The Holliday Acquisition And Being Good In 2010 - Not Mutually Exclusive
I've heard a lot lately about the A's had better contend in 2009, since they have potentially compromised the very seasons for which they have seemingly been rebuildling: 2010-2012. I'm not sure the A's see it that way and here's why...
Let's assume the A's do not keep Holliday beyond 2009, because if they do then clearly they have taken care of the 2010+ seasons by making the trade. I think Beane and Co. looked at 2009 and saw the potential for a third consecutive sub-.500 year, saw the chance to acquire a huge asset for 90 cents on the dollar, and decided that improving the team now would be better both for team and fan morale (which translates into improved performance and improved interest/revenue, respectively), and that it could be done without preventing the team from moving forward in 2010 and beyond.
In 2010, the A's believe their rotation can be anchored by two very special pitchers in Cahill and Anderson, plus Gallagher (who should really be hitting full stride if he's going to), plus the best of Eveland, Gio, Mazzaro, Braden, Simmons - in other words, the rotation figures to be very, very good from 2010-2012, and a stellar rotation is the backbone to a team's success.The bullpen, with Devine, Ziegler, and Blevins under contract control for years to come, and with a slew of promising relief prospects at every level, is going to be very solid and will not require the A's to pony up any money or talent in order to have an enviable pen.
Meanwhile, come 2010 the A's can, if they choose, still employ Kurt Suzuki, Ryan Sweeney, Travis Buck, Aaron Cunningham, Mark Ellis, Eric Chavez, Jack Cust, Furcal if he is signed, the better or readier of Barton and Doolittle, and a Holliday-lite addition that the team will be able to afford, be it Jason Bay or an equivalent right-handed hitter with good power.
Then in 2011, a whole new set of prospects will be arriving as some veteran contracts, notably Ellis' and Chavez', expire - freeing up money, if needed, to address weaknesses or concerns. Those prospects include Chris Carter, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Donaldson, and Jemile Weeks.
In other words, armed with true talent and remarkable depth at the very most important positon - starting pitcher - and armed with a farm system that will be producing legitimate talent faster than the major league roster is losing players to free agency or age decline, with or without Holliday the A's are sitting pretty from 2010 on.
So if the A's are poised to ride the coattails of Cahill, Anderson, and an emerging veteran core of Suzuki, Sweeney, Buck, and Cunningham, starting in 2010, why not make 2009 as competitive as possible, take a shot at contending now, recreate the "culture of winning" the clubhouse knew from 2000-2003, and send the following message out to the rest of the American League: Look out folks, we're good again - and we're only going to get better.
Comments
That last paragraph
Sums up my thoughts beautifully.
Historically the A’s have- to borrow a line from Ebby Calvin LaLoosh- “announced their presence with authority” one season before “the special years”. OK, maybe not always with authority, but stay with me.
1970: Oakland won 89 games, nine behind Minnesota. The A’s won the AL West the next five seasons, and three World Series.
1987: Though they finished “only” 81-81, the pieces were falling in place for a championship revival. Over the next five years Oakland won four division titles, three pennants, and one World Series.
1999: The A’s went 87-75 before ringing in the next century with four straight playoff appearances (and five in seven years).
In the case of the 1987 and 1999 teams, those “pre-special” seasons followed a string of at least five consecutive losing campaigns (1982-86 and 1993-98).
So this is nothing new for Oakland, although let’s credit current management for getting the team ready for special-ness without making its fan base suffer through too many lean years.
I'm here to talk about the past.
by 67MARQUEZ on
Nov 25, 2008 6:22 AM PST
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At least in 1987
the point also held that the “announcement” season does not have to be accomplished with the same personnel as the first winning season. I distinctly remember a headline before the start of the 1988 season that lamented the loss of a load of familiar players: ‘87 A’s, Where Are You?
"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL
by oblique on
Nov 25, 2008 9:04 AM PST
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Yeah, you can say the A's
were quite active after the 1987 season.
I have a newspaper clipping of our main off-season pick-ups:
Dave Henderson, Dave Parker, Matt Young, Ron Hassey, Glen Hubbard, and Bob Welch
And La Russa’s famous quote: My top goal is to make sure that the club is not carried away with the power potential of this team."
I'm here to talk about the past.
by 67MARQUEZ on
Nov 25, 2008 9:23 AM PST
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Cahill and Anderson "anchoring" the rotation...
I think it’s a pretty safe assumption that neither will pitch a lot in the majors in 2009… so in 2010 they’re going to “anchor” the rotation?
Unless Gio, Gallagher, and Eveland get better control of their pitches, the 2010 rotation will be pretty mediocre. If the A’s plan on contending in 2010, then I think they’ll have to find another starting pitcher somewhere to “anchor” the rotation.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
by brenarlo on
Nov 25, 2008 6:48 AM PST
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I agree.
Cahill and Anderson may not have enough major-league experience by 2010 to “achor” the rotation.
by VORP is too nerdy on
Nov 25, 2008 8:20 AM PST
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I'm with you both on your sentiments here for the most part, except brenarlo's idea of
needing to add another starting pitcher. I don’t think that will be necessary, though I agree it wouldn’t necessarily hurt as a stopgap measure for a couple years, three years tops, if such a starter were available (Penny, maybe?)
Fair to say that the rotation in 2010 will still be very dependent on young and fairly unproven starters, and that Cahill and Anderson, if both ready to “anchor” the rotation from the get-go, will lack MLB experience and will have their ups and downs. How solid the rotation is will very much depend on how well Gallagher, Eveland, and then some combination of Gio, Outman, Braden, and perhaps Simmons and Mazzaro have come along- all of whom have the very real chance to be in the rotation at some point in 2009 I think.
So, we’ll see.
I do think, however, that while experience is valuable and makes a difference so does talent. And Beane recently said after the Holliday acquisition when discussing the possibility of adding a veteran starting pitcher for 2009 that he’d take young talented pitchers with less experience over veterans whose main value lies in their experience every time.
The really exciting thing, though, is to look at the whole list of names of starting pitchers that could be in the rotation in 2009 and 2010 and to realize that this is a young and pretty darned talented group. Between Cahill, Anderson, Gallagher, Eveland, Gonzalez, Simmons, Mazzaro, Outman, and Braden I would say there should be enough there to make a very good rotation that could anchor the club as a whole for a while. And that’s to say nothing of others in the system that are a little farther off still, like Leon, Inoa, Italiano, De Los Santos, Ross, Hunter… and maybe Bailey or Lansford are factors sooner rather than later actually… (disclaimer: I think H-Rod is destined for the ’pen.) Wow. Just WOW, is all that depth and potential fun to think about.
by still bills kingdom on
Nov 25, 2008 9:33 AM PST
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I think Cahill and Anderson will be on a faster track
than many believe – when you’re ready, you’re ready, and I think those guys are very close.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 9:52 AM PST
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Clayton Kershaw: Fantastic pitching prospect
ERA+ in 2008: 100
There really is no reason whatsoever to expect Cahill and Anderson to be effective starters in 2009. They aren’t as good, or as “ready,” as Kershaw was.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 25, 2008 10:30 AM PST
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We're talking about 2010
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 11:47 AM PST
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Not if the question is "should the A's sign a pitcher in 2009," we aren't
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 25, 2008 12:03 PM PST
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Define anchor...
Of course you’d take talent over just a “veteran” every time. But think about it for a second. I didn’t say we’d need a veteran just for the sake of adding a veteran. My point was that you need a good veteran somewhere in there who is better than the rest of the crop. I consider anchors to be pitchers who you know will get you 6-7 innings while keeping you in the ball game. Inexperienced talented pitchers, as talented as they can be and we know how talented ours are, seem to pitch very well or very poorly. Typically they’ll throw a lot of pitches too. I don’t see someone throwing 3 innings 1 game and 6 the next as being an anchor. You have to see them as they are… really good pitchers who haven’t learned how to pitch in the majors yet. They’ll have ups and downs.
So, you’re relying on talented wild pitchers to be the anchor or talented inexperienced pitchers to be the anchor. Either way, you’re not looking at a very good rotation. It would probably be mediocre.
To make it a really good rotation you’d probably have to add a GOOD veteran pitcher to anchor the staff.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
by brenarlo on
Nov 25, 2008 9:54 AM PST
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I totally get your point, and I understand your meaning of anchor, and we don't
disagree at all on the rotation in 2010 being potentially unreliable if the young pitchers in question don’t make some serious strides… I’m just of the opinion that they can make those strides in 2009 (meaning Gallagher, Eveland, and one or two of Braden, Outman, and Gonzalez) in the case of the young starters who have already seen MLB now, and that those starters coupled with the sheer talent level of Cahill and Anderson, if they’re ready, will be enough to make a potentially solid if not downright good rotation. Throw in Simmons, who I’m pretty sure will see time at the MLB level in 2009 (unless he takes a major step backward, which is always possible) and Mazzaro who I think will also get some time or at least a chance in the second half of the season, and I think you could have enough talent plus experience to potentially (and that’s the key word- none of us can know for sure) have a solid rotation for 2010 that will become a very, very good rotation by 2011.
Of course, if you’re on board with the Nico theory that Anderson might even make it to the bigs in 2009 at some point, then there’s a little extra seasoning for the youngsters too.
I guess it’s a question, as it always becomes ultimately, of allocation of resources- if the A’s have this much depth in terms of young, good starting pitching that’s beyond affordable for years, then why spend the extra money that should provide the team on more starting pitching when you could spend it upgrading what has been a woeful/inadequate offense? It will not be cheap at all to acquire a good veteran starting pitcher for 2009 and 2010, and to get a good one at all on the FA market you’ll need to go more years than that anyway probably… I could see the one year deal that’s been floated around here for Randy Johnson, maybe, just for 2009, but that doesn’t help with 2010 (maybe a similar deal could be found on the market then?) and aside from FA options if you were going to try and find such a veteran SP through trade then I suspect you’d be giving up more than you’d like in pieces that you’ll need for 2010 and beyond…
One pitcher out there right now that I could seriously see inking to a 2 or 3 year deal that might fit your description is Brad Penny, but I’d want to seriously look at the medical records first and I wouldn’t want to overpay or commit to more than 2 years plus an option or something… and I’d sure wait and see how the market evolved before I’d even start talking to him.
Do you have some suggestions on who the A’s might target for the veteran rotation anchor, either as a FA or through trade? I’m sure there are some intriguing possibilities- what’s your thinking along those lines?
by still bills kingdom on
Nov 25, 2008 10:19 AM PST
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Hudson, Mulder and Zito "anchoring" the rotation...
I think it’s a pretty safe assumption that none of them will pitch a lot in the majors in 1999… so in 2000 they’re going to “anchor” the rotation?
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on
Nov 25, 2008 1:58 PM PST
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Hudson's first partial season he was
11-2, 3.23. His first full season he won 20 games. Usually, rookies wobble a bit before settling in – not always. So generally you bring guys up when they’re ready and hope for the best, the soonest.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 2:01 PM PST
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Hudson "anchored" the rotation in 2000
Mulder was a 5th starter who got hurt and Zito came up late in the season and was sensational. They only became the Big 3 in 2001. I can see Cahill and Anderson coming up in the second half of 2010 and anchoring the rotation in 2011. The whole timetable here seems a year early.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Nov 25, 2008 3:29 PM PST
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Maybe. And maybe not.
We’ll see – I’d give it about 50/50 either way.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 4:25 PM PST
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Cahill/Anderson
I think we will most likely see both Cahill and Anderson in the Majors this year. Both performed well in the Olympics and Anderson was impressive in the AAA playoffs. I would expect them both to start at AAA this year and perhaps make an appearance in Oakland around mid-season.
by DeJay on
Nov 27, 2008 3:46 AM PST
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Didn't Gil Heredia anchor the rotation in 2000?
You see the problem here, I take it.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 25, 2008 5:59 PM PST
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I think folks are misinterpreting my idea of "anchor"
I don’t mean “two aces!” or even “#1 and #2 level starters” – I mean they will be ready to pitch effectively and move up towards the front of the rotation. Whether that last part happens early, middle, or late in 2010, or even at all, is unknown.
Look at Gallagher now, as a decent comp. By May, July, or Sept 2009, he may be pitching like a solid #2 starter. Or he may never be any good – we all know that can happen. But if he starts pitching like a front-end starter by mid-season, he will be one of the rotation’s anchors moving forward.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 6:58 PM PST
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Doesn't a rotation anchor have to pitch 200 innings with a 120 ERA+ or better?
If not, why do you need this anchor to be successful?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Nov 25, 2008 7:20 PM PST
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Right now the rotation is very fluid. By anchor,
I mean the rotation that will be the core for several years may have taken shape: Gallagher, Cahill, Anderson, and the “best of the rest” following 2009 to further separate the men from the boys (Eveland, Gio, Braden, etc.).
I think that rotation, in 2010, can be good, getting better as the season progresses, and better yet in 2011.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 7:29 PM PST
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FYI
Your interpretation of “anchor” is different from the common baseball usage of the term. Thus the confusion.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 25, 2008 7:51 PM PST
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Sorry, I'm not a sailor
The peg leg and parrot sometimes confuse people.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 7:52 PM PST
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That's OK, I'm just trying to help
My next post will critique your write-up.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 25, 2008 7:54 PM PST
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Please enlighten then.
Nico’s interpretation matches what I assume when I read the word.
What does “anchor” mean in common baseball usage, then? Innings-eater? Ace?
That’s a serious question. I honestly don’t know what you mean.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on
Nov 26, 2008 12:18 AM PST
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OK
When baseball commentators talk about a rotation anchor, they’re talking about the pitcher or pitchers you build the staff around. They tend to be the sure things. That’s not necessarily an Ace, although those same commentators will judge a 1 SP anchored staff around that guy’s Ace-hood. Here’s some examples:
Dave Stewart anchored the A’s rotation in the late 80’s/early 90’s. And he was considered an Ace.
Dan Haren and Joe Blanton anchored the 2007 rotation even though neither one was considered an Ace going into the season.
I don’t think (and it appears that Nico did not intend to imply) that Cahill and/or Anderson would meet either of those definitions in 2010.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 26, 2008 8:15 AM PST
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Thanks, g
For what it’s worth, my approximate guess is Anderson 2010 = Hudson 1999 and Cahill 2010 = Mulder 2000. But of course one can’t really predict with any certainty.
That’s assuming I’m remembering the years right. I’m aiming for Hudson when he came up mid-season and was totally awesome (plus a little lucky). And Mulder in his first year where he struggled a bit but showed promise.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on
Nov 26, 2008 12:08 PM PST
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Well, that straw man is dead
I am now convinced that the A’s will not be liquidating the franchise and becoming kitchen appliance salesmen if they don’t win a World Series next year. Woohoo!
I mean, it’s awfully hard for one trade to actually cripple a franchise. Are the Dodgers going to crawl into a cave next year and die? No, but don’t you think they wish they had their top 50 prospect catcher back now instead of doodly squat? Was half a season of Casey Blake really worth that? I guess they “sent a message,” but the message is “we’re going to overpay for people who aren’t going to help us that much.”
The only “message” that the Holliday trade might have sent was to Rafael Furcal. I dunno, maybe he just wouldn’t sign with Oakland unless they acquired a major additional piece and they were concerned he’d sign elsewhere before they could ink Dunn, Burrell or their ilk. Given that, the trade looks a little bit more logical. Of course, it also backs the team into a corner where if they DON’T get Furcal, they’re totally screwed.
Let me put this in as blunt of terms as possible: If you’re “sending messages” by overpaying in trades, it’s because you’re not sending those messages with your play on the field.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 25, 2008 8:27 AM PST
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I really don't see how this is a bad trade
Unless Carlos Gonzalez ends up being a very good player. And he could, of course, but I just don’t see it happening.
Even for one year of Holliday – and even if the A’s don’t make the playoffs – I don’t see how it’s an overpay to send a bad starter with little trade value, an injury-prone closer with little trade value in a flooded market, and a nothing-but-tools player to Colorado. None of the major prospects were given up. No vital parts of the major league team were given up. I just don’t see your argument outside of Gonzalez being a future Hall of Famer, but I can’t really see how anybody can have such a high opinion of him.
by thejd44 on
Nov 25, 2008 11:40 AM PST
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The reason why is that 6 years of average play are worth more than one MVP season
and there’s some value to even below-average play when it’s a. not much below average, and b. cheap. The Holliday trade makes it highly likely that the A’s will be wasting $10-15M a season, out of an already low payroll, for the next 3-4 years replacing production that could have been provided almost for free. Basically, you just signed Pat Burrell to a 5 year deal, except that you’re only getting him (albeit a somewhat better version of him) for one season.
Gonzalez could be a total bust, but it really doesn’t seem very likely to me unless he completely stops playing defense. Even last year, when he was raw as all hell, he was above replacement level. Ditto for Smith, even when you account for the fact that he was pretty lucky last season. Maybe Smith would quickly have been squeezed out of the rotation anyway, but you certainly can’t say that about Gonzalez or Street.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 25, 2008 12:19 PM PST
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I think your overstating the loss of Street and Smith
When you say that the A’s will be wasting $10-$15M a season trying to replace them it assumes we’ll be looking to the free agent market to fill those roles. I think it is much more likely that they will be replaced from within by players who are just as cost controlled over the near future. The A’s aren’t going to bring in Jason Marquis and Jeremy Affeldt to fill up the roster, the replacements over the next 5 years are going to be along the lines of James Simmons and Sam Demel.
I really don’t think it’s going to be a financial burden on the A’s to find a 5th starter and a bullpen arm in the near future.
by DiegoAsFan on
Nov 25, 2008 12:54 PM PST
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That means that the A's aren't trading those two players for another form of value, though
There’s no free lunch— there’s always some kind of opportunity cost.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 25, 2008 1:19 PM PST
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a different way to look at this, that I've been pondering recently:
what kind of prospect (package) could we have gotten for Cargon+Street+Smith?
probably one that we would have been pretty excited about, and one that would have had value for multiple years rather than just 1.
there are probably some flaws in this, but I still think it’s an interesting way to think about it.
Save Rajai Davis
by oakinboston on
Nov 25, 2008 1:09 PM PST
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plus, we will get 2 picks if Holliday walks...
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on
Nov 25, 2008 12:59 PM PST
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Draft picks are VERY unlikely to pan out.
There’s only a 50% chance the A’s even get a 1st round pick.
I know that's a pisser, baby.
by Blicks on
Nov 25, 2008 1:05 PM PST
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In the case of Holliday, it might be a little better than 50%
but in any event, it’s guaranteed never to be a top 15 pick— and picks after the top 15 rapidly decrease in value.
Believe it or not, “Cliff Pennington and Richie Robnett” is about the average return on free agent compensation picks. Which isn’t that much.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 25, 2008 1:23 PM PST
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And if Holliday walks after 2009 he will likely net two first rounders who could be up in 2013-14 to reinforce the team.
So it’s sort of a deposit of spare prospects now for new prospects later, with a year of veteran help in between.
Though you can still argue that giving up Carlos was a mistake.
by LoneStranger on
Nov 25, 2008 8:47 AM PST
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That's the main issue -
if Gonzalez taps into his potential and becomes a very good player, the trade might backfire. But the A’s do have enough young OF depth that CarGon will have to become more than “good” for the trade to be a mistake.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 9:53 AM PST
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Agreed
And I just don’t think Gonzalez will ever be more than “good.” And I think “good” is pushing it. I just wasn’t very impressed with his inability to recognize what pitch was coming at him (or his ability to not swing at pitches nowhere near the strikezone). I know he’s young and has all these tools and all this potential, but if I were given the option of “bust” or “superstar” with nothing in between, I’d bet on him being a bust in a heartbeat.
by thejd44 on
Nov 25, 2008 11:42 AM PST
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I don't think Gonzalez will "bust"
Gonzalez does have a ways to go to live up to the lofty expectation placed on him (which he may never reach), but he doesn’t have that far to go to be merely “good”. He played great defense at a critical position this last year, his offense doesn’t have to get that much better to make him a legitiamte major league starter. The only way I can imagine him as a “bust” is if his bat completely stagnates and doesn’t improve at all.
Gonzalez has serious issues with his approach at the plate that need to be addressed before he becomes a “star”, but it doesn’t take much imagination to see him as a major league average CFer who is cost controlled for the next 6 years.
by DiegoAsFan on
Nov 25, 2008 1:05 PM PST
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No worries here
Lets not worry about Holiday right now and just let it ride out. Cahill, anderson, mazzaro, gonzalez, and simmons will be the anchor of the starting rotation in 2012. Very bright future. Except for a 3bman in 2012 you can see every position solid. Look for the A’s to draft 3b in the up coming drafts to solidify the position.
by Arcman on
Nov 25, 2008 9:06 AM PST
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Basically agree
Low risk trade because of depth at SP and bullpen. I don’t really think the A’s have a lot of quality depth in the OF. Sweeney, Buck, Cunningham – none of them project as stars. So this only looks bad longterm if Gonzalez becomes a star and the draft choices are horrible. It does still kind of stick in my craw that they could have dealt Street independently for quality and that Smith and Gonzalez should have been enough for a one year rental – but apparently that’s not the case. At the very least, I wish they’d gotten another player coming back in the trade.
by boilerdan on
Nov 25, 2008 12:17 PM PST
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This is funny
I just woke up from a dream of the A’s playing on Opening Day this coming season. Holliday took a first pitch strike, someone yelled something at him and he proceeded to turn around and hit lefty… against a lefty pitcher. Of course he hit a 2-run bomb right there so looks like the trades already paying off.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on
Nov 25, 2008 12:28 PM PST
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your dreams involve switch hitting too?
Save Rajai Davis
by oakinboston on
Nov 25, 2008 1:21 PM PST
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your dreams involve my dad?
I'm here to talk about the past.
by 67MARQUEZ on
Nov 25, 2008 1:29 PM PST
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The trade of Gonzalez created a pretty big hole in CF. Sweeney should be OK this
year, but he’s not going to be an adequate CF for very long defensively. Maybe with a groundballing staff it won’t matter much, but I’d still like to address it somehow. The next CF prospect may be Weeks and he’s a ways away, and a 2B. I don’t really believe in Brown.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Nov 25, 2008 1:42 PM PST
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Thanks for killing the straw man, Nico.
I was really getting tired of that guy.
It seems like lately AN has been dominated with the view that we gave away the farm for one year of Holliday, who is worthless unless we re-sign him or we’re “going for it” in 2009. I’m glad to see an opposing view on the front page.
It’s nice to be reminded that, although they’re good players, Street, Smith and Gonzalez aren’t really essential to our success in 2010. More important, I’m tired of the sentiment that it means nothing to be better in 2009 than we would have been. It means a lot. For starters, it means we get to stop sucking a year sooner. That counts for something.
I’m certainly not arguing for ignoring future investment for the sake of winning now, but some people go way too far in the other direction. You can’t always be comparing one year of X right now against two years of Y down the road without considering any discount for delayed gratification. Winning in 2011 is not exactly equal to winning in 2009, because 2009 is now and 2011 is not.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on
Nov 25, 2008 2:22 PM PST
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sometimes I eat the last piece of cake cause it's there and looks so yummy, and then afterward realize that I should have waited until I had milk to go with it.
by LoneStranger on
Nov 25, 2008 2:26 PM PST
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Only to remember that some idiot traded the milk
for two calves who might give milk in a couple years.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 4:27 PM PST
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What, you don't like calves?
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on
Nov 25, 2008 5:33 PM PST
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They're delicious!
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Nov 25, 2008 7:24 PM PST
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Veal be in cramped cages if you need us
:-(
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 8:53 PM PST
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Two points:
1. I’m not dying (as far as I know)… Personally, I really couldn’t care less whether the A’s win now or in 2011, if it’s a choice between the two.
2. Winning in 2011 is a lot better than NOT winning in 2009, which is likely to be what happens if the A’s don’t “go for it.”
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 25, 2008 6:04 PM PST
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"Go for it" in 2009 or not, Street would be gone in 2011,
Smith would be about 12th on the A’s starting pitcher depth chart, and Gonzalez would either be very good and entering his prime or “a toolsy bust” entering his prime.
And as it currently stands, in 2011 the A’s will either have Holliday because they decided to invest in him long-term, or they will have the payroll flexibility of having neither Holliday’s nor Chavez’ contract blocking them from paying another top hitter market value.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 7:03 PM PST
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True
but if they still had Carlos Gonzalez, they also would have that payroll flexibility and very possibly would have a quality CF for free, which is kind of helpful.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 25, 2008 7:31 PM PST
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Yup - that's the part that hurts
Unless Gonzalez is a bust. Personally, I’m in the camp who believes he’ll be good (possibly in part due to Coors enhanced stats, but mostly due to maturing into a productive “low OBP-high SLG” hitter with excellent defense), so I wasn’t happy about seeing him go.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 7:35 PM PST
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Which brings us to the idea
that adding to your W-L record is meaningless in a season where you don’t get to the playoffs.
I think we’ve already established that we disagree on that.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on
Nov 26, 2008 12:24 AM PST
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Oh, no, you're not getting away with that one
I have yet to see a single serious analysis anywhere which suggests that this trade is going to gain the A’s wins from a quantitative standpoint— and, in fact, it’s damned nearly impossible for it to do so even if Street blows out his elbow, Smith and Gonzalez are roster filler, and Holliday wins the 2009 MVP award.
Every analytical justification of the trade that I’ve seen is based on the fact that Holliday’s wins are much more likely to take the team to the playoffs, and that that major increase in World Series chances for one season offsets the minor increase in World Series chances that the players the A’s gave up would provide over the next 6 seasons.
If what you care about is winning more regular season games, irrespective of their impact on a playoff race, you should be pissed as hell about this trade. The best argument FOR the trade is that S/S/G were (in this view) not likely to provide many if any wins above playoff level, and thus would have been placeholders on a contender.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 26, 2008 1:40 AM PST
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Wait, you're saying
you don’t think the Holliday trade make the A’s less bad in 2009?
For the sake of argument, go ahead and assume I do care only about regular season games and care nothing for playoffs. (It’s not true, but I definitely lean much more in that direction than most fans.) You’re saying in that case I should totally hate this trade? How do you figure?
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on
Nov 26, 2008 12:17 PM PST
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Sure it makes them less bad in 2009
But it makes them more bad in 2010-2014…
Even a pessimistic projection of Gonzalez, Street and Smith has them providing something like 15 wins above replacement over the next 6 seasons (1.5 WAR/season for Gonzalez for 6 years, 2 WAR for Street for 2 years, 2 random WAR for Smith as a long reliever). An optimistic projection of Holliday has him providing, eh, 6? 7 at most?
The attraction of Holliday is that he concentrates those wins into a single year and roster spot, making it much easier to stuff enough additional wins onto the roster to make the playoffs. If you don’t care about the playoffs, that’s pretty much irrelevant, and the trade is all bad news.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 26, 2008 1:21 PM PST
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"If you don’t care about the playoffs ..."
Hey, I’m as into the Big Picture long-term competitiveness thing as the next nerd, but … “If you don’t care about the playoffs”? Really?
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 26, 2008 2:53 PM PST
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I think you missed the back story here, M
For the sake of argument, we’re assuming I don’t care about the playoffs. Paul isn’t saying he doesn’t care about the playoffs; he’s postulating that I don’t and demonstrating why he thinks that should make me hate the Holliday trade even more.
Ultimately, I’m exploring the claim that the Holiday trade makes sense ONLY if you’re going for it all in 2009 (and thus also the corollary that says because the Holliday trade did happen and Beane isn’t stupid, we should therefore expect more “go for it” moves for 2009).
I suspect that there’s some value in improving the team for 2009 even if we still miss the playoffs. My basic idea is that while a shot at the playoffs is certainly one factor (as is the small possibility of extending Holliday’s contract) the sum rationale also considers that even if neither of those happens it still wasn’t worthless, and that additional factor is what makes it a positive deal over all.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on
Nov 26, 2008 4:05 PM PST
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Let me try a different tack here
So imagine you’re Billy Beane. And imagine that you’ve just awoken on the morning of November 11. Your head is splitting, your eyes are fogged, and there’s a spill on the floor that looks like beer mixed with ecstasy. After dragging yourself to the shower, throwing up 3 or 4 times, and stumbling to your desk, you see a note from MLB saying “we approved the Matt Holliday trade.” Stunned, you open ESPN.com and discover that you, in a drunken, drug-induced haze, have somehow agreed to trade for Matt Holliday. It’s too late to do anything about it, the trade’s already gone through. Your guys aren’t coming back.
After drowning your head in a bucket of coffee, you start thinking about what to do next. Suddenly you have a pretty good roster— for one season. Do you: 1. attempt to add on to that roster and make a serious push for the playoffs while Matt Holliday is with your team, or 2. not do that?
You see what I’m getting at here? The Holliday trade is over. Done. Fait accompli. Etc etc etc. For whatever reason, Matt Holliday is an A for one season. Given that situation, why would you not make every effort to upgrade the team and compete?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 26, 2008 4:36 PM PST
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Honestly, I'd address the booze and ecstasy problem first,
but then I might try to sign Furcal.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 26, 2008 5:00 PM PST
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Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 26, 2008 4:20 PM PST
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LOL @ Nico
Keep the ecstacy problem
Good analogy from PT.
by Trainman on
Nov 27, 2008 11:46 AM PST
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The ex-Stacy problem is more annoying
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 27, 2008 3:30 PM PST
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Only if your name is Gregory House
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 27, 2008 5:56 PM PST
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I say go BIG
If I was the A’s owner Lew I would just say F it, spend $200 million on Mark Texeria. He is as good of a bet as there is. Young, great defender, switch hitter. Then sit back wait for the young pitching to come through the system and fill any holes with the surplus in young talent as it matures. This will never happen for various reasons, most importantly I’m sure the owner wants to run a profit. But every once and a while a solid gamble comes around. Or alteratively if Holliday does well in Oakland, spend the money on him.
by LBDirtbags on
Nov 25, 2008 3:44 PM PST
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If the A's are going to spend on a "big-time" signing, it should be Teixeira or Holliday
Even if the rest of the payroll is kept moderately low (as in no other big ticket guys), those two are the two who are the least likely to define.
They are both top(elite) defenders at their positions, unlike a majority of the other 1B/OF candidates out there. Although I’d prefer Holliday, since he’ll be cheaper (OF defense is vastly underrated, IMO. Defense in general is underrated, but especially OF defense) and probably come with a lower year commitment.
I know that's a pisser, baby.
by Blicks on
Nov 25, 2008 5:18 PM PST
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Well, exception to the promise would be Furcal
I’m saying over 50MM, should be a Teixeira or Holliday.
I know that's a pisser, baby.
by Blicks on
Nov 25, 2008 5:20 PM PST
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I'm not sure defense is really underrated. How much less do you think Dunn's going to get
than Holliday?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Nov 25, 2008 5:23 PM PST
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furcal/nick johnson
The A’s continued their aggressive courtship of Rafael Furcal on Tuesday, meeting in Oakland with the free-agent shortstop, his wife, Glenny, and his agent, Paul Kinzer, according to major-league sources.
Furcal visited A’s officials at the Oakland Coliseum, toured communities where he might live and had a two-hour lunch with A’s general manager Billy Beane.
The A’s have yet to make Furcal a formal offer, sources say, but the two sides expect to speak again Wednesday and possibly discuss financial terms.
Furcal, 31, is seeking a four-year contract.
The Giants also are interested in signing him and an unidentified third club is in the mix, according to Kinzer. The Dodgers have all but conceded that Furcal is gone.
If the A’s sign Furcal, they likely would trade shortstop Bobby Crosby, who is signed for one more year at $5.25 million. The A’s are not interested in any other free-agent shortstops.
The signing of Furcal would be the A’s second major move of the offseason. The team earlier acquired left fielder Matt Holliday from the Rockies for reliever Huston Street, left-hander Greg Smith and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.
Beane might not stop with Holliday and Furcal. The A’s have requested and received the medical records of Nationals first baseman Nick Johnson, who underwent season-ending wrist surgery last June.
The teams have yet to discuss a trade, and Johnson, 30, might not be ready for Opening Day. But the A’s long have coveted his on-base skills, and could pursue him as an alternative to Daric Barton at first base.
* http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8850756/Sources:-Furcal-meets-with-A%27s-officials-in-Oakland
by Asfan4ever723 on
Nov 25, 2008 6:14 PM PST
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OMFG I love nick johnson
Does he have a history of playing good defense? I believe he does.
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
by ChadGod on
Nov 25, 2008 7:02 PM PST
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Nick Johnson is a "holy grail" type of player for Beane
Ginormous OBP combined with good power. Kind of a lefty Kevin Youkilis – except for his complete inability to stay healthy even for a half hour. If the A’s could just get a break from the DL Gods and actually capture “health in a bottle,” Nick Johnson could be a huge pickup. History, however, has been less optimistic than it has been for Harden, Buck, or Chavez.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 7:08 PM PST
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Nick Johnson
Hit the farthest ball I’d ever seen hit in high school baseball. That alone is enough for me to want him on the A’s lol.
by chri5 on
Nov 25, 2008 7:21 PM PST
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Fun facts about Nick Johnson:
1. His career OBP is .396
2. Last year he hit only .220, yet still had an OBP of .415
3. His past three seasons, he has had an OBP of .408 or higher and an OPS of .846 or higher
4. He’s actually only 30 years old
5. The last two years, he has played a total of 38 games.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 7:34 PM PST
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i know all of that. And of course I’m irrationally disregarding his injury history, and likelihood he will be injured again.
by chri5 on
Nov 25, 2008 7:41 PM PST
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To be honest...
…I’d forgotten he was still around.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
by UncleLeo on
Nov 25, 2008 8:37 PM PST
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Better not give up anything of consequence for Nick Johnson
He’s played 38 games in the last 2 seasons.
I could see swapping Crosby for him… they’re both getting overpaid for their production…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 25, 2008 7:36 PM PST
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And they're about equally productive for the other 100 games
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 7:43 PM PST
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I'm not sure why the Nats would want Crosby when they already have Guzman and Zimmerman.
I can see trading someone like Denorfia maybe.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Nov 25, 2008 8:14 PM PST
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They extended Guzman?
Shit, they did. OK, um, that was really dumb, Bowden.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 25, 2008 10:47 PM PST
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They think that Guzman's crap years were because of bad eyesight
He got his eyes Lasik’d and now he can see the ball. He ‘s 31 next year and signed through 2010 at $8 million annual. If memory serves he was alright with the glove in 2008. His offense is tied directly to his ability to hit .300, as he doesn’t walk or strike out often.
Honestly, while you may not like the move I don’t see how it in anyway qualifies for the “really dumb” category.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 26, 2008 8:23 AM PST
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agreed
doubt they want crosby though…with guzman around
maybe some expendable guys like cassilla, patterson, etc + ok prospect
A’s take on johnson’s 1 yr deal
03/11/06: Signed three-year, $16.5 million contract extension. 2008: $5.5 million, 2009: $5.5 million, 2010: Free Agent
maybe beane can swindle his man crush milledge if legit prospect are offered, nats lessen their OF depth
actually i’d prefer willingham over johnson though
by Asfan4ever723 on
Nov 25, 2008 9:08 PM PST
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Certainly the A's could be good in 2010
However, I think it’s unlikely that it will be on the coattails of Anderson/Cahill. They could contribute, sure. But it’s unlikely to be on their backs.
Those guys will be 22 that year. The list of AL starters who have been dominant at age 22 in the last decade is a very short list.
Hudson broke out at age 24, and Mulder got hit hard his first year before breaking out at 23/24. Sure, Zito did well at 22, but since the league was seeing his unique curve ball for the first time, I’d call his success an outlier. His K-to-walk was unimpressive, and the league hit only .195 off him.
I could see Anderson/Cahill getting time in the league in 2010, sure. But a more realistic timeline for “fronting a rotation” and coat tail-riding is 2011, at earliest, when both guys are 23.
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on
Nov 25, 2008 7:01 PM PST
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I guess I'm splitting the difference, figuring that they
might be “only ok but promising” the first half of 2010 and might “emerge” the second half – kind of like Haren and Blanton did in 2005.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 7:09 PM PST
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I don't think the Holliday trade
impedes the A’s ability to compete past 2009 in the slightest. 2010 was going to be Huston’s last year in Oakland anyway (unless his elbow blew out and we could have kept him for cheap). if you can’t find a pitcher as good as Greg Smith for your rotation, you’re not trying very hard.
Gonzalez would probably be very nice to have on the 2010 squad, but as always, what will make the A’s tick that year is pitching, and nothing of significance long-term was lost in that deal on the pitching front.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on
Nov 25, 2008 7:59 PM PST
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Agreed. If anything, the one thing it means
might be focusing on a CFer for 2010 or 2011, instead of on a different position. But you’re always looking to improve somewhere – CF isn’t the best place to have to look, but that could have been the case anyway had CarGon stayed but not improved.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 8:02 PM PST
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Is it really THAT hard to tell the difference between
“a 25% chance of needing an alternative solution” and “a 75% chance of needing an alternative solution”?
Are you guys actually arguing that there is no difference between those two scenarios? That the difference has zero value or “impact on the A’s ability to compete”? Serious question.
BTW, I was glancing at the center field free agents for the next few years… and man, is it ever a desolate frigging wasteland. Coco Crisp is a headline option.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 25, 2008 10:54 PM PST
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No, it's not THAT hard.
I’m ARGUING Matt HOLLIDAY is worth HAVING to work 50% HARDER to fill one OF nine positions in 2010.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on
Nov 26, 2008 11:51 AM PST
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OK, so, you're just changing your argument...
It would help if you actually said that, instead of statements that bear no relation to it like “I don’t think the Holliday trade impedes the A’s ability to compete past 2009 in the slightest.”
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 26, 2008 1:25 PM PST
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You're right.
Instead of “in the slightest” I should have said “only very slightly.”
I am confident of the farm system’s ability to replace what’s been lost from the big league roster with little difficulty. It’s specious reasoning to add up the wins above replacement that Street, Smith, and Gonzalez comprise, and say the A’s big-league roster is so much worse off in 2010-2014. That presupposes that there isn’t ample talent to replace what they’d have brought waiting in the wings—which there is.
We traded a tiny bit of talent, comparatively speaking, from areas of great strength to get significantly better for next year. There isn’t a thing wrong with that.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on
Nov 26, 2008 8:51 PM PST
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I don't agree, especially with regard to Gonzalez
As of right now the 2010 outfield is Buck, Sweeney and Cunningham. Not only is that not a particularly good outfield, it’s definitely a particularly injury-prone outfield. Past that… I like Denorfia but even I’ll acknowledge that he’s a shot in the dark at this point. Matt Murton hasn’t done much to make me think he’s more than a fluke, and Rajai Davis is pretty thin gruel. Past that you start getting into guys like Eric Patterson, Rich Robnett… I’m not filled with confidence.
Maybe in 2011 Doolittle or Carter or Brown or Weeks will show up and be awesome, but there’s no guarantee of that. As far as I can tell, to maintain competitiveness the A’s are probably going to have to pay up for a free agent outfielder (possibly Holliday himself), which means that money isn’t going to fill another hole on the roster like third base.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 27, 2008 9:46 AM PST
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I suppose one key is how good an OF
of Buck, Sweeney, and Cunningham would be. Beane has a man-crush on Sweeney and I sure hope he’s right. That OF certainly lacks power overall and is not great defensively IMO.
But I don’t foresee that ever being the A’s OF. I think a power hitter will man a corner OF position: Holliday this season, either Holliday, Bay, or an equivalent in 2010, etc.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 27, 2008 10:03 AM PST
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And don't forget they've been playing Doolittle in the OF as well...
How serious an attempt they’re making at seeing if he’ll potentially stick out there I don’t know, but that makes him another possibility come 2010 or later.
By 2010-2011 it’ll be time to see where Dixon, Brown, and perhaps Weeks, et al might fit into the scheme of the outfield for the big league club too. I’m not saying they’ll be ready by then, but perhaps one or more of them will be very close. And I’m sure I’m forgetting more than one decent OF prospect still at the lower levels, which just shows the organizational depth the A’s currently have for that area of concern.
by still bills kingdom on
Nov 27, 2008 11:32 AM PST
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And underscores the lack of depth
they have at SS and 3B.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 27, 2008 3:31 PM PST
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But the A's are going to trade for that SS or 3B prospect any day now, right?
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 27, 2008 4:51 PM PST
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I check the wire every morning
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 27, 2008 5:55 PM PST
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You know how many players have been plus MLB starters in the outfield at age 19?
I’ll give you the list in the last 20 years:
Andruw Jones.
Dixon’s not even remotely close to that timetable. Not even remotely. Brown, eh, I’ll give you that, but he’s not reliable. Weeks hasn’t even played the outfield yet. I guess Matt Sulentic might be ready by then, but I’m not a fan of his upside. Past that, you’re basically looking at non-prospects and recent mid-round draftees.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 27, 2008 6:14 PM PST
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Well, fair enough- but even if we go on the assumption that
nobody else develops soon enough to be ready in, say, 2011… if Doolittle can handle a corner OF spot like the organization seems to be trying to determine and seems to think he can potentially manage, then that would still leave us with Buck, Cunningham, Sweeney, and Doolittle as starting options and a whole host of other characters who could play a reserve role by 2011 (and maybe by some point in 2010, actually.) And, assuming he doesn’t become too pricey or something, Jack Cust can still play LF as needed, too.
As for Dixon, I agree that 2011 is probably reaching, but in checking his D.O.B. again it appears he’d be 20 at season’s start that year and 21 by August of that year. I think you’re right that he’ll need more time than that- 2 years probably isn’t quite enough because he’s shown the talent but it’s still pretty raw potential at this point.
Brown seems a much more likely bet for 2011, Sulentic is intriguing, and from there we’ve got a whole host of guys who might or might not have shown something over the next two years- like Tyreace House, for instance, or maybe Jeremy Barfield.
My main point was just that there is significant talent and depth at OF in the A’s system now, and you never know how that’ll pan out- but there will be options. Some won’t pan out at all most likely, but some might also be ready more quickly than we think, sitting here in late 2008.
I still happen to agree with the idea that signing Holliday long-term to really put a good bat in the line-up and solidify LF for years to come would be a good idea if it’s an achievable outcome; barring that, I’d like to see the A’s make a play for Jason Bay if he does reach free agency next offseason, perhaps, or find somebody else through trade or free agency that can really put some power into the outfield while playing solid defense for 2010 through, say, 2012 or 2013 maybe. I don’t think that’s a bad idea at all.
I was just ruminating on what’s available if that doesn’t happen- and it does seem possible to me that they’ll be ok, even sans Gonzalez now. What will be interesting to see is how Gonzalez does going forward- I think we’ll all be watching and continually evaluating the Holliday trade based on what happens with him, what happens with the A’s in 2009, and what the A’s do about the outfield after 2009.
by still bills kingdom on
Nov 28, 2008 12:14 AM PST
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OK... fact is, that money ISN'T being spent on Troy Glaus, Adrian Beltre, or whomever else might fill the hole at third
There’s always an opportunity cost.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 27, 2008 6:17 PM PST
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Fair enough
Does Gonzalez really make that much of a difference as an upgrade over one of those guys, though? Seems to me if the 2010+ A’s are going to be competitive, they needed to pay for a guy like Holliday regardless of whether or not they kept Gonzalez.
Also, we can suffer a crappy offensive centerfielder if other parts of the offense improve, such as Cardenas or Barton. God knows the 2000-2003 A’s teams did.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on
Nov 27, 2008 6:52 PM PST
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"Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and f*ck the prom queen."
Do you want to continue on the never-ending quest for the best “hot prospects”, or do you wanna take a shot at getting to f*ck the prom queen come October?
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
by UncleLeo on
Nov 25, 2008 8:41 PM PST
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Great - I FINALLY get
to f*ck the prom queen, and I have to choose between that and watching an A’s playoff game? Can she call back in November?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 8:55 PM PST
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This is kind of weird.
I was actually thinking of asking Cindi to the prom. But I get all nervous when she comes by.
I'm here to talk about the past.
by 67MARQUEZ on
Nov 25, 2008 8:59 PM PST
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And even more so when the cop drives by?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 9:05 PM PST
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You'll have to excuse my son, Nico
He thinks sneaking on AN while I’m in the bathroom is funny.
I'm here to talk about the past.
by 67MARQUEZ on
Nov 25, 2008 9:08 PM PST
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It is, kinda
You’ll have to excuse Cindi – sometimes she actually poses as me.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 25, 2008 9:13 PM PST
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< Google image search >
"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL
by oblique on
Nov 25, 2008 9:35 PM PST
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Dude. That's what the VCR is for.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on
Nov 26, 2008 12:37 AM PST
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Drop the extra $5 on Tivo
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 26, 2008 8:25 AM PST
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I'm old school
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on
Nov 26, 2008 12:18 PM PST
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I'm just old
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 26, 2008 5:02 PM PST
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I must have missed the arguments saying 2010-2012 had been compromised
That or this is a question of semantics, ’cause in my lingo “compromised” is merely a polite way to say “well and truly screwed”. Which is actually the PG version of what I typically say in that situation.
Acquiring Holliday does not screw the A’s in 2010 and beyond even if they don’t sign him to an extension. The trade does hamper the A’s ability to add talent during those years, to say nothing of the lost production from not having Gonzalez/Street/Smith on the roster. How great of a loss that will be shall be largely determined by the event of the 2009 season. If Chavez comes back healthy and Furcal is signed and produces and Ellis is healthy and Barton quits moshing against the concrete and the hot prospects continue to develope then not having the departed 3 won’t be too bad.
If Chavez isn’t healthy or Furcal doesn’t sign or Barton continues to be a fool or some prospects flame out (or any combination therein) then not having Gonzalez/Smith/Street available as trade chips is a problem. Possibly a very serious problem. Which is why the potential reward for trading those 3 for 1 guaranteed year of Holliday needs to be maximized. A non-sub-.500 season does not qualify. Make the trade, sign Furcal and pull off one more move and go for it. You may not win a WS title, but taking the shot beats half-assing it and playing the middle ground.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 26, 2008 8:42 AM PST
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Beane's strategy in all this appears somewhat schizophrenic
Let’s see…you trade Swisher for Sweeney and G.Gonzalez; then
You trade C.Gonzalez, Smith, and Street for Holliday?
Just take those 2 deals alone, and rearrange the pieces -
Swisher, Gonzalez in the outfield. Vs. Sweeney, Holliday in the outfield…
Never mind, option #2 sounds better. But it doesn’t seem like a huge improvement, and I’m biased because Swisher had an atypical bad year last year.
Overall, they have been good deals though – the Haren deal alone has brought in Holliday and Anderson. Presumably 2 great players for a very, very good but not superb, not an ace-pitcher in Haren.
It’s almost like Beane decided to wipe the slate clean in 2007. Said, nope – let’s erase the blackboard, load up on chips, and try this over again. But it is weird because this club is far, far more active in trades than almost any other team.
by halflink123 on
Nov 28, 2008 6:53 PM PST
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