Randy Johnson: the Perfect Fit?
by UOSportsDude on Nov 14, 2008 7:36 PM PST
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PrintThanks to the sheer incompetence of the Arizona Diamondback's front office, which couldn't re-sign a hometown favorite to a severely discounted one-year contract, Randy Johnson, possibly the greatest DBack of all time, will now hit the open market. All he wanted was a mere 50% of his reported $10 million market value, but apparently that was too much for fourth-year GM Josh Byrnes to cough up. So now what does that mean? It means that the A's should seriously consider taking a look at signing the Big Unit.
First of all, why should they sign him? He is entering his age 45 season, can he still throw a fastball or will his new out-pitch be the eephus he displayed last year?
Johnson was one of the best pitchers in the NL last season, albeit in a poor division, but he still managed to finish the season with a 3.91 ERA and 173 k's in 184 IP. More impressively, after the all-star break he posted Cy Young worthy numbers: a 2.41 ERA 1.05 WHIP and a .232 BAA. All while posting a 78:16 k/bb rate in 84 IP. That's impressive folks. Pitching that well to finish off the year clearly shows that he will definitely have something left in the tank for this year.
He failed miserably in his last trip to the AL, why should he do any better here?
Well Johnson apparently wasn't cut out to handle the pressure in the Big Apple. When you get into a tussle with a camera man on your first day on the job, things could look more auspicious. He never felt comfortable in New York and his numbers suffered. Looking at how well he pitched in the more low-key environment out in the desert, it leads me to believe he would fit well in a city like Oakland, not quite a national media hot spot (or a Bay Area media hot spot either).
Why should the A's be interested?
Most importantly, Johnson is looking at only a 1-year deal. Instead of committing four years and a ton of cash in signing Lowe, signing the Big Unit for just 2009 gives the rotation a major shot in the arm while not blocking a spot for one pitching prospects - Anderson, Cahill, Simmons, or Mazzaro - for 2010. It also gives Beane a little more comfort knowing that he won't have to rush them, instead letting them getting ample time in AAA to fully develop. Johnson has stated he wants to play on the West Coast, and more importantly, with the addition of Holliday, and hopefully more pieces to come, he could be the final piece to a contending 2009 Oakland Athletics. If Beane could ink Johnson to a contract in th 8-10 million range, there would be plenty leftover to get at least one, but preferably two of: Furcal, Dunn, Ibanez, and Giambi.
Think about the rotation in 2009:
Duke
Johnson
Gallagher
Eveland
Braden/Gio
And then for 2010, assuming we keep Duke:
Duke
Gallagher
Eveland
Some combination of Cahill, Anderso, Simmons, Mazzaro, Braden.
That would make a pretty solid run at the Division, if not the series, while the A's are building their new digs.
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He'd be a "hometown" guy actually
since he grew up in the Bay Area if I remember correctly.
facepalm.jpg
Livermore
I like the idea, but would it take 8-10 million to get him? Sounds like he was willing to re-sign with Arizona for 5mil, if I’m understanding correctly. I’m not quite as sure as you are that he’ll pitch at the level of a #2 starter, and his back is no better than Duchscherer’s, so I don’t know if 8-10mil is a great risk. Somewhere in the 5-8mil range, though, and I’d say yes.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Arizona looks like their selling
so it makes sense that they dont want to resign Johnson, as they aren’t trying to compete this year. With the loss of Hudson, and the possibilty of trading away Snyder, they probably think they’d be better off just saving cash and spending it on something more future-oriented.
by UOSportsDude on Nov 14, 2008 8:08 PM PST up reply actions
I'd read that he was willing to sign with Arizona for $8 million
but hey, what’s a couple of million among millionaires, right?
I remember Johnson saying he wanted to end his career in Oakland as a Closer about 5-10 years ago
now I admitt my memory may be faulty or I dreamed it, but Its makes sence. He grew up in the Bay Area so there’s a good chance his favorite team is the A’s. He could come cheap if that is the case, say 5mill +5mill in bonus clauses to end his career at his hometown A’s
The A’s could use him as a closer without stunting the progress of there many, many young starters on the team now plus at least two if not three studs to be tried out from the minors by the end of the year and probably sooner . Leaving it all out there for one inning could reserect his career ala Eck. Teaching the young’ens would also be a good one for him to try if he has a wish to coach after baseball. Something tells me that if he likes to pitch at 45 he will like to be involved in baseball longer than that.
Holiday, Johnson, and it has to be a shortstop either by FA or trade and this team could be very exciting to watch next year with a few if’s like if Chavez is avg+ and if one of our Rookies has a better year and if one of our Triple AAA aces comes up and produces.
He'll have to vulture five wins though
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 15, 2008 10:26 PM PST up reply actions
you're right
he was born in walnut creek
by UOSportsDude on Nov 14, 2008 8:09 PM PST up reply actions
Someone here said their uncle had actually faced him in a high school game
Bet that was “fun”.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
That was me.
And yes, he said it was as scary as you’d imaging facing a high school version of Johnson to be.
Too much of an injury risk
An expensive alternative to Outman or Gio or Braden or Mazzaro. And also fits into the A’s future about as well as Emil Brown did.
An expensive, but more established pitcher then those guys
I fully acknowledge the injury risk here but Gallagher, Outman, Gio, Braden and Mazzaro all lach big league experience and while they are talented it seems to be asking much to go into a contending year with the fragile Duke as the #1 and the rest of the young guys filling slots #2 – 5. The 2nd most experienced SP on the current roster is Eveland and even he spent some time down in AAA last year because of performance issues.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Hell with "more established"
He’s just plain better.
by thejd44 on Nov 14, 2008 8:50 PM PST up reply actions
I'm sorry,
did you just compare Randy Johnson to Emil Brown?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
He did it with more impressive thoughtlessness
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Flaw in the argument: The A's are clearly trying to win in 2009
So signing a 1-year veteran pitcher makes sense.
by thejd44 on Nov 14, 2008 8:51 PM PST up reply actions
I'd like to think that's what the Holliday trade means
but he could very well be the Sabathia of next year, traded at the deadline for a couple studs. The A’s still have a whole lot of question marks before they are officically contending next year… Questions that Giambi and Dunn and Randy Johnson can’t fix.
What are you talking about?
The 2 largest holes on the roster right now are first base and 5th starter (and shortstop, which is roughly of similar proportions).
Signing Giambi, Johnson and Furcal would precisely fill those holes.
I’ll say this again— acquiring Holliday does not make any sense if the A’s are not going to make a serious effort to reach the postseason. He will not fetch the return in July that he did this week.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I disagree about the 5th starter hole.
In my mind, there’s still a hole at third until Chavez proves he can play there for a year.
And I disagree about you saying that Holliday won’t bring back a return that he just did. The A’s traded away Smith, who was horrible last year but still managed an ERA around 4.00. Huston Street has been injury prone, a whiner, and an inconsistent closer. Carlos Gonzalez had two really good years in the minors but hasn’t shown any consistency to reach his potential and should never have been in the majors last year.
Last year the Indians received LaPorta, a near-MLB ready slugger, and a couple other decent prospects. I don’t know if you really love CarGon or Street or Smith, but when the Yankees or Red Sox are treading water behind the Rays and the fan base starts panicking, they’re going to call the A’s and offer them up something that would make Beane a very happy man.
There's a hole at first and short even with the guys that we know can play there for a year
If there is a 1% chance of Eric Chavez being a league-average 3B this year, 3B is less of a hole than those two positions. As for 5th starter, I’d sure like to hear the five pitchers that you think are all going to post sub-4.50 ERAs (which is about the 10 runs below average threshold for an Oakland pitcher).
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
If Greg Smith can post a 4.00 ERA...
Duke, Gallagher, Eveland, Braden
Outman has the potential to. Gio definitely has the potential to, if he throws some strikes, which he did from the bullpen last year.
And I’m definitely still a believer in Daric Barton. One bad rookie year is not enough for me to give up on a just-turned-23 year old… so no hole there. And yes, I agree there is less at SS than third.
I actually do agree it's better for us to play Barton than sign Giambi
Frankly I’m surprised to see PT advocating it.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I believe in Daric Barton... in 2010
Giambi isn’t a big upgrade, I’ll admit. There are probably better uses for that money. Like, say, I dunno, Randy Johnson.
Greg Smith posted a 4 ERA by getting really really really lucky. You’re suggesting the A’s have a bunch of pitchers get really really really lucky (and/or suddenly develop into much better pitchers)? Not a great strategy.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Also by having a good fly ball defense. I propose keeping that defense
the strength of the team.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 15, 2008 10:28 PM PST up reply actions
Randy pitched plenty of innings gt
Gio and Mazarro aren’t MLB-ready yet. One of Braden/Outman is already in the rotation regardless of whether the A’s sign an FA SP or not.
Duke-Unit-Gallagher-Eveland-Braden/Outman
And, the A’s traded for Holliday. Unless the extension is already penned out, the A’s need to capitalize on the opportunity.
This.
if you can get him for $8m for one year
Then I’m not too concerned about injury risk. Even if he throws half a season he’s probably going to be worth $8 million in 2009. If the A’s are really loading up for one year, Johnson’s exactly the kind of guy they should be going after – still good, short term contract. If they can get him for 1/10, done. 2/20, less enthusiastic but sure. He might be a train wreck next year but $10m isn’t going to kill the 2010 A’s since there might be literally no one on it making anything other than Chavez and Ellis. After that pass.
Some confusion re: Johnson's asking price
His base salary was indeed $10 million, but his contract included a portion of his original signing bonus to be paid in 2008 and with other incentives pushed his total earnings to around $14-15 million. So was he offering %50 of base or total?
Plus, Arizona still owes him $4 million in differed salary for 2009 and 2010.
Anyways, in an effort to keep things simple I say it’ll take a $10 million offer to land the Big Unit in 2009.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Johnson did face the worst hitters by OPS of any pitcher who pitched at least 50 innings
in 2008 so I’d take his numbers with a grain of salt. Part of that is the pitchers parks in Petco, Phone Booth and maybe Dodger Stadium, but other NL West pitchers pitched in those places too.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
Screw it, I'd sign him
The A’s have the rotation depth to absorb an injury this year. What they don’t have, not yet anyway, is the rotation upside. Most of their pitchers are still grass-green and can’t be expected to post good numbers.
Sign him, move Crosby and the team’ll have plenty of money to get Furcal and still maintain a commitment to investing seriously in amateur signings.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Have you guys seen his post-break stats?
If he performs anywhere near that, he will easily be worth 10 mil. Considering that Gil Meche and Jeff Weaver are both making more than that.
i would say spending over 10 mil for a two-win upgrade pitcher for a team with no chance of competing isn't worth it
if he pitched for a big market team, it would be a sound inestment
by UOSportsDude on Nov 14, 2008 8:55 PM PST up reply actions
here's the thing..
lets say they sign RJ/Furcal to add to Holliday are they really true contenders?
progress from the rest of the pitching staff + health +more progression out of sweeney/buck/suzuki/barton etc needs to happen
the hope is that 1 or 2 hitters can trickle down the rest of the lineup sort of like the dodgers w/ manny
i’d rather spend $$ on several impact hitters than a slight improvement in the pitching
You can't have that
You aren’t going to get “several” impact hitters for the $10 million or so you’d spend on Johnson.
You’re right that even if the A’s signed Johnson and Furcal to back-up Holliday they’d still need progression from the rest of the pack to contend. But signing those two vets would lessen the need for as much progression and might even make things easier for the young guys to develop.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I'd be all for signing Big Unt
a 1 year deal sounds good, he’s a savvy vet who can still dial it up on the radar, and he adds depth to the young rotation.
Can you imagine him in an A’s uniform pitching for his 300th career victory? Crazier shit’s happened folks….
how much would attendance increase?
if furcal, giambi/dunn, and big unit were all wearig green and gold next year….along with big daddy of course
I think it would improve attendance a bit
maybe not dramatically, but the casual fan would definitely have more reason to come out to games outside of Red Sox and Yankee posers.
so, yes, I believe it would improve attendance.
Nobody made this joke yet...
That Johnson’s a good fit anywhere!
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
So lets say the A's sign Johnson, Furcal and Giambi
Is this a playoff calibre team?
CF Ryan Sweeney
SS Rafeal Furcal
LF Matt Holliday
1B Jason Giambi
DH Jack Cust
RF Travis Buck
3B Eric Chavez
C1 Kurt Suzuki
2B Mark Ellis
SP Justin Duchscherer
SP Randy Johnson
SP Sean Gallagher
SP Dana Eveland
SP Josh Outman
facepalm.jpg
All three of those? Wow
My admittedly unscientific projection bumps the team up to 92 wins, which is definitely a serious contender. Even if I’m optimistic by some degree, there’s no doubt that the A’s are at least “in play.”
I’d skip Giambi and just roll the money into the draft and international signings, personally. Doesn’t weaken the roster too much and allows the team to be a little more liberal about trading prospects because it knows more talent is getting added to the system to replace them.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
In my fondest dreams they really roll the money into the draft and international signings
as I posted during our draft threads, might as well get while the getting’s good before the slotting system completely collapses
I think that's worth a shot. The only guy who could be an albatross is Furcal.
Holliday, Johnson and Giambi could even be deadline bait if the plan fails.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 15, 2008 10:31 PM PST up reply actions
I still remember Johnson when he got shelled while pitching for Yankees
Maybe he was hurt then.
He had a 3.91 ERA in the NL this year for Arizona
That would be like 5 over here right?
He got shelled in IL play in two or three starts and does he not still have a suspect back?
And he’s getting old. I doubt Billy bites on that one.
"getting" old?
no, he’s definitely already old
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
You are right
he’s already old.
Let him pitch for one of our rivals.
I say he’s good for an ERA over 5.00 now.
to be fair
The year he got “shelled” in NYC his peripherals were still really good.
i would not be surprised
if he had peripherals like last year, but in around 150 innings instead of 184 or whatever it was.
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
I'd be surprised, given that he'd be facing better hitters and he's a year older
and his back could give him more trouble than last year.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 15, 2008 10:32 PM PST up reply actions
i wasn't saying
that it would be for the a’s, so “facing better hitters” may or may not be true
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
Another good thing about RJ
His 300th win will obviously bring in a ton of fans. It’s possible that he could be the last 300 game winner too. Who wouldn’t want to see that?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Unless people stop playing baseball, there's no possibility that Johnson will be the last 300 game winner
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I don't know that I agree
People still play baseball, they just use starters very very differently.
We go whole seasons where no one in MLB wins 20 games. You have to win 20/year for 15 years to reach 300.
I wouldn’t discount the possibility that changes in usage make this an unreachable target for the foreseeable future.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I can see pretty far into the future, and I see more 300 game winners -- like Mussina or
Moyer, or Sabathia or someone else who pitches till he’s 50.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 15, 2008 10:33 PM PST up reply actions
Really?
Among the top 20 active win leaders, only three (besides Johnson, Maddux, Glavine) have any chance at all to make it to 300: Mussina (at 265, it’s possible he’ll play two-three more years and win 15 a year), Moyer (who if he plays til he’s 50 has a chance), and Hudson (who’ll need a long career maintaining form).
Of the younger generation, Johan is 30 and has 109 (that’s 9 more 20 win seasons), Peavy is 28 and has 86, Halladay is 32 and has 131, Sabathia is 28 and has 117, Oswalt is 32 and has 129.
Not that wins mean much, but it’s possible (although not probable) in my opinion that Johnson is the last 300 win pitcher.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
300 game winners
aren’t a dime a dozen so you know they are rare to begin with…
Just because you or others (and I’m not trying to make this personal) don’t project any pitchers currently playing to win that many doesn’t mean there’s not someone currently in MLB (on MiLB) that will do it again. ex. Maddux pitched through this neuvo-modern relief pitcher era and has over 350. Someone pitching right now will win 300 and there are plenty to come. I’ll lay odds if you like.
still Swish Fan #1.
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