but I feel like the parts might be worth more than the whole. I would like the reserve the right to knee jerk till after the deal is completed officially and after Col has flipped anyone involved.

Hardy, 26, actually is more attractive than Cameron — he is nine years younger, two years away from free agency and expendable due to the rise of top shortstop prospect Alcides Escobar. Yet, one rival executive says that Hardy is not even available.

There have been some people in AN that have written in the past that they would like to see Hardy coming our way, so I added this for that reason. But now it seems like Furcal could be coming our way via FA and a lot of ANers like him too. I personally would like to add Hardy, younger with some pop. For who? Well, not any of the studs that will one day be in the A’s rotation. Thoughts??

Anything is better than BC at SS.
Adios from FL.

Shortstop J.J. Hardy also could be dangled for pitching help but so far is drawing only nibbles.

I know he is young but from what I saw last year I think we got the best of this deal. I hope we are able to sign Holliday to a long term contract but even if we don’t I think the prospects/picks will make up for it. I am not sold on Carlos being an allstar level talent, (no plate discipline). In BB we trust!!!

I probably should get over that.

I was thinking about Gonzalez (problably more than I should admit) and what we might be letting go. Beane has been praised for trading a player at the right time, but this is clearly different in that Gonzalez hasn’t been around long enough to become a fan favorite (unless you’re a girl, I suppose).

Speaking of, for all the fan favorites that we’ve seen leave Oakland, we can’t seem to rid ourselves of the one guy who is anything but a favorite (even if you’re a girl).

Yikes, I think I have reached my quota for sexist comments for the year my life.

but only because the poll asked for an initial reaction. As I’ve read summaries of Gonzalez’ performance so far and projections based on that performance, I’ve come around, and am excited to see Holliday in an A’s uniform next season.

And, what it all comes down to is ticket sales and regional popularity. Carlos was one of the main reasons I watched the A’s last season, along with Suzuki, Ryan Sweeney and some of the pitchers. But while I’m more casual a fan than many on here, I’m also more dedicated a fan than your average bay area resident.

I think that if the A’s go the path that’s being speculated upon here, i.e. adding a couple of more FAs and going for it in ’09, people like me (and those more casual) will buy more tickets.

So, after an initial NO, …. YES!

But that was mostly because my eyes focused in on the name “Greg Smith.” I didn’t care who we were getting in return for him, I don’t want to see him go! Now that I have had a couple of days to get use to the information, I am very happy about this trade. I am still hesitating to tell a friend of mine about the Huston Street part of this deal. I want to see an actual press release before I break the news to her. I want to be SURE it is official before I go and break her heart. I don’t think she even knows who Holliday is, all she cares about is Huston and this will crush her!

As for the “Crosby Effect,” did you really think you would get away with talking like this about my boy without me chiming in? Look, I understand that he isn’t the greatest SS to ever grace the field. And I can admit that he hasn’t lived up to MOST of AN’s expectations of him. But we have also seen a lot worse. There are several people on our CURRENT roster who have made me want to pull the hair right out of my head on a number of occasions. And yes, I admit, there have been a few times when I have heald my breath hoping he wouldn’t throw the ball into outer space when trying to rush a throw to first. And there have been a number of times when I have screamed at the TV “BOBBY!!! WTF!??! Why are you swinging at that pitch!! HAVE YOU LEARNED NOTHING!?!” I can understand the frustration, completely! But can we just cut him a little bit of slack, just for the off season? Please? IF/When Billy trades my boy away, you will all be jumping for joy, and I will understand your excitement. But I will NOT be celebrating with you. No matter who we get in return, that will not be a good day in my baseball world. So to hear all of you shout to the roof tops how much you want his ass shipped off to Egypt, gets very exhausting for me. I get it, I do! There are a couple of players that I feel the same way about. All I am asking is that we chill out just a bit on Crosby. Until he is shipped off, he is still on our team, he is one of us, and I love him!

The thing is, the minimum value that a player can have is replacement value. If Gonzalez projects to be, say, average, but with a large uncertainty, then you might imagine the following possibilities:

>5.5 WAR (superstar) 5%
>4.5 WAR (star) 10%
>3.5 WAR (above-average) 25%
>2.5 WAR (average) 50%
>1.5 WAR (below average) 75%
>0.0 WAR (bust) 95%

This, illustratively, can be considered the CarGo we acquired. In this situation, he could be equally likely to be above or below average. But since he has some possibility of becoming a star, a weighted average might be something like 2.67 WAR.

Now, with an extra year of data, we are less uncertain about how CarGo projects. The data suggest that he is less likely to be a star or superstar. So now imagine the distribution of possible outcomes looks like this:

>5.5 WAR (superstar) 0%
>4.5 WAR (star) 7%
>3.5 WAR (above-average) 20%
>2.5 WAR (average) 50%
>1.5 WAR (below average) 75%
>0.0 WAR (bust) 95%

So even if his projection remains the same, even if he is as likely to be above average as below average, the decrease in uncertainty changes the weighted mean to 2.47 WAR because we more certain that he will be average to above-average and more certain that he is not as likely to be a star or superstar.

So, if this is the A’s thinking, then Gonzalez is not as valuable to them today as he was when he was acquired. The more he plays, the more certain his projection going forward becomes, and the more sense it makes to extract his value now since additional certainty will only hurt his value.

The other thing: Aaron Cunningham (this is for you PT). I don’t know if this has been addressed in the 2000+ comments on the Holliday thread previously, but:

Cunningham is six months younger than Gonzalez and has a 311/384/496 minor league line compared to .286/.340/.473 for Gonzalez. Cunningham has also sustained his success through the high minors while Gonzalez had most of his success in the low minors. I would not be shocked if the A’s brass considered Aaron Cunningham to make uber-prospect CarGon expendable. He’s less likely to be a superstar, yes, but one could make the argument that he’s more likely to be an above-average player. It’s hard to fathom, and Gonzalez certainly has the potential to be the much better player, but this may have been key to Oakland’s thinking.

The 80 comment game threads was a hit to the gut. Makes me sick. Oh, and according the the updated-before-real-life Wikipedia, Matt Holliday already has a nickname.

Big Daddy.

if it works out well, thumbs up to billy beane.

if it goes bad, it’s all bobby crosby’s fault.

seems fair to me

Its a doubtful ,at best, outcome in my opinion.

but they will be inflated by playing in Colorado. I hope Oakland fans have the common sense to realize that more than likely CarGon will explode in Colorado, but his numbers will be sooooo greatly inflated because of where he plays, not because he is that great. I hope we don’t jump down BB’s throat when this happens.

NSFW

Just got an email from the A’s about it.

Nothing we didn’t already know, although it destroys all my hopes for either Street staying or us picking up a spare part to go along.

for the money he wants ( >$15,000,000 right?), there must be better options.

somebody mentioned cargon’s numbers being inflated by playing in colorado, and holliday’s away numbers were a bit of a dropoff from at home. he’s a great player and i love this trade, but i love it under the assumption that we’ll either be contenders this year and have 2 compensatory picks after he signs elsewhere, or that we’ll bring in a bunch of top-notch prospects/players and maybe some picks around the deadline this summer. i really do think we’ll contend, with holliday and cust combining for 70-80 home runs. if we sign another bat, or chavez is finally healthy, or one of the young guys makes a big jump over the winter, things will be looking really good. i think holliday is going to have a monster year because everybody has monster years when they’re up for a new deal.

Part of me just want the A’s to fill all their non-Crosby related needs this off-season so that the pressure is really on him and then I can really get into my hate groove.

Think of all those priceless quotes, such as “ZOMG We’d be in 1st if Crosby could hit a ****ing SAC FLY.”

Quoth schmifty, May 11 2008 in-game thread:

What’s up with the weird facial hair?
Looks like a reverse-Crosby or a Swish Lite.

linky

Basically, he says that the three players the A’s gave up are of the caliber of player that would normally be traded by a non-contender at the deadline, not in the middle of November.

should be interesting, depending on which of Smith/Carlos/Huston are still on the Rockies at that time.

As recapped in these threads: here and here

Coors field cheering the first of two Holliday bombs (I think this one went out to right center near the bullpens).

OH NOES, HE STRICKSOUT TOO MUCH

Holliday’s second bomb that night was a slam. BTW, PurpleRow voted this game as their game of the year (as it should’ve been).

Link

The article mentions that 75% of Rockies’ fans polled felt that they did not get enough in return for Holliday. While I would be interested in seeing the parameters of the survey and see if the numbers are reliable, I was a little surprised to see this. On our side of the trade, I’ve seen lamentations of losing Gonzalez and I’ve seen acknowledgments that the A’s had to give up something good to bag a guy like Holliday, but I have not seen anybody suggesting Billy fleeced O’Dowd. And you’d figure we’d be the ones first and foremost to make such a claim…

through some weird three-way trade scenario that I’m surprised to be the only one to realize it.

Yung Chi claimed off waivers from Seattle, what a deal

Angels might be done with K-Rod. Like, Arte Moreno said it kind of done.

"Believe it or not, we really spent a lot of time and effort trying to re-sign Frankie. In fact, I think there were six different offers on the table, at different times. At about this time last year, we thought we had him signed. Rivera got the three-year, $45-million deal from the Yankees. I was at the owners’ meetings in Florida last year where Tony felt that we had him signed. We had an agreement and he didn’t sign it.

“I think as a whole, we’re probably turning the page on this one. I think that we as an organization made this decision. And I’m not one of these ‘never, never’ people. I’m saying, I think as a whole, it’s important to turn the page and move forward, and get prepared to do some of the other things we want to do.”

source

Butbutbutbutbut he’s gonna blow more saves next year, and K-Rod being resigned means less chance of slegnA keeping Teixeira/extending Fugly Lackey beyond 2009/getting CC/some other kind of offensive threat to the A’s. Not cool.

Well, schmifty, enjoy him on your Mets (aka hope that the new Phillies FO fucks the team up, which they are perfectly capable of doing). Or Brian Sabean signs him lolololol.

since they’ll probably post a link to the interview online, but here are my notes from the Holliday-on-KNBR interview:

R Barbieri:
“He’s not going to be playing in front of huge crowds”
“He’s about the only guy you’d go there to see”

T:
I don’t know if you have a marquee player, how many people will go out to see him if the team is not good
Most cities would sell more tickets with a good team minus a marquee player

RB:
How many butts did Bonds put in the seats?

T:
Quite a few, but they had a good team for a while there.

T:
Holliday is not Bonds, not Manny, doesn’t have the dreads, doesn’t do the quirky stuff, solid guy, bat .300, 25-35 HR….I’d like to see them sign him. Look how many young guys they got, can keep costs down.
It’s not often you get a legitimate MVP type hitter in the middle of the lineup; if you can get that guy you have to keep that guy

(MH comes on)
(talk about Stillwater, OK state, NC state, his dad)

RB:
Just got off the phone with Beane; we’re hoping you become a Giant
MH:
One team at a time…trying to get used to the idea of moving again, convincing kids that they have to wear their A’s hats
RB:
Did you have to approve it
MH:
No, I’m a 5 year player, I have no rights, I had no say, not that I would’ve said either way
T:
Surprised?
MH: Expecting trade, a little suprised by the A’s, typically don’t trade for players who make as much as I…excited, A’s history, McGwire is a favorite
T:
Affect mindset, going to a team…don’t know if they’ll re-sign you or negotiate, how does that affect mindset?
MH:
Being a competitive athlete, doing best I can, being competitive, I keep it simple, wife/2 kids very important, go out, do my best, come home, do my best, don’t think that far in the future. In SoCal, training for next season, hope to put together a great season.
RB:
Must’ve been an incredible year 2007, Rockies exciting, 21 game winning streak (?)
MH:
Yes, it was exciting, till WS, in Rockies organization through minors, great to make that kind of run with some of your best friends
T:
Are you still positive you touched home plate against the Padres?
MH:
Doesn’t matter; McClelland thought I did
T:
Looked woozy
MH:
(walks through play, claims less-than-optimal technique)

RB:
Humidor — accuses Rockies of cheating with baseballs
MH:
Jokes about pushing for separate bags of balls
Says Coors plays pretty fair; he’s sick of hearing about the Coors Effect
Didn’t play pre-Humidor so doesn’t know about that but is excited to get a chance to prove that he hits well elsewhere
T:
Says they play “semi-normal” games there now, legitimizes the park, uses MVP candidacy as evidence that park is considered legitimate
MH:
Good point, says Coors is down the list a ways in terms of home runs, #5 or so, says Rockies hitters should get more credit
There are a handful of parks that are much better to hit HRs in
Any team has better home stats – cites familiarity
RB:
Good friends with McGwire; he’s a recluse, a victim of his own congressional experience, would he be better off if he just admitted he did steroids?
MH:
Never talked to him about it, can’t speak for him, he’s a grown man, great person, he’s been a good friend to me, tons of hitting advice, he loves what he’s doing, family man, playing lots of golf, he’s not upset or disliking his life.
RB:
We admire your game, saw you in the AS game, you’ll be an asset, A’s are lucky to have you, keep in touch.

RB/T: (jealousy talk wrt Giants gonna get nothing, A’s got Holliday)

I just hope that they get him more protection in the lineup besides Cust. It’s so frustrating to wait 3 innings for the MAN to come up and then they feed him changeups in the dirt.

i thought it was Gio Gonzalez and i was estatic then i heard on here it was Cargo and i was sad but still i like it as long as we resighn him

Crosby has always been one of my favorite players, but he is nothing more than average and most likely won’t get any better. Hopefully one of our specs will step up this year at that position…