I really believe that the A’s outfielders will all get better. They have basically all played one year at the Major league level together and the newness of that and the comfort zone of the team will help them all. I think Sweeney could be a plus hitter, not so home runs but average and extra base hits. I also feel that Cargon and do the same, he did pretty well there for awhile.
I would love to see Baisley or a young body like Murphy come in and upgrade 3B. Anyone how plays SS instead of Crosby is an upgrade!
I think the pitching can also get a little better with the above comfort zone. They aren’t rookies in the league or on the team anymore. I think a year after Cahill, Mazarro and Anderson come up we have a killer starting 3. Gallagher seemed to really look better after he came back from his injury. I hope he can stay that way because you add a good Gallagher to the above 3 and we can really be contenders.

Of course I am just a positive kind of guy so please pencil in either Murphy or Zimmerman in at 3B for starters.

I agree especially with the moving Hannahan to Sacramento (or Antartcica) part.

I think you’re being optimistic about health of Ellis and Chavez. We know they’re really good when healthy, but they’ve each had some serious health problems. If they’re not healthy in 2009, which is a very good possibility, I think we knock off 4-5 wins.

I’d also expect Suzuki to not be quite as good as 2008. He really surpassed expectations.

I also think you’re being optimistic on Carlos, but that’s not that big a deal with Davis around.

On the pitching side, Braden sucks. He really sucks. ZiPS knows it. I know it. The American people know it. I’d make him about 15 runs below average, and Outman too.

I don’t see you being too pessimistic with anyone. I’d knock off about 5 wins and call it a 78 win team.

If they’re really an 83 win team, it’s time to trade prospects for Matt Holliday and Rick Ankiel and sign Bob Abreu or Jason Giambi. I don’t think that’s the case.

I hope they can win 83 games! I don’t disagree with much of anything that was said in this post…though I will have high hopes for Greg and I hope he doesn’t let me down!

I was playing it cool…I do have very high hopes for Smith and his talent and I think he will prove me right…we’ll all just have to wait and see. I have high expectations for the team..I go into every season with high hopes

This is a potential contender, folks. There’s a lot of uncertainties on the roster (guys who could be 20 runs better or worse than I’m figuring them at) because the team is so young, but I think there’s enough here to make a run at the division.

Music to my ears. I certainly hope that you are right, Paul. Thanks for the analysis.

Make the moves Billy.

Your math, at least to me, makes the case for going out and getting two bats this off-season. Preferably, Giambi would be one and perhaps JJ Hardy (who had a fairly good defensive season at age 26) would be the other, therefore removing the biggest black hole in the lineup with a plus-hitter for his position and a near-lock .850 OPS first baseman. Those numbers, in addition to some nice break out performances from the young pitchers, should do wonders towards making this team a legit post-season contender next year.

in a trade, and then add a FA bat or two I will totally poop my pants……and be happy about it!

Signing Dunn (to replace either Sweeney or Barton), and acquiring a 3B man (I do disagree with you that Chavez will play any meaningful number of innings at 3B) who can contribute in 2009 could easily add enough wins to put us in the picture.

Even if LAAAAAAAAA signs Tex.

This is a potential contender, folks. There’s a lot of uncertainties on the roster (guys who could be 20 runs better or worse than I’m figuring them at) because the team is so young, but I think there’s enough here to make a run at the division. More on that later, of course.

I have to disagree. Even if we add Furcal and a starting pitcher, there’s no way this team is going to contend for anything next year, unless that means keeping things interesting through August.

I was looking at Sean Doolittle stats from college and he walking a lot. Now it seems he focused more on power and striking out a ton. I was just thinking its such an extreme change, did someone in the organization whisper in his ear to try and hit for power? i wonder if he wanted to go back to being more patient, could he? Anyways I love the kid and I think hes our First baseman in 2010.

Also Brett Hunter pitched in the HWL today. Went 2 1/3 innings stricking out the first 6 batters he faced, then gave up a solo shot then a ground out. For 2 1/3IP 1H 1ER 6Ks 0BBs.

1. Question on the math:

Overall: +20 runs, 83-79 -15 runs scored, +35 runs allowed

-15 runs scored I get. But the +35 runs allowed has me flummoxed.

The individual defense “scores” add up to +50 runs, while the pitchers add up to -5. Is the total actually supposed to be +45 runs allowed, or did you employ different (perhaps more sophisticated) permutations to combine pitching and defense into a single number?

(I have a difficult enough time wrapping my mind around the +/- run thing … casually tossing in unmentioned calculations along the way simply isn’t fair. It is as if you are trying to break my brain.)

2. The average AL team used 10 different starting pitchers last year. Nearly 20% of all games were started by straggler, outside-the-core pitchers. Given the thin track record of the projected staff, as well as the unfortunate tendency of A’s players to shed ligaments and limbs as the season progresses, it seems unrealistically optimistic to expect that the five pitchers you highlighted would account for 155 GS (162 minus those 7 Gio starts).

If you replace 30 GS (spread out over all five starters) with Gio-level production, how does that impact the bottom line projection?

3. Cust played 80+ games in the outfield last year, and 60+ in 2007, but you’ve plugged him in for zero in 2009. I guess it seems reasonable to assume that three of Davis/Buck/Cunningham/Denorfia/Sweeney/Whoever will be available at all times, and yet … an injury here, a massive suck there, and voila: Jack Cust, starting left fielder. Does throwing him out there for 50-60 games on defense change the outlook much?

4. Combining some of the comments above with a favorite phrase of yours: If Chavez plays even 50 games at third base next year, I will eat my hat.

5. I’m not nearly as sanguine about Gio’s future as you appear to be. I think he is basically Dallas Braden with a slightly less effective secondary pitch and worse control. It is really, really difficult to avoid sucking in the majors when you lack command and don’t throw hard. Gio can’t get ahead in the count and can’t throw his fastball when he’s behind … alas, this smells suspiciously like “fringe” to me.

6. Great series of posts. I hope you update the projections as signings and trades trickle out, and perhaps re-post them in full sometime in March, once rosters are set in stone (so as to eradicate all shreds of go team! optimism before the season starts, allowing the AN collective to elude the bottomless tarpit of disillusionment that lies at the end of a road paved with ill-considered expectations).

Gallagher’s FIP this year was a 4.48. And this is with all the struggles, all the injury jazz, etc. I really see potential for a big season with him.

I really would like to see a “sell-high” attempt on Greg Smith. Unless he can get that K/BB up, I could see him meeting a really ugly fate next year. There were very few pitchers, I think 2-3, who were able to get away with an ERA under 5 and a K/BB under 1.5. And, his tRA is well above the 5 level.

“Jason Giambi (5.3): The Yankees would like to bring Giambi back at a reasonable rate after buying out his $22 million option for 2009 for $5 million. It seems almost certain that Giambi is headed back to the Athletics, however, particularly after they hired his old strength coach, Bob Alejo, this past week.”

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8291

I have serious concerns about his ability to be effective SP. Here in Toronto I was subjected to 3 years of Josh Towers. One year of which he looked okay, two of which he was truly awful. Other than Greg being LH, I’m not sure there is much difference. There is no room for error. I caught about four of GS starts last year, clearly a small sample size. Am I way off base on this??