no question.

Thinking about it a bit more, I don't really see the value in creating a separate category for guys like him. Since, for the most part, a propensity to injuries for specific players (especially position players) aren't that predictable, it's not really fair to say the team (train issues aside) didn't draft well because a player's development was slowed by injury. If anything, it almost speaks better of the organization that they were able to keep the player valuable.

I assume you're including ML backups as Fringe ... makes sense to me, as, often, the difference is more about opportunity than talent.

It might make the thing unwieldy, but it would make sense to have a "star" category.

The Yankees had a silly good 2006 draft -- Chamberlain, Kennedy, Betances. Most of the rest came from Latin America.

The Red Sox had an even better 2005 -- Bucholz, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Bowden, Hansen. Came up big in the later rounds in 2006, as well.

Neither team has much of a track record -- so while their systems are currently very impressive, right now there's not enough data to suggest much more than each having a single good draft.

Here's how BA has ranked the 2 farm systems from 2007-2001:

Boston: 9th, 8th, 21st, 23rd, 27th, 28th, 24th

NY Yankees: 7th, 17th, 24th, 27th, 17th, 5th, 7th

The Yankees' resurgence was built around 2004 1st rounder Philip Hughes and paying above slot bonuses to Kennedy, Chamberlain, Melancon, Betances and Curtis. Heading into 2007 Betances, Chamberlain and Kennedy ranked as NY's 4th, 5th and 6th best prospects. Betances, an 8th round draft pick got a $1 million signing bonus. Kennedy, the 21st overall pick in 2006, signed for a $2.25 million bonus. That was $750,000 more then the 20th overall pick made. Chamberlain signed for $1.1 million, that was $250,000 more then the guy before him signed for.

Boston hit a HR in the 2005 draft, landing 4 guys who'd make up their Top 10 heading into 2007. Of course last year they also committed $103 million on their #1 prospect, Daisuke Matsuzaka.

well, maybe I will.

why, yes, I did ... what do you know?

4 Quality MLers
Swisher, Blanton, Street, Buck
1 Decent MLer
Teahen
3 AAAAers that have made their MLB debut
Brown, Putnam, Quintanilla
3 who are still prospects
Pennington, Powell, Robnett
5 who have amounted to nothing
Sullivan, Snyder, McCurdy, Fritz, Oberchain

If you'd like to provide any data beyond the first round, I'd love to see it. If you're just offering your opinion, I think it makes more sense to assume that the data from the first round is fairly representative of their drafts overall.

I have no idea what represents an average or good return outside of the first/suppl round, but from 2002 to 2004, the later rounds brought:
Suzuki, Windsor, Melillo, Blasi, Braden, Robertson, Ethier, Pruitt (why not?), Murphy, Burton, Komine

Although the more I dig, the more I think I've got a better topic elsewhere.

If you look at Boston's Top 10 for 2008 the only non-1st/2nd round picks in the group were either paid well beyond slot or as FA out of the D.R.

#3 Lars Anderson: 18th rnd pick signed for $825K

#6 Ryan Kalish: 9th round pick signed for $600K

#9 Oscar Tejada: FA from the D.R. signed for $525K

#10 Josh Reddick: 17th round pick signed for $140K

The A's would almost have to hit with every 1st and 2nd round pick thet have to just match what teams like Boston is doing.

I vaguely recall THT having some stuff as well.

I believe that the most accurate way of evaluating a team's draft success in any given year is to compare the player(s) taken in a particular draft slot to the next 10 or so players taken subsequently.  

2002 is so interesting in retrospect because so many of the best players from the first few rounds were taken in the middle of the first round.  

The A's got Swisher at #16, then Blanton at #24, then the Giants picked Cain at #25, then the A's picked bust John McCurdy at #26... and then the next players of note drafted were #31 Greg Miller (who hasn't pitched in MLB yet), #34 Dan Meyer, #39 Mark Teahan, #44 Joey Votto (5 years later looks good), #50 Micah Owings (who didn't sign), #55 David Bush, #57 John Lester, #60 Johnathon Broxton, #61 Jesse Crain, #64 Brian McCann, #68 Chris Snyder, #74 Elijah Dukes, #80 Curtis Granderson, #97 Dan Ortmeier

So of the next 75 players chosen after Matt Cain, you get two studs in McCann and Granderson, a couple of guys who still have some luster in Votto and Lester, two other position player starters in Teahen and Chris Snyder, two very good relievers in Broxton and Crain, one back of the rotation guy in David Bush, and 5 other guys who have a bit of upside still...

That's what, 13/75 success rate overall?  and that's being charitable to some of those guys?  

The way I look at the 2002 draft, they were 2/2 in the loaded part of the draft, and then were 1/7 (Teahen) through round three after that, not including using Bill Murphy to trade for a MLB starter, or having cheap control of Jeremey Brown as the emergency catcher.  And they didn't spend much money on several of these guys.