2008 A's Roster Dead Pool
by monkeyball on Sep 8, 2007 8:47 AM PDT
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PrintSo you think you know what Billy Beane’s up to?
Well, take another look.
Here’s the A’s current 40-man roster.
Dollars to donuts that doesn’t remain static from now until April 2008.
Which means that not only is Beane likely to bring in some new talent (whether on the cheap or through the nose ... or merely off the 60-day DL) – he’s also got to jettison some players.
Lay your guesses, ladies and gents, for the 2008 A’s Roster Dead Pool. Who do you think are the five players currently on the 40-man roster who most likely will not be on it as of Opening Day 2008? (Not, I might add, who you’d like to see cast adrift on an ice floe < cough > Kotsay <cough>.) We’ll check back in with our guesses in the spring.
[Full roster list and my guesses after the jump.]
And the A's take on the Rangers again tonight at 5:05 PT.
Note that players on the 60-day DL are not on the current 40-man roster: Buck, Chavez, Duke, Harden, Denorfia, and Snelling. It’s going to be a busy spring.
Current 40-Man Roster
Pitchers
- Joe Blanton
- Dallas Braden
- Andrew Brown
- Kiko Calero
- Santiago Casilla
- Lenny DiNardo
- Alan Embree
- Ron Flores
- Chad Gaudin
- Brad Halsey
- Dan Haren
- Shane Komine
- Colby Lewis
- Ruddy Lugo
- Jay Marshall
- Dan Meyer
- Connor Robertson
- Huston Street
- Jason Windsor
Catchers
- Rob Bowen
- Adam Melhuse
- Kurt Suzuki
Infielders
- Bobby Crosby
- Mark Ellis
- J.J. Furmaniak
- Jack Hannahan
- Dan Johnson
- Kevin Melillo
- Donnie Murphy
- Marco Scutaro
Outfielders
- Dee Brown
- Jeff DaVanon
- Javier Herrera
- Mark Kotsay
- Danny Putnam
- Shannon Stewart
- Nick Swisher
- Kevin Thompson
Designated Hitters
- Jack Cust
- Mike Piazza
My guess for the five most likely to be off the 40-man by Opening Day?
- Lewis (will pitch his way off the roster in ST)
- Marshall (with a decent stable of lefties in the ’pen and Marshall’s Rule Fiveitude having been served, he’ll be in AA or AAA for seasoning but not on the 40-man)
- Melhuse (c’mon; this one’s a gimme)
- Halsey (combination of injury, attitude, and unmarketability will have him let go [or moved to the 60-day DL] relatively early in ST)
- Dee Brown (probably the lowest ceiling of any of our hydra of OF options)
Yeah, that’s right: I have a bad feeling that:
- Piazza may have underhit his way to continued affordability in ’08
- Beane will overvalue both Stewart and Scutaro and will sign each of them to a near-fair-market-value contract
- Ellis, while a possible and attractive trade candidate, will have his option exercised and perhaps even be extended
(My habitually tragicomic approach leads me to guess that Beane is going to pull a modified Sabean in ’08: opting for predictable, familiar, moderately priced veterans mixed in with a smattering of not highly promising youngsters. He’ll neither rebuild nor spend deeply on reinforcements.)
Give us your guesses for the 5 most likely in comments, please.
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My guesses
Melhuse
Piazza
Dee Brown
Furmaniak
DaVanon
Halsey
Who will all be replaced by the six people currently on the 60-day DL, which means that, dollars to donuts, this roster is going to look exactly the same next year, unless Beane can figure out a way to dump Kotsay and Crosby.
On second thought
A 7th player is going to have to go to make room for Daric Barton on the 40-man, since I believe he will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next year. I think that will be Calero.
my top ten gone
- Colero- Arbitration year and arm injury gone
- Ron Flores
- Brad Halsey-arm injury
- Colby Lewis-no arbitration worth a spot
- Adam melhuse
- Dee Brown
- Mike Piazza-no where to play with Cust
- Jeff Davanon- to many outfielders
- Kevin thompson- same as above
- Shannon Stewart- depends if the A's resign him
only five?
that's easy: Piazza, Stewart, Halsey, Melhuse, Brown.
Here's five more: DaVanon, Lewis, Lewis, Calero, DJ
I tried to mention those who I
expected would not be on the 40 man list, and not necessarily only those I thought shouldn't be on it.
I looked at the poll list
and figured they'd all be gone.
by The Pilots Dared Me To Die on Sep 8, 2007 10:09 AM PDT reply actions
I get the feeling
that Shannon Stewart is going to be re-signed. Not sure how happy I am about it, but I think he can be reupped a la Jay Payton for about 4 or 5 million for a year. I don't see other GMs falling over themselves to sign a corner outfielder with minus power and a noodle arm, nor do I see Stewart pushing too hard for the best deal he can get.
He is the kind of player who can get a hit off a good pitcher, though, which I think is a skill the A's sorely lack.
DJ and Scutaro aren't going anywhere...
Stewart will be too expensive. He's gone. Don't need Piazza... he's gone. If Billy can find a creative way to dump Kotsay, he will be gone. Don't know if he's that creative, though.
All the rest on the poll list will be gone as well.
I'm hoping Kotsay will retire
but it would be awfully hard for him to give up $8M. Very few players have walked away because they didn't feel they would earn the money--Mark McGwire is the only one that comes to mind.
He won't retire...
I certainly wouldn't, if I were in his shoes. If Billy wants rid of him, he'll undoubtedly have to eat at least half next year's salary, but that's better than paying him the full salary and having him play in half the games in '08 before Billy's forced to "Kendall" him.
by FoolshGame22 on Sep 8, 2007 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Probably so.
There's really nothing Beane can do, unless he somehow catches fire next year. I'd be shocked if that happens--I think he's done, with a reoccurrence of that back injury. Nobody will take that contract, even for nothing in return.
I agree with both you and Foolsh
Though I don't think picking up half Kotsay's contract will get anything done. If Beane wants him gone, he'll have to DFAiza him.
Makes sense.
He seems to be very family-oriented, and probably recognizes that further aggravating a back problem would be very bad for his post-baseball life. That's the main source of my thinking about hanging it up, whether this year or next. Maybe he'll be comfortable with the idea of being a backup outfielder next year as a result.
it's less of a question of threatening his
health than it is whether he can be a MLB player with a bad back. At 90%, he can't start. At 85%, he can't play (even when Swisher or T.Buck are the other options in center). Baseball's too tough to play with a bad back.
My 5 players that will be gone...
- Mike Piazza
- Adam Melhuse
- Dan Johnson
- Jeff DaVannon
- Shannon Stewart
This would be my 25/40 man roster going into ST
barring any FA signings. A few "trades" but with no idea who'd we get back, if anyone....
- C1 Kurt Suzki
- 1B Daric Barton
- 2B Mark Ellis
- 3B Eric Chavez
- SS Bobby Crosby
- LF Travis Buck
- CF Chris Denorfia
- RF Nick Swisher
- DH Jack Cust
- C2 Jeremey Brown
- SS Donnie Murphy
- 3B Jack Hanahan
- OF Chris Snelling
- OF Kevin Thompson
- SP Dan Haren
- SP Rich Harden
- SP Joe Blanton
- SP Chad Gaudin
- SP Dan Meyer
- RP Huston Street
- RP Alan Embree
- RP Justin Duchscherer
- SP Lenny DiNardo
- RP Andrew Brown
- RP Santiago Casilla
- SP Dallas Braden
- RP Connor Robertson
- SP Colby Lewis
- OF Danny Putnam
- IF Kevin Melillo
- SP Shane Komine
- RP Jay Marshall
- SP Mike Madsen
- OF Javier Herrera
- SP Jason Windsor
- SP Brad Halsey
- RP Ron Flores
- C1 Landon Powell
- SS Gregorio Petit
- SS JJ Furmaikiak
I'm really enjoying the responses so far
This is actually a pretty challenging endeavor, because (a) Beane obviously has to get rid of a fair number of guys off the 40-man, (b) he's indicated he's generally happy with the club as he put it together this year and likely isn't making significant additions, (c) there's a number of guys on the roster who will get unduly expensive in '08, (d) yet those unduly expensive guys seem to be Beane favorites, (e) the cheaper/more productive options (DJ and the slew of utility infielders and the passel of replacement-level OFs) are going to squeeze each other out, and (f) there's a fair amount of suckitude on the roster.
My one follow-up question so far: all you folks who think Piazza is definitely gone (and that seems to be the consensus so far), where do you think he goes (Angels? Twins? Padres?), and for how much (1y/$6M?)?
Retirement.
I don't think he likes being a DH very much, and there's no way an NL team will sign him.
On second thought
If he really is OK with continuing his career as a DH after this experimental year, the only teams for whom he would fill a need are:
Devil Rays
Orioles
Twins
Royals
Rangers
In other words, will he really want to play for a team that has no chance of winning? You could argue the Twins do, although I think they're in the same boat as the A's for the immediate future--essentially, a .500 team that will do better than that if they catch some breaks.
Why would an NL team pick up Piazza?
As a pinch-hitter, back-up catcher? Not for $6 million. Are there any AL teams that have a DH with less power?
The Angels? Why would they want him?
by FoolshGame22 on Sep 8, 2007 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions
so you're with jeepers? he'll retire?
I agree with your assessment -- all of which makes it likely he'll be cheap enough for Beane to re-sign him for far less than this year's contract.
If the A's aren't projecting to be a 92-win team next year, Piazza might be Beane's most cost-effective RH PH/DH/backup-backup-backup C option.
I don't really want him back next year (though for <$2M I wouldn't object), but I think Beane might.</p>
His presence stunts the development of our team.
There's no amount of cost effectiveness that makes keeping him worth doing.
in principle, I agree about the development issue
We're still rather short on RH power, though, and if Cust's platoon split keeps increasing like it did as this year wore on, and if (much bigger if) Piazza isn't done ... well, he could be a useful cheap option, and wouldn't actually "steal" PAs from guys who need them.
As I say, I'm not really convinced of the pro-Piazza-in-08 argument myself, but I can see Beane convincing himself of it.
I think we need to see
if Cust can be a 162 game DH. That would be a big piece of the puzzle moving forward. Piazza has done broadcast work in the past, and loves to talk, so I could see him deciding to just get started on that, even though he probably believes (and is correct) that he could have a couple more decent years as a DH. I think he has too much pride to agree to be a part-time player for anybody.
jeepers...
Cust leads this crappy team in HR's and RBI. Had he started in April, he'd probably be a 30/100 guy this year. I'm convinced he's our best option at DH, even if you still need 162 games to prove it. ;-)
by FoolshGame22 on Sep 8, 2007 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions
He may still be a 30/100 guy this year.
Well, at least the 30 part--in order to drive in 100 runs, you need teammates who can actually reach base. I never said he wasn't our best option; clearly, he is. I don't think you can say with certainty he's the solution, since he's only had one full years in the bigs, that's all. Many players have had one good big league season, and never repeated it. But there's a very good chance he is that solution.
Cust is my favorite current A, but ...
... his platoon split has just gotten wider and wider as the season went on, and as unique a hitter as he is, as salb918 pointed out recently, no one's ever been able to repeat/sustain the BABIP he's posted this year.
What's more, Cust was recently quoted as saying that he wanted to work on protecting the plate better with 2 strikes -- which could contribute to his establishing a more consistent/sustainable baseline performance, or could work against the consistency of his plate discipline and strike recognition.
Out of anyone on the current 40-man, yes, absolutely, Cust is the best DH option right now; I think JP was arguing more that we need to see what Cust does over a full season as the FT DH before we say that he's the solution for '09-11.
oh, i thought the premise of your diary was...
Roster '08. Hey, Cust may not be the best long-term option (even though, I think he will be), but Cust will be our DH in '08. If Cust does somehow figure out a better 2-strike approach during the offseason, that mofo will be f**king unstoppable and will be here for years to come.
by FoolshGame22 on Sep 8, 2007 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
I love Jack Cust
I think that the "Jack Cust Baseball Academy" shirts should be in the right field bleachers all season long.
by Athletics fan and runner on Sep 8, 2007 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions
my first inclination was, indeed, retirement...
but, there will probably be some team that will take a flyer on him at some price. I certainly hope it's not the A's. I'm really not in the mood for an Eric Karros redux.
by FoolshGame22 on Sep 8, 2007 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
One DH with less power
would be Jose Vidro, who is only slugging .389. But he's been at least somewhat useful due to his .376 OBP. He and Ichiro are the only two players on that hacking club with OBP>.355. M's are on the hook for Vidro's contract too.
I wonder what the 25-man will be next year.
My guess:
C Suzuki
1B Barton
2B Ellis
SS Crosby (but they better make him compete with Murphy)
3B Chavez
RF Swisher
CF Buck (even though I just said he isn't a center fielder)
LF Stewart
DH Cust
C Bowen
INF Scutaro
INF Murphy
OF Kotsay
OF Denorfia or Thompson
SP Harden (for at least a week or two, anyway)
SP Haren
SP Blanton
SP Gaudin
SP DiNardo (unless Meyer tears the roof off the sucka in spring training)
RP Street
RP Duchscherer
RP Embree
RP Brown
RP Casilla
RP Robertson
That's a depressingly mediocre baseball team.
betcha DJ starts at 1st over Barton...
and, that Stewart's not on the team. Not so sure the bullpen will look anything like that, either.
by FoolshGame22 on Sep 8, 2007 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions
God, I hope not.
I'm so very sick and tired of Dan Johnson. If they don't go with Barton, for which I could see a rationale, I hope they just put Swisher at first, and give one of their outfield options a shot.
I like stewart
But I just don't see a reason to re-sign him given the glut of Ofers that we will have that are likely to do what he can do.
by Athletics fan and runner on Sep 8, 2007 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions
well
there are a few more id like to see go, but heres my top 5: halsy, piazza, dee brown, LEWIS, and DJ.
by jackcustismyhero32 on Sep 8, 2007 12:16 PM PDT reply actions
One can always dream.
I'd settle for him unleashing the speed he has. When you think that Byrnes was arguably faster when he was here, yet never put up that kind of total, you have to wonder how many bases a guy like Bobby Crosby could steal if he was allowed to run.
why does that surprise you, jeepers?
the guy was clearly capable of it when he was with the A's. Just because the A's were (are) too stupid to use speed as a weapon, doesn't mean Byrnes couldn't have stolen 50 bases a year with them, too.
Your man-love for Byrnes notwithstanding
Nearly doubling your previous career high in a statistical category (25, set while not with the A's) qualifies as surprising.
well, he really only had one opportunity...
to post those 25 steals... and, that was last year with the Dbacks, when even they weren't sure of his full capabilities. Once they became comfortable in his abilities, they turned him loose. The same would have happened in Oakland given a smarter front office.
So much will go
Right now the A's have 6 guys on the 60-day DL, so the forty man roster has 46 guys on it.
And then protecting Petit and Barton as well from the rule 5 will have to happen. Will Robnett also get a spot on the 40 man? I'd guess yes.
So, we're going to see a ton of turnover.
top fifteen gone in order:
- Adam Melhuse
- Dee Brown
- Piazza
- DaVanon
- Furmainak
- Halsey
- Lewis
- Komine
- Thompson
- Lugo
- Flores
- Calero
- Stewart
- Snelling
- Robertson
Robnett doesn't need a spot on the 40 man yet
I don't think he's an option for 2008.
but this is the year to protect the 2004 college
draftees. That's one of the reasons (I believe) why we saw Braden, Robertson, Melillo, and Putnam come up, because they'd have to be added at the end of the year anyway, might as well get a leg up on the evaluation process.
Not with the new CBA
Teams get an extra year before needing to protect their prospects. Any 18 year old drafted in 2002 needs to be protected and any 19 (or older) year old from the 2003 draft needs to be protected.
also
Does Powell get protected? He'd be an easy rule 5 selection for somebody since he could stay on the DL the whole year next year. Other guys: Blasi, Gray, Everidge, Leslie... I'd say no on all of them except maybe Blasi. I have no idea if the A's think his CF dfense is legit or not.
A way you could finesse that
Put Crosby on the 60-day DL now, and put Powell on the big-league roster. Then, move him to the 60-day during the offseason.
Right
you commit to paying him extra money if you protect him on the 40 man and DL him, but it's probably worth it.
I still don't know where to play Powell
but he has the kind of bat we need, so I'd keep him. There's always the slim chance someone will get hurt and open up a position for him.
So, should we start a pool on Kurt Suzuki's injury? Will he get hit by a pitch? A bus? A comet?
yeah
I figure there's only a %30 chance he comes back strong enough from the injury to be able to be a back-up catcher/pinch hitter/DH/whatever with the kind of pop he was showing this year. But if he does come back, he'll still be a real asset. In this case, there is no opportunity cost, just a monetary cost of paying him 40 man money to sit on ice.
I was just thinking that
I was just thinking as a read the previous comment that it would be a boon for Robnett if instead of speading a year rehabing at AAA money he spent a year rehabing at the major league min.
Sweet.
by Athletics fan and runner on Sep 8, 2007 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Petit is probably worth protecting.
In that case, my final list is:
Melhuse
Piazza
Dee Brown
Furmaniak
DaVanon
Halsey
Calero
Lewis
My turn
In no particular order...
Piazza
Melhuse
Dee Brown
Furmaniak
Halsey
Lugo
Komine
If Beane's smart the following will join the departed list:
Calero
Scutaro
Stewart
Flores and Lewis are on the bubble.
Don't forget the rule V draft.
Oakland needs to protect Powell, Melillo, Robnett or risk having them drafted in the Rule V draft. Counting those on the 60 day DL, that makes nine players that will either have to be place on the 40 man roster or lost. This off season will see many many transactions.
Wouldn't bother protecting Robnett.
If grover's correct, it isn't an issue anyway, but if someone wants to waste a big league roster spot on him next year, more power to them.
That was my point regarding Powell,
Robnett, Gray, Blasi, et al.
Melillo is already protected, as is Putnam, as is Connor Robertson, as is Windsor, as is Braden, as is Street, as is Suzuki.
A much better draft than 2003 was for us, despite Powell, Putnam, and Robnett being somewhat disappointing to this point
Incorrect
Melillo is already on the 40 man, the A's would (I'm pretty sure) have to expose him to waivers to take him off the 40 man. That's probably not going to happen.
Neither Powell or Robnett NEED to be placed on the 40 man for next season. The new CBA granted teams an extra year before they had to protect their prospects. Any college player drafted in 2004 is still under team control regardless of them being on the 40 man roster.
OT: good sports day
Tiger vying with Stricker for the BMW and lead in FedEx Cup.
Looking like a good day for the Pac-10:
Cal going to win.
Washington going to beat Bosie State
Oregon ahead and looking to give Michigan its second straight loss.
Too early to crown Washington
There's a lot of time left in that game. I'm watching the Oregon game right now. Boy, does Michigan look terrible. How could they get that much worse so fast?
Oregon State was terrible on Thursday though
They really got it handed to them by Cincinnati, and on national television too. That hurts Cal, because it makes it look like the middle of the Big East is better than the middle of the Pac-10, both to the voters and the computers.
Thank goodness for the Cal defense. The offense spent 3 quarters misfiring but the defense hasn't given Colorado State anything in the second half. And Jahvid Best...wow.
I wish the Raiders could somehow get Best...
for next year. LOL
Gotta love all these Cal rushing averages, though:
Car YDS AVG TD LG
DeSean Jackson 2 78 39.0 1 73
Thomas DeCoud 2 73 36.5 1 64
Jahvid Best 2 73 36.5 1 64
Heh. "DeCoud" = Best
DeCoud is a defensive back. The confusion there is that he and Best both wear uniform #4.
Bears get a couple of key first downs and hang on for the 34-28 win after letting CSU back in the game with the blown coverage and then the successful onside kick.
I heard the Michigan chose to play Appalacha
state because their offense was similar to Oregons. Looks like the plan backfired TWICE! Ouch. I am excited for a full healthy season from Crosby, Kotsay, Chavez, and dare I say, Harden. I really think we are very competitive with these guys playing healthy.
I would claim they're letting students ...
... play -- but they're playing way too stoopidly for that. I think they need some fuck lions.
by The Dogfather on Sep 8, 2007 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions
OK, so another follow-up question for the horde
Given the absolute necessity of clearing out something like 9 spots on the 40-man simply to accommodate the 60-day DL players and protect the high prospies from the Rule 5 (not even counting any roster additions Beane makes in the offseason) ... then what are we to make of Beane's supposed "competitive edge" in gaming the 40-man roster during the season?
Did it really give the A's any sort of edge on the field?
On the bottom line?
Coming into the offseason?
My 5;
Embree,
Halsey,
Piazza,
Melhuse,
&
Dee Brown.
I think that Brown, Halsey, and Melhuse are gimmies.
I think that there is no reason to resign Piazza even if he is affordable. We now have Cust and I think that the number of games caught over the years and his age indicate that a bounce back to anything near career average form is very unlikely.
Dee Brown is a replacement level player and I have to believe that a 40 man roster spot is going to be needed more than a replacement level outfielder at some point.
by Athletics fan and runner on Sep 8, 2007 3:05 PM PDT reply actions
Haven't read the other comments yet:
My top 5:
- Halsey - injured, out of options, unhappy with organization
- Melhuse - arb-eligible, not playing now
- Lewis - ditto. Possible minor league contract.
- Dee Brown - ditto, ditto.
- Piazza - won't pick up his expensive option with Cust, Johnson, and Barton as possible DHs.
also near certainties:
- DaVanon - Free agent. Again, possibly back on a minor league contract.
- Calero - arb-eligible and hurt.
- Flores - out of options and not even being used now.
- (not currently on the 40-man roster anyway) Snelling is also arb-eligible and probably not worth a roster spot at this point, as much as I would like to see him succeed.
Marshall will be in the minors, but would have to pass through waivers to be taken off the 40-man roster, and the A's won't do that after having wasted a 25-man roster spot on him all year.
Agree on Marshall
And I guess I should have mentioned Snelling, but since he isn't on the current 40 man I ignored him. Snelling gets let go.
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