Community Rankings - A's top 30 Prospects
by Zonis on Jan 7, 2008 7:51 PM PST
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PrintBefore the inevitable Blanton, Street and Ellis trades, and before Baseball America releases their list, I thought it would be nice to see what all of AN what they thought our top prospect list would look like? Instead of limiting it to simply the top 10, which would produce much the same results from everyone, I thought I would expand it to the top 30.
For your list, you may include grades if you want. You may also divide the list into 2 list of 15, one for Pitchers and one for Position Players, if you believe that Pitchers and Hitters are too difficult to compare side by side.
For Reference, SBNation's own John Sickles gave us his list for the A's prospects, updated for the Nick Swisher trade.
- Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Grade B+
- Gio Gonzalez, LHP, Grade B+
- Fautino De Los Santos, RHP, Grade B+
- Daric Barton, 1B, Grade B+
- Brett Anderson, LHP, Grade B+
- Chris Carter, 1B, Grade B+
- James Simmons, RHP, Grade B
- Henry Alberto Rodriguez, RHP, Grade B (big-time sleeper, great arm)
- Trevor Cahill, RHP, Grade B-
- Aaron Cunningham, OF, Grade B-
- Corey Brown, OF, Grade B-
- Andrew Bailey, RHP, Grade B- (another sleeper with an aggressive grade)
- Sean Doolittle, 1B, Grade B-
- Javier Herrera, OF, Grade C+ (great tools, but refinement??)
- Dan Meyer, LHP, Grade C+
- Greg Smith, LHP, Grade C+
- Sam Demel, RHP, Grade C+
- Andrew Carignan, RHP, Grade C+
- Grant Desme, OF, Grade C+
- Travis Banwart, RHP, Grade C+
- Josh Horton, SS, Grade C+
- Jermaine Mitchell, OF, Grade C
Grade C guys interchangeable with some above include Jeff Baisley, Graham Godfrey, Dan Hamblin, Aaron Jenkins, Brad Kilby, Vince Mazzaro, Kevin Melillo, Cliff Pennington, Landon Powell (who could be a Grade B if he could stay healthy), Jason Ray, Richie Robnett, Justin Sellers, and the enigmatic Matt Sulentic.
Where Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein gives us his, spliced together after the Swisher trade.
Kevin Goldstein
Five-Star Prospects
- Daric Barton, 1B
- Carlos Gonzalez, OF
- Fautino De Los Santos RHP
Four-Star Prospects
- Gio Gonzalez LHP
- Brett Anderson, LHP
- Trevor Cahill, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
- Chris Carter, 1B
- James Simmons, RHP
- Aaron Cunningham, OF
- Henry Rodriguez, RHP
- Andrew Bailey, RHP
- Corey Brown, OF
- Jermaine Mitchell, OF
- Javier Herrera, OF
- Jerry Blevins, LHP
Two-Star Prospects
- Josh Horton, SS
- Sean Doolittle, 1B
- Ryan Sweeney OF
So what would be AN's Top 30 Prospect list? You will have to dig a little deeper than these two. Personally, I think they left off some interesting prospects, such as Alex Arnold Leon, Craig Italiano and in Sickles case, Jeremey Blevins.
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Crikey
C'mon... we're going to have to do this a week from now, can't this wait?
We are?
Is that when BA rankings come out?
I think we're waiting
for the Blanton/Ellis shoes to drop. BA rankings for the A's come out on January 30th.
by BWH on Jan 7, 2008 8:20 PM PST up reply actions
My Top 30 Rankings
- SP Fautino De Los Santos
- 1B Daric Barton
- OF Carlos Gonzalez
- SP Gio Gonzalez
- SP Brett Anderson
- SP Trevor Cahill
- OF Aaron Cunningham
- SP Henry Alberto Rodriguez
- 1B Chris Carter
- SP James Simmons
- SP Alex Arnold Leon
- OF Corey Brown
- SP Andrew Bailey
- OF Jermaine Mitchell
- SP Craig Italiano
- RP Jeremey Blevins
- SP Jared Lansford
- 1B Sean Doolittle
- SS Gregorio Petit
- SP Greg Smith
- SP Dan Meyer
- RP Sam Demel
- SS Josh Horton
- OF Grant Desme
- C1 Landon Powell
- OF Matt Sulentic
- SP Vince Mazzaro
- RP Jason Ray
- SP Travis Banwart
- OF Richie Robnett
Notables left off the list include: Danny Putnam, Kevin Melillo, Jeremey Brown, Andrew Carignan, Anthony Recker, Jeff Basiley, Justin Sellers and Cliff Pennington.
Donde esta Javier?
No te gusta Herrera?
Both Sickels and Goldstein have him at 14, which sounds about right to me. Not only did Herrera fail to make your Top 30, but not even an honorable mention? Por que?
While I no longer agree with others who have him ranked as high as eighth, I certainly think he's still at least 20-25 guy. Also, Cunningham at seven, I see. Interesting.
by RyanFromBonas on Jan 7, 2008 10:44 PM PST up reply actions
Question for Zonis
Why Lansford so high? I would love to see Carney's son do well, but I have not seen a single report or talked to a single scout who thinks he is anything but a bust. Gut feeling, or have you heard something to give you confidence?
by BlameChannel53 on Jan 7, 2008 11:55 PM PST up reply actions
I just feel that if he stays healthy,
he could be good. And I have a feeling that he might succede if the A's decide to convert him back to 3rd Base. He's still young enough, and he was expected to be drafted as a 3B anyways. And its not like we have anyone in the system at 3B.
Fair enough
by BlameChannel53 on Jan 8, 2008 7:42 AM PST up reply actions
i always wondered about this
the guy f---ing smashed in high school. i played showcases against him. i never understood why he got drafted as a pitcher.
I guess we could think of him as a college
draft pick now. He attended the school of hard knocks...
as opposed to Hannahan ...
... who got f---ing smashed in high school.
Bailey
Anyone know much about Andrew Bailey's delivery? I hear its pretty violent. I hope the guy can stay healthy long term because I think he could be a major sleeper. I know he had TJ in college.
by Sigur Ros on Jan 8, 2008 11:56 AM PST up reply actions
Not sure
The guy can amp it, though. Mid-90s heater.
OK, this is driving me up the wall
It's Jerry Blevins. Jerry. Like, Brown. Seinfeld. Springer.
It's a very simple name. It's even spelled out, correctly, in Goldstein's list.
I like how Zonis somehow not only misread his name, but managed to come up with an idiosyncratic spelling of "Jeremy" on top of that...
Hm, that looks overly cranky
and since I'm apparently on the verge of getting banned for sarcasm... I'll put in a disclaimer. This was intended to be wryly humorous, not asinine. I'd edit it, but I can't... sorry Zonis.
jeremy, like brown?
I'm glad you said it
Mission accomplished without me having to look like a nazi. :)
But the real question is:
Does this mean we're more likely to sign Baremy Bonds?
My list
1. 1B Daric Barton
2. OF Carlos Gonzalez
3. SP Fautino De Los Santos
4. SP Gio Gonzalez
5. SP Brett Anderson
6. SP Trevor Cahill
7. 1B Chris Carter
8. SP Henry Alberto Rodriguez
9. OF Aaron Cunningham
10. SP James Simmons
11. SP Andrew Bailey
12. SP Alex Arnold Leon
13. SP Craig Italiano
14. OF Corey Brown
15. SP Jared Lansford
16. SS Gregorio Petit
17. RP Jerry Blevins
18. OF Javier Herrera
19. 1B Sean Doolittle
20. OF Jermaine Mitchell
21. SP Dan Meyer
22. SP Greg Smith
23. C1 Landon Powell
24. OF Matt Sulentic
25. SS Josh Horton
26. SP Vince Mazzaro
27. RP Jason Ray
28. SP Travis Banwart
29. RP Andrew Carignan
30. OF Richie Robnett
Future Athletic Prospect List (2.0)
I based this off my top 21 prospect list with revisions based on the feedback I got. I'm keeping J.D. Pruitt...Mwa ha ha!
- Daric Barton (1B/DH)
- Fautino De Los Santos (RHP/SP)
- Gio Gonzalez (LHP/SP)
- Carlos Gonzalez (CF/RF)
- Trevor Cahill (SP/RHP)
- Brett Anderson (SP/LHP)
- Chris Carter (DH)
- Javier Herrera (CF)
- Henry Rodriguez (SP/RHP)
- Corey Brown (OF)
- Greg Smith (SP/LHP)
- Landon Powell (C)
- Vince Mazzaro (SP/RHP)
- Andrew Bailey (SP/RHP)
- Sam Demel (RP/RHP)
- Sean Doolittle (1B)
- James Simmons (SP/RHP)
- Jared Lansford (SP/RHP)
- Arnold Leon (SP/RHP)
- Jermaine Mitchell (OF)
- Craig Italiano (SP/RHP)
- Jerry Blevins (RP/LHP)
- Mike Mitchell (RP/RHP)
- Josh Horton (SS)
- Aaron Cunningham (OF)
- Dan Meyer (SP/LHP)
- Andrew Carignan (RP/RHP)
- Graham Godfrey (SP/RHP)
- Ryan Sweeney (OF)
- J.D. Pruitt (OF)
My subjective list, with comments
- Fautino de los Santos: Highest ceiling pitcher in the system since Harden. Gets batters to swing and miss in the strike zone, which is a classic mark of an elite power pitcher.
- Carlos Gonzalez: Worst case for him is essentially Jay Payton, which ain't bad. Upside is Gardy Sizemore or Carlos Beltran.
- Daric Barton: He has to hit for power to be a star, but six years of above average offense for cheap has real value.
- Chris Carter: If only we could combine Barton and Carter into one player. This guy can be the elite power hitter the A's have failed to develop recently.
- Anderson: I have seen him pitch a couple of times, and he is by far the A's most polished pitching prospect. Scouts and managers love his poise on the mound.
- Cahill: Better velocity than Anderson, but his delivery is not as clean, his command and control are not as sharp, and scouts have commented that his focus appears to waiver at times.
- Henry Rodriquez: Elite stuff, but needs more command. May end up as a reliever, but he could be Manny Corpas as a reliever.
- Gio Gonzalez: Close to major league ready, but I am not a big fan. I think he is more of a 3/4/5 pitcher. Nice guy to have in a system, but I don't like him as much as Sickels and Goldstein do.
- Aaron Cunningham: Very anxious to see him more.
- Jermaine Mitchell: Underrated prospect. Good defense in CF and is more toolsy than the typical A's college pick.
- James Simmons: He needs a breaking pitch if he is going to be a MLB starter, but he would make a nice reliever if that pitch doesn't develop.
- Josh Horton: It's a wtf placement, but I really like him and I think he will hit very well for a middle infielder. If he can stay at SS I think he will be one of our best prospects in a year or two. This is a gut feel placement.
- Landon Powell: His knees probably preserve Suzuki's role as catcher of the future, but if he ends up as 1B/DH it would not shock me if he outhit both Barton and Carter. He can really hit, and his offense would likely improve without the demands of being a catcher.
- Andrew Bailey: Good stuff and good numbers so far. I want to see this guy more.
- Corey Brown: Power potential is obvious, but he has to improve his contact skills or he will be a bust.
- Alex Leon: Young and intriguing. We'll see.
- Craig Italiano: His stuff is not the problem. A healthy year and he shoots up the board next year.
- Ryan Sweeney: Not a fan, but his raw power is there if he can ever find it during games.
- Jerry Blevins: Tells you how deep this system is when a guy like Blevins is only #19.
- Dan Meyer: It's put up or shut up time.
- Vince Mazzaro: Sleeper.
- Javier Herrera: See Dan Meyer.
- Richie Robnett: See Javier Herrera.
- Matt Sulentic: Too young to give up on.
- Greg Smith: Not sexy, but he has a chance at a MLB career.
- Sam Demel
- Grant Desme
- Travis Banwart
- Andrew Carignan: Way too much effort in his delivery, but college success can't be ignored.
- Sean Doolittle: I don't like 1B prospects without power. Unless he develops power or great on-base skills like Barton I think this was a wasted pick for the A's.
That is an amazingly deep system. Pitchers like Jason Ray and the pitching Mitchell (is he healthy?) and hitters like Recker, Melillo, and Putnam don't even crack the list. I have never been more anxious for the minor league season to start.
Doolittle walked 33 times
in only ~270 PAs and he posted ridiculous bb/k's in college.
Plus he offers ++ defense.
c3pOlerud was a very good player.
What does it say about the guys who came after the guy with the comment, "Not sexy, but he has a chance at a MLB career."
If the best thing you could say about him is that he has a chance at an MLB career and they came after him ...
I like Smith
I just don't think he will be more than a 5th starter or good left-handed reliever. He's above those guys because he's almost major league ready, and I think at worst he gives us a few years of cheap production. My comment did seem a little down on him; what I meant was that he's a guy who could use his command to have a long career in the majors, but has almost no star potential, and that's still a good prospect.
As far as Doolittle goes, Olerud is kind of like Tom Glavine in that every time there is a 1B prospect who lacks power Olerud's name inevitably gets thrown out, just as Glavine's name surfaces whenever there is left-handed pitching prospect without a plus fastball. Olerud was a great player, and I have compared Barton to him in the past because Barton has established that he can consistently hit for average and draw walks. Doolittle has a long way to go before he starts getting Olerud comps from me. He will move up the list if he hits at Kane County/Stockton this year, but for now he's a guy I didn't want us to draft who doesn't project to ever hit for power and who hit .233 at Kane County. Not sure how high I can rank that guy on a subjective list even though people I respect rank him higher.
by BlameChannel53 on Jan 8, 2008 7:30 AM PST up reply actions
Not going to do a whole list
But will add a few that have been largely left off elsewhere.
Sulentic: So, so young, and so, so talented. I'll forgive him his Low-A low-BA glitch this past season, especially as he learned to take a walk and run down a flyball.
Recker: The kid is a moose. Granted, he'll be of limited use to the A's if he can't get going defensively, and if Suzuki doesn't pop a knee in the next few seasons, but he really does resemble Lou Ferrigno.
Robnett: Really happy he's still in the system, because I haven't seen anyone in minor league ball other than maybe Prince Fielder who hits it harder. His problem has obviously been contact, and laying off the junk, but if Robnett and Recker can step it up to the major league level, there's your 3-4 combo for five years.
Jimmy Shull: Remember back when he was the great white hope of the organization? Tommy John cut him down, then he had an injury while coming back that ended last season early... got to be a longshot after missing two seasons of development, but before he went down with problems, he was the best damn pitching prospect period.
Nick Blasi: The forgotten man of the PCL Champs of 2007. Blasi leapfrogged two levels of development entirely and stuck in AAA ball, despite coming with no hype whatsoever. And then he destroyed all comers, all season long, to take the MVP of the Series. Developed power, can take a walk, steal a base, and lets nobody down in the outfield. He's GOT to be considered as about ready for a cup of coffee if he can start this season like he ended last.
maybe it's just me...
but I'm not nearly as optimistic about Sulentic as everyone else. I think that he's a kid who hit really well in high school, and has a pretty swing, but maybe just can't hit at the level we expected. It's still far, far too early to pass judgment on him, though.
by Ryan Armbrust on Jan 8, 2008 2:26 AM PST up reply actions
The thing you have to remember
Compare his stats to, say, Dan Johnson at the same level, and with several years less in age and experience behind him, Sulentic hit basically as well last season as DJ did back in '01.
Yes, DJ hit more dingers, and yes, Sulentic hit better in short season a year earlier, but he also took a bunch more walks and drove in a bunch more runs in '07 than he did in '06.
Take away his early season Kane County slump, and 2007 is a positive step in his development.
Please Remember . . .
. . . that the low minors are learing arenas for these kids. Especially high school kids. They all will find roadblocks and their success well depend on overcoming them. Sulentic appears to be one of these. Too early to downgrade or consider a star. Still, a player of emense potential
by jarforcefatherofforce on Jan 8, 2008 4:01 PM PST up reply actions
you know...
I can't say I disagree with anything you said.
I suppose I didn't really say what I meant earlier. When I said that "I'm not nearly as optimistic about Sulentic as everyone else", I didn't mean that I don't think the kid has a good shot at being a contributor at the MLB level. I'm just not so enthralled with what he's shown us so far. To be fair, I haven't had any opportunity to actually see him hit, as he had just been sent back to Vancouver when I was in Kane County for the first time last year.
All in all, I still think, when it comes to potential, Sulentic is one of the top five hitters in the system. But, I'm not nearly so sure that he can approach that potential as I am about ten other hitters.
Oh, and Oz, I'll be making a trip up to Vancouver this summer, thanks to a free ticket I have on Southwest Airlines. When's the best time of year to come see a game? (i.e., when is it not going to have a 50% chance of getting rained out?)
by Ryan Armbrust on Jan 8, 2008 6:46 PM PST up reply actions
There's a time of year
when there isn't a 50% chance of rain in Vancouver?
Sun's been out here for the last two days.
(And, of course, in the time it took me to type that, it started to rain. Doh.)
Dude!
Also, if you miss the first month, you avoid the 'no stars have signed yet so here's some dudes from the 35th round' days.
That said, Canada Day (July 1) usually means a sold out stadium and decent fireworks afterwards, not to mention much beer consumed. Always a great game to get to.
So if you can only do a few days, do July 1-2. If you can do a couple more, make your arrival somewhere after June 27 and you'll get the three day home stand against Eugene (Padres affiliate: Jun 27-29) and the two day homer against Everett (Mariners affiliate: July 1-2), with a day game likely to be thrown into the mix.
Or, if you're looking to be sure to see as many draftees as possible, and you're down for a few home games and an Everett road trip, make it July 31 - August 4 and we can convoy down to Washington State for a day or two.
And don't worry about accommodation. The couch is comfortable.
Can Blasi play CF?
my top 10
- Daric Barton
- Gio Gonzalez
- Carlos Gonzalez
- Fautino de los Santos
- Trevor Cahill
- Chris Carter
- Brett Anderson
- Corey Brown
- James Simmons
- Henry A. Rodriguez
Although, I'm not big on lists. All of those guys should be at least average major-leaguers, and I'm not sure how I'd rank a pitcher vs. a hitter, anyway.
Also, if anyone's interested, I just posted an interview I did with Trevor Cahill. It turns out that he's a big fan of Neil Young, loved "No Country For Old Men", and is being encouraged to work on his knuckle-curve...
http://mvn.com/milb-athletics/2008/0...
about the average major leaguers thing
Are you talking right now or when they are ready?
aside from barton
almost none of them would be average right now. and he said at least average, not average (but also "should be")...
here's mine
1 1b Daric Barton
2 lhp Gio Gonzales
3 of Carlos Gonzales
4 rhp Fautino de los Santos
5 rhp Trevor Cahill
6 rhp James Simmons
7 1b Chris Carter
8 lhp Brett Anderson
9 of Aaron Cunningham
10 of Corey Brown
11 rhp Henry Alberto Rodriguez
12 rhp Andrew Bailey
13 of Jermaine Mitchell
14 lhp Jerry Blevins
15 ss Josh Horton
16 1b Sean Doolittle
17 of Grant Desme
18 rhp Vince Mazzaro
19 lhp Greg Smith
20 lhp Dan Meyer
21 rhp Sam Demel
22 rhp Andrew Carignan
23 of Javier Herrera
24 c Anthony Recker
25 of Matt Sulentic
26 c Landon Powell
27 rhp Alex Leon
28 rhp Travis Banwart
29 rhp Craig Italiano
30 2b Kevin Melillo
I left my list on my home computer
so it'll have to wait until this evening.
Just a note: Fernando Hernandez, the A's rule 5 pick, is still currently a "prospect." I haven't seen him on any lists, so I thought I'd throw his name out there.
With some notes
1 1b Daric Barton A- most sure thing star if power comes
2 of Carlos Gonzales B+ should be decent, might be star
3 lhp Gio Gonzales B+ Could be Zito, might be bust we should have a good idea which one this year
4 lhp Brett Anderson B+ Long time before majors, but should be at least decent SP in majors which is very valuable
5 rhp Fautino de los Santos B+ (A arm but too far away for top spots) Harden minus injuries?
6 rhp Trevor Cahill B+ needs to work on command, pitcher of the year comes in as 4th this year!
7 1b Chris Carter B RH power, mmm.... defense issues
8 rhp James Simmons B- Similar to Brett Anderson but worse numbers so far
9 of Aaron Cunningham B- interesting stats
10 rhp Henry Alberto Rodriguez B- next Jairo / Santiago Casilla? Hope he can be starter or closer
11 of Corey Brown C+ Toolsy dude
12 of Jermaine Mitchell C+
13 lhp Dan Meyer C+ was once better prospect than Haren pitched better last year so hopefully injuries are gone.
14 lhp Greg Smith C+ should be useful as swingman / middle reliever
15 lhp Jerry Blevins C+ could be set-up guy
16 ss Josh Horton C+ Suzuki type hitter at SS (but with more walks)?
19 of Ryan Sweeney C+ 4th or 5th OF type has lost top prospect feel
17 of Javier Herrera C good upside but no breakout year yet
18 c/dh/1b Landon Powell C power potential, but knees haven't handled C
20 ss Cliff Pennington C still young
21 2b Kevin Melillo C utility guy?
22 1b Sean Doolittle C needs more power or else AAAA player
23 rhp Andrew Bailey C needs to find strike zone more often
24 rhp Alex Leon C
25 rhp Travis Banwart C interesting #'s
26 of Matt Sulentic C was he working on other things and hitting slacked?
27 c Anthony Recker C- old for his levels
28 rhp Vince Mazzaro C- too many walks
29 rhp Andrew Carignan C- too many walks
30 rhp Craig Italiano C- too many walks
Top 30
1.) 1B Daric Barton (BB, K and LD numbers were all excellent throughout the minors at a very young age. A natural hitter.)
2.) OF Carlos Gonzalez
3.) SP Gio Gonzalez (there are things to be weary of here, but his performance was superb for a 21 yr old in AA)
4.) SP Fauti De Los Santos
5.) SP Trevor Cahill (absolutely can't wait to see what he does this season)
6.) SP Brett Anderson
7.) 1B Chris Carter
8.) OF Aaron Cunningham
9.) SP James Simmons
10.) OF Corey Brown (future TTO star)
11.) SP Henry Rodriguez
12.) SP Andrew Bailey
13.) OF Grant Desme (this guy is a huge sleeper)
14.) RP Jerry Blevins
15.) SP Dan Meyer
16.) SS Josh Horton (I think he'll hit better than some expect)
17.) RP Sam Demel
18.) 1B Sean Doolittle (If he played at a premium position I'd be pumped about this guy)
19.) OF Jermaine Mitchell (worry about his K and GB numbers)
20.) SP Travis Banwart
21.) RP Andrew Carignan
22.) OF Ryan Sweeney (not impressed with Sweeney)
23.) OF Javier Herrera
24.) SP Greg Smith (Excellent HR numbers look like a fluke to me given his GB rates)
25.) OF Matt Sulentic
26.) RP Jason Ray
27.) SS Gregorio Petit (great defense, won't hit a lick at ML level)
28.) SP Craig Italiano (could definitely see him come back and shoot up the charts this season)
29.) DH? Landon Powell
30.) OF Richie Robnett (Almost time to give up)
I wanted to include Danny Hamblin as well, who I view as potential Craig Wilson type (before the collapse) but no room.
by Sigur Ros on Jan 8, 2008 11:51 AM PST reply actions
Honest question
and let me acknowledge that you're not the only one to take this position.
16.) SS Josh Horton (I think he'll hit better than some expect)
27.) SS Gregorio Petit (great defense, won't hit a lick at ML level)
What's the basis for these assessments? Petit hit for a higher average than Horton, at a far higher level, with better (though still gimpy) power.
Horton has a nice batting eye, but does that cancel out being 3 levels lower and weaker on defense?
fwiw (almost nothing)
I watched Horton a bit in the CWS and thought he had an unusually excellent swing.
I confess
that its a bit of a hunch. I also had the opportunity to watch Horton a great deal in college where he displayed excellent contact, patience, and a surprising amount of pop given his stature. His swing is a bit unorthodox but its tough to knock the results.
With regards to the age/level argument I think you have to take into consideration that this was Horton's first professional season. I think with college guys years pro is a better benchmark than age.
You certainly make a good point, and personal bias inevitably creeps into this sort of thing. I just think Horton will be a solid ML player, even if it is as a 2B. Its tough to see Petit's bat holding up at AAA and beyond.
by Sigur Ros on Jan 8, 2008 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
I'll jump in
Since I'm the highest Horton promotor on this site. Horton is 3 levels lower, but he is in his first pro season. Petit has been in the minors long enough to show some hitting ability, and has consistently failed to do so. Horton is not as good as Petit defensively, but Petit has to hit for it to matter. I just can't get excited about a guy with poor plate discipline and who slugged .353 at AAA in a "breakout" year.
I think Horton will hit enough to be a .275/.370/.420 guy in the majors, while I think Petit is a .275/.310/.340 guy in the majors. I look at Horton and see a guy that at worst will slide over to 2B and be an above average 2b like Ellis and Aaron Hill have done, and may still be able to stay at SS.
by BlameChannel53 on Jan 8, 2008 12:36 PM PST up reply actions
.284/.307/.404 seems doable to me
Just for reference, that's Yuniesky Betancourt's career hitting line. Petit could also be a significantly better defender than Betancourt. (OK, Petit will probably have a higher OBP and a lower SLG than Betancourt. Certainly a .711 OPS is manageable.)
Seems a little unfair to only cite his AAA SLG in his "breakout year." The season number was .379.
I really can't agree that Petit "has to hit for it to matter." Remember, Adam Everett and John McDonald are major league shortstops.
hell, so is bobby crosby
If Petit hits .275./.310/.340
he won't be a major league shortstop unless the A's are desperate. Everett is Hall of Fame quality as a defender, we'll see if Petit is anywhere close to that. I don't see how Petit gets to a .711 OPS when he has all of Betancourt's hacktastic approach and none of his power. I would love for Petit to prove me wrong, but consider me a strong skeptic.
by BlameChannel53 on Jan 8, 2008 1:05 PM PST up reply actions
If he can hit .272/.329/.380
(Which I think is very realistic)
He should have the glove to be an average to above average SS.
Sounds reasonable
Don't think it will happen, but it's within the realm of possibilities.
by BlameChannel53 on Jan 8, 2008 1:18 PM PST up reply actions
Those are his MiLB career numbers ...
I think it's a reasonable possibility.
None of his power?
Betancourt hit 9 home runs last year in 155 games. The year before he hit 8 in 157.
Petit: 6 in 133, 8 in 137.
I see no significant difference.
re
2 Carlos Gonzalez
3 Fautino De Los Santos
4 Gio Gonzalez
5 Trevor Cahill
6 Brett Anderson
7 Henry Rodriguez
8 James Simmons
9 Aaron Cunningham
10 Chris Carter
11 Andrew Bailey
12 Corey Brown
13 Jermaine Mitchell
14 Sean Doolittle
15 Ryan Sweeney
16 Greg Smith
17 Josh Horton
18 Arnold Leon
19 Andrew Carignan
20 Landon Powell
21 Sam Demel
22 Greg Desme
23 Travis Banwart
24 Jerry Blevins
25 Matt Sulentic
26 Craig Italiano
27 Vince Mazarro
28 Jared Lansford
29 Jason Ray
30 Dan Meyer
I know I left off Herrera and Petit
Interesting take
I agree that Beane largely escaped criticism for the system's incredible weakness before these deals. I am, however, a bit more optimistic about the pitchers we acquired. Take Fautino, for example, from all that I've read his BASEMENT is a closer in the bigs, with his ceiling being a staff ace
by Sigur Ros on Jan 8, 2008 3:18 PM PST up reply actions
I stopped reading
at the point where he criticized the A's for not turning their first-round picks from THIS SEASON into big-league regulars.
Last 6 Drafts
2007: Simmons, Doolittle, Brown -- all considered decent to good prospects -- about the best you can hope for after only a couple of months as pros. Their draft class has posted all of 1 ip in the majors from a guy who will probably be back in AA in 2008.
2006: No 1st/Suppl picks.
2005: Cliff Pennington, Travis Buck -- Pennington has largely been a disappointment but still has some hope as a prospect, Buck has had a successful MLB debut. Only 17 of 48 picks in the 1st/Suppl round have made any MLB appearance. Only 7 of the last 33 (including Buck) have made any MLB appearance.
2004: Powell, Robnett, Putnam, Street -- Putnam and Street have made it to the Bigs, Street has been quite successful. Powell's problem is health, he'd be a very good prospect, otherwise. Robnett is also still a decent prospect. Powell was the first pick in the group, only 5 of the 18 picked at his #24 spot or later have made their debut, two of whom were A's.
2003: Sullivan, Snyder, Quintanilla -- Qunitanilla made the bigs with the Rockies and is a AAAAer, neither of the others has any real value at this point.
2002: Swisher, Blanton, McCurdy, Fritz, Brown, Oberchain, Teahen -- Swisher, Blanton and Teahen have established themselves as average or better Major Leaguers, Brown has made his MLB debut and is a decent AAAAer. Among the other three, only Fritz is still in pro ball and he has no value. All but 2 of the top 19 picks (including Swisher) have made it to MLB. Of the remaining 22 picks, including the A's other 5 picks, 7 have made the Show. 3 of the 7 were drafted by the A's.
So, over the six years he mentioned, the A's have had 19 1st round or supplemental round picks. Five are established Major Leaguers, three are basically AAAA players who have made their MLB debut. Four are still good prospects and two more are decent prospects.
Every draft except 2003 returned much better than average results, considering the A's draft position.
Fourteen of nineteen picks have, thus far, have proved successful. That's, frankly, an INCREDIBLE track record.
tentative, had to make it 32
1 Daric Barton
2 Carlos Gonzalez
3 Gio Gonzalez
4 Fautino De Los Santos
5 Brett Anderson
6 Trevor Cahill
7 Aaron Cunningham
8 Chris Carter
9 Henry Rodriguez
10 Ryan Sweeney
11 James Simmons
12 Corey Brown
13 Andrew Bailey
14 Jerry Blevins
15 Josh Horton
16 Greg Smith
17 Sean Doolittle
18 Gregorio Petit
19 Arnold Leon
20 Vince Mazarro
21 Craig Italiano
22 Jermaine Mitchell
23 Richard Robnett
24 Javier Herrera
25 Travis Banwart
26 Kevin Melillo
27 Greg Desme
28 Matt Sulentic
29 Landon Powell
30 Dan Meyer
31 Pennington
32 Lansford
no room for Demel, Carignan, Hamblin, Alex Valdez, Baisley, Recker, Madsen, Putnam others...
Anyone getting ziggy with it?
No Brad Ziegler? Didn't he have some sort of great rebirth? Surely now is a fine time to see what he has. Potential 7-8th inning guy?
He's on my list
at #22 or thereabouts.
Running top 30
Made without benefit of looking up my previous rankings, so a couple of guys might slide around a little.
Elite:
- Daric Barton: Near certain to be an above-average MLB player. I give that huge weight.
- Fautino De Los Santos: Highest upside of any prospect in the system at this point.
- Carlos Gonzalez: Toolsy.
Very good:
- Trevor Cahill: Love the groundball/strikeout combo. Brandon Webb-like?
- Corey Brown: Yes, I know about the strikeouts (and the wooden head). The guy's a legit five-tool megaprospect if he cuts those down, though.
- Gio Gonzalez: Speaking of strikeouts...
- Andrew Bailey: Ranked here on semi-instinct. I really do like strikeouts... Over Anderson because he's less likely to get hurt.
- James Simmons: See Bailey; lower upside, but also lower risk.
- Brett Anderson: Two healthy seasons with identical stats to the above pair will vault him upward. Gotta worry about that injury nexus though.
- Chris Carter: Best raw power in the system since, what, Chavez?
- Aaron Cunningham: Scouts hate him, but those stats are hard to argue with-- .300 with power?
- Henry Rodriguez: That he's this low shows how far the system has moved forward.
- Alex Arnold Leon: I still have trouble believing this guy is only 19. (Luckily, he's from Mexico, not the D.R.-- so he really is.) If he grows and adds a bit to his low-90s fastball, watch out. Very Street-like, except he dominated the Mexican League instead of the Big 12.
Good:
- Jerry Blevins: Huge strides in control this year and great stuff. Lefty setup guy material. I'd say closer but the thought of lefty closers makes me grind my teeth in my sleep.
- Gregorio Petit: While you weren't looking, he hit over .300 at AA this year. Scutaro-level hitting and outstanding fielding at shortstop makes him an above-average player, and I think he'll reach that level.
- Anthony Recker: Easy to sleep on, but catchers take longer than other players to develop.
- Fernando Hernandez: Rule 5 pick will try to emulate Duchscherer's career path as a soft-tossing righty. He's apparently got the head for it.
Average:
- Jermaine Mitchell: I'm very troubled by what the decision to keep him at KC all year tells us.
- Craig Italiano: Instructional league reports were great.
- Vince Mazzaro: Then again, Mazzaro pitched at a higher (and deeply anti-pitcher) level and actually held his own this year.
- Landon Powell: This is assuming he's playing DH; if he can return to catching he jumps to about #7 on the list; even playing third takes him to about #14. As pure DH prospects go, he's a good one: switch-hitting, good power and plate discipline.
- Brad Ziegler: Just throw out the pre-2007 stats. He's literally a different player.
- Ryan Sweeney: Good tools, bad attitude and stalling numbers say a lot about him, and none of it's good.
- Andrew Carignan: A real gamer with poor raw stuff; could jump if he can command an offspeed pitch.
- Sam Demel: Rough start to his pro career.
- Sean Doolittle: Not as rough as this guy, though. Gets bumped down a bunch for being "the same" (except not as good) as Daric Barton.
- Matt Sulentic: Vile numbers at Kane County suggest he was rushed. The good thing about HS prospects is that they get a mulligan year.
Mediocre:
- Kevin Melillo: My exuberant optimism in my last list has cooled with reports of crummy defense. Still a useful guy as the strong side of a platoon.
- Josh Horton: Ignore that "SS," he's a second baseman. Good strike zone discipline, but I'm not sure his upside exceeds Jack Hannahan's-- and Hannahan is already a major leaguer.
- Danny Hamblin: College senior may have been too good for Vancouver. Same strikeout problems (but also same power) as Corey Brown, but older and without the speed or outfield ability.
Also-rans: Brad Kilby, Jared Lansford, Jason Fernandez, Mike Mitchell, Jeff Gray, Danny Putnam, Jeff Baisley, Cliff Pennington, Richie Robnett
Im going on record about Desme also
I share season tickets with a good friend to Cal Poly San Luis Obispo baseball. He went to a game that I did not attend and was talking to a few scouts that thought Desme was not only better then Brown but they thought he may be one of the best outfieders in the draft. He was the Big West POTY. I watched this kid hit .405/.494/.733 with 15 homeruns and 17 doubles in 195 at bats. He has a very strong arm, gets great jumps on the ball, can steal bases. Desme if healthy will be moving way up some of these list come 2009.
#$%@
Knew I was forgetting someone. I left Greg Smith off, too.
Er, OK, let's call Smith #20, bumping everyone else down a notch, and Desme #28, making Sulentic and Melillo the new #s 29 and 30. Desme is another one of those guys, like Doolittle, who gets the "buried on the depth chart penalty."
What about Dan Meyer?
Still has rookie status, I believe, and does appear on some lists.
Hard to know where to place him on such a deep list, and also hard to get that excited given the thick miasma of disappointment that now accompanies him, but I still hold significant hopes for the guy. He appears to have got his velocity back and to have held up without injury this past year. He clearly still has strikeout stuff. I believe I've read, although I don't know where I got this so maybe I'm just making it up, that velocity tends to come back after injury (when it comes back at all) before the ability to command that velocity does. Certainly his walk and hit totals indicate he was missing too frequently both inside and outside of the strike zone, but he appears to have (most of) his stuff back. Maybe results will follow. Surely he's a lot more likely to be a significant contributor than, say, Kevin Melillo.
I thought he was on there
Guess not. I just don't think of him as a "prospect."
He should probably be in there at #18, which bumps Melillo off the list. It also breaks one tie in the community list (Carignan drops to #28) and creates another (Lansford and Sulentic tie for #30)
Prospects
With as many prospects in the system, it might be time for AN to separate Pitchers & Hitters.
Pitchers:
- DLS
- Gio Gonzalez
- Brett Anderson
- Trevor Cahill
- Henry Rodriguez
- James Simmons
- Andrew Bailey
- AA Leon
- Greg Smith
- Jerry Blevins
- Craig Italiano
- Vince Mazzaro
- Jared Lansford
- Travis Banwart
- Brad Ziegler (Might be the 1st on the list to make it to The Show - A bullpen job is there for the taking)
Others: Dan Meyer, Sam Demel, Andrew Carignan, F. Hernandez (RuleV), Michael Madsen, Jason Ray
** I believe that MiLB Starters should be graded higher than MiLB Relievers... except in rare cases (Street, etc) **
by Colorado Fan on Jan 9, 2008 10:26 AM PST up reply actions
Aaron Jenkins
41 strikeouts in 22 innings. Had a rough stretch in the middle of the season but sure does strike out a lot. Was in Vancouver.
Strikeouts aren't much help
when you're walking a batter an inning.
Sure, if you never throw anything in the strike zone, sometimes guys will swing at it and strike out, but that's not going to work at higher levels of play.
He's obviously got some wicked stuff ...
to be striking that many guys out. He'll have to learn to control it -- but he's starting from a good place.
It worked for Henry Rodriguez
IP k's BB
In 06 Henry 43.2 59 50 (more than one an inning)
in 07 Henry 99.2 106 59
Now I'm not saying Jenkins will do exactly the same. But it could happen.
OK, I've assembled the "community list"
via a straight Borda count of the votes each player has received (30 points for 1st, 29 for 2nd, etc.). We have 10 lists and 3 partial lists so far including the experts.
- Barton 384 (10)
- C. Gonzalez 372 (1)
- De Los Santos 364 (2)
- G. Gonzalez 355
- Cahill 329
- Anderson 327
- Carter 308
- H. Rodriguez 283
- Simmons 281
- Brown 261
- Cunningham 250 (This is an anomaly. Nebraska only voted for 10 guys, and had he voted a full list, I'm almost certain Cunningham would have overtaken Brown. The other thing here is that Cunningham's average score is lower than 11 of the 12 votes he received, because fade2night panned him so badly. The reader can draw his/her own conclusions as to who is rightly 10th and 11th here.)
- Bailey 219
- J. Mitchell 176
- Blevins 157
- Doolittle 145
- Smith 138
- Horton 134
- Leon 126
- Herrera 116
- Sweeney 109
- Meyer 99
- Powell 93
- Italiano 91
- Demel 83
- Mazzaro 78
- Desme 71
- Carignan 60
- Petit 60
- Banwart 53
- Sulentic 47
Others receiving votes:
Lansford 46 Recker 26, Robnett 19, Melillo 17, F. Hernandez 14, Ray 14, Pennington 11, M. Mitchell 8, Ziegler 8, Godfrey 3, Pruitt 1
Cunningham
I've never felt so bad for not being high on a prospect. What's with the guilt trip?
Although, looking back at it now he might have been a bit low...
by Threepwood XX on Jan 9, 2008 2:33 PM PST up reply actions
I voted Brown over Cunningham myself
so it's not a guilt trip... I just felt I'd be remiss not to observe that the manner in which Brown finished "ahead" of Cunningham was somewhat funky.
Honestly, the real oddity was from using a list with only 10 guys on it... but I wanted to use the experts' lists, and they didn't go to 30 players, either. So I felt it would be odd to dismiss a list with 10 guys but keep one with 18.
Brown
Well I don't think Cunningham should be above Brown ether, but I was thinking low teens; maybe number 17 or 18.
Also, what about Scout.com's list?
by Threepwood XX on Jan 9, 2008 4:50 PM PST up reply actions
We should call these...
WikiRankings
My list
A little late but here is how I have them for now:
- Daric Barton
- Gio Gonzalez
- Carlos Gonzalez
- Fautino De Los Santos
- Brett Anderson
- Trevor Cahill
- Chris Carter
- James Simmons
- Aaron Cunningham
- Henry Alberto Rodriguez
- Andrew Bailey
- Javier Herrera
- Corey Brown
- Jerry Blevins
- Alex Arnold Leon
- Sean Doolittle
- Jermaine Mitchell
- Ryan Sweeney
- Dan Meyer
- Greg Smith
- Grant Desme
- Sam Demel
- Andrew Carignan
- Anthony Recker
- Landon Powell
- Jason Ray
- Vince Mazzaro
- Graham Godfrey
- Gregorio Petit
- Craig Italiano
Aaron Cunningham
Guys, do me a favor
Look up the #'s Aaron Cunningham has posted relative to his age. Done? Now look up the numbers of some top prospects like Dexter Fowler, Jordan Schafer, Gorky's Hernandez, Tyler Colvin, Andrew McCutchen and even our own Carlos Gonzalez. These are all top 100 prospects than Cunningham has been better than, most of which far better than.
Now I know there is more to it then just numbers. But he's truly one of the games more underrated prospects.
Position.
Jordan Schafer, Gorky's Hernandez, McCutchen are all CFs.
Ummmm
Isn't Cunningham in the exact same spot on your list as he is in mine?
I may be downgrading him slightly because I have not really followed him as much as prospects who have been in the A's system but I am pretty comfortable with him in the bottom of my top 10 for right now.
re
My post wasnt in direct response to you. Your post just happened to fall at the bottom
That's when you want to ...
hit "Post A Comment" as opposed to "Reply to This" ...
I do ... far too regularly ...
I even checked my trash bin in case an e-mail got mixed in with spam ...
dlavelle (at) alum (dot) pomona (dot) edu
uh-huh
So you're saying you didn't get an e-mail from me the other day?
I did a search ...
the last thing I have from you was in September ...
Well someone really likes me...
assuming they like to read about baseball.
I'll try once more
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