we sign Holliday to an extension
If we can somehow end up with Holliday and Dunn/Burrell - then yeah Barton becomes a trade chip. However, if Holliday does not come back, then Dunn/Burrell slide to LF and Barton comes back at 1B.
It is mostly moot anyway, as I think we only sign Dunn/Burrell if they come at a discount. Since a discount is less likely to happen now that they do not cost draft picks, I see Barton very much in our future (maybe after a 1 year Giambi experiment this year).
by AsFanInLA on Dec 2, 2008 9:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
See below for my take on Burrell in LF
which applies similarly to Dunn, although he’s more Laurel and Hardy than wounded hippo.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 2, 2008 10:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I’m only willing to sign a 1B if every plausible option at SS and 5th starter is off the market (or Holliday refuses to even discuss playing for the A’s beyond 2009, which is a possibility)
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 1, 2008 10:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hard to imagine Beane or Geren pissing off Holliday this early in the season...
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Dec 1, 2008 10:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I REALLY would like Holliday after the 2009 season plz
or at least a fair shot at getting him.
Without doing something stupid like skimping on arbitration/skimping on the draft.
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 1, 2008 10:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This.
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 1, 2008 10:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
OK, so I figured "FTW" out all by myself, but I'm at a loss here...
Please explain this “this”.
"I'm going to take a camera crew and march into Billy Beane's office and demand to know why instituting his newfangled cost-saving measures means that the run manufacturing plant had to get shut down." FJM
by Elvez on Dec 2, 2008 2:35 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I still don't understand FTW
I heard that it’s an alteration of WTF, and I know what WTF means. But it still doesn’t make sense when it’s just tagged on to the end of a noun phrase with no punctuation. When I see that, I think “WTF does that mean?”
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on Dec 2, 2008 10:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
FTW = for the win
As in “Beane traded Crosby for a bag of baseballs, Beane ftw!”
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 3, 2008 1:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Giants really really really really really really shouldn't sign Burrell
Really.
He navigates LF with the speed of a wounded hippo.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 1, 2008 10:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't that pretty fast?
A hippo can run up to 25 mph on land.
Eveland rocks! Eveland rocks! Somewhere Drew Carey just smiled.
by miggyk2 on Dec 1, 2008 10:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not if it’s wounded…
Assume it’s an amputee or something.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 1, 2008 11:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wearing Prince Fielder?
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 1, 2008 11:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
are you forgetting the previous LF?
He moved about as slow as a dead hippo…The guy was a joke in his last couple years in left. HORRIBLE AT DEFENSE, I would assume they will forgive defensive transgressions(or others) if Burrell could hit. In my opinion he is an OK hitter nothing all that special
by yawedout21 on Dec 2, 2008 6:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd love for the A's to sign one of those 3 guys before Teixiera lands somewhere
I have a bad feeling that, if the Angels miss out on Tex and Sabathia, they’ll be ready to throw around stupid money to Burrell or Dunn or Giambi, and there will be no sound bargains to be found anymore on the 1b market.
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on Dec 1, 2008 10:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I like the idea of the Angels throwing around stupid money.
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 1, 2008 10:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Nothing would make me happier than the Angels signing Burrell to a three-year deal.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on Dec 1, 2008 10:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Screw 2, I'd like him locked up for the next 4 plz.
And Jon Garland signed to a long-term extension.
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 1, 2008 10:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
options
a. furcal/dunn
b. renteria/burrell
c. crosby/barton
by Asfan4ever723 on Dec 1, 2008 10:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
no to b or c, and maybe not even a
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Dec 2, 2008 12:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
d. furcal/barton
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 10:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm cool with that
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Dec 2, 2008 10:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Burrell
I picked him pretty much because he’s right-handed.
1-Furcal SS
2-Buck RF
3-Cust DH
4-Holliday LF
5-Burrell 1B
6-Chavez 3B
7-Suzuki C
8-Ellis 2B
9-Sweeney CF
That’s an offense that can get us to the post-season.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
by brenarlo on Dec 1, 2008 10:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I'd take Dunn
because he’s the better hitter.
But I honestly doubt the money is worth it with either of them. Assuming it doesn’t affect Furcal at all, it still handicaps the A’s with Holliday.
RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.
by walk off bunt on Dec 1, 2008 10:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Barton
And I think he’ll be pretty damn good, too.
Burrell and Dunn are a waste of time, as far as I’m concerned. They will require a lengthy and expensive commitment, are a liability defensively and on the basepaths, and aren’t especially worth the years that will be involved. They also block a position that’s one of our organizational strengths.
I’d rather buy a pitcher if being competitive next year is the goal.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on Dec 1, 2008 10:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Actually,if you've been following the Top Prospect List
The A’s really only have 2 1B Options in the minors; Doolitte and Carter, and Carter is currently penciled in at 3B.
Right now, the organizational strength is Starting Pitching, Relief Pitching, Center field and Middle Infield (shockingly enough). Corner Infield is actually not one of the organization’s strengths anymore.
facepalm.jpg
by Zonis on Dec 1, 2008 10:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
When you say Middle Infield, you really mean 2nd base
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Dec 1, 2008 10:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cardenas, Weeks, Coleman, Christian, Leyja
thats 5
facepalm.jpg
by Zonis on Dec 2, 2008 12:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
2 legit prospects in the minors is more than most teams
and it would become 3 if you sent Barton back down.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 1, 2008 11:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Doolittle and Carter are our best pure hitting prospects
and I’m counting Barton as a strength, last year notwithstanding. That’s depth.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on Dec 3, 2008 4:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
STRONGLY AGREE
The more I consider what the A’s might do the more I am interested to see what Barton could do with a better offense around him. Look lets assume the A’s sign Furcal and the lineup looks somethign like:
1. Furcal SS
2. Sweeney CF
3. Cust DH
4. Holliday LF
5. Chavez 3B- Hope he’s healthy
6. Ellis 2B- could hit seventh? I dunno actually probably should put him at seven
7. Barton 1B
8.Suzuki- C
9. Buck LF- IF he turns back into 07 buck he is an awesome option at 9 hitter but could move up
I am not opposed to the idea of signing someone on the cheap in case Barton doesnt hit, maybe a Giambi because then if Giambi struggles or Barton Struggles you can play the one who is hitting better. Not opposed to maybe a lower level guy or waiting til the season starts to possibly pursue a trade. I vote Nick Johnson though if we have to replace Barton and I vote wait as long as possible to make the trade. Like to see Barton given a chance
by yawedout21 on Dec 2, 2008 6:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that Nick Johnson would be the best,
because you have to pay Giambi a lot not to play (if Barton is good) or to play bad defense (if Barton is bad), whereas Johnson can be played “until he drops” – to be replaced by Barton if and when.
In your lineup, though, I’d bat Suzuki 6th.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 2, 2008 9:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yea
6-9 in the A’s lineup seems everchanging and I think a lot of teams experience this because some of those bottom guys dont play everyday. If Johnson is in the fold he definitely probably would hit sixth id imagine or seventh, sometimes the a’s fall in love with the Left/Right thing
by yawedout21 on Dec 3, 2008 12:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
barton for beaen's man crush milledge - yes
for nick johnson – no
1B | Daric Barton | Oakland Athletics | Fantasy
Chico Harlan, of The Washington Post, reports the Oakland Athletics appear unwilling to part ways with 1B Daric Barton. The Washington Nationals may ask for Barton in a potential trade for 1B Nick Johnson.
by Asfan4ever723 on Dec 1, 2008 10:44 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Oh fuck no. No no no no.
Nick Johnson shouldn’t cost more than a bag of balls/Herrera/Robnett/some fringe AAAA guy.
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 1, 2008 10:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No worries, Harlan doesn't know what the fuck he's talking about
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Dec 1, 2008 10:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
For 5.5 million? I'd like to keep my baseballs, thanks.
Oakland’d be doing them enough of a favor by just eating the contract.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 1, 2008 11:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Spitballs, then.
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 1, 2008 11:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Is the Nats want Barton, OK.. straight up for Zimmerman
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
by Eastbayjim on Dec 1, 2008 10:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Done deal.
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 1, 2008 11:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If we're going to upgrade 1b...
I’d rather not spend a key portion of our budget on it. We have Barton, Doolittle, and Carter at the position. One of them is bound to stick at the position and be league average. Which all leads me to the conclusion that either we upgrade the position for only 2009, and not using many of our resources, or we leave Barton at the position. So of Giambi, Dunn, and Burrell, that leaves only Giambi. Despite the lack of buzz surrounding Dunn and Burrell, neither is likely to sign for less than 4 years or less than 13 million a year. Giambi could however sign for 2-3 years and 7-10 million a year.
Nick Johnson has very little value. He’s a guy who’s played 38 games in the last two years and costs 5.5 million. Unless it costs the A’s literally nothing (well maybe Robnett/Gray), I wouldn’t trade for Johnson. If we’re looking to trade, I’d rather target a guy like Adam LaRoche (average fielder, 123 OPS+, 1 yr of club control on a non-competing team), than Nick Johnson.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Dec 1, 2008 11:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
This.
If the A’s can get Johnson for a bag of balls/fringey guy, we should stay far, far away from him.
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 1, 2008 11:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If the A's CAN'T get Johnson for a bag of balls, I mean.
+late typo fix+
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 2, 2008 11:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What if the A's can't get Furcal
Would it be an option to keep Crosby and plug Dunn or Burrell in at 1st?
Any similarity between my spelling and that deemed correct, is pureley accidental.
by Dalesman on Dec 2, 2008 3:39 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
If the A's can't get Furcal I think keeping Crosby is the only option that makes sense
I don’t think I’d necessarily spend the money on Dunn/Burrell though. Better to use it for RJ, or even Lowe.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 10:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Lowe actually makes some decent sense
granted he’s not too expensive/asks for too many years.
He’s a groundball pitcher. The A’s have awesome infield defense, ala Mark Ellis. Lowe could be several shades of dominant.
A couple of the A’s young pitchers could become trade bait, obviously not Anderson/Cahill though.
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 2, 2008 10:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't act so surprised
I think Lowe would be cheaper than Furcal (and would help the team slightly less because Crosby sucks). If Furcal is out of the picture, though, Lowe is likely to have several more seriously good years ahead of him.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 11:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Why not both?
Furcal and Lowe?
Granted, I’d probably rather have Brad Penny on a 1 year incentive based contract, but Lowe on a 2 or 3 year deal would be okay as well.
I damn sure would rather give $10M to Lowe for 2009 than to Giambi.
by mikev on Dec 2, 2008 11:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Because then it becomes very unlikely we can sign Holliday
And Holliday > Lowe.
I damn sure would rather give $10M to almost anyone who costs that much to sign than to Giambi.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 12:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Uh...
Even if we don’t sign Lowe (or anyone for that matter), you do realize that it STILL is very unlikely that we can sign Holliday?
Way I see it, if we don’t sign anybody, we have a 1% chance of signing Holliday.
If we sign somebody, we have a .5% chance of signing Holliday.
"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 2, 2008 12:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Because the A's do have the payroll room for a big contract
Chavez will be off the books before the young players hit arbitration, so that balances out.
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 2, 2008 12:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So?
That doesn’t mean they’ll be willing to pay Holliday (or any one player) 22+ million annually for 6 or so years.
I’d like to see it happen, but let’s face it, the odds of that happening are small (and that’s understating it).
"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 2, 2008 12:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And you base this (especially the pseudo-specific percentages) on what exactly?
I would have said it was very unlikely we trade for Holliday too.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 2:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm basing my stance on the same thing you're basing your stance on.
Assumption.
I’m assuming the A’s won’t cough up 22 million dollars annually for six years for one player.
You’re assuming that the A’s have enough payroll room for that money, that they’re going to actually spend that money, and furthermore, that they’re going to concentrate all that money into one player (Holliday).
Now let me ask you: honestly, which scenario is more likely?
"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 2, 2008 2:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Honestly, I don't see us making this trade to let Holliday walk
I.e. either a trade or re-signing.
I’m assuming the A’s have enough money based on Wolff’s statement that they can do $70M/year
I’m assuming they’ll actually spend that money because they have a new stadium coming up, and Holliday is exactly the kind of franchise player you want.
I’m assuming they’ll consider concentrating a lot of money into one player because they have so many cheap players and they traded for him in the first place.
Why are you making your assumption? Why do you think your assumption is so strong as to be 99% – 99.5% likely?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 2:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There could be many reasons why the A's traded for Holliday in the first place
They could’ve felt the need to boost attendance. They could’ve felt that they were getting a deal too good to turn down. They could’ve saw a considerable chance that the A’s could compete this year, etc. Who knows. Fact is, neither of us know. All I’m saying is that there can be a lot of reasons for why the A’s traded for Holliday for this year (and this year alone). It’s not as simple as “Oh the A’s traded for Holliday, therefore, they MUST intend to resign him.”
And, I’m assuming that even if the A’s really, truly intend on having a 70, 80 million dollar payroll, they’ll decide to spread that investment out over a couple of really good players (rather than one franchise player). I assume that the A’s feel like this lessens the risk of having one big contract potentially crippling the team. Because even though Matt Holliday might currently worth the 20+ million he’d earn annually, and even though he might seem as sure as a sure thing as possible, there’s still no telling what might go wrong in that long of an investment. See Chavez, Eric.
Granted, I only used the 1% chance of resigning Holliday as hyperbole to illustrate how small the chances of resigning him are (and how signing other FAs this year have a negligible affect on the chances of resigning him). But hey, everyone on this site uses hyperbole ;)
"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 2, 2008 3:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure but
I think they might have some intention because of the fact that mr. Chavez does come of the books in the next 2 years i believe(not positive and dont care to look) You remove his rather large contract and it makes 22 million per year more reasonable. Again I am not sure but I would say the A’s plan to at least try and resign him and again I think that if the A’s prove to Holliday they are committed to winning he will take some type of small pay cut maybe 20 million i dunno. I have just read where Holliday has said winning is more important than money, i get his point cuz what would you rather have a chance to make the playoffs every year and make 15 million or make 20 million and not sniff the playoffs. Remember 15 mil is a lot of money especially if you are halfway decent with your money, not to mention endorsements etc. I am truly surprised more players dont covet winning.
by yawedout21 on Dec 2, 2008 7:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There is no way Holliday can be had for 15 million a year
He wouldn’t take a deal like that even if it meant playing on the best team in the history of MLB.
Also, it’s downright naiive to believe an athlete when he makes the “winning is more important than money” comment.
And even if he does truly covet winning over money, then what makes you think he’ll sign a below market deal with the A’s? Why not just sign a below market contract with say, the Red Sox?
"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 2, 2008 8:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Lowe would not be cheaper than Furcal.
I don’t see why DLowe wouldn’t get 4/60.
As soon as CC is off the market, someone will snatch up Lowe for a huge contract. I don’t see him getting less than 14-15MM/yr. Yes, that could get ugly into his age 38-39+ seasons, but he’s very effective.
And he’s a Scott Boras client.
Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.
by Blicks on Dec 2, 2008 12:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I suppose we'll have to see
Either way I think their salaries are going to be pretty comparable (and high)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 2:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely not...
If the A’s can’t get Furcal they have to pursue Cabrera or Renteria. Are they inferior options? Yes. Are they better than Crosby? Yes. Are they better than having doodly squat in 2010, other than “hoping Petit progresses a lot”? Yes.
They aren’t going to get 3 year deals in this market… hell, the Tigers thought Renteria would take a one-year arbitration deal. And on a 2-year deal they’re nothing like crippling.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 2, 2008 10:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The 2009 team doesn't much care who plays SS in 2010
There is plenty of time between now and then to address it.
I think the cost of upgrading Crosby to non-Furcal (via FA, there are certainly appealing trade targets) outweighs the benefit.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 11:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I emphatically disagree
It’s pessimistically worth a win to get Cabrera, and it’s likely to cost less than the going market price (c. $5 million) to get that win. I think it’s actually closer to 2 wins to get Cabrera, because I think Crosby is barely above replacement level and my analysis a couple of weeks ago actually overrated him.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 2, 2008 11:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess my feeling there is that your analysis was better than you think
And paying market rate for one win while assuming future costs seems less efficient to me than paying below market for several wins (see, RJ).
Plus we don’t have to deal with dumping Crosby. We can just offer arbitration after 2009 and get draft picks.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 12:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Uhhhh
Take a look at what happened this offseason.
Do you really, honestly, expect to get a comp pick (not picks— there isn’t a bloody snowball’s chance in hell he is Type A) for Bobby Crosby? The way things are going for him, he’d probably be better off taking arbitration.
As for Johnson, the two are not mutually exclusive or even particularly close to it.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 2, 2008 2:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I still don't understand so many teams declining arbitration
Maybe it’s economic fears. That wasn’t my point so much as it is a silver lining, because signing Cabrera gets us a small upgrade and forces us to deal with Crosby which is (at least) inconvenient.
Even if RJ isn’t mutually exclusive, the point remains that there are likely more efficient ways to spend money than $5M (in a multi-year contract) for one win out of SS.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 2:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the A's should stick with Barton
If he really struggles for an extended period of time (1+ month) then make a move. I understand it would be harder to do during the season but I think they should address other needs first. Unless they can sign Giambi on the cheap for 1 or 2 years which is doubtful.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
by micdog2001 on Dec 2, 2008 4:07 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
food for thought:
Giambi was pretty unlucky last year
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batters-and-babip/
Save Rajai Davis
by oakinboston on Dec 2, 2008 7:59 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
If by details you mean the kind of dope you are smoking
I want some… as a famous man said don’t bogart the weed, (I can’t remember his name because I was stoned).
"AN, Reducing Work Productivity since 2003", connie mack 11/06/08
by adragon on Dec 2, 2008 9:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll play first
The Maharg makes me look like an idiot.
by carp on Dec 2, 2008 9:38 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
BA on carter
From BA:
11. Chris Carter, 1b, North Shore (Athletics).
Carter led the minors in total bases and extra-base hits and ranked second in home runs during the regular season. He got off to a fast start in Hawaii but slowed as the season went along, failing to adjust to a steady diet of breaking stuff. Carter also appeared to tire a bit but still showed the raw power to all fields that makes him such a dangerous hitter. He showed good athleticism and the potential to be a solid to above-average defender at first base.
by Asfan4ever723 on Dec 2, 2008 9:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
This is Barton's Year
Why waste money on Dunn, Giambi, or Burrell for a year? Nick Johnson is terrible and on the downswing of his career. Yeah, Barton should have done batter last year but he still has a bigger upsaide than any of the guys the A’s could deal for. Plus, isn’t projecting upside what the A’s are all about?
Ellis – 2B
Furcal – SS
Barton– 1B
Holliday – LF
Cust – DH
Chavez – 3B
Suzuki – C
Buck – RF
Sweeney – CF
Oakland A's 2009: Holliday Celebrate
by headfirst slide on Dec 2, 2008 11:28 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
i meant better*
Oakland A's 2009: Holliday Celebrate
by headfirst slide on Dec 2, 2008 11:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn on 1st is worse than you all think
From a Reds fan who experienced Dunn trying out 1st base during spring training a couple years ago – that would be a big adventure! As much of a liability as he is in LF (which, by the way, last year he was middle-of-the-pack defensively), he’d be much, much worse at 1st base. Sorry, Dunn’s not an option. My guess is that Burrell isn’t either.
"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey
by JJ on Dec 2, 2008 2:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Barton may suck again next year...
There is an enlightening article over at THT on a new formula calculating BABIP based on more than just simply adding .12 to LD%. This new formula (you can go read the article if you’re so inclined) has a lot stronger correlation between actual BABIP and expected BABIP. Unfortunately, though, it knocks down Barton’s expected BABIP from .308 to .279. Since his BABIP was .263 this past year, there is a lot less ‘unluckiness’ than one might assume based on Barton’s perceived talent level and his actual on field production. Therefore, it leads me to conclude that he may not be quite as good as everyone is still trumping him to be. I’m really hoping we sign someone for 1b and let Barton get the reps down in AAA before continuing his MLB un-Excellent Adventure.
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 2, 2008 3:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Wait - you mean all deviations in BABIP
are not uniformally explained purely by luck?
Dang, this baseball thing is proving to be more complex than I reckoned!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 2, 2008 3:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe you should burn the straw man who told you otherwise.
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
by andeux on Dec 2, 2008 4:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 2, 2008 7:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
OTOH
It says Giambi was nearly as unlucky as Swisher. Some of that can be explained by the Giambi shift though.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Dec 2, 2008 3:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Good Pro-Barton arguments (I'm pro-Barton) would be that he'll be a lot better than he was last year, not that he was actually good but really really really unlucky
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on Dec 2, 2008 4:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't think he was that unlucky
I think he just hit a LOT fewer balls hard, INCLUDING his line drives. Not all line drives are equal, and Barton scorched the ball in Sept ’07 but hit a lot of “dying quail” soft liners in ’08.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 2, 2008 5:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hence the "He'll be better next year" attitude trumping the luck argument
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 8:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, except it's not luck when someone
hits the ball less hard – it may be an injury or it may be evidence of not-good-itude. Which would predict worse results going forward, not better. Luck corrects faster than flaws.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 2, 2008 9:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
September Barton says hi
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 10:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The reason Barton's expected BABIP from Bendix's formula is lower
than it is from the line drives formula has nothing to do with anecdotal observation of his batted ball velocity (a sketchy evaluation at best) and everything to do with the other variables they checked out, in particular the facts that he’s slow, doesn’t have much power at this point, and hits a lot of fly balls.
I imagine you’ll find the same three factors to be problems for Jack Hannahan, although I can’t immediately check it out because I don’t have Excel on my machine.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 2, 2008 10:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Which is why I'm not sure Barton has/will reach the ceiling everything seems to imagine is there.
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 3, 2008 6:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Shrug
He’s more athletic than Kevin Youkilis, who was much worse at the same age. He just has to develop an approach at the MLB level that actually works for him, which he hasn’t really done yet.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 3, 2008 8:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm trying to figure out why his bat seemed slower through the zone
in 2008 than in his 07 callup. Injured hand? Heavier bat? Hangover?
But enough about me.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 3, 2008 8:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Pat Burrell (GO BELLS!!!)
that would be cool but i think it will most likely be Daric Barton.
by idunno723 on Dec 2, 2008 3:41 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Hells to the Yeah
Burrell was a senior when I was a freshman. Not that I knew him or even really heard of him back then. Too busy trying to keep from getting stuffed into lockers and whatnot.
But if we sign him, I’ll be sure and dig out the ol’ yearbook and scan the senior pic for all of you wonderful people..
www.myspace.com/sixto80
by Sixto on Dec 2, 2008 3:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
He played at Bellarmine...
when Eric Byrnes was at Saint Francis. Great West Catholic rivalry.
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on Dec 2, 2008 4:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Byrnsie, he was a Catholic boy,
redeemed through pain, not through joy…
by skutch on Dec 2, 2008 7:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I do not like the "if we sign Burrell/Dunn, we can't resign Holliday!" argument
You do not hurt yourself in the short term because you will damage your already slight chances of resigning a player who will, in all likelyhood, not resign with you anyways.
And even if you do want to resign Holliday, and lets say we do end up succesfully resigning him, you can always then trade Dunn/Burrell to free up cash for Holliday after you made sure you got him. Or you can try to dump other contracts (like a certain expensive 3B who currently is w/o a spine or shoulder).
facepalm.jpg
by Zonis on Dec 2, 2008 5:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
+1
"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Dec 2, 2008 5:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Chavy can't be traded w/o his permission though
he’s a 10 and 5 guy.
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on Dec 2, 2008 5:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
True, but he and Beane have a good relationship
Yeah, the A’s are unlikely to get his assent to dump him on some crap team, but those teams were unlikely to be looking to acquire him to begin with.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 2, 2008 7:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So this is where the idea for Nico's post came from...
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Dec 2, 2008 8:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
As a matter of fact, yes!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Dec 2, 2008 9:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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