Five reasons why the A's should NOT trade for Matt Holliday
by Blicks on Oct 29, 2008 2:53 PM PDT
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PrintHi guys.
MMunoz23 said I should do a post on why the A's shouldn't trade for Holliday here. I thought it was a good idea. So here it is.I'm a twisted person. I don't want to see Holliday added, although it bolsters the offensive offense of the A's. I will keep it light on the stats. First fanpost, so if I'm doing it wrong, tell me.
1. The years. Holliday is a one year rental. I'm not saying the A's CAN'T compete in 2009, I'm just saying that upper level prospects are more likely to break into the bigs than the two guys we draft with our shiny draft picks we get when Holliday walks because they've found success at a level of professional ball, which most draft picks haven't. I would be for it ONLY if there were a guaranteed extension. But, Holliday isn't waiving any sort of NTC to be traded, and there is no way to guarantee an extension. Even if there were an extension, it would be in the 6/100 range, and I don't know if Holliday will be worth that.
And, the "butts in seats" argument. Yeah, its another player who's here for a short tenure and then is gone. If anything, it will alienate people further when the A's don't extend him.
And for those of you saying "trade Cust", please look at some stats. If you have an absolute bargain who produces well, you don't move him.
2. The pitching. First of all, the majority of the A's future rotation is still very young and in prospect stages. I will be willing to bank on at least one of the arms not panning out, as sad as it may sound. It is also outlandish to expect the pitching to be playoff caliber in 2009. Guys like Cahill and Anderson probably will need time in AAA before being ready to contribute. There is no way the A's will muster enough offense up this offseason to offset a bleh pitching staff. The staff HAS to be on par, and that may not be the case in 2009.
3. The infield. Face it. The A's could easily be going into next season with a sub-.700 OPS player at 3/4 infield positions. Having two big boppers in Holliday and Cust, and a potential big bopper in Chavez (although only marginally a "big bopper") won't be enough. You can't have a station to station offense, it gets shut down. Cust, Holliday, Suzuki, and whichever other two outfielders start next year can't carry an offense. Look at the teams that made the playoffs. They had at least decent (offensive) production from six positions, if not more. The A's might have four next year.
4. Displacement of one of the A's outfielders. Next year, you will see competition between Sweeney, Cunningham, Buck, and CarGon for three spots. Right now, the bulk of our offensive production is coming from the outfield and DH. Getting adequate offensive production from multiple spots can be more beneficial than just getting it from 1-2. Trading for Holliday and putting him at LF does nothing towards bolstering the infield. If the team is truly rebuilding, you play the outfielders and figure out who sticks, and who doesn't.
5. The prospects. Just because you have a deep farm system, doesn't mean that you trade it unless the trade is absolutely necessary. Two of Anderson, Cahill, Simmons, Mazarro, Carter, or Doolittle would have to be traded. On a team like the A's, it is HUGE to get adequate contributions from members of the farm system. More important situations will pop up, and the A's will have to dip into that reservoir known as the farm system to pull up members. Filling holes internally allows the A's to spend on that superstar.
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does this really require a new fanpost
just put it under the original one
must you bring up that sad, sad truth???
I’m depressed enough as it is!!!!
Awww… Unicorn's optimistic. And a cheeseball. That’s cute. ~Whiteshoes40
we will keep it going with MLB siignings and rumors...
I don’t like the idea of trading for Holiday because any trade involving Oakland acquiring a big bat for prospects, means the names Anderson and Cahill will most certainly come up!!
I would like to see Billy be creative and find other routes to fix the offense, besides giving away our top tier pitching chips…
"What do we do with Crosby? Well, in my neighborhood, trash goes out on Mondays." ~ Nico
I think that Anderson/Cahill should stay.
Patterson=gone, I still can’t figure out why we got murton, so I suppose we could get rid of him too, but not Anderson or Cahill please!!
I hope billy beane reads all of the stuff we write before he does any trades. Maybe then some of them won’t be so bad…
Awww… Unicorn's optimistic. And a cheeseball. That’s cute. ~Whiteshoes40
Makes sense to keep it here.
A very thoughtful and comprehensive post. Well done Blicks!
"RIP: UserID: 553"
I like Holliday a lot
I think his home/road splits tend to get blown out of proportion because while he plays in Coors, he also plays a lot in Petco, Chavez Ravine and the place where the Giants suit up.
Just for fun, outside of the NL West, Holliday has started 184 games/795 plate appearances…..so a little over a season’s worth of work, and Holliday hit .299/.370/.496. I think he could be counted on to produce roughly those slash stats anywhere for the next few years.
The problem is, while he’s a damn fine hitter, Holliday’s more comparable to Jason Bay than he is to Manny Ramirez, but the contract he gets will state otherwise.
It is interesting that Holliday quietly went 28 for 30 in steal attempts.
"This is Rickey, calling on behalf of Rickey."
by scatterbrian on Oct 30, 2008 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions
How about over priced?
The rockies are going to get many good players for him not just one or two so is he worth it. NO
The A’s wouldn’t trade for Bay so Holiday is out of the question.
Welcome
More quotes like this…
And for those of you saying “trade Cust”, please look at some stats. If you have an absolute bargain who produces well, you don’t move him.
…and you’re on the right track.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
A's Farm System
The further we got into the year and I looked at the A’s farm system, I realized something about it.
It really is a system of a vast quantity of good prospects, but few great prospects.
Anderson and Cahill, yes, I would consider pretty damn good. But outside of them, there are not many other great players in the making, only above average regulars with glaring flaws for whatever reason. Carter can’t play Defense, Cunningham is good at everything, but not great at anything, Doolittle and Cardenas floundered at AA, Corey Brown has Strike Outs, and so on. Pitching is the A’s minor league strength, but the A’s weakness in offense is staggering really. The offensive depth for the organization is bad enough that I find myself looking all the way to the bottom of the system for hope instead of the middle where the top prospects usually are. I look at Dixon and hope, I look at Leyja and hope, I look at Coleman and hope. But they are still at the stage where many prospects fail to even make it to the next level, and in a realistic sense, can not be counted on for that much right now, as even if they do well, they are many years away.
So as far as trading for a slugger goes, and no I don’t want Holliday, I find myself in somewhat of a quandry.
First, Cahil and Anderson are untouchable to me, but then again, teams will be asking for them. But even if we eliminate Cahill and Anderson, a trade for a big name will weaken the system a lot, and for a rebuilding team that is very dangerous. But on the flip side, would it seriously weaken the system that much seeing how few of the players we might end up dealing would be more than above average regulars in the Majors if they do indeed make it. We don’t have a Hanley Ramirez, a Miguel Cabrera, a Cody Rasmus, Matt Weiters, Jay Bruce, etc… in the system that we could lose and regret for years to come.
If we made a deal for a player and dealt several players who I believe to have their peak values right now with poor values going forward if kept, I would probably like the trade. Vin Mazzaro, Henry Rodriguez, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, and even Adrian Cardenas, except that we have such a big hole at Short Stop it might be better to keep him, Matt Spencer, and so on. But would other teams want these guys?
facepalm.jpg
I honestly thought that Murton meant the end of Emil Brown
and maybe a fourth outfielder type going into the next season…. but the A’s almost immediately sent him to AAA and kept him there. He’s had a track record (somewhat small) of success at the ML level.
by VORP is too nerdy on Oct 30, 2008 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions
I always thought of Travis Buck
as a slightly more talented, higher-ceiling Matt Murton. Both of them have put up fairly similar numbers, but Murton has bad more time in the show. I just don’t see why the A’s can’t find a place for Murton on the team. He’s a least worth a longer look than ~40 PA’s.
by VORP is too nerdy on Oct 30, 2008 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions
There you go, Murton can be the typing instructor to go along with Rajai as team barber
Make good use of those supernumerary outfielders. In this economy, he’ll probably just be happy to have a job.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Murton is 27
and is less valuable than 6 or 7 outfielders. That’s why they can’t find a place for him.
by thejd44 on Oct 30, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Well I suppose if he was offered, why not?
Isn’t he someone people have though hadn’t been given a fair shot in Chicago?
Yeah, I think he was more of a toss in
And it was worth it for the A’s to take him on for a while to see if he could turn things around. He couldn’t, and at this point I don’t think he’ll get much more than spring training to find his way onto the roster.
by thejd44 on Oct 30, 2008 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions
I still think he might be able to be a productive outfielder.
If he returns to his 2005-2007 production, he could be valuable to the A’s for at least the next couple of years while the younger players gain more experience. Who knows? He’s younger than Chris Denorfia, has more major league experience, and he has a better track record, at least offensively.
by VORP is too nerdy on Nov 1, 2008 6:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, if he returns to his 2005
production, he would be a good player. The problem seems to be that the power he had in 2005, is gone, and not coming back.
His 2006-2007 production makes him a cheap stopgap, a Dan Johnson type player.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Who believes that he hadn't been given a fair shot in Chicago?
He got 921 PAs from 2005-2007. And for all the people like to rag on Dusty Baker for hating young players, Baker gave hin 508 PAs in 2006.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Me too
And I was thrilled about it.
Damn DFA and his amazing DFA-resistant DNA.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
but now he's gone!!! DFA is now FA!!
Awww… Unicorn's optimistic. And a cheeseball. That’s cute. ~Whiteshoes40
Several months too late.
Now I don’t feel like celebrating it.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
How many hitters in the minors do not have glaring flaws?
I guess there’s Matt Wieters… that’s about the extent of it. Colby Rasmus just “floundered” at AAA for a season. Cameron Maybin strikes out too much. Matt LaPorta can’t play defense. These are TOP TEN PROSPECTS.
(I would add that Hanley Ramirez did not look like even a good player, much less a great one, in the minors.)
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
if a hitter literally floundered ...
… i.e., one eye migrated to the other side of his head, wouldn’t that be anatomically advantageous for tracking pitches?
Oh, if people only knew how frugal we are. @('.')@
if they migrated to his leeward side, he could just gauge pitch type and location by watching the catcher
Oh, if people only knew how frugal we are. @('.')@
you ever try holding a bat with tiny pectoral fins?
"This is Rickey, calling on behalf of Rickey."
by scatterbrian on Oct 30, 2008 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions
or did PT mean that Rasmus gained weight?
Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through AAA.
"This is Rickey, calling on behalf of Rickey."
by scatterbrian on Oct 30, 2008 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions
this is what you get
when you let jay payton go….
BB should send scounts to watch cricket players.
by alea iacta est on Oct 30, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions
NSOTM
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
there you go again, with your pretentious Latinisms ...
Oh, if people only knew how frugal we are. @('.')@
I know... and it was in acronym form, too...
Shocking disregard for the common man.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
But if you're going that way, surely NSM
(genitive singular “mensis” … I pretty sure salb only confiscated the accusative plural)
by green star oakland on Oct 30, 2008 9:10 PM PDT up reply actions
i'm spelling
Dye with a capital D.
so that makes it a funny joke.
or at least, a joke.
or, erm, right. my feet are wet and terrorists spiked my beer
BB should send scounts to watch cricket players.
by alea iacta est on Oct 30, 2008 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Since we are talking about outfielders
I like having Rajai Davis on the team, if only for his great speed. I know his bat is weak and his defense is only OK but I just think it’s nice to have a player around that you can say “Wow he has amazing (insert ability/talent)”.
Obviously in Davis’s case it is blazing speed. It’s exciting to watch someone steal bases and score easily from 1st on a double or from 2nd on a single or hit a triple without having the outfielder slam into a wall or miss a diving catch. It also gives the radio/TV announcers something talk about and praise. And it makes for nice replays, “look how fast he is, he misjudged the ball but caught up to it with his feet”
I think I would rather been really great at one thing than just OK at everything. That’s probably why I always liked Matt Stairs and why I like Jack Cust, they have (or mostly in Stairs case had) awesome power. Every once and a while they just absolutely unload and hit the ball a mile and that is exciting to watch. The blast (fromt he past?) that Stairs hit against the Dodgers in the NLCS was so cool and I cheered even though I’m not a Phillies fan or Dodger hater.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
I would submit that his defense is much better than "only OK"
I don’t know that he’s the center field equivalent of Adam Everett, but he’s pretty damn good out there. Probably good enough to merit a roster spot, just to be Cust’s personal defensive replacement.
Eh
Carlos Gonzalez was a better defender last season, and has far more upside with the bat.
Not much reason to not play him if you’re willing to trade off defense for (present) offense.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I don't think Gonzalez was a better defender.
Because all the numbers I’m finding (which isn’t a ton, probably because Davis has a small sample size) suggest otherwise. Davis is almost Endy Chavez good. Gonzalez is pretty good, but he’s not that good.
by thejd44 on Oct 30, 2008 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Sean Smith projects him at +9, Davis at +7 for next season
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
So the Royals just aquired Mike Jacobs from Florida for Leo Nunez.
They’ve got about eleventeen 1B/DH types now, and are considering moving Teahen back to 3B and forcing Alex Gordon into the “potential 1B” mix.
Gordon FTW?
I think Teahen gets traded.
Enough teams looking for a 3B. I see Gordon going to 3B.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
If Holliday is truly a one-year rental
then there’s no doubt he’s not worth acquiring via trade.
The A’s should absolutely explore adding a young, established and excellent corner OF such as Holliday and locking them up for several years. There’s no way three of Buck, Gonzalez, Cunningham, and Sweeney are going to be as good as Holliday for the life of such a contract. Cheaper, sure, or better ROI, but not as good, and the A’s have plenty of money for this.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
As others have stated, Scott Boras will want Holliday to test the open market.
My target would be Magglio Ordonez, if I had to pick one. Not too many years.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
would you like to join the monkeyball/mikev Plan Bandwagon?
Trade for Maggs, sign one of Giambi/Dunn/Teixeira, move Barton to 3B.
Oh, if people only knew how frugal we are. @('.')@
Holliday can always fire Scott Boras
or, make him do what he wants. Boras works for him, not the other way around. I doubt that will happen, though.
Ordonez is too old to be a building block. The A’s need to take on a player in their 3-6 years and lock them up.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
I disagree.
They don’t need a “building block” because they’ve already got a core of pre-arb players to build around in Suzuki, Barton, Cargo, Cunningham, Sweeney, Buck, and Cust.
Adding a big dollar short term masher will just supplement that, whether it be a Magglio Ordonez type guy via trade or an Adam Dunn/Jason Giambi gype guy via free agency.
Right
Assuming at least some of those guys do what we expect, what we need is a proven bat (or, you know, two) to take the pressure off our pitchers and carry the team for a few years.
My vote, still, is Dunn because I think he’s undervalued (by FA standards anyway).
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
It does, it does.
Which is why you trade for young, affordable, “core” guys, and supplement what is left via FA.
One power bat alone won’t carry a team. Look at the 2007 Giants with Bonds.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
unfortunately, Not-Corey isn't the only not-corey guy we have
Oh, if people only knew how frugal we are. @('.')@
true, true.
Core-type guys would be
Ellis- 2B
Suzuki-C
2 of Buck/Cunningham/Sweeney/Cargon- OF (I’m really convinced Cunningham will be something special).
Cust-DH
Barton (if he can turn it around, he has great potential)- 1B Or, maybe one of Carter or Doolittle.
Five pitchers. You pick which five. A few raise red flags though. The pitching core is set. This includes the minor league guys.
3B/SS- Cardenas (this will be later 2010.
So yeah, the A’s have some core work to do, and they do need to add some guys to that core, and hopefully a few get better.
Although, building around that "core’ is better than building the team via FA or around a veteran FA.
The Dirty Canuck of the now.
Interesting bits here posters
plenty to chew on….most will be spit out eventually.
Spit out, as the opposite of ruminate, which means it all would get digested through several tracts.
Officially awaiting the 2009 season.
by One won lost won on Oct 31, 2008 9:14 PM PDT reply actions
Trade them Buck and Matt Morris!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I wish Howe was the A's Manager
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Nov 2, 2008 1:29 AM PDT up reply actions
I miss Connie Mack
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
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