Potential Target: Cristian Guzman?

by Blicks on Nov 9, 2008 9:37 PM PST Comment 23 comments

Cristian Guzman. He made the All Star Team. He's not highly acclaimed because he plays for the LOLNats, who are also in the NL East, where most of the elite shortstops reside (Rollins, Reyes, Escobar, Hanley). The Nats need well...everything except 3B. A good farm system is a start.

Pros: Because I like lists.

He put up a .316/.345/.785 line in what is a bigger offensive cesspool than the A's lineup.
WOBA* of .359
Apparantly, Furcal is seeking a 4 year deal, something the A's should NOT give out to an injury prone player. Guzman also is much cheaper than Furcal, at 8MM.
He'd be gone after the 2010 season, so he won't be blocking top prospects post-2010.
He's worth 8.8 runs over replacement at SS, so he's not a crappy defender.
Crosby's GONE!!!!!!!
A good GM would assess the situation and trade Guzman for prospects, so it makes sense for the Nats to trade him.
8MM is probably around what Stephen Strasburg will get as a signing bonus. So, the Nats get prospects AND the freed money to pay that signing bonus (which they should pay anyway, but Bowden isn't intelligent). The Nats signing Strasburg keeps him out of the hands of our division rival up in Seattle. And cheap high upside players should be kept out of the AL West, unless they're going to the A's.

Cons:

Not a HR/big power threat. More of a singles hitter, but remember, small ball gets runs too.
Not a stolen base threat. I like my bags swiped.
Doesn't walk much, although decent OBP.
Has had problems in the AL before. He was horrible with the Twins, before signing with the Nats, missing all of 2006 due to injury, then coming back with great numbers in 2007-2008. The A's could end up with an Edgar Renteria type situation, which I HOPE does not happen. But then, the A's wouldn't be giving up anything even close in value to Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez.
Jim Bowden is not an intelligent GM. He might not trade Guzman, or ask for the moon for him. But then, that works on the flipside that the A's might be able to fleece him big time.

It's almost 1AM here. I'm probably missing something.

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Four problems:

1. His career stats are icky; I have good reason to believe this season was a fluke.

2. He can’t walk. At all. He’s a career .270 hitter. Last season he hit .316… what are the chances of him hitting .300+? (BTW, where do you guys find BABIP data?)

3. His defense isn’t any better than Crosby’s (excluding the past year), and may be arguably worse.

4. He’s on the wrong side of 30.

Frankly, I don’t see how he’d be all that much better than Crosby.

by VORP is too nerdy on Nov 9, 2008 9:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Click Splits on BB-Ref for BABIP

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Nov 9, 2008 10:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

.337 in 2008, .359 in 2007, .303 career for Guzman BABIP

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Nov 9, 2008 10:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't he just sign an extension?

He has been consistently good for the Nats the last couple of years and has a good glove. I wouldn’t mind seeing him in green and gold.

by IM4Oakgal on Nov 9, 2008 10:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Yes $16M for 2009-10 combined

I’d still rather have a young SS though.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Nov 9, 2008 10:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He doesn't have a good glove

Smith has him projected at -7 runs next season.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 9, 2008 10:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you linked it somewhere, but I don't remember the thread

Where are you finding Smith’s projections, and does it have an explanation of his projections?

by mikev on Nov 10, 2008 10:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Projections are here.

Explanation here.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 10, 2008 11:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The second link doesn't work.

by IM4Oakgal on Nov 11, 2008 5:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

In that sense, it's kind of like Guzman's bat.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 11, 2008 7:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Your joke doesn't work either...

because Guzman has a good bat. :-)

by IM4Oakgal on Nov 12, 2008 12:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I hate to use my superior debating skills, but:

Nuh-unh!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 12, 2008 7:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I lived in DC for 3 years and had to watch this bumb for 2 of those 3 years.

He is not good. I do not like this idea at all. Last year was an aberration.

by 33SwisherSweet on Nov 10, 2008 11:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What would we give up for him? Mazzaro and Sulentic or something like that?

I’d just as soon trade for a young SS like Hu, DeJesus, Escobar, Brignac, Wood, Rodriguez, well you know the list. I doubt it would cost all that much more if any, depending on whom we’re talking about

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Nov 9, 2008 10:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

A young SS would be better...

in the long run but this guys is a proven player. He’s played well for two years in a row so I don’t believe he’s a fluke. And if he did hit over.300 …with Giambi and Cust hitting some dingers behind him…Whoooo Hooooooooo!

by IM4Oakgal on Nov 9, 2008 10:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh how we have suffered watching Bobby Crosby...

Christian Guzman is starting to look good to people!

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 9, 2008 11:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

LMAO!

by IM4Oakgal on Nov 9, 2008 11:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

There are very few starting shortstops who I think are worse than Bobby Crosby

But Cristian Guzman is absolutely one of them.

by thejd44 on Nov 9, 2008 11:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

[turns aside from conversation disapprovingly]

No.

[returns to prior conversation]

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Nov 10, 2008 12:12 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I almost posted above

that I was curious what PaulThomas would add to this conversation.

Interestingly, I thought your response was rather chuckle-worthy.

Thanks. Heh.

still Swish Fan #1.

by ChrisCEIT on Nov 10, 2008 2:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Stat thirsty, my friend

Did you overpay for those eggs? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Nov 10, 2008 10:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Guzman = World Series Win

I assume this is based on the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays theory of baseball success. Suck for a decade, amass an army of top 5 draft picks, conquer all. A good start would be to trade for Guzman.

The only problem is that Bowden also subscribes to this philosophy and is still hoping to reap the eventual rewards for his 2004 signings of Vinny Castilla and Guzman. Our only hope is to offer someone so bad, so terrible, that the Nats will become even worse for such a prolonged time that they face league contraction. The obvious answer is Bobby Crosby. Maybe we throw Hannahan or DiNardo as a sweetener.

Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.

by jubjub on Nov 10, 2008 7:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs