Community Organizational Prospect List - #10
by Zonis on Nov 30, 2008 1:51 PM PST
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PrintVin Mazzaro outright wins the #9 slot, so its time for the #10 slot.
AthleticsNation Top Prospect List:
- Trevor Cahill, RHP
- Brett Anderson, LHP
- Chris Carter, 3B/1B
- Aaron Cunningham, CF
- Gio Gonzalez, LHP
- Adrian Cardenas, SS/2B
- Sean Doolittle, 1B/RF
- James Simmons, RHP
- Vin Mazzaro, RHP
New Addition to the Candidates List: Jemile Weeks, 2B makes a reappearance.
CANDIDATES:
Pitchers:
Michel Inoa, RHP
Brett Hunter, RHP
Fautino De Los Santos, RHP
Henry Rodriguez, RHP
Arnold Leon, RHP
Infielders/Catchers:
Josh Donaldson, C
Nino Leyja, SS
Jemile Weeks, 2B
Outfielders:
Rashun Dixon, CF
Corey Brown, CF
POSSIBLES:
Pitchers:
Josh Outman, LHP
Tyson Ross, RHP
Sam Demel, RHP
Andrew Carignan, RHP
Andrew Bailey, RHP
Jared Lansford, RHP
Craig Italiano, RHP
Carlos Hernandez, LHP
Jason Fernandez, RHP
Ryan Webb, RHP
Michael Madsen, RHP
Jamie Richmond, RHP
Jeff Gray, RHP
Travis Banwart, RHP
Ryan Doolittle, RHP
Daniel Thomas, RHP
Ricardo Penalba, RHP
Infield/Catcher:
Dusty Coleman, SS
Jason Christian, SS
Eric Patterson, IF
Petey Paramore, C
Landon Powell,C
Anthony Recker, C
Jeff Baisley, 3B
Cliff Pennington, SS
Gregorio Petit, SS
Justin Sellers, SS
Franklin Contreras, SS
Outfield:
Matt Sulentic, OF
Jeremy Barfield, OF
Matt Spencer, OF/1B
Grant Desme, OF
Tyreace House, OF
Javier Herrera, OF
Danny Putnam, OF
JD Pruit, OF
Robin Rosario, OF
Chris Berroa, OF
Jose Crisostomo, OF
David Thomas, OF
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Future polls
I strongly suspect I’m onto a loser – but I’d like to see Landon powell on the next poll.
from what I can tell, there are at least like 10 people ahead of him to be added to the poll
facepalm.jpg
I think Landon Powell is a goose that's cooked
Won’t make my list a’tall.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
On the other hand, his liver will make an excellent pate
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
In contrast to mine, which will only make for
a pretty solid Science Lab.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If the A's trade him around December 24th, would he be a Christmas goose?
God, this deserves a QOTM even though it’s really more like SLOTM (straight line of the month).
More jokes on this front coming as I think of them.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Inoa and DLS should be next
People wouldn’t like Donaldson as much if he had been in the org the whole year. DLS would have been in the top 3 easily before the injury, and I think people are dropping him way too much.
The A's colors are green and gold.
+1/-1
If this was Around the Horn, you’d be back where you were.
DLS is going to be 23 next season. He’s going to miss at least the first 2 months. The rest of the year is, optimistically, going to be spent getting back to where he was before the injury. If we’re lucky he’ll start 2010 in AA. Not many 24-year-old top prospects in AA.
TJS is not some kind of routine procedure. Even discounting the lost development time, something like 25% of guys come back from it with diminished stuff.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
It doesn't even have to be diminished stuff, it could be loss of command
The monster at the end of this blog.
I don't think his age is a big problem
If he comes back with diminished stuff, then that’s bad, but if not he’ll just make it to the majors later than normal. Even after one full season if his stuff is mostly back, he wouldn’t be a liability in the bullpen for Oakland, so I don’t know what the problem with his age is.
The A's colors are green and gold.
Agree, mikeA - Diminished stuff is a concern, but
if his stuff is still there as it was before he’ll just be a great prospect whose age magically increases two years. Kind of like Miggy, actually. :-)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Or Casilla...
Tejada’s performance was still good for his age. Casilla’s, not so great.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Tyson Ross
Is Brett Hunter that much more highly touted?
It seems Ross had more impressive numbers in what I have to imagine is a tougher league (Pac 10 to WCC).
They're similar prospects, but Hunter is considered to have a bit better pitches
I like Ross a lot, but the guy has got to work out his mechanics or he’ll keep injuring himself over and over again.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Donaldson might not even be able to stay at Catcher!
His overall numbers are OK, not great.
Seriously folks, just because he’s in High-A doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a better prospect than the folks at lower levels. It means he’s been a pro longer.
The monster at the end of this blog.
My figuring on Donaldson, though, is that if he doesn't stick at catcher
he’s next likeliest to stick at 3B – which for the A’s is even better anyway. I think he can hit; the downside, of course, is that he hasn’t proven this at higher levels, but so far that’s due to lack of opportunity, not to any failure at higher levels. 2009 will obviously be key for him.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
One things for sure...
This system is stacked. I could make another top ten list right now that I would be confident in.
I wonder if we kept Cahill and Anderson 1 and 2 and picked from the remaining prospects to fill out a new top 10 where it would rank in the league.
by throttle mathius on Nov 30, 2008 2:53 PM PST reply actions
Voted Rashun again by the way.
And I am struggling a lot on whether to vote on upside or probability on this list because if we used upside I have a feeling the list would not include Mazzaro Simmons and even Gio yet.
by throttle mathius on Nov 30, 2008 2:56 PM PST up reply actions
People should be voting based on a mix of the two
’Course, no one has ever come up with a surefire Ceiling/Probability ratio so ’tis all a balancing act.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I think it should just be two different lists.
Just like there should be two different lists for positional players and pitchers.
by throttle mathius on Nov 30, 2008 2:59 PM PST up reply actions
That's a cop-out, though
Just because it’s not easy to weigh the two doesn’t mean you shouldn’t try… and just because we don’t know what the right answer is doesn’t mean there is no right answer.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Agreed, i guess.
Not saying its not fun but I am more excited about a lot of the 10-20 guys than some of the top 10. Just saying.
by throttle mathius on Nov 30, 2008 3:10 PM PST up reply actions
I really like the depth from #20-40
In a lot of systems, those guys are future backups or extreme longshots. In this system, I’m pretty confident that 3 or 4 of them will be good MLB regulars.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I think there is a real possibility
of getting a fifty percent turnout from the 10-20 list…with a few possible stars.
by throttle mathius on Nov 30, 2008 3:02 PM PST up reply actions
Voted Weeks
This was definitely the hardest choice for me thus far in the list. There were a few guys on the list with a higher ceiling, but I think Weeks has pretty good upside with a good chance of reaching it.
I liked Weeks in college and I think his approach at the plate will carry over as he moves through the minors. I think he can hit over .300 with a high OBP as a switch hitter with great speed, sounds like the ideal lead-off guy.
I agree that he was a bit of an overdraft and I would rather have Wallace or Hicks, but I think that once you stop comparing him to what te A’s could have picked it’s easier to see that Weeks is a pretty good prospect.
Agreed
Can’t fault Weeks for where he was drafted, all you can do is look at his numbers and I like what I see.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Nov 30, 2008 3:14 PM PST up reply actions
What's crazy is it'll just get better since we pick 11th
I think.
I went with Donaldson, I’ll have trouble voting for Inoa before 15th or so, just because he’s nothing but scouting reports at this point.
And DLS at this point is a non-factor in this list to me. Tommy John, improving recovery rates or not, still scares me.
Weeks
I think at this point in the list MI are more valuable to the A’s than pitchers. Even if Hunter is a better prospect and has the upside of being more valuable down the road I have to give it to Weeks because he plays a premium position and has shown the ability to hit in college and his taste of the minors.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
Dixon, obviously...I voted for him from 7 on down
I just don’t see how he’s so far down people’s lists. He’s got the tools to be a Hanley Ramirez-type hitter in the big leagues. Yes, he’s 18, and yes, he’s only played in the AZL, and yes, he’s years away, but the upside is monstrous. If we were trading a player on our list for “Player X”, can you honestly say you’d deal away Rashun Dixon before you’d deal James Simmons? Really? I don’t think it’s even close.
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Nov 30, 2008 3:29 PM PST reply actions
I think Inoa is siphoning votes from Dixon
Dixon does have a ton of upside, but Inoa’s ceiling is even higher. If your going to pick a prospect largely based on potential it makes sense to grab Inoa before Dixon.
I think they should both be in the top ten.
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Nov 30, 2008 3:40 PM PST up reply actions
1. Cahill
2. Anderson
3. Carter
4. Cunningham
5. Inoa
6. Dixon
7. Rodriguez
8. Cardenas
9. Gonzalez
10. Simmons
That’s my list.
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Nov 30, 2008 3:43 PM PST up reply actions
OK, so, why is Cunningham on here then?
He certainly doesn’t have Dixon’s upside.
It’s clear that you are, in fact, evaluating guys to some extent based on their likelihood of succeeding— you’re just making a hash of it…
This list is like those March Madness brackets where the guy picks like 15 first round upsets— sure you’ll get lucky and get a few of them right, but your bracket will look like swiss cheese by the second weekend.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
It's a combination of both ceiling and probability.
I still think that combination swings in favor of the kids in this scenario. I think it works well to think about it in terms of the order you’d be willing to get rid of them. Cahill is the player I’d least like to trade in a deal with anyone, with Anderson close behind. After them, I’d hold onto Carter, and then probably Cunningham, and then after them I would rather trade any prospect in our farm system before I would trade Inoa or Dixon. I would even deal Simmons before I’d deal Henry Rodriguez. Maybe this isn’t the best way to think of it, but it’s the way I do.
I also suck at March Madness brackets, so maybe my opinion isn’t worth mentioning. Who knows. Opinions are like assholes, everyone has one and they all stink.
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Nov 30, 2008 4:22 PM PST up reply actions
Heavy on potential
But if you have Inoa ranked ahead of Dixon on your list, why are you voting for Dixon instead of Inoa on the poll?
Good point
I started typing the bit about Dixon and was going to say I’d put his ceiling as the highest, but then I remembered about Inoa. So I guess I out-thought myself.
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Nov 30, 2008 4:19 PM PST up reply actions
Or think of it this way
If they were in another system, would you trade James Simmons straight-up for Michel Inoa or Rashun Dixon? I would in a second.
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Nov 30, 2008 4:24 PM PST reply actions
I wouldn't make that trade
I think Dixon and Inoa look more valuable because the A’s are loaded with prospects right now. A lottery ticket seems a lot more palatable when you have plenty of other options. In a stacked system the high risk / high reward guys are more fun than the reliable ones, but in a straight up comparison I think a successful AA starter is more valuable than 16 and 17 year old wild cards.
I agree
I have to imagine the Mets would trade Jefry Marte (for reference: BA’s #3 prospect in the GCL, roughly comparable to Dixon) for James Simmons in a New York minute if they were offered the deal, because they lack depth at the upper levels of their farm— and if they wouldn’t, they’re fools.
Simmons only looks bad because he’s constantly being compared to the stud-filled A’s pitching group. He’d be the top pitching prospect in probably 10-15 systems out of 30.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Any reports on Donaldson's catching ability?
It looks like Donaldson is going to get the #10 spot on our list, and the more I look at his numbers the more convinced I get that his bat will play and play well at catcher, but I haven’t heard much about his defense. I know there are questions but how bad is he? He has made it a year and a half of the minors and stayed at catcher, what are the odds he has to move later?
IIRC (and I may not),
Donaldson got about average marks for his catching ability overall. Sickels said “strong arm, adequate mobility, mediocre ability overall,” in 2008 but went on to say he could be average and that could be good enough for Donaldson to make it as a catcher.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Seconded
Outman has pitched decently at AAA and at the major league levels. I think he should be next on the list.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Nov 30, 2008 4:57 PM PST up reply actions
Agreed
At the very least Leon should get relegated and replaced with Outman (who will be my pick as soon as Inoa wins a poll).
Leon should stay
Leon is just as good of a prospect as some of the other people on the list. He was dominating AAA level competition at 19. There is no reason Outman can’t replace Donaldson is he wins.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Nov 30, 2008 5:53 PM PST up reply actions
+1
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
For adding people to the list, I've thought of keeping the list even with Pitchers and Position Players
if a Position Player gets voted on, I’ll replace him with a position player. If a Pitcher gets voted on, I’ll replace him with a pitcher.
facepalm.jpg
that makes no sense
those posting why a certain prospect should be #10 should also suggest who should be added next.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
Who should I add next then?
Outman, Ross, Coleman, Christian or Sulentic?
And would it matter that much which order I put them on since none of them will probably win for 3 or 4 more rounds?
Thats why I thought of keeping an even list-since the ones being added now won’t really come into play for a few more rounds, the exact order they are added is not as much the issue, since by the time it becomes an issue, their “group” will all be on the board.
facepalm.jpg
yeah i don’t think it matters much, because they won’t win for another 5-6 rounds in any case.
but i wouldn’t do it based on position, hell you making an executive decision based on who you believe is more talented makes more sense. if you don’t want to do it, i’m sure PT or grover would be willing to make suggestions.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
Outman or Coleman
I think Outman is the most diserving to go next, but if it must be a position player for balance I like Coleman much more then Sulentic.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Nov 30, 2008 6:18 PM PST up reply actions
He has a shot to be a starter, for sure
He could very well be our #5 next year if we do not get someone to replace him, with Smith going to the Rockies.
Duke
Gallagher
Eveland
then who?
it will be a battle in Spring Training between Gio, Outman and Braden. And looking at that, I think it wouldn’t be such a bad idea to sign RJ after all….
facepalm.jpg
I guess I would put him third on that list
I was thinking of how Outman projects long term and not just as a stop-gap for next year untill the next group of guys are ready.
Long term, if he is stil with the A's, it will be as a reliever
But thats less because of Outman and more because of the top of this list:
Cahill
Anderson
Gonzalez
Simmons
Mazzaro
All of those guys will be “ready” in 2010.
facepalm.jpg
I'm not sure how good it is
to be “ready”.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
if the a's are trying to compete next year
gio better not start the season in the rotation.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
Poochini objects.
Or wants the Phillies’ phone number.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'm sticking with Inoa until he wins a round- and I still think he should be a
top 10 guy because of his outrageous ceiling and potential.
Just for fun, I went back and found one of the scouting reports on him to re-read it and remind myself why there was so much hype and why he was called a “once in a decade talent” or better… and that was enough to reassure me I’m not “misremembering” anything or overestimating his potential.
by still bills kingdom on Nov 30, 2008 5:31 PM PST reply actions
so shouldn't inoa be #1 then?
i’m going with donaldson / FDLS types before a 16-year-old kid.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
I'd take Inoa over FLDS
Because hyped 16 Year Olds are better than busted fireballers who are 7 years older.
facepalm.jpg
Or even busted fireballers who are the same age
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
busted?
it’s TJ, not a mark mulder shoulder.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
TJ Surgery isnt nearly as bad
as shoulder. You are correct.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
Well, I didn't say Inoa should be #1, I said "top ten" because I also give plenty of weight
to where these players are in their development curve as well as their potential.
But I’d take Inoa over Donaldson at this point and I’d take him over DLS as well because nobody knows how DLS is going to pitch after the TJ surgery. If DLS comes back from that surgery with the same stuff or close to it, and proves he can pitch as effectively again, then sure he rockets back up the list and passes Inoa for the present time probably.
At any rate, you can go with whomever you choose- and so can I, and I thought that was the point of this exercise in the first place…
by still bills kingdom on Nov 30, 2008 6:17 PM PST up reply actions
right, and anyone can comment on anyone else’s choices.
that’s the point of doing this exercise on a public blog in the first place.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
And I can comment on your comment -
and so on, and so on, and so on!
If you know the ad this refers to, then you are officially old.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Absolutely- and I'm glad you did, and the point you raised about the uncertainty
of Inoa realizing his potential was well-taken. I just didn’t see where you got the “he should be #1” bit from, so I was responding to that.
And because you’re rating Donaldson and DLS ahead of Inoa at this point, I thought I should at least discuss a little why I’d take Inoa over DLS right now. I didn’t really get into Donaldson, but for the record it’s because I’m waiting to see if he really sticks at catcher, and if his struggles earlier this past year with the stick were a “figuring it out” period or indicative of something more. He’s definitely top 20 in my book right now, though.
by still bills kingdom on Nov 30, 2008 7:02 PM PST up reply actions
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