DLD 1-02-08: the new year's first, my first too!
by OaklandSi on Jan 2, 2008 7:12 AM PST
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PrintI figured, what better time to do my first DLD? Mine will be all A's. (Of course, feel free to dump on anything, as I'm sure you will!)
First off: Mychael Urban writes that the A's could surprise in 2008. Sure....there are all kinds of surprises. Anyway, I'm a little surprised he didn't pencil in Eveland or Meyer for the starting rotation, since both are out of options. Also he put Gaudin as #2 in the rotation (way too optimistic, I really doubt he'll be ready for at least the first month of the season following hip and foot surgery).
So much for the big club...passing quickly to prospects reviews:
First Inning offers some thoughts on development of A's prospects and young players
More on the prospects netted for Haren (and Lewis), this time from Ryan and Andrew at A Minor Consideration. The link is to the last of the series of six, but you can click on the links to see the other players.
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NoooOOOoooooooooO....oo....oo!
[gurgle, gurgle]
...ooo!!
[cough, cough]
Please....
remem... [cough, cough]...ber to feed... [wheeze, wheeze] my dogs.
What do you want me to feed your dogs too?
Tigers are popular in the Bay area right now...
This weekend...
I actually had a dream about a large animals stealing plastic spoons from our backyard. It turned out to be tigers, lions, cheetahs, jaguars, cougars, panthers, and mountain lions.
My brother (a gun... aficionado) yells for my mom to bring him the big guns. Mom comes out in a bath robe and her hair in a towel, packing a .50 cal and assault rifles.
My brother and I go Rambo in the backyard. We've got scopes with spotlights, lasers, nightvision, the whole nine.
My brother then fights a panther to rescue my chocolate lab.
Were you wearing your own pants?
It could be.
But one of my friends actually found that online and sent it to me. Apparently, others feel the same way I do.
I should have known
It wasn't done in crayon and no one in their right mind would let you anywhere near something as sharp as a felt tip pen.
It's 1/02/07 again?!
AAAAAAAAAAHHH!!! Do not want! Go the f%#! away, 2007!
Beane signed 2007 to a 3-year extension
We're just gonna keep trotting 2007 out there until it needs back surgery.
I don't understand why 2007 hasn't been indicted.
Well, then, it didn't!
2007 apologizes if anyone was offended
and regrets any appearance of impropriety
Let's just move on,
and not let this be a distraction to the rest of the 21st Century.
Want to buy a raffle ticket
for a 4-bedroom house in Maryland?
Genius!
It will either flop (they need to sell 4,000 tickets) or it will be a huge success. And if you bought it for $100, I guess you won't care that it will be worth $250K in 2011.
I see no IRS problem
They only owe tax on the capital gain, and depending on how long they've owned it, they might not have any gain at all. If they do have a gain and they don't qualify for the exclusion, they pay tax on it just as they would if they sold it directly. Transaction is a little irregular, but no big deal.
Lottery winnings are taxable
and in the case of a house, I believe it is immediately taxable.
Duh. My bad.
For some reason I was thinking only of the seller. Yeah, I can see how that would be a problem for the buyer.
Interesting question, though. I wonder if there's a way around it. Hmm, have to think about that one....
I was actually thinking of the seller
If they sell the house at an inflated value to the charity (which it would be since it hasn't sold for 18 months), then they are reaping tax-free profits (assuming it's been their primary residence for 24 of the past 60 months). Just seems like it would raise a million red flags at the IRS. If it doesn't, I just found the next great tax shelter.
Sorry for the delayed response
I'm still recovering from the Swisher comment-fest.
I've mulled this over a bit now, and you're right that this is more complicated than first meets the eye, but I still don't see a problem with this specific case. My read is that the whole raffle is just a complicated vehicle to complete the sale, and I don't see why the IRS would contest that interpretation.
You agree that there's no problem determining the total amount of income, right? Tally everything up and however much the former homeowners end up with. The real question is characterizing the income: how much is truly a capital gain (and eligible for the exclusion) and how much is really other income that should be fully taxable.
If the sellers somehow ended up with proceeds of $900K from the raffle, then yeah, the IRS would question that. Just like they would if I were to sell my $300K house to a client for $900K. But the housing market is highly variable, and the IRS isn't in the business of judging every transaction and deciding if the price is reasonable. People pay unreasonable amounts for a house all the time. Unless there's reason to believe there's some other kind of compensation hidden within it, I see no reason not to just accept it as the gain on the investment.
Yeah, I can see the possibility of abuse. If you're really running a business that makes money off raffling, you could use a house sale to try to hide some profit. But first of all I think that's a really lame shelter: the sec 121 exclusion is too limited to give you much, and there are easier ways to get profits characterized as capital gains.
More to the point, in this specific case, the homeowner clearly isn't out of line. There's nothing wrong with $390K as a selling price. You say it's been on the market for 18 months, but so what? They've been steadily lowering the price the whole time, too. Eventually it's going to find a buyer, and this fancy sales gimmick is what makes it happen. The article makes it clear that they've capped the number of tickets to be sold for a $390K total. That tells me they have no means of realizing additional profit on the raffle.
I say just keep good records and you'll be just fine.
yep, our 1, per year obligation, now when me, and
you do our random nonsense DLD, we don't have to feel guilty.
by theblackpearl on Jan 2, 2008 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
Help, I'm, suffering from, comma, overdose
I read that as if it's being spoken by
the kid with asthma on Malcolm In the Middle...
some may prefer peppered puppies ...
... but I prefer peppered moths.
Peter Piper packed a pipe of peppered puppies
No more Haiku Friday... Tongue-Twister Wednesday?
(of course, AN being AN, the phrase "tongue-twister" would be snerkingly redefined)
early candidate for word of the year
"snerkingly"
The June swoon?
It was a complete vindication of the peppered month story, he told the meeting.
October is the ...
... Peppard month.
What do you do if your nose goes on strike?
You picket.
What do you do if the Writers Guild of America goes on strike?
Tim Goodman offers a preview look as the late shows return tonight with and without writers.
Leno used to be hip and edgy back in the 80's when he was a guest on Letterman but, man, has he been unwatchable since he took over The Tonight Show. I might have to take a peek for auld lang syne.
Guess that makes me a scab.
Leno... bleh.
Jon Stewart & Stephen Colbert returning Jan. 7!
Sickels Farm Grades
John Sickels finally posts up the grades of the A's
prospects. Carlos Gonzalez gets a B+ as do Daric Barton, Chris Carter, and Brett Anderson. 3 B+s from the Haren trade! Not to mention a B- and C+ from cunningham and smith.
Why is Daric Barton still a "prospect"?
Doesn't have the service time or AB
to knock him from the rookie list.
Ergo, he's a "prospect".
Nope
He only came up near the end of last year.
by Threepwood XX on Jan 2, 2008 11:38 AM PST up reply actions
Speaking of prospects, here is what BA has as the
top 5 teams.
Devito-Ma: Where do Yankees rank behind Rays and Redsox in prospect handbook?
Jim Callis: (3:03 PM ET ) John Manuel has kindly IMed me our Top 5: Devil Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Rangers, Yankees, in that order.
I don't see how the Yankees are top 5.
Yankees' farm system is legit
I haven't really ranked farm systems yet, so I'm not sure that the Yankees are a Top 5 system, but they are probably somewhere close to that. Chamberlain and Kennedy are both major league ready starting pitchers, and Chamberlain has legitimate ace potential. Tabata and Jackson are both very solid CF prospects. Betances and Brackman are high-risk/high-reward guys that are nice to have in a system that has sure things at the top. When you add those guys to other solid prospects like Horne, Garden, Whelan, and the large amount of sleepers their system has, you have at worst a Top 10 system.
by BlameChannel53 on Jan 2, 2008 1:27 PM PST up reply actions
I perform like a well-rested monkey
Unfortunately, HollywoodOz is going to boycott me now.
I already boycott you.
I haven't flung poop in weeks.
Can someone explain how one trade is the most
lopsided, but the other is the most even. The Tiger trade seems more lopsided. Willis was an All-Star and Cabrera is awesome.
Most Lopsided Trade
- The Diamondbacks traded for A's starter Dan Haren, who could give new Arizona teammate Brandon Webb a run for the Cy Young as the two go back-to-back for the next three years. Maybe by the end of the 2010 season, the A's and a couple of the six mostly no-name players they received in this swap will be back to competing.
Most Even Trade
- The biggest trade of the winter, between Florida and Detroit, seems at first glance like a complete hijacking by the Tigers. Detroit landed one of the best young hitters in the game, Miguel Cabrera, and a durable mid-rotation lefty in Dontrelle Willis in the December deal. Florida ended up with a handful of prospects. But know that the Marlins, who made out fine in their last big supposedly franchise-burning swap (getting Hanley Ramirez and many others for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell), got exactly what they wanted in this trade. Mainly, they got younger and cheaper.
Didn't the A's get younger and cheaper as well?
Because Donovan is an idiot
Further justification for me dropping my SI subscription 10 years ago.
when I did the same ...
... I considered it a tacit admission of an initial error in judgment on my part.
Consider the source
SI's group of "analysts" (Donovan, Heyman, and Verducci) is IMO by far the worst group of all the major baseball information sites. I think Florida got a better group of prospects than we got, but they also gave up more than we did. I think both trades were win-win for all parties involved, and calling either one lopsided just because Donovan is too lazy to actually investigate the value that Oakland received is exactly the kind of reactive "analysis" that SI routinely engages in.
by BlameChannel53 on Jan 2, 2008 12:39 PM PST up reply actions
"Marlins trying to get younger and cheaper"
As opposed to the A's, who presumably were trying to get older and more expensive?
No, this is all a misunderstanding
The Tigers have two 5-tool prospects, named Carl Younger and T. Richard Cheaper, whom the Marlins were initially targeting in trade talks.
The A's, on the other hand, were never trying to get Younger or Cheaper.
No, this is all a misunderstanding
Beane, in another example of his broadening entertainment portfolio, is looking to produce a stage revival of The Odd Couple -- and he wants to hire you to co-star as Oscar Madison (the Tony Randall role still needs to be filled, though).
He wants to get Unger and jeepers.
No, this is all a misunderstanding
Beane thinks AN has a liberal bias, so he's recruiting some conservative bloggers.
He wants to get Hinderaker and freepers.
No, this is all a misunderstanding
Beane's luggage got lost on his flight to the winter meeting, and he had lousy cell reception when he called Forst to pick him up some extra clothing.
Beane said he wanted to get underwear and sneakers before the meeting.
No, this is all a misunderstanding
Beane was scouting a young scion of German nobility to play in the nets for the Quakes.
He wanted to get a Junker keeper.
No, this is all a misunderstanding
While scouting the European scion Beane had occasion to explore the roots of his obsession with dispassionate analytics as a means of evaluating young super men.
He wanted to get Junger and deeper.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jan 2, 2008 4:09 PM PST up reply actions
No, this is all a misunderstanding
I didn't get most of these.
by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Jan 2, 2008 4:51 PM PST up reply actions
Good article on BB's "closer" approach
by athleticsBB4life on Jan 2, 2008 1:35 PM PST reply actions
odd statement in there
"Beane seems to have taken a vow of abstinence when it comes to paying for a free agent closer"
Later in the article, Arthur Rhodes magically appears in the A's closer role without being signed as a free agent by Beane.
and Isringhausen
by BlameChannel53 on Jan 2, 2008 2:16 PM PST up reply actions
abstinence-only education doesn't work
Apparently if you pay less than a million for the
player, he doesn't count as a free agent.
Or something.
"Third option?" Just what kind of athletics ...
... are we advocating here?
sickels
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story...
- Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Grade B+
- Daric Barton, 1B, Grade B+
- Brett Anderson, LHP, Grade B+
- Chris Carter, 1B, Grade B+ (an aggressive grade but I LOVE this guy)
- James Simmons, RHP, Grade B
- Henry Alberto Rodriguez, RHP, Grade B (big-time sleeper, great arm)
- Trevor Cahill, RHP, Grade B-
- Aaron Cunningham, OF, Grade B-
- Corey Brown, OF, Grade B-
- Andrew Bailey, RHP, Grade B- (another sleeper with an aggressive grade)
- Sean Doolittle, 1B, Grade B-
- Javier Herrera, OF, Grade C+ (great tools, but refinement??)
- Dan Meyer, LHP, Grade C+
- Greg Smith, LHP, Grade C+
- Sam Demel, RHP, Grade C+
- Andrew Carignan, RHP, Grade C+
- Grant Desme, OF, Grade C+
- Travis Banwart, RHP, Grade C+
- Josh Horton, SS, Grade C+
- Jermaine Mitchell, OF, Grade C
Grade C guys interchangeable with some above include Jeff Baisley, Graham Godfrey, Dan Hamblin, Aaron Jenkins, Brad Kilby, Vince Mazzaro, Kevin Melillo, Cliff Pennington, Landon Powell (who could be a Grade B if he could stay healthy), Jason Ray, Richie Robnett, Justin Sellers, and the enigmatic Matt Sulentic.
oops, i didn't see this above
It actually makes sense
He's only given out like 10 A's total.
This is not your typical "high school class" grading system...
There are a couple of just flatly inexplicable omissions, though. There's literally no way that Brad Kilby can be rated ahead of Jerry Blevins. Leon apparently slipped under his radar screen, which is somewhat excusable, but what about Petit? He's got to be better than Cliff Pennington at this point...
A's youngsters seem way undervalued to me atm...
Cust, Buck, Gaudin, Eveland, Suzuki, Barton, etc...even Blanton
No one seems to think these guys are likely to improve, but rather that they will regress. I'm sure these projection systems are just playing the odds dictated by formula, but especially with a guy like Buck, anyone watching him play would know just how well he sees and contacts the ball and how likely it is that he will improve quickly. The guy raced through the minors afterall.
Some of these guys will fail, but I'm sick of them getting the prospective shaft because they don't have the superstar ceiling potential of other prospects. It reminds me of capital investment, in which investors shy away from promising mid-sized plans because the reward can only be so great, but guess what -- its still a valuable reward if it works out.
by SwisherSweet on Jan 2, 2008 3:56 PM PST reply actions
That 'first inning' page is bizarre.
Whoever did those grades seems to have no idea about the players they're grading.
Everidge has the same power numbers as Pennington? Not hardly.
Windsor has worse control than Braden? In what Bizarro World?
Myron Leslie is a second baseman? I've seen him play 1st base, 3rd base, and left field - but second? He has all the range of the 2007 version of Barry Larkin.
Gustavo Rosendo is in the system mostly to serve as interpreter for pitchers at his level that don't speak English and has never hit anything, anywhere, ever, yet according to 1stInning, he has the same talent as Everidge.
And if Brad Kilby is the ultimate strikeout pitcher, I'm Dutch.
Jose Guzman a better pitcher than Vince Mazzaro and Jason Fernandez? (head explodes)
Yeah
I was confused by that page as well. I didn't even bother reading all of it.
stick your head in the olfactometer
Unfortunately, the Interactive Odor Setback Model developed by this dude isn't (yet) calibrated to tell you all how far away from me you have to move.
(Nor, to preempt FSU, can it tell you just how far away from the capitalist pigs you'll have to move to avoid the stench of the new Fremont stadium.)
Brad Ziegler
I don't know if this has been mentioned earlier but Mr. Ziegler is going to be a non-roster invitee to the A's major league camp this spring.
So sayeth Scout.com. I'd link but 'tis insider content.
According to the Cube, he pitched one inning
Let's hope his cup of coffee is a little less "Starbucks espresso-esque" next season...
How much time each day do you spend
looking up all of this info, Paul? You certainly do know a lot about the A's farm system as well as the current team. Thanks for sharing your knowledge.
TheBaseballCube
A must have on the ol' speed dial.
Ziegler's link.
He got a taste last year when the A's had a split squad game and needed some extra bodies.
Clemens: (Hook 'Em) Horns of a Dilemna
On the one hand, Clemens appears to want to fight the PED accusations in the court of public opinion. He's made statements, a youtube video, and on Sunday he's gonna let Mike Wallace have at him on 60 Minutes. Of course, at age 89 Mike may have lost a little off his fastball, but still, Clemens is resisting mightily where most other players have either remained silent or quasi-confessed.
On the other hand, as this interesting analysis suggests, if Clemens goes on TV and calls his accuser ex-trainer Brian McNamee a liar, Roger is then subject to legal action, and deposition. It's once thing to lie to a reporter, and quite another (as a Mr. Bonds or Ms. Jones would tell you) to lie under oath.
I'm torn...I so want the self-congratulatory anti-steroid jihad to recede, yet I relish the idea of Roger Clemens being tarnished and feathered. What's a principled reprobate to do?
Not if the HOF voters Add It Up
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jan 2, 2008 7:33 PM PST up reply actions
Well in the new speed-free era
He'd be the (ethically) Blind Leading the (playing) Naked.
OK, that was a stretch; I Know It's True But I'm Sorry To Say
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jan 2, 2008 7:49 PM PST up reply actions
if he acted on rage brought on by taking ...
... a substance intended for a woman, would that make him a ...
blister in the sun?
<too lazy to make a joke that makes any sense>
by rubin sierra on Jan 2, 2008 10:43 PM PST up reply actions
Can I change my vote? :(
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