FanPost

Projecting the Friendlies: A's

Yes, we've rolled around to the point at which I actually go out on a limb and say things about the current A's roster. Nice things? Well, I don't know yet, to be honest. Incidentally, I'll be updating the prior three fanposts on the rest of the division, mostly to reflect the gold mine of information which can be found in Sean Smith's defensive projections, here and here. They're unreliable for very young players, so unfortunately they won't do wonders for the A's, but they're a great assimilation of the defensive information we know about guys who've been around a while. The usual caveats: I'm assuming NO transactions other than guys going back and forth to the minors and options being exercised (which isn't an issue for this year's A's). Let's roll.

C: Kurt Suzuki (+15 runs offensively, +5 runs defensively)

Suzuki actually made substantial improvements with his hitting this season which were swallowed up by the fact that he was very lucky in 2007 and a little unlucky in 2008. I look for him to continue improving to slightly better than a league average hitter (which is great for a catcher). He was very good at throwing out basestealers this season, and gave up fewer passed balls in 2008 than 2007 despite catching more than twice as many innings.

1B: Daric Barton (-15 runs offensively, +5 runs defensively)

I'm assuming Daric was a little unlucky this year and makes a little progress going into next year, but overall I think he'd be well served to spend another year in AAA. Learning third base, if possible.

2B: Mark Ellis (0 runs offensively, +15 runs defensively)

+15 is a conservative estimate of how much Mark Ellis is worth to the team. It's hard to overstate just how much of a bargain his new contract is. Carlos Lee is about equally valuable and is earning three times as much money.

SS: Bobby Crosby (-10 runs offensively, 0 runs defensively)

Can we say what you see is what you get from Crosby at this point? The guy has a career 82 OPS+. That's the definition of a black hole, folks. 10 runs below average for a shortstop is almost hard to believe.

3B: Eric Chavez (-5 runs offensively, +5 runs defensively

The above numbers are adulterated by 1/3 of a season of Jack Hannahan, as I don't really feel like I can count on a legitimate full season from Chavez at this point. I have Chavez at 0/+5 and Hannahan at -15/+5, hence the above. (Yes, there's some rounding error in there.) Still, there's fairly good evidence that 3B is not the utter black hole that people make it out to be. With that said, if the A's can acquire a third baseman and move Chavez to first (and Hannahan to Sacramento), that would also be an option.

LF: Matt Holliday (+35 runs offensively, +10 runs defensively)

I'll say this about Holliday, the guy is a damn good baseball player. Problem is, he's a damn good baseball player who's only on the team for one season.

CF: Ryan Sweeney (0 runs offensively, 0 runs defensively)

Ryan Sweeney moves to projected CF status with the Holliday trade. He's still roughly a league-average player.

RF: Travis Buck/Aaron Cunningham (-5 runs offensively, +5 runs defensively)

Aaron Cunningham could use another period in AAA, I think. Unfortunately, Travis Buck is made of porcelain and cannot possibly be counted on for a full season's production. I have them roughly splitting time.

DH: Jack Cust (+10 runs offensively)

This line is starting to become tired, but: if you think Jack Cust is a bad hitter, I hate you and find you stupid.

So the A's position players aren't actually so bad. Unfortunately, the pitching's not going to look so hot.

SP: Justin Duchscherer (+10 runs) I think we have to write in 7 starts of Gio Gonzalez here. Duke himself is probably worth about 15 runs above average in 150 innings, but I'm assuming the other 50 innings are as bad as he is good, so that drops him to a +10 on the season.

Incidentally, I think Gio will be fine in the long run; I expect him to have a good half-season in AAA and be mediocre in MLB next year, then start improving in MLB starting in 2010. Patience, people.

SP: Sean Gallagher (-5 runs)

I'm not sure what to make of Gallagher. His stuff looks great, but he kind of got hammered last year, especially after coming to Oakland, when his control basically fell apart. Part of that might be the shoulder injury he had. If he's over said injury fully, he might be a little better than this. ZiPS has him at about a 4.2 ERA next year, which is solid, but keep in mind that's playing in the Coliseum in front of the Oakland defense.

SP: Dana Eveland (-5 runs)

Kind of the same thing as Gallagher, right? Guy puts up great minor league numbers, shows up at MLB level, suffers inexplicable deterioration of command and walk rate, looks really uncomfortable on the mound, etc.

SP: Dallas Braden (-5 runs)

The delta of .44 runs between Braden's ERA last year and his FIP is pretty typical of Oakland pitchers. It's important not to look at pitchers' numbers in a vacuum. It's also important to account for luck. Braden's made a case for himself over the last two years as a decent #4/#5 starter, but you'd never know it from his 2007 ERA. Well, your ERA would be bad too if your teammates inexplicably converted 6% fewer balls in play into outs than they do for your teammates, and 45% of your baserunners came around to score (a typical number is 25%).

SP: Josh Outman (-10 runs)

Smith is out as the fifth starter, making it more likely that Outman will get the job while the team turns to a depth guy like Kirk Saarloos as the long reliever.

Bullpen: 0 runs

This may seem low, but I'm being very conservative here. Casilla was bad after he came off the DL. Andrew Brown was REALLY bad after he came off the DL, which is weird considering that he went on it with appendicitis. We read about an appendicitis case in Torts class where the guy inexplicably woke up with a busted shoulder and sued (it involved this weird doctrine called res ipsa loquiter, and I'm probably at least a sentence past the point where anyone cares). Maybe that's what happened to the BFP (big friendly pitcher) this season...

Given the fact that he's basically been unhittable in the minors since moving to the pen, I'm going out on a limb here and calling Andrew Bailey for the last bullpen slot.

Devine +5 Ziegler +5 Blevins +5 Bailey 0 Brown -5 Casilla -5 Saarloos -5

I'm open to any critiques of those numbers, though.

Overall: +55 runs, 86-76, +25 runs scored, +30 runs allowed

The Holliday trade represents a short-term upgrade of about 4 wins for the team. Next year, maybe not so much, depending on how much Carlos Gonzalez improves his game.

There are still holes on this roster that need to be filled for the A's to compete this season. First base, shortstop, and starting pitcher, to be specific.