Emil Brown
by MoneyManWilliam on Jan 11, 2008 5:49 PM PST
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PrintLooks like we signed him to a 1.45 million dollar deal (can make .05 million in performance bonuses).
Is the deal worth it?
I think signing Brown allows us to keep some of new prospects in AAA if needed...don't want to start that arbitration clock too early.
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I don't like the signing
The signing only makes sense if the A's are planning on using Brown to keep Gonzalez in the minors. If Cargo is ready by mid season, Brown is out. If Cargo is ready in September, well, he gets his sep call up.
Basically, Brown will serve the Kielty role, except that like Kielty, he will get most of his AB's vs RHP because managers are idiots.
Are you telling me that there was NO ONE floating around in AAA somewhere with pronounced platoon splits that couldn't put up an OPS above .650 for us?
Seriously...Cargo??
Cmon.
by OaktownPower on Jan 11, 2008 11:25 PM PST up reply actions
So when he becomes a star
will we call his fan section the CarGo Cult?
That's a fine price
Brown should be able to fill Bobby Kielty's role from last season (playing against lefties, filling in in case of injury, and giving guys the occasional day off) for less money and with less risk of getting injured himself. And he might be a chip for a team looking for a platoon bat at the deadline.
I give this signing my Official Seal of Approval (TM).
I'd rather find the corpse of Matt Watson
throw him out there, and pay him $300k and use that $$$ to spend on draft picks, than have Emil Brown play out there.
The A's have plenty of money
to spend on draft picks... seriously, this is a non-issue at this point.
This only confirms that
the A's are trading Kotsay next Monday. The Atlanta deal is on, the A's will send $5 million to Atlanta and get a AA prospect, maybe even a AAA prospect, who knows? Clearly Brown has no long term value, but will play against lefties and give Denofria a real shot at center.
by china bob on Jan 11, 2008 6:07 PM PST up reply actions
KC also had the brilliant
idea of using Emil Brown as a trade chip the last several seasons.
More like a nacho chip.
why not just use Putnam in this role?
If we're flushing Putnam down the crapper, we could have just kept him on the 40-man and had not much of a perf drop for 1/5 the price.
I know that a mill is chump change in the larger scheme of things, but I just don't see the point of this move.
He's left-handed
As far as I can tell, that's Brown's entire advantage-- but given the current roster status, it's not an insignificant one.
Gah-- pronouns again
Putnam is left-handed, Brown is right-handed. Right now the A's would rather their backup outfielder be right-handed.
which I still don't understand
I mean, I understand your imputation of Beane's logic, but not why Beane would bother with this. Brown'll get, what, maybe 300 PAs? 200? If he plays down to his mediocre perf level, 50? I'd rather run Crosby out there in CF to see if he could develop some more trade value.
Right now the A's would rather their backup outfielder be 5x as expensive as necessary.
Billy, if you're reading this, and you have another spare million sitting around in the budget, I take PayPal. I'll even abandon the front-page post I already have written for tomorrow and post something laudatory.
Here's my best guess
and it doesn't involve Crosby in the outfield. (I'm really not sure why that would increase his trade value. Defense isn't his problem.)
I think it's a bet on Brown being good enough to flip at the deadline. Judging from the attention Kotsay's getting, an iffy outfielder who's had good MLB numbers in the past can run up to a B prospect in value if the team trading him will take on most of his contract (or if he's cheap to begin with). If the bet pays off, it will end up costing the A's about $800K over the minimum (I say "about" because he might be acquired after July 31) to acquire a decent prospect.
Because I'm writing this and I want to make the math work, I'm arbitrarily assigning a value of ~$1.9M million to a B prospect with a year or two of minor league seasoning under his belt. So if the bet hits, the team gets a $1.9 million asset for $800K-- and if it misses, the team is out $1.1 million (since someone would have to play and make the $400K minimum anyway). Even-odds bet, right? So if Brown has more than a 50% chance of hitting well enough to have some value for a contender, it's a good bet to take.
I'll buy that for a dollar
If he finishes the season in Oakland with >300 PAs, I want my dollar back, though.
Underestimating Brown
Emil Brown is not Dee Brown. Take a look at his stats. Once you throw out last April, when he batted .186, he's a .280 hitter or better over the last three seasons. He's essentially Shannon Stewart with a better arm (he's a right fielder), a slightly lower batting average, and slightly more power. He's also a hell of a lot cheaper.
A lot of things change over the course of a season. There are injuries, and players don't make it. If it turns out that Denorfia is ready and that Sweeney suddenly gets the power stroke everyone expected at the end of 2006, and Buck stays healthy all year, then Brown becomes a back-up outfielder who plays often enough to give the young guys a break.
But that probably won't happen, and Brown will wind up with over 450 AB, and people will be gushing over what a steal this signing was.
by richwol on Jan 11, 2008 6:30 PM PST up reply actions
who said I wanted Stewart back?
I don't see any reasons in there to prefer him over Putnam for a backup role on a rebuilding/.500-at-best team.
Emil Brown
I've seen him play more LF than RF. I've also seen him butcher a few in LF vs. the A's (2006)
by Colorado Fan on Jan 12, 2008 8:29 AM PST up reply actions
Putman projects to OPS about 100 points lower
CHONE
Putnam: .231/.294/.353
Brown: .267/.331/.400
Zips
Putnam: .236/.298/.363
Brown:.268/.332/.392
Don't know about CHONE
but ZIPS projections are park adjusted.
KC is a slight hitter's park, Oakland is a pretty extreme pitcher's park. Brown's Oakland projection is going to look worse than that.
Who says we're flushing Putnam down the crapper?
I assume this is a calculated gamble that Putnam has a decent chance to clear waivers.
By the way, if we really are unloading Kotsay soon, this DFA only makes sense if Beane is expecting to add yet another name to the 40-man roster, whether in the Kotsay trade or as a separate signing. I can't believe they couldn't postpone Emil Brown's signing a few more days so that he takes Kotsay's spot instead. The way I see it, they must have someone else in mind for Kotsay's spot; otherwise there's no reason to DFA Putnam.
One B. Lamar Bonds, perchance?
ZiPs says .268/.332/.392
Average in RF, which means he'd be bad in CF. This sounds like a rotten acquisition. Fortunately it's not likely to matter much.
Hi all from Royals Review
I see you signed Emil Brown today. Just remember, every time he hits one out of the park, you yell, "It's not a snack. It's Emil!"
I wrote up an analysis of Emil Brown's three years in KC. Maybe it belongs on this site now:
I am actually one of the few Royals fans who pretty well liked Emil and wish him well. His contract terms make him a good risk I believe.
Yeah, Brown was not hurt last year.
I have no idea why he did so poorly, but as far as I know his dive was not due to any injury. At least he never said he was hurt last year.
great read
Thanks for jumping over and posting. I didn't know much about Emil before reading that, so it was quite helpful.
by Eric in Atlanta on Jan 12, 2008 9:32 AM PST up reply actions
No problem Eric,
I'm glad you liked the breakdown.
KC never really warmed to Emil and I think very few fans will miss him. I think this is mostly due to those factors I wrote about in the linked story. If taken just on his actual on-field performance Emil was under appreciated in KC from 2005 -2006, so when he struggled in 2007 a big "drive Brown out of town" bandwagon formed pretty quickly. That said, I don't think offering him arbitration would have been a smart move. He is not a good $4M player, but I do think at $1.5M he is a very good gamble. The guy has skills.
by James Quinn on Jan 12, 2008 10:05 AM PST up reply actions
Emil Brown is a scrub
PERIOD
No upside. He might get "flipped" for some magic beans!
by GrewUpAtTheColiseum on Jan 11, 2008 7:41 PM PST reply actions
I recommended this post
just to prove to FSU that it only takes one recommendation to make the list.
(Yeah, I know. Now someone is going to spoil the experiment by adding a second....)
Is Street next?
Scary thing is they're talking about trading Kotsay for a AAA closer. Looks like Huston Street is next to go.
As Eric Byrnes said on KNBR the other day, anyone who's still buying into for the A's isn't rooting for them to win, they're rooting for them to make money.
by Alan in SF on Jan 12, 2008 4:54 PM PST reply actions
do you know the other
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