Just a little ranting on my part

Funny enough, this started out as a Staturday piece!

Yeah, that focus didn't last long.

There are certain fundamental problems with the A’s current 40 man roster and if I were a muppet of greater patience I could sit back and wait for things to correct themselves. However, if I had that kind of patience I sincerely doubt I’d be the poster you all know and love/hate. Besides, it’s not as if Oakland’s FO is immune from making mistakes… I mean, Bobby Crosby is still on the books so I can’t just assume that the A’s are going to do the right thing. So allow me to share my opinion in how things should proceed.

The first thing I want to talk about is the current financial structure of the 25 man roster. As of today, the projected 2009 payroll sits at approximately $41 million. This is based on existing contracts, predicted settlements with the A’s arbitration eligible personnel and the fixed salaries due to players with less than three years of big league experience. $30.25 million of that $41 million is tied up in 5 players:

Eric Chavez

Mark Ellis

Bobby Crosby

Huston Street

Justin Duchscherer

Now, these 5 players are expected to play very prominent roles with the A’s in 2009. Duke will likely be asked to front the rotation while there’s a very good chance Street will resume the closer role. Chavez, Ellis and Crosby make up 3/4 of the starting infield. So at first glance it appears as if the A’s have at least invested their money in players who are expected to have full-time roles. Setting aside whatever arguments people might want to make regarding the various talent level and/or abilities of these 5 starters, I’d just like to point out that the A’s have 73% of their team payroll tied up in 5 guys who have had a Hell of a time staying healthy.

Ellis just had shoulder surgery and has only managed 2 full seasons of play in the past 6 years. Chavez hasn’t played a full season since 2005, that’s 3 years and at least as many surgeries ago. Duke has managed partial seasons the last 2 years. Crosby sucked in 2008 but at least he stayed relatively healthy all year, the first time that’s happened since his rookie season in 2004. Street had elbow issues in 2007 and a lingering groin injury that cost him stuff and the closer’s job in 2008. Individually, this might not be much of an issue but collectively these 5 players represent a highly questionable investment for the A’s.

So when I read stories about the A’s being hesitant to go after a big ticket free agent because they don’t want to direct such a large portion of their payroll towards 1 player I can’t help but wonder, how much is that worry justified? The A’s could go out and sign a player to a $20 million annual salary and that would still mean that nearly half of the 2009 payroll was tied up in players with poor health records. My advice to the team if they’re serious about pursuing a top tier free agent? Don’t sign a guy who’s a known health risk! (Yes Furcal, I’m looking at you and your surgically repaired back.) Pay extra for durability.

My next big issue is the actual make-up of the 40 man roster. The A’s currently have 38 spots filled and we know that they’re shopping for a free agent and have traditionally mined the Rule 5 draft for cheap talent, so I’m fine with there being 2 open slots on the 40 man roster. What I’m not fine with are the 11 outfielders taking up space on the 40 man roster. Really? 11 guys to cover 3 positions, sheesh. Compare that to the 12 players the A’s have on the 40 man to play Catcher, 1B, 2B, 3B, and SS. You don’t need that many outfielders, especially when the ones you’d prefer to earn starting roles are so young.

I’m sure most will agree with me when I say that the top of the pecking order includes (2009 age) Travis Buck (25) Jack Cust (30) Aaron Cunningham (23) Carlos Gonzalez (23) and Ryan Sweeney (24). There are lots of ways this combination could work itself out but the basics are this: The A’s will want Gonzalez and Cunningham to play full time and if that’s not going to happen in Oakland then it will happen in Sacramento. If Cunningham and Gonzalez are in Sac then that makes Sweeney the starting CF by default, with Buck and Cust in the corners. This is where things get interesting. Sweeney in CF, Cust in RF isn’t a great defensive alignment. In 2008 the A’s often used Rajai Davis as a defensive substitute in the later innings to replace Cust, however they slipped Davis into CF and bumped Sweeney to RF. While Sweeney can get by in CF he’s better suited to play a corner. I think it’s safe to say that any 2009 25 man roster combination that makes Cust a starting outfielder is going to include a defensive replacement for the later innings. It makes sense that if we go on the assumption that Sweeney is the starting CF that our defensive substitute is a good enough outfielder to play CF, allowing Geren to bump Sweeney to a corner spot and upgrading the defense at two spots in the late innings.

There are 6 other outfielders on the 40 man roster and Javier Herrera and Richie Robnett don’t even belong in the conversation at this point. The 4 guys that are basically auditioning for the role of defensive substitute in a Buck/Sweeney/Cust alignment are Rajai Davis (28) Chris Denorfia (28/29) Matt Murton (27) and Ryan Patterson (25). Patterson is a LF by default because he couldn’t hack it at 2B and Murton is much better suited to play in the corner. Denorfia has missed so much time the past 2 years that it’s tough to say what he could bring to the table in 2009. Davis got it done with the glove and his speed is a definite bonus, but his RH bat is weaker than Murton’s and maybe even Denorfia’s.

It gets even better. If I’m reading my rule book correctly, Murton and Denorfia will join Davis as being out of options for 2009. That means anyone who doesn’t make it on to Oakland’s 25 man roster has to clear waivers before they can be sent to Sacramento. I’m not saying there are any obvious answers here, just some decisions have to be made because the A’s have too many roster slots filled by older outfielders with middling upside. The A’s have one 1B on the 40 man roster and he hit 226/327/348. They’ve got an Is-he-healthy? Eric Chavez at 3B and a can’t hack it Jack Hannahan (don’t go there folks, too easy) as the primary hot corner back-up. Bobby Crosby might be the worst starting SS in the majors and he still gets top billing in the A’s organization!

And of course, all of this alignment speculation gets tossed by the wayside if either Gonzalez or Cunningham shows that they’re ready to play CF in the Show during Spring Training.

(We still haven’t talked about Javier Herrera or Richie Robnett yet, have we?)

The A’s need to get realistic here. They shouldn’t be able to look at the 40 man roster and pull together 5-man OF rotations for their big league and AAA clubs. 11 outfielders on the 40 man roster is ridiculous unless your infield is composed of the likes of Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard… top tier players you control for a long time. That doesn’t describe the current Oakland infield. The A’s need to drop at least 3 of these outfielders from the 40 man roster and find talent to address other organizational needs. In a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world Javier Herrera turns 24 next year, has one option remaining and has been stuck in neutral since 2005. Matt Murton has his supporters, but he’s a corner outfielder who’s been outhit by a 2 years younger Travis Buck. Davis and Denorfia can stick around through ST, the loser of their competition gets to move to a new local. Robnett has two options remaining and had his guts cut open just before the 2008 season started, so he gets a mulligan for now. Patterson is young enough and has accomplished enough to maybe have some trade value; he needs to be shopped vigorously.

Realistically, the A’s could drop Murton, Herrera, Robnett and Patterson from the 40 man roster and they probably wouldn’t feel a thing. The question then becomes, who do the A’s bring in to replace them?