But I’m slightly worried about Texas next year too. If they could ever just get some pitching, rather than trading it away (imagine if they had Chris Young, John Danks, and Edinson Volquez, although you subtract Josh Hamilton), I think that they would probably be the best in the Division. I really think that because this is a weak division, the A’s have a shot next year. The main thing I’m worried about with the A’s is their starting pitching. I don’t believe in Dana, Greg Smith is just ok, Gallagher could be good but so far not so much, Braden could be pretty good, Gio has way too many walks, Duke is good but not ‘best in the league’ good, and Outman needs more seasoning. I think that will be near the edge of being competitive next season, but we may have to wait one more season before we are seriously good again. Having said that, if Buck keeps up his september tear throughout next season, swooney and zooks keep up the good work, ellis returns to form, we find a competent third baseman or chavez stays healthy-ish, and cargon or aaron cunningham contribute in a big way, all bets are off and Slegna should watch it’s back.

Weaver and Saunders, though only a tad. Weaver’s been better than +5 all three years by tRA. Figgins is probably better than -5, too. This was his worst year in awhile, and the high obp and SBs are pretty valuable. Agree with the rest though, and I don’t disagree much with the ones I mentioned. It’s not much of an offense without Tex, especially since the injury backups were awful this year, but the pitching should be excellent. It’s possible Lackey may start decline.

One would think they’ll be active on the FA market. I predict they’ll sign Sabathia, who apparently wants to play in S. Cal. and some reasonable non-Tex 1B option. The current group with no FA signings is not much better than average, as you suggest.

would probably be someone like Nick Adenhart.

As for 1B, they’ll probably resign Teixiera.

And I wouldn’t be surprised if the Giants were stupid again and signed Sabathia. The Dodgers might even spend some money on him. The Angels might win that sweepstakes, but it won’t be easy.

Granted, they’re overrated by just about the rest of the sports world.

Somebody else on here made an interesting point earlier this year about how the Angels are built like that for a reason. Their long relievers basically just suck, but the rest of their bullpen is fantastic.

Therefore, when they’re losing big and early, they go to their long relievers and the games turn into blowouts. But when their starters do alright and turns it over to Sheilds and Rodriguez, the bullpen keeps it that way.

In the end, they lose a couple of games by 10 runs, but win several games by one or two runs, which makes their run differences distorted. I’m not sure if I explained this well enough, but I’m also in the camp that says there’s no way they can repeat that road record next year. It’ll be a much better race next year

Somehow I doubt he’s the opening day 1B. Re-signing Tex a long shot, but I think they’ll go to some kind of plan B like, perhaps, Aubrey Huff.

As for Lackey, doesn’t it seem like this guy is always getting a little bit lucky? I mean, his GB and HR rates never seemed to jibe before this year; and, now that they do, his ERA is far superior to his FIP.

I see the Angels as a decent but unspectacular team next season, unless they make some major acquisition like CC or Adrian Gonzalez.

leads them to be complacent this off-season

I think they do.

Mets need 3 relievers, not one K-Rod.

Sabathia or Teixeira. The Angels will land one or the other.

Let’s say they land Sabs, Kenny Williams might be interested in Chone Figgins to add speed and bat lead-off. I could see a Figgins/Swisher centered deal (with Swisher moving to 1B for the Angels) that opens up 3B for Brandon Wood. I mean, he’s got to get some at bats in 2009, right?

Or they stick Swisher in LF (bye-bye Anderson) and sign someone to play 1B. Giambi, maybe? They’ve probably got a few options.

Their talent was more than 84 wins despite the Pythagenport.

If they do the right things, like bringing in Teixeira, Dunn, or at least Giambi, they’ll be at least OK at 1B/DH. They could also sign Burrell and not worry that he’ll suck in three years.
Rodriguez and Wood should make their IF backups or even 3B better than replacement level. If I were they, I’d try and trade for Chavez.

Re-signing Garland or another innings eater won’t be that hard.

I think it’s clear they will make a step backward next year regardless, but I think they are going to be more than merely a .500-ish team. However, we can compete next year, and Beane should do his best to have everyone of his players trust that (with young guys, the trust will go a long way).
That said, I think it would be quite helpful if PT did this for the projected A’s lineup, if time permits….

but unfortunately I think they will win more games in 2009 than any other AL west team, I don’t believe that Texas will get enough pitching to win the division, nor do I think the A’s will be ready to win it in 2009. As for the Mariners, the necessary housecleaning and rebuilding their organization needs to do means they’re probably looking at several years (certainly longer than the A’s).

Is that Vlad is good and healthy enough in 2009 to sucker the Angels into another 4-year deal. If Vlad is gone after 2009, the Angels just go out and replace him with a younger, better player. We’re all assuming that Vlad gone = worse team, but the Angels have the money to find that production. So I’m hoping Vlad is good enough in 2009 to convince the Angels they should dedicate another $60-70 million to him. They’re going to have some All-Star type players anyway, so I want their best hitter to be an aging DH.

but I’d assume they’ll do something to add to it …

I’d guess they’ll end up having 86-88 win talent …

If Angels is only projected to win 83 games, given the unbalanced schedule, they are going to lose a few games more to the Rangers than this year, wouldn’t that make the competition a little tougher for the A’s? I’m a little skeptical that a team with projected win total < 50% can win the division. But then again you never know (see NL West).

I like this analysis, and can’t wait to see what you project for the Rangers. And yes, I’m already counting out the Mariners.

you were talking about the Mariners, I think you need to give a little more credit where credit is due, they got a hell of a ball club down there and I know that no matter how big of an A’s fan I am.

According to MLB Trade Rumors (mlbtraderumors.com), the Angels are going to have at least 30 million to spend, and possibly more. For 30 million, the Angels are going to have a lot of options. I see the Angels getting Texeira because Morales sucks and the Angels have already had an ‘in’ with Tex by virtue of trading for him and having him in Anaheim for a while. Plus, he’s familiar with the AL West. If they pick up Tex, that pretty much leaves room for one smaller signing (5th starter?).

but why don’t we ever take baserunning into account? I know that it adds a lot more work and the amount of wins a player costs his team is probably minimal (1-2 at most), but not taking it into account may underrate/overrate players who aren’t adept at hitting, but are adept at gaining extra bases, stealing at a high percentage, etc. Maybe PT took that into account when doing his offensive +/-, I don’t know, but it seems fair that if player A isn’t much of a bopper, but steals 49 out of 50 bases, he had probably helped his team offensively, just not with the bat. Anyway, this was a great article and not that PT would need to do that as well as it’s time consuming for minimal impact, but I’m wondering if that would influence player’s rating, such as Chone etc.