Bobby Crosby Reaches the Point of No Return
It's always fascinating for me to see a player seemingly told that his career is in jeopardy with his current team. Bobby Crosby has essentially been told that. It's not just in that blog post, but there is common knowledge everywhere that the A's are pursuing Rafael Furcal. There has also been speculation that if the A's miss out on Furcal that they're going to immediately pursue Edgar Renteria instead.
The bottom line is pretty clear. It appears that Crosby's days in Oakland are numbered. I guess I'm wondering, do you get to the point of no return with a player as management where there's no chance that a guy will be back? Let's say, for example, that the A's are unwilling to go to the same insane extremes to sign Furcal that a team like the Giants is willing to do. Then one of the other teams that misses out on Furcal decides that Renteria is their backup plan. I don't know about you, but I don't want the A's overpaying for Renteria. I wouldn't mind it as much with Furcal because Furcal is above average for his position. And Furcal is about two years younger. Just following the free agent market over the years, teams are very much willing to overpay for a position that is in short supply. Short stop this year appears to be one of those positions.
Here's the question though. If the A's don't upgrade the position through free agency, do they then look to deal Crosby regardless? It's not exactly a motivator to hear that the GM who drafted you and handed the starting job to you to replace a local legend has "lost patience with you." I personally think it's tough to come back from that sentiment. Then again, maybe Beane knows Crosby well enough to think that he might respond on the field if he feels like it's his "last chance." I doubt that's the case.
If I had to venture a guess, mine would be that Crosby will be gone come the start of the season 2009. Possibly even before the end of 2008. There's a high probabilty that someone thinks that Crosby would benefit by being in a new location. And they're probably right. Crosby's gotten to that place with A's fans where he's one of those players that we all fear coming up to bat in any crucial situation. There's just no going back from there. Especially when the GM is included in the folks who feel that way. Beane has been incredibly patient with Crosby up until this point. But I do believe that they've finally reached that breaking point. The point of no return. Even if the A's don't succeed in getting one of the big shortstops, I could see them turning to Pennington and giving him a shot. It just would seem weird in a season where it looks like the A's are going to try to be competitive that they'd go that route. That's more of an A's mentality from 2008, not the one that went out and got Matt Holliday.
Do you think we've seen the last of Crosby in Oakland? Or could this possibly just be a motivational move on Beane's part?
Comments
orioles?
i could see a fit there
izturis will cost just as much as crosby
orioles dont want to over pay the top SS FA’s
crosby (if healthy) you would think could do better in that park
A’s pay a chunk of his salary
banish him to mlb loserville there, match made in heaven
Aside from Izturis, the Orioles’ other most viable shortstop options are available in trades. The Orioles have had discussions with the San Diego Padres about Khalil Greene and with the Oakland Athletics about Bobby Crosby, according to industry sources. This offseason, the Padres asked for left-handed starter Garrett Olson for Greene, but the Orioles weren’t interested in the deal.
Crosby, who was seen as the heir apparent to Miguel Tejada as the A’s shortstop, has played in more than 100 games just once in the past four seasons and has a career batting average of .239. However, it’s his durability that concerns the Orioles most.
by Asfan4ever723 on
Nov 21, 2008 9:01 AM PST
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It makes some sense to allow the Orioles to claim him on waivers or for a token prospect
They have money and a bad farm system, and need the supplemental round pick he’ll probably give them. The A’s need to free up the cash that they owe him for next season. $5 million for a sandwich pick? Seems like a pretty fair deal to me.
That only works, of course, if the A’s can find a better option at short.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 11:08 AM PST
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Their farm system isn't great,
but it’s not bad either. Not with Wieters, Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Nov 21, 2008 1:43 PM PST
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How about shallow, instead of bad?
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 1:47 PM PST
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Yeah, that's a better description
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 2:13 PM PST
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"However, it’s his durability that concerns the Orioles most."
That makes sense … I’d be worried that he’d be durable enough to play, too …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on
Nov 21, 2008 4:49 PM PST
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I know - it was TERRIBLE this year!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 21, 2008 7:15 PM PST
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this all seems pretty likely, but we're piling speculation on top of speculation
What have we actually seen?
- A ton of anonymously sourced “A’s looking at Furcal” stories starting a month ago
- A couple articles this week quoting Furcal’s agent that the A’s are one of several teams kicking Furcal’s figurative tires
That’s it.
So how do we get this from Urban:
All of the above makes it clear that A’s general manager Billy Beane has run out of patience with Bobby Crosby
… leading to this from Nico:
Bobby Crosby has essentially been told that [his career is in jeopardy with his current team]
Precision, please. Mychael, if you have actual inside dope about Beane’s mindset, please share it. And Nico, you should probably know better than to interpolate on Urban’s speculation.
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 9:28 AM PST
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Nico posting under the guise of Blez?
I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.
by franks a lot on
Nov 21, 2008 9:38 AM PST
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Nico's goat is powerful.
I know that's a pisser, baby.
by Blicks on
Nov 21, 2008 9:40 AM PST
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Hunh. How did I do that?
Well, heck, apologies to Nico. Bad monkey.
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 10:03 AM PST
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Very, very bad monkey!
Naughty monkey…Is it hot in here or is it just me?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 21, 2008 10:51 AM PST
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Found you a frisky one, Nico, and all ya gotta do ...
… is go to the Athol of Idaho to retrieve it.
The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
by The Dogfather on
Nov 21, 2008 5:27 PM PST
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"Mountain goat charges N. Idaho home"?
OK, that’s when you know the subprime market has really relaxed its standards.
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 5:34 PM PST
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Price glut in Athol.
Chocolate Truffle
by Ice Cream on
Nov 21, 2008 10:02 PM PST
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Athol, Idaho
It’s a few hours north of here. I always laugh at the possibilities for local business names. The guys who drill the water wells: Athol Drillers. The folks who dry-clean your sport coat: Athol Cleaners.
It’s a really fun game.
"I'm going to take a camera crew and march into Billy Beane's office and demand to know why instituting his newfangled cost-saving measures means that the run manufacturing plant had to get shut down." FJM
by Elvez on
Nov 21, 2008 5:45 PM PST
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it'd be neat if it was in Fugard County
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 5:49 PM PST
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Not too far from Montana, home of the fabulous
![]()
The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
by The Dogfather on
Nov 21, 2008 6:01 PM PST
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There's an Athol Street in Oakland
I think it’s somewhere around Adams Point. I used to know a guy who lived on that street.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on
Nov 21, 2008 7:32 PM PST
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It's just off the south side of Lake Merritt
I used to live on Hanover Ave and I walked down part of Athol Ave to get to the tennis courts near Lakeshore & E18th. Adams Point is on the north side of Lake Merritt.
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
by Monday Fan on
Nov 23, 2008 6:42 PM PST
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Hmm
Edgar Renteria and Orlando Cabrera are BIG no-nos. Those are called Brian Sabean moves. I’d rather keep Crosby at 5MM than see either of those guys on a multi-year deal. I know I’ve changed my SS stance way too many times its not even funny.
If the A’s are going to bring in a shortstop, it either has to be Furcal (no 4yr deals plz though), a defense-only guy (IDK?) or a young guy (Hardy? Jumping into a Peavy-Braves trade and snatching up Escobar? A reclamation young guy like Lillibridge?—- The A’s traded for Holliday, so unless the extension is already in the works, a reclamation project might not necessarily be a good idea.).
I know that's a pisser, baby.
by Blicks on
Nov 21, 2008 9:38 AM PST
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Izturis Express baby
I’m riding that one until my fare runs out. And then, I’ll never get off
Save Rajai Davis
by oakinboston on
Nov 21, 2008 9:47 AM PST
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Izturis' career 67 OPS+ isn't exactly inspiring, and nearly all of that has been in the NL
I know he’s good defensively, but I don’t think he’s good enough to be much of an upgrade over Crosby (if at all). It’s exchanging crap for crap.
by thejd44 on
Nov 21, 2008 10:20 AM PST
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There’s no time here. The A’s have to put a patch on the shortstop situation. Perhaps if they wanted to have time to try out a bunch of fellows at shortstop and eventually find someone who can equal the production of a Renteria or a Cabrera, they shouldn’t have mortgaged the future for a single season of Matt Holliday.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 11:14 AM PST
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wow.
Really? The A’s have “mortaged their future”??
Sheesh.
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on
Nov 21, 2008 2:16 PM PST
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Maybe not a very large mortgage... there's still some money left in the home-equity credit line...
Nonetheless, the point still holds.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 4:58 PM PST
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OMG!!! THE A'S HAVE TAKEN OUT A SMALL HOME EQUITY LOAN ON THEIR FUTURE TO RE-DO THE BATHROOMS!!11!1!
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 5:01 PM PST
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No more peeing in a trough?
Hot dogs, get your hot dogs.
by jjham15 on
Nov 21, 2008 7:13 PM PST
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yeah but we're subprime, and our mortgage is being packaged into a CDO by cows!
Save Rajai Davis
by oakinboston on
Nov 22, 2008 5:47 AM PST
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depends on how many years are involved ...
they’re decent enough players … if you could get them for two years, they could be an acceptable stopgap …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on
Nov 21, 2008 4:55 PM PST
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22 HR in his first 545 ABs
and 33 in the next 1,596. In some mysterious way, all of his power disappeared.
I would rather have Gregorio Petit be our opening-day shortstop next year than Bobby Crosby.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on
Nov 21, 2008 9:52 AM PST
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reading between the lines, I suppose that's possible
Certainly fits with my own unfounded and irresponsible speculation regarding the other legacy half the left-side infield.
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 10:02 AM PST
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I don't mean to imply it's *that*
although I don’t mean to imply that it isn’t, either…could be that one of his many injuries or some combination of them have permanently taken away that power.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on
Nov 21, 2008 10:20 AM PST
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We think alike
Although it’s possible that injuries have sapped him of his power or his original power was just kind of flukey.
by thejd44 on
Nov 21, 2008 10:21 AM PST
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Bobby Bashing a little Overblown.
I personally don’t buy the whole “Beane has totally lost patience with Crosby (hurls chair at Crosby likeness) and that’s why he’s looking into getting Furcal.” To me, the interest in Furcal is purely a matter of circumstance. The A’s happen to have a nice chunk of change available for free agents this winter, and shortstop happens to be the only position on the diamond where there isn’t a proven big-league contributor signed for 2009 or young player in need of big league development at-bats. It’s natural that with that combination of factors (no real impact shortstop prospects in the high minors, money to spend on free agents, need to boost offense) the A’s are looking into Furcal.
I would bet that if the A’s were unable to trade for Holliday, we would be hearing a lot more about Pat Burrell or Adam Dunn right now and how Beane has “lost confidence” in Travis Buck/Carlos Gonzalez and that he’s looking for an immediate upgrade in the outfield. Or, if the team didn’t have any money to spend, we wouldn’t hear anything at all on the free agent front, rather, we’d all just see quotes from Beane/Forst saying “we’re staying the course and have confidence in our roster and are building for the future.”
That being said, there’s no question that Crosby hasn’t lived up to our expectations or the organization’s. But then again, either has Eric Chavez in the years since he signed his 6-year extension. But for right now, with money to spend for once in the free agent market and a premier player available without draft-pick compensation, it just makes sense for the A’s to look into the Furcal possibility, and I think that has more to do with the unique financial position the A’s are in rather than the organization’s complete and utter vexation over Bobby Crosby.
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
by Taj Adib on
Nov 21, 2008 9:57 AM PST
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Re your statement
“if the A’s were unable to trade for Holliday, we would be hearing a lot more about Pat Burrell or Adam Dunn right now and how Beane has "lost confidence" in Travis Buck/Carlos Gonzalez.”
Not so. Travis Buck and Carlos Gonzalez haven’t sucked for five years.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on
Nov 21, 2008 10:01 AM PST
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It's very unlikely that the A's are going to give up a draft pick on a free agent
That’s precisely why Furcal and Giambi make sense. They cost only MONEY. There is no opportunity cost associated with signing either player.
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on
Nov 21, 2008 2:19 PM PST
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[Insert my repetitive "please stop mentioning Giambi, he makes no sense at all" post here]
Giambi costs more than money, he costs development of Daric Barton.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on
Nov 21, 2008 2:24 PM PST
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Why couldn't that development happen in AAA?
Especially if you’re one of those folks who’d like to try Barton at 3B.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 2:34 PM PST
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{stops bandwagon; backs up over grover; throws bandwagon back into first gear; runs over grover again}
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 2:40 PM PST
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Speaking of "going over things"
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 3:25 PM PST
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I'm not
And because I think the problem is Barton’s adjustment to MLB pitching. He did great in September 2007, the league adjusted. It looks like he’s adjusted back in September 2008.
I have no desire to “see” Giambi “play” 1B, and am not all that convinced his hitting will be anything to write home about.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on
Nov 21, 2008 2:51 PM PST
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Well, unless you buy tickets to the games
you won’t be able to “see” the A’s anyways, so why worry?
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 3:08 PM PST
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I guess I wasn't obvious enough... I thought doing the quotes on see was sufficiently off base
And, for what it’s worth, I’m back in the bay area now so I’ll get to go to A’s games starting next season.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on
Nov 21, 2008 3:26 PM PST
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I was just being vicious about the A's never being on TV
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 6:36 PM PST
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You could "see" them on "TV" as well, though.
Also, “why” are we using “quotes” for no apparent “reason”
by mikev on
Nov 21, 2008 4:48 PM PST
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"Read" the "DLD"
If I don't comment on your comment how will you know you are completely wrong? -Rocktopus
by pam5981 on
Nov 21, 2008 4:49 PM PST
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Didn't we just go over this?
The quote thing, I mean. Not Giambi. Although we just went over Giambi too, come to think of it.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 3:23 PM PST
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Yes, which is why I did it.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on
Nov 21, 2008 3:25 PM PST
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"Said" the "Blind" man
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on
Nov 22, 2008 1:44 PM PST
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Couldn't it also be
that Sep07 & Sep08 had weaker pitching due to call ups?
In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!
by DMOAS on
Nov 21, 2008 3:45 PM PST
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part of me wonders if those good Septembers
are the results of Barton facing fatigued pitchers and AAA call-ups in September, rather than him just adjusting.
"This is Rickey, calling on behalf of Rickey."
by scatterbrian on
Nov 21, 2008 3:56 PM PST
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If that was true, wouldn't everyone's September numbers jump dramatically?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on
Nov 22, 2008 1:44 PM PST
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I'd expect G to primarily play DH ...
with his PT coming mostly at the expense of of Sweeney/Buck, with Cust mostly playing OF …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on
Nov 21, 2008 4:54 PM PST
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That doesn't sound good. Why not instead of Barton?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Nov 21, 2008 5:32 PM PST
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The difference between Barton and G at 1b ...
isn’t that much smaller than the loss of D in the outfield … and I expect Barton to hit quite a bit better than Swuckey in ‘09 … if he doesn’t step it up, they can always go the other way a couple months in …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on
Nov 22, 2008 12:31 PM PST
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So you're shafting Cunningham/Buck/Sweeney instead of Barton
And this is better why?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on
Nov 22, 2008 1:45 PM PST
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I think Barton is better than Cunnuckney ...
They’ll all get PT. I’d initially favor Barton, but if the players write a different lineup, I’d certainly go with it …
That said, I don’t think G represents enough of an upgrade (once defense is considered) to be worth it …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on
Nov 22, 2008 2:43 PM PST
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Why not just play the ones who whine the most?
Or “let the players write the lineup” by pre-writing the lineup for every game in March and then telling players to work hard and produce.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 22, 2008 5:00 PM PST
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who are you playing in CF?
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 5:35 PM PST
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Sweeney/Buck, one presumes...
Incidentally, that’s an atrocious defensive outfield.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 5:52 PM PST
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but devo said Giambi's PT comes at the expense of Swuckey
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 6:05 PM PST
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Right now, one is projected to start in CF and the other in RF
Put Cust in the outfield and you have Holliday in RF and one of those two in CF, the other on the bench.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 6:14 PM PST
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Yeah, what PT said ...
I think the loss on defense would be offset by the improvement in offense … probably … but not definitely … which is why bringing G back doesn’t really make sense to me …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on
Nov 22, 2008 12:28 PM PST
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Right...
although it has nothing to do with what I said. I’m aware of why Furcal is attractive, and I didn’t even need to see the word “money” in CAPS to understand it.
Crosby is done here regardless of whether or not we get Furcal, and it’s because he’s sucked for a remarkably long period of time. The only way he’ll be on the team next year is if nobody else will take him, and if he is, Cliff Pennington will be given every chance to take his job.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on
Nov 22, 2008 10:12 PM PST
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Correct...
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 11:16 AM PST
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It's not a motivational move
Because the guy is worthless and the only thing he can be motivated to do is be more pathetic.
You could put a goat at SS with Nico guiding it and get more production and better defense
by Trainman on
Nov 21, 2008 9:58 AM PST
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That's actually been proven true
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 21, 2008 10:52 AM PST
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Do not bring him back
Tell the Blue Jays they can have him and name their price. If they’re not interested, release him. As for a change of scenery helping him, maybe. If there’s a team with a coach/manager who has the nads to tell him, “Move up to the plate or you’ll never get in a game for this team. How do you expect to cover the outside of the plate standing way out there?”
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
by Monday Fan on
Nov 21, 2008 10:00 AM PST
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I really don't want to see Renteria either
We just solve it by spending 40-50 mil on Furcal.
by Trainman on
Nov 21, 2008 10:00 AM PST
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Same - I'm not sure I want the A's to underpay to get Renteria
Even though his name makes it sound like he’d give you the runs.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 21, 2008 10:53 AM PST
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where does Renteria stand in terms of The Runs Above Replacement Player?
"This is Rickey, calling on behalf of Rickey."
by scatterbrian on
Nov 21, 2008 11:03 AM PST
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He's roughly league average
Better bat than the average shortstop, worse defense.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 11:17 AM PST
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I heard
that Renteria has been working out pretty hard this off season…doesnt mean much but it could mean that maybe his defense recovers from the 08 status. Just an A’s fan here thinking that Furcal will slip through our fingertips and we will end up with Renteria and trying to see the full side of the renteria glass
by yawedout21 on
Nov 21, 2008 11:29 AM PST
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That's a nice thought
He was, at one time, a very good player. Maybe he can catch one more season of success and do it in the green and gold.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 21, 2008 12:49 PM PST
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well considering the crappy offense
I’m all for acquiring a shortstop who can provide the runs
"This is Rickey, calling on behalf of Rickey."
by scatterbrian on
Nov 21, 2008 12:27 PM PST
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that makes him slightly below average in my book
Defense has so many more fringe benefits. Taking runs off our pitchers ERAs has a lot more long term value than tacking on runs/RBIs to our offensive players’ stats.
by MrIncognito on
Nov 21, 2008 5:37 PM PST
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Uh ... no ...
a run is pretty much a run …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on
Nov 22, 2008 12:31 PM PST
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Yes and no.
More hits and runs given up -—> more pitches thrown -—> more pitchers used in game -—→ less bullpen depth
And, it makes your pitchers look better, which inflates their trade value.
Yes, a run is a run, but a run saved is worth a bit more than a run scored.
I know that's a pisser, baby.
by Blicks on
Nov 22, 2008 1:22 PM PST
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More hits and runs scored = more pitches thrown by opposition = more pitchers used in game = more PAs against lesser pitchers...
I mean, yeah, okay, technically you’re right, preventing a run is probably every so slightly more valuable than scoring a run, over the course of the full season or more, but I have to imagine the difference is very, very slight …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on
Nov 22, 2008 2:46 PM PST
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There’s no way we land a player like Cardenas for Blanton without the defense we had behind him. That’s a huge advantage for the A’s.
by MrIncognito on
Nov 24, 2008 5:42 PM PST
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See, I thought his name sounded like a store that sold cheesy musicals that I can't stand
au contra ire
by JediLeroy on
Nov 21, 2008 6:40 PM PST
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Sold? Not leased?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 6:44 PM PST
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Can't Billy still bring Crosby back if he wants, saying
“He was good enough for us before, and he’s good enough for us now”?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 21, 2008 10:49 AM PST
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Only as long as he's willing to lie to himself.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 11:01 AM PST
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Crosby, though bad, isn't worse than many non-Furcal SS options
Perhaps our standards are just too high on this one.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on
Nov 21, 2008 1:09 PM PST
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That depends on a lot of things
If you take the Fielding Bible seriously, Crosby’s glove was 24 runs worse than Izturis. As the two SS in question posted an almost identical EQA (Crosby by a couple points) it is safe to say that Crosby was approximately 2 Wins worse then Izturis.
Project 2009 from there.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 1:46 PM PST
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It wasn't only the Fielding Bible
or even the BIS based metrics, ie Fielding Bible and RZR. Zone Rating had Crosby as pretty bad to.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Nov 21, 2008 1:48 PM PST
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ZR had Crosby as around average
+1.57 according to Dial.
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on
Nov 21, 2008 1:56 PM PST
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Hmm, OK
Didn’t realise that average zone ratings for SS were this low.
In any case, Crosby’s zone rating in 2008 was the lowest in his career.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Nov 21, 2008 2:39 PM PST
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yeah, his numbers all got worse, but they didn't get so much worse
that I would necessarily want to conclude that he’s actually worse to any significant extent now going forward, especially since there’s not a particularly good reason for his defense to have declined.
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on
Nov 21, 2008 2:42 PM PST
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Of course there's not a particularly good reason
for his hitting to suck so bad, and yet…
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 21, 2008 7:25 PM PST
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Check out average ZRs for third base...
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 3:23 PM PST
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Also, pmr, which is BIS data had Crosby +8.5
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on
Nov 21, 2008 2:40 PM PST
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were those 1-year "downturns," or the tail end of a 3/4-year pattern?
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 2:41 PM PST
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ZR:
870
867
855
870
826
RZR
852
875
808
834
816
pmr (out/expected outs)
102.41
98.66
99.75
102.74
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on
Nov 21, 2008 2:56 PM PST
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so, what's your take: bad year, or noise?
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 3:04 PM PST
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I'd probably say a little of both
but I have no idea….
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on
Nov 21, 2008 3:11 PM PST
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also, I don't know what the +/- or UZR are for these years
but my impression is that UZR would show a decline along the lines of what ZR has and +/- has him as bad for 2008.
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on
Nov 21, 2008 3:05 PM PST
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Purely from recollection,
with no statistics to back it up, it seemed he made a bunch of errors at the beginning of the year. I also seem to recall a lot of them being throwing errors. Rust from the lack of playing time over the past few years?
by sslinger on
Nov 21, 2008 4:39 PM PST
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you're on to something there
I mean, Crosby been put behind the eight ball in a few respects. He had Tejada’s huge cleats to fill, not just as fan-fave and former MVP, but Crosby was the reason the A’s chose to keep Chavy long-term over Miggy. Part of that was based on his flukey season in Sacramento, which was incorrectly deemed a breakout season. He hit .308/.395/.544 with a ridiculous .363 BABIP, which adjusts to roughly .243/.330/.479. Even Baseball America said:
Meet the man who makes Miguel Tejada expendable. Crosby’s capable defensively, hits well, and is actually fairly reminiscent of Tejada at the same age. With Tejada off to Baltimore, Crosby’s ready to step in and contribute at a reasonable level immediately. He’ll hit for some average, moderate power, and draw a few more walks than Tejada. Crosby’s a quality ballplayer, and can contribute on a potential championship club. Offensively, his peak should look something like .300/.380/.520 in a neutral park.
He won Rookie of the Year against some pretty weak competition. Then to add a pressurized cherry on top, Peter Gammons predicted Crosby would win the AL MVP in 2006, and a few national guys like Buster Olney jumped on the Crosby bandwagon.
Unfortunately Crosby just wasn’t as good as most people thought he’d be.
"This is Rickey, calling on behalf of Rickey."
by scatterbrian on
Nov 21, 2008 4:20 PM PST
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Cesar Izturis vs. Edgar Renteria
In the extremely possible event that the A’s can’t/won’t sign Furcal they still need to replace Bobby Crosby. I believe Crosby has more ability than he’s shown, but that ability will not blossom in Oakland. He needs a change of scenery and a change in perspective to truly develop further.
Plus I loath the guy.
Replacing Crosby can be done one of two ways. Sign a FA or trade for a new SS. Seeing how Beane has traded Gaudin, Harden, Blanton, Haren, Smith, Gonzalez and Street within the last year and hasn’t picked up a single SS prospect in the process, it might make sense to discuss the FA possibilities first. If the A’s can’t land Furcal the next two guys on the SS list are Izturis and Renteria.
I’ll end the suspense for you, I say sign Izturis. (Shocking, I know.)
Let’s say you have the option to sign either player to a 2 year deal plus a team option 3rd year.
You’d be getting Izturis’ 28/29/30 age seasons vs. Renteria’s 33/34/35 seasons.
Izturis will probably cost you half as much annually as Renteria.
PT did some fine work last week but I think he undersold Izturis a bit. Hardballtimes’ RZR ranked Izturis as the 2nd best defensive SS in 2008 and Bill James had him tied for 3rd best in saving runs during the season. (Sorry, no links to James, it’s a pay site & I’m not giving up my password to the masses.) Based on that, I think you could argue that Izturis’ 2009 projection should be a +15 on defense, making him equal in effectiveness to the projection made for Renteria.
Cesar Izturis is a younger player offering equivalent overall production at half the price. I understand wanting to have a 3rd or even 4th option before signing Izturis but signing Renteria would be a mistake.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 11:00 AM PST
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+15 defense at shortstop means you're claiming he's virtually an equivalent defender to Mark Ellis at a harder position
I call bullshit. He’s got a good glove, but he isn’t frigging Ozzie Smith.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 11:23 AM PST
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Well, not exactly
James had 2008 Ellis at +26, so your sense of unrepentant love for his glove isn’t threatened. In fact, your purposely conservative +15 for Ellis may be a bit too conservative.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 11:34 AM PST
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I have an idea.
Let’s sign Ozzie Smith! :)
by VORP is too nerdy on
Nov 21, 2008 11:35 AM PST
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Let me put it another way...
If you felt confident enough to give Ellis a +20 score on defense, would you really have a hard time believing Izturis = +15?
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 11:36 AM PST
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I suppose
I guess I’m just a stronger believer in regression to the mean…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 11:45 AM PST
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I understand that, but there are mitigating circumstances here
Izturis was hurt (arm) in 2006 and spent most of 2007 rehabbing the injury. Defensive metrics have improved by leaps and bounds since 2005 so it’s hard to say exactly what kind of regression we could be looking at for Izturis in the future.
And if you’re really worried about regression, to the mean or otherwise, Renteria seems to be the more likely candidate to fall.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 11:51 AM PST
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BTW, check your e-mail
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 12:38 PM PST
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Ooh - penile enhancement for just $9.99!
Thanks!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 21, 2008 12:50 PM PST
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You're welcome
It was tough finding a goat-safe enhancement product for under $15 bucks a pop.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 1:05 PM PST
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maaaaaaaa.org has some pretty amazing prices, huh?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 21, 2008 7:27 PM PST
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"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL
by oblique on
Nov 21, 2008 8:08 PM PST
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Here's a goat-related enhancement product for less than $10

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
by Nick on
Nov 21, 2008 8:10 PM PST
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That's because
you have at least a cursory understanding of basic statistics.
Chone’s projections (as you probably already know) have Crosby at +3 and Izturis at +7, so even your original estimates are generous toward Izturis. The fact that it takes some further cherry-picking to make him even 1 win better than Crosby overall indicates how terrible an idea it would be to sign him.
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
by andeux on
Nov 21, 2008 1:08 PM PST
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Further cherry picking?
I realize that the different metrics all have their inherent weaknesses and far be it from me to say which one is definitevly superior to the others, but c’mon. HardballTimes and the Fielding Bible aren’t exactly poor sources of information.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 1:19 PM PST
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So?
You’ve found two data points that support your position, and ignored or dismissed the ones that don’t. That’s what cherry picking is, and it has nothing to do with the relative merits of those data points.
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
by andeux on
Nov 21, 2008 1:26 PM PST
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The other data points have already been discussed
These two hadn’t. The fact that they rate Izturis so highly does make me wonder if we could bump PT’s estimate on Izturis’ glove.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 1:37 PM PST
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Chone's projections are based on 4 year samples.
The main thing here, is, why are Crosby’s defensive numbers so bad this season? A genuine, and chronic, deterioration in ability? A problem with the metrics? Bad luck?
Although, Crosby’ zone rating has been pretty much progressively deteriorating year by year.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Nov 21, 2008 1:57 PM PST
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"Plus I loath the guy."
This, I think, is the problem. Yes, Crosby is frustrating. Yes, I’d love to have Furcal at non-extortion prices. No, I don’t want to spend a ton of money on a minor/not-really-at-all upgrade just so we have a different SS to loath.
And trust me, you’d loath Izturis soon enough.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on
Nov 21, 2008 1:15 PM PST
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I'm just trying to be objective while acknowledging a personal bias
Crosby needs to go, and not just to appease me.
Gambling on Petit or Pennington to be a big league caliber SS in 2009 seems a stretch. The top 2 FA choices after Furcal are Renteria and Izturis.
Renteria’s supposed to be looking for an $8-10 million annual deal, depending on how high Furcal drives up the market. I think Izturis will cost half that. That’s not big money, relatively speaking.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 1:27 PM PST
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But how much of an improvement are we getting (keeping in mind getting rid of Crosby likely means eating his salary too)?
I’m not convinced that Izturis is a significantly better option. I’m fairly convinced Renteria is nowhere near enough of an improvement for that salary.
I’m sure Furcal is a significant improvement. (Ditto JJ, Yunel)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on
Nov 21, 2008 2:05 PM PST
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Again, it depends on what info you choose to base your projections on
I’m not going to try to tell you which projection system is superior, I. Don’t. Know.
But, we can say the following with certainty. In 2008 Bobby Crosby produced a slightly higher (I don’t recall the exact number, but within 5 points) EQA. If you want to talk OPS, Crosby again wins BUT Izturis posted the higher OBP… he made fewer outs vs. Crosby’s superior slugging.
Defensively, according to the +/- system, Izturis was 24 runs better than Crosby. Crosby was supposed to be healthy but we have a near 2.5 Win difference based on their defensive play. Round down because of Crosby’s early rust and admittedly less-putrid offense and Izturis was roughly 2 Wins better than Crosby in 2008.
Izturis was hurt in 2006 and re-habbing in 2007, skewing his numbers. How much weight do you choose to place on the 2008 data?
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 2:44 PM PST
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sigh
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
by andeux on
Nov 21, 2008 2:46 PM PST
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What is it now?
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 2:55 PM PST
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Same as it ever was
One (unreliable, noisy stat) says Izturis was 24 runs better than Crosby defensively. Another (also unreliable and noisy) stat (ZR) says he was 3 runs better. And of course, as usual, you take the first one and present it as gospel truth.
And then you compound that error by treating that number as a projection for next year. Even if that were the only measure we had of what happened in 2008 (and, again, it isn’t), in order to turn it into a projection for next year it needs to be regressed by a large amount toward 0, because empirically year-to-year correlations in these stats are not very large (or equivalently, one year measurements are not in the least bit reliable).
Same as it ever was.
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
by andeux on
Nov 21, 2008 3:16 PM PST
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That's not how the song goes
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 3:26 PM PST
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Which unreliable and noisy stat would you prefer to use?
’Cause I checked, PMR, Dial, RZR, and +/- and guess what… they ALL ranked Izturis higher than Crosby. Now we can argue all you want over which system provides the most accurate answer, but the final answer will forever be that in 2008 Izturis was the better defender according to the defensive metrics.
Furthermore, I did not use the Fielding Bible data as a projection. Go back and re-read my initial post. I asked if the data which PT did not have access to would be persuasive enough to argue that Izturis’ projection should be +15. I didn’t make any declarations, I asked a question. Low and behold, PT said maybe.
Because as is, the argument between signing Izturis vs. Renteria has several considerations. If the overall projected performance data is close then the chips fall decidedly in Izturis’ favor. I understand not wanting to use 1 year’s worth of data to make a projection. I get that. But on a more basic level Izturis and Crosby had their 2006 and 2007 seasons disrupted by injury/lack of playing time. The data from those years is questionable because it is reasonable to assume that an injured player is not performing to the best of his abilities.
You may not like what I’m saying, but the only thing I’ve said that is factually untrue is that Crosby had the higher EQA. I looked at the numbers again, Izturis finished 1 point ahead of Crosby in 2008. My bad.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 3:54 PM PST
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they're not all unreliable and noisy
Only the +24 was. That was his objection.
The other stats were not noisy – they were all within fairly close range of each other.
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on
Nov 21, 2008 4:08 PM PST
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No
my objection is that all defensive stats are unreliable and noisy.
A projection based on several years of several of those stats, regressed appropriately, like what Chone does, is at least a little bit useful. But something based on just one year of one of those stats is not.
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
by andeux on
Nov 21, 2008 4:34 PM PST
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The fact that
you managed to browbeat PT into a reluctant “maybe” does not impress me. Nor do your continued rhetorical games of subtly altering the issue under debate, even if you managed to avoid saying anything “factually incorrect” when doing so.
Since the entirety of Izturis’ supposed edge over Crosby lies in defensive value, it’s pretty important whether that edge is 3 runs or 20+ runs. And you’ve latched onto the one stat, out of many, for the one year, out of many that has it at that upper end while repeatedly downplaying the importance of all the other evidence that indicates the gap is much smaller.
Given everything we know, it’s simply not reasonable to expect Izturis to be a 2 win upgrade over Crosby. Even 1 win is a stretch. Which means that, even if the marginal cost is small (5 millionish) the team can probably find somewhere else to spend that money that will help more. If the question is really “Izturis or Renteria?” my vote is for neither.
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
by andeux on
Nov 21, 2008 4:25 PM PST
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I stand by my original projection, which has Crosby at 5 runs worse than Izturis
That’s enough to snag Izturis on a cheap flier, but it’s not worth paying any kind of real money to obtain him. I would rather, and it galls me to say this, sign Orlando Cabrera.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 4:49 PM PST
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But you know that's a loser proposition, same as Renteria.
Hell, go ahead and call Izturis a loser play as well! At least he doesn’t cost as much as the others.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 5:58 PM PST
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Of course it's a loser proposition!
I think the whole scenario is a damned loser proposition. I’m not the one who was prancing around singing happy songs of contention when the Holliday trade was announced (note: not saying you were, either). I’m trying to play the hand we’ve been dealt here.
Bottom line, the A’s are probably still going to need a shortstop in 2010, and having one of those guys lying around being overpaid to be average is hardly fatal to the team. A three year deal would be something of a problem, but I’m not sure that’s really on the table here.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 6:32 PM PST
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3 years for Cabrera a near lock
The optimist… maybe it’s the pessimist… (can’t really tell anymore) in me is thinking 2 plus option for Renteria and Izturis.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 6:38 PM PST
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That's the optimist, grover
The pessimist is that he gets like 4 years.
I know that's a pisser, baby.
by Blicks on
Nov 22, 2008 1:33 PM PST
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he == cabrera
I know that's a pisser, baby.
by Blicks on
Nov 22, 2008 1:34 PM PST
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If your vote is neither, that's fine
I browbeat PT?
I mean, yeah I played to his fancy for Ellis but “browbeat” sounds so cop-in-the-backroom-with-a-telephone book violent.
You’re right, it does matter if the difference is 3 runs or 20 runs and I find it amusing, given your previous statement re: defensive metrics, that you so strongly complain about the defensive metric that is backed by video scouting for each play. The +/- system uses metrics and the Mark-1 eyeball to score a defensive player. If anything, the +/- system is the one out of all of them that should appeal to you.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 5:10 PM PST
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I'm absolutely out of my depth on the technical details of D metrics ...
… but andeux isn’t saying that the one you favored was a poor one; rather, he’s saying that it’s merely one (perhaps noisy, perhaps not) among a myriad of other perhaps noisy metrics, all of which require multi-year samples to be relevant.
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 5:23 PM PST
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I realize that
And what I’m saying is that if the A’s can’t land Furcal and you don’t want to trade for a new, quality SS and you agree that keeping Crosby on for one more year is pointless then you have to look elsewhere! Multi-year samples for Crosby and Izturis are problematic, the best data we have access to comes from 2008.
So you pays your dues and take your chances.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 5:57 PM PST
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granted, that's not a huge risk ...
… but it seems like an awfully low reward, even in proportion to the risk and the expense.
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 6:06 PM PST
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If, by some strange trick of the universe,
Izturis or any other SS is a 2 win improvement over Crosby and signing them doesn’t break the bank then the reward is good enough.
6 wins from Holliday, 2 wins from the new SS and add 1 SP worth 2 wins and you’ve turned a 75 win team into an 85 win team without any of the remaining players improving their performance from 2008. (I mean, they can’t possibly play worse, can they?) If some of the guys already on the roster get better in 2009, or at least the overall production from the rest of the roster improves…
Contender.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 6:19 PM PST
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Izturis is not likely to be close to a 2-win improvement
It’s about as likely that Crosby himself would improve by two wins. Renteria and Cabrera maybe wouldn’t “break the bank” but they’ll get a lot more than they’re worth, and there would probably be a lot of better ways to spend money than giving it to those two.
I hope we get Furcal…
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on
Nov 21, 2008 7:37 PM PST
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Giants are apparently "in negotiations" with Renteria
Perhaps a sign that Furcal is Oakland-bound.
by mikev on
Nov 21, 2008 7:40 PM PST
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That would make me happy
I’m on the Furcal love-train.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 21, 2008 7:41 PM PST
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Ok
I feel pretty comfortable saying that 2.5 wins is the best case improvement moving from Crosby to Izturis (it won’t be more, it might well be less).
Between their salaries we’d be paying around $10M to do it.
I’d much rather spend that $10M on, say, Randy Johnson.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on
Nov 21, 2008 2:56 PM PST
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So would I
But the real math is actually:
$10 million for Unit
$5 million on Crosby regardless of signing Johnson, cause he’s already signed.
$5 million on Izturis (estimated in multiples of 5)
You’ve got at least $15 million committed one way or the other.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 3:01 PM PST
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That's true
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on
Nov 21, 2008 3:27 PM PST
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I'm not sure it's true
Adding a SS allows the A’s to trade Crosby. I believe Crosby’s value is too low to yield a very good player, but high enough that a team will take his salary in order to acquire him for essentially nothing (but his salary). I don’t think Croz’ trade value is all that high but I think it’s reasonable to think the A’s might be able to shed his salary.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 21, 2008 7:33 PM PST
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Agreed
I think they could get rid of him for a crappy player or two along the lines of the Scutaro deal with the other team picking most or all of the salary. Baltimore has been mentioned and their SS predicament is so appalling that that might even be a decent idea for them.
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on
Nov 21, 2008 7:39 PM PST
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Add to that the very real possibility
that Crosby could perform better elsewhere than he ever will with the A’s and it’s not a bad pickup for Baltimore or whomever has no better options in house.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 21, 2008 7:41 PM PST
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the problem is grover's poor spelling?
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 2:42 PM PST
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There's an "e" in loathe
I guess I used all my “E” up last night…
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 2:45 PM PST
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Wasn't my point, but I couldn't resist spelling it wrong in my comment.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on
Nov 21, 2008 2:56 PM PST
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That's OK, I didn't notice until monkeyball pointed it out
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 3:02 PM PST
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Was Urban actually quoting Billy with the "lost patience" thing?
It just doesn’t seem like something Beane would bring out in public – although it could be assumed by everyone on the planet.
by the_rozeboom on
Nov 21, 2008 11:07 AM PST
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no, as I said above, he's making it up
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 11:24 AM PST
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Crosby is done
In my opinion he is done…Look when there are stories on the A’s website about the A’s possible interest in Furcal or other shortstops that is when, I would like to think anyways, you know someone is done. I just cant see Crosby coming back after all of these things floating around out there about Crosby/New A’s SS. Crosby has to know that the A’s are actively trying to replace him. If your boss let it leak to multiple people that they were interested in multiple options to replace you and basically have made it clear who they really want, and that person is not you, dont you think that you would either A quit B ask them to get rid of you so you can get your pay for a couple weeks and unemployment, C) at the very least fear for your job. Okay scratch the first two because in todays economy I doubt any of us are to eager to go looking for new work. Regardless this cant sit well with Bobby.
by yawedout21 on
Nov 21, 2008 11:34 AM PST
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To be fair
Beane has not linked any info regarding Furcal. It started as speculation and then Furcal’s agent has said multiple times that the A’s are interested.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on
Nov 21, 2008 12:48 PM PST
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*Beane has not leaked any info*
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on
Nov 21, 2008 12:48 PM PST
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Clearly the A's have not tried to keep secret
their pursuit of a new SS for 2009. Whether they have leaked anything or not, they have not made great efforts to hide this fact from the American people. IMO, Crosby is done with Oakland whether or not the A’s sign Furcal. But I doubt he will “quit” – players rarely just up and quit in their 20s!
Someone will want Crosby – he’s young, he plays an important position, and he has some physical talent. He’ll have a job. Emil fricking Brown keeps getting work and he’s a bad player, in his mid 30s, who plays a corner position (badly).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 21, 2008 12:54 PM PST
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red sox want rid of
julio lugo, it’d seem. and are willing to swap him for dontrelle willis??
so a’s could sign an ageing, expensive player.
hey, it’s worked well for the giants, huh
BB should send scouts to watch cricket players.
by alea iacta est on
Nov 21, 2008 1:04 PM PST
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*now* I can criticize you legitimately!
We don’t know for sure that the A’s are actually aggressively pursuing him. It could all be spin/misinformation from Furcal’s agent, trying to drive the price up.
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 1:10 PM PST
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Especially since we know the A's haven't made an offer
Calling to ask about his price is simply good GM-ing.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on
Nov 21, 2008 1:16 PM PST
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um
i was making a joke. i hadn’t even heard that the a’s were even remotely interested, tbh.
i thought i was interesting that the red sox rated willis that much / lugo that little, plus
i wanted to laugh at the giants for signing overpriced old guys.
BB should send scouts to watch cricket players.
by alea iacta est on
Nov 21, 2008 1:21 PM PST
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now I can criticize *you* legitimately!
My response was to Nico.
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 2:43 PM PST
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touche
hahah. beer + time = hangover.
BB should send scouts to watch cricket players.
by alea iacta est on
Nov 21, 2008 3:56 PM PST
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It's hard to tell rumor from fact, but there seems to be
a consensus that the A’s will look at Renteria if they don’t land Furcal. And isn’t it acknowledged that the A’s looked at Furcal’s medical reports? I don’t know how close the A’s are to landing, or making an offer to, Furcal, but I think it’s fair to say they’re exploring other SS possibilities this winter.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 21, 2008 7:36 PM PST
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My impression is that that was "one mention" rather than a consensus
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on
Nov 21, 2008 7:40 PM PST
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But it was on the interweb
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 21, 2008 7:41 PM PST
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What on earth do the Giants have to do with two AL teams exchanging awful contracts?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 3:28 PM PST
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How much scrilla does Renteria want anyway?
"I have more questions after these."-WaddellCanseco
by Gaijin_Suketto on
Nov 21, 2008 12:26 PM PST
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Does this make Beane the Phantom
and Bobby Christine?
Save Rajai Davis
by oakinboston on
Nov 21, 2008 1:06 PM PST
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Dang it.
Now that song’s in my head.
by whiteshoes40 on
Nov 21, 2008 4:48 PM PST
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Furcal or Bust
At least with Crosby there is upside. Rentaria, I suppose, if he is cheap, but BLEGH! Crosby could still pan out, its not bloody likely, but I’d be pissed to the the A’s commit to mediocrity at a high price when Crosby at least offers a glimmer of hope that he has been quite good before and that his defense is, at worst, average.
If anyone but Furcal is going to replace him it better be via trade or the farm. O-Cab and E-Rent suck…
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
by ChadGod on
Nov 21, 2008 2:09 PM PST
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I'm in the same camp
If we can get Furcal, great. Otherwise, it’s a small margainal upgrade for a large cost. Given the choice between Crosby and Randy Johnson or Renteria/OCab/Izturis and random 5th starter, I’ll take the former.
by MrIncognito on
Nov 21, 2008 5:44 PM PST
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It's a false dichotomy
The A’s should sign another starter regardless of what they do with shortstop, and they have sufficient cash to do so.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 5:57 PM PST
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Or whereever else you can sign a player for $10 million
Trade for Beltre, whatever.
by MrIncognito on
Nov 21, 2008 5:59 PM PST
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Well, my proffered trade for Beltre, Ryan Sweeney, is now off the table!
Can’t trade him now, the team suddenly starts running OUT of outfielders instead of having too many of them. I’m Chris Denorfia’s #1 fan, but even I’m not drinking the Crack-Aid labeled “Buck, Denorfia and Cunningham are all going to work out positively by 2010.”
I’d love to snag Beltre, but with the in-division thing, Seattle’s change of management and the fact that the guy I wanted to offer for him suddenly looks a lot less expendable, he has to be considered a long shot option at best.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 6:40 PM PST
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Even before factoring all that...
Beane still crushes on Chavez.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 6:42 PM PST
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You may be right
Obviously this is all highly dependent on what next year’s payroll really is. If it’s really $80 million dollars, then there’s probably enough there to help at least a little bit at all of the glaring weaknesses. If it’s much smaller than that, I’m not convinced that the non-Furcal shortstops provide the best bang for the buck.
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
by andeux on
Nov 21, 2008 6:25 PM PST
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I've been assuming $75 million to provide plenty of wiggle room, money for Latin America, etc
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 6:34 PM PST
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I hope you're right
I’m still skeptical
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
by andeux on
Nov 21, 2008 6:37 PM PST
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I think we've all picked up on that
If it makes you fell any better, my preferred Plan B should the A’s not sign Furcal is a trade for Hardy.
And Crosby being traded to a band of pygmy cannibals.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 6:41 PM PST
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For a long pig sandwich?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 6:42 PM PST
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A half dozen Bill the Cat loin clothes will suffice
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 6:44 PM PST
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I'm a bust fan, meself
au contra ire
by JediLeroy on
Nov 21, 2008 6:45 PM PST
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I'd say it's either Furcal or a Petit/Pennington battle
Izturis is going to put up an offensive line that’s very similar to what the Petit/Pennington two-headed monster will do, if not worse. His defense won’t be so much better than that duo so as to justify giving him $5M to their paltry $400K. Not a great use of resources, IMO.
The pursuit of Furcal, even if it doesn’t bear fruit, is helping to already lay the groundwork for discussions about trading Crosby to other teams who need shortstops.
It sounds much better in a trade discussion to say, “We need to unload him because we’re trying very hard to sign Furcal,” than it does to say, “We need to unload him because he’s very sh-tty.”
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on
Nov 21, 2008 2:35 PM PST
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I like this plan
“Pursue” Furcal to drive up his price for whomever does sign him and rise the tide for all other SSs; deal Crosby for something/anything; go cheap and acceptable with P/P; use the savings to sign Dunn/Teixeira/ohokfineextendHollidaytoforestallPaulThomas’sresponse.
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 2:46 PM PST
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+1
It not only sounds like a more Beane-esque plan, but it has the advantage of sounding pragmatic, in that it doesn’t involve the A’s signing big-money free agents.
by el generico on
Nov 21, 2008 2:52 PM PST
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I'm not sure P/P is acceptable
if winning next year is what we’re looking for.
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on
Nov 21, 2008 2:57 PM PST
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I agree
But it’s mitigated slightly by the fact that they’d only have to bat ninth, and that there’s two of them, doubling the shittiness.
If one of them gets a bad case of the yips, or completely flames out, there’s some quality control in the sense that there’s two guys there who figure to perform similarly.
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on
Nov 21, 2008 3:19 PM PST
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The problem is that they don't have to "get the yips" or "completely flame out"
to be terrible hitters… they just have to NOT improve profoundly.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 3:33 PM PST
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yeah, I was referring to their defense with those comments
I’m fully expecting their combined offense to .600-.650 OPSish.
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on
Nov 21, 2008 3:46 PM PST
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Perhaps if the A's get strong enough elsewhere
(sign another hitter, sign another starting pitcher) they can afford to go with a cheap and “average at best” SS and still be good. Shedding Crosby’s salary and replacing it with P/P’s salary would help them be able to sign the hitter and pitcher.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Nov 21, 2008 7:39 PM PST
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It's not
People seem to be failing to grasp the concept that there are situations in which overpaying for old mediocrities makes sense, and this is one of those situations.
I mean, I don’t understand why the A’s have suddenly activated the Crimson Sky plan, but given that they have they’d damn well better come up with something at least marginally better than replacement level at every position. Even if it means overpaying.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 3:36 PM PST
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I'm with ya, brother
Hey, I don’t find Pennington, Petit, OR Crosby acceptable.
Furcal, 50-60 million, four years, no incentives because he won’t have to take that type of deal,, but he doesn’t get a no-trade clause. Make it hap’n cap’n.
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on
Nov 21, 2008 3:49 PM PST
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There's a lot of ways to upgrade the team
As posted above, there’s a few ways to spend the money. Randy Johnson is available, and our rotation is pretty thin, so it’s not like SS is the only position we could possible upgrade.
by MrIncognito on
Nov 21, 2008 5:52 PM PST
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I have a hard time imagining a world where Pennington is an improvement over Crosby
I also believe that a month of “Gregorio Petit, starting SS” will allow me to feel the same way about him.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on
Nov 21, 2008 2:58 PM PST
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as I've said before, I'd be fine with keeping Crosby
Of course, then there doesn’t seem to be any reason at all for Beane to be pursuing Furcal.
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 3:06 PM PST
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Well, Furcal is considerably better
Other options don’t seem to be.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on
Nov 21, 2008 3:28 PM PST
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They might not be better than Crosby
But if Crosby’s jettisoned, at least the team would have an opportunity to find out. All they’d have to do is bat ninth and field the ball cleanly.
As long as Crosby is here, he makes it difficult to play either guy (P & P), because he bitches when he doesn’t play every day.
At least the team would know by the end of ‘09 if either Pennington or Petit could handle the gig long-term, for the remaining five years that they’re under contract.
If either one couldn’t, the team would be forced to trade for an SS at that point, because the SS market is twice as crappy after ’09, headlined by Crosby and Khalil Greene.
Which, again, is why I’d advocate a hard pursuit of Furcal if the team has decided that Petit and Pennington have no prayer of being future ML regular shorstops. The shortstop market looks to be a desolate wasteland during some key contention years for the A’s.
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on
Nov 21, 2008 3:15 PM PST
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my plan would be
go for furcal. overpay if necessary.
if, however, you don’t get him, don’t blow lots of money on a marginal upgrade.
instead, play with crosby (or petit / pennington, depending on your preference) until the middle of the season. A half season of them is not going to be the deciding factor as to whether a’s make or do not make the playoffs. coming up to the trade deadlines, you’re faced with choices, depending on circumstances.
1. you are in contention and crosby (or other), for some reason, has got good continue without changes.
2. you are in contention, SS is still a problem, however. make a trade for a SS from a team that is having a crappy season and wants to rebuild.
3. you are not in contention. well, just as well you didn’t piss too much away. you’ll likely be trading away holliday at this point, anyway, so you can hopefully pick up a decent SS prospect for him.
ok, this is a strategy that has an element of risk to it, but yknow. i could live with a half season of crosby. no?
BB should send scouts to watch cricket players.
by alea iacta est on
Nov 21, 2008 4:10 PM PST
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That plan is entirely reasonable
(and realistic).
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
by andeux on
Nov 21, 2008 4:39 PM PST
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OK, as long as you understand that you're significantly damaging your playoff chances for no obvious reason
If the A’s are 3 games out at the break, and Crosby is his usual sucking black hole of suck, I have a sneaking suspicion that the price of alternatives, like gas the day Katrina hit, is suddenly going to take a climb. Now you’re REALLY screwed, instead of merely somewhat screwed. And you can’t get someone with money, either— you have to implode your farm system to get him.
I would also point out that a half-season of good play from Crosby or Petit or whomever does not indicate that the second half-season will also be good. Regression to the mean works in-season too…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 4:56 PM PST
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right
it’s nothing approaching a perfect option.
plan A is to go for furcal.
i think what i’m suggesting is… don’t throw money away for a marginal upgrade when there could be other options that reveal themselves if you wait a bit. yes. there is risk involved, and the price midseason will be higher, but players who are not available now may well be available then.
BB should send scouts to watch cricket players.
by alea iacta est on
Nov 21, 2008 5:26 PM PST
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The (obvious) reason
is that according to your own analysis no one who’s available except Furcal (or Hardy if you want to give away a lot in trade) rates to be more than a 2 win upgrade. Even if you consider 1-2 wins to be significantly damaging your playoff chances, the resources you want to spend on one of those smaller upgrades (Cabrera/Renteria/Tejada/whoever) could potentially provide more benefit if used elsewhere – the pitching staff is as shallow as it’s been in years, 3B is still something of a question mark, and Barton is now the only real 1B we have above AA. There’s lots of places where a mid-priced free agent could help.
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
by andeux on
Nov 21, 2008 5:43 PM PST
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that
is considerably more coherent than my ramblings.
i am endebted.
BB should send scouts to watch cricket players.
by alea iacta est on
Nov 21, 2008 5:47 PM PST
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No one's saying a new SS is the final move
It’s just the move we’re talking about right now.
Signing any of the FA SS (save Furcal if he tops out at $15 million annual) puts a crippling dent in the A’s financial flexibility.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 6:02 PM PST
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the pitching staff is as shallow as it’s been in years,
Which is why the A’s should sign Johnson, regardless of how they deal with the SS situation. They have the money to do both. Not relevant.
3B is still something of a question mark
I dare you to find me even a one-win upgrade at third base in this market.
and Barton is now the only real 1B we have above AA
So sign Branyan, Hinske, Pascucci, Dan f’ing Johnson. If there’s any position that can be filled serviceably for peanuts, it’s first base.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 6:10 PM PST
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I don't see how signing any player on the market makes the A's 3 games better at the ASB
With Crosby: 3 games back, hard to upgrade
With other non-furcal SS: 2.5 games back, hard to upgrade, $10 million poorer
by MrIncognito on
Nov 21, 2008 5:57 PM PST
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Signing a 2 win upgrade means you're one win better at the break and project to be one win better the rest of the season
each of which incrementally increases your odds of making the playoffs. I’m not sure why it’s apparently difficult for people to understand that having better players makes your team more likely to win more baseball games.
The “$10 million” isn’t going to do doodly squat for the team’s playoff chances in July, unless Houston is 30 games out and coughs up Tejada on a waiver claim. Even then, you’ve given away a game in the standings by not getting him earlier on.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 6:06 PM PST
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Your own projections don't see a 2 win difference between Crosby and non-Furcal options
The 1 win difference is your own data, Mr. Snooty-pants.
The Paul Thomas projections:
Crosby – 1 WAR
O-Cab – 2.5 WAR
Renteria – 2 WAR
Izturis – 1.5 WAR
the random one of these three guys is a one win upgrade.
by MrIncognito on
Nov 21, 2008 6:13 PM PST
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1.5 is enough that it's a move that needs to be made during the Holliday window
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Nov 21, 2008 6:47 PM PST
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It's often said that a slight improvement,
or a slight deterioration, isn’t going to make a difference. That is true, if a team ends up winning, or losing, the division or the WC, by many games. But, often, the difference is a game or two, and that little difference ends up mattering.
And contending teams that desperately need help, are often held up for king’s ransoms, even for (very) marginal upgrades.
Ask Mets fans about how they feel about looking to make upgrades midseason, when the team’s desperate needs are apparent to everyone. Pretty much every team was asking the Mets for FMart, or at the very least, Jon Niese, even for very very marginal rentals.
Also, during the season, you pretty much CAN"T go the FA route, even if you are willing to heavily overpay financially. The only FAs that are going to be available during the season are utter crap. You’re pretty much forced to give up talent / prospects. At least during the offseason, you have the option of either spending money, or spending talent / prospects.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on
Nov 21, 2008 5:50 PM PST
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right -
The only FAs that are going to be available during the season are utter crap.
i concur. but i don’t think that means you should overspend on a substandard FA preseason just for the hell of it.
my first preference is getting furcal.
and like – there are arguments both ways, i agree. it’s not a clean cut situation.
better the devil you etc?
BB should send scouts to watch cricket players.
by alea iacta est on
Nov 21, 2008 5:54 PM PST
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The problem with that is
P/P may or may not qualify as acceptable.
Cheap, yes. Not necessarily satisfying.
Wait a second, isn’t that how your date tends to describe you on a Saturday night?
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 3:12 PM PST
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oh snap
Mrs. Jeans is slowly nodding her head in agreement right now.
"I'll make a list for the record. These people should be trusted: Sal, andeux, rfloh, danny...and no one else. Certainly not me. And even extra super-certainly not NSJ."
by notsellingjeans on
Nov 21, 2008 3:51 PM PST
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Mrs. Jeans dates monkeyball?
I really… wow.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 3:57 PM PST
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Wait. I'm confused.
I thought she dated alea iacta est.
I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 4:08 PM PST
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hey, the only thing that dates me
are my anachronistic soccer references
BB should send scouts to watch cricket players.
by alea iacta est on
Nov 21, 2008 4:11 PM PST
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i don't like that sentance
things that date me, i think it should be.
or possible, thing that dates me is my penchant for anachronisms etc
BB should send scouts to watch cricket players.
by alea iacta est on
Nov 21, 2008 4:36 PM PST
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She'd probably have to after going out with you
It’s not like you’d show her a good time.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Nov 21, 2008 5:14 PM PST
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I also have a pretty high shame threshold. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Nov 21, 2008 5:25 PM PST
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I have a suggestion
Crosby lives in Villa Park. I live 4 or 5 miles away.
I will start a fundraiser for Bobby and when I get enough, I will purchase a .357 with hollow points and drive over to his house, hit on his wife, get him pissed off. He will then swing a bat at me and miss low and away. I will then shoot him. PROBLEM SOLVED.
by Trainman on
Nov 21, 2008 4:14 PM PST
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I forgot one thing
I will leave a goat there to eat his grass. The goat will be property of AN with Nico listed as it’s caretaker


