On to the second in our four-part introductory series on what to expect in the AL West next year. The Rangers could be interesting, as they have a great offense that's dying for some pitching help. And they have pitching in the minors, but it's a ways off from the majors. John Sickels had a thread up on the Rangers not long ago-- it's interesting reading.

Once again, our task is to figure out what the Rangers figure to do with their team "as is," to provide a baseline to measure subsequent moves against. Let's roll!

C: Gerald Laird/Taylor Teagarden (-5 runs offense, 0 runs defense) A bit of editorializing on my part here, but it's unavoidable. The Rangers have 4 catchers. I think they'll pick Teagarden as the long-term solution and trade Saltalamacchia before his value completely evaporates. Laird is roughly a league average catcher. Teagarden may well be more than that in the long haul, but right now I don't think he is. His bat will drag down the offense a little.

1B: Chris Davis (+15 runs offense, -5 runs defense) I'm being generous with that defense mark, folks. Davis is apparently a horrendously poor third baseman, and even moving him to 1B which is much easier, he's probably well below average. That said, his offense is studly and figures to get better from here. Note: Once again, I'm projecting offense relative to the position. Chris Davis is about 25 runs better than a league average hitter, while the average 1B is about 10 runs better than the average hitter.

2B: Ian Kinsler (+25 runs offensively, -10 runs defensively) Another guy who should take up a second job in a slaughterhouse-- he's a butcher out there. Again, it doesn't matter enough to make him a bad player. What I'm trying to figure out is why a guy with 26 steals scores so poorly on fielding range. I wonder if he'd benefit from a positional change. BTW, off-topic, in case you're wondering why I think the A's need to keep Adrian Cardenas at all costs, it's because Kinsler is the guy he might eventually turn into.

SS: Michael Young (+10 runs offensively, -10 runs defensively) Young was pretty lousy at the plate this year, but he made up for it by being unusually effective with the glove (for him). I don't think either of those trends will continue; he should go right back to being his old overrated, vastly overpaid, good-offense-bad-defense-overall-average self.

3B: Hank Blalock (0 runs offensively, -5 runs defensively) I gotta be honest with you, I'm not sure what to put here. Blalock has been hurt for much of the last two seasons, although he's still pretty effective when he plays. But he's also getting pricey and the Rangers may not bring him back. Then there are the replacements... yuegh. Travis Metcalf is lame at best, and Ramon Vasquez has to be on the way out, right? Right? There is invariably a large element of guesswork in doing these, so take it up with Rangers management or God if you don't like this assessment.

LF: Nelson Cruz (+5 runs offensively, -5 runs defensively) Another questionable pick. Marlon Byrd was the best of the Rangers group this season, but he's 30 and probably won't be this good going forward. Cruz came up and just mashed the ball in September after a blisteringly hot season in AAA. He really did suck the last 3 years; his career OPS+ is still below 100. So I don't know what to make of him. I'd give him league average corner OF offense (about a 105 OPS+) but it easily could be 20 runs higher or lower. I haven't heard good things about his defense. Why am I giving the team +5 if I think Cruz is average? I think that because of the number of options the Rangers have here, that they will ultimately get plus offense out of the position.

CF: Josh Hamilton (+30 runs offensively, -10 runs defensively) Hamilton really needs to move to right field long-term. He's badly overstretched in center and I think he'd be much better in a corner where he can rely on his instincts rather than his speed (which is not outstanding). It might up him from +20 to +25 or better. That said, the guy has put up a high-800s OPS two years running. Hard to argue with that.

RF: David Murphy (0 runs offensively, 0 runs defensively) Ho-hum. Nothing to see here. Murphy is one of those guys you have to have, and really don't want to be paying more than a few million for. The Rangers aren't, so they're fine on that front.

DH: Max Ramirez (-10 runs offensively) I mentioned that I think Saltalamacchia is going to be dealt off. That leaves 3 catchers, and Ramirez is pretty clearly the worst defensively of the group. He can really hit, but it's going to take a little while for it to show up at the MLB level. Keep in mind that that -10 is accounting for a 15 run penalty for DHing, meaning that I actually like him to be a little better than league average with the stick next year, probably around a .780 OPS in Texas.

Just an overall comment before we move to pitchers-- this defense is f***ing terrible. No wonder their pitching looks bad. They were probably 50 runs below average this year, and it doesn't look like they'll be improving much next year, although perhaps the arrival of Julio Borbon and Elvis Andrus by 2010 will help balance things a little.

SP

Vicente Padilla (0 runs) Padilla hasn't been theoretically league average for a couple of years, but his numbers are really depressed by that horrifying defense, which has to be accounted for in every pitcher's numbers.

Kevin Millwood (-5 runs) This is why you don't give big contracts to pitchers just after they come off a fluky good season. He was weaker than Padilla this year and has had one good year since 2003. Incidentally, my brain thinks he and Jake Westbrook are the same player. I'm constantly confusing the two.

And here's where we get into nightmare-ville. I'm sort of assuming they go with the young "talent," but I'm not sure it matters that much.

Matt Harrison (-10 runs) Young, but not actually very good (at least not yet). Harrison is an extreme control specialist, but I don't think that's going to play very well in Texas where he's going to be gopherball-prone.

Eric Hurley (-10 runs) Hurley's another solid pitching prospect who's gotten some shouts from BA, but again his minor league numbers just don't predict that he'll be more than a mid-rotation guy and it will probably take him a year or two to settle into that role.

Scott Feldman (-15 runs) They might be better off going with Marty Feldman, since at least his creepy lazy eye might weird the hitters out enough to throw them off their game. Except, Marty Feldman is dead. Well, just adds to the creepiness, amirite?

Bullpen (-15 runs) The Rangers pen was, once you account for the park and that godawful defense, not that bad this year, and it'll probably be reinforced with some decent pitchers from the losers of the SP battle who will fill out the middle relief roles. Still, I'm not predicting anything particularly fantastic here.

Net: -30 runs, for a predicted record of 78-84. Within theoretical range of the Angels, but it's going to be tough with this kind of pitching and defense. They have a little money to spend, but not much; they can probably upgrade one position but I see no realistic way their predicted record is going to rise to better than 81 wins or so. The Angels are still the team to beat.

Next up: Mariners. Just to fill everyone's schadenfreude quota.