I think the most likely scenario is staying in Oakland.  But it could be a little rough on the fan base if he waits quite a while before making, and announcing, that decision.  And he will want to wait, to see if the real estate market turns around.

Ever hear of business cycles?

Using your logic, the Bay Area never pulled out of the tech bust.

My car is running low on gas.  I better get rid of it while I still can.

I have seen a great graph on housing prices over the last 30 years at ,MacroMarkets.  I'll have to look around for it, because all I see with a quick look is a 10 year history.  But from memory of the chart, the last housing recession started in 1989, bottomed in 1993, and didn't recover until 1997 or later.  January 2007 was the first month where housing prices were lower than the same month of the prior year.  So if that pattern were to repeat, and of course it may not, housing prices will not bottom until 2011, and not recover until 2015.

If that scenario plays out, Lew (sorry for the Lou) may be alright.  Though he may be trying to sell condo's at or near the bottom in 2011.  He's a very bright guy so I'm sure he's looking at the same data I am.  And if he goes ahead, he'll have a plan to make money in this scenario.  But I'm just not sure he'll go ahead.

But I actually think this housing recession is going to be far worse than the 1989-1997 recession. I personally would not invest in the Fremont stadium.  I think housing prices could drop back to 2000 levels, which would be a 50% drop from the peak.

So I'm not sure Lew will roll the dice on this one.

Apparently, some of you beat me to the punch!

important.  If attendance falls to the point that cash flow is negative, that would be very damaging for Lew and his partners.  They have a financial forecast, and if dates start to slip due to Fremont delays or other construction issues, then I think attendance will fall off from the current fan base.  Negative cash flow, and running under plan in the beginning of a project, has a very negative impact on investors looking at plowing a ton of money into a 4 or 5 year construction project.

A second negative impact may have already occurred.  My guess would be that Lew is looking at higher long term interest rates for his project, because it will be viewed as somewhat risky.  Mortgage rates for prime borrowers have actually fallen a bit, I believe, over the past 12 months.  But I think this would be viewed as a riskier investment, and he would be facing higher risk premiums.  And I don't know when Lew will be able to lock in on his rates--maybe not for a year or more, and they are likely to turn up in that time period.  (Long term rates that is--Fed Funds rates and short term rates are of course headed down right now.)

I think a lot of things have gone the wrong way from 12-24 months ago when Lew was putting together his financial model.

are not the A's and an unbuilt stadium but rather their other holdings.

The effects of this economy may have far reaching consequences on those. Devalued properties be they homes or Hiltons and nervous bankers make for the wrong kind of busy.

In finance games it comes down to time is your "enemy" or "friend".

Wolff is a minor player in this matter like Beane. Both are heavily reliant on a profit for their big payday. The well liked Beane, retained for PR purposes as much as his business acumen. Now finds himself in the position of hatchet man, destroying the roster he built.

The (90%?) owners are the Fishers; creators/owners of entities such as "The Gap", many tennant dependent Shopping Malls with and without "Gap Stores", Mutual Funds, Stock Holdings, Property management Corps, and real property.

Their activities are heavily concentrated in harder hit CA.

...in short, the Fishers could very well be reeling from commitments, assets shortages, dwindling resources and confidence amongst their peers. All of which is before even touching upon the A's/Cisco project.

The extent of the market downturn could have caught the Fishers off guard or they may have anticipated it all months or even years ago. IMHO most of the business world and CA in particular fits the "surprised" category.

more later...

like you are.  Right now I'm still recovering from the Haren and Swisher trades.  I've always bought into the "in Bill we trust" way of looking at things.  He's been right far more than wrong.  I'm very excited about Barton and Buck.  

But I just wasn't as negative on the team as it was--and I may have been wrong on that.  But the trades have been a bummer for me.  But I'll recover and be there opening day--oh wait, they'll be in Japan.

Much of this discussion hinges on where the economy will be in 3-7 years.  If the Bay area goes back to a booming real estate market, supported by a strong economy, Lew's project may have bumps in the road, but I would think it would overall be successful.  And that would be a good thing for the A's.

On the other hand, I'm not as sanguine about the economy, and particularly the real estate market.  I think home prices have to adjust eventually to a point where most people can afford them--though that has not been the case for the past 10+ years in this area.  The San Francisco area average home price in October was 6.2% below October of last year, and 2.1% below September of 2008--so the price decrease is accelerating.  My guess is the newer construction areas such as San Ramon and condo's are not doing as well as the average, while Palo Alto and Menlo Park are holding up better.  And Lew is building new condo's.  So if the market is soft in 3-7 years, I think he'll be in trouble.  But the world goes on even in soft real estate markets.  The early '90's in this area were fine for most--even though real estate was depressing.

But my point in writing the diary was simply to say I think Lew and his investors have got to be reevaluating all of this, and I think it's likely they will end up backing away from it before they have to put down money in the $100 million area.  And that would put the A's back where they have been--perhaps staying in the Coliseum.  But clearly my forecast of real estate could be way off, as others have said on this thread.

I don't think you'll hear this for at least a year.  But I just don't think the numbers that they put together 1+ years ago are realistic now. But they will be tempted to let the financial market play out a little--hoping the picture will turn rosier.  I just don't think it will, and when significant cash commitments have to be made, they will back off.  Obviously this is just my opinion, and not shared by many on this thread.

Wolff completed the bulk of the land acquisitions two months ago. He has 225 acres under control. There's no further need for public intervention except for rezoning approval. Alameda County's involvement has been minimal to this point. It's mostly Fremont's deal for now.

Regardless, discussion of a government entity owning a team in whole or in part is moot. I think I can safely say that it will never happen in our lifetimes - not if the current group of team owners can help it.