Monday Morning Fall League Musings

by grover on Oct 13, 2008 12:00 AM PDT Comment 60 comments

Last week Taj Adib and I sat down at our respective computers and devised Top 20 lists for the A’s minor league system. When we compared our lists it was apparent that we didn’t see eye-to-eye on a few of the players. Over the next couple weeks Taj and I are going to debate our choices and then share those discussions with AN’s hordes in an attempt to convince you of the righteousness of our particular side.

In the meantime, allow me to update you on the goings on in Hawaii and Arizona.

The Hawaiian Baseball League

The A’s have three players in Hawaii; in a league that features a mix of American and Japanese ballplayers. The competition is somewhere between AA and AAA so the HBL serves as a sort of competitive sampling of what life has in store for this group of A’s prospects. Corey Brown, Chris Carter and Sam Demel all left High-A Stockton to play for the North Shore Honu. The early results are mixed. Demel is getting hammered thus far while Brown and Carter are holding their own. Strike outs continue to be an issue with the two hitters but they’ve continued to show some pop and the ability to draw a walk. They’re about 1/3 of the way through a 40 game season so there’s still time to see some progress against more advanced talent.

The Arizona Fall League

The AFL is only 5 games into its 38 game schedule, but setting the small sample size aside, the seven Oakland farmhands playing for the Phoenix Desert Dogs have had more success than not. Sean Doolittle has 3 doubles and 2 HR in 20 at bats but more importantly a 2:1 BB/K rate. Doolittle showed during the season he could hit for power but he lost some control of the strike zone. If Doolittle can cut back on the K’s while not losing any of the power his stock will go up considerably. BTW, Sean has started all 5 games for Phoenix in RF.

Josh Donaldson is in the midst of a positional change as well. The A’s are allowing him to play 1B for Phoenix; my guess is they’re more interested in getting Donaldson at bats against AA and above pitchers than they are of getting him more innings behind the plate.

Andrew Carignan has the only Phoenix save, so I guess we could call him the closer!

The Mexican Winter League

A’s prospect and PaulThomas obsession Arnold Leon is pitching for Culiacan. This is the last of his contractual obligation South of the border. Next year he becomes sole property of the A’s. He’s pitched 1 inning so far, striking out 1.

The Dominican and Venezuelan Leagues start up in a few days, the Dominican League in early November. Taj and I will do our best keep you updated on any A’s prospects participating in those leagues.

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Doolittle

This is the second year in a row that he’s had basically the same season— start out excellent, fade badly in the middle, then come back roaring after a month off. Last year he did it in instructional league, this year in the AFL. It seems like a plausible explanation that he just doesn’t have the stamina to hold his (very good) Stockton performance up over a full season yet. Hopefully he will develop it over the course of his pro career. With this being his age 21 season (he was a young-ish college draftee) he has plenty of time to do so.

If you buy this explanation, it’s a good thing, because it indicates that his true talent level is very high. I think he’s back in front of Cardenas and only slightly behind Cunningham as the third best prospect-eligible position player (with Carter in first) in the system at present.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 13, 2008 12:27 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Sean did an interview a while back

He was dead tired in August and I think that affected his play. Everyone needs to remember that this is his first full professional season and he went from playing 3-4 games a week to 6-7 games. You can only work-out so much, ultimately you have to do it (play a full season) to build the necessary endurance.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 13, 2008 12:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Alternate viewpoint

There is an alternate explanation for his performance this year; Doolittle had a fluky half in the Cal League but was exposed in the Texas League. Ask almost anyone who has followed prospects for any length of time and they will tell you that AA is where you can really begin to tell which prospects can handle tough competition and which prospects have taken advantage of the lower levels of experience/talent in lower leagues. By that test, Doolitle remains very much a question mark.

For me, I need to see Doolittle preform well in AA before I believe in him. Subjectively, I don’t see what others see in him, and I will maintain my skepticism about him until he does something to change my mind. Half a season in the Cal League and a few at bats in the AFL are not going to do it.

by BlameChannel53 on Oct 13, 2008 6:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you're going off sample sizes, though, the AA performance is MUCH more likely to be a fluke than the A performance

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 13, 2008 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

Doolittle had 334 at bats in A and only 201 at bats in AA, so the sample size is larger in A. In reality, both sample sizes are pretty small, but of course that’s always true of a prospect early in his professional career. Ultimately, time will tell on Doolittle as it does on every prospect.

by BlameChannel53 on Oct 13, 2008 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Worth noting that Midland is very tough of Lhhs

to a similar extent as Stockton is favorable. Certainly, the jury is out on him…

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Oct 13, 2008 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 13, 2008 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another thing to remember re: Doolittle...

2008 was the first season where he solely concentrated on being a position player. He was both a pitcher and a hitter throughout college and consequently didn’t do a lot of bulking up or heavy conditioning during his previous years. He went into this season with a lot more muscle on his frame than he ever did before, and consequently hit for a lot more power earlier in the year, but was probably dragged down by the added weight later in the year and tired out.

Optimistically, you would think that his body is now acclimated to the added muscle/weight and he’ll be able to stay strong for a longer period of time.

I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!

by Taj Adib on Oct 13, 2008 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

HIs history as a pitcher also makes his move to RF plausible

He’s reportedly an excellent 1B, and he must have at least a good arm if he was a college picher. Unless he has no ability whatsoever to track flyballs, I’d guess that he could become a good RF.

I don’t know whether moving him to RF helps the A’s much, given the crowding in the outfield, but it would keep 1B free for Barton or Carter.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Oct 13, 2008 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The one thing I would say about that is that if you're trading a very good 1B for an average corner OF

you might end up actually losing defensive runs (eg a 1B who is 10 runs above average is more defensively useful than a RF who is average, even after you account for positional adjustment).

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 13, 2008 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, this would be more in the service of squeezing more offense into your lineup

The fantasy version being that you can’t play Cust, Carter, Doolittle and Barton at 3 positions (LF, 1B, DH), but if Doolittle can play RF then all of them can hit for you. That’s making a lot of favorable assumptions about how these players develop, but by the time Doolittle is in the majors (assuming he makes it) those slots might be filled by a different set of hitters. The idea is simply to solve a logjam at the near end of the defensive spectrum.

But my main point was to distinguish this from Cust in LF or Carter in the OF (or 3B) — Cust has worked his butt off to become okay, and Carter seems to have no defensive skills at all, whereas Doolittle seems to have the intrinsic capabilities to be a good or even very good RF. He’s probably not fast, but there have been many excellent RFs who don’t run particularly well (Dwight Evans being the best example). He has a good arm and good hands, and he’s not a klutz, so as long as he can learn to read fly balls he could well end up being a good RF, not just an adequate one.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Oct 13, 2008 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure, sure

And by all reports, he’s already a great defensive 1B, so it’s not like he needs to spend his time honing his craft at the position (unlike, say, Petit, who has great defensive tools but still makes many correctable errors).

I still think the team will be better off, however, converting Barton to 3B and leaving Doolittle at first in the long run. That way you fill a more defensively important four positions.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 13, 2008 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure, but...

Barton the 3rd baseman is an absolute long shot.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 13, 2008 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't Barton totally flunk out at 3B in the minors when they tried him there?

"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"

by Eastbayjim on Oct 13, 2008 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 13, 2008 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but "they" thought he would flunk out at first, too

and he turned out to be one of the best fielding 1B in the league this year.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 13, 2008 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But PT

Barton actually “flunked” when tried at 3B.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 13, 2008 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Time heals all wounds

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 13, 2008 7:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You mean we let him take the test again, with cheat sheets?

"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"

by Eastbayjim on Oct 13, 2008 8:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No reason not to let him take the test again ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Oct 13, 2008 8:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He will do fine at third base, look at people like Kotsay switching to first base mid-season.

by mattman on Oct 14, 2008 7:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks again for the excellent work grover.

I enjoy reading both your’s and Taj’s posts as you both have good insight and still speak your mind.
I also pleased that you both value Mazzaro as highly as you do as I think he and Cahill and Anderson will or could be the fab three for the coming decade. That allows us to trade, at some point, anyone except I think, Gallagher from our starting lineup to get someone for the left side of the infield.
An article from Oakland’s Scout page from Keith Lieppman said that they like to move people around a bit in he minors as that gives them more places they can use someone. It is easier to have them multitask and learn new positions in A or AA then up in the big leagues.

"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"

by Eastbayjim on Oct 13, 2008 12:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Any word on how the Instructional League is going? Thanks

by calas on Oct 13, 2008 6:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I did see this note regarding Jemile Weeks...

at baseballamerica.com

Jemile Weeks, Oakland’s first-round pick out of Miami, is in instructional league camp but will not see any game action until next spring. The second baseman is rehabilitating a hip flexor injury that occurred while he was playing for low Class A Kane County against Peoria on July 29 at Wrigley Field.

"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane

by athleticsBB4life on Oct 13, 2008 8:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't care what anybody says, I still hate that pick.

How’s Brett Wallace doing these days?

by mikev on Oct 13, 2008 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

kind of the same

wouldve you taken BPA wallace instead? its obvious they werent convinced about his defensive position even though the bat is legit
hicks they liked as a sp
for all the hype about carter/doolittle etc, the “experts” at BA/BP like weeks upside even more…whether its true or not, we’ll see in a few yrs

slight overdraft by 4-5 spots but probably wouldve went soon after since it was a very shallow middle infielder class ..that mid-late 1st rd was very 1b/DH and reliever heavy

by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 13, 2008 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd much rather have taken BPA rather than organizational need.

The subsequent aquisitions of Patterson and Cardenas made me scratch my head even further.

by mikev on Oct 13, 2008 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Aaron Hicks was a vastly preferable pick to either of them

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 13, 2008 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hicks would have been my pick as an OF

by BlameChannel53 on Oct 13, 2008 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keith Law touches on A's prospects in the AFL

Add Andrew Carignan to the list of Oakland pitching prospects who’ll show up in the majors in the next 18 months. Carignan, the closer at North Carolina behind starters Andrew Miller and Daniel Bard, was 93-95 the other night with a hard 12-to-6 curveball around 80 mph, and — key for him — threw strikes. Jared Lansford showed a good arm, 92-94, but was getting around the ball instead of on top of it.

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3637243&name=law_keith&action=login&appRedirect=http3a2f2finsider.espn.go.com2fespn2fblog2findex3fentryID3d363724326name3dlaw_keith

by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 13, 2008 8:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Venezuelan league starts tomorrow

First Home game, on the 21st and i’ll be there, rooting for Carlos Gonzalez and Henry Rodriguez. Laporta is gonna be playing for the opponent team.

by jahs34 on Oct 13, 2008 9:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Law's latest notes

“…Oakland first baseman/outfielder Sean Doolittle was a performance enigma this year, hitting .305/.385/.560 in high A-ball but falling flat with a .254/.311/.388 line in AA, striking out 153 times in just over 600 PA. His approach at the plate doesn’t point to much power, nor does his wiry build. He was swinging slightly upward all week, in BP and in games, getting on top of balls rather than squaring them up. He looked fine in right field and showed a plus arm. Josh Donaldson didn’t catch, but made a number of good plays at first base, and showed pull power and good hand-eye coordination at the plate. ..”

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=law_keith

by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 13, 2008 9:29 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

if you add JDon into the 1b mix too

and Barton doesnt figure it out next yr…time to say bye bye, A’s would have multiple options to replace him.

by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 13, 2008 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's not going to stay there

Donaldson is only at 1B because of the positional needs of the Phoenix Desert Dogs. Donaldson will get at least next year to play his way off of catcher before he ends up at 1B. It is also likely that Donaldson would be moved to 3B before he ended up at 1B.

by BlameChannel53 on Oct 13, 2008 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i know that, it extends his versatility either way

but due to his bat and positional value at catcher…that would be his best spot i assume…surprising law even would rank Donaldson in the top 50 range overall due to those reasons

by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 13, 2008 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You know who I think is an interesting option in the minor leagues?

2b Travis Denker. The Giants just released him, he has pretty decent offensive numbers for a 2b, and he’s onlyl 22. His defense isn’t all that great, but he could be a plus hitter and average glove, and he’s more major league ready than any of our other prospects. Now if he could only play SS…

'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long

by DyeLongJustice on Oct 13, 2008 9:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Giants didn't release him

He was claimed off waivers by the Padres.

by thejd44 on Oct 13, 2008 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe another future trade

with beane’s buddies in SD

headley, or antonelli i’d like to pry away

kouz is ok, just the obp is scary

by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 13, 2008 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

me too, but I doubt the Pads will do that unless they are overwhelmed

'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long

by DyeLongJustice on Oct 13, 2008 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

my bad

'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long

by DyeLongJustice on Oct 13, 2008 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Utterly inexplicable move

Release Denker, keep Eugenio f***ing Velez? Sabean has learned absolutely nothing.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 13, 2008 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wish Donaldson were playing 3B instead of 1B

I’d like to find out how well he can or can’t handle 3B because if he can he may be one of the A’s better options in the next couple years.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 13, 2008 12:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

A case of AFL needs trumping A's desires

Oakland asked for Cardenas to play at SS, someone else asked for their guy to play 3B.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 13, 2008 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the minor league musings

Good writeup. Looking forward to the finished product you compromise on. LOL

Charlie Brown GO A'S WIN

by Charlie Brown on Oct 13, 2008 1:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Silly Chuck, there is no compromise

There’s me being right and Taj being wrong.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 13, 2008 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hawaii

I noticed Demel has not pitched in over a week. Could be injury or just exhaustion after first full season. Too bad almost nobody attends the Hawaii games. The competition is impressive. Lots of league MVP’s and system player-of-year type guys. Several guys who hit like Carter. Not to mention all the Jap pros.

by movetotexas on Oct 13, 2008 3:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm assuming this was not intentional

but I would strongly suggest you use a different abbreviation for “Japanese”.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 13, 2008 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Paul Thomas preaching about offending people. Typical.

Eveland rocks! Eveland rocks! Somewhere Drew Carey just smiled.

by miggyk2 on Oct 13, 2008 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Preaching"?

Is this a joke? I made a well-intentioned suggestion. If you’re suggesting that “what I do” is somehow equivalent to (intentionally or unintentionally) using racial slurs, then, well, you’re utterly full of shit.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 13, 2008 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have to agree with PT on this one 100%

I am not saying that movetotexas wrote that to hurt anyone but that word does hurt people. Racial slurs wether they are meant or not should not be used. PT was simply pointing that out not Preaching.

"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"

by Eastbayjim on Oct 13, 2008 8:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He also put it nicely

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 13, 2008 9:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs