Projecting the Enemy: Mariners
by PaulThomas on Nov 2, 2008 5:29 PM PST
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PrintAll content from this post has been removed in accordance with my decision to leave Athletics Nation. It is my sad duty to report that I no longer wish to create content for, or share it with, this site as currently run. I cannot, in good conscience, square the site's policies with what I consider to be the bare minimum requirements for free and fair discussion, and I have no wish to engage in unfree and unfair discussion. Goodbye.
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Also, just a couple of reminders:
1. I’m comparing offense to positional offensive values. So, catchers and shortstops get a run boost, first basemen and DHs get runs knocked off their production total.
2. I’m assuming no transactions other than options getting picked up, arbitration being offered, and players going back and forth to the minor leagues. Why? So I can “plug in” any new transactions to create a running “situation report”. Also because I’m lazy and not Buster Olney.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
If it wasn't for 1b, 2b, and SS, they might actually be an average team...shocking
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
OT
But if it’s a cesspool you want, try the AFC West, where those wacky and wonderful Raiders are a mere two games off the pace at 2-6, even after today’s disappearing act.
Hey thanks for leaving so soon, baseball. At least I had you to look forward to after Sunday’s like today, which is pretty much every Sunday.
I'm here to talk about the past.
As I posted earlier on SaBP
Only 155 days until opening day!
"However, at Elias, I think they keep track of the amount of sunflower seeds spit in a dugout each night." - Brad Ziegler, 8/7/08
Is that blog name even still accurate?
Wouldn’t “Silver and Black Shame” be more appropriate? Or perhaps “Silver and Black Embarrassment”?
Niners Nation may be a failed state, but it is still a nation…
I suppose it could be worse— think of CougCenter. Not only are they supporting a team with a Pythagorean winning percentage of (I kid you not) 0.4% in Pac-10 play, they constantly have to suffer tasteless, repetitive jokes about lascivious older women from jerks like me.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I was at the game on Sunday
I have been a season ticket holder for both the A’s & Raider’s since 92 & this is the first time I ever contemplated walking out. I only have one thing to say after Sunday…Go Sharks!!!
Can you imagine the difference
there would be if Felix would have been come up with say… the Red Sox. Some team with an above average defense and you know… an offense.
I think his numbers would just plain scary already as a 23 year old.
Wouldn’t it be a beautiful thing if Inoa would live up to it all and the A’s didn’t suck like the M’s? Don’t mind me I’m just over here knocking on wood
PT you could've saved a lot of time with this post, my version would be
Projecting the Enemy: Mariners
lol mariners
(apologies to LL and USSM)
Can't get enough of the Oakland A's or Golden State Warriors? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's and Golden Stat Hoops
Edit
I’d actually love to seethe A’s buy low on him as part ofa Beltre deal.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
Rowland-Smith
Do you really think he’ll be in the bullpen? All the talk up here is about keeping him in the rotation. Makes sense to me. He’d certainly be an improvement on Silva.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
As of right now, yes
That being said, a. he’s probably the frontrunner for the spot that will be open until Bedard returns, if indeed he DOES return (he could be non-tendered), and b. by the time the rotation above is complete, it’s entirely possible that one of them (most likely Silva or Morrow) will be sucking intensely enough to get bounced from the rotation instead of Rowland-Smith.
WIth that said, I also have to say that I do not really understand the hype about him in places like LL. He might be average, but I doubt he’s much better than that.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
By the way, the hype is that he is average and cheap.
He’s a #4 starter that is perfectly capable of handling that spot. He will probably never even reach a league-average “#3” type role. But he will put up about the same production that Washburn will, at a much lower price. He has higher upside, too (very, very slightly).
It’s not so much that we LONG for RRS to be in the rotation (although we do have a particular fondness about him, he is a personable guy with his own blog where he responds to fans). It’s that dumping Washburn’s salary and moving RRS into the rotation shows that the Mariners organization isn’t completely stupid. That, in and of itself, is enough to be excited about.
My presumption of Rowland-Smith in the rotation
is based entirely on hearing it discussed regularly in the local TV and newspaper coverage. That is probably also the origin of the hype about him in place like LL.
You might argue that the local coverage is just stupid. That may well be, but I would suggest to you, in all seriousness, that the Mariners organization is very methodical about promoting players to the fan base, and the generic local media would not be talking about Rowland-Smith as starter if the front office weren’t actively marketing his brand.
If you know anything about how the Mariners are run, you will understand that the organization’s investment in marketing a player to the fans is a stronger indicator of his future playing time than how good he is.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
thats amusing
speaking of which, i wouldnt mind getting some knowledgeable LL people over here to comment in this thread. curious to hear what they have to say.
Save Rajai Davis
hyphenated men bias
I wouldn’t project much from Rowland-Smith.
"Some of the men didn't wait for the women and children to jump off the sinking ship that is our season." - 67MARQUEZ
by notsellingjeans on Nov 5, 2008 2:57 PM PST up reply actions
No that's labrums
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 5, 2008 5:35 PM PST up reply actions
good thing, it hurts when you tear them, apparently
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 5, 2008 8:11 PM PST up reply actions
mulholland drive is awesome. sticking with david lynch, jeremy reed is more the inland empire of outfielders.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
There is something cognitively dissonant
about the title of this post and i think it’s the idea of los marineros as the “enemy.” Don’t they seem better suited for the sidekick or second banana role?
"...in baseball you wear a cap." -- george carlin
Mariners: The Penguin of baseball teams?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Good God - Now i understand everything...
It’s Entourage, AL West style :
Mariners = Turtle, the ineffectual sidekick
Rangers = Drama, the moron sidekick
A’s = E, the smart & decent sidekick
Angels = Vince, the deeply flawed superstar
"...in baseball you wear a cap." -- george carlin
Am I the only one who finds that show completely insufferable
But I did only watch the first season, which was something like 6 episodes.
by thejd44 on Nov 3, 2008 9:39 PM PST up reply actions
Okay, we'll change the show, then
A’s = Donatello
Rangers = Raphael
Angels = Michaelangelo
Mariners = Leonardo
Everybody loves Michaelangelo, but Donatello’s staff can hit Rocksteady in the head from safe ground.
au contra ire
Ya gotta know what a crumpet is to play cricket
Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.
Raphael is the only one of the four
who prefers women to boys. Artistically, I mean.
.jpg/300px-Bacchus_(painting).jpg)
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
+1
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 4, 2008 7:31 AM PST up reply actions
How about this.
Mariners: Aquaman
Rangers: The Hulk
Athletics: Batman
Angels: The Flash
facepalm.jpg
I like that better
Only because Aquaman is useless. I didn’t realize the Flash was so grindy.
by thejd44 on Nov 4, 2008 12:36 AM PST up reply actions
Aquaman = Useless
The Hulk = Power, nothing else
Batman = Has to think everything though
The Flash = Speed, nothing else
facepalm.jpg
if by 'lame' you mean 'greatest of all time' then yes, he is really quite lame
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 5, 2008 10:00 PM PST up reply actions
No, he really was lame
He is the only “superhero” I can think of who can only be hurt by the very thing he was designed to fight.
“Aw, crap! Sludgeman is spreading toxic waste everywhere! Gooooo, Planet!”
…
“Aw, crap! Captain Planet is covered with toxic waste and is now completely worthless! I guess it’s up to me and my pet monkey to bail his ass out— again.”
Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.
thats why you gotta go out and plant trees
the show was designed so that kids could fight sludgemonsters, lol. but seriously, I only watched the show because I loved wheeler, the Fire guy. I was never a fan of the heart guy though, how do you fight crime with that? Wouldn’t it be cool though if the A’s could all have rings, and chavvy can be captain planet since he’s supposed to be good at baseball, but ironically that’s the very thing (injuries from baseball) that stops him from playing. Of course, in this scenario Crosby is the evil villain in disguise who is secretly implementing his meticulously detailed plan on how to bring down his ‘team’.
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 6, 2008 9:26 PM PST up reply actions
The Rays
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 5, 2008 9:58 PM PST up reply actions
nah, they kept polution down by ensuring it was a world series no one would want to drive to
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 5, 2008 10:00 PM PST up reply actions
Leonardo was far and away the most versatile, valuable ninja turtle
at least in the Nintendo video game version.
His Katana blades afforded him the ability to strike with both power and speed. The other NT’s either suffered from lack of quickness (Donatello) or power (Raphy and Mike).
But that’s just like, my opinion, man.
"Some of the men didn't wait for the women and children to jump off the sinking ship that is our season." - 67MARQUEZ
by notsellingjeans on Nov 5, 2008 3:00 PM PST up reply actions
So Leonardo = Ellis
Donatello, Mikey, and Raph = The rest of the team?
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 5, 2008 8:12 PM PST up reply actions
Oh, don't get me wrong, Leo was great.
Mike really sucked, to be honest. Donatello had so much range, though.
It doesn’t really matter anyway, because no matter how strong or quick you are, you won’t make it through the radioactive seaweed.
au contra ire
That took me so long to beat
Then I found out the next level sucked just as hard. Video games used to be tough, man.
Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.
I've been wondering something for a while now
Were video games harder back in the NES days, or were we just not as good at video games (age and/or experience)? I wish I could find a working NES and some of those games (the Ghostbusters game was a bitch) to see if I fare any better these days.
by thejd44 on Nov 7, 2008 9:33 AM PST up reply actions
Trust me, they were so hard it makes you wonder if they were a social experiment
I still have my old Nintendo, and those games kick my ass. Ghostbusters is a perfect example— I didn’t beat that until I was in, like, high school.
Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.
Bah, you young whippersnappers had it easy!
Not only did I have to walk uphill to and from school in driving sleet wearing rusty rollerskates, but Pong kicked my ass every day and twice on Sundays.
Did you overpay for those eggs? @('.')@
The inability to save games midway through made most of them borderline impossible
I remember playing the original BattleToads, and I couldn’t get past level 3 (of 12).
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
that game was ridiculously hard, but ridiculously addicting
i think i must have forced my friends to let me borrow that on many different occasions
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 7, 2008 8:15 PM PST up reply actions
the best game ever though, for me, was NBA Jam on Sega Genesis...the game was legit
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 8, 2008 10:19 AM PST up reply actions
I remember having bad dreams...
about my inability to beat a few levels of NES video games. Yeah, I played too much.
But I agree that games are much easier now. Part of that is the prevalence of cheat codes these days and that the kids all can find help online.
No wonder their generation is so lazy. Even their procrastination is anti-competitive.
"Some of the men didn't wait for the women and children to jump off the sinking ship that is our season." - 67MARQUEZ
by notsellingjeans on Nov 8, 2008 9:45 AM PST up reply actions
I think you gave up too soon
It’s not a great show by any means but it got better than it was in those first six episodes. Ari is the star of the show, not Vince and his hangers-on (though Johnny Drama can be amusing at times).
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
E was the only character I liked at all
Six episodes is a lot to give a show a chance. It only took 2-3 episodes of the Shield to get into it. Same with The Wire.
I believe that it’s better now, but there are just too many awesome shows out there (and old ones I missed) that I don’t know if I’ll ever get back to giving it a second chance.
by thejd44 on Nov 5, 2008 9:36 AM PST up reply actions
If they're really a 76 win team and the Angels are really a 84 win team, and there's
not really anything in the pipeline at the higher levels, why not buy some free agents and try to contend while they still have Beltre? Ichiro isn’t getting any younger either. They lose about $25M from Sexson, Vidro, Ibanez and Wilkerson. I’m too lazy to calculate raises but say they add up to $15M. They’d add about five wins by adding Manny vs Balentien and another three with Giambi instead of LaHair. Maybe Reed learns to hit. Maybe Bedard dominates in the second half. Its So for a mere $20M payroll increase they become a legit competitor. Add another $5M if they feel like bringing back Griffey.
Of course I don’t think they’re really a 76 win team….more like 70-72. And I don’t think the Angels are really an 84 win team…more like 90.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
Why not sign Teixeira,
thereby subtracting him from LAA, adding him to SEA, and addressing a position that is basically unfilled? Wouldn’t that make up the 8-win difference right there. What, does Teixeira want to get paid?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I want to start off by saying that I, in no way, think that Texeira and Sexson are equal players
or any permutation thereof. However, would you think that maybe the M’s will be a little wary of signing another big contract 1b? In my mind, maybe, maybe not, but due to their recent failed signings (Vidro, Jojima, though I think he’s still ok, Sexson, Silva…) they have to be at least slightly hesitant to give that much money and that many years to any one player. I think that if they wanted to sign Tex, that hesitation will cost them.
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 3, 2008 7:44 PM PST up reply actions
If there's a true bidding war for Teixeira,
the numbers could get truly ridiculous.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
By the way I didn't mention Teixeira because I didn't think they could get him.
He probably wants to go to a contender on an 8 year no trade deal. Manny is likely to go to the highest bidder with or without a no-trade. Same with Giambi.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 3, 2008 8:26 PM PST up reply actions
You can't run a business from a position of fear.
If you really believe Teixeira is the difference between third place and first place then you can spend a whole lotta cash to sign him. 8 years $200M would be worth it, and maybe even tradeable after the 2010 collapse.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 3, 2008 8:23 PM PST up reply actions
but I don't think the Mariners will view him as the difference maker.
Is he a great player? Yes. Do many people think he will get them back into playoff contention? Probably not after this last season. Plus, I don’t see why Tex would want to even go there, unless all the teams collude and the Mariners don’t get the memo.
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 3, 2008 8:34 PM PST up reply actions
Right, I don't think he'll go there either. I also don't think the reasoning that Sexson
sucked so we’ll never sign another high priced FA is solid.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 3, 2008 8:55 PM PST up reply actions
I agree, but I didn't mean that the M's won't ever sign another high priced FA
I just meant that in a bidding war for Tex, any hesitation because of recent failures may cause an issue. To be honest, I really have no clue what the M’s are thinking right now, or what their direction is.
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 3, 2008 8:58 PM PST up reply actions
I'm not sure what they're thinking either since Jack Z is a new GM
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 3, 2008 9:00 PM PST up reply actions
It's not "never sign another high priced FA."
It’s “don’t sign 1B/DH types to long-term, big money deals because they’re almost always a bad idea.”
J.K.L.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 3, 2008 10:33 PM PST up reply actions
Hello, is Steve around?
Hi Steve, about that fear based business thing….
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 3, 2008 9:57 PM PST up reply actions
This year's Mariners were not a 76 win team
However, this year’s Mariners played Miguel Cairo, Richie Sexson, Miguel Batista and Jose Vidro for prolonged periods of time.
It is literally the case that a bunch of players leaving in free agency (or through outright release) will probably improve the Mariners’ team.
As for the Angels, I still haven’t heard a single cogent argument for more than a win or two’s worth of runs, at most, being added to their projections.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
So you recommend the Mariners "going for it" in 2009?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 3, 2008 8:26 PM PST up reply actions
In fact how about this plan:
1) Sign Manny and make him full time DH
2) Sign Dunn and make him full time 1B
3) Trade Jeff Clement, Wladimir Balentien, Michael Saunders, Carlos Triunfel, Phillippe Aumont and Juan Ramirez to the Rockies for Matt Holliday and Aaron Cook
4) Trade Carlos Silva, Yuniesky Betancourt and $8M to the Dodgers for Hu Chin-lung and Juan Pierre. Make Hu starting SS and have Pierre compete with Reed for CF.
Is that team now the favorite to win the AL West in 2009?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 3, 2008 8:49 PM PST up reply actions
By the way let's say Manny costs 5 years $100MM and Dunn 6 years $100M
So the payroll jumps in 2009 by about $50M but falls after that when Beltre and Holliday leave. I guess if they wanted they could cut payroll further by trading Dunn, Johjima and Manny — Marlins style.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 3, 2008 8:58 PM PST up reply actions
So they contend in '09? Then disintegrate in 2010? Plus they lose Clement, Balentien etc.
One year of maybe contention for many more years of obscurity? Wouldn’t they be better off just rebuilding now and making a team that will contend for years, not a year?
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 3, 2008 9:02 PM PST up reply actions
Sure if you really believe in Clement, Balentien et al, but I don't really
If you can stomach the payroll you could re-sign Beltre, although not Holliday.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 3, 2008 9:20 PM PST up reply actions
Despite their lucky run to the WS title, the 2003 Marlins are not a business model that anyone should be following
Yes, this team would quite probably be the favorites in 2009, but after 2009, it’s a cellar dweller for 5 years, maybe more. In today’s “8 team playoff crapshoot” world, that’s not a strategy that makes any sense.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
How is a 5 year cellar dweller any worse than what they are now?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 3, 2008 9:56 PM PST up reply actions
Well we Mariner fans would like to think we're not doomed to that sort of fate.
J.K.L.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 3, 2008 10:35 PM PST up reply actions
Sure, so why not use the financial resources to win now. The farm isn't
that good and Jack can rebuild it in his image with some breathing room. Use the next few years with Ichiro to build a winner around him. The division isn’t good. Take it before the Rangers rise and dominate it.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 4, 2008 5:53 AM PST up reply actions
The Rangers?
So you expect them to actually develop competent pitching?
by thejd44 on Nov 4, 2008 9:09 AM PST up reply actions
It's hard for them NOT to with how many prospects they have
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
But they keep trading away the good ones.
I seriously question Jon Daniels’ ability to generally manage a baseball team.
by thejd44 on Nov 5, 2008 9:37 AM PST up reply actions
The farm is nowhere near as bad as people think.
There’s a ton of talent, it’s just a couple years away. The higher levels aren’t in great shape, but Bavasi didn’t have the chance to trade away the still developing talent.
J.K.L.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 4, 2008 12:34 PM PST up reply actions
No, it's bad
People have posted stuff about it on minorleagueball.com, and as far as I can tell there isn’t a single player I’d give more than a B grade to.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
It's really, really not.
I read (and occasionally comment at) Minor League Ball, and those people don’t know nearly as much as they think they do. The people whose opinions most well informed Mariners fans trust (when it comes to the farm system at least) all tend to agree that there is a ton of talent at the lower levels of the system and a lot of high risk/high reward talent at the middle and upper levels. And Triunfel is easily B+/A at this point.
J.K.L.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 4, 2008 10:35 PM PST up reply actions
So you'd dump the veterans for whatever prospects you can
get and turn the reins over to the prospects rather than trading them?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 5, 2008 5:13 AM PST up reply actions
If it were up to me...
I might consider trading some of the less exciting but more sure-thing prospects (Adam Moore springs immediately to mind ) packaged with certain veterans if the return was good enough. I’d make upgrading the defense my #1 priority, even if it means putting up with poor offensive contributions at SS and CF. I would not for a second entertain the notion of pursuing an Ichiro trade. I wouldn’t sell low on Bedard, especially considering that the most recent news on his shoulder is really encouraging.
In other words, I wouldn’t have an all out fire-sale and punt ‘09, but I wouldn’t make an active push to be competitive either. I think the biggest mistake the Mariners could make would be to completely ignore what looks to be a pretty good FA class this year because they don’t plan to compete. FA contracts tend to go longer than one season.
J.K.L.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 5, 2008 1:42 PM PST up reply actions
Treading water?
Neither an all-out rebuild nor contention? Sounds like the Orioles.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 5, 2008 5:35 PM PST up reply actions
It's not really a similar situation at all.
The Mariners have talent. Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, Adrian Beltre, Ichiro, Jeff Clement, Brandon Morrow and (to a lesser extent) Jose Lopez are all valuable pieces. The Mariners have a very solid bullpen and a surplus of suitable replacements kicking around AAA. Their biggest holes are at 1B and DH, which are the easiest spots to fill. Sign someone like Furcal, get someone cheap and undervalued to play 1B/DH and improve the outfield defense and hey, relevance.
Jeff Sullivan and Dave Cameron both outline common sense plans for next season. It’s not the way it’s usually done, but there’s no reason it can’t work.
J.K.L.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 5, 2008 6:25 PM PST up reply actions
Incremental changes on a 100 loss $100M payroll
team strike me as treading water.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 5, 2008 6:42 PM PST up reply actions
Cameron's plan doesn't sound feasible
I doubt you get the Brewers interested in Washburn and they don’t need Lopez, certainly not at the cost of Hart. Also Brad Nelson? Really?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 5, 2008 6:45 PM PST up reply actions
Sullivan's plan is apparently spelled out in Part 2
I’m not sure where that is. In any case neither his not Cameron’s proposed teams sounds like they’d be very good.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 5, 2008 6:47 PM PST up reply actions
Whoops a doodle.
The point isn’t turning the team into the favorite to win the division, it’s putting a decent enough team to stay relevant (and with the right breaks, make some noise down the stretch) while rebuilding the farm system.
The Mariners were awful in large part because they got sub replacement level production from the two easiest spots on the diamond to fill with productive bats. Upgrade those two positions to league average, experience some regression, and this is a much better team. Not good, but not 100 loss bad either. Incremental upgrades to another position or two and you might be in the race past July. Do it again in 2010 and you might be in the thick of things, all without suffering through three or four horrible years or trading away the farm.
J.K.L.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 5, 2008 7:46 PM PST up reply actions
doesn't
trying to stay respectable-but-not-contending hamper your rebuilding efforts? Beane calls that reloading, but his teams have been playoff contenders while doing so. What good does it do the M’s to be semi-sort of good versus really bad? The best thing I can think of is retaining fans, and if you’re the GM, keeping your job.
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 5, 2008 8:15 PM PST up reply actions
Keeping fans is important for the Mariners.
It’s how they can afford to run $100 million payroll teams out there. And really, I don’t think it hampers the rebuilding efforts all that much, especially if you have the scouting department the Mariners have.
I understand the point, and I don’t think it’s necessarily a bad thing to go into rebuilding mode, but I don’t think it’s the best course of action. It’s almost certainly what’s going to happen, though, so we’ll see.
J.K.L.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 5, 2008 8:18 PM PST up reply actions
eh it's probably marginal either way
unless your holding on to Beltre for mediocrity’s sake rather than trading him for a boatload of prospects. However, I don’t think anyone is going to go trading crazy for him anyway. But I really want him for the A’s.
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 5, 2008 9:44 PM PST up reply actions
In a just world he'd fetch a King's ransom.
He’s a star through means that no one fully appreciates.
J.K.L.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 5, 2008 10:00 PM PST up reply actions
so it ellis, my friend, so is ellis...
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 5, 2008 10:01 PM PST up reply actions
Absolutely.
When I become the President of Baseball Land people will fully appreciate players like Ellis and Beltre.
J.K.L.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 5, 2008 10:04 PM PST up reply actions
and please, oh please, can we have Mark Mulders' arm back and fully reattached?
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 5, 2008 10:22 PM PST up reply actions
Jeff's team is pretty bad
I don’t see either his nor Dave’s team competing unless they really overachieve like 2007
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 5, 2008 10:13 PM PST up reply actions
The Orioles have talent too, like Adam Jones!
Heh heh heh.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
or the Rangers
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 5, 2008 8:12 PM PST up reply actions
I trust MY opinions.
My opinions, reviewing the individual players of the Mariners farm system, are that there is not a single player that I would give more than a B grade to. There are a handful of strikeout-prone hackers with horrible plate discipline, a couple of decent young pitchers miles away from the majors, and Carlos Triunfel. And that’s it.
I’m sorry to burst your bubble here. If there’s a specific player you’re thinking of, I’ll be perfectly happy to explain why he does not warrant more than a B grade.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I don't necessarily disagree that Triunfel is the only prospect in the system that warrants more than a B grade.
I think you’re underestimating the amount of B grade prospects in the system, and I think you’re overlooking the possibility that a lot of those B grade prospects are more than capable of developing into B+/A- prospects.
I’m not saying the farm system is in great shape; clearly it’s not. What I am saying is that it’s not in ruins, that I trust the track record of Engle and Fontaine when it comes to finding talent in the later rounds that seemingly comes out of nowhere, and that I trust Zduriencik’s ability to develop talent much more than I trusted Bavasi.
And I want to be clear that I’m not discounting your opinions; I read your posts here, at LL, at MiLB and at BtBS. You’re a smart, well informed guy. It’s just that I value the opinions of Dave Cameron, Conor Glassey, Jason Churchill and Jay Yencich more than I do yours when it comes to this particular subject, because they know more about the Mariners’ minor league system than just about anyone.
J.K.L.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 5, 2008 1:32 PM PST up reply actions
The Mariners have tons of money.
They don’t have to “rebuild” in the traditional sense. They can add talent and be competitive in 2009 without sacrificing any major part of the future.
J.K.L.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 3, 2008 10:35 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, like last year when they signed Carlos Silva. Wait...
Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.
In reply to that last sentence, you mean their projections without signings/trades, right?
In light of that, I would agree that they aren’t an outstanding team at all currently. But we all know that they are going to do something, and push themselves to the high 80/low 90 win plateu. And, of course, if they can keep outproducing their Pythag record, they could be even better (I have no clue whether that’s an actual coincidence or not).
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 3, 2008 8:37 PM PST up reply actions
Saddest news of all
It must be a tough time to be a sports fan in the state of Washington. The Mariners just lost 100 games with their $100 million payroll. The Seahawks are, as of me writing this paragraph, 2-5, which while not technically out of contention in the fetid cesspool that is the NFC West, is pretty gosh-darned close. The basketball team just up and left for Oklahoma City, of all places, after trying and failing to extort a huge cash giveaway from the citizens.
But as bad as those are, worse than any of them is the news that came on Tuesday: Tuba Man, after a brutal assault two weeks ago, has died from his injuries.
Those of you who haven’t been in Seattle won’t know anything about Tuba Man, but think of similar characters in Oakland and you’ll understand how it feels.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
They've arrested three teenagers on suspicion of the attack, so that's something.
It’s really, really sad.
J.K.L.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 6, 2008 8:50 PM PST up reply actions
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