There are many options for the A's going into this season; they can stick with the guys they have and hope they're good enough to make a playoff run; they can sign a free agent starter and hope he offers them some stability; or they can swing a deal for a starting pitcher.  Let's look at the current options:

Justin Duchscherer

Sean Gallagher

Dana Eveland

Dallas Braden

Gio Gonzalez

Josh Outman

James Simmons

Vincent Mazzaro

I highly doubt Simmons or Mazzaro makes the opening day roster.  Gonzalez has nothing left to prove in AAA, while neither of the two kids has spent an entire season there.

Duchscherer, Gallagher, and Eveland seem like locks.  Eveland was solid in almost every start after returning from the minors minus the hands-over-the-head thing that Curt Young hates, except for the last start of the season against Texas.  Still, he showed enough potential that he should be in the rotation.

Braden is a probably.  He was decent, though not spectacular, last year.  Braden is a more advanced version of Greg Smith minus the pickoff throw; he isn't afraid to throw inside, and has better secondary pitches than Smith.  If the A's pick up a veteran starter, Braden and Gonzalez are likely fighting for the final rotation spot.  I'd take Braden in that wager.

Gonzalez was solid in his first two starts against Toronto and Tampa Bay, but was horrible after that.  He got blown up in five consecutive starts, allowing four or more runs in every start and never finishing more than four innings.  He's got better strikeout stuff than Braden, but he needs to command it better in the zone.  Gonzalez settled down in the bullpen, allowing 0 ER in 6 IP as a reliever in three appearances.  I'd guess that this is where he'll start the season.  I see Outman starting the season in AAA, unless they decide to swap these two and send Gio back to Sacramento.

This leaves us with four, possibly five spots filled.  This leads me to the next option, signing a free-agent starter.  Here are some options, with what I think they'll get dollar-wise in parentheses:

Derek Lowe (4/$56 mil; wants to go back to the East Coast)

Oliver Perez (5/$65 mil; erratic, but has huge upside)

Ben Sheets (3/$45 mil; injury prone, but is great when he's healthy.  I could see this being two years for a little more cash also)

Ryan Dempster (4/$54 mil; had a great year, but has had control problems in the past)

Randy Johnson (1/$9 mil; wants to get to 300 wins.  If not on a contender, will he stick around after that?)

Brad Penny (1/$8 mil plus incentives; injury risk, but talented if he stays healthy)

If the A's are going to spend money on a free-agent starter, I can't see it being someone who will be on the roster long-term, as Cahill, Anderson, Simmons, et. al. are on the way up.  I don't think Lowe wants to stay on the West Coast, so he's out.  Perez will want too many years, and can't get the ball over the plate.  Sheets is more injury-prone than Rich Harden, though if he'd take a two-year deal he might be perfect for the A's.  Dempster is interesting; if he'd take a three-year deal I'd be interested, but I think he thinks he can get five years somewhere else.  Johnson is interesting, but he's a huge injury risk, added to the fact that he's well over 40 and his performance could easily decline.  Penny would cost a ton more if he were healthy, but he never is.  He needs to prove his health before anyone will give him significant cash.

Out of this group the two that jump out at me are Brad Penny and Ben Sheets.  Both are injury risks, but they're both very talented pitchers that could easily be bargains if they can manage to stay healthy.  A fully healthy Sheets might even get more money than Sabathia in this market.  However, signing either of these two would bring to light the question, if the A's are going to have an injury-prone pitcher for a year, why not RICH HARDEN?  I think signing either of these two guys would be a mistake; Billy's looking to add reliable, consistent young players to the roster, and doesn't want more injury risks that could just as easily spend 2/3 of the season on the DL as start 25 games.  My prediction:  he signs NONE of these guys.  I could see him taking a flyer on a guy like Odalis Perez or Jason Jennings on a minor-league deal, but that's about it.

That leaves a trade as the only way that would make much sense of adding a starting pitcher to the roster.  Some possibilities include:

Jake Peavy

Bronson Arroyo

Javier Vazquez (though apparently his NTC includes all West Coast teams)

There's one guy that never seems to get a fair shake in my mind.  That's Brewers SP David Bush.  He always seems to have a job and then have it snatched away, even though he's a decent enough pitcher.  He put up a 1.14 WHIP last year, and yet was splitting starts with Seth McClung for a couple months.  Bush seems like a perfect Beane trade candidate; more actual value than perceived value.  He could probably be had for Gregorio Petit and Jason Fernandez, or something like that.  The scenario of Beane trading for an obscure starter to fill the final rotation spot makes a lot of sense to me, so I will go out on a limb and say that's what will happen:  Billy Beane trades for David Bush.

That would give the A's a rotation of Duchscherer, Gallagher, Eveland, Braden, and Bush.  That seems decent enough with plenty of upside.

I think the options, in order, should be ranked:

1.  Trade for a starter that doesn't cost much

2.  Stick with what we have

3.  Sign a free agent starter

What do you think?  Let me know.