Community Organizational Prospect List - #8
by Zonis on Nov 28, 2008 2:50 PM PST
Email
PrintSean Doolittle gets #7 by Landslide, off to #8.
- Trevor Cahill, RHP
- Brett Anderson, LHP
- Chris Carter, 3B/1B
- Aaron Cunningham, CF
- Gio Gonzalez, LHP
- Adrian Cardenas, SS/2B
- Sean Doolittle, 1B/RF
Candidates:
SP Michel Inoa, SP Vincent Mazzaro, SP James Simmons, C Josh Donaldson, 2B Jemile Weeks, P Henry Rodriguez, CF Rashun Dixon, SP Brett Hunter, P Fautino De Los Santos, SS Dustin Coleman
Possibles:
Corey Brown
Arnold Leon
Josh Outman
Tyson Ross
Nino Leyja
Jason Christian
Matt Sulentic
Sam Demel
Andrew Carnigan
Jeremey Barfield
Eric Patterson
Petey Paramore
Matt Spencer
Jared Lansford
Craig Italiano
Carlos Hernandez
Jason Fernandez
Grant Desme
Landon Powell
Anthony Recker
Ryan Webb
Michael Madsen
Jeff Baisley
Jeff Gray
Jamie Richmond
Tyreace House
Robin Rosario
Javier Herrera
Travis Banwart
Cliff Pennington
Gregorio Petit
Danny Putnam
Justin Sellers
Chris Berroa
Daniel Thomas
Ricardo Penalba
Jose Crisostomo
Franklyn Contreras
David Thomas
157 comments
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Comments
Dustin Coleman?
Does he belong on this list?
"All your baserunner are belong to Greg Smith" ~ walk off bunt
the way I have (hopefully) put it
is that the ones added to the list shouldn’t win, but but the time a few rounds comes, they will be contending for it. They are basically one of the top people who were left off the previous vote. So even if you think player X should be on the vote soon or not, they will be on the vote, and by the time they should win, they will be there with company.
facepalm.jpg
I love Dixon with his super tools
but you really would put him ahead of Simmons?
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
Absolutely
I like Simmons, but his fastball sat at 89 last year according to the scouting reports I’ve seen. He’s still got the great command and his change-up is his best pitch, but he showed little progress with the breaking ball. So he’s a two pitch pitcher without a great fastball and fly ball tendencies. That just won’t cut it as a big league SP.
The monster at the end of this blog.
During the Draft the scouting video they had of simmons
he was hitting 91-92 pretty often. I guess it comes down to upside vs probability. I tend to go with probability more.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
That was 2007
His velocity dropped a bit this year. That tends to happen in a pitcher’s 1st year and it’s very possible he’ll regain that velocity next year now that’s he’s used to the work load. However, that’ll be determined next year.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I just think hes got as great a shot of anyone not named
Cahill or Anderson of being being a good MLB pitcher. Put him on our park with our defense, with his ability to throw strikes I think he becomes a good Joe Blanton.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
I'm not saying he can't be a good big league pitcher
I’m questioning if he can stay a SP with only two pitches. When he pitched out of the bullpen in 2007 he could get his fastball up to the low-90’s. A relief pitcher with a low-90’s fastball, a great change-up and plus command would be real nice, we’re talking vintage Keith Foulke… maybe better.
But…
The A’s aren’t using him as a relief pitcher at this time. So we’ve got to judge him by the job he’s currently doing. I think his stuff is lacking at this time for him to be more than a mediocre SP.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Wait, so you question whether Simmons can stay as a starter
But you have fewer questions about a 17 year old? I don’t really get that.
by thejd44 on Nov 28, 2008 5:15 PM PST up reply actions
It's not about having fewer questions, it's about having more time for answers
Physically, Simmons is about as good as he’s going to get. He doesn’t have a lot of projection left. He needs to make his move soon, and by that I mean he needs to figure out a breaking ball and it would be nice if he could find that lost velocity.
The monster at the end of this blog.
OK
Just to bring things back to reality here, Simmons turned 22 less than 2 months ago. There were all of 3 pitchers in the league (Feliz, Cahill, Anderson) with a younger seasonal age than his last season. A handful of others who are fractions of a year younger.
No one should be mistaking him for an autumn chicken.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Pay attention
I didn’t say Simmons was old, I said he was maxed out. Physically speaking, what you see is what you’re going to get. He isn’t a 17 year old kid that you dream on, he’s not going to grow another 2 inches or add 30 lbs of muscle to his frame.
He doesn’t have mechanics that need fixing, his fastball is what it is. I’m hoping that the lost velocity will come back now that he’s experienced a full season workload but that remains to be seen. He still doesn’t have a breaking ball, which has nothing to do with physical projection but everything to do with learning the skills to become a big league pitcher.
You want reality? Simmons won’t cut it as a big league SP with an 89 MPH fastball, fly ball tendencies and no breaking ball.
The monster at the end of this blog.
He has a breaking ball... it's just not that good right now
Most big league starters don’t have three plus pitches. In fact, BA considers that to be a mark of a front-of-rotation starter.
By their standard criteria, average fastball, plus changeup, average slider and plus-plus command is about a #3 starter, which is what people expect Simmons to become. He doesn’t have to work wonders with his slider— he just needs to raise it from a 45 pitch to a 50 pitch…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I never said he needed 3 plus pitches
He worked on the breaking ball all year and it’s still a below average pitch. I said he needs a breaking ball, I thought you were smart enough to realize I was talking about him needing to come up with a reliable pitch, not that he’d never tried to throw one before.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I think it comes down to benefit of the doubt
It looks like your willing to take the chance on Dixon learning to make better contact and control the zone as well as adjust to much higher levels of pitching but you assume Simmons won’t ever improve on what he is right now.
Just because Simmons won’t grow anymore doesn’t mean he won’t tighten up his breaking ball. Simmons is more developed than Dixon, but he is by no means a finished product. Pitchers have been known to improve past the age of 21, and if Simmons can get his breaking ball to average he should be a good starter, that’s not too far to go.
I read this and my jaw dropped
I have no idea how you could have misunderstood so badly. Know what? I don’t want to know, it’s a waste of my time and patience to figure out where you went wrong.
I DO NOT ASSUME SIMMONS WON’T IMPROVE ON WHAT HE IS RIGHT NOW.
Clear enough for you?
I have merely pointed out, repeatedly, what he needs to do to reach his ceiling. One of the A’s goals for Simmons this past year was for him to develop a reliable breaking ball.
According to the scouting reports I’ve read, he failed in that regard.
That is not to say he won’t figure it out next year in AAA… just that he hasn’t done it yet AND IF HE CAN’T EVER DO IT then he won’t be able to be a big league SP.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Wow, sore subject
Well, trying to get past my gross misunderstanding, every propect has to do something to reach there ceiling. If Simmons only has to improve his breaking ball to reach his ceiling, that is a damn good propect.
Just as a discussion point, I was going on the assumption that in his first full season of pro ball Simmons focus was on improving conditioning and getting used to long seasons. I don’t think it’s that unreasonable for a team to have a prospect relax on their breaking ball over their first season to get acclimated. If I missed the memo on the A’s goals for Simmons that might account for my valuation of him.
It's always a sore subject when someone tries to put words in my mouth
Cue some obscene comment, probably from Nico.
The monster at the end of this blog.
It's always a sore subject when someone tries to put words in my mouth, too.
Especially words like “oral herpes”.
Mint Chocolate Chip
Canker think of a better example?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Hmm ... That's not your usual caliber.
I’m sending it to Blistex for confirmation.
Mint Chocolate Chip
Well, unless the info I'm looking at is wrong he's actually 18 as of late
August…
Not that it changes your argument all that much. Just means he’s eligible for the other Draft, really, I suppose.
by still bills kingdom on Nov 28, 2008 9:14 PM PST up reply actions
Yes, Dixon turned 18 at the end of August.
After he put up all (or at least about 95% of, since I’m not sure the exact date the league ended) his rookie league numbers as a 17-year-old.
by thejd44 on Dec 2, 2008 9:16 AM PST up reply actions
Big bonus or no, I'm inclined to favor Jason Christian over Coleman
All the writeups I’ve seen on Christian have been very positive. Good athleticism, enough range to stay a shortstop, nice plate discipline, and passable power.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Simmons for me
With Mazzaro and Weeks very close behind.
Simmons has done nothing but perform, he has good control and seems to be able to execute a plan on the mound. I think now that the sleep apnea is under control he will continue to put up good numbers in AAA and soon setlle into a role as a solid middle of the rotation pitcher.
He's needs a breaking ball to stay a SP
There aren’t too many two pitch SP in the big leagues and almost all of them have a better fastball than Simmons.
The monster at the end of this blog.
His floor is Bobby Howry... not the worst player ever
and I think he’ll find the breaking ball. You can’t have that kind of command without great mechanics— it’s just a matter of translating those mechanics into a new pitch.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I agree
And if/when he finds that breaking ball I’ll change my tune. But I can’t ignore the fact that there are a lot of guys who’ve never found that 3rd pitch and Simmons doesn’t have an overpowering fastball. The A’s expected him to find that breaking ball in 2008 and it didn’t happen. If his ceiling drops from mid-rotation SP to Bobby Howry then no way is he the 8th best prospect in the system.
The monster at the end of this blog.
The point is that his FLOOR is Bobby Howry
Who has had a very good career as a reliever. That career is, basically, guaranteed. I don’t think too many guys on this list have a floor anywhere near that high.
It all depends how you evaluate prospects, I guess. I tend to rate guys who are “guarantees” (nobody is a guarantee, I know this) to be decent over guys who are either going to be awesome or terrible a little bit better. That’s also why I tend to dislike “tools” guys, especially the ones who have never put up numbers.
by thejd44 on Nov 28, 2008 5:17 PM PST up reply actions
And a guy destined to be Howry doesn't deserve to be the 8th best prospect in this system
I like certainty as much as the next guy, but I have a hard time picking a certain middle relief arm over a guy with the talent to be a starting caliber CF.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Are you having problems with your eyesight?
No one is ever “destined” to be anything. A floor is a guy’s near-worst case scenario.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Why do you ignore every other thing I've said about Simmons?
Two posts above this I said he had a mid-rotation ceiling. I’ve also said what needs to happen for him to reach that ceiling! Do you disagree with me when I say a two pitch SP with an 89 MPH fastball and fly ball tendencies is going to struggle for success?
Why the fuck are you focusing on the word destined when every other thing I’ve said about the guy has been positive but cautious? I’ve said multiple times, once in this very thread, that if the A’s converted Simmons to relief pitching he could become a vintage Foulke. That’s a pretty good level to reach.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Simmons doesn't have fly ball tendencies-- not yet, anyway.
Pitchers do tend to give up more fly balls as they climb the ladder, but right now he’s getting grounders at a 4:3 ratio with flies. It’s possible that the Texas League is overcrediting line drives and it’s closer to 1:1, but the data we have is what we have.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
The data I have comes from MLB.com and Milb.com
I think we need to have a highlander AN competition
Or at least a poll.
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
I'm using minorleaguesplits
which separates out line drives from fly balls.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Splits is using outs & hits I think
GO/AO is specifically outs.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Yes
and I suspect a large number of groundball hits is what’s behind Simmons’s abnormally high BABIP this season.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Because an unusual number of grounders getting through
is one of the easiest ways for a pitcher to get tagged with an unusually high BABIP.
The luck-calculator at minorleaguesplits thinks he should have had 9 fewer groundball hits and 11 more flyball hits (I guess the average outfielders in the Texas League suck, or something…)
Anyway, reverse those and you’ve got 9 more groundouts and 11 fewer flyouts.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Even using your Lucky numbers & taking them at full face value
He had a 1.00 GO/AO which is still below the MLB average of 1.06. So the fly ball tendency isn’t as strong as the actual numbers indicate but it’s still there.
And I’m not so sure how comfortable I am using the Luck data. The raw numbers on Splits doesn’t match with MiLB’s numbers when you do them by hand. Don’t know what’s up with that.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Fact is, the double-checking of data at that level is mediocre
and sometimes there are what we would think of as classification errors.
Bottom line: I’d expect Simmons to be a flyball pitcher at the MLB level, but not an extreme one. Somewhere in the Paul Byrd range would be my guess.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Yeah, it turns out that his BABIP wasn't actually high for the league
just high by comparison to Mazzaro’s.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Howry threw a lot harder than Simmons
I don’t think it’s the best comp – Howry was a “power arm” for most of his career. In some ways, a decent comp might be Dallas Braden (in a mirror).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Not according to PitchF/X...
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
pitchfx is only 2 years old
i assume nico is talking about Howry from a while ago with “threw”
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by iamawesomer on Nov 29, 2008 11:44 AM PST up reply actions
Fangraphs' data goes back to 2005
Maybe Howry threw 95 in 2000, but maybe it was just juiced radar guns.
For the years we have actual data, Howry’s been low-90s.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I think Howry threw 95 for several years
He’s 35 now; I’m referring to when he was in his 20s.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yep
Howry threw 95, maybe a bit harder, when he first came up with the White Sox.
by thejd44 on Dec 2, 2008 9:18 AM PST up reply actions
Dixon HAS put up numbers
In fact, his XBH hit rate was unbelievable. He had 10 triples and 8 HR in only 45 games for Arizona. And he JUST turned 18. Yes, he’s mostly tools, but they’re incredible tools.
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Nov 28, 2008 9:03 PM PST up reply actions
I would have guys like
Andrew Carnigan
Arnold Leon
Corey Brown
Ahead of Coleman and Weeks
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
I wish we had something to go by in Inoa's case
other than scouting reports of him versus other 16 or 17 year olds. I love the idea of him but Simmons has performed very well on several levels of competition, so I can’t vote for him just yet.
Yeah, I'm a Simmons homer
Note that he’s had a ridiculously high BABIP in both 2007 and 2008: (.559 in 2007, .340 in 2008), which would have served to inflate his numbers.
Gotta go with the Simmons here.
I know that's a pisser, baby.
Rodriguez gets my vote
Guys who throw 100 don’t grow on trees. If he learns how to keep the ball in the strike zone he’s going to be awesome.
Wasn't throwing 100 when I saw him...
Maybe he was just tired, but I suspect his mechanics are a total mess given how bad his control is. I haven’t seen what he’s doing differently on different occasions, though.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
He did hit 100 at the futures game.
Was more consistently around 96-97. He has a short arm delivery. He didnt reach all the way back. They said it was similar to the way Roger Clemens threw.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
It did seem that way, now that I think on it
A bit LaTroy Hawkins-esque (without the weird splitting-the-ball-and-the-glove thing).
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I have the game saved on my DVR
When I get bored I watch Cahill/Anderson/HRod pitch.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
In HD to boot :)
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
Any chance you could send that to me?
I would sacrifice 3 goats on your behalf.
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
Would have no clue how to get it from my DVR
to my computer.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
Can I get involved in a three-way deal
and receive the goats? I do love three-ways anyway.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
He supposedly hit 100 in the futures game several times.
Either way, if the issue is simply mechanics, that’s nothing that worries me.
Wait, seriously?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Not quickly, not easily, not guaranteed that there will be the same results
Not to mention that if his mechanics were bad, there could be damage done to the arm. Bad mechanics are just about the worst thing for a pitcher besides a bomb strapped to their elbow.
Bad mechanics kill pitchers… well not kill, but you know.
Yes, and Victor Zambrano's 4 Cy Young awards prove it
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Brad Ziegler is an utterly different pitcher than he used to be
Which proves the point. Change Rodriguez’s mechanics and who the hell knows what happens to his pitching ability.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
This discussion misses the crucial reason why Rodriguez is the best remaining pitcher on this list
and that is his performance.
27.5% K-rate with 51.1% GB rate. Until someone can present any evidence other their own non-expert assertions that these two are not the best indicators of future success and longevity I’m going to continue to vote and stump for Rodriguez.
Cherry-picking Victor Zambrano, who was a better prospect at Age 21 than any current A’s prospect left on the board with a 10K/9IP and 2.7 BB/9IP ratios, as an example of one pitcher with a high K-rate who ended up with arm problems doesn’t disprove the overall relationship between K-rate, GB rate and future success.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 28, 2008 11:18 PM PST up reply actions
I had no idea what Victor Zambrano's minor league line looked like
He is, however, the poster child for pitchers with bad mechanics, thanks to Rick Peterson’s infamous statement and the Scott Kazmir trade.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Actually he was a career minor league reliever so he's not a good comparable
And I’m not sure whom you think has bad mechanics. If it’s Rodriguez, then I’d refer you to the following from BA:
“He’s athletic, repeats his delivery and fields his position well”
I’ve never seen anywhere where a scout or manager has criticized his mechanics. If you can point me to one then I’d be happy to look at it. But so far you’ve not contributed any information, just a bunch of unsubstantiated assertions without evidence. So the Victor comparison is completely invalid.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 28, 2008 11:51 PM PST up reply actions
Let me put it this way
If his mechanics are clean, it’s even worse for him, because that probably means he’s just physically incapable of throwing a baseball for a strike. Changing a guy’s mechanics has a strong chance of messing him up, but if he’s already good as-is and is just incurably messed up, that’s much worse… it does mean he’s less likely to be injured, but who cares if a below-replacement player gets injured? And he will definitely be below replacement if he keeps walking 7 guys every 9 innings.
Maybe they should try him in the outfield if he’s “athletic and fields his position well.”
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Not quite true.
If he mechanics are clean, he’s got a low chance of injury.
If there’s a slight tweak that can be made, though, like something little — keeping his hips closed longer, not flaring out his glove, having a longer stride, WHATEVER — something that makes it “click” for lack of a better word, that’s how guys improve their command.
Well, like I said, I'll believe it when I see it
and I’m not giving him credit for something that might or might not happen and might or might not even be something that COULD happen. He’s a lottery ticket to me until he shows otherwise.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Hogwash
The better prospects have MLB skills that they simply have to refine enough to succeed at higher levels.
Rodriguez is totally lacking a basic, fundamental skill of a pitcher— the ability to throw pitches in the strike zone.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Many of them are...
Many others are due to players missing easily hittable pitches.
It’s routine that players in the minors have both worse pitch recognition and worse contact hitting skills than players in the majors. Guys with juicy fastballs but no control can rack up a lot of strikeouts in the minors, but that ability doesn’t necessarily carry over to the majors.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Here's a video of him:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_K2imZZx-c
" He throws it where he wants it, his breaking ball kept getting better and better and of course God gave him that special arm. He's great." ~ Neftali Feliz on Derek Holland.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 28, 2008 6:24 PM PST up reply actions
Oopsies
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Just copy and past it into your browser, it dosen't like the "-c" at the end for some reason.
" He throws it where he wants it, his breaking ball kept getting better and better and of course God gave him that special arm. He's great." ~ Neftali Feliz on Derek Holland.
by Kinslerhomer on Nov 28, 2008 7:56 PM PST up reply actions
Simmons to me is the most likely...
be a run of the mill pitcher in the bigs. I like the upside of Dixon here. I like all the top four in poll order better than Simmons…RASHUN DIXON for me
by throttle mathius on Nov 28, 2008 4:25 PM PST reply actions
I think we're getting ahead of ourselves
with Dixon.
I like Nino Leyja more than him right now.
A guy that can hit for power and has the speed to get 10 triples in 45 games
is worth a hell of a lot more than a guy who can take a pitch. I don’t see any way you could possibly have Leyja over Dixon.
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Nov 28, 2008 9:08 PM PST up reply actions
Leyja's contact skills are also way in excess of Dixon's, though
In 13 fewer plate appearances, he struck out 37 fewer times. He hit a rough patch at the end of the season, but before that he was walking almost as often as he struck out. And he doesn’t lack for pop himself— 19 XBH in 165 at-bats is outstanding for a middle infielder, and given his youth and wiry frame, more of those will probably turn into home runs eventually.
And, of course, being a shortstop makes the batting line look quite a bit better.
I’m playing devil’s advocate here— I like Dixon more myself— but it’s not a blowout between the two. Leyja’s a bit reminiscent of Adrian Cardenas, so if you like Cardenas, I can see why you’d like Leyja too.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
So, any chance Leyja and Dixon can start for the A's in 2009 ?
I know.. no way but the way you and grover are talking about them, I started thinking they were ready. If they are this good now, how good can they become when they reach the A’s.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
They are an interesting pair.
At this point we have only seen them play in the Rookie league, which basically means they are all hype.
This will be in interesting year for the two of them, they have the skills to succeed, but will it translate at a level where the games aren’t glorified exhibitions?
Depending on how their year goes, they could be on everyone’s top ten list by next offseason, or by a year from now no one may remember their names.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Nov 28, 2008 10:58 PM PST up reply actions
2013, more like...
Keep in mind, “good” is only in the context of being 17-year-olds in Rookie ball. They’d get killed in the big leagues.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I thought they ruled out shooting rookies in the majors a couple years ago?
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Maybe his mom reads AN
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I voted Simmons
hasn’t done anything to disappoint since being drafted, and has posted 3.46 and 3.41 FIPs in 2007 and 2008 respectively.
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Trade
Somewhat interesting a list as far as trades and origins go.
- Cahill: Oakland
- Anderson: Arizona
- Carter: Chicago, Arizona
- Cunningham: Chicago, Arizona
- Gonzalez: Chicago, Philadelphia, Chicago
- Cardenas: Philadelphia
- Doolittle: Oakland
facepalm.jpg
Interesting that only the 1st and last are home grown.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Except
By the time Anderson, Carter, and Cardenas get the the majors they will have been in the system longer then some college players.
Calling someone a “homegrown” player is really misleading, because although they started off with someone else, it’s really the A’s who have developed that player.
If the point of a development system is to (strangely) develop a player, does it really matter if that player comes from the draft or a trade? After you’ve spent about 6 months in a teams system, you might as well, and after a few years in the majors will be considered, homegrown talent.
Really, the only players that can’t be considered “homegrown” are players traded for or signed after they’ve left the development system like Halladay or maybe soon to be Fercal.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Nov 28, 2008 9:51 PM PST up reply actions
I disagree, particularly for position players
Once a guy gets past the low levels, he pretty much is what he is going to be. It’s just a matter of whether it’s good enough or not. Draftees are mostly about scouting. Trade acquisitions are much more about reading a player’s statline correctly.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
that doesn't make sense
if you’re going to list arizona next to carter and philadelphia next to gonzalez, you should put oakland next to both.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
Why people are voting Simmons over Mazzaro at this point is beyond me.
A lot of people now think Mazzaro could be a mid rotation starter; while as many people rightly pointed out on this forum, Simmons currently projects as a reliever. There is a reason for that.
Mazzaro was flat out a better pitcher this year. He throws harder, has better breaking pitches, and has done it all at a younger age then Simmons. Why are people grading the guy with only one tool (control) over the guy who received accolades for being the best pitcher in AA last year?
The only thing Simmons really does better then Mazzaro is control the ball, but that really does him no good without power and breaking pitches. Giving Mazzaro the number eight ranking on control alone is like giving a blind man a nose and saying “at least now you should be able to smell the massive cliff somewhere ahead of you.” One sense does not complete a person and one tool does not complete a pitcher, it takes all of them. That’s what Mazzaro currently has that Simmons lacks—average to above average tools all the way around.
In conclusion, the founding fathers were right to create the Electoral College because sometimes you just can’t trust the masses.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
i think greg maddux had a pretty good career relying basically on control…not that im equating simmons to maddux in any way, shape or form though.
by UOSportsDude on Nov 28, 2008 10:04 PM PST up reply actions
i mean im not equating simmons’s upside to maddux’s, he’s just an example of a pitcher who relied mostly on control yet became dominant.
by UOSportsDude on Nov 28, 2008 10:14 PM PST up reply actions
Even Maddux had passible breaking pitches
Simmons has an average/above average breaking pitch and nothing else. He’s got a LONG way to go before we can compare him to Greg Maddux—even in passing.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Nov 28, 2008 11:01 PM PST up reply actions
The answer, IMO, is that control/command is one of the
very most essential elements to pitching. Joe Blanton is a much better pitcher than the current incarnations of Dana Eveland or Gio Gonzalez, both of whom throw harder with better “stuff”.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
But
The difference between Blanton and Simmons is that Blanton had multiple major league average breaking pitches to throw hitters off balance; Simmons only has one.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Nov 29, 2008 11:26 AM PST up reply actions
True, but there's also the "projection" question of
which is more likely for a young pitcher, who doesn’t have it, to develop: A better breaking pitch or better control/command?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I assume he means Blanton's curve and slider,
both of which are decent major league pitches.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Mazzaro was better for one year
If you want to judge on one year, then yes Mazzaro was a bit better. But Simmons is actually 2 days younger than Mazzaro so age isn’t a factor, and Simmons struck out more batters and walked less over the same amount of innings in AA. The only thing Mazzaro has over Simmons is that he keeps the ball on the ground better and had a lower BABIP.
Neither pitcher is known for having a great breaking ball, Simmons has a plus change and Mazzaro gets good sink on his fastball so stuff wise I don’t see much of a difference. Both have something to work on before moving to the majors. Simmons has thrived in college and made a successful transition to pro ball, Mazzaro struggled through his firs couple years in the pros and broke out this year.
I think both guys are close, but I would but Simmons a bit ahead.
People arent sold on Mazzaro just yet.
A ERA 5.05 WHIP 1.58
A+ ERA 5.33 WHIP 1.50
AA ERA 1.90 WHIP 1.10
AAA ERA 6.15 WHIP 1.72
You tell me what numbers look like they dont belong. Now he certainly coulda figured something out this year. And AAA is a small sample size. But some people are skeptical. Just gonna have to wait and see. Simmons has the better track record.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
Recent-ish history suggests
that the masses are way ahead of the electoral college.
by green star oakland on Nov 29, 2008 8:24 PM PST up reply actions
I suspect bias for Simmons
He is an a product of an Oakland draft.
We have watched him develop.
We have watched him continue to succeed.
So, despite his problems we love him. And he has a cool name.
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
But so is Mazzaro...
I think the Simmons over Mazzaro argument comes from Simmon’s track record being better than Mazzaros-since Mazzaro has had 1 good year, period.
facepalm.jpg
I understand the bias
But at this point I just think Mazzaro is more likely to be a better major league player then Simmons (even with Simmon’s track record.
Simmons has a year and a half of consistent mediocrity, while Mazzaro has a year of stand out excellence. Which would you take?
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Nov 28, 2008 11:04 PM PST up reply actions
Mediocrity?
Man, some people are hard to please. A low-3s FIP at age 21— and, for that matter, at age 20— in AA is now “mediocrity.”
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Agreed. That's not mediocre- it's darned good, actually.
And the fact that he came straight from college into AA ball and held his own, then continued in kind this past year showing it wasn’t a fluke, speaks well of him also.
by still bills kingdom on Nov 29, 2008 11:21 AM PST up reply actions
is yankee stadium gun hot?
hrod
99mph- 2 times
100mph- 3 times
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOPq8wPMoEc&feature=related</a>
so if these 3 way peavy rumors
i suspect at least a couple these pitchers are traded to get vitters or a headley
my guess at least one of mazzaro/simmons + hrod
You have to admit, it is a bit easier to visualize than Nico and his goats
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Hmm. I would think it would be easier
to visualize the one that was all over YouTube.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
JD Pruitt and Ryan Doolittle
How about adding JD Pruitt and Ryan Doolittle to the possibles list?
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
Seconded
nt
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Nov 29, 2008 11:21 AM PST up reply actions
Wait, Andrew Bailey wasn't on there?
[scans list]
Jeez, you’re right. I still think he’s at least a top 25 guy, maybe top 20 depending on my mood. I know he struggled in the rotation this year, but his numbers once he moved to the bullpen are pretty insane. 54 2/3 IP, 12 BB, 57 K, 1 HR, FIP in the low 2s (minorleaguesplits doesn’t count AFL numbers, but I have to imagine that 14 innings with 16 strikeouts and 1 walk would only lower the regular season mark of 2.46).
Maybe it’s just a small sample size fluke, but 55 innings is a fair amount to go on. And it’s not like he’s some creampuff finesse guy— he has good pitches. Mid-90s heater, hammer curveball. Sometimes it takes guys who had Tommy John surgery a while to regain their command— maybe it just took him a bit longer than usual.
Also, let me add another plug for Ronny Morla.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Good genes or no, 26th round picks with average-at-best numbers in rookie ball aren't prospects
As for Pruitt, let’s just say that the manner in which his 2008 season ended was ironically predictable.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
This could keep going till the beginning of the season right?
So why the heck not add them?
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Nov 29, 2008 11:37 AM PST up reply actions
I wonder if Donaldson is getting short shrift
Outside of one lousy stint (marred by low BABIP, IIRC), he has hit really well and he plays positions (C, 3B, maybe 1B) that should make him a fast-track possibility for the A’s (or another team if at catcher).
I have a good feeling about Donaldson – I think his upside exceeds that of Simmons and that his likelihood of sticking exceeds that of Mazzaro. The downest-side, of course, is that he is the least tested at higher levels. But I want to give him some love on this thread.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
He's who I'm voting for next.
Then probably Mazzaro after him.
He is in my top 10.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
could donaldson jump ahead of suzuki
in a couple yrs?
suzuki is and should be a solid player for awhile…he really improved his defensive issues w/ wakamatsu around.
sickles said suzuki’s like a greg zaun type that can have a 10+ yr career
but donaldson looks to have very good upside with the bat
by Asfan4ever723 on Nov 29, 2008 12:43 PM PST up reply actions
Donaldson's D is the question
I think he has shown that there is a good chance his bat will play at Catcher, but his ability to handle pitchers, control the running game, and actually catch the ball will determine whether he will be pushing Suzuki.
a couple local A's draftees got released recently
SP:
dewing sjsu
lysander sonoma st.
What's with A's focus on South Dakota?
I note that the A’s currently have Mark Ellis (from Rapid City, SD) and Justin Duchscherer (born in Aberdeen, SD) on their team, and now have Doolittle (born in Rapid City, SD) and Dusty Coleman (born in Sioux Falls, SD) as up and comers. They probably will let Keith Foulke (born at Ellsworth AFB, SD) go, so he doesn’t count. Do the A’s have a South Dakota bias? Remembering Dick Green (Rapid City, SD), I hope so.
There aren’t very many professional baseball players from South Dakota. This concentration is interesting. At least to other South Dakotans’.
rcodd
It's moneyball baby.
South Dakotians are the new undervalued commodity.
BTW, isn’t Ryan Doolittle also from SD?
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
One assumes
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I should buy some to mow my lawn
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Nov 29, 2008 5:51 PM PST up reply actions
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