Monday's Hot Corner Depth Chart
by grover on Dec 1, 2008 2:16 AM PST
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PrintAbout a week ago I made a joke about posting a list of 3B prospects currently within the A's organization. Since I didn't bring up salb's height or Nico's goat affection some people didn't realize that I was telling a joke. So I'd like to set things straight once and for all...
There is no list.
Because there are no legit 3B prospects in the Oakland organization at this time.
That's the joke! HA!
Ha ha.
Heh.
Eric Chavez is the past, present and future 3B of the Oakland Athletics for the next two, possibly three years. Woe be unto the A's should something happen to him because after him...
Oops.
Here's what I can tell you about Eric Chavez with absolute certainty: He's hoping to be healthy in time for Spring Training and is under contract for $11 million in 2009, $12 million in 2010 and there is a team controlled option in 2011 for $12.5 million with a $3 million buy-out. Chavez turns 31 in a week and will do his best to return to his previous, healthy level of play.
Anything anyone tells you beyond that is pure speculation.
The 2008 Plan B was Jack Hannahan, who managed a god-awful 647 OPS (77 OPS+) but played either an excellent or below-average 3B with the bat. RZR considered him the best defender among qualifying 3B, Plus/Minus said he saved 21 runs and DRS says he cost the A's 1.23 runs. You've just gotta love those defensive metrics. Mark-1 eyeball scouting gives him a thumbs-up with the glove so I'm going to err on the positive for a change and say the A's were happy with Hannahan's defense. So does this mean Hannahan is Plan B next year?
Probably.
Jeff Baisley would be next in line, problem is he's had trouble staying healthy the last two years. He played in 81 games for the Sacramento River Cats and spent a little bit of time on the Oakland roster in September. He's a RH bat with a little bit of pop who's gotten acceptable reviews with the glove. He'd be Olmedo Saenz with a better glove if he didn't struggle to hit lefties. In the 197 at bats he's had vs. LHP since he graduated Low-A ball, Baisley has managed to not hit to the tune of 213/299/391 with 24 walks and 34 strike outs. 221 plate appearances are not enough to form a definitive conclusion regarding Baisley's ability to hit lefties... but he ain't done good so far.
My guess is if the A's feel Chavez is ready to play 5 days a week they'll keep Baisley up as his back-up and send Hannahan down to Sacramento so he can play everyday and stay sharp. If Chavez needs more down time then Hannahan stays and Baisley goes back to Sac. Or I'm completely wrong and Cliff Pennington or Gregorio Petit somehow work their way into the back-up mix.
Skipping down to AA Midland, Jesus Guzman tore up the Texas League in 2008 and looked to be a dark horse canidate to possibly cover/replace Eric Chavez. Then the A's let Mr. Guzman go as a minor league free agent and he signed with the SF Giants.
Midland's 2009 3B could be interesting. Or not. The A's seem determined to give top prospect Chris Carter every opportunity to play 3B. This is a long shot at best, and if Carter is Midland's everyday 3B than there's a good chance that Adrian Cardenas will be playing SS. Here's where things get interesting. A Carter/Cardenas left side of the infield is not going to help Trevor Cahill or any Midland pitcher defensively. How long will the A's allow their infield science experiments go on at the expense of their young pitching?
Carter put up a fairly impressive line between High-A Stockton and the Hawaiian Winter League, playing in 160 games and hitting 255/358/544 with 41 HR and 94 walks in 585 at bats. The downside was 184 strike-outs and a shaky glove. Cardenas didn't put up an impressive line, especially after joining the Oakland organization. He posted a 656 OPS between Stockton, Midland and the AFL and those are all good places to hit. His overall numbers were 133 games and 486 at bats for a 288/358/383 line. The power came in the form of 19 doubles, 6 triples and 5 HR at a 53/83 BB/K rate. Big league teams generally want more offense than that from their 3B. Plus, the A's keep running him out to play SS so we can't really call him a 3B prospect at this point.
If the A's are even going to have the option of saving some cash and replacing Chavez in 2011, then his replacement needs to be found on Midland's 2009 roster. Is that guy here? Let's just say if the A's have a quality 3B prospect fall to them in the 1st round of the 2009 draft they'd be fools to let him slip by.
As for the lower levels of the organization... nothing.
Zip.
An empty pit of darkness modeled after Bobby Crosby's swing.
It's possible that the A's could move one of Jason Christian, Nino Leyja or Dustin Coleman to 3B and it is likely that they'll continue their program of moving guys around the field to see where folks best fit, but at this point the 2008 draft class is too far away to factor into the decision to keep Chavez beyond 2010.
You know, it's never a good thing when you have to explain the joke.
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what are the chances
we get guzman back by way of rule 5? cause i want him back
Technically it's possible because the Giants didn't add him to their 40 man roster
Realistically, if the A’s really wanted to keep him all they had to do was add him to their 40 man roster.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I would say around 1/10000
The A’s could have kept Guzman simply by adding him to the 40 man roster. To pick him up in the rule V, the A’s would need to add him to the 25-man. Basically, the A’s would need to receive very bad news concerning Chavvy’s health (namely he has no chance at playing in ’09). Then they would have to feel that Hannahan and Baisley would not do better than Guzman. I find that scenario very unlikely.
And it’s sad. I liked Guzman (and Jose Garcia) a lot better than some of the dregs of the A’s 40 man. I would easily have given Guzman a shot over Robnett, Dillon, and others I can’t remember right now. But the A’s didn’t feel the same way.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
I agree with this but add
that IMO, A scarecrow could perform better at the plate than Hannahan. The guy is nothing more than a defensive replacement and basically belongs either in the minors or on another team.
This is the last time I will comment on Hannahan unless he is still on the roster for next year.
Let’s pray that Chavy can play in at least 100 games at 80 percent of his former self. I would take that anyday. I think his bat will be fine. It is the throwing over to first that may be another matter.
Also
He is likely the mvp in the venezuelan winter league.
Word on the street is that he's likely to get Rule 5ed by someone after going bananas down there
It would be amusing if the Giants Rule 5ed their “own” player in order to protect him from getting taken…
Honestly, if Skelton isn’t available and Guzman is when the A’s pick, I’d take him. It’s no use crying over spilt milk. Yes, the team could have put him on the 40-man roster in September; no, that’s not an argument against taking him in Rule 5.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Viva El Birdos
here’s their analysis on the cards 3b depth
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2008/11/30/675459/the-hot-corner-is-en-fuego
Don't worry grover, I got your joke at the time....
If Chavez proves himself unhealthy next year (and I expect he will), I’d say the A’s should target Beltre. Beltre is pretty much a right-handed Chavez vintage ‘02-’03. He’s an amazing defender and a very solid, above average hitter who doesn’t get the respect he deserves. And so he could probably be had cheaply (Say, for Sweeney?). I think any scenario with the A’s competing has to count on Chavez as a non-entity. That means either acquiring a starting 3b (Beltre) or having a very, very solid backup. Door #2 is Branyan. I think the A’s should the same and get a solid backup at SS if they get Furcal
or another injury risk. That door #2 is Everett.
As for prospects, I’d say the A’s hopes rest on Carter, followed by Donaldson. I will say this, Midland’s lineup could be stacked offensively when Carter plays 3b:
Sulentic LF
Cardenas SS
Carter 3b
Doolittle 1b
Donaldson C
Brown CF (I’m assuming the A’s will be aggressive with him as his time is running out)
Spencer RF
Sellers/Horton 2b
Some DH
And add to that a pitching staff of Leon, Lansford, HRod and possibly DLS/Italiano midyear with Demel in the pen. And that team’s pitching staff cowers to a AAA pitching staff of Cahill, Anderson, Outman, Simmons, Mazzaro with Carignan and Bailey in the pen. God, it’s nice having a great farm.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
How willing is Seattle to trade in the division?
We would be the first to deal with Zduriencik, dunno what kind of history he has with Beane, their paths dont seem to have crossed, looking at where he’s worked…
And what would they command for him? Straight up for Sweeney is a joke, they would want at least a centerpiece like a starting pitcher and on OF or something…
What really interests me the most about Beltre is that we would get him in a contract year. Need I remind anyone how absolutely ridiculous his numbers were last time he was due for a raise?
Maybe this is just me, but he seems like the kind of guy who would be motivated by the prospect of another big contract…
That aside, Im going to almost guarantee that Beltre and no other mlb ready 3B will come to the A’s unless the deal is an absolute ripoff, or if Chavez were to go to Beane and tell him straight up, “you cant count on me this season or the next.”
If the A’s are going to find someone to backup Chavez and start in his absence, he’s either going to come in the form of Rule 5 guy or someone under the radar (like a Cust type) who just has been shoved aside and not really given a chance to prove himself.
And what would they command for him? Straight up for Sweeney is a joke, they would want at least a centerpiece like a starting pitcher and on OF or something…
Given that they are likely to see him leave for a compensation pick, I imagine a Sweeney-type prospect wouldn’t be unreasonable. The trade-within-division taboo seems a larger obstacle than anything else.
to continue...
I would almost say that Beltre could be overvalued in the trade market.
Yes, he is a great defender, no question, but he’s a free swinger who gets on base below league average. That’s just ridiculous, he’s OPSed over .800 for the Mariners once (and that was .802).
He’s not comin to Oakland and I dont want him…
He'll be overvalued b/c there really aren't any attractive 3B options
on the FA market
Casey Blake is bleh/mediocre. Crede is more of an injury problem than Chavez.
Teams that need 3B will be targetting Beltre.
I know that's a pisser, baby.
is OPS adjusted for park effects?
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
i was being facetious
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
Context is everything
Cardenas didn’t put up an impressive line, especially after joining the Oakland organization. He posted a 656 OPS between Stockton, Midland and the AFL and those are all good places to hit. His overall numbers were 133 games and 486 at bats for a 288/358/383 line. The power came in the form of 19 doubles, 6 triples and 5 HR at a 53/83 BB/K rate. Big league teams generally want more offense than that from their 3B.
Cardenas’ performance in the Florida State League this year was very impressive, and I think it overwhelms the bad 2 weeks he had with Stockton. His .307/.371/.441 line may not look great at first glance, but, under closer examination, it’s really damn good.
First, the FSL is a serious pitchers league, with a leaguewide batting line of .256/.329/.376. Cardenas’ .441 SLG seems middling, but it was the 10th best in the whole league.
Second, Clearwater is a pitchers park even relative to the FSL. It had a one-year park factor of 94 in 2008, and its 3 year park factor is 97.
Third, Cardenas was one of the youngest players in the league. He was one of just 6 players under-21 to get 200+ AB in the league, and one of just 8 to get 100+ AB.
Obviously, I’d much rather see him stick at SS or 2B, but I think Cardenas will hit enough to play 3B.
by Danny on Dec 1, 2008 5:31 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I'm OK with Cardenas at 3B as well. Even if he never develops power, he could be a pretty good player like
Terry Pendleton. If Weeks can man 2B that’s OK too. It’s SS and CF that look really shaky.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 1, 2008 6:17 PM PST up reply actions
rule v or trade
Looks like the A’s will be combing the waiver wire in spring training. I don’t like Carter at third because he struggled through slumps in A ball last year.
i don't think anyone likes carter at third...
…in the majors…THIS season. at least.
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
Carter shouldn't be in the majors this year, period.
He was in A ball last year. Rushing up prospects is generally a horrible idea, and a large chunk of future success lies in these prospects.
Let him get all the development thing he needs, in AA/AAA.
I know that's a pisser, baby.
This is one reason
I’m not all that excited about the team’s offseason acquistion (and possible future ones) aimed at next year.
The A’s would be extraordinarily fortunate if Eric Chavez comes back, healthy enough not only to play, but to play third base effectively on a consistent basis.
Why is the team going back to hoping that injured guys suddenly get healthy, and stay healthy?
One of Carter's downsides was a "shaky glove"
If by shaky, you mean he looked like he was trying to field a grounder during an earthquake, then yes. It was shaky.
But yeah, 3rd base looks pretty grim right now. The Cards have a couple good options, and they’re in serious need of some bullpen help. I could see one of those guys coming over, they’d have to be better than Hannahan offensively, but I don’t know much about their defense. Wallace would be fantastic, and I think he could stick at third, but I might be dreaming about that one.
When it comes down to it, if the A’s aren’t as competitive as we all hope they will be, Matt Holliday could net us a serious prospect or two at the deadline (hopefully a legit third baseman).
There’s no way I see Carter having the glove to stick ANYWHERE or Cardenas having the power to warrant the position. At least he didn’t show it while he was playing for Oakland this year.
by the way, wallace #42
on milb top 50
Scouting report: A pure hitter from the left side, he has good plate discipline and the ability to hit for average and power. “A good athlete stuck in a bad body” is the perfect phrase for him as he’s more athletic defensively than people anticipated. He showed he may be able to stick at third as long as he watches his conditioning.
Upside potential: An All-Star-caliber bat at third base, he’ll never win a Gold Glove, but he can stay at the hot corner and his bat will play in the big leagues soon.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=477165
How's this for a weird plan:
Take James Skelton in Rule 5 (trading up if need be) and have him back up at third base and catcher.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
That could be interesting.
He has never played 3B professionally before, but if he could play that position, nice.
And that OBP makes me drool, and its primarily walk driven
I know that's a pisser, baby.
any reason to believe that he could back up 3b?
I mean considering that hes never played a professional inning there in his career?
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Dec 1, 2008 12:42 PM PST up reply actions
Bad catchers often switch to 3B
Otherwise, no, not really…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I love how AN sees every single non-middle infielder as a "switch to 3B" candidate
How often can players other than old SS actually do the conversion?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
or we could try to bring jeremy brown out of retirement....
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 1, 2008 1:40 PM PST up reply actions
beane go after renteria as plan B
if fural falls through?
now that tigers declined arby…wouldnt surprise me now
Tigers Decline To Offer Arb To Renteria
By Tim Dierkes [December 1 at 2:42pm CST]
According to Jon Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free Press, the Tigers declined to offer arbitration to Edgar Renteria today. The risk of the Type A free agent accepting must’ve been too strong. Since he will not cost any draft picks, Renteria now becomes more appealing to potential suitors. Rafael Furcal is neither Type A nor B, so he carries the same appeal.
Only 17.3% of MLBTR readers expected the Tigers to offer arb to Renteria.
Wow, they must be seriously hard-up for cash
Maybe he threatened to take it if they offered it, but I’d figure it was an empty threat. He’s clearly better off going on the market.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
But he's more valuable now
So why not threaten and see (talk, after all, being cheap)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I'm not saying it made no sense for him to threaten it
I’m saying it made little sense for the Tigers to believe the threat.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Speaking of Furcal
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3737498
Not signing unitl after winter meetings.
I wonder who that joke was aimed at....
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
Wallace...
This futile exercise (looking for 3rd base prospects of any stripe in this organization) is exactly why I am still surprised that the team didn’t pick Brett Wallace with their 1st round pick in this year’s draft. While I understand that the organization placed a premium on “up the middle” talent over corner/DH types, Wallace was clearly the best bet at number 12 overall to produce offensively in the major leagues within 2 years of being drafted…AND at a position that the A’s really need more depth. Think if the A’s had him now, 2010/2011 would look even brighter as the team wouldn’t NEED to base so many hopes on the shoulders, legs, back and forearms of Eric Chavez.
Of course, in the wake of Jemile Weeks’ season ending injury and the re-signing of Mark Ellis to a 2+1 deal the decision to draft weeks over Wallace looks even sillier…but even if you removed that set of circumstances from the equation, the decision to pass up a guy who is basically a lock to produce power and on-base numbers at the major league level for a speed/slasher guy with defensive issues of his own continues to baffle me and lead to gloomy fan posts such as this one.
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
I too am surprised the A's didn't emphasize the left side
of the infield with their #1 pick, but given that they didn’t it seems like it might make a lot of sense to make a real push at one of the Cardinals’ prospects. Freese might be the A’s best bet as he plays the best D, though Wallace is also ideal in that he’ll be ready just as Chavez is either moving to 1B or DH or coming off the books entirely.
Would the trade of a legitimate relief prospect – say, Carignan or Demel – and Crosby make for a fair win-win deal for Freese or Wallace?
Finally, I hate that Chris Carter is playing 3B. He’s not going to make it there and I’d much rather see him refine, and get truly competent at, 1B where he could stick. He’s way too young to be a DH-in-the-making and he can probably master 1B with two more years of play there in the minors. Let him play there in 2009 and 2010 and get good.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
They already have 2 elite relief prospects in their AAA club
I doubt they’re really feeling the need there. I suspect they’d rather have a starter or another middle infielder.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
would they want patterson?
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 1, 2008 6:30 PM PST up reply actions
They might... he's a similar prospect to Freese
in that he’s old, has put up good numbers in AAA, but hasn’t produced in the majors yet. And he does fit their needs better.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Hmm...Maybe Braden/Crosby?
I know Braden isn’t a great prospect, but he’s major league ready, major league tested, and appears to be hitting his stride.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I think sending them Braden alone ought to be enough
However, I view Crosby as having zero value, so it’s immaterial to me whether he’s included in any given trade or not.
Hey, it could be worse— at least he doesn’t have negative value. I calculated yesterday that if the Giants offered to give away Matt Cain and Barry Zito (as a package) to the Yankees, for nothing in return, the Yankees should decline the offer.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
My figuring on Crosby is that he would help the Cardinals (a little)
while his absence would help the A’s (through salary dump).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Why not try Doolittle at third?
Carter, a known defensive liability, was given a shot at playing third.
On the other hand, you have Doolittle who projects as a Gold Glove caliber first baseman. And apparently he is versatile enough to bounce between first and the outfield through his minor league career. He used to be a pitcher in college, so he likely has the arm to make those throws from third.
I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.
Ah yes...minor details!
I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.
i’m sick of all this discrimination against lefties
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
A (wildly) disproportionate number of baseball's best hitters are lefties
So you, grover, are wrong.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
You forgot lovers.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Context nevernever
We were discussing throwing arm, not batting swing.
The monster at the end of this blog.
But they're the same. No one ever bats left and throws right
Right?
sigh…
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
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