Admit it Billy Beane, you were wrong about the Surge
by connie mack on Nov 3, 2008 11:44 PM PST
Email
PrintI think it is time for BB to fess up, not only was he wrong about signing Eric Chavez to the long term contract that he did, but also (that one is for you Nico) Chavvy's shoulders, back, hamstrings, groins, ankles, wrists, fingers and head are not going to recover to play 3B at an All Star level during the contract.
That's okay, mistakes happen, but until this gets acknowledged, the FALSE HOPE THAT CHAVVY IS GOING TO GET WELL COULD COST THE A'S AT LEAST ONE EXTRA YEAR OF REBUILDING.
I think Chavvy needs to be treated as follows:
1. Long Term DL, get completely healthy
2. Hit only at DH with the goal of getting Chavvy's old bat back as a DH every day.
3. After two months of hitting every day, if Chavvy feels like playing 1B, give it a shot.
The advantage of this approach is that we then no longer settle for guys like Jack Hannahan as our 3B, we hold open tryouts at 3B.
From our system: Baisley, Barton, Crosby (maybe the position switch and demotion from SS will jolt his stick)
Cheap outside options: Dallas MacPherson. Russel Branyan both free agents
Wildcards: Edgardo Alfonso (finally healthy?) some guy from Japan, Hank Blalock (if he checks out medically)
My main point is that Beane's inability to say he was wrong about the Chavez contract in the first place has prevented him from cutting losses at 3b. there is a saying among stock traders: "never let a trade become an investment". Beane's inability to acknowledge the poor outcome of the Chavez contract, coupled with his bad luck in the health department, has crippled the A's far more than the contract itself.
UPDATE: one other wildcard, trade back for Swisher, if possible, and throw him at 3B. He's athletic enough.
2nd UPDATE: Add Jesus Guzman to the list, and while we are at it, whoever the backup 3B in Pittsburgh is now, since they picked up LaRoche.
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It would be interesting to try McPherson.
I hear he’s not that great defensivly, but he has power, and thats something we do not have.
Maybe he can pull a Nelson Cruz?
facepalm.jpg
McPherson
I think the Marlins may be moving forward with Dallas at 3B and Cantu at first, unless Gaby Sanchez is getting the job next season.
There’s a pretty big difference between what Cruz and McPherson did this year, especially when you consider the launching pad that Dallas played in. Their MLE’s this season were .939 and .723, respectively.
by CapgrasDelusion on Nov 4, 2008 4:47 PM PST up reply actions
he can't play at the major league level
and has proven it over and over again.
waiting for pt to chime in with an MLE’s post
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
Been done
See Capgras’ post right above yours.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
zing
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
Wildcards: Edgardo Alfonso (finally healthy?)
Are you f%&@ing kidding me? Yes, the A’s need a healthy 3rd baseman but they sure as hell do not need a rotting corpse as a stand in…..
I don't see the downside in that try
especially if he signs a minor league contract.
They're called RUNS for a reason.
Edgardo Alfonso?
I’d rather run the corpse of Chavez out there than give Alfonso a chance.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
Again, sign him to a minor league contract
give him winter ball to get in shape. He’s only 35 years old, and was better than Hannahan. A $50,000 gamble would only represent upside. Not as a long term solution, but as a cheap stopgap, better than Hannahan for one year.
They're called RUNS for a reason.
He's been out of the Major for two years and hasn't actually been better than Hannahan since 2004 ...
I mean, really?
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
He's only 35 years old?
Well, Chavez is only 31 next season.
Get him back into shape? Why do you think he can get back into shape? All the injury concerns that Chavez faces, also apply to Alfonzo.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
maybe exhume Morgan Ensberg while we're at it
"This is Rickey, calling on behalf of Rickey."
by scatterbrian on Nov 4, 2008 12:15 PM PST up reply actions
Chavez is a non-entity
Any and all plans about the A’s future should assume that Chavvy will not play a single game. The A’s need to find a 3b who can hit and a SS who can field adequately and not suck with the stick. Then they need at least one big bat. If Chavvy comes back and gets a single hit it’s an added bonus.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Nov 4, 2008 12:46 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I agree 100%
They're called RUNS for a reason.
How bout we actually see what he cant when hes healthy
before we make these kinda posts. Even a 75% Chavy is much better than anything we have or could get.
My bold prediction for 09’: Chavez will be healthy and play like its 2003.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
How bout we actually see what he can do when hes healthy*
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
The problem with waiting
is that it provides an excuse to keep running Hannahan out there. He is a replacement player. Somewhere out there is a two to three win upgrade at 3B over Hannahan. Every day we play him, we’re postponing the audition.
Bill Walsh used to say: “As soon as you realize a player can’t do the job, you cut them and start trying different guys until someone seizes the position.”
They're called RUNS for a reason.
It doesn't preclude trying out anyone in our system or anyone who would be willing to sign a MiLB contract ...
it only affects acquiring a real player, which you aren’t really suggesting.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
its not like theres a whole lot behind chavez
that is getting held back. we might as well see if he can produce at all and be prepared for him not to produce.
{Move(runners)Over.org sponsors full-page "General (Manager) BeaneTradeUs" ad in the NYT}
Oh, if people only knew how frugal we are. @('.')@
chavez is a non factor to me
he’ll never be that star or have an mvp caliber yr…treat it as a sunk cost and find better players…he’s like the mark ellis of 3b. if healthy play good defense, add some veteran influence. if he can give you 20hr/80rbi…great…even better if he’s somewhat healthy and gets some trade value.
Even when he wasn't that healthy Ellis played good defense.
I think that Chavvy just won’t get much better. He’s had surgeries, but after he says he’s better something else happens and he needs another one. I honestly don’t know what to do with him… wait it out until his contract expires? ummm….maybe there’s a change at 1B? but I doubt it….
This is hard.
Awww… Unicorn's optimistic. And a cheeseball. That’s cute. ~Whiteshoes40
BB suggested that he will get a someone in case Chavy can't make it
I also think he won’t be going over to 1B, he will be 3B and DH if he can play this year.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Not Beane's fault
Even though Chavez’s deal didn’t work out, it was the right deal to make. Chavez at the time was getting better every season, and he was still very young. There’s no way beane or anybody could have predicted chavez would have all these health issues. There is nobody to blame here, the outcome is just unfortunate. ….And the crosby to 3rd base is probably the worst idea i’ve ever heard.
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
Penciling Crosby in to play any position for the A's;
is the worst idea I’ve ever heard!
"What do we do with Crosby? Well, in my neighborhood, trash goes out on Mondays." ~ Nico
I don't want to see Barton
become another ‘anointed one’ like Crosby, that’s why I like the idea of another position switch.
They're called RUNS for a reason.
i don't see what barton has to do with moving crosby to 3rd
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
The point is that 3B is a bigger hole than SS
Crosby can play 3B as well as Hannahan, with an equally pathetic stick. Gregorio Petit can play SS as well as Crosby, with an equally pathetic stick. Maybe the shock will help him, but if it doesn’t, there is no downside.
I have great hopes for Barton’s ability to play 3B. He demonstrated athleticism and range, he has potential to be a good hitter, he’s young and cheap, and he currently plays a position with two solid prospects a year or two behind him (Doolittle and Carter).
Also, if Chavez does get reasonably healthy, he could play 1B, which takes stress off his arm.
They're called RUNS for a reason.
Barton has never shown that he would ever be able to play 3B
He was actually pretty bad in AAA when they tried him there.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
At the time he did that, he was bad at 1B too...
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
yep
even though he wasn’t a great catcher to begin with, 3B is a common landing spot for guys drafted as offensive-minded catchers.
"This is Rickey, calling on behalf of Rickey."
by scatterbrian on Nov 4, 2008 11:17 AM PST up reply actions
I would rather play hannahan at 3rd base than crosby
They have similar batting lines, but hannahan has the superior glove, especially at 3rd base. And if Chavez can at least step foot on the field he will be a better option than either of them.
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
I'm not saying Blame Billy Beane
which is blasphemy on this site. I’m saying the desire to realize value out of the Chavez contract is preventing the A’s from truly moving forward at 3B.
The fact he wrote a contract that didn’t work out is less than crippling, sticking to the deal in the face of all evidence and trying to get a return on the investment from a battered Chavez that doesn’t have the arm he used to have while playing 3B, is hurting the evolution of the team.
I have zero problem with putting Barton there as a long term solution, but let him either win the position outright, or go down to AAA, get 600 at bats and play 3B for a whole year before giving him the spot.
They're called RUNS for a reason.
You're misunderstanding the concept of sunk costs
The future cost to the A’s to play Eric Chavez is ZERO. Not even the league minimum, ZERO dollars.
There’s nothing to lose by trying to get him healthy. And there’s no reason the A’s can’t bring in 3 or 4 guys and have a competition for the spot. If Chavez is healthy, the “survivor” ends up being the backup. I’ve been beating the Russell Branyan drum for months now— bring in him, Baisley, Hannahan and Guzman and you’ve got a pretty healthy competition for the spot.
(I also feel obliged to point out that Nick Swisher throws left-handed. He’s a non-option at third.)
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I understand what a sunk cost is
but there is also an opportunity cost, as long as we think he is coming back to third, we give a less than full effort to get a major league quality 3B. that shift in the mind is what is holding the team back.
Of course we play Eric Chavez at 3B if he gets healthy, he’s great when he’s healthy. But he’s not.
I didn’t say cut him, I said put him on the long term DL until he’s healthy, and then DH him, and if he holds up for two months and wants to push it, try him in the field then.
With no viable backup, the temptation is too great to try him at 3B too soon.
Open competition, with no preconditions, is exactly what I want at 3B, anyone is invited.
As for Swisher, he certainly has the athleticsm, I don’t know enough about that part of baseball to know why a lefthander can’t play the position.
They're called RUNS for a reason.
It doesn't make sense unless you actually imagine yourself at third base
and then try to make throws lefthanded to “first.” They typically involve an extra rotation of 90-180 degrees relative to what a righthander has to do. In particular it’s virtually impossible to field a bunt and throw to first base in time.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
wow
is all i have to say about your last sentence.
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
You're exactly right except for one minor minor detail
Chavvy costs us a 40 man slot. Of course, I’m not advocating releasing him, his potential far and away outweighs an extra roster slot, but if he doesn’t get healthy in another year or so, I might start to consider it. Also, does his contract have any buyouts, al la Mark Mulder? Or are we stuck with eating his salary completely until the contract is up?
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 4, 2008 10:38 AM PST up reply actions
He has a $12 million option with a $3 million buyout for 2011
2009 and 2010 are guaranteed.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
If he is on the long term DL (60 Day or longer)
He doesn’t take up a roster spot on the 40 man roster. That’s why I say he has to hit his way off the long term DL. Then we have one more position to work with.
They're called RUNS for a reason.
define long term DL
I’m pretty sure he has been on long term DL. and if your definition is different, how do we know when to bring him back? It’s easier said than done and the results are impossible to predict. And of course they will play him at DH first, that’s what they’ve been doing.
"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra
I believe longterm dl is 60 day
my understanding is that if you are on the 60 day DL, you don’t take up a roster spot.
you are right, they DH’ed him first for like one week, and then decided they needed an upgrade at 3B. (they were right!). My point is the pressure of such a weak substitute at 3B clouds the thinking and causes a rushing of Chavez back.
They're called RUNS for a reason.
keep him there until
he’s ready to play every day
They're called RUNS for a reason.
There's no way of knowing whether or not he's ready to play every day ...
except by playing him …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
I have a hard time saying anybody is wrong when a previously durable player falls apart
without any warning signs.
Any GM who gives Harden a long-term big-money deal deserves criticism when he’s hurt. Chavez wasn’t that type of player before.
If you’re saying Beane is wrong for the Chavez deal, then you’re saying you don’t like ANY long-term deals. And actually, that’s fine. But I don’t think that’s what you’re saying.
by thejd44 on Nov 4, 2008 9:01 AM PST reply actions
I don't think that's entirely true
IIRC, Chavez has had problems with his shoulder dating all the way back to high school.
Oh, if people only knew how frugal we are. @('.')@
I was okay with the Chavez deal at the time
though even then, I preferred Tejada, and considered the failure to even offer him a contract insightful as to how BB operates. He seems to have a weakness for settling on players he feels are undervalued, and then sometimes overpaying to get them.
They're called RUNS for a reason.
Who has he ever overpaid?
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
He overpaid to acquire Bobby Kielty
He overpaid to acquire Jeremy Brown, by using a 1st round draft pick.
He definitely (although with hindsite, I’ll grant you, overpaid for Esteban Loaizaq).
He overpaid for Mike Piazza.
He overpaid by extending BoCro’s contract.
It does happen, and I acknowledge that I am cherrypicking past results, but it does happen.
They're called RUNS for a reason.
I think you're confusing "didn't work out" with "were overpaid" ...
And not for nothing, but Jeremy Brown was a successful pick — most late first round picks never make it to the majors.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
I challenge you to find a single analyst or article anywhere in baseball that argued Crosby's contract was an overpay at the time it was signed
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Are you saying BoCro isn't overpaid?
Devo asked, who has he overpaid? Despite the fact it didn’t seem so at the time, BoCro has been drastically overpaid for his performance, sure there was bad luck, and unlucky health, but the production has not merited the dollars. It may have seemed like an okay move at the time, but it hasn’t proved out to be. Coincidentally, I think Beane was trying to swing for the fences and prove how smart he was to let Miggy go, as if the long term contract for BoCro was justification for letting Miggy go, and retaining Chavez.
They're called RUNS for a reason.
Beane had to make a choice. We couldn't keep both Chavez and Tejada.
Tejada was coming off an MVP season and would cost a bunch more that BB had to spend and, at the time he had a replacement in Crosby. The fact that Crosby kept getting hurt and then didn’t produce as promised was not BB’s fault. He could have let Chavy go and kept Tejada but he had no one to replace Chavy.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Crosby hasn't been overpaid
Over the last 3 years, he has been paid like a player who was about 2 wins over replacement level total… which is exactly what he was.
It’s very difficult to overpay for a pre-free agency player.
In any event, though, it’s moronic to just go around after the fact picking on contracts that turned out to have poor results. Every contract involves some risk. If none of your contracts turn out poorly, you are not signing sufficiently risky contracts.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
It should be pointed out
that the determining factor for “is so and so overpaid?” should not be measured by what the “going rate” is. IOW, simply because we got Chavez at a bargain rate for good third basemen, doesn’t mean we didn’t overpay, necessarily. Were the results worthy of the biggest contract any Oakland Athletic had received up to that point? — that has to be the question. And the answer determines whether one was overpaid or not.
I needed a team so I wouldn’t turn into one of the eighty million pink hat-wearing Bud Light-drinking mulleted idiots at Fenway.
That's complete nonsense.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
How come?
Apples going for $100 apiece, and you get one for $50 … that means you didn’t overpay? Because the going rate is $100? The question has to be was the apple worth $50 to you … why is that complete nonsense?
I needed a team so I wouldn’t turn into one of the eighty million pink hat-wearing Bud Light-drinking mulleted idiots at Fenway.
A more apt analogy ...
would be something along the lines of, apples going for 75 cents … which is a more or less normal price … you buy it, you eat it … then you discover that you are allergic to apples …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
I agree with you devo
if you’re saying that the end result is something we couldn’t have predicted … and crying over spilled milk doesn’t do much good at this point.
Just not sure if I agree that because Chavez came at a price very reasonable compared to other contracts, that this means he wasn’t overpaid. I don’t see why this is such a ridiculous statement.
I needed a team so I wouldn’t turn into one of the eighty million pink hat-wearing Bud Light-drinking mulleted idiots at Fenway.
Well ...
from a certain perspective, it is undeniably true …
Chavez’ production has not matched his pay check, er go, he is overpaid.
Simple enough, true enough, but also more or less pointless and misleading.
If you buy a dozen eggs for $1.99 — it’s a perfectly reasonable price — before paying, you even check them to make sure none are cracked. After the purchase, though, you take them home, but on the way, your dog pickles jumps on the shopping bag and smashes eight of them. Would you then say you overpaid for the eggs? Certainly you aren’t getting $1.99 worth of value out of the eggs — and you did make a decision to purchase a product that you knew was breakable. Did you overpay for those eggs?
I think it’s pretty silly to argue that we should use a definition that makes the standards derived from it completely irrelevent.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
no money has ever changed hands in my yoinking of a sigline
So that would be sigline slut.
Did you overpay for those eggs? @('.')@
Beane should never have agreed to walk him
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Are you saying that Greg Smith broke Eric Chavez?
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
I want to beat the crap out of Greggles, too.
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
You really want to suggest that the proper way to rank a player
is by drawing up a list of the contracts that his organization has offered to players in the past, putting it in some kind of rank order of most money, and then questioning whether he ranked above or below that rank on his performance to determine the contract’s value?
There are so many anomalies with that, it’s not even funny. If two teams with the same payroll sign two identical players to two identical contracts with identical performance, but one of them signed A-Rod previously and the other one didn’t, the contract by the team that signed A-Rod is a better contract?
I could go on from there. This is such an obviously silly idea that it’s not worth bothering.
As for your second analogy, perhaps the correct move is to “not buy any apples,” but yes, any reasonable interpretation of value would say that getting the $50 apple is a bargain, not least because you could then turn around and sell it to someone else for $99 and turn a profit in the process.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I guess if you just like to be able to always be right ...
pointing out what is obvious in hindsight is an excellent exercise in inanity …
My preference is to discuss things in meaningful ways that help us to expand our knowledge and understanding … but, hey, that’s just me.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
I'm late to the party,
but I have probably laughed heartily at 11 things in this thread.
Awesome dialogue all the way around.
"Some of the men didn't wait for the women and children to jump off the sinking ship that is our season." - 67MARQUEZ
by notsellingjeans on Nov 5, 2008 4:02 PM PST up reply actions
From age 22-26, Chavez played in
150+ games in every year except for 2004, when his hand was shattered by a fastball, and posted a composite >120 OPS+. An eight-year old shoulder issue that had not caused him any visible problems would have been rightly ignored.
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
I don't want to beat a dead horse
I said I was okay with the Chavez deal. But since he has been hurt the failure to land an above average backup has cost the team dearly.
They're called RUNS for a reason.
I'm not arguing that he shouldn't have been extended
I’ve always been in favor of the Chavez-over-Tejada decision (and of the opinion that that is in fact a false dichotomy).
I’m just pointing out that Chavez did have a slight injury history.
And I’d also add that his years of highest productivity and most consistent health, while falling in his peak physical years, also coincided with the supposed/acknowledged high water mark of PED use in MLB.
Oh, if people only knew how frugal we are. @('.')@
::rolls eyes::
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
I don't understand why you're pointing out his
10-year old shoulder owie. If it’s not germane to the discussion/decision, then don’t bring it up.
Same goes for PEDs. If you’re actually suggesting it as a possibility, then come out and say it. Don’t hide behind a “just sayin’.” If you have a point, make it.
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
k
I think Chavez’ shoulder has had significant damage since high school, and that its debility was masked (and his durability and production enhanced) by his taking PEDs for a couple of years (esp. while Giambi was still on the team), and that his breakdown since then has been, in large part, a result of his having stopped taking them.
And, no, I have no evidence to support that.
Oh, if people only knew how frugal we are. @('.')@
Good. Now you're on record, conspiromonkey.
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
Boo.
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
Dewey defeats Truman Capote.
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
I'm glad I'm not the only one who has made the Chavez/PED connection
Though I always suspected that PEDs were one of the reasons Beane chose Chavez over Tejada
Two conflicting thoughts, and no proof for either, but people are nuts to think it’s impossible.
by thejd44 on Nov 4, 2008 1:23 PM PST up reply actions
not incompatible theories
The corollary to my baseless speculation is that Beane approached Chavvy and Miggy, asked each separately whether he’d agree to (a) ‘fess up about PED use and/or (b) not use PEDs any longer were either to be extended. Chavvy agreed, Miggy didn’t.
Oh, if people only knew how frugal we are. @('.')@
As much as we like Billy Beane
The man never admits he’s wrong about anything and there are many major busts
His ego is the size of the state and that costs him and us often.
Having said that, let’s hope he signs a couple of free agent bats that cost more than he normally spends, are younger of course and don’t end up a lame duck contract like Esteban in terms of wasted money.
Yes, we could have used a healthy Chavez who had he used his brain, would have had surgery three or four years ago. A’s should have put the pressure on him to do so instead of playing hurt. I feel his lack of mental toughness would have prevented him from being that elite player had he remained healthy anyway but at least he would have hit 30 bombs and been productive had he been forced to fix his problems years ago.
Should have kept Tejada over him but Billy was blinded by Crosbyitis.
by Trainman on Nov 4, 2008 9:48 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
What good would be "admitting he was wrong"?
What positives come out of that?
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I can't think of a single one at the moment....
Especially not Beane.
Awww… Unicorn's optimistic. And a cheeseball. That’s cute. ~Whiteshoes40
Eric Byrnes
Asked if he wishes he still had Byrnes, Beane chuckles. “I’m not allowed to say that, but we can make some assumptions.”
That’s from Sports Illustrated, September 07. Not a public admission, but you can tell he knows.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
The irony is delicious considering Byrnes' play since September 07
Can't get enough of the Oakland A's or Golden State Warriors? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's and Golden Stat Hoops
Depends on whether you count "trading away/releasing previously favored players"
If you do, then Beane has admitted to tons of mistakes. If you don’t, then, yeah, GM’s don’t really admit mistakes.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Other than his first season in Baltimore
Tejada has been declining pretty steadily. Questions about his age and PED use were probably also factors in that decision. And no, a flukey AAA season by Crosby did not help matters.
"This is Rickey, calling on behalf of Rickey."
by scatterbrian on Nov 4, 2008 11:15 AM PST up reply actions
Hmm?
Tejada 4 seasons with Baltimore, by OPS+: 131, 128, 126, 109.
In his MVP year: 128. In his last season with the A’s: 111.
There was no “steady” decline. The declined happened in 2007.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
If you factor in defense, he was declining overall ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
If you factor in FRAA / WARP
he was declining overall.
Tejada’s UZR from 2003-2006, runs above average, totals: (-9), 8, (-5), (-3)
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
you forgot the 92 in Houston last season
his WARP3 the last five seasons: 11.8, 9.8, 9.7, 5.3, 6.4
if it helps, you can omit “pretty steadily”
"This is Rickey, calling on behalf of Rickey."
I omit the 92 in Houston, because I already said he declined from 2007.
As for WARP3, seriously? Even BPro’s own writers almost never use WARP3 anymore. It’s the stat they treat like a crazy relative.
The D metric WARP3 uses is extremely unreliable. WARP3 believes that Tejada was a phenomenal D SS in his last 2 years in the As, and then right after leaving, became a bad defensive SS.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Actually, though, he was apparently great defensively this year
at least according to RZR… I haven’t researched this thoroughly.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Question
Does it feel to you like we expect consistency in defensive play while allowing for offensive performance to have some fluctuation? We say Nick Swisher might have been the unluckiest hitter in baseball this year but no one really says that about a guy’s defense.
The monster at the end of this blog.
That's because it's been proven that fielders have no control
over whether or not they catch a ground ball.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yeah, but my comment was more along "hey, isn't that weird" lines
than a serious attempt at analysis.
Smith’s fielding projections (man, these things are useful— I’ve cited them about 20 times in the last week!) peg him at exactly league average.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Any serious analysis ...
should be based on at least three years of data to get an appropriate sample size …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
No, I got it ...
responding requires serious thought … and my brain has been pretty fried … I’ll respond soon …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
What would "admititng he's wrong" to the public accomplish?
As long as he learns from his mistakes, I don’t really care what he says.
by thejd44 on Nov 4, 2008 1:24 PM PST up reply actions
Exactly how was Beane "wrong"
and what does he need to admit? That he is not clairvoyant? Beane signed Chavez in March of 2004, when he was a 26-year-old, power-hitting 3B coming off four straight seasons of 150+ games, three straight Gold Gloves and a smattering of MVP votes despite getting little attention from the national media. If that player was available in this winter’s FA class, he’d probably be more sought after than Teixeira, and he’d be a wishful-thinking for A’s fans.
"This is Rickey, calling on behalf of Rickey."
I think we can say he's wrong for thinking Crosby was good
And I am sure that had something to do with keeping Chavy instead of Tejada. Like I said, I think we all hope Chavy comes back healthy and if he is, he will be a major upgrade from that slug Hannahan who IMO should never have seen a ML roster.
I am looking forward to 2010 when our pitching prospects mature so anything next season that improves in the offense will be helping our pitching staff.
You neglected to mention Jesus Guzman
If you’re going to be putting out a 3B possible list with Dallas McPherson, Bobby Crosby and Edgardo fucking Alfonso on it then Jesus Guzman deserves to be on it and certainly shoots to the top of the list.
Can't get enough of the Oakland A's or Golden State Warriors? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's and Golden Stat Hoops
you are right, I'll update
They're called RUNS for a reason.
bo alejo is back
as strength and condition coach. if you remember he left the A’s to be giambi’s personal trainert when he left for yankees…the plot thickens!!!
lets hope he has some “help” left so the power teams of the early 90’s returns…juice up boys!!
All the A's problems would be solved if only
Billy Beane would admit that he was wrong. Dang that stubborn Billy!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Global warming would solve itself if PT could admit he was wrong!
Me admitting to being wrong a second time would lead to the cure for the common cold.
The monster at the end of this blog.
grover bless you
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Wouldn't you earn the cap after being deified?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
No
Bacause I would be a false idol. There is only one, true Grover.
The monster at the end of this blog.
What about Casey Blake/ G. Atkins
He can play three pos., (3B, 1B, and corner OF) and hit about 20-25 HR from the right side. He is not the best defender but I would take him over JH or BC any day. Another option is to trade for G. Atkins. I would love to see a trade that would look some thing like this.
A’s get G. Atkins, C. Barmes-Col gets G. Smith, (Mazzaro/+ SP prospect) one or the other / not either of the big two.
Garrett Atkins is a sub-average MLB player
Not interested in giving up future values
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Other 3b remedies:
Mike Schmidt
President Taft
Dikembe Mutombo (when he was on the Nuggets)
Johan Santana (We could do a sign-and-trade with the Canucks).
"Some of the men didn't wait for the women and children to jump off the sinking ship that is our season." - 67MARQUEZ
I can see Taft, but Schmidt? C'mon.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Taft would be a "fat-guy-as-goalie" all-star..
Did you know he once gave up his seat on the DC train so that three women could sit down?
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
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