Separating wheat from chaff: A plan for 2009
by sardonic on Oct 30, 2008 5:41 PM PDT
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PrintAs much as I'd love the A's to contend next season, I think long term the A's window really opens in 2010. Consequently, I'm really curious as to how the A's sort things out next year, because I think they have some pretty decent pieces. They almost certainly have some good pieces among all their young guys, but identifying the right ones and giving them playing time will be challenging.
For 1B/corner OF we have Daric Barton, Jack Cust, Travis Buck, Ryan Sweeney, Eric Chavez's corpse, Matt Murton and, on the horizon, Sean Doolittle and Chris Carter. Plus anyone who loses the CF battle.
For CF we have Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Sweeney, Chris Denorfia and Aaron Cunningham.
All those guys seem servicable enough at least, and between all of them there's probably an above average OF, 1B and DH situation.
Between the rest of the regulars, they are probably average-ish between 2B (good), SS (not terrible), 3B (terrible-ish) and C (good).
We have great pitching talent and potential. So if they can sort out the OF/1B situation and their young pitchers develop/weed out the crappy ones, we could contend for a division in 2010 and be scrappy next season.
So how do you guys see the battles playing out by 2010? This how I see it:
1B Daric Barton
3B Adrian Cardenas
LF Aaron Cunningham
CF Ryan Sweeney
RF Carlos Gonzalez
DH Travis Buck
Obviously this ignores any FA signings or trades, but I think this captures what the internal talent base we already control is.
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Why does everyone see Cardenas as a 3rd baseman?
I am a huge Cardenas fan but he profiles as an above average bat for a 2nd baseman. If moved to 3rd he would be considered below average offensively.
Let him get another 1/2 to full season in AA and taste AAA in 09. With Ellis locked up till 2010 he can get AAA experience in 2010 and maybe move Ellis at the deadline to bring him up.
But I would give him every chance I could to stick there.
If he can’t, obviously you move him to second, then third, so you can figure out how to keep him in a place where his bat will look the best for the position.
"Camelot sure fell apart, didn't it?"-Steve McCatty
BA thought he'd end up at 3B since he lacks the range for SS and the DP skills for 2B
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 1, 2008 7:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Because we need a 3B
It would be ideal if he was not our best 3B option in 2010, but he’s probably the best option for 3B we have currently in the system. Like I said, there will be some trades and some signings, but my main point was to look at the talent currently in the A’s system to see how far away we are.
If he's our best 3b option ...
we should shell out $3-4m and get someone who can produce comparable offensive numbers while not wasting a 2b glove at 3b …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Eh, if the reports we've heard are not wrong, I think he'll be as good or better defensively at third as at second
and I mean that after you adjust for the value of the position. His defensive strengths (good hands, strong arm) seem like they will play better on the left side. From what I’ve heard, his primary weakness is lateral range.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
he can start the Derek Jeter workout! apparently thats what made him better defensively this year, lol
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 1, 2008 8:04 PM PDT up reply actions
The reason why Cardenas is considered a top prospect
is that he’s considered to have a lot of projectable power; ie he’ll start hitting more home runs once he grows into his frame.
He resembles Ian Kinsler in a lot of ways offensively. Kinsler wasn’t a big HR guy until he reached his mid-20s. That’s the key to his value, and if he does grow into that additional power, with his contact and plate discipline skills, he should be a more than adequate offensive 3B.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
but i'd still want him at SS if possible
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Oct 30, 2008 8:28 PM PDT up reply actions
That's another possibility.
I basically think the A’s are gonna have to fill at least one out of SS/3B from outside the org by 2010 to be a contending team. That’s the one place I don’t think they have the talent right now. I’m hoping Cardenas can fill one of the spots.
I agree - Cardenas
will fill 0-1 of those spots, and from there it’s bleak. The A’s need to do a better job of developing or bringing in players at those two positions.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
not that your agruing
but good SS in baseballs current state of affairs are extremely hard to come by. It’s pretty much Hanley Ramirez, JJ Hardy, Jimmy Rollins…and then a lot of meh and then even more yuk. Of course, I’m going to be crucified for saying that, and I’m sure there will be (randomly) exceptional players outside of those four next year, but really there isn’t anything special on the market at that position nowadays. Third base, on the other hand, has more FA possibilities that can better contribute to your teams winning percentage…well of course unless your SS is BoCro, then any lukewarm body is probably going to significantly upgrade your team.
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Oct 30, 2008 8:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah
Basically in 2009 as long as we figure out who the right OF/1B/DH are, we should be set at those positions. That’s why I wouldn’t focus on contending next season. We MIGHT luck into the right arrangement of guys at the beginning of the season, but I think it’s more likely toward the end, when guys like Cunningham and CarGo have had more of a chance to develop.
So 2009 goals:
1) Sort out OF/1B/DH
2) Find a SS/3B either via trade or hope someone breaks out (Cardenas? Pennington?)
3) Pitchers develop
If everything breaks right we could have 2005, but I’m more hoping that 2010 is more like 2006 and, well, 2011-12 isn’t as much like 2007-08.
you only listed 3 SS but said four (unless I'm missing something)
I’m just going to assume the 4th you forgot to write down was Jose Reyes.
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by iamawesomer on Oct 30, 2008 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions
yaya my bad...statistics and math? who uses that anyways?!
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Oct 30, 2008 10:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Yunel Escobar, too
Weird how virtually every top shortstop in baseball is in one division.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
And they're no longer all in the AL
Remember when it was A-Rod, Tejada, Nomar, Jeter and then everyone else…
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
i have a hard time remembering how good nomar used to be
it was so long ago. and i remember that sox-cubs trade was HUGE at the time…how the mighty have fallen
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Oct 31, 2008 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Of course, if he can play SS, he will play SS ...
it would be positively idiotic to do anything else.
Of course, there is almost no chance that he can stick at SS.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Just curious because I have read this argued before on AN.
If Cardenas can stick at second base, and he has the arm to play 3rd, would he then be able to stick at SS. The area he has to cover is the same as second base and his arm would allow him to make the throw from SS.
Eveland rocks! Eveland rocks! Somewhere Drew Carey just smiled.
Far more balls are hit to the SS ...
they also tend to be harder hit than balls to the second baseman — so you want a player with better range and a better glove there. Average defense at shortstop, while, perhaps not requiring truly unique skills from a second baseman, aside from the superior arm, represents a much higher level of play.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Kinsler hit 51 2B in a minor league season and had a career .499 minor league SLG
Cardenas hit 16 2B last year and has a career .413 minor league SLG. Cardenas was younger at each stop which is a point in his favor, but how exactly does he resemble Kinsler?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 1, 2008 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm assuming the comparison is based on their height and build
(and their position, obviously…)
Take it with a grain of salt, of course.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I don't agree
I see:
1B Daric Barton
3B Enormous Gaping Hole of Shitty Production (aka, free agent please)
LF Aaron Cunningham
CF Carlos Gonzalez
RF Travis Buck
DH Jack Cust
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I also see the EGHoSP at SS
I think Baisley might be able to handle third. I wish he would’ve gotten more of a chance/been healthy this year.
by thejd44 on Oct 31, 2008 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Yep... EGHoSP has the range of many Ellises
I was just using his chart from the post which somehow omitted Jack “the only reliable >800 OPS on the team” Cust.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Well
It’s mostly because Cust will be 31 and entering his 5th year of service time at the beginning of the 2010 season — we’ve probably already seen his peak, not that 31 is particularly old. But Cust does have old player skills, and probably won’t age as well.
I see Cust as about a true talent .800-.850 OPS right now, but when you factor in potential age related decline and the fact that I would hope Travis Buck, Ryan Sweeney, CarGo, Cunningham and Barton will all outhit an .800 OPS by 2010 while adding a lot more defensive flexibility and baserunning, being cheaper and having more of a future with the organization, I would hope that Cust is not still our DH in two seasons. .
Trade Cust NOW!!!
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Oct 31, 2008 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions
He's still horridly undervalued.
You’re talking about a guy who, I believe, could run well head-to-head with Ryan Howard. Just look at their stats over the last two years, they’re pretty comparable. Do you see Jack Cust getting the return of Ryan Howard?
He probably never will, and that’s why the A’s should keep him as long as he maintains production. He’s still the A’s best hitter….
by VORP is too nerdy on Oct 31, 2008 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions
or Ryan Howard is overrated...
I personally believe that its a mix of both. Cust isn’t viewed as a premier slugger, and Howard is. However, Howard really isn’t all that great (though he is good) and same goes for Cust.
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Oct 31, 2008 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions
There's still a difference though
Cust is underrated and Howard is overrated, but Howard is still significantly better than Cust.
Howard 2008 VORP: 35.3
Cust 2008 VORP: 30.1
Howard 2007 VORP: 53.6
Cust 2007 VORP: 32.6
Over the past two seasons since Cust became a regular, Howard has been about 25 runs better, which is about 2.5 wins. That’s actually less than I thought, but Howard is also almost a year younger than Cust despite having had a much longer career. That’s also leaving off Howard’s monster 81 VORP 2006, when he won the MVP — Cust hasn’t shown any ability to hit like that and Howard has.
But my biggest point isn’t that Cust isn’t good — I think he’s a pretty good DH, and I agree that he’s probably the A’s best hitter. I just think/hope that other guys, taking into account offense, baserunning, defense and flexibility will be better options for us by 2010. Especially since at least some of our young players will get better and Cust would be expected to get a bit worse.
Or
To put it simply:
Howard career OPS: .970
Cust career OPS: .857
Even taking into account parks and whatnot, Cust has been a really good hitter — 31% better than league average. But Howard has been 43% better, and that last 10% is significant.
So far, Howard has been better
but his career is trending in the wrong direction. He went from a 20 VORP over Cust two seasons (Cust’s first full season of ABs) ago to a 5 VORP advantage last season, according to you. 5 VORP isn’t really that much more added value, is it? If Howard can actually get better, and not worse, I will readily say he is the better player next season, but I really am not sure that he has much advantage next season.
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Oct 31, 2008 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Sorry ...
“Taking into account parks and whatnot” Cust has been the better hitter in every year except 2006:
OPS+ (08, 07, Career):
Cust 132, 147, 131
Howard 124, 144, 143
BRAA (08, 07):
Cust 31, 37
Howard 24,39
Keep in mind, though, that BRAA is a counting stat and Howard had an extra 240+ PAs over those two years. So, while it looks close by this measure, it really isn’t.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
I think it's safe to assume at this point that 2006 may have been a fluke.
I haven’t looked at all of the peripherals (BABIP), but he hit a lot higher than he has throughout his career (.313 compared to .279). Also, he’s only put up BA’s of .251 and .268 since then, so I think it’s pretty safe to assume that Howard won’t be a perennial .300 hitter.
You cite VORP is 2007, but the problem with VORP is that it depends largely on plate apearances. Ryan Howard had a lot more plate appearances in 2007 than Jack Cust (648 to 507). In addition, I don’t believe VORP is a park-adjusted stat. Hitting in the NL in Philadelphia is a lot easier than hitting in Oakland. That’s going to inflate his VORP.
If you look at BTruns (which is a league and park-adjusted stat similar to runs created), you get a little better picture of both hitters. Howard put up BTruns of 36.9 in 2007 and 19.2 in 2008. Jack Cust put up BTruns of 33.0 and 25.9… despite having more than 100 fewer PA’s than Howard both years.
So, going into 2009 at least, I think it’s pretty safe to bet that Jack Cust will be the better hitter.
by VORP is too nerdy on Nov 1, 2008 4:48 AM PDT up reply actions
VORP is park adjusted.
the reason there’s the big discrepancy between how VORP and Batting Runs views Cust ‘s and Howard’s production time, is how they handle playing time.
VORP compares to a “replacement” player. Batting Runs compares to an average player. IIRC, VORP uses about 80% of positional average for all positions except catcher. Because of this, a comparison to “replacement” will penalise a player more for missing time.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Since my post wasn't' clear,
Batting Runs doesn’t compare to positional average. It compares to just a league average hitter, from all positions.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
His BABIP in 06 was .356 ...
well out of line with anything he has done since (.328 and .285)
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
It looks like mostly a drop in singles. Was the shift as pronounced
in 2006?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 1, 2008 7:25 PM PDT up reply actions
There was also a pretty severe drop in HRs ...
Normalized at 700 PAs
2006
97 singles
25 doubles
1 triple
58 homers
2007
75 singles
28 doubles
0 triples
51 homers
2008
75 singles
26 doubles
4 triples
48 homers
I don’t know about the shift …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
4 triples tho...he's chone figgins light...
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 1, 2008 9:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes, the HR was down, but I was responding to the BABIP comment.
I was thinking that if the shift wasn’t there in 2006 the BABIP might not ever come back. I thought HR was down league-wide. I’m not sure whether his HR+ (if there is such a thing) was actually down as much.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 2, 2008 5:47 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't disagree with anything you said ...
but the decrease in HRs would affect his BABIP too — since it is putting more balls in play and fly balls that don’t leave the park tend to get caught …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
You can't just arbitrarily dismiss 2006 as a fluke though.
It’s just as much a part of his performance record as 2008, his worst season in years. There might have been some fluke components to it, but similarly, he might have been flukily bad last season too. Unless you have a specific reason, you don’t just arbitrarily throw out part of your sample.
Taking out 2006 is like saying, “Other than when Howard has been way better than anything Cust has ever done, Cust has been better than Howard.”
I looked up both players’ 2009 THT projections:
Cust – .906 OPS, 557 PA
Howard – .996 OPS, 632 PA
Again, I’m not saying Cust is a bad hitter. I’m glad we had this discussion, because he’s even better than I thought — I’ve thought of him as a mid .800s OPS type, but he’s probably a bit better than that, as long as he’s in his prime. But taking into account the totality of Howard’s production, there’s no reason to believe that Cust projects to be a better hitter going forward.
Those projections are not park neutral ...
I’ll assume that both of those OPS’ will be distributed in the same manner as they were in 2008
Cust’s OPB = 44% of OPS, so .399 OBP, .507 Slg
Howard’s OBP = 38% of OPS, so .383 OBP, .613 Slg
If you figure the 2007 park adjusted OBPs and Slgs for Oakland and Philly remain the same and do a little math, you get OPS+s of:
Cust 147
Howard 149
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
This is what I get
THT projections by component
.401/.505 for Cust
.400/.596 for Howard
For OBP, CBP has a three year factor of 101 and the Net has 96; for SLG, it’s 103 to 95.
Cust Park Neutral OBP: .401 *1/ .98 = .409
Howard Park Neutral OBP: .400 * 1/1.005 = .398
Cust Park Neutral SLG: .505 * 1/.975 = .518
Howard Park Neutral SLG: .596*1/1.015 = .587
Cust Park Neutral OPS: .927
Howard Park Neutral OPS: .985
Those projections are ridiculously high
(Doesn’t seem to affect the differential between the two of them, mind you… just commenting. I’d knock probably 75 points off of both of them…)
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
They definitely seem high to me too.
I haven’t had a ton of time to look through them yet, but they feel high for those two. For what it’s worth, ZiPS has Cust projected at .387/.471 for a .858 OPS, which is more along the lines of what I would expect. I used THT though because Dave hasn’t released the Phillies projections yet. And also FWIW, our projections were as close as anyone last year.
Using those components ...
I now get OPS+s of 147 for Cust and 150 for Howard.
Where are you getting your park factors? The CBP seem too low, based on my general sense and b-ref’s numbers.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
I use the component spreadsheet
from MLB’s fantasy blog. What is your methodology for calculating OPS+. Just eyeballing it there’s about a 6% difference in park neutral OPS. Is the NL league offense minus pitching that much higher than the AL’s?
I will admit that the difference is smaller than I thought. I’m pretty surprised at Cust’s projection. He’s been great for the A’s the past two seasons, and hit well in AAA for the Padres in 2006, but in 2003-05, his age 24-26 seasons, was very non-descript in AAA, posting SLGs of .426, .433 and .438.
I will stick to my original point though. I don’t see him aging well, since he’s a player with “old player’s skills,” and gives you nothing with the glove or on the basepaths. He’s older than most people would think given his late start. In 2010, he should be starting the downside of his career at age 31
I think there is a chance that he is still the starting DH on a contending A’s team in 2010, but I would hope that someone like Buck would hit reasonably close to what Cust would give you, which, along with baserunning and flexibility, would make him a better option at DH.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/bat_glossary.shtml
Scroll down the page for the methodology.
Not that it affects your original point, but the same (in terms of aging) should be said of Howard …
Ultimately, though, Cust projects to be a solid power hitter with great on base skills over the next two years who can be had at a bargain basement price. He won’t fall off so quickly that any team in the league shouldn’t be able to find a spot for him …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Cust has 3 years, 2 days of service according to Cot's (Cot's says 2.002, but 2008 isn't included)
Also, Cust turns 30 in January.
Howard career EQA: .314
Cust career EQA: .312
Howard is marginally better.
by thejd44 on Nov 2, 2008 9:27 AM PST up reply actions
Right... 3.002 goes to 4.002 entering the 2010 season
which is thus his 5th year of service time.
It’s kind of annoying that the A’s could not have waited 3 additional days to trade for Cust, but I suppose he might have been on a plane to Hiroshima by then.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Oh, the problem was that I didn't read the full sentence
Or I didn’t see the 2010 or something. My mistake. I thought he was talking about next season.
by thejd44 on Nov 4, 2008 12:47 AM PST up reply actions
If Daric Barton remembers how to hit and can play 3b
It will significantly benefit this team. After all, it will cut our gaping holes from 2 to 1. And for the A’s to compete in 2010, they need to fix both 3b and SS this offseason.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
If Chavvy learns how to be healthy, it will significantly benefit the team also
but i’m not holding my breath
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Oct 31, 2008 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions
my 2010 guesses... minus FAs
C- Suzuki (Powell as backup)
DH/1B- Sean Doolittle/Daric Barton
2B- Ellis/ Cardenas
SS-Cardenas/ Pennington
3B- Chavez (hopefully a replacement will be here… but he’s still under contract)
LF- Buck
CF- Sweeney
RF- CarGon
4th OF- Cunningham
SP – Duke, Cahill, Anderson, Gio, Eveland
RP- Zeigler, Devine, Casilla, Brown, Smith, Carignan, Braden
I see this as Cust’s last year with the A’s… he’ll cost close to $10 mill in what would be his second arb-eligible year… too much for Adam Dunn jr. - perhaps we could use that $$ on an upgrade at 3B or SS. This will be Ellis’ last year and so Weeks can come up for a cup of coffee to prepare for taking over in 2011 (otherwise, we can excercise Ellis’ 2011 option).- I think it’s smartest to go year to year with arbitration due to his injury problems… but I think he’s way too good to trade (since the injury question would limit his value and he’s our only legit #1 starter).
I basically think it’s a tossup as to who gets an everyday job with the A’s between Carter and Doolittle. Doolittle looks like a better shot to be ready first… that’s why I picked him… though scouts seem to think Carter has more upside. We shall see. I’m obviously hoping Barton lives up to his potential in ‘09… otherwise he’ll go the route of Dan Johnson straight out the door.
And in relief… I’m hoping the A’s hold on to Street as their closer for the first half of ‘09 and let him build his value back up to sell high to a contender mid-season. I’m a big believer in Duke
Giambi was safe at the plate!!!!
First of all Sweeney plays in RF or LF and Cargon is CF and only in right when Davis is CF.
Otherwise I like your list except I would say you can replace Eveland with Mazzaro. Right now Mazzaro is just behind Cahill and Anderson and is only getting better. Also Duke is in his last year before FA, so he may be gone by 2010.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
There is no possibility that Cust will cost $10 million in 2010
Maybe half that.
Believe me, I’ve looked at a lot of arbitration awards. Guys past 30 with huge holes in their games do not get $10 million a year in arbitration awards.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I've a feeling he gets $10M after he hires you as his agent
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 1, 2008 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions
I wish he would hire me as his agent
He’d probably only get a couple mill, but the commission would still well exceed anything I’ve ever been paid before in my life…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
You'll never get the job with that attitude
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 1, 2008 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Too late
I’m already in talks with Jack Cust. I could’ve had him in the major leagues full time 5 years ago.
by VORP is too nerdy on Nov 1, 2008 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Did you really say SS was not terrible?
How much worse could it possibly be?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
Ask Baltimore or Seattle ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
I'd trade Crosby for Luis Hernandez straight up.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 2, 2008 5:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Crosby is a much better hitter.
That’s only a good trade because Hernandez saves you $5 million to sign a real major leaguer.
by thejd44 on Nov 2, 2008 9:29 AM PST up reply actions
Right... I mean, I'd do that trade and then immediately designate Hernandez for assignment...
It’s not really a “trade,” just a waiver claim in disguise.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Yeah, looking at it again
Crosby’s defense seems to have regressed a lot. I made that statement on the assumption that Crosby was still about +10 runs above average on defense, but it looks like he’s taken quite a step back. Chris Dial’s ZR based metric has him at just +1.9 for last season, and Sean Smith projects him at just +3 for 2009.
What I'm hoping for:
C – Suzuki
1B – Barton
2B – Ellis
SS – Hu
3B – Chavez/Cardenas
LF – Cust
CF – Gonzalez/Davis
RF – Buck/Cunningham
DH – Giambi/Abreu
Hu is one of the best minor league defensive SS and defense is the strength of the team at the moment. With Cahill, Ziegler and Mazzaro groundballers and Anderson, Gonzalez, Eveland, Smith and Blevins lefties they need a good defensive left side of the infield. I’m assuming Hu is going to be a lot easier to acquire than either of the Escobars or anyone else who’s going to provide outstanding defense with similar offensive upside.
I was really hoping for Dunn instead of Giambi/Abreu but Beane and Wolff’s comments about not getting a FA with an expensive long term deal made me lower my sights. They could use both Giambi and Abreu in 2009 with Barton getting some AAA time.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
Hu may be good in the field, but he was almost bizarrely bad offensively this year
He had an EqA of .160. That’s a hundred points below league average. A player who kept up that pace for a full season would be 60 runs below average, or as bad as Albert Pujols is good.
It’s hard to imagine he’s actually that bad, but I suspect there’s something wrong with his eyesight. I don’t really see how he’s an upgrade on Gregorio Petit.
(Meanwhile, how awesome would it be if the A’s had gotten DeJesus from the Dodgers last season?)
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I was thinking Hu's better defensively than Petit.
Hu was liked more in BA’s prospect defense ratings and Petit didn’t impress me that much in his brief major league stint on defense. Hu also was supposed to be better than Petit offensively before this year, but obviously that’s now out the window. That said I wouldn’t be averse to giving Petit and Pennington a shot. Competition is a good thing.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Nov 2, 2008 5:50 AM PDT up reply actions
If you're going to shoot someone
Please oh please aim for Crosby!
The monster at the end of this blog.
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