If it was for, say, 2 guaranteed years and then 2 vesting options based on ABs or something over the first 2 years.

Basically just ensuring that he’s healthy, because if he’s healthy he’ll pretty well likely be productive.

Furcal put up absolutely ridiculous stats last year. However, he put them up in only 36 games. If people think he can put stats like that up for a whole year (and believe me, there are), they’re horribly mistaken.

He’s a good player in that he’s much better than Crosby. But there are a lot of players a lot better than Crosby. Unfortunately, he’s not $60 mil over 4 years better, IMO.

Other than last year and his rookie year, he’s never put up an OBP higher than .369. He’s not a huge power threat either, other than a big flash of power last year, but again he’ll still hit more than Crosby.

I would love to have him on the team, but the unfortunate reality is that his fluky 36 games last year probably added several million dollars to his annual salary, which means ANY team that wants to sign him will have to overpay for him, something the A’s don’t like to do.

As I’ve said before, I think if you put Pennington leading off or in front of Cust, he’ll walk quite a bit. I know, he’s still Cliff Pennington, but he’s cheap and he’s fast and he could end up scoring quite a few runs.

I don’t invest $60 million without consulting with the experts.

perhaps we’re overstating how bad bobby crosby is?

just a thought

At this point in time I’m saying “No” to Furcal for 4 years, pretty much regardless of any realistic price.

NSJ, you are seriously underplaying the risk here. Furcal had back surgery, yeah he came back at the end of this year but a surgically repaired back is not the same thing as a healthy back. The A’s had to kick in at least $5 million before the Braves were willing to take Kotsay and send back a viable prospect in Devine… who had back injury issues himself! If the A’s need to ship Furcal elsewhere in two years because of his back they’ll need to eat at least $20 million of the $30 million you’ve guaranteed just to get something decent in return based on your Kendall and Kotsay examples! That’s not a good selling point.

As mikev suggested above, if the A’s could get some contract language that protected them from the obvious Doomsday scenario like naking the last two years vesting options to be kicked in after X-number at bats then OK, this becomes more plausible. But you’re already allowing that the A’s are going to have to overbid just to entice Furcal to a team that may (or may not) compete in the near future and to sign without a no-trade clause, I’m not sure how generous Furcal’s agents are going to be when it comes to safe-guarding the A’s investment.

I hear all your arguments for why this signing makes sense… Hell, I even agree with a lot of them. But this is an extremely risky investment and what’s worse, we’re trying to justify what looks like a bad bet. There are other options out there, I’d want to fully explore them before going overboard on Furcal.

I know this is a most unpopular stance, but I still think Bobby Crosby might play up to the level we’ve all been hoping he would play, and I would much rather give him another shot than spend the money on Furcal. I feel badly for the guy, and I know that there’s no statistical case for believing that he’ll turn it around, and it’s hard to feel sorry for someone making the dough, but I do, on both counts. I gotta feeling – just a gut instinct, but I’m going with it.

I also believe Furcal is going to end up being a huge mistake – again, no scientific evidence, just the gut feel, but I’ll stick with it. Holliday is huge, but Furcal would be a mistake – I’d much rather spend the money on a pitcher.

There. I’ve said it. Bobby Crosby. will. have. a. breakthrough. season. in.09., and I hope it’s with the A’s.

I think the market is a little too gaga over an awesome 143 at-bats last season. He’s 31, has a career OPS+ of 96, and has back issues. Even MORP pegs his value at just over $42M for the next six years, if you like BP’s stuff.

He fills an obvious need, but the dollars don’t justify the potential upgrades.

I would argue that he is a worse long-term solution than Furcal is. Part of the goal here is to potentially shore up the position through some prime contention years.

If they signed him for $15 million a year wouldn’t he be the highest paid player on the team? Holliday is $13 mil and Chavez is $11.5 mill (unless it goes up again in 09) right? That would be a combined $39.5 million for 3 players, two with really bad injury issues! That is over %75 of the current payroll as far as I can figure.
   I think the A’s should stick with Crosby for one last year. I know he has been really bad for 3 years now, what’s one more year? maybe he can learn something from Holliday? Stick him in the back part of the lineup for now and sign one more starting pitcher. Maybe, just maybe Crosby gets a little better next year. We could hope for .250 avg/.315 obp/.400 sg right? probably not, although it would be a contract year so he has some incentive.

I think it makes some sense to overpay Furcal in the short-term, given that he’s the best available option at a position that is very thin in this free agent pool. I would rather go 3 years guaranteed at $40 million (basically his last deal) along with a 4th year option rather than a straight-up 4-year deal. You’re really taking a gamble on an injury risk the more guaranteed years you give him. And since the A’s finances will be pretty well held down by the all the young players for the next 2-3 seasons, the team can afford to overpay on a per-year basis on a shorter-term deal rather than be forced to commit a 4th guaranteed year. I’d even go up to 3 years/45 million.

But if it’s clear during negotiations that the deal breaker is going to be that 4th year (which Furcal seems to insinuate) AND it seems like some other team is going to give him that year, then I would move on and look at the trade market for Hardy or Escobar or even Tejada.

I actually don’t think the worst thing to happen would be to just totally demote Crosby and give the job to Pennington, if all else fails. I think over a full season Pennington could play average defense and get on-base at a .350ish clip. He won’t slug very many extra base hits, but if you stick him at the very bottom of the order, he could be a nice “2nd leadoff hitter” that could steal 15-20 bases a year and give the team a little different scoring option at the bottom of the order. He could keep the spot warm for Jason Christian, Dusty Coleman or Nino Leyja, any of whom could be ready for the big leagues within 2-4 years. The team could then use the Furcal money to definitely get Giambi and throw out a Cust-Holliday-Giambi 3-4-5 next season that could be pretty potent.

My thoughts on the dreaded four-year deal is that the A’s can do it, if they feel they can get 2-3 good years out of Furcal but have to commit to four years to get him. Yes, in 2012 it will be a bad deal, but by 2012 the A’s can probably absorb a bad contract for a year.

So if you’re ok with a 3 year deal but not a 4 year deal, why not figure Beane can either pull a Kendall/Kotsay and mitigate that fourth year problem, or the A’s, come 2012, will be in a pretty good position to eat a bad contract for a year. Especially if they have had success from 2009-11 as they move into a new stadium.

Furcal Train

Now I’ve been happy lately,
thinking about the signings to come
And I believe it could be
We might get a good one

Oh I’ve been smiling lately
dreaming about a guy who can field and run
And I believe it could be
Some day, it’s going to come

Cause up from Chavez Ravine
there rides a Furcal train
Oh Furcal train take this Nation
Win the division again.

Now I’ve been happy lately,
thinking about the shortstops to come
And I believe it could be
We might get a good one.

Furcal train sounding louder
Sign onto the Furcal train
Come on now Furcal train
Furcal train leadoff hitter

Everyone jump on the Furcal train
Come on now Furcal train

Get your tickets together
Go bring your good friends too
Cause it’s getting nearer
He might be healthy, too

Now come and join the cheering
It’s not so far from you
And it’s getting nearer
Soon it will all be true

Now I’ve been crying lately
Seeing our infield as it is
Why must we go on sucking?
Why can’t we get some hits?

Cause up from Chavez Ravine
There rides a Furcal train
Furcal train take this Nation
Win the AL West again.

Original here.

Note: this song parody in no way implies an endorsement of the Furcal train, its cost, or its destination.

PT, could you please shoot me an e-mail? I’ve got a question I’d like to ask you.

There’s a bunch of them out there — Hu, Lillibridge, Brignac, Rodriguez, Wood, Alcides, DeJesus, and more. Personally I’d prefer the best defender of this bunch, which might be Hu, Lillibridge or Alcides. Alcides is the only one likely to cost a lot in trade.

Furcal is a formerly good, never great player with a bad back who wants a long term $60M deal. That sounds like the exact opposite of what I’d look for in a thirtysomething FA. Furthermore, once we’ve “solved” the SS problem by signing him, we may actually think we have to play him (see Crosby, Kendall, Kotsay) even if he’s a shell of his former self, and we might not look for a better solution.

I’d much rather spend the money on Dunn. If we can get Dunn plus someone else, I’d rather get Lowe.

I’m not as opposed to the money itself as I am the semblance of commitment. I would easily give Furcal two years at 20MM per, with a vesting option for a third, but I would not give him any more than two guaranteed years. If he were to get hurt, the A’s wouldn’t be too badly in the hole through 2010, but as the young players begin hitting arbitration in 2011-2012, it is critical for the team to have the funds freed up to pay these guys, and hopefully lock them up to team-friendly contracts.

The trade market for Hardy, Alciedes Escobar, or one of the low-bat, high defensive SS prospects (Wood, Lillibridge, Hu, etc.) should definitely be explored.