Super Bowl: Wanna Bet?
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jan 31, 2008 2:20 PM PST
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PrintDisclaimer: Nothing in the phrase "Wanna Bet?" should be construed as an invitation to bet. No suggestion or offer herein contained is meant to promote or facilitate any wager, or to in any way encourage the participation in games of chance or skill for monetary or other fungible reward. Even Josh Heytvelt fungi-bles. The author of this post does not suggest or endorse gambling, ambling, rambling, or Grambling, though Doug Williams does rock. AthleticsNation.com shall be held harmless for any incorrect inference drawn by anyone, ever, about anything. "Point spreads," "Money Lines," "Odds" and other such terms herein contained are common usage expressions for methods of equitability for self-selected participants and do not connote or imply any form of gambling activity, legal or otherwise. Contest is meant for fun only: no actual fun may be inferred. Spend your money on unlicensed BART Bridge merchandise instead. The phrase "spend your money on unlicensed BART Bridge merchandise" is not meant as an imperative or invitation to trademark fraud. "Fun" is an ephemeral concept subject to re-interpretation at the author’s sole discretion.
(Caveats courtesy of Upgrade and Fleece LLC, putting the "tics" in athleticsnation since 2005)
[Seriously, though, just for fun, no actual betting. NOBETTINGNOBETTING NOBETTINGNOBETTINGNOBETTINGNOBETTINGNOBETTINGNOBETTING]
So, I hear there’s this football game Sunday. In years past a few ANers have done some Super Bowl commercial and football game-threading (albeit with less all-dying and game-overing), and even posited forecasts, often related to certain common benchmarks like "odds" and "point spreads." My old pal Nick has often proclaimed that the NFL is popular because it offers a veneer of acceptability for anti-social behavior, public drunkenness, and gambling. Bearing in mind that he and I were once housemates, I daresay that I may in fact be an object lesson for his thesis. I also am keenly aware that maybe no one will care. Oh well.
In any case, I thought I’d take the next step and offer
The First Annual AN Super Bowl Picks Contest
Below is a list of a selected few of the hundreds of conventional and exotic wagers really available on the Super Bowl. You pick only those you like...if you don’t want to bet on the Giants fumbling or the Gatorade shower, that’s fine. Each player gets 1,000 imaginary dollars to bet...but since they’re not dollars, I’m calling them 1,000 Magic Beanes. Pick from the menu of bets listed below, with these rules:
- Players must bet their entire 1,000 Magic Beane bankroll
- Players can spread their bets around however they wish, but must make at least three separate wagers. That way we get a better diversity of picks.
- There’s a 50 Magic Beane minimum for any wager, and all bets must be in even multiples of 50 Beanes, to simplify the math I’ll need to do.
- One could theoretically, then, make as many as 20 bets of 50 Magic Beanes each, or make two 50 Beane bets and one 900 Beane bet, or any assortment in between.
- Picks must be posted as a comment in this thread before coin flip and Anthem on Sunday. So you do have time to wait for the morning police blotter.
- I’ll try to tally and post results as soon after the game as I can, depending on level of interest and BAC.
Lastly, before we get to the wagering menu, I want to make sure that everyone can play, from the most grizzled free-drink guzzling nicotine-finger-stained sharp to the most pure, innocent naif. So, here’s a quick primer on odds and terms.
A Point Spread lets you add or subtract a number of points to the score of the team you pick. So if you bet Giants +12, you add 12 points to the NYG final score, and if that’s higher than the actual NE final total, you win. Bet the Patriots –12, you subtract 12 points from the NE final score, and if that’s higher than the actual NYG final total, you win. Simple. Of course, only one of the many wagers below is a straight point spread bet.
A Moneyline, usually expressed in 3 digits, like -110 or +220, is a multiplier showing how much you can win relative to $100 Magic Beanes. Positive numbers mean a bigger risk and bigger potential payout, greater than 100% of your bet. Negative numbers mean less risk and less potential reward, less than 100% of your bet. An especially big positive number means your bet is a real longshot, and if you win you get a big payout. An especially big negative number means your bet is a heavy favorite, and if you win you get a fractionally small payout.
Some examples:
- Over 54 total points will be scored: at –110 you get 100/110ths, or 90.9%. A 100 Beane bet would return you that 100 plus a 90.9 Beane profit. (-110 is a common Moneyline and the source of the sharp’s adage: "That 11:10 is stronger than death.")
- Yes, the team that scores first will win the game: at –240 you get 100/240ths, or 41.7%. A 100 Beane bet would return you that 100 plus a 41.7 Beane profit.
- NYG will win outright, no point spread: at +325 you’d get 325/100ths, or 325%. A 100 Beane bet would return you that 100 plus a 325 Beane profit.
- The game will go to overtime: at +700 you’d get 700/100ths, or 700%. A 100 Beane bet would return you that 100 plus a 700 Beane profit.
- The game won’t go to overtime: at –1400 you’d get 100/1400ths, or 7.1%. Such "sure thing" bets are known in the trade as bridge jumper specials.
Hopefully you get the point. If all you take out of the Moneyline discussion is "+ means bigger risk and bigger payout, - means less risk and less payout" then you’re perfectly well equipped to play our game.
A few wagers are Fractional Odds, or simply "Odds," which are ratios. Wanna bet NYG wins by exactly between 25-30 points? Pays 50-to-1 (shown 50/1). That the third quarter will be the scoringest quarter of the game? Pays 53-to-20 (53/20). That the MVP will thank God before thanking anyone else? 5-to-2 (5/2).
A few last terms. Over/Under means betting the result will be more or less than a certain fixed mid-point, like over or under 54 total points scored, or over or under 1 minute, 42 seconds National Anthem length. Action means the wager is in effect; no action means the bet’s off and you get your money back, no win or loss. Joe Buck means it’s time to hit mute until the commercials come back on.
Don’t let any of this mumbo jumbo scare you. Spent your 1000 Magic Beanes...they’re free! Make your picks, be they winners or points or fumbles or jersey numbers or Gatorade showers. Quite literally, you have nothing to lose. But your chains! So please choose your faves from the following options:
WINNING ISN’T EVERYTHING, IT’S THE ONLY THING
Win/Loss: Point Spread
Both bets pay at –110
New York Giants +12
New England Patriots -12Win/Loss: Money Line (no points)
New York Giants +325
New England Patriots -450Over/Under 54 points
Both bets pay at –110
Over 54 points
Under 54 pointsExact Margin of Victory
New York Giants win by 1-6 Points 5/1
New York Giants win by 7-12 Points 9/1
New York Giants win by 13-18 Points 18/1
New York Giants win by 19-24 Points 30/1
New York Giants win by 25-30 Points 50/1
New York Giants win by 31-36 Points 100/1
New York Giants win by 37 or More Points 150/1
New England Patriots win by 1-6 Points 5/1
New England Patriots win by 7-12 Points 5/2
New England Patriots win by 13-18 Points 3/1
New England Patriots win by 19-24 Points 4/1
New England Patriots win by 25-30 Points 7/1
New England Patriots win by 31-36 Points 12/1
New England Patriots win by 37 or More Points 10/1
FIRST DIBS
How long will it take Jordin Sparks to sing the National anthem?
(The Clock will start when Jordin Sparks sings the first note; Wagers have action on Star Spangled only.)
Over/Under 1 min, 42 sec:
Over 1m42s -115
Under 1m42s -115Coin Toss
Heads -105
Tails -105Team to score first in the game
New York Giants +150
New England Patriots -180Will the team that scores first win the game?
Yes -240
No +190The first score of the game will be?
Touchdown -190
Field Goal or Safety +155First scoring play of the game will be?
New York Giants - TD Pass 4/1
New York Giants - TD Run 6/1
New York Giants - Field Goal 9/2
New York Giants – Safety 70/1
Any Other New York Giants TD 20/1
New England Patriots - TD Pass 1/1
New England Patriots - TD Run 2/1
New England Patriots - Field Goal 7/2
New England Patriots – Safety 40/1
Any Other New England Patriots TD 15/1How many yards will the first TD of the game be?
No TD scored in the game 150/1
0-7 Yards 6/5
8-15 Yards 3/2
16-25 Yards 3/1
26-39 Yards 4/1
40-59 Yards 6/1
60-79 Yards 12/1
80-95 Yards 15/1
96 or More Yards 9/1Player to throw first TD pass:
Eli Manning (NYG) +220
Tom Brady (NE) -260Jersey number of player to score first touchdown in Super Bowl XLII
Over # 43.5 -110
Under # 43.5 -110Which will happen first:
(Bet continues until Giants punt or score. Must be official punt.)
Giants score +140
Giants punt -160Which will happen first:
(Bet continues until Patriots punt or score. Must be official punt.)
Patriots score -170
Patriots punt +150
IF YOU’RE SCORING AT HOME, or even if you’re alone.
Largest lead of the game by either team:
Over 18 -110
Under 18 -110Will the Giants ever have the lead?
Yes -170
No +150Will the game ever be tied after the first score?
(Wager is on if there will be a tie score after either team scores first in game. Overtime counts towards wager.)
Yes (Tied after the 1st score) +130
No (Tied after the 1st score) -160Will there be a lead change in the Second Half?
(Overtime doesn't count towards wager.)
Yes (Lead change 2nd Half) +200
No (Lead change 2nd Half) -260Will the game go into overtime?
Yes (Overtime) +700
No (Overtime) -1400Highest Scoring Quarter
(If two or more quarters tie for the highest points, wagers are settled as a Push.)
1st Quarter 3/1
2nd Quarter 33/20
3rd Quarter 53/20
4th Quarter 11/5Will at least one Quarter be scoreless?
(No score by either team, Overtime doesn't count towards wager.)
Yes +250
No -400Total touchdowns scored in the game
(Both Teams combined)
Over/Under 6 TD's:
Over 6 TDs -135
Under 6 TDs +105Team to have the Longest Touchdown scored in game
(Offensive, Defensive or Special Teams.)
New York Giants (Longest TD) +155
New England Patriots (Longest TD) -190Longest Touchdown in the game
(Offensive, Defensive and Special Teams touchdowns count. Touchdown must be scored for wagers to have action.)
Longest TD Over/Under 47.5 yards:
Over 47.5 yards -115
Under 47.5 yards -115Shortest TD of game
(fumble recovery in end zone-- under is the winner)
Over 1.5 +120
Under 1.5 -140Will a special teams or defensive TD be scored?
Yes +150
No -180Will there be a safety in the game?
Yes (Safety) +600
No (Safety) -1000Will there be a successful 2 point conversion?
Yes +450
No -550Total number of different players to have a passing attempt
(2 point conversions do not count)
Over 2.5 +210
Under 2.5 -250
YOU DA MANNING!
What will happen first for Eli Manning?
(Eli Manning must play for action.)
Throw a TD Pass -145
Throw an Interception +115Will Eli Manning throw an interception?
(Eli Manning must play for action.)
Yes -220
No +180How Many Times will Joe Buck mention Peyton Manning's name during the Broadcast?
(Halftime included. Joe Buck must mention full name in order to count.)
Over/Under 5.5 mentions:
Over 5.5 -125
Under 5.5 -115How many times will Archie Manning be shown on the TV Broadcast?
Over/Under 4.5 times shown:
Over 4.5 -150
Under 4.5 +110
I LOVE A MAN IN A UNIFORM
What will happen first for Tom Brady?
(Tom Brady must play for action.)
Throw a TD Pass -350
Throw an Interception +275Will Tom Brady throw an interception?
(Tom Brady must play for action.)
Yes +115
No -145If the Patriots win, will Bob Kraft mention the 72 Dolphins during the Trophy Presentation?
(New England must win for action.)
Yes -135
No -105If the Patriots win, will Don Shula be on the field to shake Belichick's hand after the game?
(New England must win for action.)
Yes +250
No -400
FAILURE IS SO AN OPTION
Team to Punt first in the game
New York Giants (1st to Punt) -170
New England Patriots (1st to Punt) +140Total Punts made in game by both teams
Over/Under 7.5 Punts:
Over 7.5 Punts -130
Under 7.5 Punts EVENTeam to commit the Most Turnovers in the game
New York Giants (Most Turnovers) -300
New England Patriots (Most Turnovers) +240Team to commit the first Turnover in the game
New York Giants (First Turnover) -170
New England Patriots (First Turnover) +140The First Turnover of the game will be?
(Fumbles must be recovered by the opposing team, not same team.)
Fumble 5/4
Interception 20/33
No Turnovers in the game 7/1Total number of Pass Interceptions by both teams
Over/Under 2.5 interceptions:
Over 2.5 interceptions +140
Under 2.5 interceptions -180Total lost fumbles made by both teams in the game
0 Fumbles 2/1
1 Fumble 3/2
2 Fumbles 2/1
3 Fumbles 7/2
4 Fumbles 11/2
5 or More Fumbles 5/1
IT’S ALL OVER BUT THE RIOTING
Color of liquid winning Head Coach is doused in:
Transparent +400
Green +500
Yellow +300
Orange +125
Red +300
Blue +1000
Purple +1600Who will the MVP of the Game thank first?
(First of listed options to occur pays. If Two or More MVP's wagers are no action.)
Teammates 2/1
God 5/2
Family 2/1
Coach 5/1
Doesn't thank anyone 6/1
So c’mon, take a sticky shower of an undetermined hue, thank your favorite loved one/colleague/supernatural being, and make some picks already!
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Can I have $10?
50 Magic Beanes on the Giants to win straight up
(no points)
50 Magic Beanes that, yes, the game goes into overtime.
900 Magic Beanes that, yes, there will be a successful two-point conversion.
If you hit those longshots
you'll have to get yourself a grain silo to hold all those Magic Beanes.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jan 31, 2008 2:48 PM PST up reply actions
Ice Cream
is playing to win and has identified the (IMO) best high-variance bet on the board. Damn him.
How to counter...
You could've gone with all locks
on the theory that players who spread their Beanes around on high risks will tend to finish with an on-balance loss (cf, all the casinos they build), and therefore a combo of No OT, No safety, and No 2-PTs would most likely give you a safe return of like 15%.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jan 31, 2008 3:24 PM PST up reply actions
Sure
One could do that and have an expected (average) return of something like -10%, but a very good shot at +15% or so. That's a fine idea if you're playing with real money and your goal is capital preservation. But it's unlikely to come in first unless the field of players is very small.
Probably the best strategy is to wait until the last minute, see how many people are playing and what bets they've made, and then pick your strategy based on that. But I'm not quite that much of a weenie.
Fun Idea
100 on NE winning by 7-12 points.
200 on blue gatorade.
700 on most points scored in the 4th quarter.
since there's nothing at stake ...
200 Beanes on each of the following:
- first score 60-79 yards
- Giants never have the lead
- one quarter will be entirely scoreless
- there will be a special teams/defensive TD scored
- there will be a safety scored
last-minute redactions
Strike the safety entirely, change amount to 100 on each of the other four, and put 600 on Patriots to win by 31-36 pts.
The Commish has a soft spot for primates
and grants you this special dispensation. But for the rest of you invertebrates, no such luck!
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Feb 3, 2008 11:19 AM PST up reply actions
OK
900 Beanes that there will be a successful two-point conversion.
50 Beanes that New England commits the most turnovers.
50 Beanes that Eli throws the first TD pass.
The Upgrade shotgun approach
Basically assuming a close, low scoring game.
NYG +12 points: 200 Beanes
Under 54 pts scored: 500 Beanes
Largest lead less than 18 points: 100 Beanes
Highest scoring quarter—3rd: 50 Beanes
Yes, there will be a 2-pt conversion: 50 Beanes
Over 2.5 different players attempt pass: 50 Beanes
The MVP thanks God first: 50 Beanes
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jan 31, 2008 3:28 PM PST reply actions
My bets
NYG +12: 300 Beanes
Over 54 points: 700 Beanes
Need a minimum of 3 bets
you'll need to add one for at least 50 Beanes, and change one of the other bets to stay at a 1,000 Beane total.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jan 31, 2008 4:32 PM PST up reply actions
Sorry, I missed that
revised:
NYG +12: 200 Beanes
Over 54 points: 500 Beanes
National Anthem over 1m42s: 100 Beanes
MVP doesn't thank anyone: 100 Beanes
The Heels are looking good, btw. Up 15 at the half against BC.
this time you didn't spend all your beans
<spills the beans>
by rubin sierra on Feb 1, 2008 12:02 AM PST up reply actions
Rubin's right
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Feb 1, 2008 7:16 AM PST up reply actions
In case you don't return to this in time
I'm going to enter you picks with the NYG +12 bet at 300 Beanes, as you'd originally posted it, and the other 3 wagers as you've written them above.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Feb 2, 2008 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
That works, I'm an idiot.
My quickies:
Giants win by 13-18 points = 250 Magic Beanes
Patriots punt before they score = 300 MBs
Brady will throw an interception = 150 MBs
4th quarter will be highest scoring = 150 MBs
Red Gatorade = 150 MBs
should I?
I have a "Don't Come Back, Kotsay" Poetic Interlude that I figured was both too short and too mean-spirited to post.
Twice as far with a candy bar!
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jan 31, 2008 5:01 PM PST up reply actions
Before coin flip and Nat'l Anthem Sunday.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jan 31, 2008 4:32 PM PST up reply actions
In it to win it, baby
New York Giants win by 1-6 Points at 5/1- 50
New York Giants to win no spread at +325- 800
Blue liquid at +1000 - 150
Sure, not the most diversified bets but they're separate so hey, why not? Plus it gives me more reason to root against the Pats. Also, blue is in both teams colors, why not blue Gatorade? Great diary, I've always wondered what some of these terms meant.
Bring it.
- 200 Beanes on first TD being 8-15 yards
- 300 Beanes on Brady throwing an interception
- 100 Beanes on a special teams/defensive TD scored
- 100 Beanes on being doused by transparent water
- 300 Beanes on most points scored in 1st quarter
1000 Beanes on NY winning by 37+
Mark it down.
That's some confidence right there
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Feb 1, 2008 7:18 AM PST up reply actions
I use my sense of smell to sniff out the good...
bets, so these are my nose picks:
Win/Loss: 50 Beanes. I'll take the Giants +12. (-110)
Length of National Anthem: 50 Beans. Under 1 min 42 secs. (-115)
Jersey # of first player to score TD: 50 Beanes. Under 43.5 (-110)
Largest Lead of the game: 500 Beanes. Under 18. (-110)
Will the game ever be tied again after first score?: 50 Beanes. Yes. (+130)
Total TD's: 50 Beanes. Under 6. (+105)
Team to have the longest TD: 50 Beanes. Giants. (+155)
How many times will Joe Buck mention Peyton Manning's full name? 50 Beanes. Under 5.5 (-115)
First to punt? 50 Beanes. Patriots. (+140)
Who will MVP thak first? 100 Beanes. God. (5/2)
I don't think this will be a good game
300 Beanes on this one:
Win/Loss: Point Spread (bets pay at –110)
New England Patriots -12
100 Beanes on each of the following seven:
Exact Margin of Victory
New England Patriots win by 19-24 Points 4/1
First scoring play of the game will be?
New England Patriots - TD Pass 1/1
How many yards will the first TD of the game be?
16-25 Yards 3/1
Will the Giants ever have the lead?
No +150
What will happen first for Eli Manning?
Throw an Interception +115
The First Turnover of the game will be?
Interception 20/33
Who will the MVP of the Game thank first?
God 5/2
quantity over quality
50 Beanes each!
- coin toss: tails
- first score:: field goal
- first score of game: Pats field goal
- Giants, punt or score first: punt
- Jersey #: over 43.5
- tied after first score?: yes
- lead change in 2nd half: yes
- defensive or special teams score: no
- Joe Buck mentions Peyton: over 5.5
- Archie Manning appearances: under 4.5
- Brady pick?: yes
- Gatorade: yellow
- MVP thanks: teammates
- Total punts: over 7.5
- Manning pick: yes
- Lost Fumbles: 1
- 1st turnover: Patriots
- Longest TD: under 47.5
- Longest TD: giants
- national anthem: under whatever the time given was
It's not easy being Green
or Orange. So far the Gatorade bath is one of the most popular bets on the board, with Beanes down on Transparent, Yellow, Red, Blue, and Purple, but no love yet for Green or Orange.
Plenty of time left to get your picks in.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Feb 2, 2008 11:47 AM PST reply actions
Since we're betting Beanes ...
... I know to ignore what my heart tells me (go Giants!) and to bet with my head.
• Over 54 points scored ... 100 Beanes
• Jersey # of first player to score a TD is OVER 43.5 ... 100 Beanes
• Color of liquid dumped during celebration is GREEN ... 100 Beanes
• Pats win by 19-24-point margin ... 700 Beanes
This Broncos fan has seen this before
I've heard a lot of "The Giants are no slouches, they could give the Pats a game" comments just like I heard that Denver could beat the 49ers, Giants, Redskins and Cowboys. My gut instinct is "No they can't."
Here are my Beane Bets:
200 Bs - Pats win by 19-24
200 Bs - Pats win by 25-30
200 Bs - Over 2.5 interceptions
200 Bs - Giants have longest TD
100 Bs - Largest lead over 18
100 Bs - Giants never lead
I know that my first two can't both win, but the odds are too good to pass up. I don't want them to, but I think the Patriots blow it open.
I bet that I won't watch the game
Bet on it.
by Athletics fan and runner on Feb 2, 2008 6:22 PM PST reply actions
No Halftime Show wagers?
Normally I predict football based on uniform colors but I don't see those options here :)
I'll go with 200 Beanes each:
• Patriots win by 1-6 pts
• Giants score first
• Yes, there's a lead change in the 2nd half
• Yes, there's a safety
• There will be over 2.5 interceptions (what's a .5 interception? Is that when it's recovered somehow by the original team?)
Total guesses, as I have watched 10 minutes of football all season :)
All in...
100 Beanes on the Giants to win.
450 Beanes the game going into overtime.
450 Beanes on yes, there is a safety in the game.
?
Don't get the reference.
Kicking myself for not going with the original 900 Beanes on NY to win. Although there was a shot at a safety and it looked twice like OT was a possibility, and I loved the (theoretical) payoff.
I did bet 20 Washingtons that NY would win, so I got that going for me...which is nice.
reference
72 is the worst starting hand in texas hold'em...so basically I was saying that you were really gambling with your longshot bets there. But hey, OT did look like a real possibility, at which time you would've flopped three sevens or something (to extend the metaphor).
Yeah, my actual betting on this game was limited to MBs here and half the cost of a square in a $100 numbers pool at a bar (you know, the squares) in which I drew 5 and 3 (I was looking for a record number of field goals, I guess...or unnecessary two-point conversions), so you win with your 20 washingtons, heh
my bets
500 Beanes: New England Patriots win by 1-6 Points 5/1
500 Beanes: New England Patriots win by 19-24 Points 4/1
i didn't put too much thought into it, basically they will win on a FG like they always do, or get pissed off because the spy camera controversy is back in the news.
i'd put beanes on the 2 point conversion if andeux and ice cream didn't have that covered.
if i don't win, hopefully this at least jinxes the f'ing pats...
oops, minimum of 3
450 Beanes: New England Patriots win by 1-6 Points 5/1
500 Beanes: New England Patriots win by 19-24 Points 4/1
50 Beanes: Color of liquid winning Head Coach is doused in: Purple +1600
let's see
500 on the giants +12, i think the pats will win but by 10 points or less.
100 National anthem under 1m42s
100 over 54
100 New England Patriots win by 7-12 Points
100 New York Giants – Safety
100 for purple gatorade
I think I've figured this out....
50 beanies:
First scoring play of the game will be?
Any Other New England Patriots TD 15/1
250 beanies:
If the Patriots win, will Bob Kraft mention the 72 Dolphins during the Trophy Presentation?
(New England must win for action.)
No -105
500 beanies:
How Many Times will Joe Buck mention Peyton Manning's name during the Broadcast?
(Halftime included. Joe Buck must mention full name in order to count.)
Over 5.5 -125
200 beanies:
The First Turnover of the game will be?
(Fumbles must be recovered by the opposing team, not same team.)
Interception 20/33
Go Patriots!
/chokes self
100 Beanes each:
- Pats win by 7-12 points
- First score: FG or safety
- Interception first for Eli
- 3rd quarter is the highest-scoring
- Brady will throw an interception
- Longest TD of game - over 47.5
- 1 fumble in the game
- MVP will thank teammates
195:
- Gatorade is yellow
5:
- Matt Cassel actually takes a snap (Yeah, I made that one up, so what?)
Bets in multiples of 50 Beanes, JL... :)
(with 50-Beane minimum)
I gave him the extra 5 Beanes
on thanking teammates.
Though if he had wanted to he coulda put Beanes down (as I did) on over 2.5 players attempting a pass. Any backup, trick play, or botched field goal which becomes a pass. Which happened in SB VII, by kicker Garo Yepremian, as the Dolphins capped off their perfect 1972 season (cue Twilight Zone music).
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Feb 3, 2008 1:56 PM PST up reply actions
Damn
So...
100 Beanes each:
* Pats win by 7-12 points
* First score: FG or safety
* Interception first for Eli
* 3rd quarter is the highest-scoring
* Brady will throw an interception
* Longest TD of game - over 47.5
* 1 fumble in the game
* MVP will thank teammates
150:
* Gatorade is yellow
50:
* Matt Cassel actually takes a snap (Yeah, I made that one up, so what?)
Does that work? I honestly admit that I didn't read through everything.
And about the Patriots... I don't like the Giants or Eli Manning and I went to high school with the Pats' third-string QB. That's really about it. I'm a Cowboys fan, so I really don't want to see the Giants win it.
he has the easiest job in the world
Being Brady's backup...doesn't need a trip to Disneyworld on top of that (do they even do that anymore?)
Picks to be posted shortly...
But first I must point out that I'm sure the Patriots would object to the oddsmakers listing God and Belichick separately.
well, since no one ever mistook Coughlin for...
a deity...well, maybe a vengeful Greek or Hindu one...I guess that "thank the coach first" option should only have action if the G-men were to win.
by Cutthemullet on Feb 3, 2008 12:11 PM PST up reply actions
ok...
Here are the bets from a good poker player but a bad bankroll manager/overall gambler:
I think the best, if obscure, bet here is that Peyton's name will be mentioned less than 5.5 times. I wonder if you could get a push on that..."Peyton Mann--whoops, sorry, worldwide audience, I mean Eli...."
First I have to throw a token (no pun intended...not that it's much of a pun, anyway) 50 MBs (I like to think they're Milton Bradleys as much as they are Magic Beanes) at the money line for the coin toss--anyone who played high school sports knows that tails never fails. 50 on tails.
Giants +12...Plaxico did go all Namath on us and predict a 23-17 victory, after all. I don't think they'll win, but the Pats haven't been blowing teams out lately, and the Giants have been excellent outside the Meadowlands this season. 150 MBs.
First person/concept for the MVP to thank: well, since I think the MVP will be a Patriot, I'm going with 100 MBs on coach. See above post for why I think this one should be taken off the board, or modified.
Giants have a pass rush if not much of a secondary...Brady will make a mistake or two. 100 MBs on a Brady INT.
Mercury Morris would probably mobilize the entire roster, dead and alive, of the '72 Dolphins to lead an attack on Kraft if he were to refer, even in complimentary fashion, to the 17-0 squad after the game, so I'm putting 100 MBs on no mention.
If Peyton and Archie are on the board, shouldn't Giselle be there, too? I think she might lead the pack in references outside the 106 guys actually suiting up (well, plus the coaches). 0 MBs because I can't....
50 on no safety. Give me the freebie.
I want to do a Manning family parlay, but since that's not an option, 100 on the over for Archie and 150 on the under for Peyton.
800 spent, 200 left...
100 on, essentially, this game never being out of hand. So, no lead over 18.
I hate that the national anthem is performed at sporting events. No bet there.
50 that the Pats will punt before they score. Defensive adrenaline usually prevails in the first few series, Pats' record-setting offense notwithstanding.
I'd bet the last 50 on the first turnover being an INT, but...that's not friendly math.
Ok...I don't foresee much offensive trickery. Well, at least not the extent of Moss...Stallworth...touchdown. 50 on under 2.5 guys throwing a pass.
100 extra MBs in a sidebet that I beat Ice Cream, haha.
I didn't include it because I didn't want
to have to pay that much attention during halftime, but BetUS.com does have a Tom Petty halftime prop available:
Tom Petty...
smokes a joint during half time show +2500
has a wardrobe malfunction +10000
streaks field during play +50000
will smash a guitar onstage +5000
will curse during performance +8000
BTW, regarding the Peyton mentions, bet details say that the name has to be said completely by Joe Buck, so if he gets as far as "Peyton Mann..." and stops, it doesn't count as a mention.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Feb 3, 2008 1:01 PM PST up reply actions
heh
Figured there'd be a wardrobe malfunction bet available somewhere. I'd throw the min bet at those...+8000 for swearing? Is this affected by the five-second delay, or will...this be judged...live from Glendale? Because if live, that's potentially a huge moneymaker.
I don't know much about gambling
How do they deal with wagers that are directly controlable by someone? Meaning do they follow up to see if someone close to Tom Petty bet tons that he would curse during the show and then he does? Or if Jordin Sparks really drags out the National Anthem?
Bets like these exotic props
usually have very low maximum wage caps, like $500-1000, and really aren't actually booked at more than a few dozen offshore casinos, so there's no practical way Petty or Sparks could get enough money down to make it worthwhile.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Feb 3, 2008 8:23 PM PST up reply actions
A good place to revisit...
http://www.athleticsnation.com/story/2007/3/11/14940/3515
In reality, though, I didn't bet on anything before the season. But I should've taken my own advice. I went 4-1 on the season win total over-unders (winning on ATL, LAD, CIN, and AZ), with the only bet that failed me there being under 88.5 for Philly...which was kind of improbable late in the season.
I also really liked Boston at 9-5 to win the East. OaktownPower one-upped me there by saying he's take Boston +900 to win at all...hope he followed through on that.
Seemed to be a general consensus that AZ +78.5 was a great bet...and it was.
I was also right to recommend betting against the Dodgers in any way possible...I kind of messed up on the particulars, though.
Overall, had I followed my own advice, there would've been pretty good returns.
+900 for Boston to win at all, lol
Oddsmakers thought it was almost a lock that they'd go 0-162.
See...not previewing posts can lead to fun errors like that...who likes a mistake-free post.
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