AN Community Prospect List - #13
by Zonis on Dec 1, 2008 8:29 PM PST
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PrintJemile Weeks, 2B wins the #12 spot on the list with 22% of the vote.
AthleticsNation Top Prospect List:
- Trevor Cahill, RHP
- Brett Anderson, LHP
- Chris Carter, 3B/1B
- Aaron Cunningham, CF
- Gio Gonzalez, LHP
- Adrian Cardenas, SS/2B
- Sean Doolittle, 1B/RF
- James Simmons, RHP
- Vin Mazzaro, RHP
- Josh Donaldson, C
- Michel Inoa, RHP
- Jemile Weeks, 2B
New Addition to the Candidates List: Matt Sulentic, OF, Tyson Ross, RHP
Bumped off List: Nino Leyja, SS
CANDIDATES:
Pitchers:
Brett Hunter, RHP
Fautino De Los Santos, RHP
Henry Rodriguez, RHP
Arnold Leon, RHP
Josh Outman, LHP
Tyson Ross, RHP
Infielders/Catchers:
Dusty Coleman, SS
Outfielders:
Rashun Dixon, CF
Corey Brown, CF
Matt Sulentic, OF
POSSIBLES:
Pitchers:
Sam Demel, RHP
Andrew Carignan, RHP
Andrew Bailey, RHP
Jared Lansford, RHP
Craig Italiano, RHP
Carlos Hernandez, LHP
Jason Fernandez, RHP
Ryan Webb, RHP
Michael Madsen, RHP
Jamie Richmond, RHP
Anthony Capra, LHP
Jeff Gray, RHP
Travis Banwart, RHP
Ryan Doolittle, RHP
Daniel Thomas, RHP
Ricardo Penalba, RHP
Scott Hodsen, RHP
Scott Mitchinson, RHP
Infield/Catcher:
Nino Leyja, SS
Jason Christian, SS
Eric Patterson, IF
Petey Paramore, C
Landon Powell,C
Anthony Recker, C
Jeff Baisley, 3B
Cliff Pennington, SS
Gregorio Petit, SS
Justin Sellers, SS
Franklin Contreras, SS
Tommy Everidge, 1B
Outfield:
Jeremy Barfield, OF
Matt Spencer, OF/1B
Grant Desme, OF
Tyreace House, OF
Javier Herrera, OF
Danny Putnam, OF
Robin Rosario, OF
Jermaine Mitchell, OF
JD Pruit, OF
Chris Berroa, OF
Jose Crisostomo, OF
David Thomas, OF
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Then vote for the only guy who combines "throwing strikes" with "healthy"
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Gary Matthews Sr.?
That was somewhat subtle.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Corey Brown: Phantom or Osprey?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I'm thinking you didn't get the reference?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
It rang a bell... although I can't place it
The phoenix bit just sang to me
The monster at the end of this blog.
The F-4 Phantom is one of the most successful military aircraft in history, entering service in the 1960s and remaining in use by the US until 1996. Still in use by many nations’ air forces.
The V-22 Osprey is an overpriced, poorly designed pile of crap which acquired a disturbing notoriety for malfunctioning and crashing when it was being tested, and has ultimately caused cost overruns of about 2000% over the original estimate.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
yes
one of the biggest boondogles in military spending in recent memory… and thats really saying something
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Dec 2, 2008 12:08 AM PST up reply actions
Yes
Intended to replace the AV-8B Harrier, which didn’t need replacing. Of course, you could say that about the vast majority of modern US military equipment.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
OK, that's what I was thinking
I just didn’t think you were going there. You aren’t prone to comparing baseball players to aircraft.
And the Osprey was intended to replace the CH-46 Sea Knight and the CH-53 Sea Stallion as the principle heavy lift transport for the US Marines, not the Harrier attack jet.
The monster at the end of this blog.
pwned
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Corey Brown: Phantom of the Opry?
99 MPH with as much control as a deflating balloon - CurveballKing on H-Rod
Viva La Mexico!
Can't get enough of the Oakland A's or Golden State Warriors? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's and Golden Stat Hoops
Voted Leon
Good production and still plenty of projection left in him. I was tempted to go with Outman here but I think Leon is a bit better.
I think I'd vote several over Outman here
Leon, Dixon, Brown, Hernandez for sure. And maybe even Coleman, Leyja and Hunter.
facepalm.jpg
I have a bit better valuation of Outman
He has consistantly put up good K rates and has a good fastball for a lefty. He’s had trouble with walks but he was a lot better at that after coming over to the A’s system. He also held is own fairly well in the majors which is pretty good considering he only had 40 or so innings in AA prior to 2008.
Which pretty much sums up why I voted for Outman last round and this one-
well, that plus the fact he has a more than legitimate shot at being on the MLB club at the conclusion of spring training and a serious shot at being in the rotation, at that.
I don’t think he has the upside of Leon, who I really think is underrated outside this blog at this point, or DLS if he comes back solid from TJS, or H-Rod if he develops better command, or Dixon for that matter… but he’s shown enough talent and has also had enough success at higher levels thus far to warrant being in the top 15 right now in my view.
by still bills kingdom on Dec 1, 2008 9:39 PM PST up reply actions
The thing Outman has over all 7 of those guys
He’s much more likely to be a good major leaguer because he’s already a major leaguer. Other guys have higher upside, but Outman has already made it.
by thejd44 on Dec 2, 2008 9:08 AM PST up reply actions
Rodriguez did a heck of a lot better in the bullpen than as a starter.
Maybe the stretch helps him? Anyone have access to stretch and non-stretch Rodriguez stats?
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Dec 1, 2008 8:59 PM PST reply actions
He was much, much worse this season with runners on base
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Wrong.
He had a better FIP and worse BABIP. You could look it up!
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 2, 2008 2:57 AM PST up reply actions
His lower FIP was entirely due to a lower HR/FB rate
However, there is a weird fact, which is that his walk and strikeout rates are actually lower with men on (roughly the same ratio, but lower). By his standards, he’s actually pitching to contact with runners on base. That… doesn’t make any sense.
Eh, it probably doesn’t mean anything.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
FLDS, Henry Rodriguez and Arnold Leon will all steal votes from each other
while Dixon will probably end up winning this poll because of it.
facepalm.jpg
You mean he'll...steal it?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
"And Leon's getting l-l-larger!"
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Please explain the above comment.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
"What do you make of it?"
"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL
So what you're saying is AN 4 needs to have more sophisticated polling systems?
And, of course, drop all the stupid counterproductive shortcuts
Shortcuts like this one which eff up valid sentences, for example.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I'm amazed by the voting so far
DLS blew out his elbow and won’t pitch again until the middle of the 2009 season
Rodriguez got his ass kicked so bad in Midland he got demoted back to Stockton and ended up in the bullpen.
Leon has pitched out of the bullpen for the last 18 months.
Just so we’re all clear, AN believes that a guy on the DL and two relief pitchers are better than a 17 year old CFer with power? That’s just… I don’t know what the Hell that is.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Agree. That's why I voted for Dixon.
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Dec 1, 2008 9:57 PM PST up reply actions
Rookie ball!
It’s hard for me to take any player in rookie ball seriously.
Hey
You can’t publish the post, then lobby votes for your favorite candidates. You’re supposed to to be neutral man!
by GusanoQuemador on Dec 2, 2008 4:06 PM PST up reply actions
But a guy on the DL or another who can't throw strikes are serious
Dixon has all the tools, he’s an incredible athlete AND he had success in rookie ball as a 17 year old.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I'm still with you on Dixon
I can understand Leon at this point. FDLS, Rodriguez, and Outman over Dixon befuddle me.
Honestly I could even see the argument for brown over Dixon. But the three non-Leon pitchers getting support over him, I can’t get behind.
RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.
by walk off bunt on Dec 1, 2008 10:25 PM PST up reply actions
And to clarify
I’d still take Dixon over Weeks because with someone like Dixon’s upside, I’m more inclined to go upside over probability, if you will. (And given Weeks’ injury, his probability is even in question.)
And I’d still take Dixon over Inoa, because, all things being equal, I’d take the raw 17-year-old centerfielder with power who’s proven himself on even a limited level over the 16-year-old pitcher we know nothing about. I mean if you’re going upside vs. upside, which essentially what Dixon vs. Inoa is, it’s hard for me to bite on Inoa.
RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.
by walk off bunt on Dec 1, 2008 10:27 PM PST up reply actions
Inoa
I’m going off of what the Demand was for this kid (as is everyone else, I would assume). Inoa rec’d the largest signing Bonus for a D.R. baseball player… Ever. And he would have rec’d more if Beane didn’t sell Inoa/Agent/Parents on the A’s Organizational Theory on Young Pitchers, etc… There are a helluva lot of great baseball players in the MLB who come from the D.R.
I don't think it's fair to say we know nothing about Inoa, but I agree that it's still
very much a matter of projection at this point. However, I don’t know that it’s any more projection in the case of Inoa than Dixon- it’s not like Inoa has never thrown a pitch before or has not demonstrated he can do so effectively, it’s just that he hasn’t faced North American competition yet. Dixon has faced professional competition now on a limited basis in rookie league, and he shows amazing talent and potential which I think should warrant top 20 or top 25 status at this point, but I’d still take Inoa over him right now.
Scouting report info again, in case you haven’t seen it, and there are links in this article to other articles/reports as well:
by still bills kingdom on Dec 2, 2008 9:31 AM PST up reply actions
Leon's being treated with kid gloves
Because he is, well, a kid. But in 2009 Leon will be moved from the bullpen. If you don’t think he will succeed after the move, that’s a valid opinion. I think he will succeed. But fact is, there isn’t much Leon could have done better at this point. He’s above average in K’s, above average in stuff, above average in GB tendencies. Those three factors along with age are the four best factors one can look at in predicting future success from a pitching prospect. It’s not very often you see a prospect past 10 on a team’s top ten list that is above average in all four factors.
HRod and FDLS do have warts which you point out. And yes, I will be voting Dixon next.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
We don't even know what kind of stamina Leon has
We don’t know how he’ll stuff will hold up over 5-6 innings a game. You want to argue that Leon’s been treated with kid gloves? Fine. Dixon got thrown out there and ended up kicking a little ass.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I prefer to say he was among the leaders in several categories
That particular category is partially why he rated #6 on my personal list.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Yeah
- (in this system) is a little too high for Dixon (IMO). A decent run in the Hot Arizona heat is not enough. Let’s see how things go next year against better competition, and better outfielders (triples will be cut down)… in Vancouver.
"It's a feature, not a glitch!"
Is it just me, or is receiving that answer from a programmer the single most irritating thing about programmers?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
AN these days has as many "features" as Crosby's swing
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
now
is when I vote for Dixon, though I can see a lot of guys in this spot.
I see Outman a touch ahead of the next group of pitchers, and I think that Leon, DLS, Hunter, Ross, Rodriguez, Italiano, Carignan could be a clump of seven.
Though I like Christian, Sulentic and Brown enough to mix them in too.
I can tell I'm going to have to break out my Sam Demel bass drum as soon as Leon goes into the books...
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Not quite objective descriptions...
DLS blew out his elbow and won’t pitch again until the middle of the 2009 season
He was also dominant in 2007, being named the 60th best prospect in all of baseball by BA. By comparison, BA didn’t rank Dixon among its top 200 draft prospects for 2008. And TJ surgery is routinely effective these days.
Rodriguez got his ass kicked so bad in Midland he got demoted back to Stockton and ended up in the bullpen.
Not being ready for AA as a 21 year old isn’t a huge knock on a player, especially when he was very good in A+. And while he walked way too many guys in AA, he also surrendered just 1 HR in 41 IP—which is outstanding in the Texas League.
There’s a reason BA rated Rodriguez as the 9th best prospect in the CAL last year—ahead of Carter, Doolittle, and Donaldson. Focusing only on a 40 IP stretch isn’t very helpful.
Leon has pitched out of the bullpen for the last 18 months.
Is this because he’s not expected to have the repertoire to pitch in the rotation, or because they’re looking to limit the innings of a very young pitcher? If it’s the latter, how is that a knock against him?
Just so we’re all clear, AN believes that a guy on the DL and two relief pitchers are better than a 17 year old CFer with power? That’s just… I don’t know what the Hell that is.
The 18 year old who also struck out 68 times in 179 AB. Dixon has a ton of potential, but so do the 3 pitchers you’re mocking.
by Danny on Dec 2, 2008 7:30 AM PST up reply actions 4 recs
Be careful with your assumptions about BA's methodology
For instance, we don’t know to what extent they discount players who are perceived to be unsignable (as Dixon was). Also, their “league rankings” are based only on what players did in that league— meaning Rodriguez is being ranked without the benefit of his “more walks than strikeouts” Midland trip.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Sure we do
They state their methodology pretty clearly:
We always tell you our Top 200 Prospects list is based on our consensus view of the players’ talent, not where we think they will be drafted. That could be particularly true this year.
and here:
These rankings are based solely on talent, with no attempt to gauge signability or match players with specific teams.
—————————————————-
Also, their "league rankings" are based only on what players did in that league— meaning Rodriguez is being ranked without the benefit of his "more walks than strikeouts" Midland trip.
Yes, I should have been more clear. My point was that Rodriguez has a ton of talent, so much so that BA rated him above 3 other A’s prospects who had great seasons in the CAL. His 40 innings in AA shouldn’t overshadow his talent or his much larger body of work.
And, again, his performance in AA wasn’t quite as bad as it appears. Due to his excellent K and HR rates, he had a 4.71 FIP in a league that averaged 4.90 runs/game.
This hasn't been a good thread for my credibility
I don’t know why they didn’t rank him in the top 200, then. Seems like a mistake, given that they were pretty gushy about him after he started producing.
Rodriguez’s FIP was low because his fly balls weren’t leaving the park. His luck-neutral FIP was well over 5.
Also, if the reason teams score 4.9 runs a game is because of unusually high BABIPs (you’d expect that in the minors where the D is worse) it wouldn’t seem to make sense to compare the FIP to league-average runs scored in that league.
I don’t know if the FIPs are “calibrated” to the league in any way, however.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
re:
Rodriguez’s FIP was low because his fly balls weren’t leaving the park. His luck-neutral FIP was well over 5.
I’ve never seen any evidence that minor league pitchers don’t control their HR/FB rates. Rodriguez has had a low HR/FB rate at every stop in the minors, with his career mark at 4.5%.
Also, if the reason teams score 4.9 runs a game is because of unusually high BABIPs (you’d expect that in the minors where the D is worse) it wouldn’t seem to make sense to compare the FIP to league-average runs scored in that league.
I’m not quite sure what you’re saying here.
Entity BABIP
Texas League .313
Rockhounds .318
Rodriguez .434
FIP is "centered" on league-average runs scored
and then adjusted up or down based on the pitcher’s controllable stats. The equation for THT’s FIP calculation is (13*HR+3*(BB+HBP)-2*K)/IP+3.20.
In a league where average runs scored are significantly higher, you need to adjust the calibrating number at the end upward (and thus adjust the FIPs upward as well).
Let’s run the numbers for Rodriguez in Midland (I’m sticking an x in there because I can’t find his H:
(13*1+ 3*45-2*43)/42.33+x=
(13+135-86)/42.33+x=
68/42.33+x=1.61+x
which shows that they are indeed using a value of 3.20 for x. Change that 3.20 to 3.60 to account for the run scoring environment of the Texas League and his FIP is 5.21.
I’ve never seen any evidence that minor league pitchers don’t control their HR/FB rates.
Well, if you’re going to go there, I haven’t really seen conclusive evidence that minor league pitchers don’t control their BABIPs, either. I just don’t understand what this is supposed to tell us. When (if) Rodriguez gets to the bigs, he will have an HR/FB somewhere between 8% and 12%, because everyone does. And he will have a true BABIP somewhere between .280 and .320, because everyone does.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Dec 2, 2008 12:46 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks!
I had always just assumed that Fangraphs ran league-specific FIP calculations. It’s good to know they don’t.
Stiil, though, his FIP is much better than his ERA.
Well, if you’re going to go there, I haven’t really seen conclusive evidence that minor league pitchers don’t control their BABIPs, either.
I don’t know if it’s conclusive, but there’s evidence.
I’m also just not a big fan of xFIP, even at the MLB level.
The part about Jason Windsor is a bit funny in retrospect
although in fairness to Mr. Windsor, it wasn’t “hittability” that did him in, it was his shoulder imploding.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Whoops
I’m thinking they might not be including HBP, because it’s not listed on their site. (At least Rodriguez wasn’t way up there in THAT category— his fastball is only dangerous to his team’s chances of winning, not to the opposing hitter…)
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I mocked no one
Everything you said about DLS being good in 2007 is good and relevant but it takes a back seat to the fact he injured his arm and had TJ surgery. It’s probably going to be mid-2009 before he’s 100% again and there is no such thing as routine surgery. Jimmy Shull blew out his elbow back in ‘06, had TJ surgery and hasn’t pitched since. Why? Because he hurt his shoulder while trying to come back from his 1st injury. some pitchers come back and have gained a little on their fastball, others have lost stuff and still others have struggled with their command. So even before we can talk about the AA acid test and taking on more advanced hitters we don’t know what kind of pitcher he’s going to be.
Rodriguez not being ready for AA is like saying the Titanic wasn’t ready to practice a life boat drill. He got sent back to Stockton and then got demoted to the bullpen. Almost any time a pitching prospect goes from the starting rotation to the bullpen is a knock on their prospect status, simply because a 220 inning SP is generally more valuable than a 70 inning reliever. Especially in Rodriguez’s case, as a SP he projected to be at the top of the rotation… if he is pitching so bad that he’s no longer viewed as a viable SP canidate then you can’t help but acknowledge the loss of status.
Leon has pitched out of the bullpen to keep his innings down. Seeing as he hasn’t pitched SP innings for at least 18 months it seems premature to assume he’s ready for the full workload. So I’m guessing that the a’s are going to do what they did with Cahill and company and limit his innings in 2009 IF they convert him to the rotation. I want to see how his stuff holds up under a SP’s workload before going too happy-happy, joy-joy over him.
Finally, Dixon’s age was 17 through all but the last 3 games of the AZL season. I think it is perfectly legit to say he played the year as a 17 year old.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I think he was moved because the A's think thats the fastest way to get him to the Majors
and he’s on a time limit
facepalm.jpg
Dixon was 17, yes
“Seasonal age” for baseball is pretty simple: whatever age you are on July 1, that’s your seasonal age. This was his age 17 season, Sean Doolittle’s age 21 season, etc.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Sure, but it's just arbitrary
Wherever you set the end point, a player who’s a day younger than another player can appear to be a year younger.
True, but it helps clarity if everyone uses the same arbitrary endpoints
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Are we sure that Dixon has power?
I remember reading that all those triples were because of his crazy speed turning routine doubles into triples?
Dingers
He was also third in the AZL with 8 HRs.
Top four in votes are the next four I'd chose
I’d say DLS, Leon, Dixon, Rodriguez. First three are pretty close for me, Rodriguez is a bit behind. I’d probably take the first three over Weeks and Donaldson.
The A's colors are green and gold.
+1 from me
i just voted DLS for the third straight time…
I’d say DLS, Leon, Dixon, Rodriguez. First three are pretty close for me, Rodriguez is a bit behind. I’d probably take the first three over Weeksand Donaldson.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
in order of value at the time of the trade
Gio Gonzalez
Fautino De Los Santos
Ryan Sweeney
Sweeney was the throw in at the time, but ended up thus far producing the most out of the three. But then again, I am of the opinion that Sweeney is a 4th outfielder, not a true starter, for at least as long as he keeps the slap-hitter swing.
facepalm.jpg
by Zonis on Dec 2, 2008 2:59 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Gotta remember
that Sweeney was only 23 for all of last season. The White Sox continually moved him up after mediocre years and never really let him develop his skills. He’s still very young. But yes, I agree that Sweeney has the swing of a lead off hitter in the body of a natural power hitter.
This is where our system gets fun
I just did a scan of the guys remaining and have no problem getting up to the low 30s with guys who I think are legit prospects.
We also seem like we are likely to underestimate the older guys who could still have careers in MLB and are already AAA/AAAA players, but that’s not too surprising, it’s the influence of BA which seems to permeate all of baseball’s prospect lists.
Don't get the H-Rod love
If this survey was being conducted last offseason then sure, by all means vote for him. But after this past season where he showed he has no idea where the plate is I’ve become very skeptical of his future performance. Until he proves me otherwise I would put him closer to 20.
I’m going Leon on this one and then Dixon. Pitching still wins championships in my book so I tend to value pitching prospects higher than position players, especially since our system has a tendency to develop more competent pitchers than competent hitters lately.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
+1
Rodriguez has always had trouble with walks and saw it spike with the move to AA. He has to seriously improve his control just to make it as a reliever, even in Stockton Rodriguez was walking 4.8 per 9 innings. I mean, he has a great K-rate, but if he gives out that many free passes he has no shot of making it to the big leagues.
and he has a time limit
It is almost certain he will make it to the Majors as a Reliever simply because he has 2 years of development left before he has to be on the 25 Man Roster.
facepalm.jpg
That may be three years, and so what. The A's need relievers too.
It doesn’t mean he’ll never start. If he’s a shutdown reliever in 2009 I say bring him up and get that service clock going!
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 2, 2008 2:58 AM PST up reply actions
The A's have a lot of Relief Prospects
and you can also argue that any of the SP Prospects that don’t make it are potential Relievers as well. So yes, being a Relief Prospect hurts his value quite a bit.
I think the A’s would be wise to trade him now. The longer they keep him, if he does not zoom through the system with good progress with his control, the lower his value will be. If we are not careful, he could end up being lost to us on waivers even before he’s ready. And if he can bring us something of value, either as a straight up trade or part of a package, I say do it.
facepalm.jpg
+1
There aren’t many A’s prospects who are overrated, but he’s clearly one of them.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I think the opposite. Lots of A's prospects are overrated and he's not one of them.
I think 8 A’s prospects have been voted into the Top 100 at minorleagueball.com, and I’ve only voted for Cahill. I also voted for Simmons in a runoff against Nick Noonan but that’s more an indictment of Nick Noonan than any endorsement of Simmons who is highly overrated. I also don’t see Donaldson nor Doolittle as impact major leaguers.
There’s way too much penalty overall for what’s perceived as high standard deviation, when much of that is upside deviation. For example, I don’t see how Simmons has less downside deviation from average major league level than Rodriguez, but he was rated in the Top 100 primarily due to a perception that he’s “safe”. What he really is isn’t “safe”, it’s that his standard deviation is low. But when you’re starting from a low mean, as all prospects do, low standard deviation also means low upside deviation and that’s bad.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 2, 2008 4:28 PM PST up reply actions
You don't think Anderson is top 100?
Really?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
It's a sequence of polls
If every poll has someone you like more than Prospect X up to the point where Prospect X wins, you’ll end up never voting for Prospect X (even if you think he’s a top 100 prospect). I don’t recall ever voting for Chris Carter, because I think there was always someone on the list who I liked more than him, but I think he’s top 100. Or maybe it was Cardenas, I forget.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Right. I think Anderson is Top 25. I also thought some of the others
were Top 100.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 2, 2008 6:03 PM PST up reply actions
Hogwash
James Simmons is starting from a mean of about 5 runs below average. Henry Rodriguez is starting from a mean of about 50 runs below average. I don’t really care that Rodriguez has a standard deviation of 25 runs and Simmons only has a standard deviation of 5 runs— Simmons is still the better prospect.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
You need to either revise or much better explain your swine cleaning formula
Simmons and Rodriguez had similar MLE’s on minorleaguesplits.com — 4.36 for Simmons, 4.49 for Rodriguez. Baseball Prospectus projected Rodriguez’’s Peak ERALF at about 3.80 and Simmons at 4.38. I’m not sure where you’re getting the 45 run mean differential. If you’re doing your own projections, you really need to explain a lot better why you’re right and they’re wrong.
Second, I probably didn’t make it clear in my post and I apologize for my poor written communication skills. It’s not that I believe Rodriguez has a higher standard deviation necessarily, it’s that others appear to believe he is more risky because they believe he has one.
Somewhere along the line it’s become accepted wisdom that High Strikeout/High Walk is more risky than Low Strikeout/Low Walk. Has this been verified in a study? If so can you point me to the link? I’m not sure that it’s even true. I was commenting on what others seem to believe.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 2, 2008 6:13 PM PST up reply actions
Also if it is actually true that High K/High BB has a higher Std Dev than
Low K/Low BB, has anyone verified that the Downside Deviation is also higher for HigK/High BB relative to Low K/Low BB?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 2, 2008 6:17 PM PST up reply actions
Simmons is NOT low-strikeout
The (misnamed) “scouting report” at the Cube rates his strikeout ability at 78 out of 100. What that really means is something like that he’s better than about 78/100 pitchers in strikeout ability. (He’s rated 100 in control and 97 in efficiency; Rodriguez scores respectively a 3 and a 14.)
So a comparison of “low walk/low K” pitchers to “high walk/high K” pitchers would whiff on Simmons, because he’s a “low walk/high K” pitcher. Obviously that does not indicate that his Ks are as high as Rodriguez’s, I’m just saying which quadrant of that group he falls into.
I’m not aware of any minor league studies that indicate much of anything about standard outcome deviations for various types of pitchers.
I’m not going to make any claims of accuracy for my Mark One Eyeball projections, but I can tell you that I basically assume players will continue to be who they are, adjusted for age and increased difficulty of level and modified if they have some projectable attributes (which Rodriguez really doesn’t at this point, unlike say Dixon). If Rodriguez continues to be who he is, he’s not even close to an MLB pitcher.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I understand your method a bit better now. I've never paid that much
attention to those numbers on Baseball Cube. Thanks.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 3, 2008 10:24 AM PST up reply actions
Carlos Hernandez
I’m really digging his numbers. Very few walks, essentially zero homers. Left handed…
HRod
Has really got something to prove next year in AA. He got absolutely blasted in AA this year. If he cant find his control hes gonna get hit just as hard. Id still rather have DLS, and I voted for him. Hrod in my books is 15-20 material.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
Hunter
I’m surprised with how little support Hunter is getting. Right now, I think I might take him over Weeks. Is it the late round draft position? If it’s the injury history, then why is FDLS getting so much support?
FDLS
I think he’s getting a lot of support because TJ Surgery is very succesful these days. Some pitchers come back stronger.
I think it's because
He’s still largely unproven. He never dominated in college as starter (his first year of relief was very good). His prospect status is due mostly to the fact that he has great stuff (in particular is a starter who throws really hard). He’s a tools pitcher at this point – if he pans out, it’s great. But he might not. And the injury issue of course. At the age Hunter is now, FDLS was dominating A-/A+. That’s a big difference.
by jdr on Dec 2, 2008 9:38 AM PST up reply actions
Also
“H-Rod” is without a doubt the absolute worst, most terrible, awful version of the “-Rod” nicknames ever conceived.
Can we please, please, please call him something else?
RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.
I'm in favor of x-ing out blank-Rod nicknames altogether.
We need something awesome, like the Flamethrower or something. Or since he’s Zumaya Jr, we could call him Rock Band.
How about "Broadside"
As in he couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn he’s so wild.
by thejd44 on Dec 2, 2008 2:49 PM PST up reply actions
How about "Hyperbole"
Since his supporters discuss his 101 MPH heat and his detractors discuss his Ankiel-esque control…
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Ankiel was able to throw strikes at one point
Rodriguez, as far as I can tell, has never been able to do so.
BTW, speaking of Ankiel, anyone else notice that he threw 16 wild pitches in 42 1/3 innings? That’s borderline unbelievable. There were only 3 qualified pitchers in all of MLB who threw that many wild pitches, and qualifying requires you to throw 162 innings.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I still like CurveballKing's description of Rodriguez
that I use as a sigline. Particularly since it covers both topics.
Disclaimer: I edited the wording to be more concise. (for concission? for conciseness?)
99 MPH with as much control as a deflating balloon - CurveballKing on H-Rod
concussion?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Athletics.scout.com update on our top 50
I posted from 50 – 16 previously. So here are 15 – 11
15. Fautino De Los Santos
14. Corey Brown
13. Jemile Weeks
12. Henry Rodriguez
11. James Simmons
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Here is the writeup on DLS.
De Los Santos was one of the A’s highest profile acquisitions before the 2008 season. He came over in the Nick Swisher deal from the Chicago White Sox organization after a 2007 season when he established himself as one of the top right-handed pitching prospects in baseball by striking out 153 batters in 122.1 innings.
The Dominican right-hander pitched as advertised during spring training, as he was one of the best pitchers in the A’s minor league camp. He reported to the High-A Stockton Ports at the start of the season and things appeared to be moving along according to plan through his first three starts. He allowed seven runs in 16 innings with 20 strike-outs and six walks. However, in his fourth start he allowed seven runs in two innings and he walked four. In his final start of the season, De Los Santos allowed only a run in five innings, but he gave-up seven hits and struck-out only four.
After that start, De Los Santos was shut down with elbow soreness, which eventually resulted in De Los Santos undergoing Tommy John surgery. By spring training, he will be about 10 months into his recovery from the surgery, which generally requires about a 10-12 month recovery.
"He is still just in the early stages of throwing. By the time he comes to spring training, he will be throwing sides and stuff like that, but I do not think he will be ready to pitch in games by the start of the spring," Gil Patterson, A’s minor league pitching coordinator, said in late November.
"It might not be long after [before he is throwing in games]."
Pitchers have generally had a good track record when returning from Tommy John surgery, but the A’s won’t know if De Los Santos’ stuff has fully returned until probably mid-season at the earliest. Control, in particular, is the last thing that usually comes back for Tommy John patients.
When healthy, De Los Santos’ fastball sits in the 93-97 range with movement. He also has a big breaking slider and a power curveball, as well as a developing change-up. He isn’t a big guy – standing at a shade under six feet – but he hasn’t had trouble maintaining his velocity late into his starts.
It took De Los Santos awhile to be noticed when he was in the Dominican Republic, so he is already 22 even though he has spent only two seasons in the US (he will be 23 all next season). De Los Santos has pitched only a handful of innings at the High-A level, and he is likely to start back in Stockton in 2009. Depending on how quickly his control comes back after the surgery, he might see significant time at Double-A Midland by the end of the year. Despite the injury, he still has the chance to be an above-average starter or a late-inning power reliever in the big leagues
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
personal preference: provide a direct link for posts this long… not just for space saving but for crediting the writer.
Save Rajai Davis
by oakinboston on Dec 2, 2008 7:45 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
it's not just a personal preference
whatever site that writeup is from may give blez/sbnation a hard time.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
Which is why I in turn will give Eastbayjim a hard time
Eastbayjim: What they said. But thanks for the info.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I believe it is in # 11
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Maybe people are confusing Rodriguez from the movies
He’s like a combination of Henry Rowengartner and Benny “The Jet” Rodriguez.
He can outrun giant dogs owned by James Earl Jones and throw 100 until his arm goes back to normal (after which the A’s convert him to an underhander).
Plus, Funky Butt-Lovin’ Henry is a plus-plus nickname.
au contra ire
PT, I think people may not know enough about Leon
to vote for him. They know he’s been pitching in the Mexican League against guys above his age group, and know he’s been throwing out of the bullpen, but they don’t have as much knowledge on him as they do on a guy like Rodriguez. Maybe the reason Leon isn’t getting enough love is because people don’t have the right information.
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Dec 2, 2008 6:40 PM PST reply actions
Or maybe I'm retarded
Since you did exactly that in List #11…
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Dec 2, 2008 6:43 PM PST up reply actions
My hesitation on Leon is that he's pitched fewer than 80 innings in his career.
That said I do have him above Simmons, Doolittle and Donaldson and not below anyone not yet elected other than Rodriguez and De Los Santos. If we’d elected Rodriguez at #6 or #7 like we should have I’d have been voting for Leon already!
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 2, 2008 6:51 PM PST up reply actions
6 or 7?
this is starting to remind me of foolshgame22 and eric byrnes…
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
I must have missed that.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 3, 2008 10:19 AM PST up reply actions
sulentics link
goes to justtin seller’s page on the baseball cube. just saying
daric barton for albert pujols straight up: get it done billy.
He's only up 12 out of 296 votes
Al Franken demands a recount.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
A whole bunch of people that don't belong to SB Nation tried to vote for DLS
So let’s see what we can do to get those votes counted
au contra ire
I'll bet the 14 who voted for Nader are kicking themselves
No wait – turns out that’s ME kicking THEM!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
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