Of course I don't think it will take Mulvey 4 years to become a major league pitcher. I do think it will take 4 years for Mulvey to become a major league pitcher with 3+ years' experience, which is what Blanton is. (I suppose he could get called up out of spring training, in which case it would only take 3 years.)

Blanton's already provided a lot of value to the A's, and it will take Mulvey quite some time to match that if he's pitching at more or less the same level. During that time period, there's a very real risk that he could get hurt.

I really don't object to the statement that his ceiling is similar to Blanton's current ceiling. I think he's considerably less likely to reach that ceiling, on account of still being a prospect. I also think that Blanton's ceiling was higher in the 2003 offseason than both his own current ceiling and Mulvey's. (That's pretty natural. Most players who have played 3 years in the majors will have lower ceilings than they did when they were still prospects.)

No, I'm neither. I'm a resultstist.

If the college player is producing the same numbers at a lower level at the same age than the HS school player, he is a worse player.

If the college player is producing the same numbers at the same level at an older age than the HS school player, he is a worse player.

It's too bad for him that he went to college. He shouldn't have.

"Unfortunately, it's hard to have a controlled experiment here. Most GMs and minor league managers are developmentalists (otherwise, why enter the field?); most statheads are emergencists. Seems like analyzing promotion patterns and success rates would make some damned interesting articles for BP or THT, though."

No. The point is that the younger player has more time to develope and learn, before the inevitable physical decline. Nothing to with the Peter principle.

As players age, they acquire more experience, hone their skills. Unfortunately, they also pick up injuries, scar tissue etc. They inevitably decline physically. The younger player has more time to develope before the inevitable physical decline.

A 22 year old at MLB who posts a 100 OPS+ has more time to build on that, than a 24 year old who posts a 100 OPS+ at MLB.

A 21 year old at AAA who posts a 100 OPS+ has more time to build on that, than a 23 old who posts a 1-- OPS+ at AAA.

Let's take a look around the league.

Omar Minaya is seen as a traditional, old-school GM. His predecessors as Mets GM were not stats based either. Under him and his predecessors, the Mets have aggressively pushed their young players through the minors: Reyes, Kazmir, Wright, Milledge, Gomez, Martinez, Guerra are just some examples.

The Braves are seen as the epitome of the old-school scouting approach. They even had a book extolling those virtues written about them. They too have tended to be aggressive in pushing their young players. Jeff Francouer and Brian McCann are 2 examples.

The Mariners. Bill Bavasi has never been described as a stats-based GM. The Mariners, have been maybe, even more aggressive than the Mets at pushing their young player: Adam Jones, Asdrubal Cabrera, Triunfel are some examples.

The Yankees. They have been fairly aggressive with Cano and Cabrera in recent times. To a certain extent, Joba and Kennedy.

It would appear that at least some old-school, and maybe not old school (Cashman), GMs value youth and age to level.

Also, Baseball America, who are known for their non-stats based approach, are notorious / famous for placing lots of emphasis on age to level; in past times, much more emphasis than Baseball Prospectus.