Semi-Baked Ideas Thread
by librariansunite on Nov 25, 2008 7:21 AM PST
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PrintHere are some other options if signing Giambi and/or signing Furcal fall through. They are much less risky and possibly a better use of resources.
#1. If we "lose out" on Rafael Furcal, trade Bobby Crosby for Miguel Tejada.
1 yr - 7 million
PROS:
We pay 7 million dollars for an OPS bump of .050-.075 and better defense (Miguel was rated as a +7). We get rid of Bobby Crosby.
CONS:
Tejada might slip more in the AL. Crosby might hit better. We might pay an extra $7 million for better defense/attitude. This leaves a hole at SS for the foreseeable future.
Ed Wade might not do it to try and save face.
#2. Sign Eric Hinske (if he can still play any 3rd base)
3 yrs - 10million
I had trouble locating any stats for Hinske at third base (around 2005-2006). If he can play it reasonably well, he might be a good backup for Chavez and Barton, adding some pop to our lineup and off the bench.
PROS: Cheap pop. Plays many positions. Could have a career year left in him.
CONS: Could play a horrible 3b. Baisley could play equally well and be much cheaper.
#3. If we do not sign Giambi (2 yrs - 15 million) - trade Santiago Casilla for Ryan Shealy.
PROS: Shealy has potential and plays great defense at first base.
CONS: Possibly a 4A player. With Barton, Baisley, and possibly Hinske, 1B could be crowded.
After trading for Jacobs and trading away Rivera, this should be a good fit for the Royals.
After doing research for these proposals (including fangraphs.com 2009 projections from James and Marcel) I'm torn on Giambi/Randy Johnson. Out of the two, I would sign Johnson first, as we need another front of the line starter for 2009 if we want to compete. We do also need another "sure thing" in terms of batting production, and I think Giambi will provide this, but I am afraid of his movement from Yankee Stadium, although this may be counterbalanced by less pressure in Oakland. Overall, both of them will be worth the contracts, but with a small market team, you cannot always pay fair price in the free agent market.
Either way, it is very likely we are unable to sign Furcal and Johnson. What moves can we make to compete in 2009 if we lose out on big name free agents?
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a few are good
i think the price on giambi is doable
yes on hinske, no on 3 yrs
astros farm system in shambles, i see no reason why they would want crosby over some pitching or prospect depth
i’m down with trading mr headcase cassilla + something else but for a ss/3b type, not another 1b/dh
[Insert nevermoor's repetitive "please stop mentioning Giambi, he makes no sense at all" post here]
by mikev on Nov 25, 2008 7:48 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
It's definitely in question
Although the money could be better used. Like he has said, his defense would negate the win he provides on offense. The only reason I would consider it would be to “protect” other hitters, and try to gain the effect good hitters can have on lesser hitters. Of course, that could be myth.
by librariansunite on Nov 25, 2008 7:54 AM PST up reply actions
I've been busy over the holidays, glad to see someone is picking up the slack
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
who really thinks Randy Johnson is going to be healthy for most of this year?
the dude is older than dirt, and you really think that just because he had a good year last year means that he can do it again this year? The question with Randy isn’t the talent, but unlike that new Brad Pitt movie, he’s getting older and not younger. I know, I know, who woulda thunk it? But seriously, I’d rather take my chances with the Youngsters and Holliday than waste money and a rotation spot on someone likely to be more injured than Rich Harden. The OLD Rich Harden that is.
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
i hate him
Really. And I dislike very few players. Even people who suck, I give them credit saying “but he tries hard” and this and that. Come on, I am a Bobby Crosby fan and I know there are very few people who go “I love the guy” but I do…but RJ..I can’t stand. Everyone knows I am a Yankees fan and I was so appauled by the move to land him…and he certainly wasn’t worth much. I just don’t like the guys attitude, never been a fan watching him pitch (as talented as he may be) and at this point he is old with too many back problems. I would much rather take a chance on younger guys.
by ilovegregsmith on Nov 25, 2008 10:37 AM PST up reply actions
Ever considered that the reason he's managed to stay good
for so long, even with all the back injuries, is due to more than just talent?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Wait, do you mean genes, or drugs?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Ooh, are we selling drugs?
Two please.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
No I mean
sometimes, when a player manages to stay good late into his career, it might not be genes, or drugs, but hard work, ie “he tries hard”.
Obviously, drugs could be part of it too, but that is the case for pretty much any elite pro athlete of any age.
There’s (MUCH) more to “he tries hard”, than just running out ground balls, getting the uni dirty, looking serious and intense. Much of the “he tries hard” part, consists of things that most fans will rarely know about, and rarely see. Much of the “he tries hard” part, is practicing, training, eating right, getting proper rest and recuperation.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Julio Franco?
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 26, 2008 7:00 AM PST up reply actions
I didn't know you were a Yankee fan.
This changes things.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 25, 2008 3:47 PM PST up reply actions
lol
i have mentioned many times..I live in NE. Here we are raised to love the Red Sox and Pats…or the Yankees and a NY football team. I was raised on the Yankees and Giants until I was allowed an opinion of my own..and i fell inlove with the A’s. I get the baseball package every year to watch their games and I go to Fenway when they go there lol
by ilovegregsmith on Nov 25, 2008 5:24 PM PST up reply actions
hopefully your view doesn't change with the loss of your boy to the rockies
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 25, 2008 6:25 PM PST up reply actions
{quietly bans ilovegregsmith}
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
haha charming
But no, I’ll watch my boys games but no way in hell am I going to be a rockies fan lol
by ilovegregsmith on Nov 25, 2008 7:51 PM PST up reply actions
k good. go jets!
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 26, 2008 6:55 AM PST up reply actions
Think we can get Shealy for cheaper than that
and we’d use Hinske at 1B rather than 3B most likely.
facepalm.jpg
What about reaquiring Jermaine Dye and putting him at 1B?
Hell, we all know he can play Short Stop too ;)
facepalm.jpg
Shealy is terrible, Hinske isn't worth anything like that money, and conversely Tejada for Crosby would never happen in a zillion years
These ideas need to go back in the oven.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
These ideas need to go back in the bubbler...
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
OT: Does anyone know how good Kevin Frandsen is with the glove at SS?
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
From http://sfgiants.scout.com/2/525607.html
DEFENSE:
"Frandsen has a good reputation for defense, though he can try to force an extraordinary play sometimes when the safe play is better, and that has forced errors in the past. One comparison is something people often say about young NFL Quarterbacks, where Frandsen needs to learn when to just hold onto the ball and not try to force an unadvisable play and make things worse. His defense has improved throughout his pro career, and he seems to have no ill aftereffects from his collision and injury in 2004, either physical or mental. Frandsen is not afraid to get dirty, ever.
While Frandsen has played second base primarily in the minors, he has also played some at third base and a scattered few games at shortstop. While, as noted, he was honored for his defense at third in college, he doesn’t yet have enough exposure in pro ball to determine how well he can play the hot corner."
by librariansunite on Nov 25, 2008 7:31 PM PST up reply actions
Couldn't all threads have this title?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
I don't have anything to contribute to the further baking of these ideas,
but I just have to say that I love your username. Libraries are awesome.
They are great, aren't they!
Nothing like disseminatin’ some information!
I currently work at UPenn’s Humanities library at the Reference Desk, fun stuff!
by librariansunite on Nov 25, 2008 7:21 PM PST up reply actions
Say "hi" to my brother - he's a Math professor at UPenn
Just say “Hi – are you Nico’s brother?” to every male you see until it happens to be him.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Just at UPenn
Or everywhere? And should I discriminate against people I already know?
by librariansunite on Nov 25, 2008 7:49 PM PST up reply actions
Only if they're different from you
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Reply
And your ideas are?
Try responding constructively sometime.
In response to your reply:
Tejada-
Like I said, Wade may not do it. It makes sense because it saves him $7-8 million and he needs to spend that on pitching, but hey, he’s not the most logical GM.
Hinske –
That may be too much for Hinske, let’s say he would accept 2yrs, 6 million. If he can play 3B respectably, in addition to playing the OF and 1B, I’d say it’s worth it for a guy off the bench with 20 homer pop. It’s definitely better than wallowing through Hannahan and Pennington’s offensive output at 3B.
Shealy-
You’re wrong here. Shealy OPS’d .957 in a (small sample size) September call-up. He also hits RH pitching better than LH, and much better than one Daric Barton. Actually, a platoon between Shealy and Barton makes perfect sense, as Barton OPS’s about 150 points better against LH pitching. Here, I’ll lay it out for you since you didn’t want to look it up.
Barton alone – .750 OPS (average of Marcel and James)
Barton (hitting all LH and a few RH) – .820 OPS (guesstimate of above projection spread over split – +.070)
Shealy (hitting 3/4 of RH pitching) – .860 OPS (same – avg of Marcel and James + .070 OPS)
That gives you a great defensive 1B platoon with around an .845 OPS. Would you not be satisfied in giving up Santiago Casilla (he of the 1.59 WHIP and .297 BAA – although his BABIP against was very high → selling point to Royals) for that?
I would, and for the reasons listed I would make any of the three moves, knowing that it would better the team and be a good use of resources.
by librariansunite on Nov 25, 2008 7:18 PM PST reply actions
Welcome to PT
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I don't know that you can really project reverse splits based on this sample size
Also regarding Tejada, I doubt the Astros would trade him for Crosby, and I think I’d rather trade Crosby for the best prospect I could get and eat Bob’s salary. Tejada seems cooked, and at best is a one year solution.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 25, 2008 8:09 PM PST up reply actions
Tejada
If you packaged BoCro with a low-tier pitching prospect and/or some money, you might get a draft pick back next year. He may be cooked, but he’ still better than Crosby :/
by librariansunite on Nov 25, 2008 8:19 PM PST up reply actions
But I don't think the Astros would trade him for a short term downgrade
They’re old and their farm sucks. Their best bad option is to for it in 2009.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 25, 2008 8:30 PM PST up reply actions
I know exactly whether you can project reverse splits based on this sample size
Specifically… you can’t. Hell, based on these sample sizes you’d be hard-pressed to say ANYTHING about someone’s platoon splits. It’s safe to assume they’re both league average in that category.
Taking the rest: Wade’s not going to try to sell a salary dump and he’s certainly not going to try to sell one that doesn’t even get a useful part in return; Hinske cannot play 3B acceptably and, in fact, it’s everything he can do to be above replacement level at first; Shealy is 28 and has never posted acceptable hitting numbers for a first baseman when you account for the parks he’s played in.
Interestingly, Crosby also projects to recoup a draft pick next year. It’s surprising how bad you have to be to not be a Type B middle infielder if you get regular playing time.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
wow....Crotchby for SS in '09...lol, too bad a 2nd rounder isn't the same as a 1st rounder...
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 26, 2008 6:59 AM PST up reply actions
To get that draft pick
You would have to offer Crosby arbitration. Hopefully, he would decline but you never know.
On the defensive list you provided, Juan Uribe is listed as a better defensive SS than Jimmy Rollins, and Bo Cro is equal to JRoll. There were a few other very questionable scores (Swisher 0 at 1B). I wouldn’t trust that completely. Needless to say, my observation was based on how well or not Hinske played D at 3B. I would leave this decision up to people who actually know what they’re talking about.
Concerning Shealy and Barton, I worked with what I had, all of their stats in the majors so far (@ 500 AB). I cannot predict reverse splits, but that observation was also based on projections by Marcel and James. Guess what, Shealy had better overall projections.
I would leave it up to the baseball guys to figure out how to platoon them best, not you or me. All I was saying was that he would be a useful, cheap part that would give us insurance (and help) at 1B. Why have one guy with potential when you could have two?
Again, no suggestions on your part. Are you afraid that I can find statistics/make assumptions to bash whatever you propose? It’s quite easy to do, as I’m sure you know.
by librariansunite on Nov 26, 2008 12:10 PM PST up reply actions
The reason why I'm not making suggestions on this thread
is that I’ve made suggestions, at considerable length, elsewhere. I don’t typically care to repeat myself and I’m not sure anyone else cares to read it over again.
However, since you asked— here’s what I’d do with rough impact on the 2009 payroll if we stipulate that the Braves bid $65 million for Furcal:
Sign Orlando Cabrera (3 years, $8 million)
Sign Randy Johnson (1 year, $8 million)
Sign Russell Branyan (1 year, $1.5 million)
Allow Crosby to be claimed on waivers (-$5 million)
Sign Matt Holliday to a 5-year contract extension, total value of $120 million including this season and bumping his 2008 pay to $20 million ($7 million)
2009 payroll is approx. $72 million.
On the fielding projections: Believe me, Sean Smith knows what he’s talking about. Rollins is an abominably overrated defender.
Swisher is projected at +5 runs in corner outfield, so the system doesn’t hate him, just doesn’t like him at first base.
And finally, you don’t need to rely on that to tell you Hinske isn’t an option at third anymore… he’s played 18 games there in the last 4 years. If he was better than Willy Aybar, he’d have been playing there for Tampa. And if you can’t beat out Willy Aybar, you aren’t much of a player.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Hey, I just realized something odd
Both of the Angels’ shortstops have brothers in MLB: Erick/Willy Aybar, Maicer/Cesar Izturis.
It’d really be funny if they somehow acquired Julio Lugo as well.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
And helpful to the A's if they acquired Ruddddy
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
it'd be equivalent to when they had the molina brothers
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 27, 2008 1:59 PM PST up reply actions
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