Duke signed - Will compete for rotation spot
by dboysick on Jan 9, 2008 6:49 PM PST
116 comments
http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/new...
I guess someone has to pitch....
"The A's trimmed their list of arbitration-eligible players to three on Wednesday, signing righty Justin Duchscherer to a one-year deal for the 2008 season.
Per club policy, financial details of the contract were not disclosed. Duchscherer, 30, made a reported $1.19 million in 2007; a raise came with the new deal, but it did not move the former All-Star setup man (2005) over the $2-million mark."
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Who do we have competing for the 2008 Rotation?
Joe Blanton
Rich Harden
Chad Gaudin
seem to be the locks if both present and healthy, though that very well could eliminate all 3 of them really.
So the competition would be between
Justin Duchscherer
Lenny DiNardo
Dan Meyer
Dana Eveland
Gio Gonzalez
Greg Smith
Dallas Braden
by Zonis on Jan 9, 2008 7:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Bizarre number of lefties in that second list
Er, anyway, I don't think Gio Gonzalez is really a candidate for the 2008 rotation. The team doesn't have much reason to push him, so they'll probably want him to prove himself at AAA first.
I'd say the same about Smith, but frankly I don't really see him as being all that great, so they may just use him as an innings-eater.
by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2008 9:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Four LH starters in the rotation?
Hard to imagine how that could ever happen. Because, you know, Billy hates that.
by iglew on Jan 10, 2008 1:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If Anderson is in the rotation
Then that means Simmons, Cahill, Rodriguez, Madson, and possibly De Los Santos, could be in the mix as well so I don't think there will be even 3 lefties in the rotation.
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 10, 2008 4:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I do expect Anderson to rise faster
than the rest of the HS/Latin crowd because of his "polished" approach. Obviously that wouldn't apply to the college guys, but what if the righties don't work out and the lefties do?
I'm not raising this as some kind of specter of impending doom, just observing that it's a possibility (and that even the possibility is somewhat weird).
by PaulThomas on Jan 10, 2008 4:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd initially forgotten about this too,
but the A's starting rotation to open the 2003 season was:
RHP Tim Hudson
LHP Barry Zito
LHP Mark Mulder
LHP Ted Lilly
LHP John Halama
Not trying to step on anyone's toes, beat a dead horse or anything; I just thought I might point it out...
by CletusSJY on Jan 10, 2008 6:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I believe Meyer and Eveland
are out of options. So if they don't make the rotation or are used in the pen they'll need to be moved.
by OaklandSi on Jan 10, 2008 4:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe now
They will sell customized Duke jerseys on MLB.com If you go look at the list of options it is hilarious. They have Piazza, Stewart, and Furmaniak jerseys for sale but no Duke, Buck, or Barton jerseys. What gives there?
by Shippee33 on Jan 9, 2008 7:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Duh, because they made a bunch
of Piazza, Stewart and Furmaniak jerseys, thinking everyone would buy em, and no one did. They made so many, they ran out of jerseys to make Buck, Barton and Duke jerseys. Thus, they won't make any till the PSF ones sell.
by Zonis on Jan 9, 2008 7:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I want mine to say PROSPECT.
by The Dogfather on Jan 9, 2008 7:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I want one that says PTBNL.
by Elvez on Jan 10, 2008 7:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It only comes in XXL
by Englishmajor on Jan 10, 2008 8:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Duke couldn't hold up in the pen
how can he hold up in the rotation? Not gonna happen. He'll start 17 games with an ERA around 4.50.
by brenarlo on Jan 9, 2008 7:49 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather he be in the pen too
to be honest. And especially with our current team and staff, we need a GOOD 8th inning man to hold the few leads we will get.
by Zonis on Jan 9, 2008 8:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Get him to start a few games...
...then trade him for whatever we can get.
by gdubb925 on Jan 9, 2008 9:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Duke's trade value rises as a starter
Keep in mind that the A's current goal with EVERY player who has three plus years of service time is raising their trade value to the max, because none of them will be a part of an A's playoff team before they "graduate" to FA anyway.
That's why Swish and Haren left at their peak, that's part of why Duke will be tried as a starter. He's more marketable if he can prove to be a 4.20-4.50 era AL starter than he is as a middle reliever.
It's also why the service time of these young guys (The Gonzalez Brothers, and even Barton) won't be rushed. They'll all start in the minors this year, unless the injury situation in ST gets as extreme as it did before Buck was brought up. There's no need to rush the service time of 21/22-year-olds on a team that's mediocre or worse.
Beane will preserve an extra year of their peak in Fremont instead.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 9, 2008 8:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Barton will be in the Majors next year
there is no reason to start him in AAA, other than to piss him off. If the A's DO start him in AAA for 2 months, it would be JUST to save money, and that would not only piss off a lot of fans, but piss off a lot of players too. It would have repercussions.
Only way I see Barton not making the team is if the A's still have Dan Johnson on roster and no room to put him anywhere, and thus try to start him at 1B, use his inevitable hot 2 weeks once getting the job to up his value, then trade him. (If you notice a pattern, DJ always enters the league, tears it up for a couple weeks, then goes cold). And this is only because DJ is out of options.
by Zonis on Jan 9, 2008 8:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That's exactly how it'll play out
Sure, it might piss some people off. It pissed Brad Halsey off that he made $60K last year instead of the $400K. You know what I'm talking about Z.
This isn't a team that's unnecessarily generous/philanthropic with player salaries. We cut Kiko Calero a few weeks ago with every intention of re-signing him just
to ensure he wouldn't cost us an extra few hundred thousand.
Considering the decision process with Barton could cost the team perhaps AS MUCH AS TEN MILLION SOMEDAY, you can already predict how it will be handled.
(For those who skip that link, a minimum of two months of patience with Barton potentially saves the team upwards of ten million dollars down the road. That's hard for any viable business to ignore, and worth a little bit of clubhouse grumbling).
by notsellingjeans on Jan 9, 2008 10:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What I mean is that the A's don't want to have
a reputation, or an increased and verifiable reputation, of screwing over their players just for the sake of it. If you make it a policy of screwing with the players, they WILL remember it, their teammates will remember it, and players you try to sign will remember it, and that includes draft picks.
I brought this up once before. Lets say I am a prospect in the draft. The A's have a high draft pick, and draft me out of High School or College (not a senior). I am a very good player, and it is pretty obvious I will get to the big leagues and probably be good.
The A's just drafted me, but I see that they will purposfully delay me just to be cheap and keep me through my prime years. So while I might be ready when I am 20 or 21, they will keep me in the minors till I am 23, and half way through the season, so they can have me till I am 29.
Why should I sign with this team? If I hold out, and re-enter the draft, I can sign with a different team that will get me to the Majors faster, where I can get to the Majors when I am damn well ready, start my career earlier, make more money, and become a Free Agent earlier. Why would I sign with that cheap team that doesn't give a crap about its players, just about making an extra buck.
by Zonis on Jan 9, 2008 10:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You have a great point...
The cost/benefit analysis of "I don't want to sign with this spend-thrift team that'll slightly delay my path to free agency" vs. "Here's a 1.5 million signing bonus offer in my lap" is probably still a no-brainer to a 21-year-old.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 9, 2008 10:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The team may be looking for excuses
to send Barton down, but with the way he played last September, it would be politically unacceptable (I think) to send him down if he has even an average spring training.
I'm pretty convinced by what Geren told Urban in the article the other day-- that as of right now, he views Barton as the starter. Given how easy it would have been for him (and the team) to beg off with a cop-out about having competition for the spot, the decision to declare him the frontrunner seems like a significant one.
by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2008 11:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I Agree
At this point, Barton is major league ready. He needs all the MLB time he can get for seasoning. To put him in the minors in April purely to subvert his earning potential is not how Billy Beane works anyway. I could see it if Barton hadn't had the September call-up. But he did, and he was sensational.
by richwol on Jan 9, 2008 11:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Barton
I'd be willing to bet a lot of money that Barton is the starting 1B for the Oakland Athletics in 2008.
LF - Buck
1B - Barton
3B - Chavez
2B - Ellis
DH - Dan Johnson
SS - Crosby
CF - Kotsay
RF - Denorfia
C - Suzuki
That is the worst lineup I have seen the A's put together in a long, long time. Maybe ever?!?!
by Colorado Fan on Jan 10, 2008 12:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No
I totally forgot Cust (my bad). He'll start as DH in 2008. But it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Cust falls off the map this coming season. Steroid Allegations, MLB Pitchers Knowing Him Better, Full-Time Duties, Expectations.
Cust could last with the A's from 3 months - 5 years. I just don't know. If I had to guess, I would think that Jack Cust will only be on this team through 2009.
by Colorado Fan on Jan 10, 2008 1:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Compare to last season's
Buck > Stewart
Denorfia > Bradley (since he actually plays baseball)
Kotsay = Kotsay
Crosby = Crosby
Suzuki > Kendall
Ellis = Ellis
Chavez = Chavez
Barton < Swisher
DJ <Piazza</p>
I don't even see this as being much worse than last season's lineup. If Oakland unloads Mark Kotsay and replaces him with anybody (say, Nick Blasi-- he qualifies as "anybody"), it's inarguably better.
Also, you seem to have left Jack Cust off of your lineup.
by PaulThomas on Jan 10, 2008 12:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
DJ > Piazza (2007)
And it's not really close.
Piazza is a future hall of famer, but he hit for a godawful .727 OPS last year. DJ may be a AAAA hacker, but he was better than that by about 40 points both last year and for his career.
by andeux on Jan 10, 2008 1:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Another error
Actually, Kotsay < Kotsay.
by iglew on Jan 10, 2008 3:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
kotsay 08 > kotsay 07
by xbhaskarx on Jan 10, 2008 5:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
wanna bet $20?
Kotsay, in his time with the A's in '08, has a lower OPS+ than last year if he has 50+ PAs for the A's.
by monkeyball on Jan 11, 2008 10:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
so if he doesn't get 50 PAs, no one wins?
(aside from the a's)
by xbhaskarx on Jan 11, 2008 10:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
right-o
I just don't want to lose to the "Kotsay hits .300! (in 10 ABs, w/7 GIDPs)" scenario.
by monkeyball on Jan 11, 2008 12:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How quickly the mid-90s are forgotten.
by salb918 on Jan 10, 2008 12:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Women, close your eyes ... men, hide the children
1993, post Rickey Henderson trade:
Jerry Browne LF
Brent Gates 2b
Ruben Sierra RF
Troy Neel DH
Dave Henderson CF
Terry Steinbach C
Mike Aldrete 1b
Craig Paquette 3b
Mike Bordick SS
by devo on Jan 10, 2008 1:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Are you high?
Seriously?
Player OPS+
Browne 75
Gates 107
Sierra 86
Neel 131
Aldrete 119
Henderson 91
Steinabach 106
Paquette 71
Bordick 79
Overall Avg 96
Player OPS+
Buck 130
Barton 186
Chavez 102
Ellis 110
Cust 147
Crosby 68
Kotsay 57
Denorfia 90 (career)
Suzuki 99
Overall Avg 110
I don't think Kotsay is likely to actually be the starting CFer -- much more likely that it will be either Denorfia or Buck with another player who can post a 90+ OPS+ in their stead at the corner. The difference should more or less balance out declines from Barton and Cust.
Crosby sucks and Barton is obviously not going to play that well -- but that's an average starting lineup.
by devo on Jan 10, 2008 2:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for breaking it down
That 1993 team stayed on the field for 1080 Games. Your team played 681 games last season.
The team you listed has had 2 Back Surgeries (Chavez, Kotsay), 3 Elbow Surgeries (Denorfia, Barton, Buck), 2 major shoulder issues (Ellis, Chavez), 1 Body Cast (Crosby), to go along w/ 1 career Minor Leaguer (Cust).
There's a chance the 2008 team doesn't win 68 games. That's all I'm saying. Worse than 1993???? Maybe.
by Colorado Fan on Jan 10, 2008 3:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, the fewer games Kotsay and Crosby play ...
the better.
Suzuki, Cust and Barton will likely play a few more games than last year, since they are unlikely to start the season in Sacramento.
There's a chance the team doesn't lose 68 games, too. It's not very likely, either.
by devo on Jan 10, 2008 3:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Percentages
Lose 68 or Less = .001%
So you're saying there's a chance.
Don't get me wrong... This team has a ton more upside than 1993 (I remember 1993 very, very well. I graduated from St.Mary's College that year and went to about 20 games during the summer). I'm very excited to see what happens in 2008, especially if Buck and Barton produce like I think they can. And I've seen CarGon's swing... it's pretty sweet.
by Colorado Fan on Jan 10, 2008 7:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
ahh the memories
of the "village idot" and co.....
by ST on Jan 10, 2008 1:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus utility extraordinare
Lance Blankenship.
by BWH on Jan 10, 2008 2:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
King of Offense, do you have enough Lineups?
How about this one?
2B Mark Ellis
1B Daric Barton
LF Travis Buck
DH Jack Cust
3B Eric Chavez
RF Carlos Gonzalez
CF Chris Denorfia
C1 Kurt Suzuki
SS Bones Crosby
by Zonis on Jan 10, 2008 3:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yesssss
i've been waiting for another zonis lineup
by flipgatey3 on Jan 10, 2008 7:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Geren
I don't see Geren writing the lineup like that until about August 1, 2008. WE know Buck is the best hitter on this team, but Beane/Geren think Chavez should be the 3-Hole or 4-Hole Hitter.
- Geren loves Buck at the leadoff spot.
- Geen loved Ellis in the 5-hole or 6-hole.
- CarGon won't start in Oakland...will he?
by Colorado Fan on Jan 10, 2008 8:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Buck is NOT the best hitter
on this team, and not even close. Last year, with Eric Chavez playing with about one functional limb and Travis Buck hitting a lucky number of triples, Chavvy still flashed more isolated than Buck. Buck will be lucky to hit 20 HRs in a year.
Buck is not a bad hitter, but he's no great shakes either. There's a good chance that he has value through his OBP and that he hits a good number of doubles, but he'll never have the type of power you want from a middle-of-the-order hitter.
He'll be a complementary piece of the rebuilding, not one of the centerpieces.
by salb918 on Jan 11, 2008 7:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Chavvy still flashed more isolated
So you're saying Chavvy was exposed in the lineup?
by monkeyball on Jan 11, 2008 10:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not even close?
Who is likely to be better besides Cust (who will drop somewhat)? Not Chavez...
by mikeA on Jan 11, 2008 12:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Chavez has a decent chance ...
by devo on Jan 11, 2008 12:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
True, but that strikes me as an unwise bet...
by mikeA on Jan 11, 2008 12:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Between the chances of a Chavez surge ...
and a Buck drop, I think it's probably pretty close to 50-50.
by devo on Jan 11, 2008 12:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Buck drops here?
by PaulThomas on Jan 11, 2008 5:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
One other point,
arby buyout contracts.
If you screw around with a position player, one whom you expect to be good, one whom you want to sign an arb buyout contract, he might very well decide to play hardball when it comes to that time.
Since he is a position player, his risk of injury and his incentive to sign an arby buyout contract is already less than a pitcher.
Screw around with him, and you give him a good reason to go to arb year by year and then walk.
by rfloh on Jan 10, 2008 8:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
prospects want to sign with the As
Think about it this way, if your in college and think your going to play in the pros do you want to get drafted by, the As, or say the red sox. now on the red soxs if your a very good prospect, youll be backed up for years because they can go out and buy players they dont need to rely on their farm system. If you get drafted by a small market team, they generally develop alot of their own talent. so would you rather get to the As at 23(which is really young) or play in the yankees triple A and maybe play in the second half when someone gets hurt.
by skalordes on Jan 10, 2008 1:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Which young
player have the RS blocked?
Or look at the Yankees. Notorious big money team. Which good young player have the Yanks blocked? If anything, they have rushed Melky Cabrera a lot.
by rfloh on Jan 10, 2008 8:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Red Sox have blocked
anyone who may be MLB ready in LF (Manny), DH (Ortiz), C (Varitek), RF (Drew), 3B (Lowell).
Melky Cabrera was only rushed because he was/is the best of their OF prospects - and also quite good, same with Cano. The Red Sox are getting ready to do the same thing with Ellsbury. Obviously Cashman and Theo think that those guys are special enough to make room for them. Otherwise though, their farm systems are both likely stocked with players who could be MLB guys if they were in other organizations.
I think that the idea is that amatures who want a fast track to MLB want to be drafted by a team who is both thrifty (cheap) and low on MLB talent so that they could make it to the show faster because they are either A. that good, or B. cheaper than the alternative.
by bvank on Jan 10, 2008 1:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You can't just say "anybody who may be MLB ready"
That's a cop-out. Name some names.
Frequently, the reason why teams sign expensive FA's to long term deals is precisely because they haven't got anyone to block.
by PaulThomas on Jan 10, 2008 1:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Drew signing ...
should have blocked Ellsbury, save for injuries opening the way...
by devo on Jan 10, 2008 1:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Who is Manny blocking
Name him. Who is Lowell blocking ? Youkilis? Nope, Youkilis is playing. If you think David Ortiz is blocking Lars Anderson, you are seriously overrating prospects.
Look at Melky's numbers in the minors and the majors. They are good IF you take into account his age to level. Without looking at age, they aren't good. His career OPS in the minors is 766.
Also, since the Yankees are a big market team, shouldn't he be "backed up for years because they can go out and buy players they dont need to rely on their farm system"?
Shouldn't the Yankees have been able to buy a 2b, instead of making Robinson Cano a starter at age 22, when many people considered him a mediocre prospect?
" Otherwise though, their farm systems are both likely stocked with players who could be MLB guys if they were in other organizations."
Who? Let's take the Yanks. Jose Tabata? OPS of 763 in A+ at age 18. Nope, he's not ready. Nowhere close to being ready. Austin Jackson? Nope, one good season in A+ at age 20 doesn't mean that he is blocked.
The conventional wisdom that the Yankees hate young prospects is simply not true. Very few of the young prospects that they have traded away have amounted to anything. Those that they have given chances to have nearly all, from Bernie, Captain Clutch to Cano, turned out to be good players.
by rfloh on Jan 10, 2008 1:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
by flipgatey3 on Jan 10, 2008 7:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
how long would Barton need to be in AAA
to not trigger the clock?
by OaklandSi on Jan 10, 2008 4:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I did the exact math earlier ...
so if you want to do a search it's in one of my comments ...
but, IIRC it's a bit less than two months to delay FA and a bit over three months to avoid Super-2.
by devo on Jan 10, 2008 9:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Makers sense to me.
What's two months of a losing season anyway. It's just business. Let DJ try to hit MLB pitching, again, for two months and then bring Barton up.
by methodrampage on Jan 10, 2008 8:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Regardless of the merits of what you're saying
the odds are extremely low that Barton will start the year in AAA.
by mikeA on Jan 10, 2008 9:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Geren said yesterday that
Barton will probably bat 2nd in the lineup, no suggestion that he is not the starting 1st baseman. In fact he said he will have to find some AB's for DJ, if DJ is still on the team.
by china bob on Jan 10, 2008 9:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
halsey
there's a big difference between halsey and barton.
you can use these types of tactics with players like halsey, and if they are pissed off with the organization for whatever reason, legitimate or not (like halsey, kennedy, melhuse, and other kiger-types who overestimate their own importance) it probably would not matter very much.
i'm sure the organization does not want to create adversarial relationship with barton, what if they want to sign him to a swisher-type contract eventually?
by xbhaskarx on Jan 10, 2008 10:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Kiger overestimated his own importance?
by PaulThomas on Jan 10, 2008 10:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It is impossible to
exaggerate the complete unimportance of...yourself!
by salb918 on Jan 10, 2008 11:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
at least his wife did
see Oz's Kiger-gate.
by Zonis on Jan 10, 2008 12:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Look, it's simple.
if Barton starts in AAA, I cease following this team. Period. There's no reason why someone like DB should be in the minors. If it happens, BB is penny pinching. The one thing I can't stand are cheap millionaires.
by sf drift king on Jan 10, 2008 1:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No offense, man
but if you dislike penny pinching, you may want to find a different franchise. The A's have been money-grubbers since the Connie Mack era.
That being said, there's a difference between "being cheap" (in the sense of, say, not signing free agents) and "breach of contract," and holding players in the minors for no reason other than to avoid paying them a fair salary is the latter in my opinion. Not that it's provable in court or anything-- the team can always come up with some half-assed excuse for demoting a player-- but it's clearly unethical with respect to the collective bargaining agreement.
by PaulThomas on Jan 10, 2008 1:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
well still
he did say he would cease following the team...
by flipgatey3 on Jan 10, 2008 7:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
well let me rephrase that..
by sf drift king on Jan 14, 2008 1:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Geren
Geren has already gone on record and said Barton is his starting 1B next year. He and Billy are close so I'm guessing Billy's thinking the same thing.
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 10, 2008 4:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Starting Pitching Pecking Order
Partially determined by their options status too.
DiNardo and Meyer are both out of option years. They have to remain with the big club, so I'd expect both to be given the opportunity to start.
Eveland has one more option year, so he'll probably start in AAA. (He first arrived in the big leagues in '05, but he didn't get sent back down that year after his contract was purchased, so he didn't lose an option year that season).
Assuming health (ha!) I'd virtually guarantee you the current pecking order is something like this, in large part because of the options.
Joe Blanton
Rich Harden
Chad Gaudin
Duke
DiNardo/Meyer tied for fifth
Amongst Eveland, Gio Gonzalez, Greg Smith, and Dallas Braden, all of them have something to prove in AAA still, IMHO. More importantly, unlike the fringy guys above them on the pecking order - DiNardo and Meyer - they can remain in AAA. Thus, remain they will...at least until Blanton is traded, injuries occur, or the experiments at the back end of the rotation flame out.
Then we have the 'pen: Street, Embree, Calero, Brown, Casilla, Fernando Hernandez (Rule 5), Lugo. Brown and Lugo both have an option year remaining, so they'll shuttle up and down if need be. But the other five are locked in on the big league roster if they are still A's come April - again, because of service time/options/Rule 5 rules, etc.
Braden and Eveland are the emergency spot-start guys from AAA.
Blevins can shuttle up from Sac if a guy gets hurt in the pen, or if it gets thin after a Street/Embree trade.
It's still a very watchable team. To me it's exciting because there are so many unknowns. Lots of guys have an opportunity to create value for themselves themselves and secure future wealth. Can Duke become a starter and one day garner a Jason Marquis contract? Can Dan Meyer stay healthy and be a major league starter? Does Lenny D have more 4.00 ERA pixie dust in his pants pocket?
These are much, much more exciting things to find out, IMHO, than paying huge sums for the KNOWN mediocrity of the FA market.
But then again, that's why I'm not a Giants fan.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 9, 2008 9:06 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I would kinda like to deal DiNardo
He might be decent in the bullpen, but I think he is simular to Kirk Saarloos. He had success, but it seemed fluky, and I don't think it will continue.
by Zonis on Jan 9, 2008 9:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
He never had much of a fastball, lest any other pitch. Hopefully Beane can deal him for better prospects than what he got for Saarloos.
by muffinpryde on Jan 10, 2008 4:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Duke doesn't have much of a fastball.
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 10, 2008 4:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Offspeed
by muffinpryde on Jan 10, 2008 4:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Lenny D has a changeup and a curve
Duke has a curve and a cutter.
I can't see much of a difference as far as offspeed goes.
by PaulThomas on Jan 10, 2008 4:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Exp
by muffinpryde on Jan 10, 2008 5:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I would rather have
a 2.00 to 2.70 ERA Setup man than another 4.20 to 4.40 ERA Starter. We have a LOT of those.
by Zonis on Jan 11, 2008 1:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well,
I don't have a lot of them. Dunno about you. If you have a few pitchers in your closet, maybe you could lend them to Oakland?
(Sorry. That "we" thing gets me every time.)
Seriously speaking: right now, I'm not sure who Oakland has other than the three established guys (Harden, Blanton, Gaudin) who can really be counted on to produce average or better ERAs for the MLB team. And saying Harden can be "counted on" is... optimistic.
But I think the real reason they want Duke starting is to make him a more attractive trade chip.
by PaulThomas on Jan 11, 2008 5:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 11, 2008 8:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Remember, option status isn't only determined
by years in which a player has played games in the major leagues. Javier Herrera has used at least a couple of options without playing in the majors at all.
Andrew Brown is a good example of this: as far as I can tell, he used 4 options between 2003 and 2006, running him out for this year (and I specifically remember that he's out, because the A's were very careful about deciding to bring him up after acquiring him in trade).
I couldn't for the life of me figure out if Lugo had any left, but I wouldn't worry about it overmuch-- he might clear waivers to the minors anyway.
Re: Eveland and Braden, I'm not sure what they have left to prove in AAA. Eveland's been lights-out for two straight seasons down there, and Braden had a K:BB ratio of better than 4 to 1 last year.
My predicted opening day rotation is still
Blanton
Gaudin
Meyer
Eveland
DiNardo
with Braden and Blevins competing for the job of "2nd bullpen lefty."
by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2008 10:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Pitching next year will be wierd
You have a mix of players out of options, players already tendered contracts, and players you'd like on the MLB squad.
I'd say our opening day staff will look something like;
Joe Blanton
Rich Harden (Opening Day, remember)
Chad Gaudin
Dana Eveland
Dan Meyer
Huston Street
Justin Duchscherer
Alan Embree
Kiko Calero
Lenny DiNardo
Andrew Brown
Fernando Hernandez
Question, of course, is if Casilla is out of options as well. Blevins won't be on the MLB squad because of the crunch, and the same might be true of Braden, depending on if HE is out of options as well. A lot of this could change if Blanton, Street, Duke, Embree and/or Calero are traded.
by Zonis on Jan 9, 2008 10:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Casilla is out of options
Braden has two option years left. He will be used this year as Windsor/Komine once were - 40-man roster guy who can be called up to make a few emergency when a pitcher goes on the 15-day DL, and will hopefully blossom into something more eventually.
See post above.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 9, 2008 10:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't need to be reminded of how options work
I understand them better than both of you.
Eveland still has an option year. It's been misreported here a few times before, but he still has one.
The explanation for why he still has one is above.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 9, 2008 10:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You have 3 Options right?
According to The Baseball Cube, Eveland was invited to Spring Training in 2005, sent down to Huntsville (1), and called up to the big league club later that year. He was invited to Spring Training again in 2006, sent down to Nashville (2) and recalled later in the year. In 2007, he was again invited to Spring Training, Sent to Tuscon (3), and recalled for a couple games later that year.
Thats 3 right?
by Zonis on Jan 9, 2008 10:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Eveland...
Eveland had a great minor league campaign in AAA in the first half of '05, and his contract was purchased by the big club in July of '05. However - and this is the key part - because he stayed with the major league team for the remainder of the season, and never went back down, '05 doesn't count as an option year.
Thus, he "used options" in '06 and '07 only. '08 will be his third and final option year.
You are right about the three option years, Z. I'm sorry I was snippy. No excuse. My bad.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 9, 2008 10:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
woohoo!
i don't have to put this in the back of the closet with the others just yet. =P
by gotgreen on Jan 9, 2008 9:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I want a Duke bobblehead!
And I think the bobblehead options are slim pickins this year. It could be all retro, Rollie Fingers, Rickey Henderson, etc.
by batgirl on Jan 10, 2008 1:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
they'll save rickey for after he's in the hall
but fingers is a possibility this year.
by xbhaskarx on Jan 10, 2008 1:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I already have a Rickey bobblehead ...
of course, he looks white ... and is wearing a Surf Dawgs uniform ... but its pieces like that that make a collection truly special ...
Besides, they're waiting until he get inducted, they'll have a Rickey weekend with a Rickey bobblehead one day and a Rickey something else (statue? base? batting gloves?) the other ...
by devo on Jan 10, 2008 1:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
absolutely
i attended that game. rickey said "rickey darker than that" on the radio when asked about the bobblehead. priceless.
by flipgatey3 on Jan 10, 2008 7:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A SD ANer got it for me ...
couldn't make it down for that game ... though I did catch a game during the Surf Dawgs' brief existence.
by devo on Jan 10, 2008 8:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm really tempted to use that as my sigline
by monkeyball on Jan 11, 2008 10:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
feel free
by flipgatey3 on Jan 11, 2008 12:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
standing on its own, it's a little off-color
by monkeyball on Jan 11, 2008 12:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I want a Gonzalez Gonzalez bobblehead
by monkeyball on Jan 10, 2008 1:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Question
if we decline Embree's option after 2008, and he qualifies for Type A or B FA status, can we still offer arbitration and get a draft pick?
by Zonis on Jan 9, 2008 10:41 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Sure
Seems kind of pointless, though. Wouldn't it be better to just pick up the option and then trade him?
by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2008 10:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The question is if we'd get more in a trade
than the 1 or two draft picks we could get.
by Zonis on Jan 9, 2008 11:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd have to think so
I'll admit that I have no data to back up my conclusion, but I'd be inclined to think that one late-first-round pick with a year of pro ball under his belt is worth two straight out of amateurs. The draft is just such an uncertain process.
Your average late-first-round pick with a year of decent play in the books is probably around a B/B- prospect on the Sickels scale. Unless Embree tanks next season, I'd think he'd command that-- and if he does, he probably won't be a compensable free agent anyway.
by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2008 11:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And if he does...
He'll be the perfect mid-season pick-up for another team. Unless he tanks, I cannot see any way the guy will finish 2008 with the A's --- unless Street is traded and he becomes the closer by default.
by richwol on Jan 10, 2008 12:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i think you let the team that acquires him
pick up the option, but that's just me.
i'll have to give the same disclaimer that you posted (no data to back this up) but i think the worth of the late first round pick probably averages out to less than a league average player– maybe more like replacement level.
that, plus your point that he may not be compensable as a FA, means he's going to be more valuable in a mid season trade, where he'd certainly get back some low level prospect the A's like.
by rebus on Jan 10, 2008 2:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
trade and money
How much money do the A's save by trading Embree in July and getting one prospect as apossed to free agent's two picks? Say they save paying .7 million in his pay and they do not have to sign the two picks at about 1.5 million for both. Beane may look at this a saving 2.2 million and having one good prospect that is further along than the two college picks.
by dougald1 on Jan 10, 2008 6:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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