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A couple of random thoughts

Ive Been thinking about the A's recently, while watching the playoffs, and I had a bunch of random thoughts.

1. Daric Barton aint dead yet

Ok, he had a terrible year. But there is precedent for a bounceback. At the beginning of last year, the Toronto Blue Jays' to prospect was Adam Lind, a left handed hitter who the year before had blazed through the minor leagues and had a successful cup of coffee with the big league team, hitting .367. There was a every reason to think that he'd do well. He didnt. He batted .238 on the year, going on a hot streak towards the end to lift it that high. He did show a little bit of power, (11 HR's), but otherwise, it was pretty bad. This year though, he seems to have bounced back, hitting .282 with 9 HR's in 326 AB's, after a little bit of a struggle early on. So, yes, Barton had a bad year, but I think there's precedent for a bounceback. And after all, there were plenty of encouraging signs if you looked for them. He had 65 walks, saw a lot of pitches, did well towards the end, and let's remember, hes only 23.

2. Trade for Alex Gordon

The A's farm system right now is deep at pretty much every position except 3B. Eric Chavez does not appear to be the answer next year. We need a young 3B who can play there when Chavez is on the DL. In other words, we need an everyday 3B. Jeff Baisely does not look like the answer there, as he seems like more of a bench bat. Jack Hannahan didnt do well in his trial. So I think the A's should go after ALex Gordon. Formerly the top prospect in baseball, Gordon has not exactly performed up to expectations for the last two years, but is worth a gamble, as there are encouraging signs all over, from his patience at the plate (66 BB's), to his doubles which could turn into HR's (35 this year, in 493 AB's), to his age (24). So would the Royals give up on their former to prospect? It's not as crazy as it seems. The Royals' top hitting prospect is Mike Moustakas, who has been switched from SS to 3B, which does not indicate that they're so happy with Gordon. They can't move Gordon to 1B, because they have just drafted Eric Hosmer. It seems that Gordon does not exactly fit in the Royal's long term plans. So what would the Royals be looking for in exchange for Gordon? With the departure of Miguel Olivo, the Royals are in need of a catcher, and being that they're thr Royals, they'll take whatever they can get in other areas. This will require some creativity, as Kurt Suzuki is not tradeable, Rob Bowen doesn't exactly make GM's salivate, and Josh Donaldson wouldn't be MLB ready. What we do have, however, is a bevy of left handed starting pitchers, an OF logjam, and a capable closer we could use for trade bait. The Royals have Joakim Soria, so they don't need Street, but they could flip him to a team that has catchers. So, were I to be Beane, I try sending Gio Gonzalez, Huston Street, and Matt Murton to Kansas City for Alex Gordon. The Royals then move Mark Teahen back to his original position, third base, and put Murton in the OF. Then they flip Street to the Rangers for Jarod Saltamachia, one of teh Rangers surplus of catchers and a guy Royals GM Dayton Moore has liked since he worked in Atlanta. The Royals basically upgrade their offense with Salty and Murton, and their rotation with Gio, for their 3B they gave up on. The A's in turn, get an everyday third baseman who can contribute to their great young core, and the Rangers get a good closer for an excess catcher. I think it might work.

3. Sell high on Ryan Sweeney

Yes, I understand that hes big, hunky and the girls love him. But he's a guy limited to a corner OF position who projects to hit maybe .290 with 10-15 HR's a year. That's not a playoff-caliber starting outfielder. That's a fourth outfielder, maybe. Thing is, a lot of teams will overvalue him, because he's huge and just looks like he has 30 HR's locked in him. But he doesn't. Beane should try and swing a trade to net a good young infielder. Maybe to the dodgers for Ivan DeJesus Jr., its not like we're giving up Ryne Sandberg for him...

 

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Sweeney is only a few months older than Barton

I can’t make the argument that the A’s should be patient with Barton, without also making the same for Sweeney.

by OaklandSi on Oct 4, 2008 8:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

barton has a minor league track record

of what is expected in the major leagues of him. hes hit .300/.400/.500. Sweeney on the other hand, has not

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft

by harendaman365 on Oct 4, 2008 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Alex Gordon is not a viable third baseman

He’d do nothing more than add to the 1B/DH logjam. Unless KC is selling him for pennies on the dollar, he’s not worth getting. And Gio/Street/Murton is more like Euros on the dollar.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 4, 2008 8:36 PM PDT reply actions  

its not like hes Ryan Braun out there

yes, hed be a step down from prime Chavez. But i think hed be a good 3B, whose hitting could make up for not being a great defensive 3B.

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft

by harendaman365 on Oct 4, 2008 9:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Actually, he pretty much is Ryan Braun out there

Maybe not quite that bad, but he was the worst in the league this year according to Offense Plus Defense and second-worst (behind Melvin Mora) by RZR.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 4, 2008 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

So dont give up on Barton

But give up on Sweeney? That doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense, and neither does that trade with the Royals, way too early to give up on Gio either. And I doubt if the Royals were looking to acquire Huston Street, that they would immediately flip him after getting him. Its one thing if its a three team deal but another if the Royals and Rangers do a completely seperate trade..

by pbra17 on Oct 4, 2008 8:42 PM PDT reply actions  

its not that id be giving up

on Gio. Its that we have a whole load of Lefty starters, with Anderson, Outman, Smith, Eveland, etc. Of all those, I think Gio is the one who would get the most value, while not necessarily being the best. I think Outman and Anderson are certainly better than Gio, with Eveland and Smith being pretty good.

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft

by harendaman365 on Oct 4, 2008 9:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

also the royals would not be looking to acquire street

they would only get him to flip to the rangers, in my scenario.

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft

by harendaman365 on Oct 4, 2008 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

to flip him to the rangers

for Jarod Saltamacchia. I cleaaarly said this…

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft

by harendaman365 on Oct 5, 2008 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Just curious

Has anyone heard/read/seen a KC source that suggests the Royals might be shopping Gordon?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 5, 2008 12:02 AM PDT reply actions  

I think I remember reading everyone but Soria and Greinke (maybe one other player too) being up for grabs, hence they may be shopping Gordon.

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by iamawesomer on Oct 5, 2008 1:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Moustakas is at least a year away. Why trade Gordon now when his value is at its lowest?

[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 5, 2008 1:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

they still have Teahen

who can keep it warm for Moustakas.

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft

by harendaman365 on Oct 5, 2008 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Another "precedent" to add

would be Yadier Molina. He was TERRIBLE in ‘06, and not that good in ’05, but the last two years he’s started to hit like a man. I really do think that Barton will be a better than he looked this year, but I don’t think he’s going to be an elite 1b. I think he has the possibility of hitting .290/.375/.430 with around 15 HR a year. He will probably be a nice piece to have, but not one that will ever carry an offense.

'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long

by DyeLongJustice on Oct 5, 2008 10:14 AM PDT reply actions  

agreed

however, I believe that Barton can put up a bit better numbers than that. Not superstar, but a bit more solid average, but who knows?
Also, why is it assumed that Baisley is in no way the answer? He came up to the big leagues, went hitless in his first 12 at bats and still hit .256. Had he not gone hitless in his last two, those numbers would have been .297/.366.324. Again, small sample size, but assuming we don’t find anyone on the free agent market and the trade market is asking for too much, I believe that if we gave Hannahan the chance for over a year, doesn’t Baisley get the same? I mean, they are similar with the glove, and he is clearly an upgrade on offense. Not saying he is going to turn into an everyday guy his entire career, but I think he’s worth a shot.

by stranahanahan on Oct 5, 2008 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

.324 slugging

is in no way a starting thirdbaseman. Yes, i think hes a good line drive hitter. but you need at least a .400 or some other unique skill to carry third base

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft

by harendaman365 on Oct 5, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

Right, it's not premature to judge Baisley on 43 at-bats

Those numbers tell us nothing. Either way. A couple of weeks is not useful at all in identifying whether a player is big-league caliber.

The correct stats to use are his AAA numbers: .298/.374/.478. There’s no lack of power in his game. The question is whether he will hit for a sufficiently high average.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 5, 2008 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

his minor league career slugging is .462

the problem is he’s only had two seasons where he’s had more than 400 at bats, one was pretty decent (‘06), and one was mediocre (’07). He’s also had two other half seasons where he’s been mediocre again (‘05) and good (’08). So total, thats 1 and 1/2 mediocre seasons, and 1 and 1/2 decent/good seasons. I can’t say for sure where his true talent level lies, but I can say that his age (26 next season) is starting to get a little high to be playing in the minor leagues. If we are truly going to give him a shot, it better be next year. If we could find a proven 3b on the market via FA or Trade, I think you do that, but in lieu of that, I wouldn’t mind giving Baisley a shot for half a season (300 AB) to see what happens. He could be good, but again, there is not enough minor league track record to warrant relying on him for a full season, unless you want to risk having Jack Hannahan reincarnated, and lord knows I don’t.

'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long

by DyeLongJustice on Oct 5, 2008 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

ok i did not know about his minor league stats

but even so, a 26 year old in AAA is a bit old for his league. I mean, I don’t mean to knock on Baisely, but I don’t think hes an everyday third baseman. I think he’s a righthanded Hannahan, which I must say, is an oddly poetic doom sentence.

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft

by harendaman365 on Oct 5, 2008 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

There are such things as late bloomers

I wouldn’t write anyone off based on age alone. If they’re playing well, I’m looking at that first.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Oct 5, 2008 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's 25

and his track record in the minors is much better than Hannahan’s, when he’s been healthy.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 5, 2008 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

no way a right handed hannahan

hannahan minor league career stats: .272/.363/.394
baisley: .279/.356/.462
I actually didnt get to finish my last post by accident, but Baisley has 20 homer pop in his bat, if we could get 15-20 homers with .270/.350/.420 or better from Baisley next year, that is arguably better or close to any other option unless we gave up a prospect package or spent some money. i’m not saying he’s the answer but wouldn’t you like those numbers?

by stranahanahan on Oct 5, 2008 4:33 PM PDT reply actions  

suzuki

I stopped reading right after you uttered that Suzuki is not tradable. For a team that was 10 games below .500 and 20 games out of first, every player on this team is tradeable, as long as we get back equal or better value.

I somewhat agree with you on Barton but that’s because there is no one else behind him at 1B. We are not winning 90 games anytime soon, so we might as well continue the Barton experiment.

by batterbatter on Oct 5, 2008 8:54 PM PDT reply actions  

I have to disagree

True basically most everyone is tradable. But, with the young pitching we have and no highly rated catcher waiting in the wings I seriously doubt that BB would trade the one solid infielder he has. Suzuki has handled the pitching staff very well and this is only his second year, and first full year in the bigs. BB won’t trade away the core of the young talent or the Catcher who can handle them.

"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"

by Eastbayjim on Oct 6, 2008 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

not gonna win 90 games anytime soon?

i flat out disagree, see me this time next year and either laugh in my face or vice versa

by stranahanahan on Oct 6, 2008 1:07 AM PDT reply actions  

Next year?

Even the most optimistic of us doubt that the A’s will win 90 next year. If the A’s were to acquire Hardy, Rasmus, and Zimmerman and then sign Giambi (my fantasy offseason) then perhaps they could. Although if they do what I expect them to do (maybe sign Giambi, otherwise rebuild) then I don’t think the A’s will win 90 until 2010 at the earliest. Although if they do a mix of my fantasy and my expectation (i.e. trade for, say, Hardy), I could see them winning 85 next year and proving that they will win 90 sometime soon.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Oct 6, 2008 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't think they're as far as all that

Not a 90-win team as is, but not too far away. Two bats/improvements on the infield and they’re there, IMO, and with any luck Chavez will be one.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 6, 2008 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

I tend to agree.

Barring some unforeseen monster moves this winter, I can see 85+/- wins, and possibly as many as 90, but not likely.

"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds

by UncleLeo on Oct 6, 2008 7:18 PM PDT reply actions  

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